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7/21/2019 FOUNDATIONS OF TECHNICAL ANALYSIS BY Andrew W.Lo.pdf
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N B E R W O R K I N G P A P E R S E R I E S
F O U N D A T I O N S O F T E C H N I C A L A N A L Y S I S :
C O M P U T A T I O N A L A L G O R I T H M S , S T A T I S T I C A L
I N F E R E N C E , A N D E M P I R I C A L I M P L E M E N T A T I O N
A n d r e w W . L o
H a r r y M a m a y s k y
J i a n g W a n g
W o r k i n g P a p e r 7 6 1 3
h t t p : / / w w w . n b e r . o r g / p a p e r s / w 7 6 1 3
N A T I O N A L B U R E A U O F E C O N O M I C R E S E A R C H
1 0 5 0 M a s s a c h u s e t t s A v e n u e
C a m b r i d g e , M A 0 2 1 3 8
M a r c h 2 0 0 0
T h i s r e s e a r c h w a s p a r t i a l l y s u p p o r t e d b y t h e M I T l a b o r a t o r y f o r F i n a n c i a l E n g i n e e r i n g , M e r r i l l L y n c h , a n d
t h e N a t i o n a l S c i e n c e F o u n d a t i o n ( G r a n t N o . S B R - 9 7 0 9 9 7 6 ) . W e t h a n k R a l p h A c a m p o r a , F r a n k l i n A l l e n ,
S u s a n B e r g e r , M i k e E p s t e i n , N a r a s i m h a n J e g a d e e s h , E d K a o , D o u g S a n z o n e , J e f f S i m o n o f f , T o m S t o k e r , a n d
s e m i n a r p a r t i c i p a n t s a t t h e F e d e r a l R e s e r v e B a n k o f N e w Y o r k , N Y U , a n d c o n f e r e n c e p a r t i c i p a n t s a t t h e
C o l u m b i a - J A F E E c o n f e r e n c e , t h e 1 9 9 9 J o i n t S t a t i s t i c a l M e e t i n g s , R I S K 9 9 , t h e 1 9 9 9 A n n u a l M e e t i n g o f t h e
S o c i e t y f o r C o m p u t a t i o n a l E c o n o m i c s , a n d t h e 2 0 0 0 A n n u a l M e e t i n g o f t h e A m e r i c a n F i n a n c e A s s o c i a t i o n f o r
v a l u a b l e c o m m e n t s a n d d i s c u s s i o n . T h e v i e w s e x p r e s s e d h e r e i n a r e t h o s e o f t h e a u t h o r s a n d a r e n o t n e c e s s a r i l y
t h o s e o f t h e N a t i o n a l B u r e a u o f E c o n o m i c R e s e a r c h .
2 0 0 0 b y A n d r e w W . L o , H a r r y M a m a y s k y , a n d J i a n g W a n g . A l l r i g h t s r e s e r v e d . S h o r t s e c t i o n s o f t e x t ,
n o t t o e x c e e d t w o p a r a g r a p h s , m a y b e q u o t e d w i t h o u t e x p l i c i t p e r m i s s i o n p r o v i d e d t h a t f u l l c r e d i t , i n c l u d i n g
n o t i c e , i s g i v e n t o t h e s o u r c e .
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F o u n d a t i o n s o f T e c h n i c a l A n a l y s i s : C o m p u t a t i o n a l A l g o r i t h m s , S t a t i s t i c a l I n f e r e n c e ,
a n d E m p i r i c a l I m p l e m e n t a t i o n
A n d r e w W . L o , H a r r y M a m a y s k y , a n d J i a n g W a n g
N B E R W o r k i n g P a p e r N o . 7 6 1 3
M a r c h 2 0 0 0
A B S T R A C T
T e c h n i c a l a n a l y s i s , a l s o k n o w n a s " c h a r t i n g , " h a s b e e n p a r t o f f i n a n c i a l p r a c t i c e f o r m a n y
d e c a d e s , b u t t h i s d i s c i p l i n e h a s n o t r e c e i v e d t h e s a m e l e v e l o f a c a d e m i c s c r u t i n y a n d a c c e p t a n c e a s
m o r e t r a d i t i o n a l a p p r o a c h e s s u c h a s f u n d a m e n t a l a n a l y s i s . O n e o f t h e m a i n o b s t a c l e s i s t h e h i g h l y
s u b j e c t i v e n a t u r e o f t e c h n i c a l a n a l y s i s — t h e p r e s e n c e o f g e o m e t r i c s h a p e s i n h i s t o r i c a l ! p r i c e c h a r t s i s
o f t e n i n t h e e y e s o f t h e b e h o l d e r . I n t h i s p a p e r , w e p r o p o s e a s y s t e m a t i c a n d a u t o m a t i c a p p r o a c h t o
t e c h n i c a l p a t t e r n r e c o g n i t i o n u s i n g n o n p a r a m e t r i c k e r n e l r e g r e s s i o n , a n d a p p l y t h i s m e t h o d t o a l a r g e
n u m b e r o f U . S . s t o c k s f r o m 1 9 6 2 t o 1 9 9 6 t o e v a l u a t e t h e e f f e c t i v e n e s s t o t e c h n i c a l a n a l y s i s . B y
c o m p a r i n g t h e u n c o n d i t i o n a l e m p i r i c a l d i s t r i b u t i o n o f d a i l y s t o c k r e t u r n s t o t h e c o n d i t i o n a l
d i s t r i b u t i o n — c o n d i t i o n e d o n s p e c i f i c t e c h n i c a l i n d i c a t o r s s u c h a s h e a d - a n d - s h o u l d e r s o r d o u b l e -
b o t t o m s — w e f i n d t h a t o v e r t h e 3 1 - y e a r s a m p l e p e r i o d , s e v e r a l t e c h n i c a l i n d i c a t o r s d o p r o v i d e
i n c r e m e n t a l i n f o r m a t i o n a n d m a y h a v e s o m e p r a c t i c a l v a l u e .
A n d r e w W . L o
H a r r y M a m a y s k y
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M I T
M n '
5 0 M e m o r i a l D r i v e , E 5 2 - 4 3 2
5 0 M e m o r i a l D r i v e , E 5 2 - 4 5 8
C a m b r i d g e , M A 0 2 1 4 2
C a m b r i d g e , M A 0 2 1 4 2
a n d N B E R
h a r r y m @ m i t . e d u
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C a m b r i d g e , M A 0 2 1 4 2
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O n e o f t h e g r e a t e s t g u l f s b e t w e e n a c a d e m i c f i n a n c e a n d i n d u s t r y p r a c t i c e i s t h e s e p a r a t i o n
t h a t e x i s t s b e t w e e n t e c h n i c a l a n a l y s t s a n d t h e i r a c a d e m i c c r i t i c s . I n c o n t r a s t t o f u n d a m e n t a l
a n a l y s i s , w h i c h w a s q u i c k t o b e a d o p t e d b y t h e s c h o l a r s o f m o d e r n q u a n t i t a t i v e f i n a n c e , t e c h -
n i c a l a n a l y s i s h a s b e e n a n o r p h a n f r o m t h e v e r y s t a r t . I t h a s b e e n a r g u e d t h a t t h e d i f f e r e n c e
b e t w e e n f u n d a m e n t a l a n a l y s i s a n d t e c h n i c a l a n a l y s i s i s n o t u n l i k e t h e d i f f e r e n c e b e t w e e n
a s t r o n o m y a n d a s t r o l o g y . A m o n g s o m e c i r c l e s , t e c h n i c a l a n a l y s i s i s k n o w n a s " v o o d o o f i -
n a n c e . " A n d i n h i s i n f l u e n t i a l b o o k A R a n d o m W a l k D o w n W a l l S t r e e t , B u r t o n M a i l d e l
( 1 9 9 6 ) c o n c l u d e s t h a t " [ u j n d e r s c i e n t i f i c s c r u t i n y , c h a r t - r e a d i n g m u s t s h a r e a p e d e s t a l w i t h
a l c h e m y . "
H o w e v e r , s e v e r a l a c a d e m i c s t u d i e s s u g g e s t t h a t d e s p i t e i t s j a r g o n a n d m e t h o d s , t e c h n i c a l
a n a l y s i s m a y w e l l b e a n e f f e c t i v e m e a n s f o r e x t r a c t i n g u s e f u l i n f o r m a t i o n f r o m m a r k e t p r i c e s .
F o r e x a m p l e , i n r e j e c t i n g t h e R a n d o m W a l k H y p o t h e s i s f o r w e e k l y U S s t o c k i n d e x e s , L o a n d
M a c K i n l a y ( 1 9 8 8 , 1 9 9 9 ) h a v e s h o w n t h a t p a s t p r i c e s m a y b e u s e d t o f o r e c a s t f u t u r e r e t u r n s t o
s o m e d e g r e e , a f a c t t h a t a l l t e c h n i c a l a n a l y s t s t a k e f o r g r a n t e d . S t u d i e s b y T a b e l l a n d T a b e l l
( 1 9 6 4 ) , T r e y n o r a n d F e r g u s o n ( 1 9 8 5 ) , B r o w n a n d J e n n i n g s ( 1 9 8 9 ) , J e g a d e e s h a n d T i t m a n
( 1 9 9 3 ) , B l u m e , E a s l e y , a n d O ' H a r a ( 1 9 9 4 ) , C h a n , J e g a d e e s h , a n d L a k o n i s h o k ( 1 9 9 6 ) , L o a n d
M a c K i n l a y ( 1 9 9 7 ) , G r u n d y a n d M a r t i n ( 1 9 9 8 ) , a n d R o u w e n h o r s t ( 1 9 9 8 ) h a v e a l s o p r o v i d e d
i n d i r e c t s u p p o r t f o r t e c h n i c a l a n a l y s i s , a n d m o r e d i r e c t s u p p o r t h a s b e e n g i v e n b y P r u i t t
a n d W h i t e ( 1 9 8 8 ) , N e f t c i ( 1 9 9 1 ) , B r o t h , L a k o n i s h o k , a n d L e B a r o n ( 1 9 9 2 ) , N e e l y , W e b e r ,
a n d D i t t m a r ( 1 9 9 7 ) , N e e l y a n d W e l l e r ( 1 9 9 8 ) , C h a n g a n d O s l e r ( 1 9 9 4 ) , O s l e r a n d C h a n g
( 1 9 9 5 ) , a n d A l l e n a n d K a r j a l a i n e n ( 1 9 9 9 ) .
O n e e x p l a n a t i o n f o r t h i s s t a t e o f c o n t r o v e r s y a n d c o n f u s i o n i s t h e u n i q u e a n d s o m e t i m e s
i m p e n e t r a b l e j a r g o n u s e d b y t e c h n i c a l a n a l y s t s , s o m e o f w h i c h h a s d e v e l o p e d i n t o a s t a n d a r d
l e x i c o n t h a t c a n b e t r a n s l a t e d . B u t t h e r e a r e m a n y " h o m e g r o w n " v a r i a t i o n s , e a c h w i t h i t s
o w n p a t o i s , w h i c h c a n o f t e n f r u s t r a t e t h e u n i n i t i a t e d . C a m p b e l l , L o , a n d M a c K i n l a y ( 1 9 9 7 ,
p p . 4 3 — 4 4 ) p r o v i d e a s t r i k i n g e x a m p l e o f t h e l i n g u i s t i c b a r r i e r s b e t w e e n t e c h n i c a l a n a l y s t s
a n d a c a d e m i c f i n a n c e b y c o n t r a s t i n g t h i s s t a t e m e n t :
T h e p r e s e n c e o f c l e a r l y i d e n t i f i e d s u p p o r t a n d r e s i s t a n c e l e v e l s , c o u p l e d w i t h
a o n e - t h i r d r e t r a c e m e n t p a r a m e t e r w h e n p r i c e s l i e b e t w e e n t h e m , s u g g e s t s t h e
1
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p r e s e n c e o f s t r o n g b u y i n g a n d s e l l i n g o p p o r t u n i t i e s i n
t h e n e a r - t e r m .
w i t h t h i s o n e :
T h e m a g n i t u d e s a n d d e c a y p a t t e r n o f t h e f i r s t t w e l v e a u t o c o r r e l a t i o n s a n d t h e
s t a t i s t i c a l s i g n i f i c a n c e o f t h e B o x - P i e r c e Q - s t a t i s t i c s u g g e s t t h e p r e s e n c e o f a
h i g h - f r e q u e n c y p r e d i c t a b l e c o m p o n e n t i n s t o c k r e t u r n s .
D e s p i t e t h e f a c t t h a t b o t h s t a t e m e n t s h a v e t h e s a m e m e a n i n g — t h a t p a s t p r i c e s
c o n t a i n
i n f o r m a t i o n f o r p r e d i c t i n g f u t u r e r e t u r n s - — - m o s t r e a d e r s f i n d o n e s t a t e m e n t p l a u s i b l e a n d
t h e o t h e r p u z z l i n g , o r w o r s e , o f f e n s i v e .
T h e s e l i n g u i s t i c b a r r i e r s u n d e r s c o r e a n i m p o r t a n t d i f f e r e n c e b e t w e e n t e c h n i c a l a n a l y s i s
a n d q u a n t i t a t i v e f i n a n c e : t e c h n i c a l a n a l y s i s i s p r i m a r i l y v i s u a l , w h i l e q u a n t i t a t i v e f i n a n c e i s
p r i m a r i l y a l g e b r a i c a n d n u m e r i c a l . T h e r e f o r e , t e c h n i c a l a n a l y s i s e m p l o y s t h e
t o o l s o f g e o m -
e t r y a n d p a t t e r n r e c o g n i t i o n , w h i l e q u a n t i t a t i v e f i n a n c e e m p l o y s t h e
t o o l s o f m a t h e m a t i c a l
a n a l y s i s a n d p r o b a b i l i t y a n d s t a t i s t i c s . I n t h e w a k e o f r e c e n t b r e a k t h r o u g h s i n f i n a n c i a l e n -
g i n e e r i n g , c o m p u t e r t e c h n o l o g y , a n d n u m e r i c a l a l g o r i t h m s , i t i s n o w o n d e r t h a t q u a n t i t a t i v e
f i n a n c e h a s o v e r t a k e n t e c h n i c a l a n a l y s i s i n p o p u l a r i t y — t h e p r i n c i p l e s o f p o r t f o l i o o p t i m i z a -
t i o n a r e f a r e a s i e r t o p r o g r a m i n t o a c o m p u t e r t h a n t h e b a s i c t e n e t s o f t e c h n i c a l a n a l y s i s .
N e v e r t h e l e s s , t e c h n i c a l a n a l y s i s h a s s u r v i v e d t h r o u g h t h e y e a r s , p e r h a p s b e c a u s e i t s v i s u a l
m o d e o f a n a l y s i s i s m o r e c o n d u c i v e t o h u m a n c o g n i t i o n , a n d b e c a u s e p a t t e r n r e c o g n i t i o n i s
o n e o f t h e f e w r e p e t i t i v e a c t i v i t i e s f o r w h i c h c o m p u t e r s d o n o t h a v e a n a b s o l u t e a d v a n t a g e
( y e t ) .
I n d e e d , i t i s d i f f i c u l t t o d i s p u t e t h e p o t e n t i a l v a l u e o f p r i c e / v o l u m e c h a r t s w h e n c o n f r o n t e d
w i t h t h e v i s u a l e v i d e n c e . F o r e x a m p l e , c o m p a r e t h e t w o h y p o t h e t i c a l p r i c e c h a r t s g i v e n i n
F i g u r e 1 . D e s p i t e t h e f a c t t h a t t h e t w o p r i c e s e r i e s a r e i d e n t i c a l o v e r t h e f i r s t h a l f
o f t h e
s a m p l e , t h e v o l u m e p a t t e r n s d i f f e r , a n d t h i s s e e m s t o b e i n f o r m a t i v e . I n p a r t i c u l a r , t h e l o w e r
c h a r t , w h i c h s h o w s h i g h v o l u m e a c c o m p a n y i n g a p o s i t i v e p r i c e t r e n d , s u g g e s t s t h a t t h e r e
m a y b e m o r e i n f o r m a t i o n c o n t e n t i n t h e t r e n d , e . g . , b r o a d e r p a r t i c i p a t i o n a m o n g
i n v e s t o r s .
T h e f a c t t h a t t h e j o i n t d i s t r i b u t i o n o f p r i c e s a n d v o l u m e c o n t a i n s i m p o r t a n t i n f o r m a t i o n i s
h a r d l y c o n t r o v e r s i a l a m o n g a c a d e m i c s . W h y , t h e n , i s t h e v a l u e o f a v i s u a l d e p i c t i o n o f t h a t
j o i n t d i s t r i b u t i o n s o h o t l y c o n t e s t e d ?
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I n t h i s p a p e r , w e h o p e t o b r i d g e t h i s g u l f b e t w e e n t e c h n i c a l a n a l y s i s a n d q u a n t i t a t i v e
f i n a n c e b y d e v e l o p i n g a s y s t e m a t i c a i i d s c i e n t i f i c a p p r o a c h t o t h e p r a c t i c e o f t e c h n i c a l a n a l -
y s i s , a n d b y e m p l o y i n g t h e n o w - s t a n d a r d m e t h o d s o f e m p i r i c a l a n a l y s i s t o g a u g e t h e e f f i c a c y
o f t e c h n i c a l i n d i c a t o r s o v e r t i m e a n d a c r o s s s e c u r i t i e s . I n d o i n g s o , o u r g o a l i s n o t o n l y t o
d e v e l o p a l i n g u a f r a n c a w i t h w h i c h d i s c i p l e s o f b o t h d i s c i p l i n e s c a n e n g a g e i n p r o d u c t i v e
d i a l o g u e , b u t a l s o t o e x t e n d t h e r e a c h o f t e c h n i c a l a n a l y s i s b y a u g m e n t i n g i t s t o o l k i t w i t h
s o m e m o d e m t e c h n i q u e s i n p a t t e r n r e c o g n i t i o n .
T h e g e n e r a l g o a l o f t e c h n i c a l a n a l y s i s i s t o i d e n t i f y r e g u l a r i t i e s i n t h e t i m e s e r i e s o f p r i c e s
b y e x t r a c t i n g n o n l i n e a r p a t t e r n s f r o m n o i s y d a t a . I m p l i c i t i n t h i s g o a l i s t h e r e c o g n i t i o n
t h a t s o m e p r i c e m o v e m e n t s a r e s i g n i f i c a n t — t h e y c o n t r i b u t e t o t h e f o r m a t i o n o f a s p e c i f i c
p a t t e r n — a n d o t h e r s a r e m e r e l y r a n d o m f l u c t u a t i o n s t o b e i g n o r e d . I n m a n y c a s e s , t h e
h u m a n e y e c a n p e r f o r m t h i s " s i g n a l e x t r a c t i o n " q u i c k l y a n d a c c u r a t e l y , a n d u n t i l r e c e n t l y ,
c o m p u t e r a l g o r i t h m s c o u l d n o t . H o w e v e r , a c l a s s o f s t a t i s t i c a l e s t i m a t o r s , c a l l e d s m o o t h i n g
e s t i m a t o r s , i s i d e a l l y s u i t e d t o t h i s t a s k b e c a u s e t h e y e x t r a c t n o n l i n e a r r e l a t i o n s t h e )
b y
" a v e r a g i n g o u t " t h e n o i s e . T h e r e f o r e , w e p r o p o s e u s i n g t h e s e e s t i m a t o r s t o m i m i c , a n d i n
s o m e c a s e s , s h a r p e n t h e s k i l l s o f a t r a i n e d t e c ] m i c a l a n a l y s t i n i d e n t i f y i n g c e r t a i n p a t t e r n s
i n h i s t o r i c a l p r i c e s e r i e s .
I n S e c t i o n I , w e p r o v i d e a b r i e f r e v i e w o f s m o o t h i n g e s t i m a t o r s a n d d e s c r i b e i n d e t a i l t h e
s p e c i f i c s m o o t h i n g e s t i m a t o r w e u s e i n o u r a n a l y s i s : k e r n e l r e g r e s s i o n . O u r a l g o r i t h m f o r
a u t o m a t i n g t e c h n i c a l a n a l y s i s i s d e s c r i b e d i n S e c t i o n I I . W e a p p l y t h i s a l g o r i t h m t o t h e d a i l y
r e t u r n s o f s e v e r a l h u n d r e d U . S . s t o c k s f r o m 1 9 6 2 t o 1 9 9 6 a n d r e p o r t t h e r e s u l t s i n S e c t i o n
I I I . T o c h e c k t h e a c c u r a c y o f o u r s t a t i s t i c a l i n f e r e n c e s , w e p e r f o r m s e v e r a l M o n t e C a r l o
s i m u l a t i o n e x p e r i m e n t s a n d t h e r e s u l t s a r e g i v e n i n S e c t i o n I V . W e c o n c l u d e i n S e c t i o n V .
I . S m o o t h i n g E s t i m a t o r s a n d K e r n e l R e g r e s s i o n
T h e s t a r t i n g p o i n t f o r a n y s t u d y o f t e c h n i c a l a n a l y s i s i s t h e r e c o g n i t i o n t h a t p r i c e s e v o l v e
i n a n o n l i n e a r f a s h i o n o v e r t i m e a n d t h a t t h e n o n l i n e a r i t i e s c o n t a i n c e r t a i n r e g u l a r i t i e s o r
p a t t e r n s . T o c a p t u r e s u c h r e g u l a r i t i e s q u a n t i t a t i v e l y , w e b e g i n b y a s s e r t i n g t h a t p r i c e s { P }
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s a t i s f y t h e f o l l o w i n g e x p r e s s i o n :
P t =
m ( X t )
+ c , t = 1 , . . . , T
( 1 )
w h e r e m ( X ) i s a n a r b i t r a r y f i x e d b u t u n k n o w n n o n l i n e a r f u n c t i o n o f a s t a t e v a r i a b l e X ,
a n d { e } i s w h i t e n o i s e .
F o r t h e p u r p o s e s o f p a t t e r n r e c o g n i t i o n i n w h i c h o u r g o a l i s t o c o n s t r u c t a s m o o t h f u n c t i o n
n z e )
t o
a p p r o x i m a t e t h e t i m e s e r i e s o f p r i c e s { p t } , w e s e t t h e s t a t e v a r i a b l e e q u a l t o t i m
X =
t .
H o w e v e r , t o k e e p o u r n o t a t i o n c o n s i s t e n t w i t h t h a t o f t h e k e r n e l r e g r e s s i o n l i t e r a t u
w e w i l l c o n t i n u e t o u s e X , i n o u r e x p o s i t i o n .
W h e n p r i c e s a r e e x p r e s s e d a s ( 1 ) , i t i s a p p a r e n t t h a t g e o m e t r i c p a t t e r n s c a n e m e r g e f r o m
a v i s u a l i n s p e c t i o n o f h i s t o r i c a l p r i c e s s e r i e s — p r i c e s a r e t h e s u m o f t h e n o n l i n e a r p a t t e r n
i m ( X t ) a n d w h i t e n o i s e — a n d t h a t s u c h p a t t e r n s m a y p r o v i d e u s e f u l i n f o r m a t i o n a b o u t t h e
u n k n o w n f u n c t i o n m e ) t o b e e s t i m a t e d . B u t j u s t h o w u s e f u l i s t h i s i n f o r m a t i o n ?
T o a n s w e r t h i s q u e s t i o n e m p i r i c a l l y a n d s y s t e m a t i c a l l y , w e m u s t f i r s t d e v e l o p a m e t h o d
f o r a u t o m a t i n g t h e i d e n t i f i c a t i o n o f t e c h n i c a l i n d i c a t o r s , i . e . , w e r e q u i r e a p a t t e r n r e c o g n i
t i o n a l g o r i t h m . O n c e s u c h a n a l g o r i t h m i s d e v e l o p e d , i t c a n b e a p p l i e d t o a l a r g e n u m b e r o f
s e c u r i t i e s o v e r m a n y t i m e p e r i o d s t o d e t e r m i n e t h e e f f i c a c y o f v a r i o u s t e c h n i c a l i n d i c a t o r s .
M o r e o v e r , q u a n t i t a t i v e c o m p a r i s o n s o f t h e p e r f o r m a n c e o f s e v e r a l i n d i c a t o r s c a n b e c o n -
d u c t e d , a n d t h e s t a t i s t i c a l s i g n i f i c a n c e o f s u c h p e r f o r m a n c e c a n b e a s s e s s e d t h r o u g h M o n t e
C a r l o s i m u l a t i o n a n d b o o t s t r a p t e c h n i q u e s . '
I n S e c t i o n A , w e p r o v i d e a b r i e f r e v i e w o f a g e n e r a l c l a s s o f p a t t e r n - r e c o g n i t i o n t e c h -
n i q u e s k n o w n a s s m o o t h i n g , a n d i n S e c t i o n B w e d e s c r i b e i n s o m e d e t a i l a p a r t i c u l a r m e t h o d
c a l l e d n o n p a r a m e t r i c k e r n e l r e g r e s s i o n o n w h i c h o u r a l g o r i t h m i s b a s e d . K e r n e l r e g r e s s i o n
e s t i m a t o r s a r e c a l i b r a t e d b y a b a n d w i d t h p a r a m e t e r a n d w e d i s c u s s h o w t h e b a n d w i d t h i s
s e l e c t e d i n C .
A . S m o o t h i n g E s t i m a t o r s
O n e o f t h e m o s t c o m m o n m e t h o d s f o r e s t i m a t i n g n o n l i n e a r r e l a t i o n s s u c h a s ( 1 ) i s s m o o t h i n g ,
i n w h i c h o b s e r v a t i o n a l e r r o r s a r e r e d u c e d b y a v e r a g i n g t h e d a t a i n s o p h i s t i c a t e d w a y s . K e r -
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n e l r e g r e s s i o n , o r t h o g o n a l s e r i e s e x p a n s i o n , p r o j e c t i o n p u r s u i t , n e a r e s t - n e i g h b o r e s t i m a t o r s ,
a v e r a g e d e r i v a t i v e e s t i m a t o r s , s p l i n e s , a n d n e u r a l n e t w o r k s a r e a l l e x a m p l e s o f s m o o t h i n g
e s t i m a t o r s . I n a d d i t i o n t o p o s s e s s i n g c e r t a i n s t a t i s t i c a l o p t i r n a l i t y p r o p e r t i e s , s m o o t h i n g
e s t i m a t o r s a r e m o t i v a t e d b y t h e i r c l o s e c o r r e s p o n d e n c e t o t h e w a y h u m a n c o g n i t i o n e x t r a c t s
r e g u l a r i t i e s f r o m n o i s y d a t a . 2 T h e r e f o r e , t h e y a r e i d e a l f o r o u r p u r p o s e s .
T o p r o v i d e s o m e i n t u i t i o n f o r h o w a v e r a g i n g c a n r e c o v e r n o n l i n e a r r e l a t i o n s s u c h a s
t h e f u n c t i o n m e )
i n
( 1 ) , s u p p o s e w e w i s h t o e s t i m a t e m C )
a t
a p a r t i c W a r d a t e t o w h e n
X 0 = x 0 . N o w s u p p o s e t h a t f o r t h i s o n e o b s e r v a t i o n , X 0 , w e c a n o b t a i n r e p e a t e d i n d e p e n d e n t
o b s e r v a t i o n s o f t h e p r i c e P , 0 , s a y
=
P i , - •
.
,
= p ,
( n o t e t h a t t h e s e a r e i i i n d e p e n d e n t
r e a l i z a t i o n s o f t h e p r i c e a t t h e s a m e d a t e t o , c l e a r l y a n i m p o s s i b i l i t y i n p r a c t i c e , b u t l e t u s
c o n t i n u e w i t h t h i s t h o u g h t e x p e r i m e n t f o r a f e w m o r e s t e p s ) . T h e n a n a t u r a l e s t i m a t o r o f
t h e f u n c t i o n m C ) a t t h e p o i n t z o i s
ñ t ( x o ) =
1 p i
=
1 [ m ( x o ) + e f l
( 2 )
n i = 1
=
m ( x o )
+ — E d , ( 3 )
a n d b y t h e L a w o f L a r g e N u m b e r s , t h e s e c o n d t e r m i n ( 3 ) b e c o m e s n e g l i g i b l e f o r l a r g e i i .
O f c o u r s e , i f { P } i s a t i m e s e r i e s , w e d o n o t h a v e t h e l u x u r y o f r e p e a t e d o b s e r v a t i o n s
f o r a g i v e n X , . H o w e v e r , i f w e a s s u m e t h a t t h e f u n c t i o n m C ) i s s u f f i c i e n t l y s m o o t h , t h e n
f o r t i m e - s e r i e s o b s e r v a t i o n s X n e a r t h e v a l u e x 0 , t h e c o r r e s p o n d i n g v a l u e s o f P s h o u l d b e
c l o s e t o m ( x o ) . I n o t h e r w o r d s , i f m C ) i s s u f f i c i e n t l y s m o o t h , t h e n i n a s m a l l n e i g h b o r h o o d
a r o u n d x 0 , m ( x o ) w i l l b e n e a r l y c o n s t a n t a n d m a y b e e s t i m a t e d b y t a k i n g a n a v e r a g e o f t h e
P r ' s t h a t c o r r e s p o n d t o t h o s e X e ' s n e a r x 0 . T h e c l o s e r t h e X i ' s a r e t o t h e v a l u e x 0 , t h e c l o s e r
a n a v e r a g e o f c o r r e s p o n d i n g P t ' s w i l l b e t o m ( x o ) . T h i s a r g u e s f o r a w e i g h t e d a v e r a g e o f t h e
P t ' s , w h e r e t h e w e i g h t s d e c l i n e a s t h e X , ' s g e t f a r t h e r a w a y f r o m x 0 . T h i s w e i g h t e d - a v e r a g e
o r " l o c a l a v e r a g i n g " p r o c e d u r e o f e s t i m a t i n g m ( x ) i s t h e e s s e n c e o f s m o o t h i n g .
M o r e f o r m a l l y , f o r a n y a r b i t r a r y x , a s m o o t h i n g e s t i m a t o r o f m ( x ) m a y b e e x p r e s s e d a s
l T
r u i ( x )
w ( z ) P t
( 4 )
t = 1
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w h e r e t h e w e i g h t s { w t ( x ) }
a r e
l a r g e f o r t h o s e P s ' s p a i r e d w i t h X e ' s n e a r x , a n d s m a l l f o r t h o s e
P r ' s w i t h X e ' s f a r f r o m x . T o i m p l e m e n t s u c h a p r o c e d u r e , w e m u s t d e f i n e w h a t w e m e a n b y
" n e a r " a n d " f a r . " I f w e c h o o s e t o o l a r g e a n e i g h b o r h o o d a r o u n d x t o c o m p u t e t h e a v e r a g e ,
t h e w e i g h t e d a v e r a g e w i l l b e t o o s m o o t h a n d w i l l n o t e x h i b i t t h e g e n u i n e n o n l i n e a r i t i e s o f
m C ) . I f w e c h o o s e t o o s m a l l a n e i g h b o r h o o d a r o u n d x , t h e w e i g h t e d a v e r a g e w i l l b e t o o
v a r i a b l e , r e f l e c t i n g n o i s e a s w e l l a s t h e v a r i a t i o n s i n m C ) . T h e r e f o r e , t h e w e i g h t s { w t ( x ) }
m u s t b e c h o s e n c a r e f u l l y t o b a l a n c e t h e s e t w o c o n s i d e r a t i o n s .
B . K e r n e l R e g r e s s i o n
F o r t h e k e r n e l r e g r e s s i o n e s t i m a t o r , t h e w e i g h t f u n c t i o n W t ( x ) i s c o n s t r u c t e d f r o m a p r o b a -
b i l i t y d e n s i t y f u n c t i o n K ( x ) , a l s o c a l l e d a k e r n e l : 3
K ( x ) 0
,
f K ( n ) d ' u =
1 .
( 5 )
B y r e s c a l i n g t h e k e r n e l w i t h r e s p e c t t o a p a r a m e t e r h > 0 , w e c a n c h a n g e i t s s p r e a d , i . e . , l e t :
K h ( u )
K ( u / h ) ,
f K h ( u ) d u
=
1
( 6 )
a n d d e f i n e t h e w e i g h t f u n c t i o n t o b e u s e d i n t h e w e i g h t e d a v e r a g e ( 4 ) a s
w t , h ( x )
— X t ) / g h ( x )
( 7 )
g h ( x )
f L K h ( x — X t ) .
( 8 )
I f h i s v e r y s m a l l , t h e a v e r a g i n g w i l l b e d o n e w i t h r e s p e c t t o a r a t h e r s m a l l n e i g h b o r h o o d
a r o u n d e a c h o f t h e X e ' s . I f h i s v e r y l a r g e , t h e a v e r a g i n g w i l l b e o v e r l a r g e r n e i g h b o r h o o d s o f
t h e X e ' s . T h e r e f o r e , c o n t r o l l i n g t h e d e g r e e o f a v e r a g i n g a m o u n t s t o a d j u s t i n g t h e s m o o t h i n g
p a r a m e t e r I i , a l s o k n o w n a s t h e b a n d w i d t h . C h o o s i n g t h e a p p r o p r i a t e b a n d w i d t h i s a n
i m p o r t a n t a s p e c t o f a n y l o c a l - a v e r a g i n g t e c h n i q u e a n d i s d i s c u s s e d m o r e f u l l y i n S e c t i o n C .
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S u b s t i t u t i n g ( 8 ) i n t o ( 4 ) y i e l d s t h e N a d a r a y a - W a t s o n k e r n e l e s t i m a t o r ' t h h ( x ) o f m ( x ) :
1 ' "
> i : : 1 K h ( x
—
X ) Y
m n h ( x ) =
— E W t , h ( X ) Y t
=
T
( 9 )
T
E = 1 K h f r — X )
U n d e r
c e r t a i n r e g u l a r i t y c o n d i t i o n s o n t h e s h a p e o f t h e k e r n e l K a n d t h e m a g n i t u d e s a n d
b e h a v i o r o f t h e w e i g h t s a s t h e s a m p l e s i z e g r o w s , i t m a y b e s h o w n , t h a t ñ t h ( x ) c o n v e r g e s t o
n i ( x ) a s y m p t o t i c a l l y i n s e v e r a l w a y s ( s e e H ã r d l l e ( 1 9 9 0 )
f o r
f u r t h e r d e t a i l s ) . T h i s c o n v e r g e n c e
p r o p e r t y h o l d s f o r a w i d e c l a s s o f k e r n e l s , b u t f o r t h e r e m a i n d e r o f t h i s p a p e r w e s h a l l u s e
t h e m o s t p o p u l a r c h o i c e o f k e r n e l , t h e G a u s s i a n k e r n e l :
K h ( x ) =
( 1 0 )
C . S e l e c t i n g t h e B a n d w i d t h
S e l e c t i n g t h e a p p r o p r i a t e b a n d w i d t h h i n ( 9 ) i s c l e a r l y c e n t r a l t o t h e s u c c e s s o f ñ z h C ) i n
a p p r o x i m a t i n g m O — t o o l i t t l e a v e r a g i n g y i e l d s a f u n c t i o n t h a t i s t o o c h o p p y , a n d t o o m u c h
a v e r a g i n g y i e l d s a f u n c t i o n t h a t i s t o o s m o o t h . T o i l l u s t r a t e t h e s e t w o e x t r e m e s , F i g u r e I I
d i s p l a y s t h e N a d a r a y a - W a t s o n k e r n e l e s t i m a t o r a p p l i e d t o 5 0 0 d a t a p o i n t s g e n e r a t e d f r o m
t h e r e l a t i o n :
=
S i n ( X t )
+ 0 . 5 c ,
c
' S - '
N ( 0 , 1 ) ( 1 1 )
w h e r e X i s e v e n l y s p a c e d i n t h e i n t e r v a l [ 0 , 2 i r ] . P a n e l 1 1 ( a ) p l o t s t h e r a w d a t a a n d t h e
f u n c t i o n t o b e a p p r o x i m a t e d .
K e r n e l e s t i m a t o r s f o r t h r e e d i f f e r e n t b a n d w i d t h s a r e p l o t t e d a s s o l i d l i n e s i n P a n e l s 1 1 ( b ) —
( c ) . T h e b a n d w i d t h i n 1 1 ( b ) i s c l e a r l y t o o s m a l l ; t h e f u n c t i o n i s t o o v a r i a b l e , f i t t i n g t h e
" n o i s e " 0 . 5 t a s w e l l a s t h e " s i g n a l " S i n ( S ) . I n c r e a s i n g t h e b a n d w i d t h s l i g h t l y y i e l d s a m u c h
m o r e a c c u r a t e a p p r o x i m a t i o n t o S i n e ) a s P a n e l 1 1 ( c ) i l l u s t r a t e s . H o w e v e r , P a n e l 1 1 ( d ) s h o w s
t h a t i f t h e b a n d w i d t h i s i n c r e a s e d b e y o n d s o m e p o i n t , t h e r e i s t o o m u c h a v e r a g i n g a n d
i n f o r m a t i o n i s l o s t .
T h e r e a r e s e v e r a l m e t h o d s f o r a u t o m a t i n g t h e c h o i c e o f b a n d w i d t h h i n ( 9 ) , b u t t h e m o s t
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p o p u l a r i s t h e c r o s s - v a l i d a t i o n m e t h o d i n w h i c h h i s c h o s e n t o m i n i m i z e t h e c r o s s - v a l i d a t i o n
f u n c t i o n :
C V ( h ) =
( P
-
r n h , t ) 2
( 1 2 )
w h e r e
T f l h , t = > W , h Y r
( 1 3 )
T h e
e s t i m a t o r i u i h , t
i s t h e k e r n e l r e g r e s s i o n e s t i m a t o r a p p l i e d t o t h e p r i c e h i s t o r y { P , - } w i t h
t h e t - t h o b s e r v a t i o n o m i t t e d , a n d t h e s u m m a n d s i n ( 1 2 ) a r e t h e s q u a r e d e r r o r s o f t h e i h h , t ' s ,
e a c h e v a l u a t e d a t t h e o m i t t e d o b s e r v a t i o n . F o r a g i v e n b a n d w i d t h p a r a m e t e r I t , t h e c r o s s -
v a l i d a t i o n f u n c t i o n i s a m e a s u r e o f t h e a b i l i t y o f t h e k e r n e l r e g r e s s i o n e s t i m a t o r t o f i t e a c h
o b s e r v a t i o n P w h e n t h a t o b s e r v a t i o n i s n o t u s e d t o c o n s t r u c t t h e k e r n e l e s t i m a t o r . B y
s e l e c t i n g t h e b a n d w i d t h t h a t m i n i m i z e s t h i s f u n c t i o n , w e o b t a i n a k e r n e l e s t i m a t o r t h a t
s a t i s f i e s c e r t a i n o p t i m a l i t y p r o p e r t i e s , e . g . , m i n i m u m a s y m p t o t i c m e a n - s q u a r e d e r r o r . 4
I n t e r e s t i n g l y , t h e b a n d w i d t h s o b t a i n e d f r o m m i n i m i z i n g t h e c r o s s - v a l i d a t i o n f u n c t i o n a r e
g e n e r a l l y t o o l a r g e f o r o u r a p p l i c a t i o n t o t e c h n i c a l a n a l y s i s — w h e n w e p r e s e n t e d s e v e r a l
p r o f e s s i o n a l t e c h n i c a l a n a l y s t s w i t h p l o t s o f c r o s s - v a l i d a t i o n - f i t t e d f u n c t i o n s n i 4 e ) , t h e y
a l l
c o n c l u d e d t h a t t h e f i t t e d f u n c t i o n s w e r e t o o s m o o t h . I n o t h e r w o r d s , t h e c r o s s - v a l i d a t i o n -
d e t e r m i n e d b a n d w i d t h p l a c e s t o o m u c h w e i g h t o n p r i c e s f a r a w a y f r o m a n y g i v e n t i m e t ,
i n d u c i n g t o o m u c h a v e r a g i n g a n d d i s c a r d i n g v a l u a b l e i n f o r m a t i o n i n l o c a l p r i c e m o v e m e n t s .
T h r o u g h t r i a l a n d e r r o r , a n d b y p o l l i n g p r o f e s s i o n a l t e c h n i c a l a n a l y s t s , w e h a v e f o u n d t h a t
a n a c c e p t a b l e s o l u t i o f t t o t h i s p r o b l e m i s t o u s e a b a n d w i d t h o f 0 . 3 x h * , w h e r e h m i n i m i z e s
C V ( h ) . 5 A d m i t t e d l y , t h i s i s a n a d h o c a p p r o a c h , a n d i t r e m a i n s a n i m p o r t a n t c h a l l e n g e f o r
f u t u r e r e s e a r c h t o d e v e l o p a m o r e r i g o r o u s p r o c e d u r e .
A n o t h e r p r o m i s i n g d i r e c t i o n f o r f u t u r e r e s e a r c h i s t o c o n s i d e r a l t e r n a t i v e s t o k e r n e l r e -
g r e s s i o n . A l t h o u g h u s e f u l f o r i t s s i m p l i c i t y a n d i n t u i t i v e a p p e a l , k e r n e l e s t i m a t o r s s u f f e r
f r o m a n u m b e r o f w e l l - k n o w n d e f i c i e n c i e s , e . g . , b o u n d a r y b i a s , l a c k o f l o c a l v a r i a b i l i t y i n
t h e d e g r e e o f s m o o t h i n g , e t c . A p o p u l a r a l t e r n a t i v e t h a t o v e r c o m e s t h e s e p a r t i c u l a r d e f i -
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c i e n c i e s i s l o c a l p o l y n o m i a l r e g r e s s i o n i n w h i c h l o c a l a v e r a g i n g o f p o l y n o m i a l s i s p e r f o r m e d
t o o b t a i n a n e s t i m a t o r o f t m ( x ) 6
S u c h
a l t e r n a t i v e s m a y y i e l d i m p o r t a n t i m p r o v e m e n t s t h e
p a t t e r n - r e c o g n i t i o n a l g o r i t h m d e s c r i b e d i n S e c t i o n I I .
T I . A u t o m a t i n g T e c h n i c a l A n a l y s i s
A r m e d w i t h a m a t h e m a t i c a l r e p r e s e n t a t i o n t h e )
o f
{ P } w i t h w h i c h g e o m e t r i c p r o p e r t i e s c a n
b e c h a r a c t e r i z e d i n a n o b j e c t i v e m a n n e r , w e c a n n o w c o n s t r u c t a n a l g o r i t h m f o r a u t o m a t i n g
t h e d e t e c t i o n o f t e c h n i c a l p a t t e r n s . S p e c i f i c a l l y , o u r a l g o r i t h m c o n t a i n s t h r e e s t e p s :
1 . D e f i n e e a c h t e c h n i c a l p a t t e r n i n t e r m s o f i t s g e o m e t r i c p r o p e r t i e s , e . g . , l o c a l e x t r e m a
( m a x i m a a n d m i n i m a ) .
2 . C o n s t r u c t a k e r n e l e s t i m a t o r t h C ) o f a g i v e n t i m e s e r i e s o f p r i c e s s o t h a t i t s e x t r e m a
c a n b e d e t e r m i n e d n u m e r i c a l l y .
3 . A n a l y z e t h e )
f o r
o c c u r r e n c e s o f e a c h t e c h n i c a l p a t t e r n .
T h e l a s t t w o s t e p s a r e r a t h e r s t r a i g h t f o r w a r d a p p l i c a t i o n s o f k e r n e l r e g r e s s i o n . T h e . f i r s t s t e p
i s l i k e l y t o b e t h e m o s t c o n t r o v e r s i a l b e c a u s e i t i s h e r e t h a t t h e s k i l l s a n d j u d g m e n t o f a
p r o f e s s i o n a l t e c h n i c a l a n a l y s t c o m e i n t o p l a y . A l t h o u g h w e w i l l a r g u e i n S e c t i o n A t h a t m o s t
t e c h n i c a l i n d i c a t o r s c a n b e c h a r a c t e r i z e d b y s p e c i f i c s e q u e n c e s o f l o c a l e x t r e m a , t e c h n i c a l
a n a l y s t s m a y a r g u e t h a t t h e s e a r e p o o r a p p r o x i m a t i o n s t o t h e k i n d s o f p a t t e r n s t h a t t r a i n e d
h u m a n a n a l y s t s c a n i d e n t i f y .
W h i l e p a t t e r n - r e c o g n i t i o n t e c h n i q u e s h a v e b e e n s u c c e s s f u l i n a u t o m a t i n g a n u m b e r o f
t a s k s p r e v i o u s l y c o n s i d e r e d t o b e u n i q u e l y h u m a n e n d e a v o r s — f i n g e r p r i n t i d e n t i f i c a t i o n ,
h a n d w r i t i n g a n a l y s i s , f a c e r e c o g n i t i o n , a n d s o o n — n e v e r t h e l e s s i t i s p o s s i b l e t h a t n o a l g o -
r i t h m c a n c o m p l e t e l y c a p t u r e t h e s k i l l s o f a n e x p e r i e n c e d t e c h n i c a l a n a l y s t . W e a c k n o w l e d g e
t h a t a n y a u t o m a t e d p r o c e d u r e f o r p a t t e r n r e c o g n i t i o n m a y m i s s s o m e o f t h e m o r e s u b t l e n u -
a n c e s t h a t h u m a n c o g n i t i o n i s c a p a b l e o f d i s c e r n i n g , b u t w h e t h e r a n a l g o r i t h m i s a p o o r
a p p r o x i m a t i o n t o h u m a n j u d g m e n t c a n o n l y b e d e t e r m i n e d b y i n v e s t i g a t i n g t h e a p p r o x i m a -
t i o n e r r o r s e m p i r i c a l l y . A s l o n g a s a n a l g o r i t h m c a n p r o v i d e a r e a s o n a b l e a p p r o x i m a t i o n t o
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s o m e o f
t h e c o g n i t i v e a b i l i t i e s o f a h u m a n a n a l y s t , w e c a n u s e s u c h a n a l g o r i t h m t o i n v e s t i -
g a t e t h e e m p i r i c a l p e r f o r m a n c e o f t h o s e a s p e c t s o f t e c h n i c a l a n a l y s i s f o r w h i c h t h e a l g o r i t h m
i s a g o o d a p p r o x i m a t i o n . M o r e o v e r , i f t e c h n i c a l a n a l y s i s i s a n a r t f o r m t h a t c a n b e t a u g h t ,
t h e n s u r e l y i t s b a s i c p r e c e p t s c a n b e q u a n t i f i e d a n d a u t o m a t e d t o s o m e d e g r e e . A n d a s
i n c r e a s i n g l y s o p h i s t i c a t e d p a t t e r n - r e c o g n i t i o n t e c h n i q u e s a r e d e v e l o p e d , a l a r g e r f r a c t i o n o f
t h e a r t w i l l b e c o m e a s c i e n c e .
M o r e i m p o r t a n t l y , f r o m a p r a c t i c a l p e r s p e c t i v e , t h e r e m a y b e s i g n i f i c a n t b e n e f i t s t o d e v e l -
o p i n g a n a l g o r i t h m i c a p p r o a c h t o t e c h n i c a l a n a l y s i s b e c a u s e o f t h e l e v e r a g e t h a t t e c h n o l o g y
c a n p r o v i d e . A s w i t h m a n y o t h e r s u c c e s s f u l t e c h n o l o g i e s , t h e a u t o m a t i o n o f t e c h n i c a l p a t -
t e r n r e c o g n i t i o n m a y n o t r e p l a c e t h e s k i l l s o f a t e c h n i c a l a n a l y s t , b u t c a n a m p l i f y t h e m
c o n s i d e r a b l y .
I n S e c t i o n A , w e p r o p o s e d e f i n i t i o n s o f t e n t e c h n i c a l p a t t e r n s b a s e d o n t h e i r e x t r e m a . I n
S e c t i o n B , w e d e s c r i b e a s p e c i f i c a l g o r i t h m t o i d e n t i f y t e c h n i c a l p a t t e r n s b a s e d o n t h e l o c a l
e x t r e m a o f k e r n e l r e g r e s s i o n e s t i m a t o r s , a n d p r o v i d e s p e c i f i c e x a m p l e s o f t h e a l g o r i t h m a t
w o r k i n S e c t i o n C .
A . D e f i n i t i o n s o f T e c h n i c a l P a t t e r n s
W e f o c u s o n f i v e p a i r s o f t e c h n i c a l p a t t e r n s t h a t a r e a m o n g t h e m o s t p o p u l a r p a t t e r n s o f
t r a d i t i o n a l t e c h n i c a l a n a l y s i s ( s e e , f o r e x a m p l e , E d w a r d s a n d M a g e e ( 1 9 6 6 , C h a p t e r s V I I —
X ) ) : h e a d - a n d - s h o u l d e r s ( H S ) a n d i n v e r s e h e a d - a n d - s h o u l d e r s ( I R S ) , b r o a d e n i n g t o p s ( B T )
a n d b o t t o m s ( B B ) , t r i a n g l e t o p s ( T T ) a n d b o t t o m s ( T B ) , r e c t a n g l e t o p s ( R T ) a n d b o t t o m s
( R B ) , a n d d o u b l e t o p s ( D T ) a n d b o t t o m s ( D B ) . T h e r e a r e m a n y o t h e r t e c h n i c a l i n d i c a t o r s
t h a t m a y b e e a s i e r t o d e t e c t a l g o r i t h m i c a l l y — m o v i n g a v e r a g e s , s u p p o r t a n d r e s i s t a n c e l e v e l s ,
a n d o s c i l l a t o r s , f o r e x a m p l e — b u t b e c a u s e w e w i s h t o i l l u s t r a t e t h e p o w e r o f s m o o t h i n g
t e c h n i q u e s i n a u t o m a t i n g t e c h n i c a l a n a l y s i s , w e f o c u s o n p r e c i s e l y t h o s e p a t t e r n s t h a t a r e
m o s t d i f f i c u l t t o q u a n t i f y a n a l y t i c a l l y .
C o n s i d e r t h e s y s t e m a t i c c o m p o n e n t m e )
o f a p r i c e h i s t o r y { P } a n d s u p p o s e w e h a v e i d e n -
t i f i e d i i
l o c a l e x t r e m a , i . e . , t h e l o c a l m a x i m a a n d m i n i m a , o f t m { ' ; ) .
D e n o t e
b y E 1 ,
E 2 , . . . ,
t h e
i i e x t r e m a
a n d t , t , . .
. , t
t h e d a t e s o n w h i c h t h e s e e x t r e m a o c c u r . T h e n w e h a v e t h e
f o l l o w i n g d e f i n i t i o n s :
1 0
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D e f i n i t i o n 1 ( H e a d - a n d - S h o u l d e r s )
H e a d - a n d - s h o u l d e r s ( H S ) a n d i n v e r t e d h e a d - a n d -
s h o u l d e r s ( I H S ) p a t t e r n s a r e c h a r a c t e r i z e d b y a s e q u e n c e o f f i v e c o n s e c u t i v e l o c a l e x t r e m a
E 1 , . .
, P 2 5
s u c h t h a t :
a m a x i m u m
I f S =
—
E 1 a n d P 2 5 w i t h i n 1 . 5 p e r c e n t o f t h e i r a v e r a g e
P 2 2 a n d P 2 4 w i t h i n 1 . 5 p e r c e n t o f t h e i r a v e r a g e
P 2 1 a m i n i m u m
I H S =
—
F 1 a n d F 5 w i t h i n 1 . 5 p e r c e n t o f t h e i r a v e r a g e
F 2 a n d F 4 w i t h i n l . 5 p e r c e n t o f t h e i r a v e r a g e
O b s e r v e t h a t o n l y f i v e c o n s e c u t i v e e x t r e m a a r e r e q u i r e d t o i d e n t i f y a h e a d - a n d - s h o u l d e r s
p a t t e r n . T h i s f o l l o w s f r o m t h e f o r m a l i z a t i o n o f t h e g e o m e t r y o f a h e a d - a n d - s h o u l d e r s p a t t e r n :
t h r e e p e a k s , w i t h t h e m i d i f i e p e a k h i g h e r t h a n t h e o t h e r t w o . B e c a u s e c o n s e c u t i v e e x t r e m a
m u s t a l t e r n a t e b e t w e e n m a x i m a a n d m i n i m a f o r s m o o t h f u n c t i o n s , 7 t h e t h r e e - p e a k s p a t t e r n
c o r r e s p o n d s t o a s e q u e n c e o f f i v e l o c a l e x t r e m a : m a x i m u m , m i n i m u m , h i g h e s t m a x i m u m ,
m i n i m u m , a n d m a x i m u m . T h e i n v e r s e h e a d - a n d - s h o u l d e r s i s s i m p l y t h e m i r r o r i m a g e o f t h e
h e a d - a n d - s h o u l d e r s , w i t h t h e i n i t i a l l o c a l e x t r e m a a m i n i m u m .
B e c a u s e b r o a d e n i n g , r e c t a n g l e , a n d t r i a n g l e p a t t e r n s c a n b e g i n o n e i t h e r a l o c a l m a x i m u m
o r m i n i m u m , w e a U o w f o r b o t h o f t h e s e p o s s i b i l i t i e s i n o u r d e f i n i t i o n s b y d i s t i n g u i s h i n g
b e t w e e n b r o a d e n i n g t o p s a n d b o t t o m s :
D e f i n i t i o n 2 ( B r o a d e n i n g ) B r o a d e n i n g t o p s ( B T O P ) a n d b o t t o m s ( E B O T ) a r e c h a r a c -
t e r i z e d b y a s e q u e n c e o f f i v e c o n s e c u t i v e l o c a l e x t r e m a F 1 , . . .
, F 5
s u c h t h a t :
a m a x i m u m
I
F 1
a m i n i m u m
B T O P P 2 1 < E 3 < E 5
,
B B O T
1 E 2 < P 2 4
D e f i n i t i o n s f o r t r i a n g l e a n d r e c t a n g l e p a t t e r n s f o l l o w n a t u r a l l y :
D e f i n i t i o n 3 ( T r i a n g l e ) T r i a n g l e t o p s ( T T O F ) a n d b o t t o m s ( T B O T ) a r e c h a r a c t e r i z e d b y
a s e q u e n c e o f f i v e c o n s e c u t i v e l o c a l e x t r e m a E r , . . .
, E 5
s u c h t h a t :
I
E 1
a m a x i m u m
( F 1 a m i n i m u m
T T O P = —
,
T B O T =
L . E 2 < P 2 4
I E 2 > E 4
1 1
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D e f i n i t i g n 4 ( R e c t a n g l e ) R e c t a n g l e t o p s ( R T O P ) a n d b o t t o m s ( R B O T ) a r e c h a r a c t e r i z e d
b y a s e q u e n c e o f f i v e c o n s e c u t i v e l o c a l e x t r e m a E 1 , . .
. , E 5
s u c h t h a t :
a m a x i m u m
R T O P =
t o p s
w i t h i n 0 . 7 5 p e r c e n t o f t h e i r a v e r a g e
—
b o t t o m s
w i t h i n 0 . 7 5 p e r c e n t o f t h e i r a v e r a g e
l o w e s t t o p > h i g h e s t b o t t o m
a m i n i m u m
R B O T =
t o p s
w i t h i n 0 . 7 5 p e r c e n t o f t h e i r a v e r a g e
—
b o t t o m s
w i t h i n 0 . 7 5 p e r c e n t o f t h e i r a v e r a g e
l o w e s t t o p > h i g h e s t b o t t o m
T h e d e f i n i t i o n f o r d o u b l e t o p s a n d b o t t o m s i s s l i g h t l y m o r e i n v o l v e d . C o n s i d e r f i r s t t h e
d o u b l e t o p . S t a r t i n g a t a l o c a l m a x i m u m E 1 , w e l o c a t e t h e h i g h e s t l o c a l m a x i m u m E a
o c c u r r i n g a f t e r E 1 i n t h e s e t o f a l l l o c a l e x t r e m a i n t h e s a m p l e . W e r e q u i r e t h a t t h e t w o
t o p s , E 1 a n d E ,
b e
w i t h i n 1 . 5 p e r c e n t o f t h e i r a v e r a g e . F i n a l l y , f o l l o w i n g E d w a r d s a n d
M a g e e ( 1 9 6 6 ) , w e r e q u i r e t h a t t h e t w o t o p s o c c u r a t l e a s t a m o n t h , o r 2 2 t r a d i n g d a y s ,
a p a r t . T h e r e f o r e , w e h a v e :
D e f i n i t i o n 5 ( D o u b l e T o p a n d B o t t o m ) D o u b l e t o p s ( D T O P ) a n d b o t t o m s ( D B O T ) a r e
c h a r a c t e r i z e d b y a n i n i t i a l l o c a l e x t r e m u m E 1 a n d a s u b s e q u e n t l o c a l e x t r e m a E a n d E b s u c h
t h a t :
s u p { P ç
: t > t ,
k = 2 , . . . , n }
i n f { P t : t > t ,
k = 2 , ; . . , n }
a n d
P 2 1 a m a x i m u m
D T O P
E j a n d E w i t h i n 1 . 5 p e r c e n t o f t h e i r a v e r a g e
•
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.
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a n d E b w i t h i n 1 . 5 p e r c e n t o f t h e i r a v e r a g e
•
1 t — t > 2 2
B . T h e I d e n t i f i c a t i o n A l g o r i t h m
O u r a l g o r i t h m b e g i n s w i t h a s a m p l e o f p r i c e s
{ P 1 , . . .
P r }
f o r w h i c h w e f i t k e r n e l r e g r e s s i o n s ,
o n e f o r e a c h s u b s a m p l e
o r w i n d o w
f r o m t t o t + l + d — 1 , w h e r e t v a r i e s
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a n d I a n d d a r e f i x e d p a r a m e t e r s w h o s e p u r p o s e i s e x p l a i n e d b e l o w . I n t h e e m p i r i c a l a n a l y s i s
o f S e c t i o n I I I , w e s e t I = 3 5
a n d d =
3 ,
h e n c e e a c h w i n d o w c o n s i s t s o f 3 8 t r a d i n g d a y s .
T h e m o t i v a t i o n f o r f i t t i n g k e r n e l r e g r e s s i o n s t o r o l l i n g w i n d o w s o f d a t a i s t o n a r r o w o u r
f o c u s t o p a t t e r n s t h a t a r e c o m p l e t e d w i t h i n t h e s p a n o f t h e w i n d o w — i + d t r a d i n g d a y s i n
o u r c a s e . I f w e f i t a s i n g l e k e r n e l r e g r e s s i o n t o t h e e n t i r e d a t a s e t , m a n y p a t t e r n s o f v a r i o u s
d u r a t i o n s m a y e m e r g e , a n d w i t h o u t i m p o s i n g s o m e a d d i t i o n a l s t r u c t u r e o n t h e n a t u r e o f t h e
p a t t e r n s , i t i s v i r t u a l l y i m p o s s i b l e t o d i s t i n g u i s h s i g n a l f r o m n o i s e i n t h i s c a s e . T h e r e f o r e ,
o u r a l g o r i t h m f i x e s t h e l e n g t h o f t h e w i n d o w a t I + d , b u t k e r n e l r e g r e s s i o n s a r e e s t i m a t e d o n
a r o l l i n g b a s i s a n d w e s e a r c h f o r p a t t e r n s i n e a c h w i n d o w .
O f c o u r s e , f o r a n y f i x e d w i n d o w , w e c a n o n l y f i n d p a t t e r n s t h a t a r e c o m p l e t e d w i t h i n l + d
t r a d i n g d a y s . W i t h o u t f u r t h e r s t r u c t u r e o n t h e s y s t e m a t i c c o m p o n e n t o f p r i c e s m e ) , t h i s i s
a r e s t r i c t i o n t h a t a n y e m p i r i c a l a n a l y s i s m u s t c o n t e n d w i t h . 8 W e c h o o s e a s h o r t e r w i n d o w
l e n g t h o f 1 =
3 5
t r a d i n g d a y s t o f o c u s o n s h o r t - h o r i z o n p a t t e r n s t h a t m a y b e m o r e r e l e v a n t
f o r a c t i v e e q u i t y t r a d e r s , a n d l e a v e t h e a n a l y s i s o f l o n g e r - h o r i z o n p a t t e r n s t o f u t u r e r e s e a r c h .
T h e p a r a m e t e r d c o n t r o l s f o r t h e f a c t t h a t i n p r a c t i c e w e d o n o t o b s e r v e a r e a l i z a t i o n o f
a g i v e n p a t t e r n a s s o o n a s i t h a s c o m p l e t e d . I n s t e a d , w e a s s u m e t h a t t h e r e m a y b e a l a g
b e t w e e n t h e p a t t e r n c o m p l e t i o n a n d t h e t i m e o f p a t t e r n d e t e c t i o n . T o a c c o u n t f o r t h i s l a g ,
w e r e q u i r e t h a t t h e f i n a l e x t r e m u m t h a t c o m p l e t e s a p a t t e r n o c c u r s o n d a y t + l — 1 ; h e n c e d i s
t h e n u m b e r o f d a y s f o l l o w i n g t h e c o m p l e t i o n o f a p a t t e r n t h a t m u s t p a s s b e f o r e t h e p a t t e r n
i s d e t e c t e d . T h i s w i l l b e c o m e m o r e i m p o r t a n t i n S e c t i o n I I I w h e n w e c o m p u t e c o n d i t i o n a l
r e t u r n s , c o n d i t i o n e d o n t h e r e a l i z a t i o n o f e a c h p a t t e r n . I n p a r t i c u l a r , w e c o m p u t e p o s t -
p a t t e r n r e t u r n s s t a r t i n g f r o m t h e e n d o f t r a d i n g d a y t + l + d , i . e . , o n e d a y a f t e r t h e p a t t e r n
h a s c o m p l e t e d . F o r e x a m p l e , i f w e d e t e r m i n e t h a t a h e a d - a n d - s h o u l d e r p a t t e r n h a s c o m p l e t e d
o n d a y t + 1 — 1 ( h a v i n g u s e d p r i c e s f r o m t i m e t t h r o u g h t i m e t + 1 + d —
1 ) ,
w e c o m p u t e t h e
c o n d i t i o n a l o n e - d a y g r o s s r e t u r n a s
Y t + l + d + 1 / Y t ÷ l + d . H e n c e w e d o n o t
u s e
a n y f o r w a r d
i n f o r m a t i o n i n c o m p u t i n g r e t u r n s c o n d i t i o n a l o n p a t t e r n c o m p l e t i o n . I n o t h e r w o r d s , t h e
l a g d e n s u r e s t h a t w e a r e c o m p u t i n g o u r c o n d i t i o n a l r e t u r n s c o m p l e t e l y o u t - o f - s a m p l e a n d
w i t h o u t a n y " l o o k - a h e a d " b i a s .
W i t h i n e a c h w i n d o w , w e e s t i m a t e a k e r n e l r e g r e s s i o n u s i n g t h e p r i c e s i n t h a t w i n d o w ,
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h e n c e :
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.
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w h e r e K h ( z )
i s
g i v e n i n ( 1 0 ) a n d h i s t h e b a n d w i d t h p a r a m e t e r ( s e e S e c t i o n C ) . I t i s c l e a r
t h a t ñ i h ( r ) i s a d i f f e r e n t i a b l e f u n c t i o n o f r .
O n c e t h e f u n c t i o n ñ ' i h ( r ) h a s b e e n c o m p u t e d , i t s l o c a l e x t r e m a c a n b e r e a d i l y i d e n t i f i e d
b y f i n d i n g t i m e s r s u c h t h a t S g n ( ñ z ( r ) ) =
— S g n ( n 4 ( r + 1 ) ) ,
w h e r e ñ z d e n o t e s t h e d e r i v a t i v e
o f f l i h w i t h r e s p e c t t o r a n d S g n ( . ) i s t h e s i g n u m f u n c t i o n . I f t h e s i g n s o f ñ % ( r ) ñ t ( r + 1 ) a r e
+ 1 a n d — 1 , r e s p e c t i v e l y , t h e n w e h a v e f o u n d a l o c a l m a x i m u m , a n d i f t h e y a r e — 1 a n d + 1 ,
r e s p e c t i v e l y , t h e n w e h a v e f o u n d a l o c a l m i n i m u m . O n c e s u c h a t i m e r h a s b e e n i d e n t i f i e d ,
w e p r o c e e d t o i d e n t i f y a m a x i m u m o r m i n i m u m i n t h e o r i g i n a l p r i c e s e r i e s { P } i n t h e r a n g e
[ t — i , t + i J , a n d t h e e x t r e m a i n t h e o r i g i n a l p r i c e s e r i e s a r e u s e d t o d e t e r m i n e w h e t h e r o r n o t
a p a t t e r n h a s o c c u r r e d a c c o r d i n g t o t h e d e f i n i t i o n s o f S e c t i o n A .
I f t h ( r ) =
0 f o r a g i v e n i - , w h i c h o c c u r s i f c l o s i n g p r i c e s s t a y t h e s a m e f o r s e v e r a l
c o n s e c u t i v e d a y s , w e n e e d t o c h e c k w h e t h e r t h e p r i c e w e h a v e f o u n d i s a l o c a l m i n i m u m o r
m a x i m u m . W e l o o k f o r t h e d a t e s s u c h t h a t s =
i n f
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s >
r
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0
} .
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a p p l y t h e s a m e m e t h o d a s d i s c u s s e d a b o v e , e x c e p t h e r e w e c o m p a r e S g n ( i % ( r —
1 ) )
a n d
S g n ( u 1 4 ( s ) ) .
O n e u s e f u l c o n s e q u e n c e o f t h i s a l g o r i t h m i s t h a t t h e s e r i e s o f e x t r e m a w h i c h i t i d e n t i f i e s
c o n t a i n s a l t e r n a t i n g m i n i m a a n d m a x i m a . T h a t i s , i f t h e k t h e x t r e m u m i s a m a x i m u m , t h e n
i t i s a l w a y s t h e c a s e t h a t t h e ( k + l ) t h e x t r e m u m i s a m i n i m u m , a n d v i c e v e r s a .
A n i m p o r t a n t a d v a n t a g e o f u s i n g t h i s k e r n e l r e g r e s s i o n a p p r o a c h t o i d e n t i f y p a t t e r n s i s
t h e f a c t t h a t i t i g n o r e s e x t r e m a t h a t a r e " t o o l o c a l . " F o r e x a m p l e , a s i m p l e r a l t e r n a t i v e i s
t o i d e n t i f y l o c a l e x t r e m a f r o m t h e r a w p r i c e d a t a d i r e c t l y , i . e . , i d e n t i f y a p r i c e P a s a l o c a l
m a x i m u m i f P , 1 C P t a n d P , >
P + 1 ,
a n d v i c e v e r s a f o r a l o c a l m i n i m u m . T h e p r o b l e m
w i t h t h i s a p p r o a c h i s t h a t i t i d e n t i f i e s t o o m a n y e x t r e m a , a n d a l s o y i e l d s p a t t e r n s t h a t a r e
n o t v i s u a l l y c o n s i s t e n t w i t h t h e k i n d o f p a t t e r n s t h a t t e c h n i c a l a n a l y s t s f i n d c o m p e l l i n g .
O n c e w e h a v e i d e n t i f i e d a l l o f t h e l o c a l e x t r e m a i n t h e w i n d o w [ t , t + I + d —
1 ] ,
w e c a n
p r o c e e d t o c h e c k f o r t h e p r e s e n c e o f t h e v a r i o u s t e c h n i c a l p a t t e r n s u s i n g t h e d e f i n i t i o n s o f
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S e c t i o n A . T h i s p r o c e d u r e i s t h e n r e p e a t e d f o r t h e n e x t w i n d o w [ t + i , t + l + d ] ,
a n d
c o n t i n u e s
u n t i l t h e e n d o f t h e s a m p l e i s r e a c h e d a t t h e w i n d o w [ T — i —
d +
1 , T ] .
C . E m p i r i c a l E x a m p l e s
T o s e e h o w o u r a l g o r i t h m p e r f o r m s i n p r a c t i c e , w e a p p l y i t t o t h e d a i l y r e t u r n s o f a s i n g l e
s e c u r i t y , C T X , d u r i n g t h e f i v e - y e a r p e r i o d f r o m 1 9 9 2 t o 1 9 9 6 . F i g u r e s 1 1 1 — V u p l o t o c c u r -
r e n c e s o f t h e f i v e p a i r s o f p a t t e r n s d e f i n e d i n S e c t i o n A t h a t w e r e i d e n t i f i e d b y o u r a l g o r i t h m .
N o t e t h a t t h e r e w e r e n o r e c t a n g l e b o t t o m s d e t e c t e d f o r C T X d u r i n g t h i s p e r i o d , s o f o r c o m -
p l e t e n e s s w e s u b s t i t u t e d a r e c t a n g l e b o t t o m f o r C D O s t o c k w h i c h o c c u r r e d d u r i n g t h e s a m e
p e r i o d .
I n e a c h o f t h e s e g r a p h s , t h e s o l i d l i n e s a r e t h e r a w p r i c e s , t h e d a s h e d l i n e s a r e t h e k e r n e l
e s t i m a t o r s m h ( • ) , t h e c i r c l e s i n d i c a t e t h e l o c a l e x t r e m a , a n d t h e v e r t i c a l l i n e m a r k s d a t e
t + l — 1 , t h e d a y t h a t t h e f i n a l e x t r e m u m o c c u r s t o c o m p l e t e t h e p a t t e r n .
C a s u a l i n s p e c t i o n b y s e v e r a l p r o f e s s i o n a l t e c h n i c a l a n a l y s t s s e e m s t o c o n f i r m t h e a b i l i t y o f
o u r a u t o m a t e d p r o c e d u r e t o m a t c h h u m a n j u d g m e n t i n i d e n t i f y i n g t h e f i v e p a i r s o f p a t t e r n s
i n S e c t i o n A . O f c o u r s e , t h i s i s m e r e l y a n e c d o t a l e v i d e n c e a n d n o t m e a n t t o b e c o n c l u s i v e —
w e p r o v i d e t h e s e • f i g u r e s s i m p l y t o i l l u s t r a t e t h e o u t p u t o f a t e c h n i c a l p a t t e r n r e c o g n i t i o n
a l g o r i t h m b a s e d o n k e r n e l r e g r e s s i o n .
I I I . I s T e c h n i c a l A n a l y s i s I n f o r m a t i v e ?
A l t h o u g h t h e r e h a v e b e e n m a n y t e s t s o f t e c h n i c a l a n a l y s i s o v e r t h e y e a r s , m o s t o f t h e s e t e s t s
h a v e f o c u s e d o n t h e p r o f i t a b i l i t y o f t e c h n i c a l t r a d i n g r u l e s . 9 W h i l e s o m e o f t h e s e s t u d i e s d o
f i n d t h a t t e c h n i c a l i n d i c a t o r s c a n g e n e r a t e s t a t i s t i c a l l y s i g n i f i c a n t t r a d i n g p r o f i t s , t h e y b e g
t h e q u e s t i o n o f w h e t h e r o r n o t s u c h p r o f i t s a r e m e r e l y t h e e q u i l i b r i u m r e n t s t h a t a c c r u e t o
i n v e s t o r s w i l l i n g t o b e a r t h e r i s k s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h s u c h s t r a t e g i e s . W i t h o u t s p e c i f y i n g a f u l l y
a r t i c u l a t e d d y n a m i c g e n e r a l e q u i l i b r i u m a s s e t - p r i c i n g m o d e l , i t i s i m p o s s i b l e t o d e t e r m i n e
t h e e c o n o m i c s o u r c e o f t r a d i n g p r o f i t s .
I n s t e a d , w e p r o p o s e a m o r e f u n d a m e n t a l t e s t i n t h i s s e c t i o n , o n e t h a t a t t e m p t s t o g a u g e
t h e i n f o r m a t i o n c o n t e n t i n t h e t e c h n i c a l p a t t e r n s o f S e c t i o n A b y c o m p a r i n g t h e u n c o n d i t i o n a l
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e m p i r i c a l d i s t r i b u t i o n o f r e t u r n s w i t h t h e c o r i e s p o n d i n g c o n d i t i o n a l e m p i r i c a l d i s t r i b u t i o n ,
c o n d i t i o n e d o n t h e o c c u r r e n c e o f a t e c h n i c a l p a t t e r n . I f t e c h n i c a l p a t t e r n s a r e i n f o r m a t i v e ,
c o n d i t i o n i n g o n t h e m s h o u l d a l t e r t h e e m p i r i c a l d i s t r i b u t i o n o f r e t u r n s ; i f t h e i n f o r m a t i o n
c o n t a i n e d i n s u c h p a t t e r n s h a s a l r e a d y b e e n i n c o r p o r a t e d i n t o r e t u r n s , t h e c o n d i t i o n a l a n d
u n c o n d i t i o n a l d i s t r i b u t i o n o f r e t u r n s s h o u l d b e c l o s e . A l t h o u g h t h i s i s a w e a k e r t e s t o f t h e
e f f e c t i v e n e s s o f t e c h n i c a l a n a l y s i s — i n f o r m a t i v e n e s s d o e s n o t g u a r a n t e e a p r o f i t a b l e t r a d i n g
s t r a t e g y — i t i s , n e v e r t h e l e s s , a n a t u r a l f i r s t s t e p i n a q u a n t i t a t i v e a s s e s s m e n t o f t e c h n i c a l
a n a l y s i s .
T o m e a s u r e t h e d i s t a n c e b e t w e e n t h e t w o d i s t r i b u t i o n s , w e p r o p o s e t w o g o o d n e s s - o f - f i t
m e a s u r e s i n S e c t i o n A . W e a p p l y t h e s e d i a g n o s t i c s t o t h e d a i l y r e t u r n s o f i n d i v i d u a l s t o c k s
f r o m 1 9 6 2 t o 1 9 9 6 u s i n g a p r o c e d u r e d e s c r i b e d i n S e c t i o n s B t o D , a n d t h e r e s u l t s a r e
r e p o r t e d i n S e c t i o n s E a n d F .
A . G o o d n e s s - o f - F i t T e s t s
A s i m p l e d i a g n o s t i c t o t e s t t h e i n f o r m a t i v e n e s s o f t h e t e n t e c h n i c a l p a t t e r n s i s t o c o m p a r e t h e
q u a n t i l e s o f t h e c o n d i t i o n a l r e t u r n s w i t h t h e i r u n c o n d i t i o n a l c o u n t e r p a r t s . I f c o n d i t i o n i n g o n
t h e s e t e c h n i c a l p a t t e r n s p r o v i d e s n o i n c r e m e n t a l i n f o r m a t i o n , t h e q u a n t i l e s o f t h e c o n d i t i o n a l
r e t u r n s s h o u l d b e s i m i l a r t o t h o s e o f u n c o n d i t i o n a l r e t u r n s . I n p a r t i c u l a r , w e c o m p u t e t h e
d e c i l e s o f u n c o n d i t i o n a l r e t u r n s a n d t a b u l a t e t h e r e l a t i v e f r e q u e n c y 5 o f c o n d i t i o n a l r e t u r n s
f a l l i n g i n t o d e c i l e j
o f
t h e u n c o n d i t i o n a l r e t u r n s , j
1 , .
.
. , 1 0 :
n u m b e r o f c o n d i t i o n a l r e t u r n s i n d e c i l e
1 5
t o t a l n u m b e r o f c o n d i t i o n a l r e t u r n s
U n d e r t h e n u l l h y p o t h e s i s t h a t t h e r e t u r n s a r e i n d e p e n d e n t l y a n d i d e n t i c a l l y d i s t r i b u t e d a n d
t h e c o n d i t i o n a l a n d u n c o n d i t i o n a l d i s t r i b u t i o n s a r e i d e n t i c a l , t h e a s y m p t o t i c d i s t r i b u t i o n s o f
S a n d t h e c o r r e s p o n d i n g g o o d n e s s - o f - f i t t e s t s t a t i s t i c Q a r e g i v e n b y :
— 0 . 1 0 ) Q i
A f ( 0 , 0 . 1 0 ( 1 — 0 . 1 0 ) ) ( 1 6 )
Q
( n j _ 0 J 0 n ) 2
( 1 7 )
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w h e r e n j i s t h e n u m b e r o f o b s e r v a t i o n s t h a t f a l l i n d e c i l e j
a n d
n i s t h e t o t a l n u m b e r o f
o b s e r v a t i o n s ( s e e , f o r e x a m p l e , D e G r o o t ( 1 9 8 6 ) ) .
A n o t h e r c o m p a r i s o n o f t h e c o n d i t i o n a l a n d u n c o n d i t i o n a l d i s t r i b u t i o n s o f r e t u r n s i s p r o -
v i d e d b y t h e K o l m o g o r o v - S m i r n o v t e s t . D e n o t e b y { Z 1 } 1 a n d { Z 2 } 1 t w o s a m p l e s t h a t
a r e e a c h i n d e p e n d e n t l y a n d i d e n t i c a l l y d i s t r i b u t e d w i t h c u m u l a t i v e d i s t r i b u t i o n f u n c t i o n s
F i ( z ) a n d F 2 ( z ) , r e s p e c t i v e l y . T h e K o l m o g o r o v - S m i r n o v s t a t i s t i c i s d e s i g n e d t o t e s t t h e n u l l
h y p o t h e s i s t h a t F 1 = F 2 , a n d i s b a s e d o n t h e e m p i r i c a l c u m u l a t i v e d i s t r i b u t i o n f u n c t i o n s N
o f
b o t h s a m p l e s :
i = 1 , 2
( 1 8 )
k = i
w h e r e
1 ( . ) i s t h e i n d i c a t o r f u n c t i o n . T h e s t a t i s t i c i s g i v e n b y t h e e x p r e s s i o n :
7 m 1 , n 2
=
(
n 1 n 2
) 1 / 2
s u p
E i ( z ) — f r 2 ( z ) I
.
( 1 9 )
T i 1
+ n 2
U n d e r t h e n u l l h y p o t h e s i s F 1 =
F 2 ,
t h e s t a t i s t i c ' y , , 2 2 s h o u l d b e s m a l l . M o r e o v e r , S m i r n o v
( 1 9 3 9 a , 1 9 3 9 b ) d e r i v e s t h e l i m i t i n g d i s t r i b u t i o n o f t h e s t a t i s t i c t o b e :
l i m
P r o b ( ' y 1 , 2 x ) = E ( _ 1 ) k
e x p ( — 2 k 2 x 2 ) ,
x >
0
( 2 0 )
m m ( n i
, f l 2 ) — * o C
k = — o o
A n a p p r o x i m a t e a - l e v e l t e s t o f t h e n u l l h y p o t h e s i s c a n b e p e r f o r m e d b y c o m p u t i n g t h e
s t a t i s t i c a n d r e j e c t i n g t h e n u l l i f i t e x c e e d s t h e u p p e r l O O a - t h p e r c e n t i l e f o r t h e n u l l d i s t r i -
b u t i o n g i v e n b y ( 2 0 ) ( s e e H o l l a n d e r a n d W o l f e ( 1 9 7 3 , T a b l e A . 2 3 ) , C s á k i ( 1 9 8 4 ) , a n d P r e s s
e t a l . ( 1 9 8 6 , C h a p t e r 1 3 . 5 ) ) .
N o t e t h a t t h e s a m p l i n g d i s t r i b u t i o n s o f b o t h t h e g o o d n e s s - o f - f i t a n d K o l m o g o r o v - S m i r n o v
s t a t i s t i c s a r e d e r i v e d u n d e r t h e a s s u m p t i o n t h a t r e t u r n s a r e i n d e p e n d e n t l y a n d i d e n t i c a l l y
d i s t r i b u t e d , w h i c h i s n o t p l a u s i b l e f o r f i n a n c i a l d a t a . W e a t t e m p t t o a d d r e s s t h i s p r o b -
l e m b y n o r m a l i z i n g t h e r e t u r n s o f e a c h s e c u r i t y , i . e . , b y s u b t r a c t i n g i t s m e a n a n d d i v i d i n g
b y i t s s t a n d a r d d e v i a t i o n ( s e e S e c t i o n C ) , b u t t h i s d o e s n o t e l i m i n a t e t h e d e p e n d e n c e o r
h e t e r o g e n e i t y . W e h o p e t o e x t e n d o u r a n a l y s i s t o t h e m o r e g e n e r a l n o n - l I D c a s e i n f u t u r e
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r e s e a r c h .
B . T h e D a t a a n d S a m p l i n g P r o c e d u r e
W e a p p l y t h e g o o d n e s s - o f - f i t a n d K o l m o g o r o v - S m i r n o v t e s t s t o t h e d a i l y r e t u r n s o f i n d i -
v i d u a l N Y S E / A M E X a n d N a s d a q s t o c k s f r o m 1 9 6 2 t o 1 9 9 6 u s i n g d a t a f r o m t h e C e n t e r f o r
R e s e a r c h i n S e c u r i t i e s P r i c e s ( C R S P ) . T o a m e l i o r a t e t h e e f f e c t s o f n o n s t a t i o n a r i t i e s i n d u c e d
b y c h a n g i n g m a r k e t s t r u c t u r e a n d i n s t i t u t i o n s , w e s p l i t t h e d a t a i n t o N Y S E / A M E X s t o c k s
a n d N a s d a q s t o c k s a n d i n t o s e v e n f i v e - y e a r p e r i o d s : 1 9 6 2 t o 1 9 6 6 , 1 9 6 7 t o 1 9 7 1 , a n d s o o n .
T o o b t a i n a b r o a d c r o s s - s e c t i o n o f s e c u r i t i e s , i n e a c h f i v e - y e a r s u b p e r i o d , w e r a n d o m l y s e l e c t
t e n s t o c k s f r o m e a c h o f f i v e m a r k e t - c a p i t a l i z a t i o n q u i n t i l e s ( u s i n g m e a n m a r k e t - c a p i t a l i z a t i o n
o v e r t h e s u b p e r i o d ) , w i t h t h e f u r t h e r r e s t r i c t i o n t h a t a t l e a s t 7 5 p e r c e n t o f t h e p r i c e o b s e r -
v a t i o n s m u s t b e n o n - m i s s i n g d u r i n g t h e s u b p e r i o d . ' ° T h i s p r o c e d u r e y i e l d s a s a m p l e o f 5 0
s t o c k s f o r e a c h s u b p e r i o d a c r o s s s e v e n s u b p e r i o d s ( n o t e t h a t w e s a m p l e w j t h r e p l a c e m e n t ,
h e n c e t h e r e m a y b e n a m e s i n c o m m o n a c r o s s s u b p e r i o d s ) .
A s a c h e c k o n t h e r o b u s t n e s s o f o u r i n f e r e n c e s , w e p e r f o r m t h i s s a m p l i n g p r o c e d u r e t w i c e
t o c o n s t r u c t t w o s a m p l e s , a n d a p p l y o u r e m p i r i c a l a n a l y s i s t o b o t h . A l t h o u g h w e r e p o r t
r e s u l t s o n l y f r o m t h e f i r s t s a m p l e t o c o n s e r v e s p a c e , t h e r e s u l t s o f t h e s e c o n d s a m p l e a r e
q u a l i t a t i v e l y c o n s i s t e n t w i t h t h e f i r s t a n d a r e a v a i l a b l e u p o n r e q u e s t .
C . C o m p u t i n g C o n d i t i o n a l R e t u r n s
F o r e a c h s t o c k i n e a c h s u b p e r i o d , w e a p p l y t h e p r o c e d u r e o u t l i n e d i n S e c t i o n I I t o i d e n t i f y
a l l o c c u r r e n c e s o f t h e t e n p a t t e r n s d e B i t e d i n S e c t i o n A . F o r e a c h p a t t e r n d e t e c t e d , w e c o m -
p u t e t h e o n e - d a y c o n t i n u o u s l y c o m p o u n d e d r e t u r n d d a y s a f t e r t h e p a t t e r n h a s c o m p l e t e d .
S p e c i f i c a l l y , c o n s i d e r a w i n d o w o f p r i c e s { P } f r o m t t o t + l + d — 1 , a n d s u p p o s e t h a t t h e
i d e n t i f i e d p a t t e r n p i s c o m p l e t e d a t t + I — 1 .
T h e n w e t a k e t h e c o n d i t i o n a l r e t u r n R ' a s
l o g ( 1 + R + 1 ÷ i ) . T h e r e f o r e , f o r e a c h s t o c k , w e h a v e t e n s e t s o f s u c h c o n d i t i o n a l r e t u r n s ,
e a c h c o n d i t i o n e d o n o n e o f t h e t e n p a t t e r n s o f S e c t i o n A .
F o r e a c h s t o c k , w e c o n s t r u c t a s a m p l e o f u n c o n d i t i o n a l c o n t i n u o u s l y c o m p o u n d e d r e t u r n s
u s i n g n o n - o v e r l a p p i n g i n t e r v a l s o f l e n g t h r , a n d w e c o m p a r e t h e e m p i r i c a l d i s t r i b u t i o n f u n c -
t i o n o f t h e s e r e t u r n s w i t h t h o s e o f t h e c o n d i t i o n a l r e t u r n s . T o f a c i l i t a t e s u c h c o m p a r i s o n s ,
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w e s t a n d a r d i z e a l l r e t u r n s — b o t h c o n d i t i o n a l a n d u n c o n d i t i o n a l — b y s u b t r a c t i n g m e a n s a n d
d i v i d i n g b y s t a n d a r d d e v i a t i o n s , h e n c e :
—
— M e a n [ R t ]
2 1
t
—
S D [ R j ]
'
w h e r e
t h e m e a n s a n d s t a n d a r d d e v i a t i o n s a r e c o m p u t e d f o r e a c h i n d i v i d u a l s t o c k w i t h i n e a c h
s u b p e r i o d . T h e r e f o r e , b y c o n s t r u c t i o n , e a c h n o r m a l i z e d r e t u r n s e r i e s h a s z e r o m e a n a n d u n i t
v a r i a n c e .
F i n a l l y , t o i n c r e a s e t h e p o w e r o f o u r g o o d n e s s - o f - f i t t e s t s , w e c o m b i n e t h e n o r m a l i z e d r e -
t u r n s o f a l l 5 0 s t o c k s w i t h i n e a c h s u b p e r i o d ; h e n c e f o r e a c h s u b p e r i o d w e h a v e t w o s a m p l e s —
u n c o n d i t i o n a l a n d c o n d i t i o n a l r e t u r n s — a n d f r o m t h e s e w e c o m p u t e t w o e m p i r i c a l d i s t r i b u -
t i o n f u n c t i o n s t h a t w e c o m p a r e u s i n g o u r d i a g n o s t i c t e s t s t a t i s t i c s .
D . C o n d i t i o n i n g o n V o l u m e
G i v e n t h e p r o m i n e n t r o l e t h a t v o l u m e p l a y s i n t e c h n i c a l a n a l y s i s , w e a l s o c o n s t r u c t r e t u r n s
c o n d i t i o n e d o n i n c r e a s i n g o r d e c r e a s i n g v o l u m e . S p e c i f i c a l l y , f o r e a c h s t o c k i n e a c h s u b p e r i o d ,
w e c o m p u t e i t s a v e r a g e s h a r e - t u r n o v e r d u r i n g t h e f i r s t a n d s e c o n d h a l v e s o f e a c h s u b p e r i o d ,
r 1 a n d r 2 , r e s p e c t i v e l y . " I f i - ,
> 1 . 2
x r 2 ,
w e
c a t e g o r i z e t h i s a s a " d e c r e a s i n g v o l u m e " e v e n t ;
i f r 2 >
1 . 2
x r 1 , w e c a t e g o r i z e t h i s a s a n " i n c r e a s i n g v o l u m e " e v e n t . I f n e i t h e r o f t h e s e
c o n d i t i o n s h o l d s , t h e n n e i t h e r e v e n t i s c o n s i d e r e d t o h a v e o c c u r r e d .
U s i n g t h e s e e v e n t s , w e c a n c o n s t r u c t c o n d i t i o n a l r e t u r n s c o n d i t i o n e d o n t w o p i e c e s o f
i n f o r m a t i o n : t h e o c c u r r e n c e o f a t e c h n i c a l p a t t e r n a n d t h e o c c u r r e n c e o f i n c r e a s i n g o r d e -
c r e a s i n g v o l u m e . T h e r e f o r e , w e s h a l l c o m p a r e t h e e m p i r i c a l d i s t r i b u t i o n o f u n c o n d i t i o n a l
r e t u r n s w i t h t h r e e c o n d i t i o n a l - r e t u r n d i s t r i b u t i o n s : t h e d i s t r i b u t i o n o f r e t u r n s c o n d i t i o n e d
o n t e c h n i c a l p a t t e r n s , t h e d i s t r i b u t i o n c o n d i t i o n e d o n t e c h n i c a l p a t t e r n s a n d i n c r e a s i n g v o l -
u m e , a n d t h e d i s t r i b u t i o n c o n d i t i o n e d o n t e c h n i c a l p a t t e r n s a n d d e c r e a s i n g v o l u m e .
O f c o u r s e , o t h e r c o n d i t i o n i n g v a r i a b l e s c a n e a s i l y b e i n c o r p o r a t e d i n t o t h i s p r o c e d u r e ,
t h o u g h t h e " c u r s e o f d i m e n s i o n a l i t y " i m p o s e s c e r t a i n p r a c t i c a l l i m i t s o n t h e a b i l i t y t o e s t i -
m a t e m u l t i v a r i a t e c o n d i t i o n a l d i s t r i b u t i o n s n o n p a r a m e t r i c a l l y .
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t r i a n g l e s i s r o u g h l y c o m p a r a b l e a c r o s s t h e t w o s a m p l e s , b u t f o r r e c t a n g l e s a n d d o u b l e t o p s
a n d b o t t o m s , t h e d i f f e r e n c e s a r e d r a m a t i c . O f c o u r s e , t h e s i m u l a t e d s a m p l e i s o n l y o n e r e a l -
i z a t i o n o f g e o m e t r i c B r o w n i a n m o t i o n , s o i t i s d i f f i c u l t t o d r a w g e n e r a l c o n c l u s i o n s a b o u t t h e
r e l a t i v e f r e q u e n c i e s . N e v e r t h e l e s s , t h e s e s i m u l a t i o n s p o i n t t o i m p o r t a n t d i f f e r e n c e s b e t w e e n
t h e d a t a a n d i n d e p e n d e n t l y a n d i d e n t i c a l l y d i s t r i b u t e d l o g n o r m a l r e t u r n s .
T o d e v e l o p f u r t h e r i n t u i t i o n f o r t h e s e p a t t e r n s , F i g u r e s V I I I a n d I X d i s p l a y t h e c r o s s -
s e c t i o n a l a n d t i m e - s e r i e s d i s t r i b u t i o n o f e a c h o f t h e t e n p a t t e r n s f o r t h e N Y S E / A M E X a n d
N a s d a q s a m p l e s , r e s p e c t i v e l y . E a c h s y m b o l r e p r e s e n t s a p a t t e r n d e t e c t e d b y o u r a l g o r i t h m ,
t h e v e r t i c a l a x i s i s d i v i d e d i n t o f i v e q u i n t i l e s , t h e h o r i z o n t a l a x i s i s c a l e n d a r t i m e , a n d
a l t e r n a t i n g s y m b o l s ( d i a m o n d s a n d a s t e r i s k s ) r e p r e s e n t d i s t i n c t s u b p e r i o d s . T h e s e g r a p h s
s h o w t h a t t h e d i s t r i b u t i o n o f p a t t e r n s i s n o t c l u s t e r e d i n t i m e o r a m o n g a s u b s e t o f s e c u r i t i e s .
T a b l e I I p r o v i d e s t h e s a m e f r e q u e n c y c o u n t s f o r N a s d a q s t o c k s , a n d d e s p i t e t h e f a c t t h a t
w e h a v e t h e s a m e n u m b e r o f s t o c k s i n t h i s s a m p l e ( 5 0 p e r s u b p e r i o d o v e r s e v e n s u b p e r i o d s ) ,
t h e r e a r e c o n s i d e r a b l y f e w e r p a t t e r n s d e t e c t e d t h a n i n t h e N Y S E / A M E X c a s e . F o r e x a m p l e ,
t h e N a s d a q s a m p l e y i e l d s o n l y 9 1 9 h e a d - a n d - s h o u l d e r s p a t t e r n s , w h e r e a s t h e N Y S E / A M E X
s a m p l e c o n t a i n s 1 , 6 1 1 . N o t s u r p r i s i n g l y , t h e f r e q u e n c y c o u n t s f o r t h e s a m p l e o f s i m u l a t e d
g e o m e t r i c B r o w n i a n m o t i o n a r e s i m i l a r t o t h o s e i n T a b l e I .
T a b l e s I I I a n d I V r e p o r t s u u m i a r y s t a t i s t i c s — m e a n s , s t a n d a r d d e v i a t i o n s , s k e w n e s s , a n d
e x c e s s k u r t o s i s — o f u n c o n d i t i o n a l a n d c o n d i t i o n a l n o r m a l i z e d r e t u r n s o f N Y S E / A M E X a n d
N a s d a q s t o c k s , r e s p e c t i v e l y . T h e s e s t a t i s t i c s s h o w c o n s i d e r a b l e v a r i a t i o n i n t h e d i f f e r e n t r e -
t u r n p o p u l a t i o n s . F o r e x a m p l e , t h e f i r s t f o u r m o m e n t s o f n o r m a l i z e d r a w r e t u r n s a r e 0 . 0 0 0 ,
1 . 0 0 0 ,
0 . 3 4 5 , a n d 8 . 1 2 2 , r e s p e c t i v e l y . T h e s a m e f o u r m o m e n t s o f p o s t - B T O P r e t u r n s a r e
— 0 . 0 0 5 , 1 . 0 3 5 , — 1 . 1 5 1 , a n d 1 6 . 7 0 1 , r e s p e c t i v e l y , a n d t h o s e o f p o s t - D T O P r e t u r n s a r e 0 . 0 1 7 ,
0 . 9 1 0 , 0 . 2 0 6 , a n d 3 . 3 8 6 , r e s p e c t i v e l y . T h e d i f f e r e n c e s i n t h e s e s t a t i s t i c s a m o n g t h e t e n c o n -
d i t i o n a l r e t u r n p o p u l a t i o n s , a n d t h e d i f f e r e n c e s b e t w e e n t h e c o n d i t i o n a l a n d u n c o n d i t i o n a l
r e t u r n p o p u l a t i o n s , s u g g e s t t h a t c o n d i t i o n i n g o n t h e t e n t e c h n i c a l i n d i c a t o r s d o e s h a v e s o m e
e f f e c t o n t h e d i s t r i b u t i o n o f r e t u r n s .
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F . E m p i r i c a l R e s u l t s
T a b l e s V a n d V i r e p o r t s t h e r e s u l t s o f t h e g o o d n e s s - o f - f i t t e s t ( 1 6 ) — ( l 7 ) f o r o u r s a m p l e o f
N Y S E a n d A M E X ( T a b l e V ) a n d N a s d a q ( T a b l e V I ) s t o c k s , r e s p e c t i v e l y , f r o m 1 9 6 2 t o 1 9 9 6
f o r e a c h o f t h e t e n t e c h n i c a l p a t t e r n s . T a b l e V s h o w s t h a t i n t h e N Y S E / A M E X s a m p l e ,
t h e r e l a t i v e f r e q u e n c i e s o f t h e c o n d i t i o n a l r e t u r n s a r e s i g n i f i c a n t l y d i f f e r e n t f r o m t h o s e o f t h e
u n c o n d i t i o n a l r e t u r n s f o r s e v e n o f t h e t e n p a t t e r n s c o n s i d e r e d . T h e t h r e e e x c e p t i o n s a r e t h e
c o n d i t i o n a l r e t u r n s f r o m t h e B B O T , T T O P , a n d D B O T p a t t e r n s , f o r w h i c h t h e p - v a l u e s o f
t h e t e s t s t a t i s t i c s Q a r e 5 . 1 p e r c e n t , 2 1 . 2 p e r c e n t , a n d 1 6 . 6 p e r c e n t r e s p e c t i v e l y . T h e s e r e s u l t s
y i e l d m i x e d s u p p o r t f o r t h e o v e r a l l e f f i c a c y o f t e c h n i c a l i n d i c a t o r s . H o w e v e r , t h e r e s u l t s o f
T a b l e V I t e l l a d i f f e r e n t s t o r y : t h e r e i s o v e r w h e l m i n g s i g n i f i c a n c e f o r a l l t e n i n d i c a t o r s i n t h e
N a s d a q s a m p l e , w i t h p - v a l u e s t h a t a r e z e r o t o t h r e e s i g n i f i c a n t d i g i t s , a n d t e s t s t a t i s t i c s Q
t h a t r a n g e f r o m 3 4 . 1 2 t o 9 2 . 0 9 . I n c o n t r a s t , t h e t e s t s t a t i s t i c s i n T a b l e V r a n g e f r o m 1 2 . 0 3
t o 5 0 . 9 7 .
O n e p o s s i b l e e x p l a n a t i o n f o r t h e d i f f e r e n c e b e t w e e n t h e N Y S E / A M E X a n d N a s d a q
s a m p l e s i s a d i f f e r e n c e i n t h e p o w e r o f t h e t e s t b e c a u s e o f d i f f e r e n t s a m p l e s i z e s . I f t h e
N Y S E / A M E X s a m p l e c o n t a i n e d f e w e r c o n d i t i o n a l r e t u r n s , i . e . , f e w e r p a t t e r n s , t h e c o r r e -
s p o n d i n g t e s t s t a t i s t i c s m i g h t b e s u b j e c t t o g r e a t e r s a m p l i n g v a r i a t i o n a n d l o w e r p o w e r .
H o w e v e r , t h i s e x p l a n a t i o n c a n b e r u l e d o u t f r o m t h e f r e q u e n c y c o u n t s o f T a b l e s I a n d I I —
t h e n u m b e r o f p a t t e r n s i n t h e N Y S E / A M E X s a m p l e i s c o n s i d e r a b l y l a r g e r t h a n t h o s e o f t h e
N a s d a q s a m p l e f o r a l l t e n p a t t e r n s . T a b l e s V a n d V I s e e m t o s u g g e s t i m p o r t a n t d i f f e r e n c e s
i n t h e i n f o r m a t i v e n e s s o f t e c h n i c a l i n d i c a t o r s f o r N Y S E / A M E X a n d N a s d a q s t o c k s .
T a b l e V I I a n d V I I I r e p o r t t h e r e s u l t s o f t h e K o l m o g o r o v - S m i r n o v t e s t ( 1 9 ) o f t h e e q u a l i t y
o f t h e c o n d i t i o n a l a n d u n c o n d i t i o n a l r e t u r n d i s t r i b u t i o n s f o r N Y S E / A M E X ( T a b l e V I I ) a n d
N a s d a q ( T a b l e V I I I ) s t o c k s , r e s p e c t i v e l y , f r o m 1 9 6 2 t o 1 9 9 6 , i n f i v e - y e a r s u b p e r i o d s , a n d
i n m a r k e t - c a p i t a l i z a t i o n q u i n t i l e s . R e c a l l t h a t c o n d i t i o n a l r e t u r n s a r e d e f i n e d a s t h e o n e -
d a y r e t u r n s t a r t i n g t h r e e d a y s f o l l o w i n g t h e c o n c l u s i o n o f a n o c c u r r e n c e o f a p a t t e r n . T h e
p - v a l u e s a r e w i t h r e s p e c t t o t h e a s y m p t o t i c d i s t r i b u t i o n o f t h e K o l m o g o r o v - S m i r n o v t e s t
s t a t i s t i c g i v e n i n ( 2 0 ) .
T a b l e V I I s h o w s t h a t f o r N Y S E / A M E X s t o c k s , f i v e o f t h e t e n p a t t e r n s — H S , B B O T ,
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R T O P , R B O T , a n d D T O P — y i e l d s t a t i s t i c a l l y s i g n i f i c a n t t e s t s t a t i s t i c s , w i t h p - v a l u e s r a n g -
i n g f r o m 0 . 0 0 0 f o r R B O T t o 0 . 0 2 1 f o r D T O P p a t t e r n s . H o w e v e r , f o r t h e o t h e r f i v e p a t t e r n s ,
t h e p - v a l u e s r a n g e f r o m 0 . 1 0 4 f o r I R S t o 0 . 3 9 3 f o r D B O T , w h i c h i m p l i e s a n i n a b i l i t y t o
d i s t i n g u i s h b e t w e e n t h e c o n d i t i o n a l a n d u n c o n d i t i o n a l d i s t r i b u t i o n s o f n o r m a l i z e d r e t u r n s .
W h e n w e c o n d i t i o n o n d e c l i n i n g v o l u m e t r e n d a s w e l l , t h e s t a t i s t i c a l s i g n i f i c a n c e d e c l i n e s
f o r m o s t p a t t e r n s , b u t i n c r e a s e s t h e s t a t i s t i c a l s i g n i f i c a n c e o f T B O T p a t t e r n s . I n c o n t r a s t ,
c o n d i t i o n i n g o n i n c r e a s i n g v o l u m e t r e n d y i e l d s a n i n c r e a s e i n t h e s t a t i s t i c a l s i g n i f i c a n c e o f
B T O P p a t t e r n s . T h i s d i f f e r e n c e m a y s u g g e s t a n i m p o r t a n t r o l e f o r v o l u m e t r e n d i n T B O T
a n d B T O P p a t t e r n s . T h e d i f f e r e n c e b e t w e e n t h e i n c r e a s i n g a n d d e c r e a s i n g v o l u m e - t r e n d
c o n d i t i o n a l d i s t r i b u t i o n s i s s t a t i s t i c a l l y i n s i g n i f i c a n t f o r a l m o s t a l l t h e p a t t e r n s ( t h e s o l e
e x c e p t i o n i s t h e T B O T p a t t e r n ) . T h i s d r o p i n s t a t i s t i c a l s i g n i f i c a n c e m a y b e d u e t o a l a c k
o f p o w e r o f t h e K - S t e s t g i v e n t h e r e l a t i v e l y s m a l l s a m p l e s i z e s o f t h e s e c o n d i t i o n a l r e t u r n s
( s e e T a b l e I f o r f r e q u e n c y c o u n t s ) .
T a b l e V I I I r e p o r t s c o r r e s p o n d i n g r e s u l t s f o r t h e N a s d a q s a m p l e a n d a s i n T a b l e V I , i n
c o n t r a s t t o t h e N Y S E / A M E X r e s u l t s , h e r e a l l t h e p a t t e r n s a r e s t a t i s t i c a l l y s i g n i f i c a n t a t
t h e 5 p e r c e n t l e v e l . T h i s i s e s p e c i a l l y s i g n i f i c a n t b e c a u s e t h e t h e N a s d a q . s a m p l e e x h i b i t s f a r
f e w e r p a t t e r n s t h a n t h e N Y S E / A M E X s a m p l e ( s e e T a b l e s I a n d I I ) , h e n c e t h e K - S t e s t i s
l i k e l y t o h a v e l o w e r p o w e r i n t h i s c a s e .
A s w i t h t h e N Y S E / A M E X s a m p l e , v o l u m e t r e n d s e e m s t o p r o v i d e l i t t l e i n c r e m e n t a l
i n f o r m a t i o n f o r t h e N a s d a q s a m p l e e x c e p t i n o n e c a s e : i n c r e a s i n g v o l u m e a n d B T O P . A n d
e x c e p t f o r t h e T T O P p a t t e r n , t h e K - S t e s t s t i l l c a n n o t d i s t i n g u i s h b e t w e e n t h e d e c r e a s i n g
a n d i n c r e a s i n g v o l u m e - t r e n d c o n d i t i o n a l d i s t r i b u t i o n s , a s t h e l a s t p a i r o f r o w s o f T a b l e V i i i ' s
f i r s t p a n e l i n d i c a t e s .
I V . M o n t e C a r l o A n a l y s i s
T a b l e s I X a n d X c o n t a i n b o o t s t r a p p e r c e n t i l e s f o r t h e K o l m o g o r o v - S m i r n o v t e s t o f t h e e q u a l -
i t y o f c o n d i t i o n a l a n d u n c o n d i t i o n a l o n e - d a y r e t u r n d i s t r i b u t i o n s f o r N Y S E / A M E X a n d N a s -
d a q s t o c k s , r e s p e c t i v e l y , f r o m 1 9 6 2 t o 1 9 9 6 , a n d f o r m a r k e t - c a p i t a l i z a t i o n q u i n t i l e s , u n d e r
t h e n u l l h y p o t h e s i s o f e q u a l i t y , F o r e a c h o f t h e t w o s e t s o f m a r k e t d a t a , t w o s a m p l e s i z e s ,
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i n 1 a n d i n 2 ,
h a v e
b e e n c h o s e n t o s p a n t h e r a n g e o f f r e q u e n c y c o u n t s o f p a t t e r n s r e p o r t e d
i n T a b l e s I a n d I I . F o r e a c h s a m p l e s i z e m , w e r e s a m p l e o n e - d a y n o r m a l i z e d r e t u r n s ( w i t h
r e p l a c e m e n t ) t o o b t a i n a b o o t s t r a p s a m p l e o f i n 1
o b s e r v a t i o n s , c o m p u t e t h e K o l m o g o r o v -
S m i r n o v t e s t s t a t i s t i c ( a g a i n s t t h e e n t i r e s a m p l e o f o n e - d a y n o r m a l i z e d r e t u r n s ) , a n d r e p e a t
t h i s p r o c e d u r e 1 , 0 0 0 t i m e s . T h e p e r c e n t i l e s o f t h e a s y m p t o t i c d i s t r i b u t i o n a r e a l s o r e p o r t e d
f o r c o m p a r i s o n u n d e r t h e c o l u m n " - y " .
T a b l e s I X a n d X s h o w t h a t f o r a b r o a d r a n g e o f s a m p l e s i z e s a n d a c r o s s s i z e q u i n t i l e s ,
s u b p e r i o d , a n d e x c h a n g e s , t h e b o o t s t r a p d i s t r i b u t i o n o f t h e K o h n o g o r o v - S m i r n o v s t a t i s t i c
i s w e l l a p p r o x i m a t e d b y i t s a s y m p t o t i c d i s t r i b u t i o n ( 2 0 ) .
V . C o n c l u s i o n
I n t h i s p a p e r , w e h a v e p r o p o s e d a n e w a p p r o a c h t o e v a l u a t i n g t h e e f f i c a c y o f t e c h n i c a l a n a l -
y s i s . B a s e d o n s m o o t h i n g t e c h n i q u e s s u c h a s n o n p a r a m e t r i c k e r n e l r e g r e s s i o n , o u r a p p r o a c h
i n c o r p o r a t e s t h e e s s e h c e o f t e c h n i c a l a n a l y s i s : t o i d e n t i f y r e g u l a r i t i e s i n t h e t i m e s e r i e s o f
p r i c e s b y e x t r a c t i n g n o n l i n e a r p a t t e r n s f r o m n o i s y d a t a . W h i l e h u m a n j u d g m e n t i s s t i l l
s u p e r i o r t o m o s t c o m p u t a t i o n a l a l g o r i t h m s i n t h e a r e a o f v i s u a l p a t t e r n r e c o g n i t i o n , r e c e n t
a d v a n c e s i n s t a t i s t i c a l l e a r n i n g t h e o r y h a v e h a d s u c c e s s f u l a p p l i c a t i o n s i n f i n g e r p r i n t i d e n t i -
f i c a t i o n , h a n d w r i t i n g a n a l y s i s , a n d f a c e r e c o g n i t i o n . T e c h n i c a l a n a l y s i s m a y w e l l b e t h e n e x t
f r o n t i e r f o r s u c h m e t h o d s .
W h e n a p p l i e d t o m a n y s t o c k s o v e r m a n y t i m e p e r i o d s , w e f i n d t h a t c e r t a i n t e c h n i c a l
p a t t e r n s d o p r o v i d e i n c r e m e n t a l i n f o r m a t i o n , e s p e c i a l l y f o r N a s d a q s t o c k s . W h i l e t h i s d o e s
n o t n e c e s s a r i l y i m p l y t h a t t e c h n i c a l a n a l y s i s c a n b e u s e d t o g e n e r a t e " e x c e s s " t r a d i n g p r o f i t s ,
i t d o e s r a i s e t h e p o s s i b i l i t y t h a t t e c h n i c a l a n a l y s i s c a n a d d v a l u e t o t h e i n v e s t m e n t p r o c e s s .
M o r e o v e r , o u r m e t h o d s s u g g e s t t h a t t e c h n i c a l a n a l y s i s c a n b e i m p r o v e d b y u s i n g a u t o -
m a t e d a l g o r i t h m s s u c h a s o u r s , a n d t h a t t r a d i t i o n a l p a t t e r n s s u c h a s h e a d - a n d - s h o u l d e r s a n d
r e c t a n g l e s , w h i l e s o m e t i m e s e f f e c t i v e , n e e d n o t b e o p t i m a l . I n p a r t i c u l a r , i t m a y b e p o s s i b l e
t o d e t e r m i n e " o p t i m a l p a t t e r n s " f o r d e t e c t i n g c e r t a i n t y p e s o f p h e n o m e n a i n f i n a n c i a l t i m e
s e r i e s , e . g . , a n o p t i m a l s h a p e f o r d e t e c t i n g s t o c h a s t i c v o l a t i l i t y o r c h a n g e s i n r e g i m e . M o r e -
o v e r , p a t t e r n s t h a t a r e o p t i m a l f o r d e t e c t i n g s t a t i s t i c a l a n o m a l i e s n e e d n o t b e o p t i m a l f o r
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t r a d i n g p r o f i t s , a n d v i c e v e r s a . S u c h c o n s i d e r a t i o n s m a y l e a d t o a n e n t i r e l y n e w b r a n c h o f
t e c h n i c a l a n a l y s i s , o n e b a s e d o n s e l e c t i n g p a t t e r n r e c o g n i t i o n a l g o r i t h m s t o o p t i m i z e s p e c i f i c
o b j e c t i v e f u n c t i o n s . W e h o p e t o e x p l o r e t h e s e i s s u e s m o r e f u l l y i n f u t u r e r e s e a r c h .
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F o o t n o t e s
1 A s i m i l a r a p p r o a c h h a s b e e n p r o p o s e d b y C h a n g a n d O s l e r ( 1 9 9 4 ) a n d O s l e r a n d C h a n g
( 1 9 9 5 ) f o r t h e c a s e o f f o r e i g n - c u r r e n c y t r a d i n g r u l e s b a s e d o n a h e a d - a n d - s h o u i d e r s p a t -
t e r n . T h e y d e v e l o p a n a l g o r i t h m f o r a u t o m a t i c a l l y d e t e c t i n g g e o m e t r i c p a t t e r n s i n p r i c e o r
e x c h a n g e d a t a b y l o o k i n g a t p r o p e r l y d e f i n e d l o c a l e x t r e m a .
2 S e e , f o r e x a m p l e , B e y m e r a n d P o g g i o ( 1 9 9 6 ) , P o g g i o a n d B e y m e r ( 1 9 9 6 ) , a n d R i e s e n h u -
b e r a n d P o g g i o ( 1 9 9 7 ) .
3 f l e s p i t e t h e f a c t t h a t K ( x ) i s a p r o b a b i l i t y d e n s i t y f u n c t i o n , i t p l a y s n o p r o b a b i l i s t i c
r o l e i n t h e s u b s e q u e n t a n a l y s i s — i t i s m e r e l y a c o n v e n i e n t m e t h o d f o r c o m p u t i n g a w e i g h t e d
a v e r a g e , a n d d o e s n o t
i m p l y ,
f o r e x a m p l e , t h a t X i s d i s t r i b u t e d a c c o r d i n g t o K ( x ) ( w h i c h
w o u l d b e a p a r a m e t r i c a s s u m p t i o n ) .
4 H o w e v e r , t h e r e a r e o t h e r b a n d w i d t h - s e l e c t i o n m e t h o d s t h a t y i e l d t h e s a m e a s y m p t o t i c
o p t i m a l i t y p r o p e r t i e s b u t w h i c h h a v e d i f f e r e n t i m p l i c a t i o n s f o r t h e f i n i t e - s a m p l e p r o p e r t i e s
o f k e r n e l e s t i m a t o r s . S e e H ã r d l e ( 1 9 9 0 ) f o r f u r t h e r d i s c u s s i o n .
5 S p e c i f i c a l l y , w e p r o d u c e d f i t t e d c u r v e s f o r v a r i o u s b a n d w i d t h s a n d c o m p a r e d t h e i r e x -
t r e m a t o t h e o r i g i n a l p r i c e s e r i e s v i s u a l l y t o s e e i f w e w e r e f i t t i n g m o r e " n o i s e " t h a n " s i g n a l , "
a n d a s k e d s e v e r a l p r o f e s s i o n a l t e c h n i c a l a n a l y s t s t o d o t h e s a m e . T h r o u g h t h i s i n f o r m a l p r o -
c e s s , w e s e t t l e d o n t h e b a n d w i d t h o f 0 . 3 x h a n d u s e d i t f o r t h e r e m a i n d e r o f o u r a n a l y s i s .
T h i s p r o c e d u r e w a s f o l l o w e d b e f o r e w e p e r f o r m e d t h e s t a t i s t i c a l a n a l y s i s o f S e c t i o n I I I , a n d
w e m a d e n o r e v i s i o n t o t h e c h o i c e o f b a n d w i d t h a f t e r w a r d s .
6 S e e S i m o n o f f ( 1 9 9 6 ) f o r a d i s c u s s i o n o f t h e p r o b l e m s w i t h k e r n e l e s t i m a t o r s a n d a l t e r -
n a t i v e s s u c h a s l o c a l p o l y n o m i a l r e g r e s s i o n .
T A f t e r a l l , f o r t w o c o n s e c u t i v e m a x i m a t o b e l o c a l m a x i m a , t h e r e m u s t b e a l o c a l m i n i m u m
i n b e t w e e n , a n d v i c e v e r s a f o r t w o c o n s e c u t i v e m i n i m a .
8 1 f w e a r e w i l l i n g t o p l a c e a d d i t i o n a l r e s t r i c t i o n s o n m e ) , . e . g . , l i n e a r i t y , w e c a n o b t a i n
c o n s i d e r a b l y m o r e a c c u r a t e i n f e r e n c e s e v e n f o r p a r t i a l l y c o m p l e t e d p a t t e r n s i n a n y f i x e d
w i n d o w .
9 F o r e x a m p l e , C h a n g a n d O s l e r ( 1 9 9 4 ) a n d O s l e r a n d C h a n g ( 1 9 9 5 ) p r o p o s e a n a l g o r i t h m
f o r a u t o m a t i c a l l y d e t e c t i n g h e a d - a n d - s h o u l d e r s p a t t e r n s i n f o r e i g n e x c h a n g e d a t a b y l o o k i n g
a t p r o p e r l y d e f i n e d l o c a l e x t r e m a . T o a s s e s s t h e e f f i c a c y o f a h e a d - a n d - s h o u l d e r s t r a d i n g r u l e ,
t h e y t a k e a s t a n d o n a c l a s s o f t r a d i n g s t r a t e g i e s a n d c o m p u t e t h e p r o f i t a b i l i t y o f t h e s e a c r o s s
a s a m p l e o f e x c h a n g e r a t e s a g a i n s t t h e U . S . d o l l a r . T h e n u l l r e t u r n d i s t r i b u t i o n i s c o m p u t e d
b y a b o o t s t r a p t h a t s a m p l e s r e t u r n s r a n d o m l y f r o m t h e o r i g i n a l d a t a s o a s t o i n d u c e t e m p o r a l
i n d e p e n d e n c e i n t h e b o o t s t r a p p e d t i m e s e r i e s . B y c o m p a r i n g t h e a c t u a l r e t u r n s f r o m t r a d i n g
s t r a t e g i e s t o t h e b o o t s t r a p p e d d i s t r i b u t i o n , t h e a u t h o r s f i n d t h a t f o r t w o o f t h e s i x c u r r e n c i e s
i n t h e i r s a m p l e ( t h e y e n a n d t h e D e u t s c h e m a r k ) , t r a d i n g s t r a t e g i e s b a s e d o n a h e a d a n d
s h o u l d e r s p a t t e r n c a n l e a d t o s t a t i s t i c a l l y s i g n i f i c a n t p r o f i t s . S e e , a l s o , N e f t c i a n d P o l i c a n o
( 1 9 8 4 ) , P r u i t t a n d W h i t e ( 1 9 8 8 ) , a n d B r o c k , L a k o n i s h o k , a n d L e B a r o n ( 1 9 9 2 ) .
' ° I f t h e f i r s t p r i c e o b s e r v a t i o n o f a s t o c k i s m i s s i n g , w e s e t i t e q u a l t o t h e f i r s t n o n - m i s s i n g
p r i c e i n t h e s e r i e s . I f t h e t - t h p r i c e o b s e r v a t i o n i s m i s s i n g , w e s e t i t e q u a l t o t h e f i r s t
n o n - m i s s i n g p r i c e p r i o r t o t .
1 1 F o r t h e N a s d a q s t o c k s , r 1
i s
t h e a v e r a g e t u r n o v e r o v e r t h e f i r s t t h i r d o f t h e s a m p l e , a n d
r 2 . i s t h e a v e r a g e t u r n o v e r o v e r t h e f i n a l t h i r d o f t h e s a m p l e .
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1 2 [ u p a r t i c u l a r , l e t t h e p r i c e p r o c e s s s a t i s f y
d P ( t ) =
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d t + c P ( t ) d W ( t )
( 2 2 )
w h e r e W ( t ) i s a s t a n d a r d B r o w n i a n m o t i o n . T o g e n e r a t e s i m u l a t e d p r i c e s f o r a s i n g l e s e c u r i t y
i n a g i v e n p e r i o d , w e e s t i m a t e t h e s e c u r i t y ' s d r i f t a n d d i f f u s i o n c o e f f i c i e n t s b y m a x i m u m
l i k e l i h o o d a n d t h e n s i m u l a t e p r i c e s u s i n g t h e e s t i m a t e d p a r a m e t e r v a l u e s . A n i n d e p e n d e n t
p r i c e s e r i e s i s s i m u l a t e d f o r e a c h o f t h e 3 5 0 s e c u r i t i e s i n b o t h t h e N Y S E / A M E X a n d t h e
N a s d a q s a m p l e s . F i n a l l y , w e u s e o u r p a t t e r n r e c o g n i t i o n a l g o r i t h m t o d e t e c t t h e o c c u r r e n c e
o f e a c h o f t h e t e n p a t t e r n s i n t h e s i m u l a t e d p r i c e s e r i e s .
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R e f e r e n c e s
A l l e n , F r a n k l i n a n d R i s t o K a r j a l a i n e n , 1 9 9 9 , U s i n g g e n e t i c a l g o r i t h m s t o f i n d t e c h n i c a l
t r a d i n g r u l e s , J o u r n a l o f F i n a n c i a l E c o n o m i c s 5 1 , 2 4 5 — 2 7 1 .
B e y m e r , D a v i d a n d T o m a s o P o g g i o , 1 9 9 6 , I m a g e r e p r e s e n t a t i o n f o r v i s u a l l e a r n i n g , S c i e n c e
2 7 2 , 1 9 0 5 — 1 9 0 9 .
B l u m e , L a w r e n c e , E a s l e y , D a v i d a n d M a u r e e n O ' H a r a , 1 9 9 4 , M a r k e t s t a t i s t i c s a n d t e c h n i c a l
a n a l y s i s : T h e r o l e o f v o l u m e , J o u r n a l o f F i n a n c e 4 9 , 1 5 3 — 1 8 1 .
B r o c k , W i l l i a m , L a k o n i s h o k , J o s e p h a n d B l a k e L e B a r o n , 1 9 9 2 , S i m p l e t e c h n i c a l t r a d i n g
r u l e s a n d t h e s t o c h a s t i c p r o p e r t i e s o f s t o c k r e t u r n s , J o u r n a l o f F i n a n c e 4 7 , 1 7 3 1 — 1 7 6 4 .
B r o w n , D a v i d a n d R o b e r t J e n n i n g s , 1 9 8 9 , O n t e c h n i c a l a n a l y s i s , R e v i e w o f F i n a n c i a l S t u d -
i e s 2 , 5 2 7 — 5 5 1 .
C a m p b e l l , J o h n , L o , A n d r e w W . a n d A . C r a i g M a c K i n l a y , 1 9 9 7 , T h e E c o n o m e t r i c s o f
F i n a n c i a l M a r k e t s . P r i n c e t o n , N J : P r i n c e t o n U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s .
C h a n , L o u i s , J e g a d e e s h , N a r a s i m h a n a n d J o s e p h L a k o n i s h o k , 1 9 9 6 , M o m e n t u m s t r a t e g i e s ,
J o u r n a l o f F i n a n c e 5 1 , 1 6 8 1 — 1 7 1 3 .
C h a n g , K e v i n a n d C a r o l O s l e r , 1 9 9 4 , E v a l u a t i n g c h a r t - b a s e d t e c h n i c a l a n a l y s i s : T h e h e a d -
a n d - s h o u l d e r s p a t t e r n i n f o r e i g n e x c h a n g e m a r k e t s , w o r k i n g p a p e r , F e d e r a l R e s e r v e
B a n k o f N e w Y o r k .
C s á k i , E . , 1 9 8 4 , E m p i r i c a l d i s t r i b u t i o n f u n c t i o n , i n P . K r i s l m a i a h a n d P . S e n , e d s . , H a n d b o o k
o f S t a t i s t i c s , V o l u m e . 4 ( E l s e v i e r S c i e n c e P u b l i s h e r s , A m s t e r d a m , T h e N e t h e r l a n d s ) .
D e G r o o t , M o r r i s , 1 9 8 6 , P r o b a b i l i t y a n d S t a t i s t i c s ( A d d i s o n W e s l e y P u b l i s h i n g C o m p a n y ,
R e a d i n g , M A ) .
E d w a r d s , R o b e r t a n d J o h n M a g e e , 1 9 6 6 , T e c h n i c a l A n a l y s i s o f S t o c k T r e n d s , 5 t h E d i t i o n
( J o h n M a g e e I n c . , B o s t o n , M A ) .
G r u n d y , B r u c e a n d S . M a r t i n , 1 9 9 8 , U n d e r s t a n d i n g t h e n a t u r e o f t h e r i s k s a n d t h e s o u r c e
o f t h e r e w a r d s t o m o m e n t u m i n v e s t i n g , u n p u b l i s h e d w o r k i n g p a p e r , W h a r t o n S c h o o l ,
U n i v e r s i t y o f P e n n s y l v a n i a .
H ã r d l e , W o l f g a n g , 1 9 9 0 , A p p l i e d N o n p a r a m e t r i c R e g r e s s i o n ( C a m b r i d g e U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s ,
C a m b r i d g e , U K ) .
H o l l a n d e r , M y l e s a n d D o u g l a s W o l f e , 1 9 7 3 , N o n p a r a m e t r i c S t a t i s t i c a l M e t h o d s ( J o h n W i l e y
& S o n s , N e w Y o r k , N Y ) .
J e g a d e e s h , N a r a s i m h a n a n d S h e r i d a n T i t m a n , 1 9 9 3 , R e t u r n s t o b u y i n g w i n n e r s a n d s e l l i n g
l o s e r s : I m p l i c a t i o n s f o r s t o c k m a r k e t e f f i c i e n c y , J o u r n a l o f F i n a n c e 4 8 , 6 5 — 9 1 .
L o , A n d r e w W . a n d A . C r a i g M a c K i n l a y , 1 9 8 8 , S t o c k m a r k e t p r i c e s d o n o t f o l l o w r a n d o m
w a l k s : E v i d e n c e f r o m a s i m p l e s p e c i f i c a t i o n t e s t , R e v i e w o f F i n a n c i a l S t u d i e s 1 , 4 1 — 6 6 .
L o , A n d r e w W . a n d A . C r a i g M a c K i n l a y , 1 9 9 7 , M a x i m i z i n g p r e d i c t a b i l i t y i n t h e s t o c k a n d
b o n d m a r k e t s , M a c r o e c o n o m i c D y n a m i c s 1 ( 1 9 9 7 ) , 1 0 2 — 1 3 4 .
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L o , A n d r e w W . a n d A . C r a i g M a c K i n l a y , 1 9 9 9 , A N o n - R a n d o m W a l k D o w n W a l l S t r e e t
( P r i n c e t o n U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , P r i n c e t o n , N J ) .
M a l k i e l , B u r t o n , 1 9 9 6 , A R a n d o m W a l k D o w n W a l l S t r e e t : I n c l u d i n g a L i f e - C y c l e G u i d e
t o P e r s o n a l I n v e s t i n g ( W . W . N o r t o n , N e w Y o r k , N Y ) .
N e e l y , C h r i s t o p h e r , W e l l e r , P e t e r a n d R o b e r t D i t t m a r , 1 9 9 7 , I s t e c h n i c a l a n a l y s i s i n t h e
f o r e i g n e x c h a n g e m a r k e t p r o f i t a b l e ? A g e n e t i c p r o g r a m m i n g a p p r o a c h , J o u r n a l o f
F i n a n c i a l a n d Q u a n t i t a t i v e A n a l y s i s 3 2 , 4 0 5 — 4 2 6 .
N e e l y , C h r i s t o p h e r a n d P e t e r W e l l e r , 1 9 9 8 , T e c h n i c a l t r a d i n g r u l e s i n t h e e u r o p e a n m o n e -
t a r y s y s t e m , w o r k i n g p a p e r , F e d e r a l B a n k o f S t . L o u i s .
N e f t c i , S a l i h , 1 9 9 1 , N a i v e t r a d i n g r u l e s i n f i n a n c i a l m a r k e t s a n d w i e n e r - k o l m o g o r o v p r e d i c -
t i o n t h e o r y : K s t u d y o f t e c h n i c a l a n a l y s i s , J o u r n a l o f B u s i n e s s 6 4 , 5 4 9 — 5 7 1 .
N e f t c i , S a l i h a n d A n d r e w P o l i c a n o , 1 9 8 4 , C a n c h a r t i s t s o u t p e r f o r m t h e m a r k e t ? M a r k e t
e f f i c i e n c y t e s t s f o r ' t e c h n i c a l a n a l y s t ' , J o u r n a l
o f F u t u r e M a r k e t s 4 , 4 6 5 — 4 7 8 .
O s l e r , C a r o l a n d K e v i n C h a n g , 1 9 9 5 , H e a d a n d s h o u l d e r s : N o t j u s t a f l a k y p a t t e r n , S t a f f
R e p o r t N o . 4 , F e d e r a l R e s e r v e B a n k o f N e w Y o r k .
P o g g i o , T o m a s o a n d D a v i d B e y m e r , 1 9 9 6 , R e g u l a r i z a t i o n n e t w o r k s f o r v i s u a l l e a r n i n g , i n
S h r e e N a y a r a n d T o m a s o P o g g i o , e d s . , E a r l y V i s u a l L e a r n i n g ( O x f o r d U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s ,
O x f o r d , U K ) .
P r e s s , W i l l i a m , F l a n n e r y , B r i a n , T e u k o l s k y , S a u l a n d W i l l i a m V e t t e r l i n g , 1 9 8 6 , N u m e r i c a l
R e c i p e s : T h e A r t o f S c i e n t i f i c C o m p u t i n g ( C a m b r i d g e U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , C a m b r i d g e ,
U K ) .
P r u i t t , S t e p h e n a n d R o b e r t W h i t e , 1 9 8 8 , T h e C R I S M A t r a d i n g s y s t e m : W h o s a y s t e c h n i c a l
a n a l y s i s c a n ' t b e a t t h e m a r k e t ? . J o u r n a l o f P o r t f o l i o M a n a g e m e n t 1 4 , 5 5 — 5 8 .
R i e s e n h u b e r , M a x i m i l i a n a n d T o m a s o P o g g i o , 1 9 9 7 , C o m m o n c o m p u t a t i o n a l s t r a t e g i e s i n
m a c h i n e a n d b i o l o g i c a l v i s i o n , i n P r o c e e d i n g s o f I n t e r n a t i o n a l S y m p o s i u m o n S y s t e m
L i f e . T o k y o , J a p a n , 6 7 — 7 5 .
R o u w e n h o r s t , G e e r t , 1 9 9 8 , I n t e r n a t i o n a l m o m e n t u m s t r a t e g i e s , J o u r n a l o f F i n a n c e 5 3 ,
2 6 7 — 2 8 4 .
S i m o n o f f , J e f f r e y , 1 9 9 6 , S m o o t h i n g M e t h o d s i n S t a t i s t i c s ( S p r i n g e r - V e r l a g , N e w Y o r k , N Y ) :
S m i r n o v , N . , 1 9 3 9 a , S u r l e s é c a r t s d e l a c o u r b e d e d i s t r i b u t i o n e m p i r i q u e , E e c . M a t h .
( M a t . S b o r n . ) 6 , 3 — 2 6 .
S m i r n o v , N . , 1 9 3 9 b , O n t h e e s t i m a t i o n o f t h e d i s c r e p a n c y b e t w e e n e m p i r i c a l c u r v e s o f
d i s t r i b u t i o n f o r t w o i n d e p e n d e n t s a m p l e s , B u l l e t i n . M a t h . U n i v . M o s c o w 2 , 3 — 1 4 .
T a b e l l , A n t h o n y a n d E d w a r d T a b e l l , 1 9 6 4 , T h e c a s e f o r t e c h n i c a l a n a l y s i s , F i n a n c i a l A n a -
l y s t J o u r n a l 2 0 , 6 7 — 7 6 .
T r e y n o r , J a c k a n d R o b e r t F e r g u s o n , 1 9 8 5 , I n d e f e n s e o f t e c h n i c a l a n a l y s i s , J o u r n a l o f
F i n a n c e 4 0 , 7 5 7 — 7 7 3 .
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F i g u r e V I I I . D i s t r i b u t i o n o f p a t t e r n s i n N Y S E / A M E X s a m p l e .
3 4
( a )
( b )
o o
: °
0 0
v ; % 0 4
* —
0 0 0 0
0 0 0
0
0
( c )
( a )
( 0 )
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F i g u r e V I I I . ( c o n t i n u e d ) .
3 5
( g )
( h )
0
( i )
( j )
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4
F i g u r e I X . D i s t r i b u t i o n o f p a t t e r n s i n N A S D A Q s a m p l e .
3 6
C , )
( b )
_ g r —
0 0
o c o
0 %
•
o . ° 4 t 0
0 0 0 0 0 • t
0
0 8
0 o c :
4 o
o
0 0
. 0
• ° _ — 0 %
0
0 0
( c )
( d Y
( 0 )
( I )
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m ' —
3 7
C s )
( h )
( i )
c i )
F i g u r e I X . ( c o n t i n u e d ) .
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T a b l e I
F r e q u e n c y c o u n t s f o r 1 0 t e c h n i c a l i n d i c a t o r s d e t e c t e d a m o n g N Y S E / A M E X s t o c k s f r o m 1 9 6 2 t o
1 9 9 6 , i n 5 - y e a r s u b p e r i o d s , i n s i z e q u i n t i l e s , a n d i n a s a m p l e o f s i m u l a t e d g e o m e t r i c B r o w n i a n
m o t i o n . I n e a c h 5 - y e a r s u b p e r i o d , 1 0 s t o c k s p e r q u i n t i l e a r e s e l e c t e d a t r a n d o m a m o n g s t o c k s w i t h
a t l e a s t 8 0 % n o n - m i s s i n g p r i c e s , a n d e a c h s t o c k ' s p r i c e h i s t o r y i s s c a n n e d f o r a n y o c c u r r e n c e o f t h e
f o l l o w i n g 1 0 t e c h n i c a l i n d i c a t o r s w i t h i n t h e s u b p e r i o d : h e a d - a n d - s h o u l d e r s ( H S ) , i n v e r t e d h e a d -
a n d - s h o u l d e r s ( I R S ) , b r o a d e n i n g t o p ( B T O P ) , b r o a d e n i n g b o t t o m ( B B O T ) , t r i a n g l e t o p ( T T O P ) ,
t r i a n g l e b o t t o m ( T B O T ) , r e c t a n g l e t o p ( R T O P ) , r e c t a n g l e b o t t o m ( R B O T ) , d o u b l e t o p ( D T O P ) ,
a n d d o u b l e b o t t o m ( D B O T ) . T h e ' S a m p l e ' c o l u m n i n d i c a t e s w h e t h e r t h e f r e q u e n c y c o u n t s a r e
c o n d i t i o n e d o n d e c r e a s i n g v o l u m e t r e n d ( ' r ( \ ) ' ) , i n c r e a s i n g v o l u m e t r e n d ( " r ( 4 ' ) ,
u n c o n d i t i o n a l
( ' E n t i r e ' ) , o r f o r a s a m p l e o f s i m u l a t e d g e o m e t r i c B r o w n i a n m o t i o n w i t h p a r a m e t e r s c a l i b r a t e d t o
m a t c h t h e d a t a ( ' S i m . G B M ' ) .
S a m p l e
R a w U S I H S
B T O P B B O T T T O P T B O T
R T O P R U O T D T O P D B O T
A l l S t o c k s , 1 9 6 2 t o 1 9 9 6
E n t i r e
4 2 3 , 5 5 6
1 6 1 1 1 6 5 4 7 2 5
7 4 8
1 2 9 4
1 1 9 3 1 4 8 2
1 6 1 6 2 0 7 6 2 0 7 5
S i m . G E M
4 2 3 , 5 5 6
5 7 7 5 7 8 1 2 2 7
1 0 2 8
1 0 4 9
1 1 7 6
1 2 2 1 1 3
5 3 5
5 7 4
r ( N )
—
6 5 5 5 9 3 1 4 3
2 2 0
6 6 6
7 1 0
5 8 2
6 3 7 6 9 1 9 7 4
r ( , ' )
—
5 5 3 6 1 4 4 0 9
3 3 7
3 0 0
2 2 2 5 2 3
5 5 2 7 7 6 5 3 3
.
S m a l l e s t Q u i n t i l e , 1 9 6 2 t o 1 9 9 6
.
E n t i r e
8 4 , 3 6 3
1 8 2 1 8 1 7 8
9 7
2 0 3
1 5 9 2 6 5 3 2 0
2 6 1 2 7 1
S i m . G B M
8 4 , 3 6 3
8 2 9 9 2 7 9
2 5 6
2 6 9
2 9 5 1 8 1 6
1 2 9 1 2 7
, - ( . , . )
—
9 0
S i
1 3 4 2
1 2 2
1 1 9
1 1 3
1 3 1 7 8
1 6 1
r ( i ' )
—
5 8 7 6
5 1
3 7
4 1 2 2
9 9 1 2 0 1 2 4
6 4
.
.
2 n d Q u i n t i l e , 1 9 6 2 t o 1 9 9 6
E n t i r e
8 3 , 9 8 6
3 0 9 3 2 1 1 4 6
1 5 0
2 5 5
2 2 8 2 9 9
3 2 2 3 7 2 4 2 0
S i m . G E M
8 3 , 9 8 6
1 0 8
1 0 5 2 9 1
2 5 1
2 6 1
2 7 8 2 0 1 7
1 0 6 1 2 6
T ( N )
—
1 3 3
1 2 6 2 5
4 8
1 3 5
1 4 7
1 3 0
1 4 9
1 1 3 2 1 1
, - ( , )
—
1 1 2
1 2 6
9 0 6 3
5 5
3 9
1 0 4 1 1 0
1 5 3 1 0 7
3 r d Q u i o t i l e , 1 9 6 2 t o 1 9 9 6
E n t i r e
8 4 , 4 2 0
3 6 1 3 8 8
1 4 5 1 6 1
2 9 1
2 4 7
3 3 4 3 9 9 4 5 8
4 4 3
S i m . G E M
8 4 , 4 2 0
1 2 2
1 2 0 2 6 8 2 2 2
2 1 2
2 4 9
2 4
3 1
1 1 5 1 2 5
r ( N )
—
1 5 2
1 3 1
2 0 4 9
1 5 1
1 4 9 1 3 0
1 6 0
1 5 4 2 1 5
, - ( , ' )
—
1 2 5 1 4 6
8 3 6 6
6 7 4 4 1 2 1
1 4 2
1 7 9 1 0 6
4 t h Q u i n t i l e , 1 9 6 2 t o 1 9 9 6
E n t i r e
8 4 , 7 8 0
3 3 2 3 1 7
1 7 6 1 7 3
2 6 2
2 5 5 2 5 9
2 6 4 4 2 4
4 2 0
S i m . G B M
8 4 , 7 8 0
1 4 3 1 2 7
2 4 9 2 1 0
1 8 3
2 1 0
3 5
2 4
1 1 6
1 2 2
, . ( ' . , )
—
1 3 1
1 1 5 3 6 4 2
1 3 8
1 4 5 8 5
9 7
1 4 4 1 8 4
r ( , )
—
1 1 0 1 2 6
1 0 3
8 9
5 6
5 5 1 0 2
9 6 1 4 7 1 1 8
L a r g e s t Q u i n t i l e , 1 9 6 2 t o 1 9 9 6
E n t i r e
8 6 , 0 0 7
4 2 7 4 4 7
1 8 0 1 6 7
2 8 3
3 0 4
3 2 5 3 1 1
5 6 1 5 2 1
S i m . G E M
8 6 , 0 0 7
1 2 2
1 2 7
1 4 0
8 9
1 2 4 1 4 4 2 5 2 5
6 9
7 4
t ( N )
—
1 4 9
1 4 0
4 9
3 9 1 2 0
1 5 0
1 2 4 1 0 0
2 0 2 2 0 3
.
—
1 4 8
1 4 0 8 2
8 2
8 1 6 2
9 7 8 4
1 7 3 1 3 8
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T a b l e I ( c o n t i n u e d )
S a m p l e
R a w U S
I l l S E T O P B B O T f l O P T B O T a T O P R B O T D T O P D B O T
A l l S t o c k s , 1 9 6 2 t o 1 9 6 6
• E n t i r e
5 5 , 2 5 4
2 7 6
2 7 8
S i m . G B M 5 5 , 2 5 4
5 6 5 8
7 ( N )
— 1 0 4
8 8
9 6 1 1 2
8 5 1 0 3
1 7 9
1 6 5
1 4 4
1 2 6 1 2 9 1 3 9
2 6 2 9
9 3
1 0 9
4 4
3 9
3 7
2 5
3 1 6
3 5 4 3 5 6 3 5 2
9 1 6
6 0
6 8
1 3 0 1 4 1
1 1 3 1 8 8
1 3 0 1 2 2 1 3 7 8 8
A l l S t o c k s , 1 9 6 7 t o 1 9 7 1
E n t i r e
6 0 , 2 9 9
1 7 9 1 7 5
S i m . G E M 6 0 , 2 9 9
9 2 7 0
7 ( N )
—
6 8 6 4
r ( , )
—
7 1 6 9
1 1 2 1 3 4 2 2 7
1 7 2 1 1 5 1 1 7 2 3 9 2 5 8
1 6 7
1 4 8 1 5 0
1 8 0
1 9 1 6 8 4
7 7
1 6
4 5 1 2 6
1 1 1
4 2
3 9
8 0 1 4 3
6 8 5 7 4 7 2 9 4 1 4 1
8 7 5 3
A l l S t o c k s , 1 9 7 2 t o 1 9 7 6
A l l S t o c k s , 1 9 7 7 t o 1 9 8 1
—
1 0 1 1 0 4
2 8 3 0 9 3 1 0 4 7 0 9 5
1 0 9
1 2 4
—
8 9 9 4 5 1 6 2
4 6
4 0 7 3
6 8 1 1 6 8 5
A l l S t o c k s , 1 9 8 7 t o 1 9 9 1
1 0 4
9 8
1 6 8 1 3 2
1 6 3 0
6 8 4 3
A l l S t o c k s , 1 9 9 2 t o 1 9 9 6
E n t i r e
6 2 , 1 9 1
2 9 9
3 3 6
S i m . G E M 6 2 , 1 9 1
8 8 7 8
r ( N )
—
1 0 9
1 3 2
—
1 0 6 1 0 5
1 0 2 1 0 2 1 7 3
1 9 4 2 9 2
3 1 5 3 8 9 3 6 8
1 3 2 1 2 4
1 4 3 1 5 0 1 8 2 6
5 6 8 8
1 7 2 4
8 0
1 1 0
1 2 3 1 3 6 1 4 9 1 4 5
5 8 4 2 5 0 3 5 9 2
9 6 1 4 3 1 0 4
E n t i r e
5 9 , 9 1 5
1 5 2 1 6 2 8 2 9 3
1 6 5
1 3 6
1 7 1
1 8 2 2 1 8 2 2 3
S i m . G E M 5 9 , 9 1 5
7 5
8 5 1 8 3 1 5 4 1 5 6
1 7 8
1 6 1 0
7 0 7 1
7 ( N )
—
6 4 5 5 1 6 2 3
8 8
7 8
6 0
6 4
5 3
9 7
r ( , )
—
5 4 6 2 4 2
: 5 0
3 2 2 1 6 1 6 7 8 0 5 9
E n t i r e
6 2 , 1 3 3
2 2 3 2 0 6 1 3 4
1 1 0 1 8 8 1 6 7 1 4 6 1 8 2 2 7 4 2 9 0
S u n . G U M 6 2 , 1 3 3
8 3 8 8 2 4 5
2 0 0 1 8 8 2 1 0 1 8
1 2
9 0 1 1 5
—
1 1 4
—
5 6
6 1
9 3
2 4
7 8
3 9 1 0 0
4 4 3 5
9 7
3 6
5 4
5 3
6 0
7 1
8 2
1 1 3
1 4 0
7 6
A l l S t o c k s , 1 9 8 2 t o 1 9 8 6
E n t i r e
6 1 , 9 8 4
2 4 2 2 5 6 1 0 6
1 0 8 1 8 2 1 9 0 1 8 2
2 0 7 3 1 3 2 9 9
S i m . G U M 6 1 , 9 8 4
1 1 5 1 2 0 1 8 8 1 4 4 1 5 2
1 6 9 3 1
2 3 9 9 8 7
E n t i r e
6 1 , 7 8 0
2 4 0
2 4 1
S i m . G E M 6 1 , 7 8 0
6 8 7 9
7 ( N )
—
9 5
8 9
r ( , )
—
8 1
7 9
1 8 0
1 6 9 2 6 0
2 5 9 2 8 7 2 8 5
1 3 1 1 5 0
1 1
1 0 7 6 6 8
8 6 1 0 1 1 0 3 • 1 0 2
1 0 5 1 3 7
5 3 3 6 7 3
8 7 1 0 0 6 8
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T a b l e I I
F r e q u e n c y c o u n t s f o r 1 0 t e c h n i c a l i n d i c a t o r s d e t e c t e d a m o n g N A S D A Q s t o c k s f r o m 1 9 6 2 t o 1 9 9 6 ,
i n 5 - y e a r s u b p e r i o d s , i n s i z e q u i n t i l e s , a n d i n a s a m p l e o f s i m u l a t e d g e o m e t r i c B r o w n i a n m o t i o n .
I n e a c h 5 - y e a r s u b p e r i o d , 1 0 s t o c k s p e r q u i n t i l e a r e s e l e c t e d a t r a n d o m a m o n g s t o c k s w i t h a t
l e a s t 8 0 % n o n - m i s s i n g p r i c e s , a n d e a c h s t o c k ' s p r i c e h i s t o r y i s s c a n n e d f o r a n y o c c u r r e n c e o f t h e
f o l l o w i n g 1 0 t e c h n i c a l i n d i c a t o r s w i t h i n t h e s u b p e r i o d : h e a d - a n d - s h o u l d e r s ( H S ) , i n v e r t e d h e a d -
a n d - s h o u l d e r s ( I R S ) , b r o a d e n i n g t o p ( B T O P ) , b r o a d e n i n g b o t t o m ( B B O T ) , t r i a n g l e t o p ( T T O P ) ,
t r i a n g l e b o t t o m ( T B O T ) , r e c t a n g l e t o p ( R T O P ) , r e c t a n g l e b o t t o m ( R B O T ) , d o u b l e t o p ( D T O P ) ,
a n d d o u b l e b o t t o m ( D B O T ) . T h e ' S a m p l e ' c o l u m n i n d i c a t e s w h e t h e r t h e f r e q u e n c y c o u n t s a r e
c o n d i t i o n e d o n d e c r e a s i n g v o l u m e t r e n d ( ' r ( N ) ' ) ,
i n c r e a s i n g
v o l u m e t r e n d ( ' r ( 4 ' ) ,
u n c o n d i t i o n a l
( ' E n t i r e ' ) , o r f o r a s a m p l e o f s i m u l a t e d g e o m e t r i c B r o w n i a n m o t i o n w i t h p a r a m e t e r s c a l i b r a t e d t o
m a t c h t h e d a t a ( ' S i m . G B M ' ) .
S a m p l e
R a w 1 1 5
1 1 1 5 E T O P B B O T f l o p T B O T
E T O P R B O T D T O P
D B O T
A l l S t o c k s , 1 9 6 2 t o
1 9 9 6
E n t i r e
4 1 1 , 0 1 0
9 1 9 8 1 7 4 1 4
5 0 8 8 5 0
7 8 9
1 1 3 4 1 3 2 0
1 2 0 8
1 1 4 7
S u n . G B M
4 1 1 , 0 1 0
4 3 4 4 4 7
1 2 9 7 1 1 3 9
1 1 6 9 1 3 0 9
9 6 9 1 5 6 7 5 7 9
r ( N )
—
4 0 8 2 6 8
6 9 1 3 3 4 2 9
4 6 0 4 8 8 5 5 0
3 3 9
5 8 0
r ( . , )
—
2 8 4 3 2 5 2 3 4 2 0 9
1 8 5 1 2 5
3 9 1 4 6 1 4 7 4
2 2 9
S m a l l e s t Q u i n t i e , 1 9 6 2 t o 1 9 9 6
E n t i r e
8 1 , 7 5 4
8 4 6 4 4 1
7 3 1 1 1
9 3 1 6 5
2 1 8
1 1 3 1 2 5
S h n . G E M
8 1 , 7 5 4
8 5 8 4 3 4 1
2 8 9
3 3 4 3 6 7
1 1 1 2 1 4 0 1 2 5
t ( N )
—
3 6
2 5
6
2 0
5 6
5 9
7 7 1 0 2 3 1 8 1
r ( , )
—
3 1 2 3 3 1 3 0 2 4
1 5
5 9 8 5
4 6 1 7
2 n d Q u i n t i l e , 1 9 6 2 t o 1 9 9 6
E n t i r e
8 1 , 3 3 6
1 9 1 1 3 8 6 8 8 8
1 6 1 1 4 8
2 4 2
3 0 5 2 1 9 1 7 6
S i m . G B M
8 1 , 3 3 6
6 7
8 4 2 4 3
2 2 5
2 1 9
2 2 9 2 4 1 2
9 9
1 2 4
7 ( N )
—
9 4
5 1
1 1
2 8
8 6 1 0 9 1 1 1 1 3 1
6 9
1 0 1
r ( , )
—
6 6 5 7 4 6
3 8 4 5 2 2
8 5
1 2 0 9 0
4 2
3 r d Q u i n t i l e ,
1 9 6 2 t o
1 9 9 6
E n t i r e
8 1 , 7 7 2
2 2 4 1 8 6 1 0 5
1 2 1
1 8 3
1 5 5
2 3 5 2 4 4 2 7 9 2 6 7
S i m . G E M
8 1 , 7 7 2
6 9
8 6
2 2 7 2 1 0 2 1 4
2 3 9
1 5
1 4
1 0 5
1 0 0
r ( . . )
—
1 0 8 6 6 2 3 3 5
8 7 9 1
9 0 8 4 7 8 1 4 5
r ( i )
—
7 1 7 9 5 6 4 9
3 9
2 9
8 4 8 6 1 2 2 5 8
4 t h Q u i n t i l e , 1 9 6 2 t o
1 9 9 6
E n t i r e
8 2 , 7 2 7
2 1 2
2 1 4 9 2
1 1 6
1 8 7 1 7 9
2 9 6 3 0 3 2 8 9 2 9 7
S i m . G B M
8 2 , 7 2 7
1 0 4 9 2 2 4 2
2 1 9 2 0 9
2 5 5 2 3
2 6
1 1 5
9 7
r ( , . )
—
8 8 6 8 1 2
2 6 1 0 1
1 0 1 1 2 7 1 4 1 7 7 1 4 3
r ( , )
—
6 2 8 3
5 7
5 6
3 4
2 2
1 0 4
9 3 1 1 8 6 6
L a r g e s t Q u i n t i l e , 1 9 6 2 t o
1 9 9 6
E n t i r e
8 3 , 4 2 1
2 0 8
2 1 5 1 0 8
1 1 0
2 0 8 2 1 4 1 9 6 2 5 0
3 0 8
2 8 2
S i m . G E M
8 3 , 4 2 1
1 0 9
1 0 1 2 4 4
1 9 6
1 9 3
2 1 9
2 3
2 7
1 0 8 1 3 3
7 ( N )
—
8 2 5 8 1 7 2 4
9 9 1 0 0
8 3 9 2 8 4 1 1 0
i - ( , )
5 4 8 3 4 4
3 6 4 3
3 7 5 9 7 7 9 8 4 6
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T a b l e I I ( c o n t i n u e d )
S a m p l e
R a w
E S I H S B T O P B B O T f l o p T B O T R T O P R B O T D T O P D B O T
A l l S t o c k s , 1 9 6 2
t o
1 9 6 6
E n t i r e
5 5 , 9 6 9
2 7 4 2 6 8
S l i m . G B M 5 5 , 9 6 9
6 9 6 3
—
1 2 9 9 9
—
8 3 1 0 3
E n t i r e
6 0 , 5 6 3
1 1 5
1 2 0
S l u t G B M 6 0 , 5 6 3 5 8
6 1
' - ( N )
—
6 1 2 9
T ( / )
—
2 4 5 7
E n t i r e
6 1 , 9 7 2
5 6 5 3
S i m . G B M 6 1 , 9 7 2 9 0 8 4
—
7
7
—
6 6
E n t i r e
6 1 , 1 1 0
7 1 6 4
S i m . G E M 6 1 , 1 1 0 . .
8 6
9 0
T ( N )
—
3 7
1 9
—
2 1 2 5
7 2
1 6 3
1 0
4 8
9 9
1 8 2 1 4 4
2 8 8 3 2 9 3 2 6 3 4 2
1 2 3
1 3 7 1 4 9 2 4 2 2
7 7 9 0
2 3
1 0 4
9 8 1 1 5 1 3 6 9 6 2 1 0
5 1
3 7 2 3
1 0 1 1 1 6 1 4 4 6 4
A l l S t o c k s , 1 9 6 7 t o 1 9 7 1
1 0 4
1 2 3
2 2 7 1 7 1
6 5
8 3
1 9 6
2 0 0
1 9 4
1 8 4
1 8 1
1 8 8 9 8 9 0 8 3
1 5 4 0
1 2 7
1 2 3 2 6 3 9
4 9 1 3 7
7 1
5 1
4 5 1 9
2 5 1 6 8 6 1 7
5 0
2 2 9
1 1
3 3
A l l S t o c k s , 1 9 7 2 t o 1 9 7 6
A l l S t o c k s , 1 9 8 7 t o 1 9 9 1
A l l S t o c k s , 1 9 9 2 t o 1 9 9 6
1 5 5
8 8
6 9
5 5
E n t i r e
5 9 , 0 8 8
2 1 1 1 6 2
S i m . G E M 5 9 , 0 8 8 4 0 5 5
' - ( N )
—
9 0
6 4
—
8 4 7 1
8 7
1 9 8
2 4
5 2
E n t i r e
5 1 , 4 4 6
3 4
3 0
1 4
3 0
2 9 2 8
5 1 5 5 5 5 5 8
S i m . G B M 5 1 , 4 4 6
3 2 3 7 1 1 5
1 1 3
1 0 7 1 1 0
5 6 4 6 4 6
' - ( N )
—
5
4
0 4
5 7
1 2
8
3
8
' - ( A )
—
8
7
1 2
2
0 5 1 2
8 3
A l l S t o c k s , 1 9 7 7 t o 1 9 8 1
4 1 3 6
5 2
7 3 5 7 6 5 8 9 9 6
2 3 6
1 6 5 1 7 6
2 1 2 1 9 1 9 1 1 0
9 8
1
2
4
8 1 2 1 2
7
9
5
1
4
0 5 8 7 6
A l l S t o c k s , 1 9 8 2 t o 1 9 8 6
E n t i r e
6 0 , 8 6 2
1 5 8 1 2 0
S i m . G E M 6 0 , 8 6 2 5 9 5 7
—
7 9 4 6
r ( , )
—
5 8
5 6
1 6 2
1 6 8 1 4 7
1 7 4 2 3 2 1
9 7 9 8
8
1 4
. 4 6 5 8
4 5
5 2
4 0 4 8
2 4 .
1 8
2 6 2 2
4 2
4 2 3 8 2 4
6 1
1 2 0
1 0 9 2 6 5 3 1 2 1 7 7
1 8 7
2 0 5 2 4 4
7 7
7 9
1 9
7 3
6 9 1 3 0
1 4 0
5 0
3 0
2 6 2 8 1 0 0
1 2 2
8 9
1 1 5
1 4 3
1 5 7 2 9 9 3 6 1
2 4 5 1 9 9
1 9 9 2 1 6
2 3 2
9 8
6 8 7 6
3 1 7 0
9 7 1 4 8 1 6 3
9 4 9 9
5 6 4 5
3 3
1 1 3 1 4 5
1 0 2
6 0
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T a b l e I I I
S u m m a r y s t a t i s t i c s ( m e a n , s t a n d a r d d e v i a t i o n , s k e w n e s s , a n d e x c e s s k u r t o s i s ) o f r a w a n d c o n d i -
t i o n a l 1 - d a y n o r m a l i z e d r e t u r n s o f N Y S E / A M E X s t o c k s f r o m 1 9 6 2 t o 1 9 9 6 , i n 5 - y e a r s u b p e r i o d s ,
a n d i n s i z e q u i n t i l e s . C o n d i t i o n a l r e t u r n s a r e d e f i n e d a s t h e d a i l y r e t u r n t h r e e d a y s f o l l o w i n g
t h e c o n c l u s i o n o f a n o c c u r r e n c e o f o n e o f 1 0 t e c h n i c a l i n d i c a t o r s : h e a d - a n d - s h o u l d e r s ( H S ) , i n -
v e r t e d h e a d - a n d - s h o u l d e r s ( I l l S ) , b r o a d e n i n g t o p ( B T O P ) , b r o a d e n i n g b o t t o m ( B B O T ) , t r i a n g l e
t o p ( T T O P ) , t r i a n g l e b o t t o m ( T R O T ) , r e c t a n g l e t o p ( R T O P ) , r e c t a n g l e b o t t o m ( R B O T ) , d o u b l e
t o p ( D T O P ) , a n d d o u b l e b o t t o m ( D B O T ) . A l l r e t u r n s h a v e b e e n n o r m a l i z e d b y s u b t r a c t i o n o f
t h e i r m e a n s a n d d i v i s i o n b y t h e f t s t a n d a r d d e v i a t i o n s .
M o m e n t
R a w 1 1 5
I R S
B T O P B B O T f l o p T B O T
R T O P
R B O T D T O P
D E O T
A n S t o c k s ,
1 9 6 2 t o
1 9 9 6
M e a n
S . D .
S k e w
K u r t
— 0 . 0 0 0
1 . 0 0 0
0 . 3 4 5
8 . 1 2 2
— 0 . 0 3 8
0 . 8 6 7
0 . 1 3 5
2 . 4 2 8
0 . 0 4 0
0 . 9 3 7
0 . 6 6 0
4 . 5 2 7
— 0 . 0 0 5 — 0 . 0 6 2
0 . 0 2 1
— 0 . 0 0 9
1 . 0 3 5
0 . 9 7 9
0 . 9 5 5
0 . 9 5 9
— 1 . 1 5 1
0 . 0 9 0 0 . 1 3 7 0 . 6 4 3
1 6 . 7 0 1
3 . 1 6 9
3 . 2 9 3
7 . 0 6 1
0 . 0 0 9
0 . 8 6 5
— . 0 . 4 2 0
7 . 3 6 0
0 . 0 1 4
0 . 0 1 7
0 . 8 8 3
0 . 9 1 0
0 . 1 1 0 0 . 2 0 6
4 . 1 9 4
3 . 3 8 6
0 . 0 O 1
0 . 9 9 9
0 . 4 6 0
7 . 3 7 4
S m a l l e s t Q u i n t i l e , 1 9 6 2 t o 1 9 9 6
M e a n
S . D .
S k e w
K u r t
— 0 . 0 0 0
1 . 0 0 0
0 6 9 7
1 0 . 8 7 3
— 0 . 0 1 4
-
0 . 8 5 4
0 . 8 0 2
3 . 8 7 0
0 . 0 3 6
1 . 0 0 2
1 . 3 3 7
7 . 1 4 3
— 0 . 0 9 3
— 0 . 1 8 8
0 . 0 3 6
— 0 . 0 2 0
0 . 9 4 0
0 . 8 5 0 0 . 9 3 7
1 . 1 5 7
— 1 . 7 7 1
— 0 . 3 6 7
0 . 8 6 1
2 . 5 9 2
6 , 7 0 1
0 . 5 7 5
4 . 1 8 5 1 2 . 5 3 2
0 . 0 3 7
0 . 8 3 3
— 0 . 1 8 7
1 . 7 9 3
— 0 . 0 9 3
0 . 0 4 3
0 . 9 8 6
0 . 9 5 0
0 . 4 4 5
0 . 5 1 1
4 . 3 8 4
2 . 5 8 1
— 0 . 0 5 5
0 . 9 6 2
0 . 0 0 2
3 . 9 8 9
M e a n
S . D .
S k e w
K u r t
— 0 . 0 0 0
1 . 0 0 0
0 . 3 9 2
7 . 8 3 6
— 0 . 0 6 9
0 . 7 7 2
0 . 2 2 3
0 . 6 5 7
0 . 1 4 4
1 . 0 3 1
1 . 1 2 8
6 . 7 3 4
2 n d Q t h n t i l e , 1 9 6 2 t o 1 9 9 6
0 . 0 6 1
— 0 . 1 1 3
0 . 0 0 3 0 . 0 3 5
1 . 2 7 8
1 . 0 0 4
0 . 9 1 3
0 . 9 6 5
— 3 . 2 9 6
0 . 4 8 5
— 0 . 5 2 9
0 . 1 6 6
3 2 . 7 5 0
3 . 7 7 9
3 . 0 2 4
4 . 9 8 7
0 . 0 1 8
0 . 9 7 9
— 1 . 3 7 5
1 7 . 0 4 0
0 . 0 1 9
0 . 0 6 7
0 . 8 6 8
0 . 7 7 6
0 . 4 5 2
0 . 3 9 2
3 . 9 1 4
2 . 1 5 1
.
— 0 . 0 1 1
L 0 6 9
1 . 7 2 8
1 5 . 5 4 4
M e a n
S . D .
S k e w
K u r t
— 0 . 0 0 0
1 . 0 0 0
0 . 2 4 6
7 . 4 6 6
— 0 . 0 4 8
0 . 8 8 8
— 0 . 4 6 5
3 . 2 3 9
— 0 . 0 4 3
0 . 8 5 6
0 . 1 0 7
1 . 6 1 2
3 r d Q u i n t i I e , 1 9 6 2 t o 1 9 9 6
— 0 . 0 7 6 — 0 . 0 5 6
0 . 0 3 6
0 . 0 1 2
0 . 8 9 4
0 . 9 2 5
0 . 9 7 3 0 . 7 9 6
— 0 . 0 2 3
0 . 2 3 3
0 . 5 3 8
0 . 1 6 6
1 . 0 2 4
0 . 6 1 1
2 . 9 9 5
0 . 5 8 6
0 . 0 7 5
0 . 7 9 8
0 . 6 7 8
3 . 0 1 0
0 . 0 2 8
— 0 . 0 3 9
0 . 8 9 2 0 . 9 5 6
— 0 . 6 1 8
0 . 0 1 3
4 . 7 6 9
. 4 . 5 1 7
— 0 . 0 3 4
1 . 0 2 6
— 0 . 2 4 2
3 . 6 6 3
M e a n
S . D .
S k e w
K u r t
— 0 . 0 0 0
1 . 0 0 0
0 . 2 2 2
6 . 4 5 2
— 0 . 0 1 2
0 . 9 6 4
0 . 0 5 5
1 . 4 4 4
0 . 0 2 2
0 . 9 0 3
0 . 5 9 2
1 . 7 4 5
4 t h Q u i n t i l e , 1 9 6 2 t o 1 9 9 6
0 . 1 1 5
0 . 0 2 8
0 . 0 2 2
— 0 . 0 1 4
0 . 9 9 0
1 . 0 9 3
0 . 9 8 6
0 . 9 5 9
0 . 4 5 8
0 . 5 3 7
— 0 . 2 1 7
— 0 . 4 5 6
1 . 2 5 1
2 . 1 6 8
4 . 2 3 7
8 . 3 2 4
— 0 . 1 1 3
0 . 8 5 4
— 0 . 4 1 5
4 . 3 1 1
0 . 0 6 5
0 . 0 1 5
0 . 8 2 1
0 . 8 5 8
0 . 8 2 0
0 . 5 5 0
.
3 . 6 3 2
1 . 7 1 9
— 0 . 0 0 6
0 . 9 9 2
— 0 . 0 6 2
4 . 6 9 1
L a r g e s t Q u i n t i l e , 1 9 6 2 t o 1 9 9 6
M e a n
S . D .
S k e w
K u r t
— 0 . 0 0 0
1 . 0 0 0
0 . 1 7 4
7 . 9 9 2
— 0 . 0 3 8
0 . 8 4 3
0 . 4 3 8
2 . 6 2 1
0 . 0 5 4
0 . 9 2 7
0 . 1 8 2
3 . 4 6 5
— 0 . 0 8 1
— 0 . 0 4 2
0 . 0 1 0
— 0 . 0 4 9
0 . 9 9 7
0 . 9 5 1
0 . 9 6 4
0 . 9 6 5
0 . 4 7 0
— 1 . 0 9 9
0 . 0 8 9
0 . 3 5 7
3 . 2 7 5
6 . 6 0 3
2 . 1 0 7
2 . 5 0 9
0 . 0 0 9
0 . 8 5 0
— 0 . 1 6 7
0 . 8 1 6
0 . 0 6 0
0 . 0 1 8
0 . 8 2 0
0 . 9 7 1
— 0 . 1 4 0
0 . 0 1 1
3 . 1 7 9
3 . 4 9 8
0 . 0 6 7
0 . 9 4 1
0 . 5 1 1
5 . 0 3 5
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T a b l e I I I ( c o n t i n u e d )
M o m e n t
R a w H 5 I H S
E T O P B B O T f l O P T B O T R T O P I t h O T D T O P D B O T
A l l S t o c k s , 1 9 6 2 t o 1 9 6 6
— 0 . 0 0 7 0 . 0 1 1
0 . 0 9 5 — 0 . 1 1 4
— 0 . 0 6 7 0 . 0 5 0
0 . 0 0 5
0 . 0 1 1 — 0 . 0 1 3
1 . 0 0 2
1 . 1 0 9 0 , 9 5 6
0 . 9 2 4
0 . 8 0 1
0 . 8 2 6
0 . 9 3 4
0 . 8 5 0
1 . 0 2 6
0 . 4 4 1
0 . 3 7 2
— 0 . 1 6 5
0 . 4 7 3 — 1 . 2 4 9 0 . 2 3 1
0 . 4 6 7
0 . 5 2 8 0 . 8 6 7
6 . 1 2 8 2 . 5 6 6
2 . 7 3 5 3 . 2 0 8
5 . 2 7 8 1 . 1 0 8
4 . 2 3 4
1 . 5 1 5
7 . 4 0 0
0 . 0 3 3
— 0 . 0 9 1 — 0 . 0 4 0
0 . 0 5 3
0 . 0 0 3
0 . 0 4 0 — 0 . 0 2 0
— 0 . 0 2 2 — 0 0 1 7
0 . 8 9 5 0 . 9 5 5
0 . 8 1 8 0 . 8 5 7
0 . 9 8 1 0 . 8 9 4
0 . 8 3 3
0 . 8 7 3 1 . 0 5 2
0 . 2 7 2
0 . 1 0 8 0 . 2 3 1
0 . 1 6 5
— 1 . 2 1 6 0 . 2 9 3
0 . 1 2 4
— 1 . 1 8 4 — 0 . 3 6 8
4 . 3 9 5
2 . 2 4 7
1 . 4 6 9 4 . 4 2 2
9 . 5 8 6
1 . 6 4 6
3 . 9 7 3
4 . 8 0 8
4 . 2 9 7
0 . 0 6 9 — 0 . 2 3 1
— 0 . 2 7 2 0 . 1 2 2
0 . 0 4 1 0 . 0 8 2
0 . 0 1 1
0 . 1 0 2 — 0 . 0 1 6
1 . 0 2 1
1 . 4 0 6
1 . 1 8 7 0 . 9 5 3
1 . 0 7 8 0 . 8 1 4
0 . 9 9 6
0 . 9 6 0 1 . 0 3 5
1 . 3 0 5 — 3 . 9 8 8
— 0 . 5 0 2
— 0 . 1 9 0
2 . 4 6 0
— 0 . 1 6 7 — 0 . 1 2 9 — 0 . 0 9 1
0 . 3 7 9
6 . 6 8 4
2 7 . 0 2 2
3 . 9 4 7
1 . 2 3 5
1 2 . 8 8 3
0 . 5 0 6
6 . 3 9 9
1 . 5 0 7
3 . 3 5 8
0 . 0 9 0
0 . 1 5 9
0 . 0 7 9
— 0 . 0 3 3
— 0 . 0 3 9
— 0 . 0 4 1
0 . 0 1 9
— 0 . 0 7 1
— 0 . 1 0 0
0 . 9 2 5
0 . 8 2 5 1 . 0 8 5
1 . 0 6 8 1 . 0 1 1
0 . 9 6 1
0 . 8 1 4 0 . 8 5 9 0 . 9 6 2
0 . 4 6 2
0 . 3 6 3 1 . 1 5 1
— 0 . 1 5 8 1 . 2 6 4
— 1 . 3 3 7 — 0 . 3 4 1
— 0 . 4 2 7
— 0 . 8 7 6
1 . 7 2 8
0 . 6 5 7
5 . 0 6 3 2 . 6 7 4
4 . 8 2 6 1 7 . 1 6 1 1 . 4 0 0
3 . 4 1 6
5 . 6 2 2
A l l S t o c k s , 1 9 6 7 t o 1 9 7 1
0 . 0 7 9
— 0 . 0 3 5 — 0 . 0 5 6
0 . 0 2 5 0 . 0 5 7
— 0 . 1 0 1
0 . 1 1 0 0 . 0 9 3 0 . 0 7 9
0 . 9 4 4
0 . 7 9 3
0 . 8 5 0
0 . 8 8 5 0 . 8 8 6 0 . 8 3 1
0 . 8 6 3 1 . 0 8 3 0 . 8 3 5
0 . 6 6 6 0 . 3 0 4
0 . 0 8 5
0 . 6 5 0 0 . 6 9 7
— 1 . 3 9 3
0 . 3 9 5
1 . 3 6 0 0 . 7 0 1
2 . 7 2 5
0 . 7 0 6
0 . 1 4 1
3 . 0 9 9
1 . 6 5 9
8 . 5 9 6
3 . 2 5 4
4 . 4 8 7
1 . 8 5 3
A l l S t o c k s , 1 9 7 2 t o 1 9 7 6
0 . 0 4 3
0 . 1 0 1
— 0 . 1 3 8 — 0 . 0 4 5 — 0 . 0 1 0
— 0 . 0 2 5 — 0 . 0 0 3
— 0 . 0 5 1
— 0 . 1 0 8
0 . 8 1 0
0 . 9 8 5 0 . 9 1 8
0 . 9 4 5 0 . 9 2 2
0 . 8 7 0
0 . 7 5 4
0 . 9 1 4
0 . 9 0 3
0 . 7 1 7 — 0 . 6 9 9
0 . 2 7 2 — 1 . 0 1 4
0 . 6 7 6
0 . 2 3 4
0 . 1 9 9
0 . 0 5 6 — 0 . 3 6 6
1 . 5 6 5
6 . 5 6 2
1 . 4 5 3
5 . 2 6 1
4 . 9 1 2
3 . 6 2 7
2 . 3 3 7
3 . 5 2 0
5 . 0 4 7
A l l S t o c k s , 1 9 7 7 t o 1 9 8 1
— 0 . 0 4 0 0 . 0 7 6 — 0 . 1 1 4
0 . 1 3 5 — 0 . 0 5 0
— 0 . 0 0 4
0 . 0 2 6
0 . 0 4 2
0 . 1 7 8
0 . 8 6 3 1 . 0 1 5
0 . 9 8 9
1 . 0 4 1
1 . 0 1 1 0 . 7 5 5
0 . 9 5 6
0 . 8 2 7
1 . 0 9 5
0 . 0 5 2
1 . 5 9 9 — 0 . 0 3 3
0 . 7 7 6
0 . 1 1 0
— 0 . 0 8 4
0 . 5 3 4
0 . 7 6 1
2 . 2 1 4
1 . 0 4 8
4 . 9 6 1 — 0 . 1 2 5
2 . 9 6 4
0 . 9 8 9
1 . 8 7 0
2 . 1 8 4 2 . 3 6 9
1 5 . 2 9 0
A l l S t o c k s , 1 9 8 2 t o 1 9 8 6
M e a n
— 0 . 0 0 0
0 . 0 7 0
S . D .
1 . 0 0 0 0 . 7 9 7
S k e w
0 . 5 6 3
0 . 1 5 9
K u r t 9 . 1 6 1 0 . 6 1 2
M e a n
— 0 . 0 0 0
— 0 . 0 4 4
S . D .
1 . 0 0 0 0 . 8 0 9
S k e w
0 . 3 4 2
0 . 7 5 4
K u r t 5 . 8 1 0 3 . 6 8 4
M e a n
— 0 . 0 0 0 — 0 . 0 3 5
S . D .
1 . 0 0 0 1 . 0 1 5
S k e w
0 . 3 1 6
— 0 . 3 3 4
K u r t
6 . 5 2 0
2 . 2 8 6
M e a n
— 0 . 0 0 0 — 0 . 1 3 8
S . D . 1 . 0 0 0
0 . 7 8 6
S k e w
0 . 4 6 6
— 0 . 3 0 4
K u r t
6 . 4 1 9
1 . 1 3 2
M e a n — 0 . 0 0 0 — 0 . 0 9 9
S . D .
1 . 0 0 0 0 . 8 8 3
S k e w
0 . 4 6 0
0 . 4 6 4
K u r t
6 . 7 9 9
2 . 2 8 0
M e a n
— 0 . 0 0 0 — 0 . 0 3 7
S . D .
1 . 0 0 0 0 . 8 4 8
S k e w — 0 . 0 1 8
— 0 . 5 2 6
K u r t
1 3 . 4 7 8
3 . 8 3 5
M e a n
— 0 . 0 0 0 — 0 . 0 1 4
S . D .
1 . 0 0 0 0 . 9 3 5
S k e w
0 . 3 0 8
0 . 5 4 5
K u r t
8 . 6 8 3
2 . 2 4 9
A l l S t o c k s , 1 9 8 7 t o 1 9 9 1
A l l S t o c k s , 1 9 9 2 t o 1 9 9 6
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T a b l e I V
S u m m a r y s t a t i s t i c s ( m e a n , s t a n d a r d d e v i a t i o n , s k e w n e s s , a n d e x c e s s k u r t o s i s ) o f r a w a n d c o n d i -
t i o n a l 1 - d a y n o r m a l i z e d r e t u r n s o f N A S D A Q s t o c k s f r o m 1 9 6 2 t o 1 9 9 6 , i n 5 - y e a r s u b p e r i o d s , a n d
i n s i z e q u i n t i l e s . C o n d i t i o n a l r e t u r n s a r e d e f i n e d a s t h e d a i l y r e t u r n t h r e e d a y s f o l l o w i n g t h e c o n -
c l u s i o n o f a n o c c u r r e n c e o f o n e o f 1 0 t e c h n i c a l i n d i c a t o r s : h e a d - a n d - s h o u l d e r s ( H S ) , i n v e r t e d h e a d -
a n d - s h o u l d e r s ( I H S ) , b r o a d e n i n g t o p ( B T O P ) , b r o a d e n i n g b o t t o m ( B B O T ) , t r i a n g l e t o p ( T T O P ) ,
t r i a n g l e b o t t o m ( T B O T ) , r e c t a n g l e t o p ( R T O P ) , r e c t a n g l e b o t t o m ( R B O T ) , d o u b l e t o p ( D T O P ) ,
a n d d o u b l e b o t t o m ( D B O T ) . A l l r e t u r n s h a v e b e e n n o r m a l i z e d b y s u b t r a c t i o n o f t h e i r m e a n s a n d
d i v i s i o n b y t h e i r s t a n d a r d d e v i a t i o n s .
M o m e n t
R a w
1 1 5
I l l S B T O P B B O T f l O P T B O T
I C O P R E O T
D T O P D R O T
A l l S t o c k s , 1 9 6 2 t o 1 9 9 6
M e a n
S . D .
S k e w
K u r t
0 . 0 0 0
1 . 0 0 0
0 . 6 0 8
1 2 . 7 2 8
— 0 . 0 1 6 0 . 0 4 2
0 . 9 0 7
0 . 9 9 4
— 0 . 0 1 7
1 . 2 9 0
3 . 0 3 9 8 . 7 7 4
— 0 . 0 0 9 0 . 0 0 9 — 0 . 0 2 0 0 . 0 1 7
0 . 9 6 0 0 . 9 9 5
0 . 9 8 4
0 . 9 3 2
0 . 3 9 7 0 . 5 8 6 0 . 8 9 5
0 . 7 1 6
3 . 2 4 6 2 . 7 8 3 6 . 6 9 2 3 . 8 4 4
0 . 0 5 2
0 . 9 4 8
0 . 7 1 0
5 . 1 7 3
0 . 0 4 3
0 . 9 2 9
0 . 7 5 5
4 . 3 6 8
0 . 0 0 3
0 . 9 3 3
0 . 4 0 5
4 . 1 5 0
— 0 . 0 3 5
0 . 8 8 0
— 0 . 1 0 4
2 . 0 5 2
M e a n
S . D .
S k e w
K u r t
— 0 . 0 0 0
1 . 0 0 0
0 . 7 5 4
1 5 . 8 5 9
0 . 0 1 8 — 0 . 0 3 2
0 . 8 4 5 1 . 3 1 9
0 . 3 2 5
1 . 7 5 6
1 . 0 9 6 4 . 2 2 1
S m a l l e s t Q u i n t i l e , 1 9 6 2 t o 1 9 9 6
0 . 0 8 7 — 0 . 1 5 3
0 . 0 5 9 0 . 1 0 8
0 . 8 7 4 0 . 8 9 4 1 . 1 1 3 1 . 0 4 4
— 0 . 2 3 9 — 0 . 1 0 9
2 . 7 2 7 2 . 3 0 0
1 . 4 9 0 0 . 5 7 1 1 4 . 2 7 0 1 0 . 5 9 4
0 . 1 3 6
1 . 1 8 7
1 . 7 4 1
8 . 6 7 0
0 . 0 1 3
0 . 9 8 2
0 . 1 9 9
1 . 9 1 8
0 . 0 4 0
0 . 7 7 3
0 . 1 2 6
0 . 1 2 7
0 . 0 4 3
0 . 9 0 6
— 0 . 3 5 8
0 . 7 3 0
M e a n
S . D .
S k e w
K u r t
— 0 . 0 0 0
1 . 0 0 0
0 . 8 4 4
1 6 . 7 3 8
— 0 . 0 6 4
0 . 0 7 6
0 . 8 4 8
0 . 9 9 1
0 . 4 0 6 1 . 8 9 2
2 , 1 2 7
1 1 . 5 6 1
2 n d Q u i n t i l e , 1 9 6 2 t o 1 9 9 6
— 0 . 1 0 9 — 0 . 0 9 3 — 0 . 0 8 5 — 0 . 0 3 8
1 . 1 0 6 1 . 0 2 6
0 . 8 0 5
0 . 9 9 7
— 0 . 1 2 2
0 . 6 3 5
0 . 0 3 6 0 . 4 5 5
2 . 4 9 6
3 . 4 5 8
0 . 6 8 9 1 . 3 3 2
— 0 . 0 6 6
0 . 8 9 8
— 0 . 5 7 9 •
2 . 6 9 9
— 0 . 0 1 5
0 . 8 9 7
0 . 4 1 6
3 . 8 7 1
0 . 0 3 9
1 . 1 1 9
1 . 1 9 6
3 . 9 1 0
— 0 . 0 3 4
0 . 8 2 1
0 . 1 9 0
0 . 7 7 7
.
3 r d Q u i n t i l e , 1 9 6 2 t o 1 9 9 6
M e a n
S . D .
S k e w
K u r t
— 0 . 0 0 0
1 . 0 0 0
0 . 6 9 8
1 2 . 1 6 1
0 . 0 3 3 0 . 0 2 8
0 . 9 3 3
0 . 9 0 6
0 . 2 2 3 0 . 5 2 9
1 . 5 2 0 1 . 5 2 6
0 . 0 7 8 0 . 2 1 0
— 0 . 0 3 0
0 . 0 6 8
0 . 9 3 1 0 . 9 7 1 0 . 8 2 5 1 . 0 0 2
0 . 6 5 6
0 . 3 2 6
0 . 5 3 9 0 . 4 4 2
1 . 0 0 3
0 . 4 3 0
1 . 6 7 3
1 . 0 3 8
0 . 1 1 7
0 . 9 9 2
0 . 8 8 5
2 . 9 0 8
0 . 2 1 0
0 . 9 7 0
0 . 8 2 0
4 . 9 1 5
— 0 . 1 0 9
0 . 9 9 7
0 . 1 6 3
5 . 2 6 6
— 0 . 0 7 5
0 . 9 7 3
0 . 1 2 3
2 . 5 7 3
4 t h Q u i n t i l e , 1 9 6 2 t o 1 9 9 6
M e a n
S . D .
S k e w
K u r t
0 . 0 0 0
1 . 0 0 0
0 . 6 5 5
1 1 . 0 4 3
— 0 . 0 7 9
0 . 0 3 7
0 . 9 1 1
0 . 9 5 7
— 0 . 4 5 6
2 . 6 7 1
2 . 5 2 5
1 9 . 5 9 3
— 0 . 0 0 6
— 0 . 0 4 4 — 0 . 0 8 0
0 . 0 0 7
0 . 9 9 2 0 . 9 7 5 1 . 0 7 6
0 . 8 2 4
— 0 . 1 7 4 0 . 3 8 5 0 . 5 5 4
0 . 7 1 7
2 . 1 6 3
1 . 6 0 1 7 . 7 2 3
3 . 9 3 0
0 . 0 8 4
0 . 8 9 0
0 . 2 9 0
1 . 5 5 5
0 . 0 4 4
0 . 8 5 1
1 . 0 3 4
2 . 9 8 2
0 . 0 3 8
0 . 8 5 7
0 . 1 5 4
2 . 8 0 7
— 0 . 0 4 8
0 . 8 1 9
— 0 . 1 4 9
2 . 1 3 9
L a r g e s t Q u i n t i l e , 1 9 6 2 t o 1 9 9 6
M e a n
S . D .
S k e w
K u r t
0 . 0 0 0
1 . 0 0 0
0 . 1 0 0
7 . 9 7 6
0 . 0 2 6 0 . 0 5 8
0 . 9 5 2 L 0 0 2
— 0 . 2 6 6 — 0 . 1 4 4
5 . 8 0 7
4 . 3 6 7
— 0 . 0 7 0 0 . 0 3 1 0 . 0 5 2 — 0 . 0 1 3
0 . 8 9 5
1 . 0 6 0 1 . 0 7 6 0 . 8 7 1
1 . 6 9 9 1 . 2 2 5
0 . 4 0 9 0 . 0 2 5
8 . 3 7 1
5 . 7 7 8 1 . 9 7 0
2 . 6 9 6
0 . 0 0 1
0 . 7 9 4
0 . 1 0 5
1 . 3 3 6
— 0 . 0 2 4
0 . 9 5 8
1 . 3 0 0
7 . 5 0 3
0 . 0 3 2
. 0 . 8 4 4
0 . 3 1 5
2 . 0 9 1
— 0 . 0 1 8
0 . 8 7 7
— 0 . 3 6 3
2 . 2 4 1
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T a b l e I V ( c o n t i n u e d )
M o m e n t
R a w
H S
1 1 1 5
B T O P B E O T T T O P T E O T R T O P R B O T D T O P D B O T
A l l S t o c k s , 1 9 6 2 t o 1 9 6 6
0 . 0 8 9 — 0 . 4 0 3
— 0 . 0 3 4 — 0 . 1 3 2 — 0 . 4 2 2
— 0 . 0 7 6 0 - 1 0 8 — 0 . 0 0 4 — 0 . 1 6 3
0 . 9 0 8
0 . 5 6 9
0 . 8 0 3
0 . 6 1 8
0 . 8 3 0 0 . 8 8 6 0 . 9 1 0
0 . 9 2 4
0 . 5 6 4
0 . 9 7 3 — 1 . 1 7 6
0 . 0 4 6 — 0 . 0 6 4
- ' - - 1 . 5 0 3
— 2 . 7 2 8
2 . 0 4 7
— 0 . 5 5 1 — 0 . 7 9 1
1 . 8 2 8
0 . 0 7 7
0 . 5 8 7
— 0 . 4 4 4
2 . 1 3 7 1 3 . 3 2 0
9 . 5 1 0
1 . 4 3 4
2 . 0 1 0
A l l S t o c k s , 1 9 8 2 t o 1 9 8 6
0 . 2 0 4
— 0 . 1 3 7
— 0 . 0 0 1 — 0 . 0 5 3
— 0 . 0 2 2 — 0 . 0 2 8
0 . 1 1 6
— 0 . 2 2 4 — 0 . 0 5 2
1 . 4 4 2
0 . 8 0 4 1 . 0 4 0
0 . 9 8 2
1 . 1 5 8
0 . 9 1 0
0 . 8 3 0 0 . 8 6 8
1 . 0 8 2
2 . 1 9 2 0 . 0 0 1
0 . 0 4 8
1 . 3 7 0
1 . 6 9 0
— 0 . 1 2 0
0 . 0 4 8
0 . 0 0 1 — 0 . 0 9 1
1 0 . 5 3 0
0 , 8 6 3
0 . 7 3 2
8 . 4 6 0 - 7 . 0 8 6
0 . 7 8 0
0 . 4 4 4
1 . 1 7 4 0 . 8 1 8
A l l S t o c k s , 1 9 8 7 t o 1 9 9 1
-
0 . 1 2 0
— 0 . 0 8 0
— 0 . 0 3 1 — 0 . 0 5 2
0 . 0 3 8 0 . 0 9 8
0 . 0 4 9
— 0 . 0 4 8
— 0 . 1 2 2 -
- 1 . 1 3 6
0 . 9 2 5
0 . 8 2 6
1 . 0 0 7
0 . 8 7 8 0 . 9 3 6
1 . 0 0 0
0 . 7 7 2
0 . 8 6 0
0 . 9 7 6
— 0 . 3 4 2
0 . 2 3 4
— 0 . 2 4 8
1 . 0 0 2 0 . 2 3 3
0 . 0 2 3
— 0 . 1 0 5
— 0 . 3 7 5
. 5 . 1 8 3
1 . 8 3 9
0 . 7 3 4
2 . 7 9 6 2 . 7 6 8
1 . 0 3 8 .
2 . 3 5 0
0 . 3 1 3
2 . 5 9 8
A l l S t o c k s , 1 9 9 2 t o 1 9 9 6
— 0 . 0 5 8
— 0 . 0 3 3 — 0 . 0 1 3
— 0 . 0 7 8 0 . 0 8 6
— 0 . 0 0 6 — 0 . 0 1 1
0 . 0 0 3
— 0 . 1 0 5
0 . 8 5 4
0 . 9 6 4
1 . 1 0 6
1 . 0 9 3 0 . 9 0 1
0 . 9 7 3 0 . 8 7 9 0 . 9 3 2
0 . 8 7 5
— 0 . 0 1 5
1 . 3 9 9
0 . 1 5 8
— 0 . 1 2 7 0 . 1 5 0
0 . 2 8 3 0 . 2 3 6 0 . 0 3 9 — 0 . 0 9 7
— 0 . 0 5 9
7 . 5 8 4 0 . 6 2 6
2 . 0 1 9
1 . 0 4 0
1 . 2 6 6 1 . 4 4 5 1 . 5 8 3 0 . 2 0 5
M e a n — 0 . 0 0 0 0 . 1 1 6
S . D . 1 . 0 0 0 0 . 9 1 2
S k e w
0 . 5 7 5
0 . 7 1 1
K u r t
6 . 5 5 5
1 . 5 3 8
M e a n — 0 . 0 0 0 — 0 . 1 2 7
S . D .
1 . 0 0 0 0 . 8 6 4
S k e w 0 . 7 3 4
— 0 . 0 9 7
K u r t
5 . 1 9 4
1 . 0 6 0
0 . 0 4 1
0 . 0 9 9
0 . 0 9 0 0 . 0 2 8
— 0 . 0 6 6 0 . 1 0 0 0 . 0 1 0 0 . 0 9 6 0 . 0 2 7
0 . 9 4 9
0 . 9 8 9
1 . 0 3 9 1 . 0 1 5
0 . 8 3 9 0 . 9 2 5 0 . 8 7 3 1 . 0 3 9
0 . 8 4 0
1 . 7 9 4
0 . 2 5 2 L 2 5 8 1 , 6 0 1
0 . 2 4 7
2 . 0 1 5
1 . 0 2 1
0 . 5 3 3
— 0 . 3 5 1
9 . 1 1 5 2 . 5 6 0
6 . 4 4 5
7 . 9 7 4
1 . 3 2 4 1 3 . 6 5 3 5 . 6 0 3
6 . 2 7 7 2 . 2 4 3
A l l S t o c k s , 1 9 6 7 t o 1 9 7 1
0 . 1 1 4 0 . 1 2 1
0 . 0 1 6
0 . 0 4 5
0 . 0 7 7
0 . 1 5 4
0 . 1 3 6 — 0 . 0 0 0
0 . 0 0 6
o s o s
0 . 9 9 5 1 . 0 1 3
0 . 9 7 6 0 . 9 5 5 1 . 0 1 6
1 . 1 1 8 0 . 8 8 2
0 . 9 3 0
1 . 0 8 0 0 . 5 7 4
0 . 8 4 3
1 . 6 0 7 0 . 5 4 5
0 . 8 1 0
1 . 9 2 5 0 . 4 6 5
0 . 4 3 1
2 . 5 0 9
0 . 3 8 0
2 . 9 2 8
1 0 . 1 2 9
1 . 9 0 8 1 . 7 1 2
5 . 8 1 5 1 . 5 8 5
2 . 4 7 6
A l l S t o c k s , 1 9 7 2 t o 1 9 7 6
M e a n
S . D .
S k e w
K u r t
0 . 0 0 0
0 . 0 1 4
1 . 0 0 0 0 . 5 7 5
0 , 4 6 6 — 0 . 2 8 1
1 7 . 2 2 8
2 . 1 9 4
M e a n — 0 . 0 0 0
0 . 0 2 5
S . D . 1 . 0 0 0
0 . 7 6 9
S k e w
1 . 0 9 2 0 . 2 3 0
K u r t
2 0 . 0 4 3
1 . 6 1 8
A l l S t o c k s , 1 9 7 7 t o 1 9 - 8 1
— 0 . 2 1 2 — 0 . 1 1 2
— 0 . 0 5 6 — 0 . 1 1 0
0 . 0 8 6
0 . 0 5 5
0 . 1 7 7
0 . 0 8 1 .
0 . 0 4 0
1 . 0 2 5 1 . 0 9 1
0 . 8 3 8
0 . 6 8 3
0 . 8 3 4
1 . 0 3 6 1 . 0 4 7
0 . 9 8 6 0 . 8 8 0
— 1 . 5 1 6 — 0 . 7 3 1 0 . 3 6 8
0 . 4 3 0 0 . 2 4 9
2 . 3 9 1
2 . 5 7 1
L 5 2 0
— 0 . 2 9 1
4 . 3 9 7
3 . 7 6 6
0 . 4 6 0
0 . 9 6 2
4 . 7 2 2 9 . 1 3 7
1 0 . 9 6 1 7 . 1 2 7 3 . 6 8 2
M e a n
S . D .
S k e w
K u r t
M e a n .
S . D .
S k e w
K u r t
M e a n
S . D .
S k e w
K u r t
0 . 0 0 0 — 0 . 1 4 7
1 . 0 0 0 1 . 0 7 3
1 . 2 6 7
— 1 . 4 0 0
2 1 . 7 8 9 4 . 8 9 9
0 . 0 0 0 0 . 0 1 2
1 . 0 0 0
0 . 9 0 7
0 . 1 0 4
— 0 . 3 2 6
1 2 . 6 8 8
3 . 9 2 2
0 . 0 0 0
— 0 . 1 1 9
1 . 0 0 0 0 . 9 2 6
— 0 . 0 3 6 0 . 0 7 9
5 . 3 7 7
2 . 8 1 8
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T a b l e V I I
K o l m o g o r o v - S m i r n o v t e s t o f t h e e q u a l i t y o f c o n d i t i o n a l a n d u n c o n d i t i o n a l 1 - d a y r e t u r n d i s t r i b u t i o n s
f o r N Y S E / A M E X s t o c k s f r o m 1 9 6 2 t o 1 9 9 6 , i n 5 - y e a r s u b p e r i o d s , a n d i n s i z e q u i n t i l e s . C o n d i t i o n a l
r e t u r n s a r e d e f i n e d a s t h e d a i l y r e t u r n t h r e e d a y s f o l l o w i n g t h e c o n c l u s i o n o f a n o c c u r r e n c e o f o n e o f
1 0 t e c h n i c a l i n d i c a t o r s : h e a d - a n d - s h o u l d e r s ( H S ) , i n v e r t e d h e a d - a n d - s h o u l d e r s ( 1 1 1 5 ) , b r o a d e n i n g
t o p ( B T O P ) , b r o a d e n i n g b o t t o m ( B B O T ) , t r i a n g l e t o p ( P T O P ) , t r i a n g l e b o t t o m ( T B O T ) , r e c t -
a n g l e t o p ( R T O P ) , r e c t a n g l e b o t t o m ( R B O T ) , d o u b l e t o p ( D T O P ) , a n d d o u b l e b o t t o m ( D B O T ) .
A l l r e t u r n s h a v e b e e n n o r m a l i z e d b y s u b t r a c t i o n o f t h e i r m e a n s a n d d i v i s i o n b y t h e i r s t a n d a r d
d e v i a t i o n s , p - v a l u e s a r e w i t h r e s p e c t t o t h e a s y m p t o t i c d i s t r i b u t i o n o f t h e K o l m o g o r o v - S m i r n o v
t e s t s t a t i s t i c . T h e s y m b o l s ' r ( x , j ' a n d ' - r ( 4 '
i n d i c a t e
t h a t t h e c o n d i t i o n a l d i s t r i b u t i o n i s a l s o
c o n d i t i o n e d o n d e c r e a s i n g a n d i n c r e a s i n g v o l u m e t r e n d , r e s p e c t i v e l y .
S t a t i s t i c
H S I l l S
B T O J >
B R O T f l O P T B O T a r o R B O T
D T O P D B O T
A l l S t o c k s , 1 9 6 2 t o 1 9 9 6
p - v a l u e
1 , 8 9
0 . 0 0 2
1 . 2 2
0 . 1 0 4
1 . 1 5
0 . 1 3 9
1 . 7 6 0 . 9 0
1 . 0 9
0 . 0 0 4
0 . 3 9 3 0 . 1 8 5
1 . 8 4
0 . 0 0 2
2 . 4 5
0 . 0 0 0
1 . 5 1
0 . 0 2 1
1 . 0 6
0 . 2 1 5
7 , - ( ' . . . )
p - v a l u e
1 . 4 9
0 . 0 2 4
0 . 9 5
0 . 3 2 7
0 . 4 4
0 . 9 8 9
0 . 6 2
0 . 7 3
1 . 3 3
0 . 8 3 9 0 . 6 5 7 0 . 0 5 9
1 . 3 7
0 . 0 4 7
1 . 7 7
0 . 0 0 4
0 . 9 6
0 . 3 1 9
0 . 7 8
0 . 5 7 9
r ( , )
p - v a l u e
0 . 7 2
0 . 6 7 1
1 . 0 5
0 . 2 2 0
1 . 3 3
0 . 0 5 9
1 . 5 9 0 . 9 2 1 . 2 9
0 . 0 1 3
0 . 3 6 8 0 . 0 7 3
1 . 1 3
0 . 1 5 6
1 . 2 4
0 . 0 9 0
0 . 7 4
0 . 6 3 8
0 . 8 4
0 . 4 8 1
D u f f .
p - v a l u e
0 . 8 8
0 . 4 1 8
0 . 5 4
0 . 9 3 5
0 . 5 9
0 . 8 7 9
0 . 9 4 0 7 5
1 . 3 7
0 . 3 4 2
0 . 6 2 8 0 . 0 4 6
0 . 7 9
0 . 5 5 7
1 . 2 0
0 . 1 1 1
0 . 8 2
0 . 5 1 2
0 . 7 1
0 . 6 9 8
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T a b l e V I I ( c o n t i n u e d )
S t a t i s t i c
H S
I H S E T O P B B O T f l O P T E O T R T O P R E O T D T O P D B O T
1 . 8 2 L 6 3 0 . 9 3
0 . 0 0 3 0 . 0 1 0
0 . 3 5 3
1 . 6 2
L 0 3
0 . 8 8
0 . 0 1 0
0 . 2 4 2 0 . 4 2 7
1 . 0 6 1 . 6 3
0 . 9 6
0 . 2 1 3 0 . 0 1 0 0 . 3 1 7
0 . 7 8 0 . 9 4 1 . 0 4
0 . 5 7 6 0 . 3 3 4
0 . 2 2 8
0 . 8 3
1 . 5 6 1 . 0 0
0 . 5 0 2 0 . 0 1 6 0 . 2 6 6
0 . 9 5
0 . 9 4
0 . 6 6
0 . 3 2 6 0 . 3 4 6 0 . 7 7 5
1 . 0 5 1 . 4 3 0 . 9 3
0 . 2 2 3
0 . 0 3 3 0 . 3 5 0
1 . 0 2 1 . 1 4 0 . 4 5
0 . 2 4 6
0 . 1 4 8 0 . 9 8 6
0 . 7 2 0 . 6 1 1 , 2 9
0 . 6 8 3 0 . 8 5 2
0 . 0 7 1
1 . 0 1 0 . 9 5 0 . 8 3
0 . 2 5 5
0 . 3 3 0 0 . 5 0 4
0 . 9 3
0 . 6 6 1 . 2 9
0 . 3 4 9
0 . 7 7 2 0 . 0 7 2
1 . 1 0 0 . 9 7 0 . 6 4
0 . 1 7 5 0 . 3 0 1 0 . 8 0 4
S m a l l e s t Q u i n t i l e , 1 9 6 2 t o 1 9 9 6
0 . 5 9
1 . 1 9
0 . 7 2
0 . 8 7 2 0 . 1 1 6
0 . 6 7 9
0 . 6 7 0 . 8 0 1 . 1 6
0 . 7 6 5 0 . 5 4 0
0 . 1 3 6
0 . 4 3
0 . 9 5 0 . 6 7
0 . 9 9 4 0 . 3 2 5
0 . 7 5 6
0 . 5 2 0 . 4 8
1 . 1 4
0 . 9 5 1 0 . 9 7 4
0 . 1 5 1
1 . 2 0
0 . 1 1 4
0 . 6 9
0 . 7 2 3
1 . 0 3
0 . 2 3 6
0 . 6 8
0 . 7 4 1
0 . 9 8
0 . 2 9 0
1 . 0 0
0 . 2 7 1
0 . 4 7
0 . 9 8 1
0 . 4 8
0 . 9 7 6
1 . 4 3
0 . 0 3 3
1 . 4 6
0 . 0 2 9
0 . 8 8
0 . 4 2 3
0 . 9 8
0 , 2 9 1
7
p - v a l u e
7
p - v a l u e
7
p - v a l u e
7 D u f f .
p - v a l u e
7
p - v a l u e
p - v a l u e
7 7 ( 4
p - v a l u e
7 D u f f .
p - v a l u e
7
p - v a l u e
7
p - v a l u e
7 7 ( 4
p - v a l u e
7 D u f f .
p - v a l u e
7
p - v a l u e
7
p - v a l u e
7 7 ( 4
p - v a l u e
7 D u f f .
p - v a l u e
7
p - v a l u e
7 7 ( N )
p - v a l u e
7 7 ( 1 ' )
p - v a l u e
7 D u f f .
p - v a l u e
1 . 0 9
0 . 1 8 8
1 . 3 1
0 . 0 6 5
0 , 5 1
0 . 9 5 9
0 . 9 8
0 . 2 9 4
0 . 8 8
0 . 4 1 7
0 . 7 1
0 . 7 0 3
1 . 1 9
0 . 1 1 9
0 . 9 9
0 . 2 7 6
1 . 9 6
0 . 0 0 1
1 . 4 5
0 . 0 3 1
0 . 9 3
0 . 3 5 4
0 . 6 6
0 . 7 7 4
1 . 3 7
0 . 0 4 8
1 . 3 4
0 . 0 5 6
0 . 6 4
0 . 8
1 0
0 . 6 4
0 . 8 0 6
2 n d Q u i n t i l e ,
1 9 6 2 t o 1 9 9 6
0 . 9 2 0 . 6 2
0 . 8 4
0 . 3 6 5
0 . 5 0 5 0 . 4 8 5
0 . 4 2 0 . 9 1
0 . 9 0
0 . 9 9 4 0 . 3 7 8 0 . 3 9 4
0 . 8 3
0 . 8 9 0 . 9 8
0 . 4 9 7 0 . 4 0 7 0 . 2 8 9
0 . 7 1 1 . 2 2 0 . 9 2
0 . 6 8 7
0 . 1 0 2
0 . 3 6 1
3 r d
Q u i n t i l e , 1 9 6 2 t o 1 9 9 6
1 . 2 8 0 . 5 7 1 . 0 3
0 . 0 7 4
0 . 9 0 3 0 . 2 4 3
0 . 7 6
0 . 6 1 0 . 8 2
0 . 6 1 3
0 . 8 5 4
0 . 5 2 0
1 . 1 4
0 . 6 3 0 . 8 0
0 . 1 4 7 0 . 8 2 6 0 . 5 4 4
0 . 4 8 0 . 5 0 0 . 8 9
0 . 9 7 4
0 . 9 6 4
0 . 4 1 3
4 t h Q u i n t i l e , 1 9 6 2 t o 1 9 9 6
0 . 8 4
0 . 6 1
0 . 8 4
0 . 4 7 9
0 . 8 5 5 0 . 4 8 0
0 . 9 6 0 . 7 8
0 . 8 4
0 . 3 1 1
0 . 5 8 5
0 . 4 8 7
0 . 9 6
1 . 1 6 0 . 6 9
0 . 3 1 6
0 . 1 3 7 0 . 7 3 1
1 . 1 6
1 . 3 1 0 . 7 8
0 . 1 3 8 0 . 0 6 5 0 . 5 7 1
L a r g e s t
Q u i n t i I e , 1 9 6 2 t o 1 9 9 6
1 . 1 9
0 . 1 2 0
0 . 9 4
0 . 3 3 9
0 . 9 3
0 . 3 5 6
0 . 7 9
0 . 5 5 2
1 . 2 9
0 . 0 7 3
0 . 8 6
0 . 4 4 3
1 . 1 5
0 . 1 4
1
0 . 7 9
0 . 5 6 4
1 . 5 0
0 . 0 2 3
1 . 6 1
0 . 0 1 2
0 . 7 8
0 . 5 7 8
0 . 9 1
0 . 3 8 3
1 . 3 7
0 . 0 4 7
0 . 7 2
0 . 6 8 0
1 . 1 6
0 . 1 3 6
0 . 9 2
0 . 3 6 3
1 . 7 6
0 . 0 0 4
0 . 8 7
0 . 4 4 2
0 . 8 7
0 . 4 3 2
1 . 1 1
0 . 8 4
0 . 4 8 5
1 . 1 2
0 . 1 6 5
0 . 9 4
0 . 3 4 2
1 . 1 6
0 . 1 3 3
1 . 4 6
0 . 0 2 9
1 , 5 0
0 . 0 2 2
0 . 9 6
0 . 3 1 7
1 . 1 8
0 . 1 2 6
1 . 5 5
0 . 0 1 6
1 . 1 7
0 . 1 3 1
0 . 5 9
0 . 8 7 8
0 . 7 2
0 . 6 7 0
0 . 7 2
0 . 6 8 2
0 . 6 2
0 . 8 4 1
0 . 6 9
0 . 7 2 0
0 . 6 6
0 . 7 8 0
0 . 9 0
0 . 3 9 5
0 . 6 4
0 . 8 0 2
0 . 4 6
0 . 9 8 2
0 . 5 4
0 . 7 8
0 . 5 8 3
0 . 7 3
0 . 6 6 3
0 . 5 8
0 . 8 9
2
0 . 6 2
0 . 8 4 0
0 . 8 4
0 . 4 7 8
0 . 9 7
0 . 2 9 8
0 . 9 9
0 . 2 8 6
0 . 6 8
0 . 7 4 5
1 . 1 4
0 . 1 5 0
1 , 0 1
0 . 2 5 8
0 . 8 6
0 . 4 5 0
1 . 1 5
0 . 1 4 3
0 . 5 3
0 . 9 4 3
1 . 0 1
0 . 2 5 8
0 . 8 5
0 . 4 6 8
1 . 1 0
0 . 1 7 6
1 . 2 8
0 . 0 7 7
1 . 2 0
0 . 1 1 4
0 . 8 8
0 . 4 1 8
0 . 7 9
1 . 2 5 1 . 1 6 0 . 9 8
0 . 0 8 8
0 . 1 3 6
0 , 2 8 7
1 . 1 2 0 . 9 0 0 . 5 7
0 . 1 6 4
0 . 3 8 6
0 . 9 0 6
0 . 8 1
0 . 9 3 0 . 8 3
0 . 5 2 2 0 . 3 5 0 0 . 4 9 5
0 . 7 1
0 . 5 4 0 . 5 9
0 . 6 9 9
0 . 9 3 4 0 . 8 7 4
0 . 4 8
0 . 9 7 7
0 . 7 8
0 . 5 8 0
0 . 6 1
0 . 8 5 4
0 . 6 4
0 . 5 0
0 . 9 6 4
0 . 6 4
0 . 8 0 6
0 . 6 9
0 . 7 2 9
0 . 7 6
0 . 8 0
0 . 9 4
0 . 5 4 4
0 . 3 4 6
1 . 1 7
0 . 9 1
0 . 1 2 7 0 . 3 7 9
0 . 8 1
0 . 7 3
0 . 5 3 2 0 . 6 6 1
1 . 2 1 0 . 8 5
0 . 8 0 0 0 . 6 0 7 0 . 1 1 0
0 . 4 6 7
0 . 1 7 0
0 . 9 2 9 0 . 5 5 2
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T a b l e V I I ( c o n t i n u e d )
S t a t i s t i c 1 1 5
I l l S
U T O P B B O T f l o p T B O T I t T O P R B C ) T D T O P D B O T
1 . 2 9 1 . 6 7 1 . 0 7
p - v a l u e
0 . 0 7 2
0 . 0 0 7
0 . 2 0 2
7 r ( ' . . )
0 . 8 3 1 . 0 1
1 . 0 4
p - v a l u e
0 . 4 9 9 0 . 2 6 0
0 . 2 3 2
7 r ( , )
1 . 1 3
1 . 1 3
0 . 8 4
p - v a l u e
0 . 1 5 6
0 . 1 5 3 0 . 4 8 0
7 D u f f .
0 . 6 5
0 . 7 1
0 . 7 5
p - v a l u e
0 . 7 9 9
0 . 6 9 1
0 . 6 2 9
1 , 1 0
0 . 9 6 0 . 6 0
p - v a l u e
0 . 1 7 7
0 . 3 1 7
0 . 8 6 7
7 i - ( ' , )
1 . 0 2
0 . 8 0
0 . 5 3
p - v a l u e
0 . 2 4 8
0 . 5 5 1
0 . 9 4 3
7 r ( i ' )
1 . 0 8
0 . 8 6 0 . 6 8
p - v a l u e 0 . 1 9 0
0 . 4 5 4
0 . 7 5 0
D u f f . 1 . 3 6
0 . 5 1 0 . 5 3
p - v a l u e
0 . 0 4 9
0 . 9 5 6
0 . 9 4 2
7
0 . 4 7 0 . 7 5
0 . 8 7
p - v a l u e
0 . 9 8 0
0 . 6 2 0
0 . 4 4 1
7 r ( ' )
0 . 8 0
0 . 4 0
0 . 5 0
p - v a l u e
0 . 5 3 9 0 . 9 9 8
0 . 9 6 6
7 r ( , )
0 . 4 9
0 . 7 8
0 . 9 4
p - v a l u e
0 . 9 7 0
0 . 5 7 7
0 . 3 4 0
' y D u f f .
0 . 5 5
0 . 5 6 0 . 5 1
p - v a l u e
0 . 9 2 5 0 . 9 1 5
0 . 9 6 0
7
1 . 1 6 0 . 7 3
0 . 7 6
p - v a l u e
0 . 1 3 8 0 . 6 6 5
0 . 6 1 7
7 T ( \ )
1 . 0 4
0 . 7 3
1 . 0 0
p - v a l u e
0 . 2 2 8 0 . 6 5 4
0 . 2 7 4
7 t ( , )
0 . 7 5
0 . 8 4
0 . 8 8
p - v a l u e
0 . 6 2 3
0 . 4 7 6 0 . 4 2 6
7 D u f f .
0 . 6 7
0 . 9 4
0 . 8 8
p - v a l u e
0 . 7 6 7
0 . 3 3 5
0 . 4 2 3
0 . 7 2
0 . 7 5
1 . 3 2
0 . 6 7 1
0 . 6 3 4
0 . 0 6 2
1 . 2 0
0 . 1 1 2
1 . 5 3
0 . 0 1 8
2 . 0 4
0 . 0 0 1
1 . 7 3
0 . 0 0 5
0 . 8 0 0 . 6 3
1 . 8 0
0 . 5 3 9
0 . 8 2 6
0 . 0 0 3
0 . 6 6
0 . 7 7 1
1 . 8 4
0 . 0 0 2
1 . 0 3
0 . 2 4 4
1 . 5 4
0 . 0 1 7
0 . 8 4
0 . 5 8 1 . 4 0
0 . 4 7 5 0 . 8 9 4
0 . 0 4 0
1 . 1 2
0 . 1 6 3
0 . 8 3
0 . 4 9 2
1 . 0 9
0 . 1 8 3
1 . 1 6
0 . 1 3 5
0 . 7 6
0 . 6 0 1 . 9 0
0 . 6 1 5
0 . 8 6 3
0 . 0 0 1
0 . 6 8
0 . 7 4 1
1 . 3 5
0 . 0 5 2
0 . 7 3
0 . 6 5 7
0 . 8 3
0 . 5 0 3
A l l S t o c k s , 1 9 6 7 t o 1 9 7 1
0 . 6 5
0 . 9 8 0 . 7 6
0 . 7 9 7
0 . 2 9 2
0 . 6 0 6
1 . 2 9
0 . 0 7 1
1 . 6 5
0 . 0 0 9
0 . 8 7
0 . 4 3 6
1 . 2 2
0 . 1 0 1
0 . 8 5
0 . 9 7
0 . 7 7
0 . 4 6 4
0 . 3 0 3 0 . 5 9 0
0 . 9 1
1 . 1 1
0 . 8 2
0 . 3 7 3 0 . 1 6 9 0 . 5 0 8
0 . 7 1
0 . 7 0 0
0 . 7 9
0 . 5 5 4
1 . 4 2
0 . 0 3 5
0 . 7 3
0 . 6 6 0
0 . 9 7
0 . 3 0 0
0 . 7 1
0 . 6 9 9
1 . 0 6
0 . 2 1 4
0 . 9 6
0 . 3 1 5
0 . 7 6
0 . 6 8 0 . 7 1
0 . 6 1 6
0 . 7 5 1 0 . 6 9 9
0 . 7 1
0 . 7 0 1
0 . 9 8
0 . 2 9 0
1 . 0 6
0 . 2 1 0
1 . 1 2
0 . 1 6 3
A l l S t o c k s , 1 9 7 2 t o 1 9 7 6
1 . 5 6 1 . 2 1
0 . 7 5
0 . 0 1 5
0 . 1 0 6 0 . 6 2 7
0 . 8 7
0 . 4 4 1
0 . 9 4
0 . 3 4 1
1 . 6 4
0 . 0 0 9
1 , 2 0
0 . 1 1 3
1 . 2 4
1 . 2 1
0 . 6 5
0 . 0 9 3 0 . 1 0 6
0 . 7 9 4
1 . 2 6
0 . 0 8 4
0 . 6 3
0 . 8 2 1
0 . 7 0
0 . 7 1 8
1 . 3 9
0 . 0 4 1
1 . 2 1
1 . 1 2
1 . 0 3
0 . 1 0 8
0 . 1 5 9 0 . 2 4 4
0 . 8 1
0 . 5 2 1
0 . 9 5
0 . 3 3 1
0 . 8 4
0 . 4 8 5
0 . 7 0
0 . 7 t 9
0 . 9 5
0 . 8 1
1 . 1 1
0 . 3 3 3 0 . 5 2 5
0 . 1 7 0
1 . 1 5
0 . 1 4 1
0 . 6 2
0 . 8 3 6
0 . 6 7
0 . 7 6 7
1 . 3 1
0 . 0 6 5
A l l S t o c k s , 1 9 7 7 t o 1 9 8 1
1 . 1 6 0 . 8 2
1 . 1 4
0 . 1 3 6
0 . 5 0 6
0 . 1 4 7
1 . 0 1
0 . 2 6 3
0 . 8 7
0 . 4 2 8
0 . 8 6
0 . 4 4 9
1 . 7 9
0 . 0 0 3
1 . 3 1 1 . 1 0
1 . 3 2
0 . 0 6 5
0 . 1 7 6 0 . 0 6 2
0 . 8 3
0 . 4 9 4
0 . 8 0
0 . 5 5 0
1 . 2 0
0 . 1 1 3
1 . 8 1
0 . 0 0 3
0 . 6 5
0 . 6 7
0 . 7 6
0 . 7 9 9
0 . 7 5 4 0 . 6 0 2
1 . 5 1
0 . 0 2 0 .
1 . 4 1
0 . 0 3 7
0 . 8 6
0 . 4 5 0
0 . 9 9
0 . 2 8 0
0 . 7 0
0 . 6 5
0 . 7 0
0 . 7 0 8 0 . 7 8 5
0 . 7 1 6
1 . 1 1
0 . 1 7 2
1 . 2 9
0 . 0 7 3
1 . 1 6
0 . 1 3 7
0 . 7 0
0 . 7 1 3
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T a b l e V I I ( c o n t i n u e d )
S t a t i s t i c
H S
I R S .
B T O P B B O T f l o p T R O T R T O P R H O T D T O P D B O T
A U S t o c k s , 1 9 8 2 t o 1 9 8 6
1 . 5 7 0 . 9 9 0 . 5 9 1 . 4 6 1 . 4 7 1 . 0 4
0 . 8 7 0 . 6 8
0 . 7 6
0 . 9 0
p - v a l u e
0 . 0 1 5 0 . 2 7 6
0 . 8 8 3 0 . 0 2 9 0 . 0 2 7 0 . 2 3 2 0 . 4 3 1
0 . 7 4 2
0 . 6 1 7
0 . 3 8 7
' 7 r ( " . )
1 . 1 7 0 . 6 8 0 . 4 4
1 . 3 0 .
1 . 5 3 1 . 2 1 1 . 0 8 0 . 9 3
0 . 8 4 0 . 8 8
p - v a l u e
0 . 1 2 9 0 . 7 4 1 0 . 9 9 1
0 . 0 7 0 0 . 0 1 8
0 . 1 0 6
0 . 1 9 0
0 . 3 5 6
0 . 4 7 8 0 . 4 2 1
' y i - ( , )
0 . 8 1 1 . 0 3
0 . 7 4 0 . 6 2 0 . 8 3 1 . 2 3 0 . 7 7 0 . 7 9 0 . 6 3 0 . 8 1
p - v a l u e
0 . 5 3 3
0 . 2 4 3
0 . 6 4 0 0 . 8 3 1 0 . 4 9 9 0 . 0 9 7
0 . 5 9 7 0 . 5 6 4
0 . 8 2 1
0 . 5 2 8
D u f f .
0 . 5 1 0 . 7 9
0 . 7 0 0 . 8 1
0 . 7 4 1 . 2 1
0 . 7 3
0 . 7 5
0 . 9 3
0 . 7 4
p - v a l u e
0 . 9 6 1 0 . 5 6 7 0 . 7 1 7 0 . 5 3 2 0 . 6 4 3 0 . 1 0 7
0 . 6 5 7 0 . 6 2 3
0 . 3 5 2
0 . 6 4 2
A l l
S t o c k s ,
1 9 8 7 t o 1 9 9 1
1 . 3 6
1 . 5 3
1 . 0 5
0 . 6 7 0 . 7 5 0 . 8 6 0 . 6 0 1 . 0 9 1 . 2 0
0 . 6 7
p - v a l u e
0 . 0 4 8
0 . 0 1 9 0 . 2 1 9 0 . 7 5 6 0 . 6 2 7 0 . 4 5 6
0 . 8 6 2
0 . 1 8 5
0 . 1 1 1
0 . 7 6 4
, - ( ' - . , )
0 . 5 2 1 . 1 6
1 . 2 5
0 . 7 2 1 . 0 3 0 . 8 1 0 . 8 1 0 . 6 1 1 . 0 7 0 . 6 8
p - v a l u e
0 . 9 5 3 0 . 1 3 5 0 . 0 8 7 0 . 6 7 3 0 . 2 3 5 0 . 5 2 2
0 . 5 2 7
0 . 8 4 8
0 . 2 0 1 0 . 7 5 1
' 7 T ( / )
1 - 7 2 1 . 0 3 0 . 6 4 1 3 7 0 . 7 4 1 . 1 0 1 . 0 4 1 . 2 0
1 . 0 2 1 . 3 2
p - v a l u e 0 . 0 0 6 0 . 2 4 1
0 . 8 1 3 0 . 0 4 6 0 . 6 3 9 0 . 1 8 1
0 . 2 3 2
0 . 1 1 1
. 0 . 2 5 0
0 . 0 6 2
D u f f .
1 . 1 1 1 . 2 9
1 . 0 7
1 . 0 6 0 . 6 7
0 . 9 3
0 . 8 9
0 . 7 4 0 . 8 4 1 . 1 7
p - v a l u e
0 . 1 6 8 0 . 0 7 2
0 . 2 0 1
0 . 2 1 5
0 . 7 5 3 0 . 3 5 7
0 . 4 0 3
0 . 6 3 8
0 . 4 8 3 0 . 1 2 9
A l l
S t o c k s ,
1 9 9 2 t o 1 9 9 6
1 . 5 0 1 . 3 1 1 . 0 5 1 . 8 9 1 . 2 7 0 . 9 4 1 . 2 3 0 . 6 6
1 . 7 2 1 . 5 4
p - v a l u e
0 . 0 2 2 0 . 0 6 6
0 . 2 2 2 0 . 0 0 2 0 . 0 7 8 0 . 3 4 3
0 . 0 9 5
0 . 7 8 2
0 . 0 0 5 0 . 0 1 8
7 r ( ' , )
0 . 8 7 1 . 0 5
0 . 6 0
0 . 8 9
1 . 1 1
1 . 0 3 0 . 9 0 0 . 6 5
0 . 9 9 1 . 1 2
p - v a l u e
0 . 4 4 3
0 . 2 1 8
0 . 8 5 8 0 . 4 0 4
0 . 1 7 4
0 . 2 4 2
0 . 3 9 0 0 . 7 8 7
0 . 2 . 8 3
0 . 1 6 5
7 r ( t )
0 . 7 2 0 . 6 6 0 . 7 5 1 . 4 2
1 . 0 2
0 . 5 8 0 . 6 1 0 . 6 4
1 . 3 6 0 . 9 3
p - v a l u e
0 . 6 7 0 0 . 7 7 8
0 . 6 2 4
0 . 0 3 6
0 . 2 4 6
0 . 8 9 5
0 . 8 5 4 0 . 8 1 3
0 . 0 4 8
0 . 3 5 7
7 D u f f .
0 . 5 8 0 . 8 8 0 . 5 0 0 . 4 9 0 . 4 3 0 . 8 1 0 . 6 0 0 . 4 6
0 . 9 6 0 . 9 9
p - v a l u e
0 . 8 8 7
0 . 4 2 2
0 . 9 6 6 0 . 9 7 1
0 . 9 9 3
0 . 5 2 8
0 . 8 5 8 0 . 9 8 4
0 . 3 1 4
0 . 2 8 2
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T a b L e V I I I
K o l m o g o r o v - S m i r n o v t e s t o f t h e e q u a l i t y o f c o n d i t i o n a l a n d u n c o n d i t i o n a l 1 - d a y r e t u r n d i s t r i b u -
t i o n s f o r N A S D A Q s t o c k s f r o m 1 9 6 2 t o 1 9 9 6 , i n 5 - y e a r s u b p e r i o d s , a n d i n s i z e q u i n t i l e s . C o n d i t i o n a l
r e t u r n s a r e d e f i n e d a s t h e d a i l y r e t u r n t h r e e d a y s f o l l o w i n g t h e c o n c l u s i o n o f a n o c c u r r e n c e o f o n e o f
1 0 t e c h n i c a l i n d i c a t o r s : h e a d - a n d - s h o u l d e r s ( H S ) , i n v e r t e d h e a d - a n d - s h o u l d e r s ( I H S ) , b r o a d e n i n g
t o p ( B T O P ) , b r o a d e n i n g b o t t o m ( B B O T ) , t r i a n g l e t o p ( T T O P ) , t r i a n g l e b o t t o m ( T B O T ) , r e c t -
a n g l e t o p ( R T O P ) , r e c t a n g l e b o t t o m ( R B O T ) , d o u b l e t o p ( D T O P ) , a n d d o u b l e b o t t o m ( D B O T ) .
A l l r e t u r n s h a v e b e e n n o r m a l i z e d b y s u b t r a c t i o n o f t h e i r m e a n s a n d d i v i s i o n b y t h e i r s t a n d a r d
d e v i a t i o n s , p - v a l u e s a r e w i t h r e s p e c t t o t h e a s y m p t o t i c d i s t r i b u t i o n o f t h e K o l m o g o r o v - S m i r n o v
t e s t s t a t i s t i c . T h e s y m b o l s ' r ( N ) ' a n d ' r ( 4 ' i n d i c a t e
t h a t t h e c o n d i t i o n a l d i s t r i b u t i o n i s a l s o
c o n d i t i o n e d o n d e c r e a s i n g a n d i n c r e a s i n g v o l u m e t r e n d , r e s p e c t i v e l y .
S t a t i s t i c
H S
I R S
D T O P
B B O T f l o p T E O T
R T O P
R E O T
D T O P
D E O T
• •
A l l S t o c k s , 1 9 6 2 t o
1 9 9 6
p - v a t u e
2 . 3 1
0 . 0 0 0
2 . 6 8
0 . 0 0 0
1 . 6 0
0 . 0 1 2
1 8 4
2 . 8 1 2 . 3 4
0 . 0 0 2
0 . 0 0 0 0 . 0 0 0
2 . 6 9
0 . 0 0 0
1 . 9 0
0 . 0 0 1
2 . 2 9
0 . 0 0 0
2 . 0 6
0 . 0 0 0
' y r ( s , )
p - v a l u e
1 . 8 6
0 . 0 0 2
1 . 5 3
0 . 0 1 9
1 . 3 5
0 . 0 5 2
0 . 9 9
1 . 9 7 1 . 9 5
0 . 2 8 1
0 . 0 0 1
0 . 0 0 1
2 . 1 6
0 . 0 0 0
1 . 7 3
0 . 0 0 5
1 . 3 8
0 . 0 4 5
1 . 9 4
0 . 0 0 1
' y r ( i . )
p - v a l u e
1 . 5 9
0 . 0 1 3
2 . 1 0
0 . 0 0 0
1 . 8 2
0 . 0 0 3
1 . 5 9
1 . 8 9 1 . 1 8
0 . 0 1 3
0 . 0 0 2
0 . 1 2 6
1 . 5 7
0 . 0 1 4
1 . 2 2
0 . 1 0 2
2 . 1 5
0 . 0 0 0
1 . 4 6
0 . 0 2 8
' D u f f .
p - v a l u e
1 . 0 8
0 . 1 9 5
0 . 8 6
0 . 4 5 0
1 . 1 0
0 . 1 7 5
0 . 8 0
1 . 7 3 0 . 7 4
0 . 5 4 2 0 . 0 0 5
0 . 6 3 7
0 . 9 1
0 . 3 7 9
0 . 7 5
0 . 6 2 1
0 . 7 6
0 . 6 1 9
1 . 5 2
0 . 0 2 0
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T a b l e V I I I ( c o n t i n u e d )
S t a t i s t i c
I I S
I l l S
B T O P B B O T f l o p T E O T R T O P R . B O T D T O P D B O T
S m a l l e s t Q u i n t i l e , 1 9 6 2 t o 1 9 9 6
7
p - v a l u e
7 7 ( N )
p - v a l u e
7 r ( , ' )
p - v a l u e
7 D u f f .
p - v a l u e
7
p - v a l u e
7 7 ( N )
p - v a l u e
7 r ( , )
p - v a l u e
7 D u f f .
p - v a l u e
7
p - v a l u e
7
p - v a l u e
7 r ( , )
p - v a l u e
7 D u f f .
p - v a l u e
1 . 5 1 2 . 1 6
1 . 7 2
0 . 0 2 1 0 . 0 0 0 0 . 0 0 6
1 . 1 6 1 . 3 0
0 . 8 5
0 . 1 3 9 0 . 0 7 0
0 . 4 6 3
0 . 8 5
1 . 7 3
1 . 6 1
0 . 4 6 2
0 . 0 0 5 0 . 0 1 2
1 . 0 4 0 . 9 5 0 . 8 3
0 . 2 2 7
0 . 3 3 4
0 . 4 9 3
1 . 5 5 1 . 4 6
0 . 9 4
0 . 0 1 6
0 . 0 2 9 0 . 3 4 1
1 . 1 1 1 . 1 3 1 . 0 8
0 . 1 7 3 0 . 1 5 7
0 . 1 9 2
1 . 3 7 0 . 8 7
0 . 7 3
0 . 0 4 8 0 . 4 3 9
0 . 6 6 5
1 . 2 3 0 . 6 2 0 . 9 7
0 . 0 9 5
0 . 5 3 5
0 . 3 0 9
1 . 2 5 1 . 7 2 0 . 8 2
0 . 0 8 7 0 . 0 0 5 0 . 5 1 0
0 . 9 3 1 . 0 8 0 . 5 4
0 . 3 4 8 0 . 1 9 4
0 . 9 3 0
0 . 5 9 1 . 1 4 0 . 9 7
0 . 8 7 3
0 . 1 4 6
0 . 3 0 9
0 . 6 1
0 . 8 9
0 . 5 8
0 . 8 5 2
0 . 4 0 5 0 . 8 9 0
1 . 0 4 0 . 8 2 1 . 2 0
0 . 2 3 3
0 . 5 1 0 0 . 1 1 1
0 . 8 1 0 . 5 4 0 . 5 7
0 . 5 2 8
0 . 9 3 5
0 . 8 9 7
0 . 9 7 1 . 0 4 1 . 2 9
0 . 3 0 6
0 . 2 2 9
0 . 0 7 1
1 . 1 7 0 . 8 9
0 . 9 8
0 . 1 2 8
0 . 4 0 0 0 . 2 9 2
1 . 6 8 1 . 2 2
1 . 5 5 2 , 1 3
0 . 0 0 7
0 . 1 0 1
0 . 0 1 6 0 . 0 0 0
1 . 1 4
1 . 2 5 1 . 6 2 1 . 4 3
0 . 1 5 0
0 . 0 8 9 0 . 0 1 0 0 . 0 3 3
2 . 0 0
1 . 3 4 0 . 7 9 1 . 5 8
0 . 0 0 1
0 . 0 5 5 0 . 5 5 3
0 . 0 1 4
1 . 4 4
1 . 3 9 0 . 7 2
0 . 9 5
0 . 0 3 1
0 . 0 4 2 0 . 5 7 4
0 . 3 2 6
2 n d Q u i n t i l e , 1 9 6 2 t o 1 9 9 6
1 . 4 4 1 . 2 4
1 . 0 8 1 . 2 0
0 . 0 3 1 0 . 0 9 5
0 . 1 9 2
0 . 1 1 3
0 . 9 2 1 . 2 3
0 . 7 9 1 . 3 4
0 . 3 7 1
0 . 0 9 7 0 . 5 5 7
0 . 0 5 5
0 . 9 7 1 . 3 8
1 . 2 9 1 . 1 2
0 . 3 0 9 0 . 0 4 4 0 . 0 7 3
0 . 1 6 2
0 . 6 9
1 . 0 2 1 . 0 5
1 . 0 9
0 . 7 3 3
0 . 2 4 8 0 . 2 2 4
0 . 1 8 3
3 r d Q u i n t i l e , 1 9 6 2 t o 1 9 9 6
1 . 7 1 1 . 4 1
L 5 2 1 . 2 5
0 . 0 0 6
0 . 0 3 8
0 . 0 2 0
0 . 0 8 9
1 . 2 3
1 . 0 6 1 . 0 2 0 . 7 9
0 . 0 9 7
0 . 2 1 3
0 . 2 4 5
0 . 5 6 0
1 . 3 7
0 . 7 5 1 . 0 1 1 . 1 3
0 . 0 4 7
0 . 6 3 3 0 . 2 6 2 0 . 1 5 9
0 . 4 6
0 . 6 1 0 . 8 9 0 . 5 2
0 . 9 8 4
0 . 8 4 4 0 . 4 0 4
0 . 9 4 7
4 t h Q u i n t i l e , 1 9 6 2 t o 1 9 9 6
0 . 9 8 1 . 3 0
1 . 2 5
1 . 8 8
0 . 2 9 8 0 . 0 6 7
0 . 0 8 7
0 . 0 0 2
1 . 0 5 0 . 9 2
1 . 0 6 1 . 2 3
0 . 2 1 7
0 . 3 6 7 0 . 2 1 5
0 . 0 9 7
0 . 5 3 2 . 2 5
0 . 7 1 1 . 0 5
0 . 9 3 8
0 . 0 0 0 0 . 6 9 6 0 . 2 1 9
0 . 9 7
1 . 8 6 0 . 6 2 0 . 9 3
0 . 3 0 1
0 . 0 0 2 0 . 8 4 3 0 . 3 5 2
0 . 7 7
1 . 2 0 0 . 9 7
0 . 5 8 9
0 . 1 1 4
0 . 3 0 9
0 . 7 3
1 . 3 1 0 . 9 2
0 . 6 5 3
0 . 0 6 5
0 . 3 7 1
L a r g e s t Q u i n t i l e , 1 9 6 2 t o 1 9 9 6
1 . 0 8
1 . 0 1 1 . 0 3
0 . 1 9 0
0 . 2 5 5 0 . 2 4 2
1 . 0 3 0 . 5 4 0 . 9 3
0 . 2 3 7
0 . 9 3 1
0 . 3 5 6
1 . 1 8 1 . 3 9
0 . 5 0
0 . 1 2 3
0 . 0 4 1 0 . 9 6 7
0 . 9 4 1 . 2 5
0 . 7 3
0 . 3 4 2 0 . 0 9 0
0 . 6 6 8
0 . 6 6
0 . 9 2
0 . 6 8
0 . 8 5
0 . 7 7 8
0 . 3 6 0 0 . 7 4 2
0 . 4 6 2
0 . 4 7 0 . 7 7
0 . 7 6 0 . 8 5
0 . 9 8 1
0 . 5 8 7
0 . 6 1 2
0 . 4 6 8
0 . 9 3
0 . 8 8 1 . 2 5 0 . 7 7
0 . 3 5 8 0 . 4 1 5 0 . 0 8 9
0 . 5 9 7
0 . 8 4
0 . 7 6 1 . 1 1
0 . 7 3
0 . 4 7 6
0 . 6 1 7 0 . 1 6 9 0 . 6 6 2
1 . 7 4
0 . 0 0 5
1 . 0 8
0 . 1 9 1
1 . 4 7
0 . 0 2 6
0 . 9 4
0 . 3 3 8
1 . 9 0
0 . 0 0 1
1 . 0 9
0 . 1 8 5
1 . 1 2
0 . 1 6 5
0 . 5 8
0 . 8 9 4
1 . 8 6
0 . 0 0 2
1 . 3 8
0 . 0 4 4
1 . 3 7
0 . 0 4 7
0 . 6 0
0 . 8 6 4
1 . 9 8
0 . 0 0 1
1 . 9 5
0 . 0 0 1
1 . 2 0
0 . 1 1 5
1 . 0 9
0 . 1 8 4
1 . 2 7
0 . 0 7 8
1 . 6 1
0 . 0 1 1
0 . 9 4
0 . 3 4 3
0 . 5 1
0 . 9 5 5
1 . 8 2
0 . 0 0 3
0 . 8 8
0 , 4 2 3
1 . 7 8
0 . 0 0 3
1 . 0 9
0 . 1 8 8
1 . 7 0
0 . 0 0 6
1 . 0 5
0 . 2 1 6
1 . 5 2
0 . 0 1 9
0 . 7 3
0 . 6 5 4
1 . 1 0
0 . 1 7 5
1 . 1 9
0 . 1 1 7
0 . 9 1
0 , 3 8 1
0 . 7 8
0 . 5 7 9
1 . 8 4
0 . 0 0 2
1 . 4 7
0 . 0 2 6
1 . 3 4
0 . 0 5 4
0 . 3 8
0 . 9 9 9
0 . 7 9
0 . 5 5 3
0 . 7 2
0 . 6 7 2
7
p - v a l u e
7 7 ( N )
p - v a L u e
7 r ( , )
p - v a l u e
7 f l i t
p - v a l u e
0 . 9 4 0 . 6 6
0 . 3 4 1
0 . 7 7 9
1 . 5 3 0 . 8 7
0 . 0 1 9
0 . 4 3 1
7
p - v a l u e
7
p - v a l u e
7
p - v a l u e
7 D u f f .
p - v a l u e
0 . 1 3 7
0 . 1 5 0
0 . 7 5 6
0 . 6 2
0 . 8 4 0
0 . 8 5
0 . 4 6 5
1 . 1 4
0 . 1 4 9
1 . 1 3
0 . 1 5 6
0 . 9 8
0 . 2 9 2
1 . 1 2
0 . 1 6 0
0 . 8 6
0 . 4 5 7
0 . 8 6
0 . 4 5 4
0 . 7 7
0 5 9 8
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T a b l e V I I I ( c o n t i n u e d )
S t a t i s t i c
H S I H S
B T O P B B O T f l O P T E O T R T O P R B O T D T O P D B O T
A l l S t o c k s , 1 9 6 2 t o 1 9 6 6
1 . 0 1
0 . 8 4 1 . 0 8 0 . 8 2
0 . 7 1
0 . 7 0 1 . 5 9
0 . 8 9
1 . 1 2
1 . 1 0
p - v a l u e
0 . 2 6 1
0 . 4 8 1 0 . 1 9 3 0 . 5 0 8 0 . 6 9 7
0 . 7 1 8
0 . 0 1 3 0 . 4 1 1
0 . 1 6 6 0 . 1 1 5
7 T ( \ . )
0 . 9 5
0 . 6 5
0 . 4 1 1 . 0 5 0 . 5 1 1 . 1 3 0 . 7 9 0 . 9 3 0 . 9 3
1 . 2 1
p - v a l u e
0 . 3 2 2
0 . 7 9 8
0 . 9 9 7
0 . 2 2 4 0 . 9 5 6
0 . 1 5 5
0 . 5 5 6
0 . 3 5 0
0 . 3 5 0
0 . 1 0 8
7 T ( / ' )
0 . 7 7 0 . 9 6
0 . 8 3 0 , 7 3 1 . 3 5 0 . 4 9
1 . 1 7 0 . 6 2
1 . 1 8 1 . 1 5
p - v a l u e
0 . 5 8 6
0 . 3 1 4
0 . 4 8 9
0 . 6 6 3 0 . 0 5 2
0 . 9 7 2 0 . 1 3 0 0 . 8 4 3 0 . 1 2 1 0 . 1 4 0
7 D u f f .
1 . 1 0 0 . 6 7 0 . 3 2 0 . 6 9 1 . 2 9 0 . 5 8
0 . 8 0 0 . 7 5 0 . 9 8 1 . 0 6
p - v a l u e
0 . 1 7 4
0 . 7 6 1
1 . 0 0 0
0 . 7 3 5 0 . 0 7 1
0 . 8 9 2
0 . 5 5 1
0 . 6 2 0
0 . 2 9 8
0 . 2 0 8
A l l S t o c k s , 1 9 6 7 t o 1 9 7 1
0 . 7 5
1 . 1 0 1 . 0 0 0 . 7 4 1 . 2 7 1 . 3 5
1 . 1 6
0 . 7 4 0 . 7 4 1 . 2 1
p - v a l u e
0 . 6 3 6
0 . 1 7 5
0 . 2 7 3 0 4 3 7
0 . 0 7 9
0 . 0 5 2 0 . 1 3 6
0 . 6 4 2
0 . 6 3 8
0 . 1 0 7
7 r ( " . . )
1 . 0 3 0 . 5 2 0 . 7 0 0 . 8 7
1 . 2 4 1 . 3 3 1 . 2 9 0 . 8 3 0 . 7 2 1 . 4 5
p - v a l u e
0 . 2 4 1 0 . 9 4 7
0 . 7 1 4 0 . 4 3 8
0 . 0 9 2 0 . 0 5 8
0 . 0 7 2
0 . 4 9 0
0 . 6 8 4 0 . 0 3 1
7 r ( , s )
1 . 0 5 1 . 0 8
1 . 1 2 0 . 6 4 0 . 7 9 0 . 6 5 0 . 5 5 0 . 5 3 0 . 7 5 0 . 6 9
p - v a l u e 0 . 2 1 7
0 . 1 9 2 0 . 1 6 5
0 . 8 1 0
0 . 5 6 6
0 . 7 9 7
0 . 9 2 3
0 . 9 4 1
0 . 6 3 1 0 . 7 2 3
D u f f .
1 . 2 4 0 . 8 9 0 . 6 6 0 . 7 8 1 . 0 7 0 . 8 8 0 . 8 8
0 . 4 0 0 . 9 1 0 . 7 6
p - v a l u e
0 . 0 9 3
0 . 4 1 3
0 . 7 7 0
0 . 5 8 5 0 . 2 0 3 0 . 4 1 8
0 . 4 2 3
0 . 9 9 7
0 . 3 8 5 0 . 6 0 2
A l l S t o c k s , 1 9 7 2 t o 1 9 7 6
0 . 8 2 1 . 2 8 1 . 8 4 1 . 1 3 1 . 4 5
1 . 5 3 1 . 3 1 0 . 9 6 0 . 8 5 1 . 7 6
p - v a l u e
0 . 5 0 9
0 . 0 7 7
0 . 0 0 2
0 . 1 5 6
0 . 0 2 9 0 . 0 1 9 0 . 0 6 4
0 . 3 1 4 0 . 4 6 4 0 . 0 0 4
7 r ( ' . )
0 . 5 9
0 . 7 3 — 9 9 . 0 0
0 . 9 1 1 . 3 9
0 . 7 3
1 . 3 7 0 . 9 8
1 . 2 2
0 . 9 4
p - v a l u e
0 . 8 7 5
0 . 6 6 9
0 . 0 0 0 0 . 3 7 6
0 . 0 4 2 0 . 6 5 4
0 . 0 4 6 0 . 2 9 2 0 . 1 0 0 0 . 3 4 4
7 r ( , ' )
0 . 6 5
0 . 7 3 — 9 9 . 0 0
— 9 9 . 0 0 — 9 9 . 0 0 — 9 9 . 0 0 0 . 5 9 0 . 7 6 0 . 7 8 0 . 6 5
p - v a l u e
0 . 8 0 0 0 . 6 5 3
0 . 0 0 0 0 . 0 0 0
0 . 0 0 0
0 . 0 0 0 0 . 8 7 8 0 . 6 1 1 0 . 5 7 3 0 . 7 9 8
7 D u f f .
0 . 4 8 0 . 5 7 — 9 9 . 0 0 — 9 9 . 0 0 — 9 9 . 0 0 — 9 9 . 0 0
0 . 6 3 0 . 5 5 0 . 9 2 0 . 3 7
p - v a l u e
0 . 9 7 4
0 . 9 0 2
0 . 0 0 0
0 . 0 0 0
0 . 0 0 0
0 . 0 0 0 0 . 8 2 8
0 . 9 2 5
0 . 3 6 2 0 . 9 9 9
A l l S t o c k s , 1 9 7 7 t o 1 9 8 1
•
1 . 3 5 1 . 4 0 1 . 0 3
1 . 0 2
1 . 5 5
2 . 0 7
0 . 7 4 0 . 6 2
0 . 9 2
1 . 2 8
p - v a l u e
0 . 0 5 3
0 . 0 3 9 0 . 2 3 t
0 . 2 4 9
0 . 0 1 6
0 . 0 0 0 0 . 6 3 6
0 . 8 4 2
0 . 3 6 9
0 . 0 7 7
' y , j )
1 . 1 9
1 . 4 7 — 9 9 . 0 0
— 9 9 . 0 0
0 . 9 6 0 . 9 8 0 . 8 6 0 . 7 9 0 . 8 1 0 . 6 8
p - v a l u e
0 . 1 1 7
0 . 0 2 7 0 . 0 0 0 0 . 0 0 0
0 . 3 1 7 0 . 2 9 0 0 . 4 5 3 0 . 5 5 4 0 . 5 2 2 0 . 7 4 8
, - ( i ' )
0 . 6 9 0 . 9 4 0 . 8 0 — 9 9 . 0 0 1 . 4 6 — 9 9 . 0 0 0 . 5 6 0 . 8 2
1 . 0 6
0 9 4
p - v a l u e
0 . 7 2 8
0 . 3 4 1 0 . 5 4 2
0 . 0 0 0
0 . 0 2 8
0 . 0 0 0 0 . 9 1 8 0 . 5 1 4
0 . 2 0 7
0 . 3 3 6
D i f f .
0 . 7 3
0 . 9 0 — 9 9 . 0 0 — 9 9 0 0
0 . 3 5 — 9 9 . 0 0 0 . 4 4 0 . 3 7 0 . 8 0 0 . 5 3
p - v a l u e
0 . 6 6 5 0 . 3 9 5
0 . 0 0 0 0 . 0 0 0
1 . 0 0 0
0 . 0 0 0 0 . 9 9 1 0 . 9 9 9
0 . 5 4 1
0 . 9 4 4
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T a b l e V I I I ( c o n t i n u e d )
S t a t i s t i c U S
I l l S
B T O P B B O T f l o p T B O T R T O P R B O T D T O P D B O T
A l l S t o c k s , 1 9 8 2 t o 1 9 8 6
1 6 6
1 . 5 9 1 . 1 7 0 . 7 3
1 . 4 6 1 . 6 9 1 . 0 4
1 . 2 4 2 . 4 4
1 . 2 7
p - v a l u e
0 . 0 0 8 0 . 0 1 3
0 . 1 2 9
0 . 6 5 4
0 . 0 2 8 0 . 0 0 6
0 . 2 3 2
0 . 0 9 3
0 . 0 0 0
0 . 0 7 8
7 , - ( )
1 . 6 5
1 . 1 0
0 . 4 6
0 . 7 4 0 . 9 5
1 . 4 7
0 . 8 3 1 . 1 8
1 . 2 0 0 . 5 9
p - v a l u e
0 . 0 0 9
0 . 1 7 6 0 . 9 8 4
0 . 6 4 1 0 . 3 3 0
0 . 0 2 7
0 . 5 0 3
0 . 1 2 1 0 . 1 1 2
0 . 8 7 3
7 T ( / )
1 . 1 3
1 . 3 1
0 . 8 6 0 . 4 2 1 . 1 7
1 . 0 4
0 . 9 7 1 . 1 3
1 . 6 8 0 . 8 9
p - v a l u e
0 . 1 5 3 0 . 0 6 5
0 . 4 4 5
0 . 9 9 5 0 . 1 2 9
0 . 2 3 1
0 . 3 0 2
0 . 1 5 5 0 . 0 0 7
0 . 4 0 5
7 D u f f .
0 . 6 7
0 . 3 9
0 . 5 1 0 . 4 2
0 . 8 5 0 . 4 3
0 . 4 1 0 . 6 7 0 . 6 6
0 . 7 5
p - v a l u e
0 . 7 5 5
0 . 9 9 8
0 . 9 5 7 0 . 9 9 4
0 . 4 6 2
0 . 9 9 3
0 . 9 9 6 0 . 7 6 6
0 . 7 8 2
0 . 6 2 7
A U S t o c k s , 1 9 8 7 t o 1 9 9 1
- y
1 . 2 4
1 . 2 9 0 . 9 1
0 . 8 8
1 . 2 8 1 . 4 1
2 . 0 1 1 . 4 9
1 . 5 5 1 . 5 3
p - v a l u e
0 . 0 9 1
0 . 0 7 0
0 . 3 8 4 0 . 4 2 1
0 . 0 7 4
0 . 0 3 9
0 . 0 0 1
0 . 0 2 4 0 . 0 1 7
0 . 0 1 9
7 r ( ' , . )
1 . 0 5
1 . 0 0 1 . 0 0
0 . 7 8 1 . 6 8
0 . 9 2
1 . 6 7 1 . 2 5 0 . 6 1
0 . 8 6
p - v a l u e
0 . 2 2 1
0 . 2 6 6 0 . 2 7 4
0 . 5 8 0
0 . 0 0 7
0 . 3 6 9 0 . 0 0 8 0 . 0 8 7 0 . 8 4 9
0 . 4 4 8
7 T ( / )
1 . 2 3
1 . 2 6 1 . 0 6
1 . 3 2 0 . 6 5
1 . 2 7 1 . 1 0
1 . 2 6
1 . 6 7
1 . 8 1
p - v a l u e
0 . 0 9 9 0 . 0 8 4
0 . 2 0 8
0 . 0 6 0 0 . 7 8 7 0 . 0 7 8
0 . 1 7 6
0 . 0 8 5 0 . 0 0 7
0 . 0 0 3
7 D u f f .
0 . 8 0
0 . 9 1 1 . 2 2
1 , 2 8 1 . 2 2
0 . 9 2 0 . 8 7
0 . 8 1 1 . 0 7 1 . 0 5
p - v a l u e
0 . 5 5 2
0 . 3 7 5 0 . 1 0 3 0 . 0 7 5
0 . 1 0 2 0 . 3 6 0
0 . 4 3 1
0 . 5 2 0
0 . 2 0 2
0 . 2 1 7
A l l S t o c k s , 1 9 9 2 t o
1 9 9 6
1 . 2 1
1 . 6 1 0 . 8 4 0 . 9 0
0 . 9 7
0 . 9 1 L 6 0 1 . 5 1
1 . 1 3 L O U
p - v a l u e
0 . 1 0 8
0 . 0 1 1 0 . 4 7 6
0 . 3 9 4
0 . 2 9 9 0 . 3 7 9
0 . 0 1 2 0 . 0 2 1 0 . 1 5 6
0 . 2 6 5
7 t ( ' . )
0 . 6 8 L 0 2 0 . 8 1
0 . 7 8
0 . 8 1 0 . 9 3
0 . 7 9 1 . 0 7 0 . 9 4
0 . 6 4
p - v a l u e
0 . 7 5 2 0 . 2 4 6
0 . 5 3 0
0 . 5 7 8
0 . 5 3 2 0 . 3 5 7
0 . 5 5 8
0 . 2 0 1 0 . 3 4 0
0 . 8 1 4
7 T ( / )
1 . 5 6 0 . 8 5
0 . 7 1
L 0 0
1 . 1 0
1 . 0 4
1 . 4 3 0 . 9 3 0 . 9 0
1 . 4 4
p - v a l u e
0 . 0 1 5
0 . 4 7 0
0 . 6 8 8 0 . 2 7 5
0 . 1 8 0
0 . 2 3 1
0 . 0 3 4
0 . 3 5 2
0 . 3 9 2 0 . 0 3 1
y D i f f .
1 . 4 5
0 . 5 9 0 . 9 4
0 . 6 2 1 . 1 5
1 . 1 4 0 . 6 4
0 . 5 2 0 . 5 9
1 . 3 5
p - v a l u e
0 . 0 3 0
0 . 8 7 9
0 . 3 4 6
0 . 8 4 0
0 . 1 3 9
0 . 1 4 8
0 . 8 1 4
0 , 9 5 3
0 . 8 7 4
0 . 0 5 2
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T a b l e I X
B o o t s t r a p p e r c e n t i l e s f o r t h e K o l m o g o r o v - S m i r n o v t e s t o f t h e e q u a l i t y o f c o n d i t i o n a l a n d u n c o n d i -
t i o n a l 1 - d a y r e t u r n d i s t r i b u t i o n s f o r N Y S E / A M E X a n d N A S D A Q s t o c k s f r o m 1 9 6 2 t o 1 9 9 6 , a n d
f o r s i z e q u i n t i l e s , u n d e r t h e n u l l h y p o t h e s i s o f e q u a l i t y . F o r e a c h o f t h e t w o s e t s o f m a r k e t d a t a ,
t w o s a m p l e s i z e s , i n 1 a n d i n 2 , h a v e b e e n c h o s e n t o s p a n t h e r a n g e o f f r e q u e n c y c o u n t s o f p a t t e r n s
r e p o r t e d i n T a b l e 1 . F o r e a c h s a m p l e s i z e m j , w e r e s a m p l e 1 - d a y n o r m a l i z e d r e t u r n s ( w i t h r e p l a c e -
m e n t ) t o o b t a i n a b o o t s t r a p s a m p l e o f m j
o b s e r v a t i o n s ,
c o m p u t e t h e K o h n o g o r o v - S m i r n o v t e s t
s t a t i s t i c ( a g a i n s t t h e e n t i r e s a m p l e o f 1 - d a y n o r m a l i z e d r e t u r n s ) , a n d r e p e a t t h i s p r o c e d u r e 1 , 0 0 0
t i m e s . T h e p e r c e n t i l e s o f t h e a s y m p t o t i c d i s t r i b u t i o n a r e a l s o r e p o r t e d f o r c o m p a r i s o n .
P e r c e n t i l e
N Y S E !
A M E X S a z n p e
N A S
D A Q S a m p l e
A m i , n
' 7 1 2
A
A m i , n
m 2 .
A
A l l S t o c k s ,
1 9 6 2 t o
1 9 9 6
0 . 0 1
0 . 0 5
0 . 1 0
0 . 5 0
0 . 9 0
0 . 9 5
0 . 9 9
2 0 7 6
2 0 7 6
2 0 7 6
2 0 7 6
2 0 7 6
2 0 7 6
2 0 7 6
0 . 4 3 3
0 . 5 1 5
0 . 5 6 8
0 . 8 2 7
1 . 2 1 9
1 . 3 3 5
1 . 6 0 8
7 2 5
0 . 4 3 5
0 . 4 4 1
1 3 2 0
7 2 5
0 . 5 3 5
0 . 5 2 0
1 3 2 0
7 2 5 0 . 5 9 0 0 . 5 7 1
1 3 2 0
7 2 5
0 . 8 3 5
0 . 8 2 8
1 3 2 0
7 2 5
1 . 2 3 7
1 . 2 2 4
1 3 2 0
7 2 5 1 . 3 9 5 1 . 3 5 8
1 3 2 0
7 2 5 1 . 6 1 1 1 . 6 2 8
1 3 2 0
0 . 4 3 0
0 . 5 1 4
0 . 5 7 3
0 . 8 4 0
1 . 2 4 4
1 . 3 7 3
1 . 6 4 5
4 1 4
0 . 4 3 8
4 1 4
0 . 5 2 2
4 1 4
0 . 5 6 6
4 1 4
0 . 8 2 6
4 1 4
1 . 2 2 9
4 1 4 1 . 3 4 0
4 1 4
1 . 6 0 0
0 . 4 4 1
0 . 5 2 0
0 . 5 7 1
0 . 8 2 8
1 . 2 2 4
1 . 3 5 8
1 . 6 2 8
S m a l l e s t Q u i n t i l e , 1 9 6 2 t o 1 9 9 6
0 . 0 1
0 . 0 5
0 . 1 0
0 . 5 0
0 . 9 0
0 . 9 5
0 . 9 9
3 2 0
3 2 0
3 2 0
3 2 0
3 2 0
3 2 0
3 2 0
0 . 4 5 6
0 . 5 3 5
0 . 5 8 6
0 . 8 4 8
1 . 2 3 1
1 . 3 5 7
1 . 6 6 1
7 8
0 . 4 0 6 0 . 4 4 1 2 1 8
7 8 0 . 5 0 2
0 . 5 2 0
2 1 8
7 8 0 . 5 5 9 0 . 5 7 1
2 1 8
7 8
0 . 8 1 4 0 . 8 2 8
2 1 8
7 8 1 . 2 0 4 1 . 2 2 4
2 1 8
7 8 1 . 3 3 0 1 . 3 5 8
2 1 8
7 8 1 . 5 9 0 1 , 6 2 8 2 1 8
0 . 4 5 9
0 . 5 3 3
0 . 5 9 0
0 . 8 4 7
1 . 2 2 9
1 . 3 8 1
1 . 7 0 8
4 1
0 . 4 3 6
4 1
0 . 4 9 8
4 1
0 . 5 4 3
4 1
0 . 8 0 1
4 1
1 . 2 1 6
4 1
1 . 3 3 2
4 1
1 . 5 7 1
0 . 4 4 1
0 . 5 2 0
0 . 5 7 1
0 . 8 2 8
1 . 2 2 4
1 . 3 5 8
1 . 6 2 8
.
2 n d Q u i n t i l e , 1 9 6 2
t o 1 9 9 6
0 . 0 1
0 . 0 5
0 . 1 0
0 . 5 0
0 . 9 0
0 . 9 5
0 . 9 9
4 2 0
4 2 0
4 2 0
4 2 0
4 2 0
4 2 0
4 2 0
0 . 4 4 5
0 . 5 3 0
0 . 5 8 0
0 . 8 3 1
L 1 9 7
1 . 3 4 9
1 . 6 3 4
1 4 6
0 . 4 2 8
0 . 4 4 1
3 0 5
1 4 6 0 . 5 0 5
0 . 5 2 0 -
3 0 5
1 4 6
0 . 5 5 3
0 . 5 7 1 3 0 5
1 4 6
0 . 8 2 3 0 . 8 2 8
3 0 5
1 4 6
1 . 2 1 0 1 . 2 2 4 3 0 5
1 4 6 1 . 3 4 3
1 . 3 5 8 3 0 5
1 4 6 1 . 6 2 6
1 . 6 2 8 3 0 5
0 . 4 5 8
0 . 5 5 7
0 . 6 1 0
0 . 8 6 2
1 . 2 6 5
1 . 4 0 7
1 . 6 8 6
6 8 0 . 4 2 6
6 8
0 . 5 0 1
6 8
0 , 5 5 9
6 8
0 . 8 0 4
6 8
1 . 2 1 0
6 8 1 . 4 0 9
6 8 1 . 6 1 4
0 . 4 4 1
0 . 5 2 0
0 . 5 7 1
0 . 8 2 8
1 . 2 2 4
1 , 3 5 8
1 . 6 2 8
3 r d Q u i n t i l e , 1 9 6 2
t o 1 9 9 6
0 . 0 1
0 . 0 5
0 . 1 0
0 . 5 0
0 . 9 0
0 . 9 5
0 . 9 9
4 5 8
4 5 8
4 5 8
4 5 8
4 5 8
4 5 8
4 5 8
0 . 4 4 2
0 . 5 1 6
0 . 5 5 9
0 . 8 3 3
1 . 2 1 6
1 . 4 0 6
1 . 6 6 0
1 4 5
0 . 4 5 8
0 . 4 4 1
2 7 9
1 4 5
0 . 5 0 8 0 . 5 2 0
2 7 9
1 4 5
0 . 5 5 7
0 . 5 7 1
2 7 9
1 4 5
0 . 8 3 5
0 . 8 2 8
2 7 9
1 4 5 1 . 2 5 1 1 . 2 2 4
2 7 9
1 4 5
1 . 3 9 7 1 . 3 5 8 2 7 9
1 4 5 1 . 6 6 1 1 . 6 2 8 2 7 9
0 . 4 6 4
0 . 5 3 9
0 . 5 8 6
0 . 8 3 2
1 . 2 2 0
1 . 3 5 7
1 . 6 0 6
1 0 5 0 . 4 2 5
1 0 5
0 . 5 2 5
1 0 5
0 . 5 7 0
1 0 5
0 . 8 1 8
1 0 5
1 . 2 3 3
1 0 5
1 . 3 5 5
1 0 5
1 . 6 3 8
0 . 4 4 1
0 . 5 2 0
0 . 5 7 1
0 . 8 2 8
1 . 2 2 4
1 . 3 5 8
1 . 6 2 8
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T a b l e I X ( c o n t i n u e d )
P e r c e n t i l e
N Y S E / A M E X S a m p l e
N A S D
A Q S a m p l e
m j
A n , , ,
7 7 1 2
A
t v i j
A m s , n
A m , , n
A
4 t h Q i i o t i l e , 1 9 6 2 t o 1 9 9 6
0 . 0 1
4 2 4
0 . 4 2 9 1 7 3
0 . 4 1 8
0 . 4 4 1 3 0 3 0 . 4 5 4 9 2
0 . 4 4 6
0 , 4 4 1
0 . 0 5 4 2 4 0 . 5 0 6 1 7 3
0 . 5 1 6 0 . 5 2 0
3 0 3 0 . 5 2 6
9 2
0 . 5 0 6
0 . 5 2 0
0 . 1 0 4 2 4 0 . 5 5 2 1 7 3
0 . 5 5 9
0 . 5 7 1 3 0 3 0 . 5 6 3
9 2 0 . 5 5 4
0 . 5 7 1
0 . 5 0
4 2 4
0 . 8 2 3
1 7 3
0 . 8 1 5 0 . 8 2 8 3 0 3 0 . 8 4 0
9 2
0 . 8 1 8
0 . 8 2 8
0 . 9 0
4 2 4
1 . 1 9 7 1 7 3 1 , 1 8 3 1 . 2 2 4
3 0 3
1 . 2 1 7 9 2
1 . 1 7 8
1 . 2 2 4
0 . 9 5 4 2 4 1 . 3 3 6
1 7 3 1 . 3 1 3
1 . 3 5 8
3 0 3 1 . 3 5 0 9 2
1 . 3 2 7
1 . 3 5 8
0 . 9 9 4 2 4 1 . 6 6 4 1 7 3
1 . 5 9 2
1 . 6 2 8 3 0 3
1 . 6 5 9 9 2 1 . 6 0 6
1 . 6 2 8
L a r g e s t Q u i n t i l e , 1 9 6 2
t o 1 9 9 6
0 . 0 1 5 6 1
0 . 4 2 1
1 6 7 0 . 4 2 5 0 . 4 4 1 3 0 8 0 . 4 4 1 1 0 8
0 . 4 2 9
0 . 4 4 1
0 . 0 5 5 6 1 0 . 5 0 9 1 6 7
0 . 5 0 0
0 . 5 W 3 0 8 0 . 5 2 0
1 0 8
0 . 5 0 8
0 . 5 2 0
0 . 1 0
5 6 1 0 . 5 5 7 1 6 7 0 . 5 5 4 0 . 5 7 1 3 0 8 0 . 5 7 3
1 0 8
0 . 5 5 8
0 . 5 7 1
0 . 5 0
5 6 1
0 . 8 3 0 1 5 7 0 . 8 1 7 0 . 8 2 8 3 0 8 0 . 8 4 2 1 0 8
0 . 8 1 6 0 . 8 2 8
0 . 9 0 5 6 1
1 . 2 1 8
1 6 7
1 . 2 0 2
1 . 2 2 4 ,
3 0 8 1 . 2 3 1
1 0 8
1 . 2 2 6 1 . 2 2 4
0 . 9 5 5 6 1 1 . 3 6 9 1 6 7
1 . 3 0 8 1 . 3 5 8 3 0 8 1 . 4 0 8 1 0 8 1 . 3 5 7
1 . 3 5 8
0 . 9 9 5 6 1 1 . 5 6 5 1 6 7 1 . 6 1 5 1 . 6 2 8 3 0 8 1 . 7 2 4 1 0 8
1 . 6 3 0
1 . 6 2 8
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T a b l e X ( c o n t i n u e d )
P e r c e n t i l e
N Y S E /
A M E X
S a m p l e
N A S I )
A Q S a m p l e
.
m j
A m i , , .
2
a m , , , .
a
l T h i
a 1 , .
2
a , , . , , , .
a
A l l S t o c k s , 1 9 8 2 t o 1 9 8 6
0 . 0 1
3 1 3 0 . 4 6 2 1 0 6 0 . 4 3 7
0 . 4 4 1
1 2 0
0 . 4 4 8
4 4
0 . 4 1 7 0 . 4 4 1
0 . 0 5 3 1 3 0 . 5 4 2
1 0 6
0 . 5 0 6 0 . 5 2 0 1 2 0
0 . 5 1 4
4 4
0 . 4 9 9 0 . 5 2 0
0 . 1 0 3 1 3
0 . 5 8 5 1 0 6 0 . 5 5 9 0 . 5 7 1 1 2 0
0 . 5 7 9
4 4
0 . 5 5 5
0 . 5 7 1
0 . 5 0 3 1 3
0 . 8 4 4
1 0 6 0 . 8 1 9 0 . 8 2 8 1 2 0
0 . 8 2 5
4 4 0 . 8 0 2
0 . 8 2 8
0 . 9 0
3 1 3 1 . 2 6 6 1 0 6 1 . 2 2 0 1 . 2 2 4 1 2 0 1 . 2 5 3 4 4
1 . 1 9 7
1 . 2 2 4
•
0 . 9 5 3 1 3
1 . 3 9 7
1 0 6
1 . 3 6 9 1 . 3 5 8
1 2 0
1 . 3 6 6
4 4
1 . 3 3 7 1 . 3 5 8
0 . 9 9 3 1 3 1 . 7 2 7 1 0 6 1 . 6 1 5 1 . 6 2 8 1 2 0 1 . 6 9 2
4 4
1 . 6 3 1 1 . 6 2 8
A l l S t o c k s , 1 9 8 7 t o 1 9 9 1
0 . 0 1
2 8 7
0 . 4 4 3
9 8
0 . 4 4 9 0 . 4 4 1 3 1 2 0 . 4 5 5
5 0
0 . 4 3 2 0 . 4 4 1
0 . 0 5 2 8 7
0 . 5 1 3
9 8
0 . 5 2 2 0 . 5 2 0 3 1 2 0 . 5 4 2
5 0
0 . 5 1 7
0 . 5 2 0
0 . 1 0
2 8 7 0 . 5 6 5 9 8
0 . 5 6 6 0 . 5 7 1 3 1 2 0 . 6 1 0 5 0 0 . 5 6 3
0 . 5 7 1
0 . 5 0 2 8 7 0 . 8 3 7 9 8 0 . 8 1 3 0 . 8 2 8 3 1 2 0 . 8 7 8 5 0 0 . 8 1 4
0 . 8 2 8
0 . 9 0
2 8 7 1 . 2 0 0 9 8 1 . 2 1 7
1 . 2 2 4
3 1 2 1 . 3 1 9 5 0 1 . 2 1 6 1 . 2 2 4
0 . 9 5
2 8 7 1 . 3 3 6 9 8 1 . 3 4 8 1 . 3 5 8
3 1 2 1 . 4 5 7
5 0 1 . 3 2 3 1 . 3 5 8
0 . 9 9
2 8 7 1 . 6 2 6
9 8
1 . 5 6 3 1 . 6 2 8 3 1 2 1 . 7 0 1
5 0 1 . 6 4 8 1 . 6 2 8
A l l S t o c k s , 1 9 9 2 t o 1 9 9 6
0 . 0 1
3 8 9 0 . 4 3 8 1 0 2 0 . 4 3 2 0 . 4 4 1 3 6 1
0 . 4 4 7
8 7 0 . 4 2 8
0 . 4 4 1
0 . 0 5
3 8 9 0 . 5 2 2
1 0 2
0 . 5 0 6
0 . 5 2 0 3 6 1 0 . 5 1 8
8 7 0 . 4 9 2
0 . 5 2 0
0 . 1 0 3 8 9
0 . 5 6 7 1 0 2
0 . 5 5 8 0 . 5 7 1 3 6 1
0 . 5 5 9
8 7 0 . 5 5 0 0 . 5 7 1
0 . 5 0 3 8 9 0 . 8 2 4 1 0 2 0 . 8 1 8
0 . 8 2 8
3 6 1
0 . 8 1 7
8 7
0 . 7 9 9
0 . 8 2 8
0 . 9 0 3 8 9 1 . 2 2 0
1 0 2
1 . 2 1 3 1 . 2 2 4 3 6 1
1 . 2 2 6
8 7
1 , 2 1 6
1 . 2 2 4
0 . 9 5
3 8 9 1 . 3 2 1 1 0 2 1 . 3 1 0 1 . 3 5 8 3 6 1
1 . 3 5 3
8 7 1 . 3 4 1
1 . 3 5 8
0 . 9 9
3 8 9 1 . 5 8 0 1 0 2
1 . 6 1 6 1 . 6 2 8 3 6 1
1 . 6 1 7
8 7 1 . 5 7 2 1 . 6 2 8