forum canada stock picking europe oct2011
TRANSCRIPT
Amundi Forum Stock Picking Europe
This material is solely for the attention of “professional” investors (see more details and definitions at the end of the presentation).
Amundi Canada Forum – October 2011 - page 2
“We believe that a company’s “fair value” is linked to its fundamentals and is revealed over the mid/long term.
We invest in companies offering
attractive intrinsic valuation, in all market segments.
Our fundamental analysis aims to determine companies’ mid-term sustainable growth and value creation potential.”
We believe…
EFFICIENT
PRAGMATIC
DISCIPLINED
A “boutique” within a large asset management company
A clear-cut investment philosophy: active, fundamental, « bottom-up»
A dedicated team: committed and experienced PMs, fully independent
An efficient decision-making process: interactive
A “boutique” with no a priori bias
One mission: to detect the best opportunities
No a priori bias, neither in term of style nor size
No constraint in sector / country
Highly disciplined in our investment process
A long term view: to select stocks in function of their « intrinsic » value
Systematic and rigorous 360° analysis of targeted companies
Assessing Target Price in function of mid term sustainable growth & value creation potential
We are …
A conviction-based portfolio (stock by stock)
An all-weather process (never in the extremes)
Avoiding bubbles (selling too early rather than too late)
Amundi Canada Forum – October 2011 - page 3
A team of 5 experienced fund managers Investment Specialists
Lead Fund Manager Euro
Philippe Mahé Portfolio construction
Investment ideas
Sectors followed
Lead Fund Manager France & Europe Olivier Baduel
Consumer Staples / Discretionary
Frédéric Le Meaux 15 yrs exp.
Olivier Baduel 16 yrs exp.
Capital Goods, Materials, IT & Energy
Philippe Mahé 12 yrs exp.
Telecoms, Pharmaceuticals & Utilities
Isabelle Horen-Lestang 9 yrs exp.
Team head Olivier Baduel Strategic Management/process
Financials
Frédéric Rosamond 9 yrs exp.
caroline.godlewski @amundi.com
frederic.hoogveld @amundi.com
Source: Amundi (May 2011) Amundi Canada Forum – October 2011 - page 4
Use of quantitative tools to identify and characterise research targets (valuation/ growth axes): Holt® and Factset
In-depth fundamental analysis of companies: Management, intrinsic qualities, environment Validation via company meetings (>400/year)
An interactive decision-making process, each investment case is presented and debated within the investment team Lead manager decides Target stock weights: 1.5% / 3% / 5% Fundamental sell discipline
Investment ideas Investment cases Stock selection Output
Details
PORTFOLIO 40-70 stocks
Universe ~600 stocks
Closely monitored ~150 stocks
1. Examine (pragmatic)
2. Understand (systematic)
3. Decide (interactive)
Three-step selection process
Investment rationales
Target price
Key risks
Formal approach to foster discussion in team
“Investment postcard”
Investment rationales
Target price
Key risks
Formal approach to foster discussion in team
“Investment postcard”
Rivalry between players
Barriers to entry
Bargaining power of suppliers
Bargaining power of clients
Substitution risks
Regulatory risk
Rivalry between players
Barriers to entry
Bargaining power of suppliers
Bargaining power of clients
Substitution risks
Regulatory risk
Given for indicative purpose only. Amundi Canada Forum – October 2011 - page 5
Company knowledge at the heart of the investment process
HOLTTM valuation tool1
Database (historical data) and analysis tool Three valuation methods: a proprietary method “CFROI”
and two DCF (with or without fade) “CFROI” reflects the value creation (return on capital
employed in relation to cost of capital) Team’s forecasts: 5 key assumptions (sales growth, level
of margins, tax rate, capex and working capital) Distinctive feature: takes into account a CFROI fade factor
(mean reverting to cost of capital)
1. A tool by Credit Suisse
Truck business: a cyclical businessMercedes Car:
ageing models in 2011 (new models having an impact from 2012 with S-class and C-class)
dependence on China (12% of volumes, est.20% of sales & 35% of Ebit)
Long term structural pressure on margins in cars: increased competition and mix shift to “low end”Management’s poor track record in term of communication & capital management
Target price: € 67 SOP : € 65 Ratios : € 70 (EV/IC) Holt : € 71
Daimler AG
•A
mun
di A
sset
Man
agem
ent
•
Investment rationales
Key risks
Robust top line growth (est. +7% & 8% in 2011 & 12) driven by cyclical recovery in trucks and continued growth in auto
Truck recovery driven by North America (est. +40% in 11 & +20% in 12) and Western Europe (est. +20% / +15%)
Mercedes Car will continue to grow (est. +7%) driven by robust demand in Germany, in the US and China
Improved profitability & CFROI Leverage effect in trucks (targeted average Ebit margin @ 8%, from
5% in 2010) Stable + margin (high single digit) in cars
Attractive upside potential (+45%) together with moderate risks (net industrial cash position, high and growing dividend yield, 4.5% in 2011)
Truck business: a cyclical businessMercedes Car:
ageing models in 2011 (new models having an impact from 2012 with S-class and C-class)
dependence on China (12% of volumes, est.20% of sales & 35% of Ebit)
Long term structural pressure on margins in cars: increased competition and mix shift to “low end”Management’s poor track record in term of communication & capital management
Target price: € 67 SOP : € 65 Ratios : € 70 (EV/IC) Holt : € 71
Daimler AG
•A
mun
di A
sset
Man
agem
ent
•
Investment rationales
Key risks
Robust top line growth (est. +7% & 8% in 2011 & 12) driven by cyclical recovery in trucks and continued growth in auto
Truck recovery driven by North America (est. +40% in 11 & +20% in 12) and Western Europe (est. +20% / +15%)
Mercedes Car will continue to grow (est. +7%) driven by robust demand in Germany, in the US and China
Improved profitability & CFROI Leverage effect in trucks (targeted average Ebit margin @ 8%, from
5% in 2010) Stable + margin (high single digit) in cars
Attractive upside potential (+45%) together with moderate risks (net industrial cash position, high and growing dividend yield, 4.5% in 2011)
Rivalry between players: medium
Mature markets: relatively new premium brands (Audi, Lexus)
Emerging market: huge demand creates shortages
Trucks : EM ambitions (China, India, Russia)
Barriers to entry: high Auto: Premium brand in DM &
EM Trucks: more & more scale
advantage thanks to “international” norms
Bargaining power of suppliers: medium to low
Tier One suppliers become more & more partners, “not only” suppliers
Productivity gains are shared
Bargaining power of clients: medium to high
Auto: Premium brands even if products cycle are of importance (incentives)
Trucks: cyclical demand creates temporary excess capacity
Substitution risks: low
Auto: Premium products, statutory products
Trucks : long term issue
Regulatory risk: mediumMore stringent environmental regulation (higher cost of R&D & broader range of
cars)
Rivalry between players: medium
Mature markets: relatively new premium brands (Audi, Lexus)
Emerging market: huge demand creates shortages
Trucks : EM ambitions (China, India, Russia)
Barriers to entry: high Auto: Premium brand in DM &
EM Trucks: more & more scale
advantage thanks to “international” norms
Bargaining power of suppliers: medium to low
Tier One suppliers become more & more partners, “not only” suppliers
Productivity gains are shared
Bargaining power of clients: medium to high
Auto: Premium brands even if products cycle are of importance (incentives)
Trucks: cyclical demand creates temporary excess capacity
Substitution risks: low
Auto: Premium products, statutory products
Trucks : long term issue
Regulatory risk: mediumMore stringent environmental regulation (higher cost of R&D & broader range of
cars)
Scenario: DCX 03_2011 Currency: EUR FY: 2009Market Cap : 48,937 EUR
Automobile Manufa cturers P rice : 47,79 (mars 11, 2011)F Y Warranted P rice : 71 ,41 EUR (49% )
Qtr: 3 Country: GermanyScenario: DCX 03_2011 Currency: EUR FY: 2009Market Cap : 48,937 EUR
Automobile Manufa cturers P rice : 47,79 (mars 11, 2011)F Y Warranted P rice : 71 ,41 EUR (49% )
Qtr: 3 Country: GermanyScenario: DCX 03_2011 Currency: EUR FY: 2009 Market Cap : 48,937 EUR
Automobile Manufacturers Price: 47,79 (mars 11, 2011) FY Warranted Price : 71,41 EUR (49%)
Qtr: 3 Country: Germany
Given for illustrative purpose only. Amundi Canada Forum – October 2011 - page 6
Consistent excess return vis-à-vis the benchmark
Source: Amundi. Gross performance in EUR to 29/04/2011 Past performances do not prejudge of future performances.
French-domiciled fund “Select Euro” performance vs. benchmark
French-domiciled fund “Select Europe” performance vs. benchmark
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
juin04
déc04
juin05
déc05
juin06
déc06
juin07
déc07
juin08
déc08
juin09
déc09
juin10
déc10
AMUND I S E LE C T E UR O -‐ I 100% MS C I E UR O NR C lo s e
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
juin04
déc04
juin05
déc05
juin06
déc06
juin07
déc07
juin08
déc08
juin09
déc09
juin10
déc10
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
déc06
mars07
juin07
s ept07
déc07
mars08
juin08
s ept08
déc08
mars09
juin09
s ept09
déc09
mars10
juin10
s ept10
déc10
mars11
AMUND I S E LE C T E UR OP E -‐ P 100% MS C I E UR OP E (16) NR C lo s e
95
100
105
110
115
déc06
mars07
juin07
s ept07
déc07
mars08
juin08
s ept08
déc08
mars09
juin09
s ept09
déc09
mars10
juin10
s ept10
déc10
mars11
Excess return Excess return
Excess return + 13.7% cumulated +3.3% annualised
Excess return + 25.9% cumulated +2.8% annualised
Amundi Canada Forum – October 2011 - page 7
1st quartile over 1 year, 3 years & 5 years
On average, an annualised excess return of 2%+ vs. competitors (net of fees)
Consistent excess return vis-à-vis the competition
Source: Lipper database Funds registered for sale in Europe
Olivier Baduel
Past performances do not prejudge of future performances. Amundi Canada Forum – October 2011 - page 8
Gross performancein EUR
Tracking-error(ex-post)
29/04/2011 1 yr 3 yrs 5 yrs 3 yrs 5 yrs 3 yrs 5 yrs 3 yrs Composite Benchmark
Stock-picking French Equities
1.3% 11.7% 14.0% 3.9% 2.7% 0.9 0.8 4.2% 19.1% 22.0%
Stock-picking Euro zone Equities
2.4% 10.9% 14.0% 3.8% 2.9% 1.0 0.9 3.8% 19.8% 22.4%
Stock-picking European Equities
2.8% 10.6% 12.3% 3.5% 2.4% 0.8 0.7 4.2% 17.6% 19.8%
Cumulative Excess return
AnnualisedExcess return Information ratio Volatility 3 years
Conviction-based with high alpha generation
Unconstrained but moderate risk
– High information ratios
– High qualitative ratings
Performance over the long term
Source: Amundi, Lipper, Morningstar. Past performance does not prejudge future results, nor is it a guarantee of future returns Benchmarks are net dividends reinvested. GIPS benchmarks: For Stock-picking French Equities: SBF 120. For Stock-picking Euro Zone Equities: Composite benchmark: 66.0% MSCI EURO + 11.8% CAC40 + 11.7% DJ EUROSTOXX 50 + 7.4% DJ EUROSTOXX LARGE + 3.1% MSCI EMU. For Stock-picking European Equities: MSCI Europe 16 (EUR).
Morningstar
29/04/2011 Category
Amundi Select France Equities France Amundi Select Euro Equities Euro zone Amundi Select Europe Equities Europe
Lipper Leaders (overall)Rating
(Overall)Totalreturn
Consistentreturn
Capitalpreservation
Amundi Canada Forum – October 2011 - page 9
The Europe Stock-picking postcard
Valuation focusing on 2 criteria - Sustainable growth - Value creation
“Sell too early rather than too late”
High IR High conviction Strong alpha generation Focused portfolios (40-70)
Unconstrained, but moderate risk Volatility < benchmark Ex-ante TE: 3-7%
Pragmatic approach No a priori style bias An “all-weather” process
Mid-term horizon 12-18 months
• A
mun
di A
sset
Man
agem
ent
•
A “Core” investment
Disciplined
Europe Stock-picking
Amundi Canada Forum – October 2011 - page 10
Our convictions
France Euro Europe
Number of stocks 47 58 66 Top 10 holdings 53.1% 31.1% 31.0%
Main overweight holdings French stocks Euro stocks (outside
French stocks) European stocks (outside Euro stocks)
Vivendi Royal Dutch Shell Richemont
Thales Daimler Clariant
Saint-Gobain GEA Group Vodafone
Main overweight sectors
Main underweight sectors
Source: Amundi Data as of 29/04/2011 Given for indicative purpose only.
8.3
-3.4
-2.2
1.1
ConsumerDisc.
Industrie
Materials
Telecom
4.7
-2.8
2.6
-2.7
ConsumerDisc.
Energy
Telecom
Financials
8.6
-3.2
-3.1
3.5
ConsumerDisc.
Energy
Financials
ConsumerStaples
Amundi Canada Forum – October 2011 - page 11
Market environment
Source : Factset Past performances do not prejudge of future performances.
Economic environment Sustained economic recovery, cooling in EM & “accelerating” in DM High liquidity environment progressively normalizing
– End of QE2 – Rising rates in EM, first move from ECB
Short term risks – High raw materials prices put pressure on global economic growth prospects & on margins – Higher geopolitical/geographical risks : MEA & Greece (sovereign risk) – Consequences of the Japanese earthquake & tsunami (fading)
European equities
Attractive valuation – Moderate ratios – Robust EPS growth and/or attractive yields – Room for further normalisation of the equity risk premium
E PS G rowth PE PE PE Y ield PerformanceMay 17, 2011 es t. es t. es t. es t.
2010 2011 2012 2010 2011 2012 2011 2010 YTD
S &P 500 Index F ixed 58.6% 16.0% 13.6% 15.1x 13.5x 11.9x 1.92% 12.8% 3.7%
S TOXX 600 F ixed 51.0% 15.0% 13.2% 12.8x 11.4x 10.0x 3.65% 8.6% -‐0.1%
E uro S TOXX F ixed 51.4% 13.3% 14.3% 12.3x 11.4x 9.9x 3.90% -‐0.1% 2.4%
F rance S B F 120 F ixed 57.6% 14.0% 13.5% 12.5x 11.5x 10.0x 3.81% 0.1% 2.8%
in %
Amundi Canada Forum – October 2011 - page 12
Market views (1/2)
Source : Goldman Sachs Past performances do not prejudge of future performances.
Very sound listed companies (exposed to EM growth, very efficiently managed, highly cash generative)
Cyclical stocks (industrial & consumer) are benefiting from WW growth, rerating is over, upside potential linked to earnings growth
Financial sector needs more clarity on regulation, suffers from low growth / low yield environment, but offers attractive apparent multiples
Domestic stocks offer “no or low” growth, but high dividend yields
Much more than the modest growth of developed countries
Higher average exposure to EM than generally thought
Real growth driver for the most exposed companies (mainly in cyclical sectors)
Breakdown of Sales by regionCompanies with EM exposure >30%
BRIC 17%
Other
developed 2%
Other EM 20%
Eastern Europe 5%
USA 10%
Developed Europe 46%
Breakdown of Sales by regionMSCI Euro Index
Eastern Europe 4%
USA 13%
Other developed
2%
Other EM 9%
BRIC 8%
Developed Europe 57%
Amundi Canada Forum – October 2011 - page 13
MSCI Europe2009 2010 2011 2012 12M Forw Last 12 M 2009 2010 2011 2012
Consumer Discretionary 2.9 2.2 3.3 3.7 3.4 3.0 -25% -3% 13% 15%Consumer Staples 2.8 2.8 3.3 3.6 3.4 3.1 3% 13% 9% 9%Energy 4.8 3.4 4.1 4.3 4.2 3.7 5% -30% 18% 5%Financials 2.4 3.2 3.9 4.7 4.2 3.7 -64% 22% 11% 18%Health Care 3.2 3.6 3.8 4.0 3.9 3.6 8% 11% 7% 7%Industrials 2.7 2.0 3.1 3.4 3.2 2.9 -19% -12% 9% 12%Information Technology 2.4 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.5 2.3 -24% 2% 8% 7%Materials 2.1 1.7 2.5 2.8 2.6 2.3 -33% -2% 11% 11%Telecommunications Services 5.5 6.1 6.8 7.3 7.0 6.7 -11% 12% 2% 7%Utilities 5.4 5.7 5.5 5.8 5.6 5.6 14% -4% -3% 5%Total 3.2 3.1 3.8 4.2 3.9 3.6 -26% 0% 9% 11%
Dividend Yield Dividend Chge
Market views (2/2)
Source : Amundi Strategy, Factset. 13/05/2011 Past performances do not prejudge of future performances.
Financial sector : still high risk premium New regulatory environment puts pressure on returns and on risk premium .. … as does the peripheral countries risk premium
Domestic sectors: low growth, if not no growth, but very high dividend yield A cocktail that could become more attractive
2010 2011 2012 2010 2011 2012MSCI Europe Financials 58% 14% 21% 12.8 9.6 7.9
MSCI Europe 28% 14% 13% 14.7 11.1 9.9
EPS growth PE
Amundi Canada Forum – October 2011 - page 14
Conclusion: Key facts
A proven investment approach implemented by a strong and stable team Bottom-up stock-picking investment process implemented consistently since July 2004 2 Lead PMs working together for 12 years
A conviction-based approach offering high performance and information ratios Avg. 3% annualised excess return over 3 - 5 years 0.7 - 1 information ratios over 3 - 5 years
Strong experience with institutional clients Total AUM € 5.4 bn, of which 16 institutional mandates for € 2.3 bn
The strength and resources of a leading asset manager together with a boutique organisation
Source: Amundi, April 2011. GIPS Composite performance, Gross of fees in EUR. Date 29/04/2011 Past performances do not prejudge of future performances.
Amundi Canada Forum – October 2011 - page 15
Amundi Canada Forum – October 2011 - page 16
Appendices
– Team’s factsheet p.17 – Investment process in detail p.18 – Risk monitoring p.25 – Fund factsheets & performance attribution p.27 – Fund Characteristics p.33
Our approach
Active: Concentrated: 40-70 stocks in portfolio Top 10 holdings ~ 30-60% of portfolio Ex-ante TE 3 - 7%
Fundamental: In-depth company analysis & valuation with HoltTM
400 company meetings a year Sell discipline: fundamental-based, no stop loss
Bottom-up: Portfolio built stock by stock, no Top-down allocation Total flexibility in country/sector weights Typical stock weights: 1.5% / 3% / 5%
Mid-term: 12-18 month investment horizon
Our assets
AUM: € 5.4 billion on a single strategy Nb of portfolios: 32 portfolios: mutual funds, dedicated mandates, sub-portfolios
Team’s factsheet
Source: Amundi as at 29/04/2011 Amundi Canada Forum – October 2011 - page 17
Multiple sources of information
News flow
Buy-side analysts
Sell-side research
Quant screenings
Company meetings
Screening for ideas
Pragmatic rather than systematic approach
Identify “tipping points”: factors with high impact on valuation – Change in the Supply/Demand balance,
change in management, change in the regulatory environment, financial restructuring
Detect the “best opportunities”: risk/ reward profiles
Characterise investment ideas: systematic use of HOLT™ and Factset ExcelConnect tools1
Identify and characterise investment ideas
1. HOLTTM is a database and analysis tool developed by Credit Suisse, using a proprietary discounted cash flow valuation method called CFROI (Cash Flow Return On Investment) Factset ExcelConnect is a consensus database integrating valuation, financial data, reference indices, shareholding structure and economic data into the Microsoft Excel platform
Step 1: Examine
Amundi Canada Forum – October 2011 - page 18
In-depth analysis
Company key facts
Competitive environment
Valuation
Company meeting
Step 2: Understand
Formulate and validate investment cases
Comprehensive analysis of companies
In-depth qualitative analysis – Company specific: products, brand equity,
management team – Competitive environment: intensity of
competition, barriers to entry, substitution risks, regulatory environment
Comprehensive financial analysis: – Value creation model (Holt™ tool): capital
intensity, margins dynamics – Valuation: key ratios, earnings growth, dynamic
of revision
Validation through company meetings – Over 400 company meetings per year
Amundi Canada Forum – October 2011 - page 19
Premium brand & size advantage
Rivalry between players: medium
Mature markets: relatively new premium brands (Audi, Lexus)
Emerging market: huge demand creates shortages
Trucks : EM ambitions (China, India, Russia)
Barriers to entry: high Auto: Premium brand in DM &
EM Trucks: more & more scale
advantage thanks to “international” norms
Bargaining power of suppliers: medium to low
Tier One suppliers become more & more partners, “not only” suppliers
Productivity gains are shared
Bargaining power of clients: medium to high
Auto: Premium brands even if products cycle are of importance (incentives)
Trucks: cyclical demand creates temporary excess capacity
Substitution risks: low Auto: Premium products,
statutory products Trucks : long term issue
Regulatory risk: medium More stringent environmental regulation (higher cost of R&D & broader range of
cars)
Daimler AG competitive environment
Step 2 - Example: Analyzing competitive environment
Amundi Canada Forum – October 2011 - page 20
PM
PM PM
PM
PM
Team debate
Selection by lead manager
PM: Portfolio Manager
Step 3: Decide
Structured decision-making process Formalise investment cases using an
“Investment postcard”
Present and debate within team
Lead manager takes the decision – No time limits for decision-making
Every fund manager fully aware and responsible
Investment rationales
Target price
Key risks
Formal approach to foster discussion in team
“Investment postcard”
Interactive decision-making, one decision maker
Amundi Canada Forum – October 2011 - page 21
Add stock to the portfolio with an initial target price of € 83
Source: Amundi Given for illustrative purpose only.
Truck business: a cyclical business Mercedes Car:
ageing models in 2011 (new models having an impact from 2012 with S-class and C-class)
dependence on China (12% of volumes, est.20% of sales & 35% of Ebit)
Long term structural pressure on margins in cars: increased competition and mix shift to “low end” Management’s poor track record in term of communication & capital management
Target price: € 67 SOP : € 65 Ratios : € 70 (EV/IC) Holt : € 71
Daimler AG
• A
mun
di A
sset
Man
agem
ent
•
Investment rationales
Key risks
Robust top line growth (est. +7% & 8% in 2011 & 12) driven by cyclical recovery in trucks and continued growth in auto
Truck recovery driven by North America (est. +40% in 11 & +20% in 12) and Western Europe (est. +20% / +15%)
Mercedes Car will continue to grow (est. +7%) driven by robust demand in Germany, in the US and China
Improved profitability & CFROI
Leverage effect in trucks (targeted average Ebit margin @ 8%, from 5% in 2010)
Stable + margin (high single digit) in cars
Attractive upside potential (+45%) together with moderate risks (net industrial cash position, high and growing dividend yield, 4.5% in 2011)
Step 3 - Example: Formalising the investment decision
Amundi Canada Forum – October 2011 - page 22
Holt valuation: DAIMLER AG
Source: Amundi, Holt Given for illustrative purpose only.
Scenario: DCX 03_2011 Currency: EUR FY: 2009Market Cap : 48,937 EUR
Automobile Manufa cturers P rice : 47,79 (mars 11, 2011)F Y Warranted P rice : 71 ,41 EUR (49% )
Qtr: 3 Country: GermanyScenario: DCX 03_2011 Currency: EUR FY: 2009Market Cap : 48,937 EUR
Automobile Manufa cturers P rice : 47,79 (mars 11, 2011)F Y Warranted P rice : 71 ,41 EUR (49% )
Qtr: 3 Country: GermanyScenario: DCX 03_2011 Currency: EUR FY: 2009 Market Cap : 48,937 EUR
Automobile Manufacturers Price: 47,79 (mars 11, 2011) FY Warranted Price : 71,41 EUR (49%)
Qtr: 3 Country: Germany
Amundi Canada Forum – October 2011 - page 23
Bottom-up construction relying on PM expertise
Target weights depend on stocks’ risk/return profile
– Typical weights: 1.5%, 3% or 5%
Portfolio holdings: 40 to 70
Consistency of portfolio based on manager internal discipline
Sell discipline driven by key fundamentals
Sell decision triggered by:
– Target price reached
– Key risk event
– Event modifying investment rationale
Continuous monitoring of portfolio holdings
No “stop loss” rules
– Review of investment case in the event of strong underperformance
Step 3: Efficient implementation of investment choices
Amundi Canada Forum – October 2011 - page 24
Risk monitoring A powerful front office tool to monitor & implement:
– Portfolio exposure : line by line, by sector, currency, market caps – Also available : by country, ex-ante TE, Barra beta …
Amundi Canada Forum – October 2011 - page 25
Risk management - An integral part of the investment process
Bottom-up portfolios construction with implicit diversification
Media + proprietary portfolio management system
MSCI Barra to monitor risk exposures (weekly)
Factset for performance attribution (monthly)
Risk control - Conducted at three independent levels
Level 1: Investment team
Trading desk Middle office
Level 3: Internal Audit
Client portfolio
Level 2: Risk, Performance & Permanent Control
Compliance
14 staff
>60 Risk managers centrally + local staff
Pre-trade constraint engine
~12 Compliance staff centrally + 40 local staff
Best execution policy
Monitoring of positions (DECALOG)
Use of RiskMetrics (ex ante TE)
We provide a formal risk management framework
Amundi Canada Forum – October 2011 - page 26
AUM: € 237m
Reference index: MSCI Euro net dividends reinvested
Excess return: 2.8 % annualised over 5 years
Philippe Mahé
Top 5 Over/Underweight Sector allocation (in relative terms)
Performance
French-domiciled fund “Select Euro”: performance and breakdown
Portfolio data as of 29/04/2011 Past performance does not prejudge future results, nor is it a guarantee of future returns Source: Amundi
Amundi Select Euro Portfolioweight
Benchmarkweight
Over-weight
ROYAL DUTCH SHELL 2.8% 0.0% 2.8%DAIMLER 4.3% 2.2% 2.1%GEA GROUP 1.8% 0.0% 1.8%BNP PARIBAS 4.2% 2.4% 1.8%CLARIANT 1.7% 0.0% 1.7%
Amundi Select Euro Portfolioweight
Benchmarkweight
Under-weight
TOTAL 2.2% 4.3% -2.1%SIEMENS 2.3% 3.8% -1.5%TELEFONICA 2.0% 3.5% -1.5%ANHEUSER-BUSCH INBEV 0.0% 1.5% -1.5%FRANCE TELECOM 0.0% 1.3% -1.3%-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
Energy
Materia
ls
Indus
trials IT
Cons. D
iscr.
Cons. S
taples
Health C
are
Teleco
m Serv.
Utilitie
s
Financia
ls
29/04/2011Portfolio Index Spread
YTD 6.4 7.9 -1.51 year 14.3 11.9 2.4 1.0
3 years 0.8 -12.8 13.6 1.05 years 7.2 -6.9 14.1 0.7
Since 30/06/2004 57.8 31.9 25.8 0.8
Cumulative gross performance Information ratio
Amundi Canada Forum – October 2011 - page 27
5.0
-35.7
8.1
21.226.5
6.0
26.9
-44.1
9.6
19.124.3
5.5
25.3
2.4 0.73.8
2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 (July -Dec.)
Portfolio Index
Large Caps with good
visibility 5% cash
Strong UW on Financials
Performance – French-domiciled fund “Select Euro” Focus on Mid caps & cyclicals
with leverage Started selling financials in
Summer
-1.6%
+8.4%
-1.6%
+2.1% +2.2% +0.5%
Started selling mid caps &
cyclicals in Spring Shift to Large
Caps with good visibility
Strong rally of beta stocks (high leverage,
cyclicals & small caps)
Underperformance of quality stocks (OW)
CGG Veritas, PGS, Arcelor, GEA Group
ArcelorMittal, CGG Veritas,
PGS, GEA Group, Inbev
ABN Amro, Norske Skog
Fortis, Alcatel, GEA Group
GDF Suez, Fortis, Air Liquide, Dassault Syst.
VW, Telefonica, Daimler
GDF Suez, Santander, BBVA, Anheuser-Busch Inbev, France Tel
VW, Technip, BNP Paribas, Generali,
LVMH
+4.3%
Safran, Clariant, GEA Group, UW BBVA, Daimler Nat Bank of
Greece, no Volkswagen, no
BMW, Hellenic Tel, Thales
-1.4%
Source: Amundi, data as of 31/03/2011 Gross performance in EUR Past performance does not prejudge future results, nor is it a guarantee of future returns.
Clariant, Nokia,
Safran, CFAO, Renault, Daimler No Anheuser Busch Inbev, no
RWE, Hellenic Tel, Saint Gobain
Cyclical stocks (consumer)
outperformed. Financials penalised by regulatory
uncertainties & sovereign risks exposure
Amundi Canada Forum – October 2011 - page 28
AUM: € 287 m
Reference index: MSCI Europe net dividends reinvested
Excess return: 2.4% annualised over 5 years
Olivier Baduel
French-domiciled fund “Select Europe”: performance and breakdown
Performance
Source: Amundi, Portfolio data as of 29/04/2011 Past performance does not prejudge future results, nor is it a guarantee of future returns
Top 5 Over/Underweight Sector allocation (in relative terms) Amundi Select Europe Portfolio
weightBenchmark
weightOver-
weightSAINT GOBAIN 3.1% 0.3% 2.7%KLOECKNER & CO 2.5% 0.0% 2.5%RICHEMONT 2.9% 0.4% 2.5%SAP 2.9% 0.7% 2.2%DAIMLER 2.9% 0.9% 2.0%
Amundi Select Europe Portfolioweight
Benchmarkweight
Under-weight
NESTLE 1.0% 2.7% -1.7%SIEMENS 0.0% 1.5% -1.5%TELEFONICA 0.0% 1.4% -1.4%BANCO SANTANDER 0.0% 1.3% -1.3%BHP BILLITON 0.0% 1.2% -1.2%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
Energy
Materia
ls
Indus
trials IT
Cons. D
iscr.
Cons. S
taples
Health C
are
Teleco
m Serv.
Utilitie
s
Financia
ls
29/04/2011Portfolio Index Spread
YTD 4.1 4.0 0.11 year 14.9 12.0 2.8 1.2
3 years 6.1 -4.5 10.6 0.85 years 8.9 -3.5 12.4 0.6
Since 31/03/2006 9.9 -2.5 12.4 0.58
Cumulative gross performance Information ratio
Amundi Canada Forum – October 2011 - page 29
12.0
25.4
-34.8
6.7 8.0
31.6
-43.7
2.7
10.8
0.9
11.1
0.6
2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 (April -Dec.)
Portfolio Index Vivendi, Nestle, RBS, GDF Suez, France Tel VW, Unicredito, AstraZeneca, Telefonica
Performance – French-domiciled fund “Select Europe” Started selling financials in
Summer
-6.2%
+8.8%
+4.0%
-2.8%
Started selling mid caps & cyclicals in
Spring Shift to Large Caps with good visibility
Large Caps with good visibility 5.5% cash
Strong UW on Financials
Strong rally of beta stocks (high leverage, cyclicals & small caps) Underperformance of quality stocks (OW)
4.6% cash
Experian, Sanofi-Aventis, Corus,
Commerzbank, Dassault ArcelorMittal, Bca Pop di Milano, InBev, Michelin
Siemens, E.ON, Vodafone, GEA Group,
Salzgitter Norske Skog, STM, Bca
Pop di Milano, Ericsson
GDF Suez, Santander, France
Tel, Vivendi, Danone BNP Paribas, PPR,
VW, Barclays, Axa
Safran,
Richemont, no Banco Santander,
GEA Group, Petroleum GeoServ Nat. Bank of Greece, Thales, Carrefour, Nokia, Hellenic Telecom
+0.9%
+0.3%
Bulgari, Saint-
Gobain, Kloeckner, SAP, BNP Paribas,
Capgemini Nokia, Clariant, Richemont, CFAO
Source: Amundi, Data as of 31/03/2011 Gross performance in EUR Past performance does not prejudge future results, nor is it a guarantee of future returns.
Non-Euro & cyclical stocks outperformed
Euro & sectors exposed to sovereign risks (banks)
& utilities
Amundi Canada Forum – October 2011 - page 30
AUM: € 368m
Reference index: SBF 120 net dividends reinvested
Excess return: 3% annualised over 5 years
Performance
French-domiciled fund “Select France”: performance and breakdown
Source: Amundi, Portfolio data as of 29/04/2011 Past performance does not prejudge future results, nor is it a guarantee of future returns
Olivier Baduel
Top 5 Over/Underweight Sector allocation (in relative terms) Amundi Select France Portfolio
weightBenchmark
weightOver-
weightVIVENDI 5.3% 2.8% 2.5%THALES 2.7% 0.3% 2.4%SAINT GOBAIN 4.3% 2.0% 2.4%SAFRAN 2.7% 0.5% 2.2%PPR 2.6% 1.0% 1.6%
Amundi Select France Portfolioweight
Benchmarkweight
Under-weight
ARCELORMITTAL 0.0% 2.4% -2.4%VINCI 0.0% 2.3% -2.3%FRANCE TELECOM 1.3% 3.3% -2.0%UNIBAIL RODAMCO 0.0% 1.6% -1.6%TOTAL 8.8% 10.3% -1.5%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
Energy
Materia
ls
Indus
trials IT
Cons. D
iscr.
Cons. S
taples
Health C
are
Teleco
m Serv.
Utilitie
s
Financia
ls
29/04/2011Portfolio Index Spread
YTD 7.9 8.0 0.01 year 14.6 12.5 2.1 1.1
3 years 7.5 -5.5 13.0 1.15 years 11.3 -3.9 15.3 0.9
Since 30/06/2004 66.4 40.8 25.6 0.8
Cumulative gross performance Information ratio
Amundi Canada Forum – October 2011 - page 31
5.5
-32.7
4.3
25.4 26.9
2.82.9
28.9
-40.9
3.0
22.3
28.3
2.9
27.1
3.9 4.6
2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 (Juillet -Déc.)
Portefeuille Indice
Performance – French-domiciled fund “Select France”
+2.6%
+8.2%
+1.3% +3.1% -1.4% -0.1%
Snecma, France Tel, Michelin
Vallourec, Sodexo, Capgemini
CGG Veritas, Vallourec, Suez,
Alstom
No Alcatel-
Lucent, UW Crédit Agricole, Suez Norske Skog
GDF Suez, Sodexo, UW Dexia
UW LVMH, GDF Suez, UW Société Générale, Vivendi,
France Tel Technip, BNP
Paribas, PPR, Axa
Source: Amundi, 31/03/2011 Gross performance in EUR Past performance does not prejudge future results, nor is it a guarantee of future returns.
-1.8%
Capgemini,
UW Dexia Sanofi,
ArcelorMittal
Safran, Cie Gale
Geophysique, Dassault Syst,
Technip, UW Alstom Thales, EDF,
Ipsen, PagesJaunes
-0.7%
no Alcatel Lucent,
Safran, UW Axa, CFAO
UW ArcelorMittal, no Pernod Ricard, Saint-Gobain, Cap
Gemini
Cyclicals outperform, pressure on Financials
(risk premium peripheral countries and regulation)
Focus on mid caps & cyclicals with leverage
Started selling Financials (summer)
Started selling mid caps & cyclicals in
the Spring Shift to Large Caps with good visibility
Large Caps with good visibility 5.8% cash
Strong underweight on Financials
« Rally » of high beta stocks (strong
leverage, cyclicals and small caps)
Under-performance of quality stocks (OW)
Amundi Canada Forum – October 2011 - page 32
Amundi Funds Select Euro1: Key information
* Only for distributors authorized by Board of Directors ** Or equivalent in another currency *** Or, as the case may be, an earlier cut off time applicable by the relevant distributor 1 To be named “Amundi Funds Equity Euro Select” from June 24th, 2011.
A (All Investors) I (Institutional investors) S (Distributors)
Management company Amundi Luxembourg S.A.
Investment manager Amundi
Custodian CACEIS Bank Luxembourg
Reference currency EUR
Minimum recommended period 5 years
AUM as of 31/03/2011 € 22 million
ISIN Code Accumulation: LU0401973978
Distribution: LU0401974190
Accumulation: LU0401973549
Distribution: LU0401973622
Accumulation: LU0401974273
BLOOMBERG Ticker Accumulation: CAAESCA LX
Distribution: CAAESDD LX
Accumulation: CAAESIA LX
Distribution: CAAESID LX
Accumulation: CAAESSS LX
Minimum initial subscription 1 thousandth of share USD 500 000** 1 thousandth of share
Share categories Accumulation / Distribution Accumulation
Frequency of NAV calculation Daily
Cut off for dealing times Luxembourg Dealing days before 2pm***
Maximum initial charge 4.50% 2.50% 3.00%
Maximum annual management fee 1.30% 0.65% 1.70%
Annual administration fee 0.35% 0.25% 0.35%
Performance fee 20% max of outperformance
Maximum conversion fee 1.00%
Maximum redemption fee None
Amundi Canada Forum – October 2011 - page 33
Amundi Funds Select Europe1: Key information A (All Investors) I (Institutional investors) S (Distributors)
Management company Amundi Luxembourg S.A.
Investment manager Amundi
Custodian CACEIS Bank Luxembourg
Reference currency EUR
Minimum recommended period 5 years
AUM as of 31/03/2011 € 29 million
ISIN Code Accumulation: LU0401974943
Distribution: LU0401975163
Accumulation: LU0401974356
Distribution: LU0401974513
Accumulation: LU0401975320
BLOOMBERG Ticker Accumulation: CASEECA LX
Distribution: CASEECD LX
Accumulation: CASEEUI LX
Distribution: CASEEID LX
Accumulation: CASEEUS LX
Minimum initial subscription 1 thousandth of share USD 500 000** 1 thousandth of share
Share categories Accumulation / Distribution Accumulation
Frequency of NAV calculation Daily
Cut off for dealing times Luxembourg Dealing days before 2pm***
Maximum initial charge 4.50% 2.50% 3.00%
Maximum annual management fee
1.30% 0.65% 1.70%
Annual administration fee 0.35% 0.25% 0.35%
Performance fee 20% max of outperformance
Maximum conversion fee 1.00%
Maximum redemption fee None
* Only for distributors authorized by Board of Directors ** Or equivalent in another currency *** Or, as the case may be, an earlier cut off time applicable by the relevant distributor 1 To be named “Amundi Funds Equity Europe Select” from June 24th, 2011.
Amundi Canada Forum – October 2011 - page 34
Disclaimer
This material is solely for the attention of institutional, professional, qualified or sophisticated investors and distributors. It is not to be distributed to the general public, private customers or retail investors in any jurisdiction whatsoever nor to “US Persons”. Moreover, any such investor should be, in the European Union, a “Professional” investor as defined in Directive 2004/39/EC dated 21 April 2004 on markets in financial instruments (“MIFID”) or as the case may be in each local regulations and, as far as the offering in Switzerland is concerned, a “Qualified Investor” within the meaning of the provisions of the Swiss Collective Investment Schemes Ordinance of 23 June 2006 (CISA), the Swiss Collective Investment Schemes Ordinance of 22 November 2006 (CISO) and the FINMA’s Circular 08/8 on Public Offering within the meaning of the legislation on Collective Investment Schemes of 20 November 2008. In no event may this material be distributed in the European Union to non “Professional” investors as defined in the MIFID or in each local regulation, or in Switzerland to investors who do not comply with the definition of “qualified investors” as defined in the applicable legislation and regulation.
Amundi, French joint stock company (“Société Anonyme”) with a registered capital of € 578 002 350 and approved by the French Securities Regulator (Autorité des Marchés Financiers-AMF) under number GP 04000036 as a portfolio management company 90 boulevard Pasteur -75015 Paris- France 437 574 452 RCS Paris. www.amundi.com
This document contains information about Amundi Funds Select Euro and Amundi Funds Select Europe (the “Sub-Funds”), sub-funds of Amundi Funds (the “SICAV”), an undertaking for collective investment in transferable securities existing under Part I of the Luxembourg law of 20 December 2002, organised as a société d’investissement à capital variable and registered with the Luxembourg Trade and Companies Register under number B68.806. The SICAV has its registered office at 5, allée Scheffer, l-2520 Luxembourg.
Amundi Funds has been authorised for public sale by the Commission de Surveillance du Secteur Financier in Luxembourg.
Not all sub-funds of the SICAV (the "Sub-Funds") will necessarily be registered or authorized for sale in all jurisdictions or be available to all investors.
Subscriptions in the Sub-Funds will only be accepted on the basis of the SICAV’s latest complete and simplified prospectuses, its latest annual and semi-annual reports and its articles of incorporation that may be obtained, free of charge, at the registered office of the SICAV or respectively at that of the representative agent duly authorized and agreed by the relevant authority of each relevant concerned jurisdiction.
Consideration should be given to whether the risks attached to an investment in the Sub-Funds are suitable for prospective investors who should ensure that they fully understand the contents of this document. A professional advisor should be consulted to determine whether an investment in the Sub-Funds is suitable.
The value of, and any income from, an investment in the Sub-Funds can decrease as well as increase. The Sub- Funds have no guaranteed performance. Further, past performance is not a guarantee or a reliable indicator for current or future performance and returns. The performance data do not take account of the commissions and costs incurred on the issue and redemption of units.
This document does not constitute an offer to buy nor a solicitation to sell in any country where it might be considered as unlawful, nor does it constitute public advertising or investment advice.
The information contained in this document is deemed accurate as at May 2011.
Amundi Canada Forum – October 2011 - page 35
Canadian Disclaimer Amundi Canada Inc., 2000 McGill College Avenue, Suite 1920 Montreal QC H3A 3H3 (“Amundi Canada”), is a corporation incorporated under the laws of Canada and a wholly-owned subsidiary of Amundi, a corporation incorporated under French law. Both are indirectly held jointly by Crédit Agricole (to the level of 75 %) and Société Générale (to the level of 25 %), two banks incorporated under French law which have agreed to combine their asset management activities under the name of “Amundi”. Asset management services in respect of the above-mentioned client provided for pursuant to the portfolio management agreement entered into between Amundi Canada and such client has been delegated by Amundi Canada to Amundi, pursuant to sub-advisor agreements entered with Amundi. Amundi Canada is registered as portfolio manager in the provinces of Quebec, Nova Scotia, Ontario, Alberta and British Columbia. Amundi Canada is also registered as a limited market dealer in the same provinces. The information provided herein is confidential and is addressed exclusively to Canadian institutional investors and to any other exempt category within the meaning of the applicable laws. This information is not meant to be distributed or used by any person or entity in a country or jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to legal or regulatory requirements, or would obligate Amundi Canada or its affiliates (together, the “Crédit Agricole group”) to any registration requirements in such country or jurisdiction. Moreover, unless otherwise specified, the date provided herein is for informational purposes only and it does not constitute an offer to buy, a solicitation to sell, an investment advice regarding a security, an offer or solicitation by Amundi Canada or by any member of the Crédit Agricole group to provide an advice or a financial, legal, fiscal or investment service or to buy or sell financial instruments. Neither Amundi Canada nor any member of the Crédit Agricole group can warrant or declare, implicitly or explicitly, that the information provided herein is exact, complete or current.
Amundi Canada Inc. 2000 McGill College Avenue Suite 1920 Montreal (Quebec) H3A 3H3 Tel.: +1 514 982-2900 Fax: +1 514 982-2915
www.amundi.com
Amundi Canada Forum – October 2011 - page 36