forum canada stock picking europe oct2011

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Amundi Forum Stock Picking Europe This material is solely for the attention of “professional” investors (see more details and definitions at the end of the presentation).

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Page 1: Forum Canada Stock Picking Europe Oct2011

Amundi Forum Stock Picking Europe

This material is solely for the attention of “professional” investors (see more details and definitions at the end of the presentation).

Page 2: Forum Canada Stock Picking Europe Oct2011

Amundi Canada Forum – October 2011 - page 2

“We believe that a company’s “fair value” is linked to its fundamentals and is revealed over the mid/long term.

We invest in companies offering

attractive intrinsic valuation, in all market segments.

Our fundamental analysis aims to determine companies’ mid-term sustainable growth and value creation potential.”

We believe…

Page 3: Forum Canada Stock Picking Europe Oct2011

EFFICIENT

PRAGMATIC

DISCIPLINED

A “boutique” within a large asset management company

A clear-cut investment philosophy: active, fundamental, « bottom-up»

A dedicated team: committed and experienced PMs, fully independent

An efficient decision-making process: interactive

A “boutique” with no a priori bias

One mission: to detect the best opportunities

No a priori bias, neither in term of style nor size

No constraint in sector / country

Highly disciplined in our investment process

A long term view: to select stocks in function of their « intrinsic » value

Systematic and rigorous 360° analysis of targeted companies

Assessing Target Price in function of mid term sustainable growth & value creation potential

We are …

A conviction-based portfolio (stock by stock)

An all-weather process (never in the extremes)

Avoiding bubbles (selling too early rather than too late)

Amundi Canada Forum – October 2011 - page 3

Page 4: Forum Canada Stock Picking Europe Oct2011

A team of 5 experienced fund managers Investment Specialists

Lead Fund Manager Euro

Philippe Mahé Portfolio construction

Investment ideas

Sectors followed

Lead Fund Manager France & Europe Olivier Baduel

Consumer Staples / Discretionary

Frédéric Le Meaux 15 yrs exp.

Olivier Baduel 16 yrs exp.

Capital Goods, Materials, IT & Energy

Philippe Mahé 12 yrs exp.

Telecoms, Pharmaceuticals & Utilities

Isabelle Horen-Lestang 9 yrs exp.

Team head Olivier Baduel Strategic Management/process

Financials

Frédéric Rosamond 9 yrs exp.

caroline.godlewski @amundi.com

frederic.hoogveld @amundi.com

Source: Amundi (May 2011) Amundi Canada Forum – October 2011 - page 4

Page 5: Forum Canada Stock Picking Europe Oct2011

Use of quantitative tools to identify and characterise research targets (valuation/ growth axes): Holt® and Factset

In-depth fundamental analysis of companies: Management, intrinsic qualities, environment Validation via company meetings (>400/year)

An interactive decision-making process, each investment case is presented and debated within the investment team Lead manager decides Target stock weights: 1.5% / 3% / 5% Fundamental sell discipline

Investment ideas Investment cases Stock selection Output

Details

PORTFOLIO 40-70 stocks

Universe ~600 stocks

Closely monitored ~150 stocks

1. Examine (pragmatic)

2. Understand (systematic)

3. Decide (interactive)

Three-step selection process

Investment rationales

Target price

Key risks

Formal approach to foster discussion in team

“Investment postcard”

Investment rationales

Target price

Key risks

Formal approach to foster discussion in team

“Investment postcard”

Rivalry between players

Barriers to entry

Bargaining power of suppliers

Bargaining power of clients

Substitution risks

Regulatory risk

Rivalry between players

Barriers to entry

Bargaining power of suppliers

Bargaining power of clients

Substitution risks

Regulatory risk

Given for indicative purpose only. Amundi Canada Forum – October 2011 - page 5

Page 6: Forum Canada Stock Picking Europe Oct2011

Company knowledge at the heart of the investment process

HOLTTM valuation tool1

  Database (historical data) and analysis tool   Three valuation methods: a proprietary method “CFROI”

and two DCF (with or without fade)   “CFROI” reflects the value creation (return on capital

employed in relation to cost of capital)   Team’s forecasts: 5 key assumptions (sales growth, level

of margins, tax rate, capex and working capital)   Distinctive feature: takes into account a CFROI fade factor

(mean reverting to cost of capital)

1. A tool by Credit Suisse

Truck business: a cyclical businessMercedes Car:

ageing models in 2011 (new models having an impact from 2012 with S-class and C-class)

dependence on China (12% of volumes, est.20% of sales & 35% of Ebit)

Long term structural pressure on margins in cars: increased competition and mix shift to “low end”Management’s poor track record in term of communication & capital management

Target price: € 67 SOP : € 65 Ratios : € 70 (EV/IC) Holt : € 71

Daimler AG

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Investment rationales

Key risks

Robust top line growth (est. +7% & 8% in 2011 & 12) driven by cyclical recovery in trucks and continued growth in auto

Truck recovery driven by North America (est. +40% in 11 & +20% in 12) and Western Europe (est. +20% / +15%)

Mercedes Car will continue to grow (est. +7%) driven by robust demand in Germany, in the US and China

Improved profitability & CFROI Leverage effect in trucks (targeted average Ebit margin @ 8%, from

5% in 2010) Stable + margin (high single digit) in cars

Attractive upside potential (+45%) together with moderate risks (net industrial cash position, high and growing dividend yield, 4.5% in 2011)

Truck business: a cyclical businessMercedes Car:

ageing models in 2011 (new models having an impact from 2012 with S-class and C-class)

dependence on China (12% of volumes, est.20% of sales & 35% of Ebit)

Long term structural pressure on margins in cars: increased competition and mix shift to “low end”Management’s poor track record in term of communication & capital management

Target price: € 67 SOP : € 65 Ratios : € 70 (EV/IC) Holt : € 71

Daimler AG

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Man

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Investment rationales

Key risks

Robust top line growth (est. +7% & 8% in 2011 & 12) driven by cyclical recovery in trucks and continued growth in auto

Truck recovery driven by North America (est. +40% in 11 & +20% in 12) and Western Europe (est. +20% / +15%)

Mercedes Car will continue to grow (est. +7%) driven by robust demand in Germany, in the US and China

Improved profitability & CFROI Leverage effect in trucks (targeted average Ebit margin @ 8%, from

5% in 2010) Stable + margin (high single digit) in cars

Attractive upside potential (+45%) together with moderate risks (net industrial cash position, high and growing dividend yield, 4.5% in 2011)

Rivalry between players: medium

Mature markets: relatively new premium brands (Audi, Lexus)

Emerging market: huge demand creates shortages

Trucks : EM ambitions (China, India, Russia)

Barriers to entry: high Auto: Premium brand in DM &

EM Trucks: more & more scale

advantage thanks to “international” norms

Bargaining power of suppliers: medium to low

Tier One suppliers become more & more partners, “not only” suppliers

Productivity gains are shared

Bargaining power of clients: medium to high

Auto: Premium brands even if products cycle are of importance (incentives)

Trucks: cyclical demand creates temporary excess capacity

Substitution risks: low

Auto: Premium products, statutory products

Trucks : long term issue

Regulatory risk: mediumMore stringent environmental regulation (higher cost of R&D & broader range of

cars)

Rivalry between players: medium

Mature markets: relatively new premium brands (Audi, Lexus)

Emerging market: huge demand creates shortages

Trucks : EM ambitions (China, India, Russia)

Barriers to entry: high Auto: Premium brand in DM &

EM Trucks: more & more scale

advantage thanks to “international” norms

Bargaining power of suppliers: medium to low

Tier One suppliers become more & more partners, “not only” suppliers

Productivity gains are shared

Bargaining power of clients: medium to high

Auto: Premium brands even if products cycle are of importance (incentives)

Trucks: cyclical demand creates temporary excess capacity

Substitution risks: low

Auto: Premium products, statutory products

Trucks : long term issue

Regulatory risk: mediumMore stringent environmental regulation (higher cost of R&D & broader range of

cars)

Scenario: DCX 03_2011 Currency: EUR FY: 2009Market Cap : 48,937 EUR

Automobile  Manufa cturers P rice :  47,79  (mars  11,  2011)F Y  Warranted  P rice  :  71 ,41  EUR  (49% )

Qtr: 3 Country: GermanyScenario: DCX 03_2011 Currency: EUR FY: 2009Market Cap : 48,937 EUR

Automobile  Manufa cturers P rice :  47,79  (mars  11,  2011)F Y  Warranted  P rice  :  71 ,41  EUR  (49% )

Qtr: 3 Country: GermanyScenario: DCX 03_2011 Currency: EUR FY: 2009 Market Cap : 48,937 EUR

Automobile Manufacturers Price: 47,79 (mars 11, 2011) FY Warranted Price : 71,41 EUR (49%)

Qtr: 3 Country: Germany

Given for illustrative purpose only. Amundi Canada Forum – October 2011 - page 6

Page 7: Forum Canada Stock Picking Europe Oct2011

Consistent excess return vis-à-vis the benchmark

Source: Amundi. Gross performance in EUR to 29/04/2011 Past performances do not prejudge of future performances.

French-domiciled fund “Select Euro” performance vs. benchmark

French-domiciled fund “Select Europe” performance vs. benchmark

60  

80  

100  

120  

140  

160  

180  

200  

juin04

déc04

juin05

déc05

juin06

déc06

juin07

déc07

juin08

déc08

juin09

déc09

juin10

déc10

AMUND I  S E LE C T  E UR O  -­‐  I 100%  MS C I  E UR O  NR  C lo s e

90  

95  

100  

105  

110  

115  

120  

125  

130  

juin04

déc04

juin05

déc05

juin06

déc06

juin07

déc07

juin08

déc08

juin09

déc09

juin10

déc10

40  

50  

60  

70  

80  

90  

100  

110  

120  

déc06

mars07

juin07

s ept07

déc07

mars08

juin08

s ept08

déc08

mars09

juin09

s ept09

déc09

mars10

juin10

s ept10

déc10

mars11

AMUND I  S E LE C T  E UR OP E  -­‐  P 100%  MS C I  E UR OP E  (16)  NR  C lo s e

95  

100  

105  

110  

115  

déc06

mars07

juin07

s ept07

déc07

mars08

juin08

s ept08

déc08

mars09

juin09

s ept09

déc09

mars10

juin10

s ept10

déc10

mars11

Excess return Excess return

Excess return + 13.7% cumulated +3.3% annualised

Excess return + 25.9% cumulated +2.8% annualised

Amundi Canada Forum – October 2011 - page 7

Page 8: Forum Canada Stock Picking Europe Oct2011

1st quartile over 1 year, 3 years & 5 years

On average, an annualised excess return of 2%+ vs. competitors (net of fees)

Consistent excess return vis-à-vis the competition

Source: Lipper database Funds registered for sale in Europe

Olivier Baduel

Past performances do not prejudge of future performances. Amundi Canada Forum – October 2011 - page 8

Page 9: Forum Canada Stock Picking Europe Oct2011

Gross performancein EUR

Tracking-error(ex-post)

29/04/2011 1 yr 3 yrs 5 yrs 3 yrs 5 yrs 3 yrs 5 yrs 3 yrs Composite Benchmark

Stock-picking French Equities

1.3% 11.7% 14.0% 3.9% 2.7% 0.9 0.8 4.2% 19.1% 22.0%

Stock-picking Euro zone Equities

2.4% 10.9% 14.0% 3.8% 2.9% 1.0 0.9 3.8% 19.8% 22.4%

Stock-picking European Equities

2.8% 10.6% 12.3% 3.5% 2.4% 0.8 0.7 4.2% 17.6% 19.8%

Cumulative Excess return

AnnualisedExcess return Information ratio Volatility 3 years

 Conviction-based with high alpha generation

 Unconstrained but moderate risk

–  High information ratios

–  High qualitative ratings

Performance over the long term

Source: Amundi, Lipper, Morningstar. Past performance does not prejudge future results, nor is it a guarantee of future returns Benchmarks are net dividends reinvested. GIPS benchmarks: For Stock-picking French Equities: SBF 120. For Stock-picking Euro Zone Equities: Composite benchmark: 66.0% MSCI EURO + 11.8% CAC40 + 11.7% DJ EUROSTOXX 50 + 7.4% DJ EUROSTOXX LARGE + 3.1% MSCI EMU. For Stock-picking European Equities: MSCI Europe 16 (EUR).

Morningstar

29/04/2011 Category

Amundi Select France Equities France Amundi Select Euro Equities Euro zone Amundi Select Europe Equities Europe

Lipper Leaders (overall)Rating

(Overall)Totalreturn

Consistentreturn

Capitalpreservation

Amundi Canada Forum – October 2011 - page 9

Page 10: Forum Canada Stock Picking Europe Oct2011

The Europe Stock-picking postcard

  Valuation focusing on 2 criteria -  Sustainable growth -  Value creation

  “Sell too early rather than too late”

High IR High conviction   Strong alpha generation   Focused portfolios (40-70)

Unconstrained, but moderate risk   Volatility < benchmark   Ex-ante TE: 3-7%

Pragmatic approach   No a priori style bias   An “all-weather” process

Mid-term horizon   12-18 months

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A “Core” investment

Disciplined

Europe Stock-picking

Amundi Canada Forum – October 2011 - page 10

Page 11: Forum Canada Stock Picking Europe Oct2011

Our convictions

France Euro Europe

Number of stocks 47 58 66 Top 10 holdings 53.1% 31.1% 31.0%

Main overweight holdings French stocks Euro stocks (outside

French stocks) European stocks (outside Euro stocks)

Vivendi Royal Dutch Shell Richemont

Thales Daimler Clariant

Saint-Gobain GEA Group Vodafone

Main overweight sectors

Main underweight sectors

Source: Amundi Data as of 29/04/2011 Given for indicative purpose only.

8.3

-3.4

-2.2

1.1

ConsumerDisc.

Industrie

Materials

Telecom

4.7

-2.8

2.6

-2.7

ConsumerDisc.

Energy

Telecom

Financials

8.6

-3.2

-3.1

3.5

ConsumerDisc.

Energy

Financials

ConsumerStaples

Amundi Canada Forum – October 2011 - page 11

Page 12: Forum Canada Stock Picking Europe Oct2011

Market environment

Source : Factset Past performances do not prejudge of future performances.

Economic environment  Sustained economic recovery, cooling in EM & “accelerating” in DM  High liquidity environment progressively normalizing

–  End of QE2 –  Rising rates in EM, first move from ECB

 Short term risks –  High raw materials prices put pressure on global economic growth prospects & on margins –  Higher geopolitical/geographical risks : MEA & Greece (sovereign risk) –  Consequences of the Japanese earthquake & tsunami (fading)

European equities

 Attractive valuation –  Moderate ratios –  Robust EPS growth and/or attractive yields –  Room for further normalisation of the equity risk premium

E PS  G rowth PE PE PE Y ield PerformanceMay  17,  2011 es t. es t. es t. es t.

2010 2011 2012 2010 2011 2012 2011 2010 YTD

S &P  500  Index  F ixed 58.6% 16.0% 13.6% 15.1x 13.5x 11.9x 1.92% 12.8% 3.7%

S TOXX  600  F ixed 51.0% 15.0% 13.2% 12.8x 11.4x 10.0x 3.65% 8.6% -­‐0.1%

E uro  S TOXX  F ixed 51.4% 13.3% 14.3% 12.3x 11.4x 9.9x 3.90% -­‐0.1% 2.4%

F rance  S B F  120  F ixed 57.6% 14.0% 13.5% 12.5x 11.5x 10.0x 3.81% 0.1% 2.8%

in  %

Amundi Canada Forum – October 2011 - page 12

Page 13: Forum Canada Stock Picking Europe Oct2011

Market views (1/2)

Source : Goldman Sachs Past performances do not prejudge of future performances.

Very sound listed companies (exposed to EM growth, very efficiently managed, highly cash generative)

 Cyclical stocks (industrial & consumer) are benefiting from WW growth, rerating is over, upside potential linked to earnings growth

 Financial sector needs more clarity on regulation, suffers from low growth / low yield environment, but offers attractive apparent multiples

 Domestic stocks offer “no or low” growth, but high dividend yields

Much more than the modest growth of developed countries

 Higher average exposure to EM than generally thought

 Real growth driver for the most exposed companies (mainly in cyclical sectors)

Breakdown of Sales by regionCompanies with EM exposure >30%

BRIC 17%

Other

developed 2%

Other EM 20%

Eastern Europe 5%

USA 10%

Developed Europe 46%

Breakdown of Sales by regionMSCI Euro Index

Eastern Europe 4%

USA 13%

Other developed

2%

Other EM 9%

BRIC 8%

Developed Europe 57%

Amundi Canada Forum – October 2011 - page 13

Page 14: Forum Canada Stock Picking Europe Oct2011

MSCI Europe2009 2010 2011 2012 12M Forw Last 12 M 2009 2010 2011 2012

Consumer Discretionary 2.9 2.2 3.3 3.7 3.4 3.0 -25% -3% 13% 15%Consumer Staples 2.8 2.8 3.3 3.6 3.4 3.1 3% 13% 9% 9%Energy 4.8 3.4 4.1 4.3 4.2 3.7 5% -30% 18% 5%Financials 2.4 3.2 3.9 4.7 4.2 3.7 -64% 22% 11% 18%Health Care 3.2 3.6 3.8 4.0 3.9 3.6 8% 11% 7% 7%Industrials 2.7 2.0 3.1 3.4 3.2 2.9 -19% -12% 9% 12%Information Technology 2.4 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.5 2.3 -24% 2% 8% 7%Materials 2.1 1.7 2.5 2.8 2.6 2.3 -33% -2% 11% 11%Telecommunications Services 5.5 6.1 6.8 7.3 7.0 6.7 -11% 12% 2% 7%Utilities 5.4 5.7 5.5 5.8 5.6 5.6 14% -4% -3% 5%Total 3.2 3.1 3.8 4.2 3.9 3.6 -26% 0% 9% 11%

Dividend Yield Dividend Chge

Market views (2/2)

Source : Amundi Strategy, Factset. 13/05/2011 Past performances do not prejudge of future performances.

Financial sector : still high risk premium  New regulatory environment puts pressure on returns and on risk premium ..  … as does the peripheral countries risk premium

Domestic sectors: low growth, if not no growth, but very high dividend yield  A cocktail that could become more attractive

2010 2011 2012 2010 2011 2012MSCI Europe Financials 58% 14% 21% 12.8 9.6 7.9

MSCI Europe 28% 14% 13% 14.7 11.1 9.9

EPS growth PE

Amundi Canada Forum – October 2011 - page 14

Page 15: Forum Canada Stock Picking Europe Oct2011

Conclusion: Key facts

A proven investment approach implemented by a strong and stable team  Bottom-up stock-picking investment process implemented consistently since July 2004  2 Lead PMs working together for 12 years

A conviction-based approach offering high performance and information ratios  Avg. 3% annualised excess return over 3 - 5 years  0.7 - 1 information ratios over 3 - 5 years

Strong experience with institutional clients  Total AUM € 5.4 bn, of which 16 institutional mandates for € 2.3 bn

The strength and resources of a leading asset manager together with a boutique organisation

Source: Amundi, April 2011. GIPS Composite performance, Gross of fees in EUR. Date 29/04/2011 Past performances do not prejudge of future performances.

Amundi Canada Forum – October 2011 - page 15

Page 16: Forum Canada Stock Picking Europe Oct2011

Amundi Canada Forum – October 2011 - page 16

Appendices

–  Team’s factsheet p.17 –  Investment process in detail p.18 –  Risk monitoring p.25 –  Fund factsheets & performance attribution p.27 –  Fund Characteristics p.33

Page 17: Forum Canada Stock Picking Europe Oct2011

Our approach

  Active: Concentrated: 40-70 stocks in portfolio Top 10 holdings ~ 30-60% of portfolio Ex-ante TE 3 - 7%

  Fundamental: In-depth company analysis & valuation with HoltTM

400 company meetings a year Sell discipline: fundamental-based, no stop loss

  Bottom-up: Portfolio built stock by stock, no Top-down allocation Total flexibility in country/sector weights Typical stock weights: 1.5% / 3% / 5%

  Mid-term: 12-18 month investment horizon

Our assets

  AUM: € 5.4 billion on a single strategy   Nb of portfolios: 32 portfolios: mutual funds, dedicated mandates, sub-portfolios

Team’s factsheet

Source: Amundi as at 29/04/2011 Amundi Canada Forum – October 2011 - page 17

Page 18: Forum Canada Stock Picking Europe Oct2011

Multiple sources of information

News flow

Buy-side analysts

Sell-side research

Quant screenings

Company meetings

Screening for ideas

Pragmatic rather than systematic approach

 Identify “tipping points”: factors with high impact on valuation –  Change in the Supply/Demand balance,

change in management, change in the regulatory environment, financial restructuring

 Detect the “best opportunities”: risk/ reward profiles

 Characterise investment ideas: systematic use of HOLT™ and Factset ExcelConnect tools1

Identify and characterise investment ideas

1. HOLTTM is a database and analysis tool developed by Credit Suisse, using a proprietary discounted cash flow valuation method called CFROI (Cash Flow Return On Investment) Factset ExcelConnect is a consensus database integrating valuation, financial data, reference indices, shareholding structure and economic data into the Microsoft Excel platform

Step 1: Examine

Amundi Canada Forum – October 2011 - page 18

Page 19: Forum Canada Stock Picking Europe Oct2011

In-depth analysis

Company key facts

Competitive environment

Valuation

Company meeting

Step 2: Understand

Formulate and validate investment cases

Comprehensive analysis of companies

 In-depth qualitative analysis –  Company specific: products, brand equity,

management team –  Competitive environment: intensity of

competition, barriers to entry, substitution risks, regulatory environment

 Comprehensive financial analysis: –  Value creation model (Holt™ tool): capital

intensity, margins dynamics –  Valuation: key ratios, earnings growth, dynamic

of revision

 Validation through company meetings –  Over 400 company meetings per year

Amundi Canada Forum – October 2011 - page 19

Page 20: Forum Canada Stock Picking Europe Oct2011

Premium brand & size advantage

Rivalry between players: medium

  Mature markets: relatively new premium brands (Audi, Lexus)

  Emerging market: huge demand creates shortages

  Trucks : EM ambitions (China, India, Russia)

Barriers to entry: high   Auto: Premium brand in DM &

EM   Trucks: more & more scale

advantage thanks to “international” norms

Bargaining power of suppliers: medium to low

 Tier One suppliers become more & more partners, “not only” suppliers

 Productivity gains are shared

Bargaining power of clients: medium to high

 Auto: Premium brands even if products cycle are of importance (incentives)

 Trucks: cyclical demand creates temporary excess capacity

Substitution risks: low   Auto: Premium products,

statutory products   Trucks : long term issue

Regulatory risk: medium More stringent environmental regulation (higher cost of R&D & broader range of

cars)

Daimler AG competitive environment

Step 2 - Example: Analyzing competitive environment

Amundi Canada Forum – October 2011 - page 20

Page 21: Forum Canada Stock Picking Europe Oct2011

PM

PM PM

PM

PM

Team debate

Selection by lead manager

PM: Portfolio Manager

Step 3: Decide

Structured decision-making process  Formalise investment cases using an

“Investment postcard”

 Present and debate within team

  Lead manager takes the decision –  No time limits for decision-making

 Every fund manager fully aware and responsible

Investment rationales

Target price

Key risks

Formal approach to foster discussion in team

“Investment postcard”

Interactive decision-making, one decision maker

Amundi Canada Forum – October 2011 - page 21

Page 22: Forum Canada Stock Picking Europe Oct2011

Add stock to the portfolio with an initial target price of € 83

Source: Amundi Given for illustrative purpose only.

Truck business: a cyclical business Mercedes Car:

  ageing models in 2011 (new models having an impact from 2012 with S-class and C-class)

  dependence on China (12% of volumes, est.20% of sales & 35% of Ebit)

Long term structural pressure on margins in cars: increased competition and mix shift to “low end” Management’s poor track record in term of communication & capital management

Target price: € 67   SOP : € 65   Ratios : € 70 (EV/IC)   Holt : € 71

Daimler AG

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Investment rationales

Key risks

Robust top line growth (est. +7% & 8% in 2011 & 12) driven by cyclical recovery in trucks and continued growth in auto

  Truck recovery driven by North America (est. +40% in 11 & +20% in 12) and Western Europe (est. +20% / +15%)

  Mercedes Car will continue to grow (est. +7%) driven by robust demand in Germany, in the US and China

Improved profitability & CFROI

  Leverage effect in trucks (targeted average Ebit margin @ 8%, from 5% in 2010)

  Stable + margin (high single digit) in cars

Attractive upside potential (+45%) together with moderate risks (net industrial cash position, high and growing dividend yield, 4.5% in 2011)

Step 3 - Example: Formalising the investment decision

Amundi Canada Forum – October 2011 - page 22

Page 23: Forum Canada Stock Picking Europe Oct2011

Holt valuation: DAIMLER AG

Source: Amundi, Holt Given for illustrative purpose only.

Scenario: DCX 03_2011 Currency: EUR FY: 2009Market Cap : 48,937 EUR

Automobile  Manufa cturers P rice :  47,79  (mars  11,  2011)F Y  Warranted  P rice  :  71 ,41  EUR  (49% )

Qtr: 3 Country: GermanyScenario: DCX 03_2011 Currency: EUR FY: 2009Market Cap : 48,937 EUR

Automobile  Manufa cturers P rice :  47,79  (mars  11,  2011)F Y  Warranted  P rice  :  71 ,41  EUR  (49% )

Qtr: 3 Country: GermanyScenario: DCX 03_2011 Currency: EUR FY: 2009 Market Cap : 48,937 EUR

Automobile Manufacturers Price: 47,79 (mars 11, 2011) FY Warranted Price : 71,41 EUR (49%)

Qtr: 3 Country: Germany

Amundi Canada Forum – October 2011 - page 23

Page 24: Forum Canada Stock Picking Europe Oct2011

Bottom-up construction relying on PM expertise

  Target weights depend on stocks’ risk/return profile

– Typical weights: 1.5%, 3% or 5%

  Portfolio holdings: 40 to 70

 Consistency of portfolio based on manager internal discipline

Sell discipline driven by key fundamentals

  Sell decision triggered by:

– Target price reached

– Key risk event

– Event modifying investment rationale

 Continuous monitoring of portfolio holdings

 No “stop loss” rules

– Review of investment case in the event of strong underperformance

Step 3: Efficient implementation of investment choices

Amundi Canada Forum – October 2011 - page 24

Page 25: Forum Canada Stock Picking Europe Oct2011

Risk monitoring  A powerful front office tool to monitor & implement:

–  Portfolio exposure : line by line, by sector, currency, market caps –  Also available : by country, ex-ante TE, Barra beta …

Amundi Canada Forum – October 2011 - page 25

Page 26: Forum Canada Stock Picking Europe Oct2011

Risk management - An integral part of the investment process

 Bottom-up portfolios construction with implicit diversification

 Media + proprietary portfolio management system

 MSCI Barra to monitor risk exposures (weekly)

 Factset for performance attribution (monthly)

Risk control - Conducted at three independent levels

Level 1: Investment team

Trading desk Middle office

Level 3: Internal Audit

Client portfolio

Level 2: Risk, Performance & Permanent Control

Compliance

14 staff

>60 Risk managers centrally + local staff

Pre-trade constraint engine

~12 Compliance staff centrally + 40 local staff

Best execution policy

Monitoring of positions (DECALOG)

Use of RiskMetrics (ex ante TE)

We provide a formal risk management framework

Amundi Canada Forum – October 2011 - page 26

Page 27: Forum Canada Stock Picking Europe Oct2011

AUM: € 237m

Reference index: MSCI Euro net dividends reinvested

Excess return: 2.8 % annualised over 5 years

Philippe Mahé

Top 5 Over/Underweight Sector allocation (in relative terms)

Performance

French-domiciled fund “Select Euro”: performance and breakdown

Portfolio data as of 29/04/2011 Past performance does not prejudge future results, nor is it a guarantee of future returns Source: Amundi

Amundi Select Euro Portfolioweight

Benchmarkweight

Over-weight

ROYAL DUTCH SHELL 2.8% 0.0% 2.8%DAIMLER 4.3% 2.2% 2.1%GEA GROUP 1.8% 0.0% 1.8%BNP PARIBAS 4.2% 2.4% 1.8%CLARIANT 1.7% 0.0% 1.7%

Amundi Select Euro Portfolioweight

Benchmarkweight

Under-weight

TOTAL 2.2% 4.3% -2.1%SIEMENS 2.3% 3.8% -1.5%TELEFONICA 2.0% 3.5% -1.5%ANHEUSER-BUSCH INBEV 0.0% 1.5% -1.5%FRANCE TELECOM 0.0% 1.3% -1.3%-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

Energy

Materia

ls

Indus

trials IT

Cons. D

iscr.

Cons. S

taples

Health C

are

Teleco

m Serv.

Utilitie

s

Financia

ls

29/04/2011Portfolio Index Spread

YTD 6.4 7.9 -1.51 year 14.3 11.9 2.4 1.0

3 years 0.8 -12.8 13.6 1.05 years 7.2 -6.9 14.1 0.7

Since 30/06/2004 57.8 31.9 25.8 0.8

Cumulative gross performance Information ratio

Amundi Canada Forum – October 2011 - page 27

Page 28: Forum Canada Stock Picking Europe Oct2011

5.0

-35.7

8.1

21.226.5

6.0

26.9

-44.1

9.6

19.124.3

5.5

25.3

2.4 0.73.8

2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 (July -Dec.)

Portfolio Index

Large Caps with good

visibility 5% cash

Strong UW on Financials

Performance – French-domiciled fund “Select Euro” Focus on Mid caps & cyclicals

with leverage Started selling financials in

Summer

-1.6%

+8.4%

-1.6%

+2.1% +2.2% +0.5%

Started selling mid caps &

cyclicals in Spring Shift to Large

Caps with good visibility

Strong rally of beta stocks (high leverage,

cyclicals & small caps)

Underperformance of quality stocks (OW)

CGG Veritas, PGS, Arcelor, GEA Group

ArcelorMittal, CGG Veritas,

PGS, GEA Group, Inbev

ABN Amro, Norske Skog

  Fortis, Alcatel, GEA Group

  GDF Suez, Fortis, Air Liquide, Dassault Syst.

VW, Telefonica, Daimler

GDF Suez, Santander, BBVA, Anheuser-Busch Inbev, France Tel

  VW, Technip, BNP Paribas, Generali,

LVMH

+4.3%

  Safran, Clariant, GEA Group, UW BBVA, Daimler   Nat Bank of

Greece, no Volkswagen, no

BMW, Hellenic Tel, Thales

-1.4%

Source: Amundi, data as of 31/03/2011 Gross performance in EUR Past performance does not prejudge future results, nor is it a guarantee of future returns.

  Clariant, Nokia,

Safran, CFAO, Renault, Daimler   No Anheuser Busch Inbev, no

RWE, Hellenic Tel, Saint Gobain

Cyclical stocks (consumer)

outperformed. Financials penalised by regulatory

uncertainties & sovereign risks exposure

Amundi Canada Forum – October 2011 - page 28

Page 29: Forum Canada Stock Picking Europe Oct2011

AUM: € 287 m

Reference index: MSCI Europe net dividends reinvested

Excess return: 2.4% annualised over 5 years

Olivier Baduel

French-domiciled fund “Select Europe”: performance and breakdown

Performance

Source: Amundi, Portfolio data as of 29/04/2011 Past performance does not prejudge future results, nor is it a guarantee of future returns

Top 5 Over/Underweight Sector allocation (in relative terms) Amundi Select Europe Portfolio

weightBenchmark

weightOver-

weightSAINT GOBAIN 3.1% 0.3% 2.7%KLOECKNER & CO 2.5% 0.0% 2.5%RICHEMONT 2.9% 0.4% 2.5%SAP 2.9% 0.7% 2.2%DAIMLER 2.9% 0.9% 2.0%

Amundi Select Europe Portfolioweight

Benchmarkweight

Under-weight

NESTLE 1.0% 2.7% -1.7%SIEMENS 0.0% 1.5% -1.5%TELEFONICA 0.0% 1.4% -1.4%BANCO SANTANDER 0.0% 1.3% -1.3%BHP BILLITON 0.0% 1.2% -1.2%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

Energy

Materia

ls

Indus

trials IT

Cons. D

iscr.

Cons. S

taples

Health C

are

Teleco

m Serv.

Utilitie

s

Financia

ls

29/04/2011Portfolio Index Spread

YTD 4.1 4.0 0.11 year 14.9 12.0 2.8 1.2

3 years 6.1 -4.5 10.6 0.85 years 8.9 -3.5 12.4 0.6

Since 31/03/2006 9.9 -2.5 12.4 0.58

Cumulative gross performance Information ratio

Amundi Canada Forum – October 2011 - page 29

Page 30: Forum Canada Stock Picking Europe Oct2011

12.0

25.4

-34.8

6.7 8.0

31.6

-43.7

2.7

10.8

0.9

11.1

0.6

2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 (April -Dec.)

Portfolio Index  Vivendi, Nestle, RBS, GDF Suez, France Tel VW, Unicredito, AstraZeneca, Telefonica

Performance – French-domiciled fund “Select Europe” Started selling financials in

Summer

-6.2%

+8.8%

+4.0%

-2.8%

Started selling mid caps & cyclicals in

Spring Shift to Large Caps with good visibility

Large Caps with good visibility 5.5% cash

Strong UW on Financials

Strong rally of beta stocks (high leverage, cyclicals & small caps) Underperformance of quality stocks (OW)

4.6% cash

Experian, Sanofi-Aventis, Corus,

Commerzbank, Dassault   ArcelorMittal, Bca Pop di Milano, InBev, Michelin

Siemens, E.ON, Vodafone, GEA Group,

Salzgitter Norske Skog, STM, Bca

Pop di Milano, Ericsson

GDF Suez, Santander, France

Tel, Vivendi, Danone   BNP Paribas, PPR,

VW, Barclays, Axa

  Safran,

Richemont, no Banco Santander,

GEA Group, Petroleum GeoServ   Nat. Bank of Greece, Thales, Carrefour, Nokia, Hellenic Telecom

+0.9%

+0.3%

  Bulgari, Saint-

Gobain, Kloeckner, SAP, BNP Paribas,

Capgemini   Nokia, Clariant, Richemont, CFAO

Source: Amundi, Data as of 31/03/2011 Gross performance in EUR Past performance does not prejudge future results, nor is it a guarantee of future returns.

Non-Euro & cyclical stocks outperformed

Euro & sectors exposed to sovereign risks (banks)

& utilities

Amundi Canada Forum – October 2011 - page 30

Page 31: Forum Canada Stock Picking Europe Oct2011

AUM: € 368m

Reference index: SBF 120 net dividends reinvested

Excess return: 3% annualised over 5 years

Performance

French-domiciled fund “Select France”: performance and breakdown

Source: Amundi, Portfolio data as of 29/04/2011 Past performance does not prejudge future results, nor is it a guarantee of future returns

Olivier Baduel

Top 5 Over/Underweight Sector allocation (in relative terms) Amundi Select France Portfolio

weightBenchmark

weightOver-

weightVIVENDI 5.3% 2.8% 2.5%THALES 2.7% 0.3% 2.4%SAINT GOBAIN 4.3% 2.0% 2.4%SAFRAN 2.7% 0.5% 2.2%PPR 2.6% 1.0% 1.6%

Amundi Select France Portfolioweight

Benchmarkweight

Under-weight

ARCELORMITTAL 0.0% 2.4% -2.4%VINCI 0.0% 2.3% -2.3%FRANCE TELECOM 1.3% 3.3% -2.0%UNIBAIL RODAMCO 0.0% 1.6% -1.6%TOTAL 8.8% 10.3% -1.5%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

Energy

Materia

ls

Indus

trials IT

Cons. D

iscr.

Cons. S

taples

Health C

are

Teleco

m Serv.

Utilitie

s

Financia

ls

29/04/2011Portfolio Index Spread

YTD 7.9 8.0 0.01 year 14.6 12.5 2.1 1.1

3 years 7.5 -5.5 13.0 1.15 years 11.3 -3.9 15.3 0.9

Since 30/06/2004 66.4 40.8 25.6 0.8

Cumulative gross performance Information ratio

Amundi Canada Forum – October 2011 - page 31

Page 32: Forum Canada Stock Picking Europe Oct2011

5.5

-32.7

4.3

25.4 26.9

2.82.9

28.9

-40.9

3.0

22.3

28.3

2.9

27.1

3.9 4.6

2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 (Juillet -Déc.)

Portefeuille Indice

Performance – French-domiciled fund “Select France”

+2.6%

+8.2%

+1.3% +3.1% -1.4% -0.1%

  Snecma, France Tel, Michelin

  Vallourec, Sodexo, Capgemini

  CGG Veritas, Vallourec, Suez,

Alstom

  No Alcatel-

Lucent, UW Crédit Agricole, Suez   Norske Skog

  GDF Suez, Sodexo, UW Dexia

UW LVMH, GDF Suez, UW Société Générale, Vivendi,

France Tel   Technip, BNP

Paribas, PPR, Axa

Source: Amundi, 31/03/2011 Gross performance in EUR Past performance does not prejudge future results, nor is it a guarantee of future returns.

-1.8%

  Capgemini,

UW Dexia   Sanofi,

ArcelorMittal

  Safran, Cie Gale

Geophysique, Dassault Syst,

Technip, UW Alstom   Thales, EDF,

Ipsen, PagesJaunes

-0.7%

  no Alcatel Lucent,

Safran, UW Axa, CFAO

  UW ArcelorMittal, no Pernod Ricard, Saint-Gobain, Cap

Gemini

Cyclicals outperform, pressure on Financials

(risk premium peripheral countries and regulation)

Focus on mid caps & cyclicals with leverage

Started selling Financials (summer)

Started selling mid caps & cyclicals in

the Spring Shift to Large Caps with good visibility

Large Caps with good visibility 5.8% cash

Strong underweight on Financials

« Rally » of high beta stocks (strong

leverage, cyclicals and small caps)

Under-performance of quality stocks (OW)

Amundi Canada Forum – October 2011 - page 32

Page 33: Forum Canada Stock Picking Europe Oct2011

Amundi Funds Select Euro1: Key information

* Only for distributors authorized by Board of Directors ** Or equivalent in another currency *** Or, as the case may be, an earlier cut off time applicable by the relevant distributor 1 To be named “Amundi Funds Equity Euro Select” from June 24th, 2011.

A (All Investors) I (Institutional investors) S (Distributors)

Management company Amundi Luxembourg S.A.

Investment manager Amundi

Custodian CACEIS Bank Luxembourg

Reference currency EUR

Minimum recommended period 5 years

AUM as of 31/03/2011 € 22 million

ISIN Code Accumulation: LU0401973978

Distribution: LU0401974190

Accumulation: LU0401973549

Distribution: LU0401973622

Accumulation: LU0401974273

BLOOMBERG Ticker Accumulation: CAAESCA LX

Distribution: CAAESDD LX

Accumulation: CAAESIA LX

Distribution: CAAESID LX

Accumulation: CAAESSS LX

Minimum initial subscription 1 thousandth of share USD 500 000** 1 thousandth of share

Share categories Accumulation / Distribution Accumulation

Frequency of NAV calculation Daily

Cut off for dealing times Luxembourg Dealing days before 2pm***

Maximum initial charge 4.50% 2.50% 3.00%

Maximum annual management fee 1.30% 0.65% 1.70%

Annual administration fee 0.35% 0.25% 0.35%

Performance fee 20% max of outperformance

Maximum conversion fee 1.00%

Maximum redemption fee None

Amundi Canada Forum – October 2011 - page 33

Page 34: Forum Canada Stock Picking Europe Oct2011

Amundi Funds Select Europe1: Key information A (All Investors) I (Institutional investors) S (Distributors)

Management company Amundi Luxembourg S.A.

Investment manager Amundi

Custodian CACEIS Bank Luxembourg

Reference currency EUR

Minimum recommended period 5 years

AUM as of 31/03/2011 € 29 million

ISIN Code Accumulation: LU0401974943

Distribution: LU0401975163

Accumulation: LU0401974356

Distribution: LU0401974513

Accumulation: LU0401975320

BLOOMBERG Ticker Accumulation: CASEECA LX

Distribution: CASEECD LX

Accumulation: CASEEUI LX

Distribution: CASEEID LX

Accumulation: CASEEUS LX

Minimum initial subscription 1 thousandth of share USD 500 000** 1 thousandth of share

Share categories Accumulation / Distribution Accumulation

Frequency of NAV calculation Daily

Cut off for dealing times Luxembourg Dealing days before 2pm***

Maximum initial charge 4.50% 2.50% 3.00%

Maximum annual management fee

1.30% 0.65% 1.70%

Annual administration fee 0.35% 0.25% 0.35%

Performance fee 20% max of outperformance

Maximum conversion fee 1.00%

Maximum redemption fee None

* Only for distributors authorized by Board of Directors ** Or equivalent in another currency *** Or, as the case may be, an earlier cut off time applicable by the relevant distributor 1 To be named “Amundi Funds Equity Europe Select” from June 24th, 2011.

Amundi Canada Forum – October 2011 - page 34

Page 35: Forum Canada Stock Picking Europe Oct2011

Disclaimer

This material is solely for the attention of institutional, professional, qualified or sophisticated investors and distributors. It is not to be distributed to the general public, private customers or retail investors in any jurisdiction whatsoever nor to “US Persons”. Moreover, any such investor should be, in the European Union, a “Professional” investor as defined in Directive 2004/39/EC dated 21 April 2004 on markets in financial instruments (“MIFID”) or as the case may be in each local regulations and, as far as the offering in Switzerland is concerned, a “Qualified Investor” within the meaning of the provisions of the Swiss Collective Investment Schemes Ordinance of 23 June 2006 (CISA), the Swiss Collective Investment Schemes Ordinance of 22 November 2006 (CISO) and the FINMA’s Circular 08/8 on Public Offering within the meaning of the legislation on Collective Investment Schemes of 20 November 2008. In no event may this material be distributed in the European Union to non “Professional” investors as defined in the MIFID or in each local regulation, or in Switzerland to investors who do not comply with the definition of “qualified investors” as defined in the applicable legislation and regulation.

Amundi, French joint stock company (“Société Anonyme”) with a registered capital of € 578 002 350 and approved by the French Securities Regulator (Autorité des Marchés Financiers-AMF) under number GP 04000036 as a portfolio management company 90 boulevard Pasteur -75015 Paris- France 437 574 452 RCS Paris. www.amundi.com

This document contains information about Amundi Funds Select Euro and Amundi Funds Select Europe (the “Sub-Funds”), sub-funds of Amundi Funds (the “SICAV”), an undertaking for collective investment in transferable securities existing under Part I of the Luxembourg law of 20 December 2002, organised as a société d’investissement à capital variable and registered with the Luxembourg Trade and Companies Register under number B68.806. The SICAV has its registered office at 5, allée Scheffer, l-2520 Luxembourg.

Amundi Funds has been authorised for public sale by the Commission de Surveillance du Secteur Financier in Luxembourg.

Not all sub-funds of the SICAV (the "Sub-Funds") will necessarily be registered or authorized for sale in all jurisdictions or be available to all investors.

Subscriptions in the Sub-Funds will only be accepted on the basis of the SICAV’s latest complete and simplified prospectuses, its latest annual and semi-annual reports and its articles of incorporation that may be obtained, free of charge, at the registered office of the SICAV or respectively at that of the representative agent duly authorized and agreed by the relevant authority of each relevant concerned jurisdiction.

Consideration should be given to whether the risks attached to an investment in the Sub-Funds are suitable for prospective investors who should ensure that they fully understand the contents of this document. A professional advisor should be consulted to determine whether an investment in the Sub-Funds is suitable.

The value of, and any income from, an investment in the Sub-Funds can decrease as well as increase. The Sub- Funds have no guaranteed performance. Further, past performance is not a guarantee or a reliable indicator for current or future performance and returns. The performance data do not take account of the commissions and costs incurred on the issue and redemption of units.

This document does not constitute an offer to buy nor a solicitation to sell in any country where it might be considered as unlawful, nor does it constitute public advertising or investment advice.

The information contained in this document is deemed accurate as at May 2011.

Amundi Canada Forum – October 2011 - page 35

Page 36: Forum Canada Stock Picking Europe Oct2011

Canadian Disclaimer Amundi Canada Inc., 2000 McGill College Avenue, Suite 1920 Montreal QC H3A 3H3 (“Amundi Canada”), is a corporation incorporated under the laws of Canada and a wholly-owned subsidiary of Amundi, a corporation incorporated under French law. Both are indirectly held jointly by Crédit Agricole (to the level of 75 %) and Société Générale (to the level of 25 %), two banks incorporated under French law which have agreed to combine their asset management activities under the name of “Amundi”. Asset management services in respect of the above-mentioned client provided for pursuant to the portfolio management agreement entered into between Amundi Canada and such client has been delegated by Amundi Canada to Amundi, pursuant to sub-advisor agreements entered with Amundi. Amundi Canada is registered as portfolio manager in the provinces of Quebec, Nova Scotia, Ontario, Alberta and British Columbia. Amundi Canada is also registered as a limited market dealer in the same provinces. The information provided herein is confidential and is addressed exclusively to Canadian institutional investors and to any other exempt category within the meaning of the applicable laws. This information is not meant to be distributed or used by any person or entity in a country or jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to legal or regulatory requirements, or would obligate Amundi Canada or its affiliates (together, the “Crédit Agricole group”) to any registration requirements in such country or jurisdiction. Moreover, unless otherwise specified, the date provided herein is for informational purposes only and it does not constitute an offer to buy, a solicitation to sell, an investment advice regarding a security, an offer or solicitation by Amundi Canada or by any member of the Crédit Agricole group to provide an advice or a financial, legal, fiscal or investment service or to buy or sell financial instruments. Neither Amundi Canada nor any member of the Crédit Agricole group can warrant or declare, implicitly or explicitly, that the information provided herein is exact, complete or current.

Amundi Canada Inc. 2000 McGill College Avenue Suite 1920 Montreal (Quebec) H3A 3H3 Tel.: +1 514 982-2900 Fax: +1 514 982-2915

www.amundi.com

Amundi Canada Forum – October 2011 - page 36