FORMER (?) SOVIET UNION

IMPORTANCE OF GEOGRAPHY

Best Case Scenario

IMPORTANCE OF GEOGRAPHY

•Size

•Type of Landmass

•Water

Worst Case Scenario

•Transportation

•Borders

•“Enemies”

Russia’s Core

RUSSIA:It all comes down to

SECURITY

Internal/Domestic

Internal Dissent & Revolt

Infiltration & Color Revolutions

Islam, militancy & Secession

External: Creating Buffers

External: Expanding Buffers

The Russian Cycle:The Dark Rider Theory

Catastrophe

White Rider

Dark Rider

( ? )

Undermining it all….Demographics

•DemographicDemographicss

•Birth/Birth/Death ratesDeath rates•EthnicityEthnicity•DistributioDistributionn•EmigrationEmigration•ImmigratioImmigration n •DrugsDrugs•Disease Disease (TB/HIV)(TB/HIV)

DEMOGRAPHICS

Populations• MUSLIMS

– 1980 – 10% of the population (in Russia proper)– 2007 – 12.5% of the population in Russia– 2020 - ~20% of the population in Russia

• HIV/AIDS– Government reports 400,000 living with HIV– UNAIDS estimates it is over 900,000

• TB– Russia is ranked 12th in the world for TB cases– TB cases have tripled since the fall of the Soviet Union

Doesn’t mean Russia won’t go out swinging…

RUSSIA’S Six Pillars of Power

•Political

•Social

•Natural Resources

•Security Services

•Military

•Geographic

POLITICAL & SOCIAL CONSOLIDATION

OUT:

The Family

The Oligarchs

IN:

Nashi

Putin Worship

United Russia“Democratic”political parties

Putin, Inc.

ECONOMIC CONSOLIDATION

Economic Security over Economic Sense• Western System – About profitability

– Money is an end– Crush inefficiency– Protect the system

• Eastern System – About social stability– Crush unemployment– Us money as a political resource for non-financial ends– Minimize disruption

• Russian System – Think the Godfather– All about control, which equals security– Screw the people– Screw efficiency– Criminal mentality – Economics = Politics

Energy

• Russia holds the world’s largest natural gas reserves, second largest coal reserves & eighth largest oil reserves.

• Russia is the largest natural gas and second largest oil producer

• And its energy network is the largest (and most complicated) in the world…

Russian Pipeline Systems

Rise of Gazprom

Return of the Security State

MILITARY

GEOGRAPHIC:Consolidating the Buffers

EURO-FSU:Baltics, Belarus, Moldova &

UkraineThe Baltic Problems…

What the hell is Moldova?

Belarus

Ugh…Ukraine

Caucasus

Georgia

Armenia and Azerbaijan

THE STANS

Competition for the Stans

• Russia• China• West• Iran• Turkey

What’s so cool about the Stans?

Anything else cool?

Wrap-Up…

• Russia’s geopolitical imperative is: security– Internally through consolidation and terror– Externally through expansion and creation of a

buffer• Which ripples and dominates the rest of the former

Soviet States and the rest of the world.

• This is evident through each of Russia’s cycles

• Russia has a myriad of tools to achieve this• This is most likely Russia’s last run before a

new cycle begins….

QUESTIONS???(dare you to ask them…)