forest sector dynamics: lessons for marine resources?
TRANSCRIPT
Forest sector dynamics:lessons for marine resources?
Two related, but distinct, issues
• Deforestation: conversion of forests to other land uses
• Depletion: harvesting more timber than grows
Global deforestation
• Between 1990 and 2000, 94 million hectares of forest were lost– About two Californias
Deforestation is not occurring everywhere
Region
Annual change in forest cover
Countries / Countries that
lost forest cover Africa -0.78% 56 / 41
S. America -0.41% 14 / 10
Oceania -0.18% 20 / 6
N. & C. America -0.10% 34 / 13
Asia -0.07% 47 / 15
Europe +0.08% 38 / 3
• Forest cover increased during 1990-2000 in the world’s most populous countries, China and India– And also in the U.S.
Deforestation rate vs. Income
-6.0
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 50,000
Per capita GDP (US$, 1997)
De
fore
sta
tio
n r
ate
(%
/ye
ar,
19
90
-20
00
)
Why is the deforestation rate lower in richer countries?
Why is the deforestation rate lower in richer countries?
• Because they are less dependent on agriculture, which uses land
Why is the deforestation rate lower in richer countries?
• Because they are less dependent on agriculture, which uses land
• Countries’ economies undergo structural changes as they grow– The share of agriculture decreases, while the shares of
manufacturing and services increase
– People leave rural areas and move to cities
– Agriculture intensifies
– Deforestation slows down and may reverse
Why is the deforestation rate lower in richer countries?
• Because they are less dependent on agriculture, which uses land
• Countries’ economies undergo structural changes as they grow– The share of agriculture decreases, while the shares of
manufacturing and services increase– People leave rural areas and move to cities– Agriculture intensifies– Deforestation slows down and may reverse
• Forest conservation: byproduct of development
The world is not running out of wood
• Industrialized countries harvest less timber than they grow– Harvest from all sources is 79% of growth in
North America, and 59% in Europe
• Harvest exceeds growth mainly in low-income countries
Myth:Consumption in North
is driving depletion in South
Myth:Consumption in North
is driving depletion in South
• Most of wood harvested in developing countries is fuelwood, not industrial roundwood (only 21%)
Myth:Consumption in North
is driving depletion in South
• Most of wood harvested in developing countries is fuelwood, not industrial roundwood (only 21%)
• Most of industrial roundwood is consumed within countries where it is harvested, not exported (only 20%), directly or indirectly
Myth:Consumption in North
is driving depletion in South
• Most of wood harvested in developing countries is fuelwood, not industrial roundwood (only 21%)
• Most of industrial roundwood is consumed within countries where it is harvested, not exported (only 20%), directly or indirectly
• Developing countries import more industrial roundwood and wood products than they export (by 18%)
Property rights and scarcity
Property rights and scarcity
• Big institutional difference between forests in North and South: property rights
Property rights and scarcity
• Big institutional difference between forests in North and South: property rights
• 20th Century: as timber stocks in old-growth forests depleted, price of timber rose
• In response:1. More investment in management of second-growth forests
2. More investment in plantations
• Today, < 20% of timber (globally) comes from old-growth forests
Property rights and scarcity
• Big institutional difference between forests in North and South: property rights
• 20th Century: as timber stocks in old-growth forests depleted, price of timber rose
• In response:1. More investment in management of second-growth forests
2. More investment in plantations
• Today, < 20% of timber (globally) comes from old-growth forests
• Cheap wood from plantations makes logging of natural forests less profitable
– Unintentional conservation
