foresight thinking as part of an innovator's education
TRANSCRIPT
Foresight thinking as a part of
an innovator’s
education
Elena Diryugina,
program director,
Open University Skolkovo,
Moscow, Russia
San Francisco, 2015
Innovation system in Russia
4 approaches to foresight education
4 cases of educational projects in
foresight
Foresight community in Russia: usage
instructions
For whom:
Development institutions,
Innovation infrastructure,
Innovators,
Educators
2014: Russian venture market – the 3 place in Europe
SKOLKOVO FOUNDATION (2010, 1000+ projects)
FASIE (1994, 8000 projects)
VEB innovation
(2011, 18 projects)
RVC (2006)
FIEP (2011, 360 projects)
RUSNANO
(2007, 100+ projects)
INNOVATION DEVELOPMENT INSTITUTIONS
R&DCOMMERCI
ALIZATIONSCALE
TECH.
TRANSFERINCUBATION
Open University Skolkovo
(OpUS) is a Skolkovo
Foundation program designed
to attract talented young
people skilled in science and
technology and displaying
entrepreneurial talent, recruit
them and allow them to
develop within the innovation
ecosystem in Russia.
INNOVATION
DEVELOPMENT
INSTITUTIONS
INNOVATION
CENTERS
IN UNIVERSITIES
GLOBAL
CORPORATIONS
EDUCATIONAL
COMPANIES,
BUSINESS
INCUBATORS
FORESIGHT THINKING?
Foresight is not only
a research technology,
but also
a management technology
Startups
Research groups
Financial aid
Federal programs, Development Institutions
STRATEGY 2020: Sci&Tech Priorities
Government
Analytical Foresight
Economic Development Ministry (2006), Higher School of Economics (2011)
Financial aid to startups
Federal programs, Development Institutions
Strategy and SciTech Priorities
Government
National Technological Initiative
Agency of strategic initiatives, Russian venture company
Foresight & Initiatives
Research groups, innovators, businessmen, investors
The Future is coming.
It will be different from the present.
There are several scenarios of the futures.
The Actors determine, which scenario is the basic one.
TO ACCEPT THE FORECAST
.
. 1. The ability to use the
techniques of mid- and long-
term foresight and to choose
the basic scenario.
2. The ability to generate the
projects and initiatives
enhancing the chosen scenario.
TO FORM THE FORECAST
1. Understanding of short-
term and long-term trends
and the basic scenario.
2. The ability to evaluate the
perspectives of a research/
engineering / technological
project.
POTENTIAL INNOVATORS
(HAVE NO PROJECT YET)
METHOD
From general to particular
TIME RESOURCES
Available
AMOUNT OF POTENTIAL APPLICANTS
Many ( > 100 000)
MOTIVATION
A search for perspective idea, curiosity
RISKS
To become a futurist
BEGINNERS
[HAVE PROJECTS ALREADY)
METHOD
From particular to general, then back
TIME RESOURCES
Minimum
AMOUNT OF POTENTIAL APPLICANTS
Not many ( < 10 000)
MOTIVATION
Benefits to the projects
RISKS
Reduction of foresight to negotiations
PROACTIVE / ELITE
PASSIVE, RECEIVING / MASS
LONG-TERM
STRATEGY
SHORT-TERM
STRATEGY
Education
via researchEducation via
decision-making
situation
Education via
transmission
Education via
project ideas
generation /
discussion
WHOM TO EDUCATE?
Everyone \ Nobody \
Someone
Egalitarian \ Elite
WHAT TO STUDY?
Everything \ Nothing \ Something
General \ special
HOW LONG?
Determined periods of time \
Life-long learning \
Short irregular periods of time
HOW? (INSTRUMENTS)
to READ, to LISTEN,
to DISCUSS, to PLAY, to WRITE,
to INVESTIGATE, to CREATE,
WHO EDUCATES?
PROACTIVE / ELITE
PASSIVE, RECEIVING / MASS
LONG-TERM
STRATEGY
SHORT-TERM
STRATEGY
Educational
Course in
Foresight
The Think Foresight course is aimed to give students not
only advanced methods of foresight practice but also a wide
range of knowledge – an ontological basis – that is the
foundation of efficient thinking about the future.
The audience:
Future technological and business elite -
several hundreds of the best students and PhD students
from the best technological universities
The duration: a year
Advanced practices of thinking, understanding and
self-reflection.
Techniques of collective creative work.
Psychological and thinking methods necessary for
thinking about future.
Practical skills in setting and solving tasks and
problems of future designing in various scales:
world, macro-region, country, region, and even
personality.
Sufficient knowledge in academic areas necessary
for theoretic and practical thinking about future
a model of historical phases;
a model of sociosystem;
a model of knowledge
focuses;
strategy analytics;
a concept «Inevitable
future»-
scenario-building methodology.
The Future Designing Research Group is an
independent non-profit public think-tank, located in
St.Petersburg.
Focus on long-term forecasts and foresights for
state and private bodies.
Persons: Elena and Sergei Pereslegin,
Ekaterina and Nikolay Yutanov, and others
Main organizer: Open University Skolkovo
• Lectures,
• practical skills
in scenarios building,
• brainstorming with
Knowledge Reactor
method,
• social role-play
modelling games,
• scenario engineering
analytics.
PROACTIVE / ELITE
PASSIVE, RECEIVING / MASS
LONG-TERM
STRATEGY
SHORT-TERM
STRATEGY
High-level
Road map
development
2015:
Road Maps development:
how to find perspective
markets and create
successful technological
companies – national champions
till 2035 .
Annual, since 2012
The audience:
600+ participants, after a strict selection process:
entrepreneurs, venture investors, researchers,
educators, non-governmental organizations, the
leaders of enterprises of the real sector of the
economy, representatives of government.
Main organizers: Agency for strategic initiatives,
Russian Venture Company
The duration: 5 days
Rapid foresight methodology –
how to communicate about the future.
Foresight fleet features:
smart active people, limited time, closed space,
even without the Internet
PROACTIVE / ELITE
PASSIVE, RECEIVING / MASS
LONG-TERM
STRATEGY
SHORT-TERM
STRATEGY
Thematic
Foresight-games
/ project
sessions
Participants become ‘a working body’ of the
foresight-session.
Who plays a role of a teacher?
- facilitators, gamemasters,
session analysts
How to become a facilitator:
Foresight School (ASI)
Gamemasters School (OpUS)
others.
The main Formats:
• brainstorming with
Knowledge
Reactor method,
• social role-play
modelling games,
• Rapid Foresight
The duration: short (1-7 days) irregular sessions
PROACTIVE / ELITE
PASSIVE, RECEIVING / MASS
LONG-TERM
STRATEGY
SHORT-TERM
STRATEGY
Media
No future without science fiction and futurology!
To get innovation economy, breakthrough discoveries, global competitiveness, as well as the future itself, we need to have youth with great imagination resources.
Science Fiction inspires Futurology, Futurology enhances Sci-Fi, and all together they take us to the future.
33
«IF
» Futurology and Sci-Fi, future markets analysis
Partnership with development institutions
Partnership with think-tanks
The order to writers in the context of critical issues of development
aud
ien
ce Professionals in
the field of innovations
Futurists
Sci-Fi fandom
Youth
Multi-Format platform for communication about the
Future
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Futurology
Practice
Sci-Fi
Paper journal
Interactive e-journal
Apps for cellphones
Network community
Sponsored by RVC
www.esli.ruu
1Open University Skolkovo
Sk.ru/opus
2The Future Designing Research Group
Future-designing.org
3Agency for strategic initiatives
asi.ru
4
Higher School of Economics, International
research and educational Foresight centre
issek.hse.ru/en/dep_foresight
5The Fund "Center for strategic research"
csr.ru
Elena Diryugina,
Program director
Open University Skolkovo
facebook.com/elena.diryugina
Thank you for your attention! !