mlw1 – systems thinking for foresight 1 ozcan saritassept 24, 2009 bucharest foresight &...
TRANSCRIPT
MLW1 – Systems Thinking for Foresight
1Ozcan Saritas Sept 24, 2009
Bucharest
Foresight & Higher Education
- Two cases -
Dr. Ozcan Saritas*[email protected]
*with thanks to Prof. Luke Georghiou who has kindly provided some of these slides
MLW1 – Systems Thinking for Foresight
2Ozcan Saritas Sept 24, 2009
Bucharest
Change and Uncertainty: The context of HE
Peak oil / Climate change / Urbanisation / Terrorism
Gene therapy / stem cell injections / artificial intelligence
How should schools, universities and educational system deal with these changes?
Curricula / Roles of teachers & students
What are the alternative futures for education? – as a subset of broader transformation of society
What future for Universities?
MLW1 – Systems Thinking for Foresight
3Ozcan Saritas Sept 24, 2009
Bucharest
1. The “new” University of Manchester Victoria University of Manchester and
UMIST merged in October 2004 to form UK’s largest university
The 2015 Vision of the new institution – overall objective set out in Vision Document Manchester 2015
To make the University of Manchester, already an internationally distinguished centre of research, innovation learning and scholarly inquiry, one of the leading universities in the world by 2015.
Aiming for distinctive identity that equalled but did not emulate the UK’s “Golden Triangle” or the US Ivy League
MLW1 – Systems Thinking for Foresight
4Ozcan Saritas Sept 24, 2009
Bucharest
Strategy Encapsulated in 9 Goals1 High International Standing To establish the University of Manchester as a world renowned centre of
scholarship and research by 2015. To match the leading universities in the world in attracting and retaining teachers, researchers and 'critical mass' research teams of the highest quality. To be a higher education brand synonymous with the finest international standards of academic excellence with pioneering, influential and exciting research and scholarship.
2 World Class Research To establish the University of Manchester by 2015 among the 25 strongest
research universities in the world on commonly accepted criteria of research excellence and performance.
3 Exemplary Knowledge and Technology Transfer4 Excellent Teaching and Learning5 Widening Participation6 Empowering Collegiality7 Efficient, Effective Management9 More Effective Community Service
MLW1 – Systems Thinking for Foresight
5Ozcan Saritas Sept 24, 2009
Bucharest
2015 Agenda – Key Goals and Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Goal 1: High International Standing
Present KPIs Clear evidence of improvement in standing as measured by
reputable international higher education rankings Appointing a number of ‘iconic’ scholars: 5 Nobel Laureates on
staff by 2015, 3 by 2008
MLW1 – Systems Thinking for Foresight
6Ozcan Saritas Sept 24, 2009
Bucharest
2015 AgendaGoal 2: World Class Research
Initial KPIs 50% staff international quality 2008; 70% 2015 Doubling real research income by 2015 Doubling postgraduate research students and postdocs by
2015
Present modified KPIs Annual increase in share of high impact research publications Doubling real external grant income by 2015 Treble research expenditure by 2015 Double no of PGR students successfully completing and no of
postdocs by 2015
MLW1 – Systems Thinking for Foresight
7Ozcan Saritas Sept 24, 2009
Bucharest
Progress to Date –Achievements
Two Nobel laureates signed (one paid for by large donation) plus another iconic appointment, several more in pipeline
Research income growth ahead of schedule TARE rose 45% in 3 years
Most popular in terms of student applications – growing when others falling
External recognition – Times Higher and Sunday Times University of the Year in successive years
Biggest mover up the rankings but not enough
MLW1 – Systems Thinking for Foresight
8Ozcan Saritas Sept 24, 2009
Bucharest
Tracking the ARWU -Academic Ranking of World Universities
World ranking
European ranking
UK ranking
2008 40 6 5
2007 48 9 5
2006 50 9 5
2005 53 12 6
2004* 78* 24* 9*
* VUM only
MLW1 – Systems Thinking for Foresight
9Ozcan Saritas Sept 24, 2009
Bucharest
Challenges Financial
– Large operating deficit in 2006 (£30m on £601m turnover) had to be eliminated – now back in surplus
– Driven by larger than expected national salary settlements, growth of staff numbers by 2,800, investment ahead of RAE and structural deficit through duplication
– Early retirement and voluntary severance scheme reduced staff (mainly admin) by 630
– Highlights marginal nature of academic finances and vulnerability to shocks meaning must maintain drive for productivity gain and growth of high revenue areas
Balancing teaching and research– Initial push for research gave students impression of neglect – University now launched challenging initiative to re-personalise
undergraduate education while gaining efficiency through e-learning and Graduate Teaching Assistants
– Promotion tracks available for teaching and knowledge transfer specialist as well as conventional careers
Trade off between indicators has to be managed
MLW1 – Systems Thinking for Foresight
10Ozcan Saritas Sept 24, 2009
Bucharest
2. UK Scenarios Project Dept. of Innov., Univ.s & Skills was formed in 2007 and merged
in to Dept. of Business Innov. & Skills in 2009 Ministers commissioned HSC to run scenarios process to
– Improve robustness of existing policies by acting as a stimulating challenge– Assist in the development of new policies and corporate plans
10 dimensions of uncertainty identified in interaction with expert and stakeholder groups – external and internal– Values and beliefs– Demographics and migration– Economic integration governance and models (“uncertainty whether growth
is to remain steady or whether there will be volatility. Increasing economic interdependence, especially in financial markets, poses regulatory and policy challenges ”)
– Research and innovation; Education and skills Scenario axes
– Global political and economic context– Values in the UK
MLW1 – Systems Thinking for Foresight
11Ozcan Saritas Sept 24, 2009
Bucharest
Figure Scenario structure
MLW1 – Systems Thinking for Foresight
12Ozcan Saritas Sept 24, 2009
Bucharest
I ndividualSocial Values
Collective
Glo
bal C
onte
xt
Closed
Open
I nnovation Corporation- led, strong
IPR, R&D moves to China and India
Universities Global and
commercialised, research and
teaching disconnect
Skills Buying talent internationally,
inequalities in UK
Research market-led, mobile
1. Perpetual Motion
I nnovation State-led, weak IPR, open
innovation
Universities Global collaborative,
standardised teaching
Skills Buying talent internationally, up-
skilling the UK
Research Challenge- led, ‘blue skies’
2. Shaken Open
I nnovation Bottom-up, self-sufficiency,
weak IPR
Universities Focus on community and
nation, government-directed
Skills National re-skilling programme,
basic skills return
Research State-led, national challenges
3. Protective Collective I nnovation SME-led, self-sufficiency,
protecting knowledge
Universities A UK market, autonomy,
private HEIs, demand-led, competition
Skills Major skills gap, strong need for
re-skilling, demand-led
Research Private sector-led, immobile
4. Self-Service
MLW1 – Systems Thinking for Foresight
13Ozcan Saritas Sept 24, 2009
Bucharest
SpecialisationDifferentiation
Competition
Globalisation
New entrants
International mobility
Studentconsumerism
Open innovation
New research technologies
e-learning
Demographicchange
WideningparticipationCooperation
Business
Internationalgovernance
Tuition fees
Insufficientresources
Commercialisation
Drivers of Change for HE
STUDENTNUMBERS
RESEARCH
BUSINESS
INTERNATIONALISATION
Application in University of Manchester
MLW1 – Systems Thinking for Foresight
14Ozcan Saritas Sept 24, 2009
Bucharest
University of Manchester Scenarios Our attempt to translate the implications for this institution
Again seeking plausible stories not predictions
Our previous foresight had looked at intellectual and structural trends with the aim of identifying emerging priority themes
But sense of impending crisis means need to think beyond the business plan…
Most recent round articulated UK scenarios for our own environment
MLW1 – Systems Thinking for Foresight
15Ozcan Saritas Sept 24, 2009
Bucharest
Global Player
Perpetual Motion
– Global PlayerResearch – mainly private sector and much from overseas and for arts and humanities from donationsTeaching – consumer focus delivered internationally via blended learningKnowledge transfer – one third of income from CPD
MLW1 – Systems Thinking for Foresight
16Ozcan Saritas Sept 24, 2009
Bucharest
Global Alliances
Shaken Open
– Global AlliancesResearch – Large scale challenge projects with investigator driven funding only for eliteTeaching – Global alliances with franchising; Student idealism demands engagement with social issuesKnowledge transfer – weak IPR driving CPD market for updated skills
MLW1 – Systems Thinking for Foresight
17Ozcan Saritas Sept 24, 2009
Bucharest
Manchester as a National and Regional Institution
Protective Collective
Research – Dual support surviving at low level; strong national focus in research agendaTeaching – Loss of overseas markets, national skills agenda dominates; widening participationKnowledge transfer – focus on national and regional markets
MLW1 – Systems Thinking for Foresight
18Ozcan Saritas Sept 24, 2009
Bucharest
Manchester Downsized and Downmarket
Self-Service
Research – Low level but some self-support through earnings from entrepreneurshipTeaching – Substantial downsizing in home and overseas markets; Part-time and blended learning dominateKnowledge transfer – CPD market mainly for individual upskilling
MLW1 – Systems Thinking for Foresight
19Ozcan Saritas Sept 24, 2009
Bucharest
How are we using the foresight?
Strategic review looking at viability of activities
Profiling all staff in terms of research
Financial scenarios to anticipate potential negative public sector financial environment as post-election government seeks to repair public finances
Strong efforts in areas of discretionary income growth– Executive Education/Continuing Professional Development
MLW1 – Systems Thinking for Foresight
20Ozcan Saritas Sept 24, 2009
Bucharest
BUIM: Bosphorus University, Engineering Faculty The Department of Civil Engineering
PYY: Istanbul Technical University, Architecture Faculty, The Division of Project and Construction Management
3. PYY2023 & BUIM2023 Foresight Exercises
MLW1 – Systems Thinking for Foresight
21Ozcan Saritas Sept 24, 2009
Bucharest
Five Goals:
1. Thinking about the long term future in a holistic manner, and
2. Developing future visions for the construction industry and PYY and BUIM departments, with
3. A wide participation, to
4. Identify future R&D and T&E areas, and to
5. Develop research and teaching policies and strategies for long, medium and short terms.
PYY2023 & BUIM2023 Goals
MLW1 – Systems Thinking for Foresight
22Ozcan Saritas Sept 24, 2009
Bucharest
BUIM2023PYY2023
Pre-projectwork
Post-projectwork
Projectwork
Project proposal documents
Construction2023 survey
Keyword analysis
Project proposal and goal definition
Systems elements and relationships
Construction2023
BUIM2023 & PYY2023
Roadmapping
Decisions for today
Project Reports
Comparison
Further actions
MLW1 – Systems Thinking for Foresight
23Ozcan Saritas Sept 24, 2009
Bucharest
MLW1 – Systems Thinking for Foresight
24Ozcan Saritas Sept 24, 2009
Bucharest
MLW1 – Systems Thinking for Foresight
25Ozcan Saritas Sept 24, 2009
Bucharest
1. New R&D and teaching areas
2. New PhD and MSc topics
3. New curricula for 2010, 2015 & 2020
4. Optimisation of research and teaching potential
5. New recruitments (2007-2010 alternative energy sources)
6. Selection criteria for the employment of new researchers and research students
7. Collaborations needed with other disciplines
8. New infrastructure needs
9. Future development directions
10. “Know theyselves” More effective communication
Outputs & Outcomes
MLW1 – Systems Thinking for Foresight
26Ozcan Saritas Sept 24, 2009
Bucharest
References
Georghiou. L. (2009). Strategy to Join the Elite: Merger and the 2015 Agenda at the University of Manchester, in McKelvey M and Holmen M (eds) Learning To Compete In European Universities - From Social Institution to Knowledge Business Edward Elgar.
Saritas, O. (2006). Systems Thinking for Foresight, PhD Thesis, PREST, University of Manchester.
MLW1 – Systems Thinking for Foresight
27Ozcan Saritas Sept 24, 2009
Bucharest
End of presentation..
Dr. Ozcan [email protected]