foresight for developing countries and economies in transition

UNIDO Investment and Technology Promotion Branch

UNIDO Technology Foresight Programme

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Foresight for developing countries and economies in transition

UNIDO’s Role as a Policy Advisor Promoting Technology Foresight – Present and Future



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The New Global Setting

Increased financial, trade and investment flows Rapid and accelerating technological progress; electronics,

ICTs, biotechnology, new materials, fuel cells, nanotechnologies

New international regulations and standards, trade, quality, labor, environment, intellectual property rights

New systems to design, produce, distribute, and manage Global value chains and production networks emerge in all

types of industries managed by multinational companies and global buyers

Companies and governments in developing countries are even more affected by changes on global setting



3

Capacity & resources deficiencies in developing countries

Lack of conducive integrated policy and institutional framework

Under-developed technology and innovation promotion capabilities

Short-term thinking and reactive mode action System linkage failures and poor coordination Disconnection of application of new technologies from socio-

economic problems Scientific institutions with strong and inflexible disciplinary

focus Low technology and innovation intensity in industry Lack of funding for technology acquisition and diffusion Lack of human capital and increasing human resources crisis

(brain drain, demography) Absence of adequate equipment and infrastructure



4

Response to emerging challenges and opportunities

Redefining policies compatible with global industrial interconnections– Where innovation and technology up-grading are key for

competitiveness and sustainable development

Connecting national industries to global value chains– Need of global positioning of national industries

• Through comparing performance and drivers– Up-grading industrial capabilities

Enhancing industrial governance

Promoting foresight culture and application of foresight methodologies



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National economy boundary

Domestic industrial cluster

Global customers

Large-scale, multi-outlet retailers Small-scale retailers

Global buyers

Buyer and export agents

Local customers Large-scale or multi-plant manufacturers

Small-scale manufacturers

Small-scale suppliers

Global industrial interconnections



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Global industries

Industrial Clusters

Connecting national industry to global value chains

Systems

Su

pp

ort S

yste

ms

Support

Governance system

Framework conditions



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Global Links

Linking, liberating and learning

FDI and domestic capability building

Import of capital goods

Trade performance

Capabilities

Human Capital

Technology and innovation

Modern infrastructure

Enabling business environment

Regulatory framework

Credit ranking

Infrastructure

Cost of doing business

Cost of production

Governance

Industrial governance

Economic transformation index

Corporate social responsibility

Economic freedom

Performance Performance

GDP per capitaGDP per capita

Competitive industrial Competitive industrial performanceperformance

PovertyPoverty

EnvironmentEnvironment

Gender developmentGender development

Trade diversificationTrade diversification

Global Positioning of National Industries



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DriversDriversCountry positionCountry position

FirstQuartile

Second Quartile

ThirdQuartile

Last Quartile

Performance Performance XX

Business EnvironmentBusiness Environment XX

Technology and Technology and InnovationInnovation

XX

Global linkagesGlobal linkages XX

Governance Governance XX

Comparing Performance/Drivers



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0

25

50

75

100

Performance BusinessEnvironment

Technology andInnovation

Global Linkages Governance

Up-grading Industrial Capabilities



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Industrial Governance

GOVERNMENT

Guides the overall strategy process and focuses on strategic tasks and policy issues

PRIVATE SECTOR

Identify and assess challenges and opportunities and organize collective responses

SUPPORT SYSTEM

Analyze trends

Support clusters

Strengthen capabilities and global links

REGIONS

Promote and Support the development of local clusters



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Promotion of a foresight culture and application of the foresight methodology

Establishing a transparent structured decision-making process

Introducing a forward-looking attitude Provoking a creative and motivating decision making

environment Stimulating a participative approach Enabling mutual learning and strategic dialogue Reaching consensus around shared visions Linking technology acquisition and diffusion to wider socio-

economic issues



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What is foresight? B. Martin (1995):- Research foresight is “the process involved

in systematically attempting to look into the longer-term future of science, technology, the economy and society with the aim of identifying the areas of strategic research and the emerging generic technologies likely to yield the greatest economic and social benefits”

L. Georghiou (1996):- Technology foresight is “a systematic means of assessing those scientific and technological developments which could have a strong impact on industrial competitiveness, wealth creation and quality of life”

The future is „certainly uncertain“, foresight has to prepare us for a variety of "futures"



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What for Technology Foresight in developing countries and economies in transition?

Improve Improve decision makingdecision making

Guide Guide technology choicestechnology choices

Generate Generate alternative trajectoriesalternative trajectories for future development for future development

Enhance Enhance learninglearning and improve preparedness for and improve preparedness for emergenciesemergencies

Motivate Motivate changechange



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Typical stakeholders in a Foresight exercise

Foresight is about providing a framework for ongoing DIALOGUE between various societal actors, such as:

– Government– Industry– Academy - natural & social scientists– Others, e.g. NGOs, trades unions, the media, banks, schools,

the general public, etc.

An important benefit for these actors is mutual (and collective) learning



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The context of the Foresight processThe context of the Foresight process



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Inclusion of Foresight in policy-making process



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Classes of Foresight methods

CriteriaCriteria MethodsMethods

1. Methods based on eliciting expert knowledge to develop long term strategies

− Delphi method

− Experts panels

− Brainstorming

− Mindmapping

− Scenario analysis workshops

− SWOT analysis

2. Quantitative methods that make use of statistics and other data

− Trend extrapolation

− Simulation modelling

− Cross impact analysis

− System dynamics

3. Methods to identify key points of action to determine planning strategies

− Critical/ key technologies

− Relevance trees

− Morphological analysis



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Overview of some Overview of some common methods common methods (Loveridge, 1996)(Loveridge, 1996)

Combinations

of methods

Expertise•

Creativity

InteractionAlignment

Panels ConferencesImpactmatrix

La prospective

Sciencefiction

Brainstorming

Scenario

writing

Essays

DelphiWorkshops



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Status of foresightStatus of foresight

Multiple activities and purposes sharing a name

Content focus– Priority setting– Identifying ways in which future science and technology could address

future challenges for society and identifying potential opportunities

Structural focus (increasing tendency)– Reorienting Science & Innovation system– Demonstrating vitality of S & I system– Bringing new actors into the strategic debate– Building new networks and linkages across fields, sectors & markets or around

problems

Content and Structural Goals may be addressed simultaneously– All above may be at organisational, local, regional, national or supranational levels

Also foresight carrying input from S&T futures into wider policy domains



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Context of move to open innovationContext of move to open innovation

Convergence of innovation and industrial policy in the context of knowledge economy

Concept of innovation ecosystem

Foresight role in creating shared strategic vision

Emerging reorientation of innovation policy with new emphasis upon demand-side policies– Also an industrial policy based upon fostering clusters,

platforms and supply chains– Key driver of development is linkage between local capabilities

and effective demand



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Four generations of Four generations of ForesightForesightFIRST

GENERATION

Technology forecasts

SECOND GENERATION

Technology and markets

THIRDGENERATION

Technology, markets and the social dimension

FOURTHGENERATION

Distributed Role in Innovation System



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UNIDO Initiative on UNIDO Initiative on Technology ForesightTechnology Foresight



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Development objectives

Contribute to enhancing the Contribute to enhancing the industrial competitivenessindustrial competitiveness and expand and expand trading potentialtrading potential

Foster Foster economic, environmental and social benefitseconomic, environmental and social benefits at at national and regional levelsnational and regional levels

Definition of Definition of innovation policies and R&D programmesinnovation policies and R&D programmes



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Components

Awareness building and foresight cultureAwareness building and foresight culture

National and Regional / Supra-national capabilitiesNational and Regional / Supra-national capabilities

Regional and International coordination – Regional and International coordination – Partnerships promotionPartnerships promotion



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UNIDO support

International Conferences and workshops on International Conferences and workshops on best practices best practices and methodologiesand methodologies (national, supra-national and corporate) (national, supra-national and corporate)

Promoting Promoting industry participationindustry participation

Task force of experts Task force of experts and methodology development for and methodology development for preparation and during foresight exercisespreparation and during foresight exercises

Conducting foresight projects in selected productive chains Conducting foresight projects in selected productive chains and countriesand countries

Cooperation in the Cooperation in the post-foresight processpost-foresight process



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Tools and methodologies

Book on International Practices on Technology ForesightBook on International Practices on Technology Foresight

UNIDO Manual on Technology ForesightUNIDO Manual on Technology Foresight

Web page: Web page: www.unido.org/foresightwww.unido.org/foresight

CD-ROM collectionCD-ROM collection

Delphi on-lineDelphi on-line

TF for Production Chains (national and supra-national)TF for Production Chains (national and supra-national)



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Regional or Supra-national dimension

Foresight as a tool for Foresight as a tool for plurinational R&D programmesplurinational R&D programmes

Enhance quality and effectiveness of foresight through Enhance quality and effectiveness of foresight through multi-country networkingmulti-country networking

Reduce costs by sharing Reduce costs by sharing common activitiescommon activities

Awareness of global and Awareness of global and regional trendsregional trends

Joint vision and solutions for Joint vision and solutions for cross-border problemscross-border problems

Concentration of Concentration of plurinational production chainsplurinational production chains



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Foresight Exercise for Production Chains

ProductsProducts Production processesProduction processes

MarketsMarkets

Identification of:

Opportunities for the pluri-national production chains and industries

Required cooperation for technology up-grading

Identification of:

Opportunities for the pluri-national production chains and industries

Required cooperation for technology up-grading



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Special characteristics of the UNIDO approach:

Participation of different countries

Plurinational

Complex production chains

Multisectorial



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Examples of UNIDO foresight exercises

• Multi-countryMulti-country level level • National levelNational level• SubSub--national level national level • Company levelCompany level



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Regional or Multi-country foresight exercises and activities

Some issues have to be examined on higher than national level or international cooperation is required

• Training Programme on Technology Foresight (2001-7)

• Technology Foresight Summit - Budapest, Hungary (2003-7)

• Impact of EU-Accession to Agro-food and Automotive industries (2003)

• Future of the Fishery Industry in South American Pacific cost (2005-6)

• Future of the Andean Products: Medicinal Plants (2006-7)

• Future of the Food Industry in 6 CEE countries (2007-9)



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REGIONAL LATIN AMERICAREGIONAL LATIN AMERICA

THE FUTURE OF THE FUTURE OF

THE FISHERY INDUSTRYTHE FISHERY INDUSTRY

South American Pacific Coast South American Pacific Coast



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Fishery Productive Chain

Marine

Fresh water

Aquaculture

RESOURCES

Intermediate and final agricultural goods

Industrial intermediate goods

Production services

INDUSTRIAL INPUTS

Capital goods

Infrastructure

Factory ships

Seine

Small scale

EXTRACTION

Aquaculture

Canned

Frozen

Cured

PROCESSING

Concentrated

Hydrolysed

Meals and crude oils

HUMAN CONSUMPTION

NON - HUMAN CONSUMPTION

Semi-refined oils

Balanced food

Refined oils

Animal feed



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Regional Situation

National productive chains: fleets, industry, markets

Strengh and weakness of the environment

Regional Panel

National DiagnosticsNational Diagnostics

National Foresight Studies

Regional Panel and Report

Critical Technologies

Tools of Action

Decision Making Processes

National Panels Consultations

Methodology



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Future of the Fishery Industry in South American Future of the Fishery Industry in South American Pacific costPacific cost

Main resultsMain results

1) Agreements on 1) Agreements on regional cooperationregional cooperation for for improving productivity and competitivenessimproving productivity and competitiveness

2) Definition of 2) Definition of regional R&D programmesregional R&D programmes

3) Application of 3) Application of up-graded technologiesup-graded technologies



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Future of the Fishery Industry in South American Future of the Fishery Industry in South American Pacific costPacific cost

Recommendations for follow up programmesRecommendations for follow up programmes

- Definition of a Definition of a regional policyregional policy

- Technology up-grading and investment promotion for Technology up-grading and investment promotion for

re-conversion and modernizationre-conversion and modernization

- Creation of new Creation of new regional centerregional center for capability building and for capability building and technology watch/road mappingtechnology watch/road mapping

- - Establishing a Establishing a quality mark of originquality mark of origin for the fish products of for the fish products of the regionthe region



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Future of the Food Industry in Eastern EuropeFuture of the Food Industry in Eastern Europe

Project:Project: Healthy and Safe Food for the Future - A Technology Foresight Project in Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Hungary, Romania and Slovakia

Contract no.:Contract no.: 43005 FutureFood6

European Commission – 6th Framework

Starting date:Starting date: 01 February 2007

Duration:Duration: 2 years



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The immediate goal:The immediate goal: to assist the total food chain in Central and Eastern

European countries to reach international standards to enhance European competitiveness as a whole by

developing an industry, which is synonymous with safety, diversity, sophistication and products of high quality.



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Project strategy:

1. Mobilization of a variety of stakeholders groups2. A socio-economic scenario building exercise 3. Interviews with specialists.4. A survey on key technologies5. Future vision building exercise6. Technology road mapping



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OPTIUNIDOWIIW

Czech RepublicTC AS CR

Slovakia

BIC Group

FORESIGHT AND INNOVATION GROUP (FIG)

Committee of high-level national policy-makers

Croatia

NWMC

Romania

UEFISCSU

Bulgaria

ARC Fund

Hungary

IEHAS

B

C D Knowledge institutions on food industry from every

participating country

Project Team




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WP1 Kick off meeting

WP2 Future scenarios

WP3 Key technologies survey guidelines

WP4 Key Technologies survey analysis

WP5 Future Visions

WP6 Road Mapping

WP7 Policy Recommendations

WP8 Final Conference

WP

10

Pro

ject

coo

rdin

atio

n a

nd

man

age

me

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WP

9 D

isse

min

atio

n a

ctiv

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Work plan

flowchart




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National foresight programmes

• Chile - Identify strategic economic and technology sectors

• Brazil - Production chains: textiles, plastics, wood, construction

• Uruguay - Macro-sectors trends: food biotechnology, energy and transportation and logistics

• Venezuela - Application of the results of the TF exercise

• Ukraine – Establish the institutional framework and capability

• Romania - National STI Strategy



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Sub-national foresight

Specific problems of regions, individual subnational bodies of large countries

• Foresight Programme for Irkutsk – Russian Federation



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Corporate Foresight

Technology Fairs of the Future

Module 4: Training on Corporate Foresight – BIC Group, Bratislava, Slovakia



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Future UNIDO efforts

Support companies in developing countries and economies in transition to set up foresight capabilities

Establish a connection between the construction of alternative future visions through foresight exercises and the definition of industrial policies and governance framework.



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Regional Initiative on Technology Foresight in CEE/NIS

Regional Initiative on Regional Initiative on Technology Foresight in Technology Foresight in CEE/NISCEE/NIS- Capacity Building- Capacity Building



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IMPLEMENTATIONIMPLEMENTATION OF THE CEE/NIS TF INITIATIVEOF THE CEE/NIS TF INITIATIVE AWARENESS

BUILDING EVENTS TRAINING STUDIES COORDINATION

AND PARTNERSHIPS

2001

INTERNET LIFE

- REGIONAL CONFERENCE - Experts Group Meet.

MODULE 1

Budapest

METHODOS and TOOLS

CORE GROUP

2002

WEB PAGE

Kiev

Conference

- Manuals - CD ROM

EU ACCESSION IMPACT Automotive Agro-food

NATIONAL FOCAL POINTS

2003

e-MEDIA

TF Summit

2003 Budapest

- MODULE 1 Turkey - MODULE 2 Prague

BIOTECHNOLOGY INDUSTRIAL PARTNERS

2004/07

e-POLICY

TF Summit

2007 Budapest

- MODULE 1 Gebze, Turkey - MODULE 2 Prague - MODULE 3 Budapest - MODULE 4 Bratislava

PRODUCTION CHAINS

- REGIONAL R&D PROGRAMS - REGIONAL VIRTUAL CENTRE



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fp fp1

fp2

fpIMU

fp

fp

TFTraining

TFStudies

Steering Committee

Managing board

Regional Regional Virtual Virtual Center Center (RVC)(RVC)

Service UnitUNIDO

TFSummit

TFMethods



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TRAINING PROGRAMMETRAINING PROGRAMME

Module 1Module 1: Training on : Training on Organizing ForesightOrganizing Foresight programmes – TUSSIDE/TUBITAK, Gebze, Turkeyprogrammes – TUSSIDE/TUBITAK, Gebze, Turkey

Module 2Module 2: Training on TF : Training on TF MethodologiesMethodologies – – Technology Centre AS CR, Prague, Czech RepublicTechnology Centre AS CR, Prague, Czech Republic

Module 3Module 3: Seminar on Technology Foresight for : Seminar on Technology Foresight for Decision-MakersDecision-Makers – IE HAS/IPTS, Budapest, – IE HAS/IPTS, Budapest, HungaryHungary

Module 4Module 4: Training on : Training on Corporate ForesightCorporate Foresight – BIC – BIC Group, Bratislava, SlovakiaGroup, Bratislava, Slovakia

Module 5Module 5: Training of : Training of TrainersTrainers - ITPS- ITPS



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GLOBAL FORUM EVENTSGLOBAL FORUM EVENTS

2007 Technology Foresight Summit - Budapest, 2007 Technology Foresight Summit - Budapest, HungaryHungary

2008 Technology Fair of the Future – Izmir, 2008 Technology Fair of the Future – Izmir, TurkeyTurkey



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Technology Foresight Summit 2007Highlight: Water Productivity

27-29 September 2007 Budapest, Hungary

organized in cooperation with

Ministry of Economy and Transport of the Republic of Hungary



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TF Summit-2007

Immediate objectives:Immediate objectives: To organize a regular summitTo organize a regular summit To address a selected highlight area through To address a selected highlight area through

undertaking regional and cross-regional discussionsundertaking regional and cross-regional discussions To interact on the results of TF exercisesTo interact on the results of TF exercises

Expected outputs:Expected outputs: Strengthened and sustained awarenessStrengthened and sustained awareness Recommendation for high-level decision-makersRecommendation for high-level decision-makers Encouragement of TF programmesEncouragement of TF programmes Application of results of FT studies for selected Application of results of FT studies for selected

Highlighted AreasHighlighted Areas Identification of relevant problems in the regionsIdentification of relevant problems in the regions



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Components of the TF Summit-2007

Special emphasisSpecial emphasis on water productivity addressing on water productivity addressing industry related technologies: protection of water industry related technologies: protection of water resources and key technologies for zero discharge resources and key technologies for zero discharge

through:through:

1.1. Water Productivity SymposiumWater Productivity Symposium

2.2. Water Technology Fair of the FutureWater Technology Fair of the Future

3.3. Ministerial Round TableMinisterial Round Table

4.4. Technology Foresight thematic panelsTechnology Foresight thematic panels



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2008 Technology Fair of the Future

ESBAS-Aegean Free Zone

Izmir, Turkey, May 2008



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Objectives of the Technology Fair: 1. to offer participating enterprises and

technology institutes the opportunity to present new ideas, designs, concepts, future products and markets as well as foresight visions in their fields of specialization.

2. offer participants a platform to forge partnerships, linkages, strategic alliances and joint ventures for improved access to markets



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www.unido.org/foresightwww.unido.org/foresight

Dr.-Ing. Ricardo Seidl da FonsecaDr.-Ing. Ricardo Seidl da Fonseca

Pilar Rodriguez-RuizPilar Rodriguez-Ruiz

INVESTMENT AND TECHNOLOGY PROMOTION INVESTMENT AND TECHNOLOGY PROMOTION BRANCHBRANCH

foresight for developing countries and economies in transition

Documents