forecasting hazards & charting a safe course how to plan changes in flight safety programs to...

Forecasting Hazards & Charting a Safe

Course

How to Plan Changes in Flight Safety Programs

to Meet Future Safety Challenges

How to Plan Changes in Flight Safety Programs to

Meet Future Safety Challenges

Welcome Safety Managers & all to EASS

2003, Geneva!

Welcome Safety Managers & all to EASS 2003, Geneva!

Flight Safety Foundation, European Advisory Committee

Welcome Safety Managers & all to EASS

2003, Geneva!

European Regions Airline Association

Charles Dodgson, Oxford math lecturer, text author,

1850’s-1880’s

Lewis Carroll writer of children's books 1850’s -1880’s

Caricature by Zach Trenholm, SALON Magazine.

Planning

Alice in Wonderland

Alice said to the Cat, ‘Would you tell me, please, which way I ought to go from here?’

‘That depends a good deal on where you want to get to,’ said the Cheshire Cat.

‘I don’t much care where…’ said Alice.

‘Then it doesn’t matter which way you go,’ said the Cheshire Cat.

‘…so long as I get somewhere,’ Alice added as an explanation.

‘Oh, you’re sure to do that,’ said the Cheshire Cat, ‘if you only walk long enough.’

Flight safety program managers need to know know

which wawhich wayy to to ggoo…

& how far to walk to become accidentaccident ppreventersreventers…

… and not become

accidentaccident investiinvestiggatorsators!

Procedures & Examples of how to produce…

Safety

Forecast & Plans

Annual Safety ForecastForecast &Annual Safety PlanPlan

Safety

Forecast & Plans

...to meet Future SafetFuture Safetyy Challen Challenggeses

Safety

Forecast & Plans

Paul Miller

-pilots association, safety committee-association represents 2500+ pilots who fly for a global logistics company

& express package delivery service

-B767 & B757 international line captain

-Safety program manager:pilot association, 2 airports & aspecialized air logistics

organization

• Paul Miller, safety committee member

• pilots association

•Safety program manager:Safety program manager:

pilot association, 2 airports & a specialized air logistics organization

Safety Forecasts & Plans


-Simple Procedures


-Simple Procedures-Estimating and Compensating


-Simple Procedures-Estimating and Compensating-Expected Flight Safety Hazards


-Simple Procedures-Estimating and Compensating-Expected Flight Safety Hazards-As yet Unresolved


-Simple Procedures-Estimating and Compensating-Expected Flight Safety Hazards-As yet Unresolved-As yet Unmanaged


-Simple Procedures-Estimating and Compensating-Expected Flight Safety Hazards-As yet Unresolved-As yet Unmanaged-May be Unreported


-Simple Procedures-Estimating and Compensating-Expected Flight Safety Hazards-As yet Unresolved-As yet Unmanaged-May be Unreported-Will affect a local organization…


-Simple Procedures-Estimating and Compensating-Expected Flight Safety Hazards-As yet Unresolved-As yet Unmanaged-May be Unreported-Will affect a local organization…

…YOURS!

…All Safety is Local

Annual Safety Forecast -based on Early Detection of Hazards-using cultural listening

Annual Safety Forecast -based on Early Detection of Hazards-using cultural listening-not exact science-daily working list

Annual Safety Forecast -based on Early Detection of Hazards-using cultural listening-not exact science-daily working list-logical inductive reasoning

Annual Safety Forecast -based on Early Detection of Hazards-using cultural listening-not exact science-daily working list-logical inductive reasoning-calculation of risk -mathematical, graphic modeling

What are Hazards?

What are Hazards?-Probable Risks

What are Hazards?-Probable Risks -Serious Risks


People


People-Injury & Death



Property



Property-Damage &

Destruction


People $$Euros$$-Injury & Death

Property -Damage &

Destruction



Property $$Euros$$-Damage &

Destruction

What are Hazard$?-Probable Risk$ -Serious Risk$


Property $$Euros$$-Damage &

DestructionAdditional cost$?

Hazard Unresolved?

Hazard Unresolved?

-no strategy for resolution?

Hazard Unresolved?


-longstanding?

Hazard Unresolved?


-longstanding?

-culturally accepted as “irresolvable”?

Hazard Unmanaged?

Hazard Unmanaged?

-no manager for resolution?

Hazard Unmanaged?


-no assigned manager?

Hazard Unmanaged?


-no assigned manager?

-assigned manager not functioning?

Hazard Unreported?

Hazard Unreported?

-New or emerging hazard?

Hazard Unreported?


-Known but unreported?

Hazard Unreported?


-Known but unreported?

-Reoccurring hazard?

Hazard Affect?

Hazard Affect?

-people?

Hazard Affect?

-people?

-your local organization?

Hazard Affect?

-people?


-customers, neighbors & visitors?

Hazard Affect?

Hazard Affect?

-property & equipment?

Hazard Affect?



Hazard Affect?



-belonging to others?

Early Detection

…is the key

Why Early DetectionEarly Detection?

The earlier a hazard is The earlier a hazard is detected by a forecast, detected by a forecast, the earlier a resolution the earlier a resolution plan can be created.plan can be created.

Early Detection Theorem


The longer a hazard exists,


The longer a hazard exists, the higher the probability that it will cause a mishap

Why Detection at all Detection at all?

Hazard & MishaHazard & Mishapp Theorem Theorem

Why Detection Detection at all?


A. Mishaps Mishaps are ‘hazard-hazard-basedbased’

Why DetectionDetection at all?



B. HazardsHazards are ‘people-people-actionaction’

Why DetectionDetection at all?



B. HazardsHazards are ‘people-people-actionaction’ or ‘lack-of-action’lack-of-action’-basedbased

Hazard & Mishap Theorem Corollary


Elimination of ‘people-based’ hazards…


Elimination of ‘people-based’ hazards…eliminates the basis for mishaps.

Safety Riddle:

Safety Riddle: Does the mishap cause the hazard to occur?

??

Safety Riddle: Does the mishap cause the hazard to occur? Or does the hazard cause the mishap to occur? ? ?

??

Safety Riddle: Does the mishap cause the hazard to occur? Or does the hazard cause the mishap to occur?

? ???

?

Quickness Corollary to Early Detection

Theorem…


Theorem…

The quicker a hazard is resolved,


Theorem…

The quicker a hazard is resolved, the lower the probability that the hazard will cause a mishap.


Theorem…

The quicker a hazard is resolved, the lower the probability that the hazard will cause a mishap.

The resolution time is as The resolution time is as important as the important as the resolutionresolution

Rabbit

Response

Annual Safety Planbased on Rabbit Response of

Resolution

Annual Safety Plan-based on Rapid Response of

Resolutionfrom Hazard Report Recommendations


Resolutionfrom Hazard Report Recommendations • Immediate Intervention:

affecting Procedure, Practice, Technique




• Interim Remediation: affecting Policy, Procedure




• Interim Remediation: affecting Policy, Procedure

• Long Term Resolution: affecting Philosophy, Policy

Annual Safety Plan-based on Rapid Response of Resolution

from Hazard Report Recommendations • Immediate Intervention: affecting

Procedure, Practice, Technique• Interim Remediation: affecting

Policy, Procedure • Long Term Resolution: affecting

Philosophy, Policy

Hazard Intervention = Mishap PreventionHazard Intervention = Mishap Prevention

Early Detection Methods


-Internal


-Internal

-Direct and Formal


-Internal

-Direct and Formal Verbal & written, in-person, email, on-line, mail, phone call, suggestion box,


-Internal

-Direct and Formal Verbal & written, in-person, email, on-line, mail, phone call, suggestion box, your boss, your peers, your employees,


-Internal

-Direct and Formal Verbal & written, in-person, email, on-line, mail, phone call, suggestion box, your boss, your peers, your employees, training material, safety audits, on-site safety assist visits,


-Internal

-Direct and Formal Verbal & written, in-person, email, on-line, mail, phone call, suggestion box, your boss, your peers, your employees, training material, safety audits, on-site safety assist visits, your own safety inspections, any credible source.


-Internal

-Indirect and Informal


-Internal

-Indirect and Informal Grapevine, water-cooler, ear-to-rail, inferred from other comments & reports,


-Internal

-Indirect and Informal Grapevine, water-cooler, ear-to-rail, inferred from other comments & reports, meeting comments, customers, visitors, anonymous source, smoke-on-horizon,


-Internal

-Indirect and Informal Grapevine, water-cooler, ear-to-rail, inferred from other comments & reports, meeting comments, customers, visitors, anonymous source, smoke-on-horizon, gossip, intelligence sources, your own intuition, experience, judgment,


-Internal

-Indirect and Informal Grapevine, water-cooler, ear-to-rail, inferred from other comments & reports, meeting comments, customers, visitors, anonymous source, smoke-on-horizon, gossip, intelligence sources, your own intuition, experience, judgment, piece together story, from any credible source.


-External

-Formal and Informal


-External

-Formal and Informal Industry literature,


-External

-Formal and Informal Industry literature, other industry literature, seminars, conferences,


-External

-Formal and Informal Industry literature, other industry literature, seminars, conferences, workshops, trade organizations,


-External

-Formal and Informal Industry literature, other industry literature, seminars, conferences, workshops, trade organizations, regulatory material, inferred from other safety organizations, press reports,


-External

-Formal and Informal Industry literature, other industry literature, seminars, conferences, workshops, trade organizations, regulatory material, inferred from other safety organizations, press reports, other industry member’s actions, any credible source.

Credible Source

Cultural Listening Lessons

Cultural Listening Lessons-SubstanceSubstance of Communications:

Cultural Listening Lessons-Substance of Communications: what is what is being said, what is not being said?being said, what is not being said?

Cultural Listening Lessons-Substance of Communications: what is being said, what is not being said?

--ResponseResponse::


-Response: Acknowledge, propose Acknowledge, propose remedy.remedy.


-Response: Acknowledge, propose remedy.

-StyleStyle of Communications:



-Style of Communications: how it is how it is being said & what else can you infer?being said & what else can you infer?



-Style of Communications: how it is being said & what else can you infer?

-Response:



-Style of Communications: how it is being said & what else can you infer?

-Response: Give appreciation, credit, encouragement, positive reassurance that remedy is forthcoming, in cultural language of reporter (local, vernacular)

Probability

Probability-Probable, percentages, possible, likely, likelihood, potential, numerical advantage, mathematical model, graphs, charts, tables, historical data


-Local interpretations, verbal descriptions, artistic stories, traditional analogies, personal expressions of feelings.


-Local interpretations, verbal descriptions, artistic stories, traditional analogies, personal expressions of feelings.

-WHATEVER WORKS BESTWHATEVER WORKS BEST in cultural context of your local organization

Safety Forecasting

Safety Forecasting-Looking ahead


-used in many businesses



-based on principle of early detection



-based on principle of early detection of unreported, unmanaged & unresolved



-based on principle of early detection of unreported, unmanaged & unresolved hazards to people and property




-based on principle of rapid response




-based on principle of rapid response

-based on classifying hazard as a procedure, practice, policy, technique or philosophy

Safety Forecasting-procedureprocedure is written step by step specific instructions such as Aircraft Operating Manual Instrument Landing Procedures

Safety Forecasting-procedure is written step by step specific instructions

-practicepractice is common customary application of a procedure by the pilot (practitioner) such as how to execute Instrument Landing Procedures


-practice is common customary application

-policypolicy is written organizational goal for all to follow such as, “all pilots shall be trained in Instrument Landing Procedures for operations during instrument conditions”



-policy is written organizational goal for all to follow

-techniquetechnique is an art, style or twist of how best to execute these landing practices to obtain increased airport capacity safely



-policy is written organizational goal for all to follow

-technique is an art, style or twist

-philosophyphilosophy is a set of orderly rules of conduct for all to decide right from wrong such as instrument procedures improve public safety in commercial aviation.

Safety Forecasting-what are the people and property for which you have:

Safety Forecasting-what are the people and property for which you have:

“responsibility, ownership, oversight, liability, duty of care, awareness or other local connection.”

Missing Doppler radar story 1996. After 1978 microburst mishap and 1985 mishap major hub airport still did not Doppler radar. While it was the responsibility of the weather service, CAA and city airport, it was the airline which suffered the loss in life and money.

Sir, does your dog bite? No, my dog does not bite… Ouch! The dog bit me! You said your dog does not bite! Yes, but that is not my dog!

Safety Forecasting

-awareness from early detection

-logical inductive reasoning

Deductive reasoning vs Inductive ?

Safety ForecastingWill the hazard affect them?


A. Deduction:


A. Deduction:-Yes, because it has affected them

in the past


A. Deduction:-Yes, because it has affected them

in the past, or

-No, because it has not affected them in the past.


B. Induction:


B. Induction:-Yes, because it poses a probable, serious risk


B. Induction:-Yes, because it poses a probable, serious risk, or

-No, because my assets are probably not at serious risk.

Inductive reasoning-outside the data set

-projecting outward

-educated guess

-estimate

-based on experience and judgment

-financial, crop, business, sports, weather, housing, marketing, production, political, election, education forecasts.

Pothole in the Road

Pothole in the Road-gradually appears and gets worse


-every car doesn’t hit it



-obvious for all to see




-some cars hit it anyway





-some of those cars blow a tire






-some of those lose control







-some of those collide with a car or tree







-some of those collide with a car or tree

-some of those will be injured

Pothole in the Road-some of those will die


-all because of a pothole in the road



-the pothole could have been fixed as soon as it appeared




-Deduction says no one would get hurt because no one has been hurt yet.




-Deduction says no one would get hurt because no one has been hurt yet.

-Induction says if we fix the pothole no one will get hurt.

Inductive Logic Safety managers must perfect Safety managers must perfect

inductive logic to prevent accidentsinductive logic to prevent accidents

Inductive Logic Safety managers must perfect

inductive logic to prevent accidents or they will spend a lot of time using they will spend a lot of time using deductive reasoningdeductive reasoning trying to explain trying to explain why some disaster occurred.why some disaster occurred.

Calculation of the Risk of the Hazard

0

+Y

+X

+Z

100%

Risk may vary by time of day, time of season, time of year

Times of high activity, low activity, combined activity & coincidence

-Risk equals probability times seriousness

Z = X Y

Z=XY-Three dimensional curve, depicting the full range of risks. It is a graphic display of the safety challenge

Mathematical expression of

Hazard Risk of Cost of Loss or “Z”

Z = sine |X| N (Y)Where:

X = Hazard Probability from 0 to ‘here-it-comes’

Y = Hazard Seriousness from minor to major

Sine = regular time fluctuations

N = variable factors

N = n1+n2+n3+n4+n5+n6, where:

n1 = Assigned legal punitive costs

n2 = Loss of public relations image & market share

n3 = Loss of managerial talent to resolving disaster

n4 = Loss of company growth & productivity

n5 = Employee morale destruction

n6 = Eventual discovery that disaster was preventable causing loss of confidence

A graph of the mathematical equation ‘Z= sine|X|(NY)’ gives a

visual clue to the magnitude of the safety hazard resolution

challenge!

.

Hazard Risk of Cost of Loss is product of two other factors & is somewhat geometric

Risk (costs) = probability x severityZ = X Y where Z, X,Y>0

Severity and probability grow together the costs begin a rise in risk cost.

Safety Forecast may involve you becoming aware of hazards such as these:

-Flightcrew observing language-based misunderstood ATC instructions, which have led to close encounters with terrain, heard about on a crew bus

-Increased employee auto mishap injuries, heard about from health benefit director

-unreported ?

-unmanaged ?

-unresolved ?

Planning

…from local safety forecast

Planning involves very specific procedures, which

are clear for your local local organizationorganization to follow.

-Innovative flight crew terrain hazard awareness training


-All-employee drive-safe activities



-Examples of local flight safety programs




-Responding to forecasts of unresolved hazards




-Responding to forecasts of unresolved hazards,

-Preventing accidents rather than Preventing accidents rather than investigating aviation disastersinvestigating aviation disasters

Planning involves very specific recommended procedures for

external external organizations

-Coordinated Interagency Premishap Preparation


-Letters of Safety Concern



-Examples of specific recommendations



-Examples of specific recommendations for organizations external to your local operation

Example of annual safety forecast

Example of annual safety forecast & annual safety plan based on forecast.


-Airport Operations safety department produced an Annual Safety Forecast


-Airport Operations safety department produced an Annual Safety Forecast based on culturally interpreted hazard report data, logical projections,


-Airport Operations safety department produced an Annual Safety Forecast based on culturally interpreted hazard report data, logical projections, industry literature and seminars,


-Airport Operations safety department produced an Annual Safety Forecast based on culturally interpreted hazard report data, logical projections, industry literature and seminars, expressions of probability and severity determinations.


-Airport operations safety department produced an Annual Safety Forecast based on culturally interpreted hazard report data, logical projections, industry literature and seminars, expressions of probability and severity determinations.

-From the Forecast



-From the Forecast an Annual Safety Plan



-From the Forecast an Annual Safety Plan was developed to address the hazards.

Annual Hazard Forecast for Airport Ops

1. Bird strikes, bird activity & habitat growth reported by on-site ornithology safety visit last year

2. FOD from construction observed migrating to airport ramp, airlines reporting more FOD damage in industry seminar

3. Air Disaster local coordination problems experienced in communications, transportation, tasking

4. Increased hazmat employee exposure read about in trade magazine and some episodes experienced locally

5. Passenger & employee minor injury increase reported due to slippery floors and tripping hazards

6. Employee driving losses & vehicular damage increase mentioned by airport medical staff

7. Airport highway construction activities due to increase without sufficient study of alternate traffic lanes and pedestrian walk paths

Annual Hazard ForecastForecast for Airport Ops

1. Bird strikesBird strikes, bird activity & habitat growth reported by on-site ornithology safety visit last year

2. FODFOD from construction observed migrating to airport ramp, airlines reporting more FOD damage in industry seminar

3. Air Disaster local coordination problemscoordination problems experienced in communications, transportation, tasking

4. Increased hazmat employee exposurehazmat employee exposure read about in trade magazine and some episodes experienced locally

5. Passenger & employee minor injury increaseminor injury increase reported due to slippery floors and tripping hazards

6. Employee driving losses & vehicular damagedriving losses & vehicular damage increase mentioned by airport medical staff

7. Airport highway construction activities due to increase without without sufficient study of alternate traffic lanes and pedestrian walk alternate traffic lanes and pedestrian walk pathspaths

Annual Hazard Forecast for Airport Ops

1. Bird strikes, bird activity & habitat growth reportedreported by on-site ornithology safety visitsafety visit last year

2. FOD from construction observed observed migrating to airport ramp, airlines reporting more FOD damage in industry seminarseminar

3. Air Disaster local coordination problems experiencedexperienced in communications, transportation, tasking

4. Increased hazmat employee exposure read aboutread about in trade magazine and some episodes experienced locallyexperienced locally

5. Passenger & employee minor injury increase reportedreported due to slippery floors and tripping hazards

6. Employee driving losses & vehicular damage increase mentioned mentioned byby airport medical staff

7. Airport highway construction activities due to increase without sufficient studysufficient study of alternate traffic lanes and pedestrian walk paths

Annual Safety Plan for Airport Ops

Annual Safety Plan for Airport OpsJanuary-Quarterly Premishap Exercise-Alert Notification


February-All Ramp FOD Deep Cleaning



March-All Employee Seatbelt Drive Safe Training




April-Quarterly Premishap Exercise-Interagency Tasking





May-Passenger Terminal Safety Inspection & Ramp Vehicle Review






June-All Employee First-aid Training







July-Quarterly Premishap Exercise-Radio Communication








August-All Airfield Grassy Area FOD Deep Cleaning









September-Bird Activity & Habitat Ornithology Review










October-Quarterly Premishap Exercise-Transportation











November-All Employee Hazmat Awareness Training











November-All Employee Hazmat Awareness Training

December-Access Highway Traffic & Pedestrian Safety Review

Annual Safety PlanPlan for Airport OpsJanuaryJanuary- Quarterly Premishap Exercise-Alert Notification

FebruaryFebruary- All Ramp FOD Deep Cleaning

MarchMarch- All Employee Seatbelt Drive Safe Training

AprilApril- Quarterly Premishap Exercise-Interagency Tasking

MayMay- Passenger Terminal Safety Inspection & Ramp Vehicle Review

JuneJune- All Employee First-aid Training

JulyJuly- Quarterly Premishap Exercise-Radio Communication

AugustAugust- All Airfield Grassy Area FOD Deep Cleaning

SeptemberSeptember- Bird Activity & Habitat Ornithology Review

OctoberOctober- Quarterly Premishap Exercise-Transportation

NovemberNovember- All Employee Hazmat Awareness Training

DecemberDecember- Access Highway Traffic & Pedestrian Safety Review

Annual Safety PlanPlan for Airport OpsJanuary-Quarterly Premishap ExerciseExercise-Alert Notification

February-All Ramp FOD Deep CleaningFOD Deep Cleaning

March-All Employee Seatbelt Drive Safe TrainingTraining

April-Quarterly Premishap Exercise Exercise-Interagency Tasking

May-Passenger Terminal Safety InspectionInspection & Ramp Vehicle ReviewReview

June-All Employee First-aid TrainingTraining

July-Quarterly Premishap ExerciseExercise-Radio Communication

August-All Airfield Grassy Area FOD Deep CleaningFOD Deep Cleaning

September-Bird Activity & Habitat Ornithology ReviewReview

October-Quarterly Premishap Exercise Exercise-Transportation

November-All Employee Hazmat Awareness TrainingTraining

December-Access Highway Traffic & Pedestrian Safety ReviewReview

Annual Hazard Forecast for Flight Ops


1. Lack of effective flight crew hazard reporting system.



2. Insufficient meteorological support & ATC procedures for convective weather flight ops avoidance.




3. Regulatory shortfall concerning flight duty and rest.





4. Insufficient aircraft rescue and firefighting (ARFF) capability at smaller airfields, during ‘off-peak’ traffic hours, when you operate.






5. Varying levels of regulatory safety concerning the required equipment for proposed DRVSM operations.






5. Varying levels of regulatory safety concerning the required equipment for proposed DRVSM operations.

6. Human factors problems view as labor-management issue with cultural overtones.

Annual Safety Plan for Flight Ops


1. Develop on-line hazard reporting system,


1. Develop on-line hazard reporting system, with built-in response procedures,


1. Develop on-line hazard reporting system, with built-in response procedures, feed-back procedures


1. Develop on-line hazard reporting system, with built-in response procedures, feed-back procedures & live person management of hazards until resolved.

Annual Safety Plan for Flight Ops1. Develop on-line hazard reporting system, with built-in response procedures, feed-back procedures & live person management of hazards until resolved

2. Obtain on-line vendor meteorology product,


2. Obtain on-line vendor meteorology product, accessible by flight crew anywhere.


2. Obtain on-line vendor meteorology product, accessible by flight crew anywhere. Contact CAA ATC quality assurance manager to discuss better convective weather ATC display


2. Obtain on-line vendor meteorology product, accessible by flight crew anywhere. Contact CAA ATC quality assurance manager to discuss better convective weather ATC display & weather avoidance procedures.


2. Obtain on-line vendor meteorology product, accessible by flight crew anywhere. Contact CAA ATC quality assurance manager to discuss better convective weather ATC display & weather avoidance procedures.

3. Publish position paper and submit legal abstracts to CAA


2. Obtain on-line vendor meteorology product, accessible by flight crew anywhere. Contact CAA ATC quality assurance manager to discuss better convective weather ATC display & weather avoidance procedures

3. Publish position paper and submit legal abstracts to CAA about regulations affecting flight duty and rest.



3. Publish position paper and submit legal abstracts to CAA about regulations affecting flight duty and rest. Review company manual concerning flight duty and rest procedures.




4. Begin campaign to change philosophy of government administrators




4. Begin campaign to change philosophy of government administrators concerning funding rescue & firefighting (ARFF).




4. Begin campaign to change philosophy of government administrators concerning funding rescue & firefighting (ARFF). Begin pilot education program to explain ARFF shortfall.




4. Begin campaign to change philosophy of government administrators concerning funding rescue & firefighting (ARFF). Begin pilot education program to explain ARFF shortfall. Contact local ARFF managers to improve service for particular scheduled operations of your organization.




4. Begin campaign to change philosophy of government administrators concerning funding rescue & firefighting (ARFF). Begin pilot education program to explain ARFF shortfall. Contact local ARFF managers to improve service for particular scheduled operations

5. Attend CAA hearings to call for “One Level Of Safety” for all DRVSM operations communication.





5. Attend CAA hearings to call for “One Level Of Safety” for all DRVSM operations communication. Publish proceedings in company newsletter.






6. Establish Human Factors Workshop based on latest human factors research,






6. Establish Human Factors Workshop based on latest human factors research, to influence company culture






6. Establish Human Factors Workshop based on latest human factors research, to influence company culture, deemphasize human factors as management-labor issue.

Annual Safety PlanPlan for Flight Ops

1. DevelopDevelop on-line hazard reporting system, with built-in response procedures, feed-back procedures & live person management of hazards until resolved

2. ObtainObtain on-line vendor meteorology product, accessible by flight crew anywhere Contact CAA ATC quality assurance manager to discuss better convective weather ATC display & weather avoidance procedures

3. PublishPublish position paper and submit legal abstracts to CAA about regulations affecting flight duty and rest. Review company manual concerning flight duty and rest procedures.

4. Begin campaign to ChangeChange philosophy of government administrators concerning funding rescue & firefighting (ARFF). Begin pilot education program to explain ARFF shortfall. Contact local ARFF managers to improve service for particular scheduled operations

5. AttendAttend CAA hearings to call for “One Level Of Safety” for all DRVSM

operations communication. PublishPublish proceedings in company newsletter.

6.EstablishEstablish Human Factors Workshop based on latest human factors research, to influence company culture, deemphasize labor issue.

Annual Safety Plan for Flight Ops1. Develop on-line hazard reporting systemsystem, with built-in response procedures, feed-back proceduresprocedures & live person management of hazards until resolved

2. Obtain on-line vendor meteorology productproduct, accessible by flight crew anywhere. Contact CAA ATC quality assurance manager to discuss better

convective weather ATC display & weather avoidance proceduresprocedures

3. Publish position paper and submit legal abstractsabstracts to CAA about regulations affecting flight duty and rest. Review company manual

concerning flight duty and rest proceduresprocedures.

4. Begin campaign to change philosophyphilosophy of government administrators concerning funding rescue & firefighting (ARFF). Begin pilot educationeducation program to explain ARFF shortfall. Contact local ARFF managers to improve service service for particular scheduled operations

5. Attend CAA hearings to call for “One Level Of SafetyOne Level Of Safety” for all DRVSM operations communication. Publish proceedings in company newsletternewsletter.

6. Establish Human Factors WorkshopWorkshop based on latest human factors research, to influence company culture culture, deemphasize human factors as management-labor issue.

Conclusion

Charting a safe courseCharting a safe course

Safety Forecast-based on hazards which are:

1. Unreported

2. Unmanaged

3. Unresolved

4. Local Affect

Safety Plan

-based on Local Safety Forecast:

1. To report hazard

2. To manage hazard

3. To resolve hazard

4. To protect local assets

Successful Flight Safety Program

Procedures…

…

to keep one step ahead of the next big accident

…lower your local accident rate to zero!

!!

!

!!

Forecasting Hazards & Planning Change to meet Future Safety Challenges!

Thank you!

forecasting hazards & charting a safe course how to plan changes in flight safety programs to...

Documents

unresolved slide

compensating slide

unmanaged slide

local slide

unreported slide

wonderland slide

simple procedures slide

cultural listening slide