forecasting by saniah saleem rao
TRANSCRIPT
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Topic
Forecasting
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Topics •What is forecast•Elements of the forecasting •Steps in the forecasting•Approaches to the forecasting
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What is Forecasting
• Forecasting is the future prediction on the behalf of situation.
• Forecasting is the basis process of the business planning, planning is the integral part of any business.
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Basis of Forecasting
• Current Situation/Current Factors• Past Experiences/Past Factors
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Common Feature’s
• Experience• The same will be done• Prediction about the future
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Common Features CONT…• Group of item may be more accurate into the
individual items• Forecasting accuracy: high accuracy to
produced good and services in low time that use more forecasting.
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Elements of the Forecasting
• Timely Forecasting• Accurate Forecasting• Measureable Forecasting
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Elements of the Forecasting
CONT…• Reliable Forecasting• Easy to use• Cost Effectiveness
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Steps in Forecasting
• Purpose of forecasting• Established time horizon• Select of forecasting technique
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Steps in Forecasting
CONT…• Prepared of forecasting• Monitor of the forecasting• Gather & Analysis data
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Approaches of the Forecasting
Quantitative Technique: Use more data & more time.
Judgmental Technique: A subjective analysis of subjective input.
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Approaches of the Forecasting
CONT… Associate Model: Use explanatory variables to
predict the future analysis. Time Series Technique: Historical data use for
the future forecasting.
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Quantitative Technique
• Qualitative Technique• Subjective Impact
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Judgemental Forecasting
Judgemental forecasting is uses subjective inputs, to Implement a systematic approach & justify the data. A separate forecaster and user.
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Judgemental Forecasting
Executive Opinion: Decision will take upper level of managers.
Sale force Opinion: Upgrade the level of sales. Consumer Survey: To survey the consumer need &
what they want.
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Judgemental Forecasting
CONT… Delphi Method: The method relies on the key
assumption that forecast from a group are generally more accurate then those from individual.
Outside Opinion: Financial & consulting gurus & companies.
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Judgemental Forecasting
CONT… Opinion of manager & staff: A series of
Questionnaires developed sequentially.
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Associative ModelThe technique is use for exploratory series for forecast for future predict demand.• Predictor Variable: Is independent variable.• Predicted Variable: Is dependent variable.• Regression: It’s a technique.
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Forecast based on time series
The time series forecasting on the behalf of past basic behaviours, “There are some variations”:•Trend Variation•Seasonal Variation•cyclical Variation•Irregular Variation•Random Variation
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Trend Variation•Trend Variation are basically long term variation .•Movement of trend depend on time .
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Trend Variation
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Seasonal Variation
Seasonal Variation is basically short term, depend on business type.
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Seasonal Variation
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Cyclical Variation
•The variation is realistic more then one (1) year.•Variation as like wives,(ups & down)
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Irregular Variation
•Unexpected reason, reason was not observed.•Unexpected reasons that is directly effected on the business.
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Random Variation
Slowly change with the passage of the time, very little change in the variation.
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Native Method•In this method predict the past
observations & behavior.•Previous time, previous observation is the
actual value of the time.
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Technique for Averaging
Up’s & down is the part of the business time but consider only real variation.Example:In the last working on top.
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Technique for Averaging CONT…
•Moving Average•Weighted Average•Exponential Smooth
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Thank you