PowerPoint Sunusu

IntroductionWell use forecasting to see predicted used merchandise sales for 2015.The sales variable is million dollars as unit of money. The data has seasonal and trend patterns.Dependent Variable: Used Merchandise salesIndependent Variables: Per Capita Income, Consumer Price Index, Dummy months from February to DecemberPreliminary Data Analysis

Preliminary Data Analysis

Preliminary Data Analysis

Preliminary Data Analysis

Averaging ModelsMAPEMADMSDNaive8,6666,248252,88Moving Average Method6,9755,955400,97Simple Exponential Smoothing7,1155,085341,72Holts Exponential Smoothing7,4256,135283,41Winters Exponential Smoothing (Additive)5,9244,033339,05Averaging Models

Averaging Models

DecompositionMAPEMADMSDDecomposition-Additive8,5968,277217,97Decomposition-Multiplicative8,7969,867403,25

Decomposition

Regression

Regression

Regression

Regression

MAPEMADRegression7,253,751Regression

Model Selection and Forecasting

Model Selection and ForecastingWinters Additive model is the best model for us because it has the lowest error values.Winters Additive Forecast Results

20142015January10651201February11081251March12751383April12661330May12921360June12451314July13391359August13641411September13101337October14221444November12641350December12531366Managerial Implications and Business PlanWere planning to focus on marketing when sales decreased in forecasted months. When we look at the forecasted months; in January, April, June, September, November we see decreasing sales.We want to increase the sales in declined months. To do this, were planning to make some discounts and promotions. For example buy one jean get one jean free. Also were planning bring old get new one cheaper promotions. Well focus on advertising as well.

Managerial Implications and Business PlanPeople with low income demand more for used merchandises so we may choose low income places to open new stores, for example Detroit.Due to decrease in January, we may sell New Year concept products during the month. Due to decrease in June, we may sell used bridal dresses and suits because summer weddings are very popular. Also we may sell used winter outfits for autumn and winter months.