forecast-based financing early action protocol typhoon

Forecast-Based Financing

Early Action Protocol

TYPHOON

Philippines

Philippines Red Cross

Last update: 30/10/2019

Early Action Protocol Summary

Hazard TYPHOON

Potential high risk prone areas where the FbF mechanism could be activated *

A. North Luzon ➢ Provinces of Cagayan, Isabela, Aurora;

B. Bicol region ➢ Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, Catanduanes, Albay,

Sorsogon, Masbate, C. Western Visayas

➢ North Samar, East Samar, West Samar, Leyte, South Leyte, Cebu,

D. Mindanao ➢ Surigao del Norte, Surigao del Sur, Compostela Valley,

Davao Oriental

Prioritized risks to be tackled by early actions

1. Loss of income of farmers and fishermen 2. House damage due to the wind

Proposed Early Actions 1. Protection of livelihoods through early harvesting of crops, 2. Protection of livelihoods through evacuation of livestock & assets 3. Distribution of House Strengthening kits 4. (crosscutting) basic needs provision through Cash for Work

Potential No. of household to be reached

Between 1 000 (if only one province is activating) and 2 150 households (if three provinces are triggering Early Actions)

Expected activation budget 240,634.62 CHF

Forecast sources of information

PAGASA (but no automatic access at this stage), University College of London (UCL)

Expected lead time for activation

3 days

Responsible focal point for this EAP

Leonardo Ebajo (head of DMS)

Governmental coordinating agency

Expected season/months for activation*

Southwest Monsoon season (July-Oct) and North East Monsoon season (Nov-Jan)

* At the time of submitting this first version of the EAP, a number of activities (pre-screening

of beneficiaries, identification of evacuation centers, trainings on community engagement) are

still ongoing with the 12 chapters selected in 2019 (in red) – this means that the EAP might be

partially activated if a trigger is reached in these provinces, in the second half of 2019. This

EAP will be updated in June 2020 with the inclusion of additional provinces prone to typhoons.

Typhoon EAP – Philippines Red Cross 3

List of Acronyms

4P Pantawid Pamilyang Pilipino Program (Bridging Program for the Filipino

Family) ADB Asian Development Bank BARECOM Barangay Recovery Committee CA Chapter Administrator CHF Swiss Franc CRA Community Risk Assessment DA Department of Agriculture DENR Department of Environment and Natural Resources DILG Department of Interior and Local Government DMS Disaster Management Services DRCE Disaster Response Capacity Enhancement DREF Disaster Response Emergency Fund DRR Disaster Risk Reduction DRRM Disaster Risk Reduction & Management DSWD Department of Social Welfare and Development EAP Early Action Protocol ECMWF European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts ERU Emergency Response Unit FAO Food and Agriculture Organisation FbF Forecast based Financing GRC German Red Cross HH Household HQ Headquarter IEC Information Education Communication IFRC International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent JICA Japan International Cooperation Agency JMA Japanese Meteorological Agency JTWC Joint Typhoon Warning Center KII Key Informant Interview LDC Local Development Council LGU Local Government Unit MEAL Monitoring Evaluation Accountability and Learning NDRT National Disaster Response Team NOAA National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration OCD Office of Civil Defense ODK Open Data Kit OPCEN Operation Center PAGASA Philippines Athmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services

Administration PAR Philippines Area of Responsibility PCIC Philippines Crop Insurance Corporation PDNA Post Disaster Needs Assessment PDRA Pre Disaster Risk Assessment PhilFIDA Philippines Fiber Industry Development Authority PHP Philippino Peso PRC Philippines Red Cross PSA Philippines Statistics Authority RA Republic Act RCAT Red Cross Action Team RCCC Red Cross Climate Center


SG Secretary General SME Small and Medium Enterprise SSK Shelter Strengthening Kit STS Severe Tropical Storm STY Super Typhoon TC Tropical Cyclone TD Tropical Depression TWG Technical Working Group TY Typhoon UCL University College of London UNDP United Nations Development Programme

WFP World Food Programme

WPF Weather Philippines Foundation

WPNS Well Prepared National Society


CONTENT

1. Executive summary ....................................................................................................... 7

2. Key actors ........................................................................................................................ 8

3. Risk Analysis Summary ............................................................................................. 13

3.1 Hazard Selection ................................................................................................... 13

3.2 Historical disasters .............................................................................................. 16

3.3 Target areas for 2018 ........................................................................................... 17

3.4 Prioritization of Impacts ..................................................................................... 18

3.5 Exposure Analysis ............................................................................................... 22

3.6 Vulnerability Analysis ......................................................................................... 27

4. Trigger Model (Impact Forecasting model) .......................................................... 31

4.1 Menu and selection of Forecast ....................................................................... 31

4.2 When is the impact deemed critical ................................................................ 35

4.3 Justification of the trigger level ....................................................................... 38

5. Selection of Actions .................................................................................................... 41

5.1 Prioritized impact: rationale .............................................................................. 41

5.2 Early Action selection process ......................................................................... 41

5.3 Chosen early actions ........................................................................................... 45

5.4 Evidence based ..................................................................................................... 47

5.5 Analysis/ consequences of acting in vain ..................................................... 51

5.6 Selection of beneficiaries ................................................................................... 52

5.7 Feasibility ............................................................................................................... 53

6. Process of the implementation ................................................................................ 54

7. MEAL ............................................................................................................................... 57

8. National Society Early Action Capacity ................................................................. 58

8.1 General capacity ................................................................................................... 58

8.2 Human resources ................................................................................................. 61

8.3 Thematic capacities ............................................................................................. 61

8.3 Strategies and plans ............................................................................................ 62

9. Finance ........................................................................................................................... 63

9.1 Prepositioning ....................................................................................................... 63

9.2 Activation................................................................................................................ 63

10. Approval ..................................................................................................................... 64

11. Conclusion ................................................................................................................. 64


Annex list - 1. List of typhoon disasters which triggered a DREF/ Appeal - 2. Agriculture damages report for 2012-2018 events - 3. Forecasts study (WPF) - 4. Houses totally damaged data for target areas - 5. Presentation of 510 statistical model - 6. SSK Assessment Form - 7. SSK IEC material - 8. SSK list of material and costs - 9. Overview of the simulations -10. Shortlisted LGUs -11. BARECOM ToR -12. Alert & trigger messages -13. Detailed EAP protocols -14. Service contract -15. SSK post disaster assessment form -16. Detailed EAP budget (IFRC format) -17. Letter of approval


1. Executive summary This Typhoon Early Action Protocol (EAP) is a tool to guide the Philippines Red Cross (PRC) Society in implementing timely and effective anticipatory actions, when certain tropical cyclone forecasts show a high likelihood of a severe impact in the country. This protocol has been designed and will be implemented by the PRC Chapters in 19 targeted provinces (as for this first version of the EAP), and is meant to facilitate anticipatory actions of the PRC in four possible parts of the country:

Fig 1: four possible scenarios for typhoon Early Action This EAP provide step-by-step instructions for the selected actions to be implemented in a 3-days lead time, once activated. The typhoon Early Actions of the PRC will be triggered once the forecasted impact of the winds on housing, 72h before landfall, is more than 10% of houses predicted to be totally damaged in more than 3 municipalities. The EAP defines clearly: who takes what action when, where, and with what fund, at both headquarter and chapter levels. The EAP does not work in isolation. It is connected to already existing Disaster Risk Reduction and Management mechanisms – such as the Pre Disaster Risk Assessment (PDRA) meeting organized by the Provincial DRRM office prior to a typhoon landfall, which will feed the decision on which Early Actions the Chapter will chose. It ensures that early actions planned to be implemented in the window of time between the given forecast and the potential disaster event are carried out in a timely manner and successfully, in coordination with the concerned local authorities (at provincial, municipal, and barangay levels).


2. Key actors

For this Typhoon Early Action Protocol (EAP), the Philippines Red Cross (PRC) will be the main implementer, with the technical assistance from the German Red Cross (GRC), the Finnish Red Cross (FinnRC), and the 510 initiative of the Netherlands Red Cross (NLRC). As part of the development of this first version of the EAP, there were numerous contributors from the government side in the gathering of information as well as in the validation of the proposed Early Actions – from regional to local government units (see DRRM structure of the Philippines in figure 2). The constant involvement of those partners is deemed essential for the effectiveness, the scaling up and the sustainability of Forecast-based Actions in the Philippines. The key actors directly involved in this EAP are as follows: Philippine Red Cross (PRC) The Philippine Red Cross is a member of International Red Cross and Red Crescent Movement and was established in 1947. A premier humanitarian organization in the Philippines, with 108 chapters all over the country. With its large network of volunteers, PRC is well rooted locally: the volunteers are members of the communities they serve and also may be beneficiaries of RC activities. Through its vicinity to local communities as well as to governmental institutions, and through its experience in community based DRR, PRC is well situated to promote the implementation of DRR measures and their integration in local development plans. More particularly, since 1995, PRC has successfully implemented and completed more than 31 major disaster operations, related to geological, human made, hydrometeorological, and technological hazard – mostly for tropical cyclones (see in Annex 1). Implementation of the Forecast based Financing (FbF) project will support the PRC’s strategic plan (2017-2020), in particular to its first goal which intends to establish “safe and resilient communities”. FbF is being implemented under the Disaster Management Services (DMS), one of the major services of PRC. A team of 3 national staff, based in headquarters, is involved in the overall implementation, from conceptualizing the intervention, to the preparation of the Early Action Protocols (EAP), including the training of the targeted chapters. In addition to the DMS, several other major and support services of PRC are being engaged, like Emergency Response Unit (ERU), Finance Department, Social Services, Volunteer Services, Logistics Department, or Communications Department. They have been oriented on FbF, invited in key activities, and consulted in various technical matters. On the other hand, target PRC chapters have been actively engaged in the planning process and in the writing of the first EAP for typhoon, and will be in charge of the actual activation of the EAP. Mainly, the chapter does the coordination in the local level (regional, provincial, municipal, and barangay level), they conduct meetings, gather information, field visit, focus group discussion, key informant interviews, and all other related field activities. German Red Cross (GRC) GRC is a strong partner of PRC since 2007 and has been engaged along the PRC in various emergency operations – for instance after typhoon Fengshen (international name Frank) in 2008, or following typhoon Yolanda (Haiyan) in 2013. For FbF, GRC is providing technical and financial support for the overall piloting of the intervention in the country, from assessment, planning, activation, monitoring, and evaluation of the EAP. GRC is also ensuring the sharing of knowledge around FbF with all interested partners, among the Red Cross movement or externally. Finnish Red Cross (FinnRC)


The FinnRC has partnered with PRC in successfully implementing Disaster Risk Reduction projects. The FinnRC delegation in the Philippines is closely involved into FbF implementation, mainly in the development of the EAPs. This cooperation aims to share knowledge on FbF and consequently to promote implementation and use of FbF in additional countries. In addition, FinnRC will support the piloting of EAP in the Philippines via the funding of early actions. Red Cross Climate Center (RCCC) The RCCC supports the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC) in forecasting climate related risks and, thus, in improving protection of endangered population groups. As a partner in GRC‘s FbF pilot projects, the RCCC is mainly providing technical support aiming to improve use of meteorological data for triggering of the early actions, as well as in their evaluation. In the country, a Senior Policy Adviser and the Asia Pacific Regional Focal Point is present, supporting the team in coordinating with key actors at all levels – local, national, and international. International Federation of the Red Cross and Red Crescent (IFRC) Through its country delegation in Manila as well as its regional office in Kuala Lumpur, IFRC is informed of the FbF implementation in the Philippines and is involved in reviewing the Typhoon EAP, in coordinating its approval and in monitoring its activation in case the trigger level is reached. IFRC will facilitate the transfer of funds for the readiness, prepositioning and activation costs. Once if the EAP has been activated, IFRC will also be facilitating/supporting with the FbF EAP standard reporting. 510 initiative of the Netherlands Red Cross The data initiative of the Netherlands Red Cross became involved in the FbF project because of the Community Risk Assessment (CRA) tool they set up few years ago for the Philippines. This tool - which collects and integrates many risk-indicators at provincial and municipal level and visualizes all results easily through on online dashboard (https://dashboard.510.global) – will support the selection of target areas for Typhoon Early Actions (EA). Additionally, the 510 team has substantial experience and expertise in typhoon Impact Modeling, and their Typhoon statistical model will be the basis for triggering the typhoon Early Actions proposed in this EAP. World Food Programme (WFP) WFP started in July 2015, in the Philippines, a project called “WFP FORECAST” or Food Resiliency in Emergencies and Climate Change Adaptation Systems Tracking. This is part of the bigger initiative called “Forecast-Based Emergency Preparedness for Climate Risks” implemented by WFP in Bangladesh, Philippines, Nepal and Haiti/Dominican Republic, with funding from the German Federal Foreign Office. Ten (10) provinces were supported on the development of FbF Standards Operating Procedures (SOPs) clearly indicating the early warning, and early actions of Local Government Units for selected climatic hazards, including typhoon. Some of those provinces are also covered by the typhoon EAP of the Red Cross – Cagayan, Sorsogon, Compostela Valley and Davao Oriental – and synergies at provincial level were considered. TECHNICAL WORKING GROUP A TWG on FbF was initially created by WFP, during their pilot implementation of FbF. Now, together with PRC, the TWG has been expanded and is meeting regularly, on a quarterly basis. The TWG is expected to provide the FbF projects with technical guidance in terms of using scientific data for anticipatory response, adhering to national policies and guidelines (i.e., the disaster risk reduction management Act, the climate change adaptation Act, the Guidelines on the use of the LDRRM Fund), and establishing national standards for FbF that will ultimately support the replication of forecast-based early actions protocols at all government levels. This TWG is bringing together members of national governments responsible for hazard forecasting, emergency preparedness and response, as well as the UN and iNGOs involved in FbF (WFP, FAO, START

https://dashboard.510.global/


Network). The TWG is guiding the RCRC in the development of its EAPs and will contribute to the documentation and learning from the activation of Early Actions. Below are the key members of the TWG: Office of Civil Defense (OCD) It is the implementing arm of the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC), and has a primary task of administering a comprehensive national civil defense and disaster risk reduction and management program. They actively participate in meetings and presentation related to FbF, and as the implementing arm of the NDRRMC, they are the ones encouraging and ensuring participation and commitment of other key government agencies or members of the council. Department of Interior and Local Government (DILG) It is the executive department of the Philippine government responsible for promoting peace and order, ensuring public safety and strengthening local government capability aimed towards the effective delivery of basic services to the citizenry. They do the general supervision over local governments and the promotion of local autonomy and community empowerment and monitoring of compliance. They created an advocacy program, “Operation Listo”, which aims to strengthen disaster preparedness of LGUs using the whole-of-government approach. Then, it led to the creation and dissemination of the Disaster Preparedness Manual, emphasizing the measures to do before, during, and after disasters. There is strong coordination with DILG to align FbF into the “Operation Listo”, since it is the main document being followed by the LGUs in preparing for impending threats. As of this moment, there is no concrete alignment with FbF, since “Operation Listo” has recently been updated, but discussion has already been initiated. Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) The national institution is dedicated to provide flood and typhoon warnings, public weather forecasts and advisories, meteorological, astronomical, climatological, and other specialized information and services primarily for the protection of life and property and in support of economic, productivity and sustainable development. Since the PRC is focusing on typhoon for its first EAP, PAGASA weather division is expected to play a major role in providing the forecasts that will support Early Action triggers. At the time of writing this EAP, discussions are taking place with PAGASA for accessing their typhoon forecasts and using them in the 510 statistical model. Department of Social Welfare and Development (DSWD) DSWD-Disaster Response Assistance and Management Bureau (DREAMB) is responsible for activating the disaster response pillar during disaster response operations to monitor and provide immediate response to the needs of the disaster-affected population. Similarly, they created Predictive Analytics, use to predict the number of affected people before the onset of disaster. As of this moment, for the pilot implementation, no concrete discussion took place yet on how to align Predictive Analytics into the trigger mechanism of FbF.

They are as well being consulted in the creation of EAP, especially regarding early actions involving cash, since, from the national agencies, they are the one implementing cash transfer program. PRC way of implementing cash transfer is different from how DSWD is doing it, so discussion prior is being done, to prevent conflicting actions. Moreover, since they are catering the sectors of children and youth, women, indigenous people, persons with disability, senior citizens, families and communities, reputable data source is coming from their office, which PRC can use.


Department of Agriculture (DA): responsible for the promotion of agricultural and fisheries development and growth. DA is a key partner for the development of the Typhoon EAP as farmers and fisherfolk are some of the targeted groups for the typhoon Early Actions of the Red Cross. Commission on Audit (COA): in charge for the check and balance of the expenses made by the key players in line with the Approved EAP. Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO): their Early Warning Early Action (EWEA) project focuses on food security for drought, targeting 2 municipalities in Mindanao. FAO is an active member of the FbF Technical Working Group and has funding for supporting implementation of drought early actions. A regional project funded by ECHO shall allow FAO to contribute further to Early Actions in the Philippines in 2019-2020, including for typhoons. CARE International: with an FbF component in metro Manila under the Partners for Resilience (PfR) project, in addition to a coordination role for the START Network in the Philippines, CARE international can play a key role in supporting FbF implementation among the civil society in the country. Oxfam: a pilot FbF project, called B Ready, was officially launched in January 2019. It is piloted in the municipality of Salcedo, in East Samar, and will support anticipatory cash transfer to 2 000 vulnerable households ahead of a typhoon landfall. CORE GROUP ON EAP DEVELOPMENT Imperative to the implementation of the EAP, the Early Actions should be selected in a collaborative manner at provincial level, and all details must be agreed by all key actors involved in order to have a smooth implementation. In this sense, a core group has been established at regional and provincial levels. The core group in each targeted zone is expected to provide the necessary technical guidance to concerned chapters in developing and implementing the EAP. Below are members of core group from government and non-government agencies/organizations: Regional: Office of Civil Defense (OCD) Department of Interior and Local Government (DILG) Department of Agriculture Provincial: Provincial Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council Provincial Planning and Development Office

Provincial Budget / Accounting Office Provincial Engineering Office

Provincial Social Welfare and Development Office Office of the Provincial Agriculturist (OPAG) Provincial Veterinary Office

Provincial Fisheries Office Philippine Fiber Industry Development Authority (PhilFIDA) Commission on Audit

Department of Public Works and Highways (DPWH) Department of Education (DepEd) PAGASA Municipal/city: selected Local Government Units


Fig 2: Philippines DRRM framework

National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC)

Regional Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (RDRRMC)

Municipal/ city LGU

Barangay DRRM Committee

Provincial LGU

Regional OCD

DILG OCD Phil. Red Cross DSWD DOH …

Provincial Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (PDRRMC)

Municipal Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (MDRRMC)

DILG …

NEDA DepEd

DILG PRC chapter …

Barangay LGU

LSWDO …

warning communication evacuation transport security medical rescue

Barangay Development Council

relief DANA logistic

NEDA DSWD DOST

Provincial Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Office (PDRRMO)

Admin & training

Research & planning

Operation & warning

Municipal Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Office (MDRRMO)

Admin & training

Research & planning

Operation & warning

DA

RC 143 volunteer


3. Risk Analysis Summary

3.1 Hazard Selection “Tropical Cyclone” (TC) is the general term referring to revolving weather disturbance that develops in the tropics. It can be a Tropical Depression (TD), a Tropical Storm (TS), a Severe Tropical Storm (STS), a Typhoon (TY) or a Super Typhoon (STY) depending on the maximum sustained winds near the center. It is the most frequent hazard in the Philippines, with the highest human and economic impact, followed by floods (see figure 3). While a tropical cyclone can have direct impact through its powerful winds or rains, indirect impacts may occur due to secondary hazards (storm surge, landslide, and flood), which would compound the overall effects of TCs in the country. An average of 19 to 20 TCs enters the Philippines Area of Responsibility (PAR) every year with over 9 to 10 TCs that make landfall and directly impact the country, half of them being categorized as typhoon1. TC formation over the country is most common from July to October (wet season) while least common from January to April (dry season) (see figure 4). Historical TC data indicates that higher TC categories are more prominent during the last quarter of the year due to the build-up of energy over West Pacific, and more likely to make landfall (see figure 5). The usual pattern is that, as the cyclone season progresses, and as the country transitions from the Southwest monsoon (habagat) to the Northeast monsoon (amihan), the incidence of TCs appears to move from the north to the central area and then to the south of the country.

Fig 3: measuring the impact of Philippine disasters, 1901-2015 (Source: EMDAT-CRED)

1 Observed trends and impacts of Tropical Cyclones in the Philippines, Cinco et al., 2016

Category Sustained winds

Super Typhoon (STY) ≥119 knots ≥220 km/h

Typhoon (TY) 64–119 knots 118–220 km/h

Severe Tropical Storm 48–63 knots 89–117 km/h

Tropical Storm 34–47 knots 62–88 km/h

Tropical Depression ≤33 knots ≤61 km/h

Tropical Cyclone Intensity Scale

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Knot_(unit)






Fig 4: Source Japan Meteorological Agency

Fig 5: Source Japan Meteorological Agency

As the Philippines are ranked as the 3rd most exposed and disaster-prone country in the world by the World Risk Index, behind two Pacific Small Island Developing States, with high exposure to hydrometeorological hazards, Forecast-based Early Actions can contribute further to the efforts of the government in typhoon risk management, in complement of longer term DRR interventions. Despite the short lead time for implementing Typhoon Early Actions, the Philippines Disaster Risk Reduction Management (DRRM) stakeholders have gained through the recent decades an extended experience on actions that can be implemented prior to typhoon, using local DRRM funding.


After Tropical Storm Ondoy (Ketsana) and Typhoon Pepeng (Parma) hit Metro Manila in Sept 2009, the Republic Act (RA) 10121 – or the Philippine Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Act of 2010 – was enacted into law, with the objective of helping the country shift from a response-oriented approach to a more holistic Disaster Risk Reduction and Management (DRRM) approach, and of restructuring the national and local institutions to be more pro-active to the actual risks faced by the country. As per the Republic Act 10121: all provinces, cities and municipalities must establish a DRRM Office, with a DRRM Officer in charge, and must “formulate and implement a comprehensive and integrated LDRRM Plan in accordance with the national, regional and provincial framework, and policies on disaster risk reduction, in close coordination with the local development councils (LDCs)". This Plan shall detail the use of the Local DRRM Fund (LDRRMF) which can be one source of funding for pre-disaster activities. Furthermore, the learnings from STY Yolanda (Haiyan, November 2013) have led the Department of Interior and Local Government (DILG-LGA) to establish the L!STO protocol2 which presents the minimum actions required for the TC-prone Local Government Units (LGUs), 48 hours before landfall. These minimum preparedness requirements are now well disseminated in the country and have more specifically contributed to the systematic pre-emptive evacuations in the LGUs part of the “Charlie” zone (see fig 6), 24 hours before impact.

Fig 6: source DILG Building up on the L!STO protocol and on the RA 10121, the Forecast based Financing initiatives of the Red Cross can help testing and expanding the range of possible Early Actions of LGUs and partners, prior to the impact of a typhoon. As a matter of facts, the OCD issued on June 17, 2019, the Revised Guidelines for the declaration of a State of Calamity (Memorandum Order n° 60, s. 2019) which for the first time allows Local Government Units (LGUs) to refer to a predicted impact for accessing the Quick Response Fund: “At least fifteen percent (15%) of the forecasted affected population based on science-based projection are in need of emergency assistance.”

2 Disaster Preparedness Manual – checklist of minimum critical preparation for mayors, DILG-LGA, V2, 2015.


3.2 Historical disasters

Year Date TC local name (int’l

name) Strength of the

event Areas Affected

No of casualties

HH totally damaged

Agriculture loss (php)

2018 Sept 15 Ompong (Mangkhut) Typhoon North Luzon 82 24 827

2017 Dec 20 Vinta (Tembin) Tropical Storm Mindanao 165 3 641

2016 Dec 25 Nina (Nock Ten)

Typhoon – 195 kmh

Bicol 3 70 000

4.13 B

Oct 19 Lawin (Haima)

Typhoon – 215 kmh

North Luzon 23 42 384

1.015 B

2015 Dec 14 Nona (Melor)

Typhoon – 175 kmh

East. Visayas & Bicol

42 110 036

4.33 B

Oct 19 Lando (Koppu)

Typhoon – 160 kmh

Central Luzon 48 18 795

8.62 B

2014 Dec 4 Ruby (Hagupit) Typhoon – 165 kmh

East. Visayas 18 42 727

3.6 B

July 15 Glenda (Rammasun) Typhoon – 165 kmh

East. Visayas & Bicol

114 474 6 B

2013 Nov 8 Yolanda (Haiyan) STY – 271 kmh

East Visayas 6 300 550 928 3.3 B

Oct 11 Santi (Nari)

Typhoon Central Luzon 15 10 491

Aug 10 Labuyo (Utor)

Typhoon Central Luzon 11 2 593

2012 Dec 4 Pablo (Bopha)

STY Mindanao 1 146 89 666

26.5 B

2011 Dec 17 Sendong (Washi) Tropical storm - Mindanao 1 268 14 883 304 M

Sept 27 Pedring (Nesat) Typhoon Central Luzon 83 7 213

2010 Oct 18 Juan (Megi)

STY North Luzon 30 048

July 13 Basyang (conson) Typhoon Central Luzon 79 3 691

2009 Oct Pepeng (Parma) Typhoon North Luzon 6 253

Sept Ondoy (Ketsana) Tropical Storm Central Luzon 465 30 082

2008 June Fengshen (Frank) typhoon Visayas 557 92 129

2006 Nov 28 Reming (Durian) Typhoon Bicol 715 217 667

Sept 30 Milenyo (Xangsane) Typhoon East. Visayas & Bicol

188 118 081

2004 Nov 30 Winnie Tropical depression

Central Luzon 8 889

Nov 21 Unding Typhoon Bicol 36 011

122 M

1995 Nov Rosing Typhoon East. Visayas & Mindanao

225 872

Note: all those events triggered an emergency response of the Philippines Red Cross, which was either funded by a DREF or an APPEAL – see details in Annex 1.

While developing this first version of the typhoon EAP in 2018, 21 Tropical Cyclones (TCs) were recorded over the year in the Philippines Area of Responsibility (PAR), with only the months of April and May being spared by TCs. From these 21 TCs, 8 were categorized as typhoons, with 2 of them


making landfall: on Sept 15, 2018, the country was hit by typhoon Ompong (international name Mangkhut) then on Oct 30, 2018, by typhoon Rosita (Yutu), both in the northern provinces of Luzon. If typhoon Ompong triggered a DREF request and an Appeal, the impact of typhoon Rosita remained limited.

3.3 Target areas for 2018 Historical trends on tropical cyclone frequency reveal that there is a higher risk of Tropical Cyclones over Northern Luzon, with an average of 2 cyclones per year making landfall in the northern provinces of Cagayan and Isabela (see fig 8), while the Tropical Cyclone risk is much lower in Mindanao island which is closer to the equator (see fig 7).

Fig 7: track of the tropical cyclones from 1970-2014 (source: Return period and pareto analyses of 45 years of tropical cyclone data (1970-2014) in the Philippines, Rudolf Espada)


Fig 8-9: cyclone frequency (source: Cinco et al., 2016) and climatic risk map (source: DENR) Though the tropical cyclones are more frequent over Northern Luzon, their impact is generally heavier in the National Capital Region (NCR) and in South Luzon (Bicol region), where the population and key productive sectors (Agriculture, industries, SMEs) are concentrated, as well as in East Visayas or Mindanao where vulnerabilities to climatic hazards are the highest – see also section 3.6. The initial areas targeted in 2018 were the provinces of Camarines Sur, Camarines Norte, Catanduanes, East Samar, North Samar and Samar; this selection was taking into consideration the higher probability of these provinces to being hit during the end of the year, their higher vulnerabilities as well as the experience of the PRC chapters in Bicol and Eastern Visayas in recent typhoon emergency responses (such as for typhoons Yolanda, Glenda, Ruby, Nona, and Nina). Furthermore, it was decided in 2019 to involve 12 additional at-risk provinces allowing the PRC to have a national scope approach to respond in anticipation of typhoons, namely: Cagayan, Isabela, Aurora, Albay, Sorsogon, Masbate, Cebu, Leyte, South Leyte, Surigao del Norte, Surigao del Sur, Davao Oriental. The province of Compostela Valley, initially involved in the preparation of a Flood Early Action Protocol is also being included in this EAP, making it applicable in a total of 19 provinces.

3.4 Prioritization of Impacts The impacts of typhoons in the Philippines are numerous and may be due either to the extreme winds or to the heavy rains, as well as to the associated hazards (storm surge, floods and landslides). While typhoons occurring during the Southwest monsoon will tend to induce more rains – for example typhoon Glenda (Rammasun, July 2014) – the typhoons occurring during the Northeast monsoon are often dryer and have a higher probability of extreme windspeed – for example super typhoons Yolanda (Haiyan, Nov 2013) or Pablo (Bopha, Dec 2012).


The most extreme typhoons may lead to significant loss of lives (see the human impact from tropical cyclones recorded between 1990-2012 on fig 10), but after typhoon Yolanda (Haiyan) caused the loss of more than 6 300 lives in November 2013 – making it the deadliest typhoon in the Philippines’ history – it must be noted that the last five years have recorded much lower number of casualties, a positive trend which can be explained by the application of the preemptive evacuations recommended by the L!STO protocol of the DILG, 24h ahead of a typhoon landfall.

Fig 10: source UNISDR

Generally, the extreme winds and rains brought by typhoons have a significant impact on the national economy and more particularly on the agriculture sector which accounted for 63% of the total reported disaster losses between 1990 and 20063 – see also the Tropical Cyclone Disaster Impact recorded till 2012 in fig 11. These losses are encompassing not only the loss of production (e.g. crops), but also the loss of livestock or material (such as irrigation systems, or tools). More particularly for the fisheries subsector, the losses are not only those sustained by small scale fisherfolk but also by the aquaculture sector – during typhoon Yolanda (Haiyan) for instance, key aquaculture infrastructure was destroyed including oyster rafts, crab, shrimp and mussel farms, as well as inland tilapia cages, hatcheries and fish ponds. Additionally, around 16,500 seaweed farmers lost their livelihoods4. From 2004 to 2010, agriculture and fisheries were contributing an average of 18.4 % to gross domestic product (GDP) and were employing an average of 11.8 million people, almost 35.1 % of the total work force of the country5. The latest PSA selected statistics on Agriculture (2018) state that the agriculture sector employed 10.26 million persons in 2017, so around 25.4 % of the national employment, while the sector is now contributing to only 8.49 % of the national GDP.

3 Typhoon Recovery and Resilience in the Visayas, UNDP 2013 4 http://www.fao.org/news/story/en/item/209889/icode/ 5 Impact of natural disasters on Agriculture, Food security, and environment in the Philippines, ERIA, 2013

http://www.fao.org/news/story/en/item/209889/icode/


Fig 11: source Disaster Impact Data, JICA The impact of typhoons on the livelihoods of farmers and fisherfolk will lead to a significant loss of income and consequently, for the most vulnerable, to the adoption of negative coping mechanisms such as (i) taking on additional or temporary jobs outside their province; (ii) reducing food consumption, (iii) taking on multiple loans, including for basic expenditures, or in extreme situations, (iv) taking their children out of school because they can no longer afford the tuition fees, or so the children can work to support their family. Additionally, typhoons may impact the commercial sector, especially in urban context. For example during the successive TS Ondoy (Ketsana) & TY Pepeng (Parma) in 2009: while the Agriculture loss & damages amounted nearly 19.4% of total losses and damages, and the Housing loss & damages amounted 16.6% of the total, the impact on the commercial sector was much higher for that particular succession of disasters (43.3% of total losses & damages) – source PDNA. The rest of the losses and damages was on the major infrastructures (and the industrial sector). Then, particularly during the northeast monsoon season, the impact on housing is becoming much more predominant:

➢ In November 1995, Super typhoon Rosing (Angela) destroyed 225,872 houses and damaged

another 641,718 houses, mainly in the Bicol region.

➢ End of 2006, four typhoons impacted the Philippines in a span of 10 weeks – from typhoon Milenyo (Xangsane) in September, to typhoon Paeng (Cimaron) in October, typhoon Reming (Durian) end of November, and typhoon Seniang (Utor) in December. In total 357,824 houses were totally damaged in seven regions by the successive typhoons – of which 228,436 houses totally damaged by typhoon Reming, and 118,081 houses by typhoon Milenyo. Region five (Bicol region) sustained the largest share of total damages.

➢ In July 2008, typhoon Fengshen (Frank) caused the total destruction of 92,129 houses, of which 60% in the West Visayas region and 20% in East Visayas.


➢ In December 2012, super typhoon Pablo (Bopha) made landfall in Mindanao, leading to the total destruction of 89,666 houses.

➢ When STY Yolanda (Haiyan) hit the Visayas region in November 2013, the social sector

damages amounted for 61% of the total losses, while the loss on Agriculture amounted for 24% of total losses (source: NDRRMC update, April 2014). Four million people saw their homes severely damaged or destroyed (550,000 houses destroyed, and an additional 580,000 houses were severely damaged).

One possible factor leading to a higher level of destruction in certain years (see fig 12), aside from the extreme severity of the winds (for super typhoons), or the succession of typhoons in a short period of time (like in 2006), is when typhoons hit areas with higher houses’ vulnerabilities – like the Bicol region, the Visayas islands, or Mindanao.

Fig 12: source Disaster Impact Data, JICA The typhoons can also impact other sectors:

❖ Disease outbreak is another impact that can be expected after the occurrence of a typhoon, especially if health facilities have sustained significant damages, and if many affected people are displaced in temporary evacuation centers, living in crowded and sometimes unhygienic areas with poor water quality and lack of food. For example, IFRC reported a Leptospirosis outbreak in Mindanao after tropical storm Sendong (Washi) in Dec 20126; while after typhoon Yolanda (Haiyan, Nov 2013), authorities and humanitarian community had developed rapid response plans for potential outbreaks of acute diarrhea and dengue, but only recorded only a minor dengue outbreak in Leyte province. Little evidence is available on this particular impact, which seems to be minor in the context of the Philippines.

6 https://www.ifrc.org/fr/nouvelles/nouvelles/asia-pacific/philippines/a-deadly-disease-outbreak-in-mindanao-underlines-vulnerability-of-typhoon-affected/

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

350000

400000

Houses totally damaged due to tropical cyclones


❖ the education sector is also highly exposed7 and regularly impacted with for example in 2013, 32% of the elementary schools reporting being hit by a typhoon once, and 35% being hit two or more times, while 30% of secondary schools reported being hit by a typhoon once and 38% more than once (source Rappler). In November 2013, Typhoon Yolanda (Haiyan) alone damaged a total of 3,171 schools; in 2018, the successive typhoons Ompong (Mangkhut) and Rosita (Yutu) impacted a total of 989 schools (source Philippines HCT). Not only school buildings may sustain severe damages during extreme events, which would disrupt the schooling for an extended time till buildings are repaired and equipment fixed or replaced; but most of the schools are used as evacuation centers, where families are authorized to stay for at most two weeks, sometimes more if those families have no shelter to go back to after a typhoon, which consequently would also delay the reopening of the infrastructure..

❖ Access to services (transport, potable water, electricity, waste management, bank, telecoms) will be disrupted due to typhoon winds and rainfalls; this can further exacerbate the other impacts as in many cases, the access to the affected areas will be made difficult by possible landslides or floods, and the restoration of the services will take time.

❖ Natural environment (mangroves, corals, forests, shallow aquifers): though environmental impact is usually not evaluated, typhoons will deteriorate major ecosystems either directly or indirectly, having a long-term impact on economy and quality of life. In urban areas, debris will become a major issue post-disaster, and needs to be managed adequately to minimize the impact on natural environment.

Reducing loss of lives was considered as one of the main priorities by the stakeholders involved in the selection of the Early Actions – see the Theory of Change in section 5.2 – however, since the Philippines government is actively supporting preemptive evacuations (which contribute to saving lives), it was decided that this action is sufficiently covered by other actors. The impact on the commercial sector can become significant, in particular in urban settings, but due to the wide range of actors, it is preferred to target this particular sector after further analysis of their needs, in 2020. Hence, based on the experience of the Philippines Red Cross in past decades, and looking at the priority impacts, it was decided that the Early Actions of the PRC in this first version of the typhoon EAP shall address the second and third most important impacts: (i) the loss of income of farmers and fisherfolk, and (ii) the damages to houses.

3.5 Exposure Analysis As the prioritized impacts of typhoons are those pertaining to (i) the Agriculture and to (ii) the Housing sectors, the elements at risk which shall be targeted by the Early Actions of the Red Cross are the farmers and the fishermen, as well as the weak shelters.

Regarding the agriculture sector, the crop subsector is the one which recorded the highest economic losses8, followed by fisheries and livestock, with the farmers cultivating rice and corn being the most affected by typhoons. It must be noted that the exposure of those standing crops to typhoon impacts vary locally and depending on the season. It is assumed that not all farmers plant their crops at the same time and that certain farmers will be more exposed than others, depending on the time they do the planting, or depending on the location of their fields. The country produces 23% of its total rice

7 in schoolyear 2015-2016, nearly 16.5 million kindergarten and primary pupils enrolled in about 49,600 elementary schools while 7.35 million students were enrolled in about 13,500 secondary schools. 8 See Annex 2 – Agriculture damage per calamity (2012-2018), source: Department of Agriculture.


production in the first quarter of the year, 21% in the second, 16% in the third, and 40% in the fourth9, corresponding to the first cropping’s harvesting time. Moreover, the critical period for those crops is at the planting and at the flowering times (see fig 13). For example, typhoon Yolanda (Haiyan) in November 2013 hit the country just as farmers were harvesting the main season crop10.

Fig 13: crop calendar (source FAO and NOAA) From 2007-2011, the highest losses on rice production due to typhoons were recorded in Region III, region II and region I (source: Israel, 2012). These higher losses in the North of the Philippines are due to the fact that those regions are (i) the most exposed to tropical cyclones and (ii) are also among the main producers in terms of rice and corn – see fig 14. Aside from rice and corn, the main crops impacted by typhoons are:

▪ Abaca: according to the Philippine Fiber Industry Development Authority, the Philippines provided 87.4% of the world's abaca in 2014, the remainder came from Ecuador (12.5%) and Costa Rica (0.1%). The Bicol region is the largest producer in the Philippines, with a 39% share of Philippine abaca production in 2009-2013, 92% of it coming from Catanduanes Island. Eastern Visayas, the second largest producer, had 24% and the Davao Region, the third largest producer had 11% of the total production. On 25 December 2016, typhoon Nina (Nock-ten) damaged 72.4% of the 32,012.48 hectares of Abaca in the province of Catanduanes, affecting a total of 13,529 farmers (source: PDNA PhilFIDA), the majority of them being owner of farms of less than 1 Ha or marginal growers.

▪ Coconut: according to figures published in December 2015 by the Food and Agriculture Organization, the Philippines is the world's largest producer of coconuts, producing 19,500,000 tons in 2015. According to the Philippine Coconut Authority (PCA), Mindanao is the first producer of coconut with 56% of the national production, followed by the Eastern Visayas region. In November 2013, over 10% of the 340 million trees in the country were destroyed by Typhoon Yolanda (Haiyan), mainly in Samar, Leyte and the Western Visayas11.

▪ Banana: in 2010, the Philippines was in the top three producing countries for banana, which is one of the top agricultural export of the country with coconut oil (source: Philippines

9 source:http://www.philrice.gov.ph/libraryweb/index.php/article/43/Philrice 10 source: https://www.cnbc.com/2013/11/22/philippines-facing-new-crisis-over-rice-.html 11 https://www.manilatimes.net/yolanda-cocolisap-and-coconuts/106793/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Philippine_Fiber_Industry_Development_Authority

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bicol_region

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Catanduanes

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Food_and_Agriculture_Organization

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Food_and_Agriculture_Organization

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Banana

http://www.philrice.gov.ph/libraryweb/index.php/article/43/Philrice

https://www.cnbc.com/2013/11/22/philippines-facing-new-crisis-over-rice-.html


Agricultural Exports at a glance, Feb 2012). Davao region contributes to 37.3% of the total banana production, and Northern Mindanao to 20.3% in 2018. When typhoon Pablo (Bopha) hit Mindanao in December 2012, it destroyed 10 000 Ha of Banana plantations (nearly 25 % of the national production), mainly in Compostela Valley and Davao del Norte provinces.

Fig 14: (a) 2017 rice production and (b) 2017 Corn production. The fisheries subsector is providing employment to over 1.6 million people, 85% of whom are from the municipal fisheries (marine and inland), 1% from commercial fisheries (include all fishing operations that use vessels of over 3.1 GT), while the aquaculture sector employs 14%. In value, it is the aquaculture sector that contributes the higher share of the total fish production (41% in value), while the municipal fisheries contribute to 34% of the total fish production, and the commercial fisheries to 25%. The main producing provinces are Palawan, Tawi Tawi and Sulu for aquaculture (respectively 15.1%, 13.6% and 10% of the total production), Palawan, Masbate and Tawi Tawi for marine municipal fishery (respectively 11%, 4.5% and 4.4%), while South Cotabato, Zamboanga city and Metro Manila are contributing to respectively 24.2%, 15% and 9% of the commercial fisheries12. Fishing activities in the Philippines – either at sea or inland – are regularly impacted by typhoons, with a significant loss of income caused by the suspension of fishing activities several days prior and after any TC occurrence, by the reduction of catches, or in most extreme events, by the damage and loss of fishing equipment. With regard to livestock, the main livestock production13 is the swine (2 120 metric tons), followed by

12 Source: fisheries statistics 2015-2017, PSA 13 Selected statistics on Agriculture (PSA, 2016)


the cattle (266.9 metric tons). Then the smaller livestock productions are carabao (water buffalo) and goat, with respectively 142 and 77.5 metric tons produced in 2015. It must be noted that 65% of the swine production is covered by backyard farming (which is defined by a farm having less than 21 pigs), mainly in western and central Visayas, as well as in Bicol and Davao regions – see fig 15. The cattle production has a higher share (93%) in backyard systems (1 to 5 heads of cattle), principally in Ilocos region, in CALABARZON, then in West and Central Visayas – see fig 16. For both goat and carabaos, the production is at 99% in backyard farming. Backyard farming is an important source of extra income, savings and food (meat, milk, eggs) for vulnerable groups, and would be more severely impacted by typhoons.

Fig 15: Distribution of swine in backyard farms by region as of Jan 2017 (PSA, 2018)

Fig 16: Distribution of cattle in backyard farms by region as of Jan 2017 (PSA, 2018) According to the Philippines statistics data, there has been a decline in production of crops (0.98%) and fisheries (1.13%) in 2018, which the Department of Agriculture attributed to the impact of tropical


cyclones in the country14, while the livestock and poultry subsectors grew by respectively 1.89% and 5.75%. The assumption is that livestock are less vulnerable to the effects of extreme weather events because animals can be moved to safe environments, and provided with supplemental feed15. The number of registered farmers and fisherfolk were extracted from the census data (PSA, 2015), for all provinces and municipalities, and reported to the population data– see Fig 17.

Fig 17: % of farmers, forestry and fishermen (source 510 dashboard) With regard to the housing sector, the most exposed population would be the one on the coastal areas, where over 60% of the population in the Philippines lives. Coastal areas are more exposed to high winds, storm surges and floods. Densely inhabited provinces on coastal areas are thus more exposed to typhoon risks.

14 https://www.bworldonline.com/farm-output-growth-misses-2018-goal/ 15 Understanding climate change impacts on water buffalo production through farmers’ perceptions (Climate Risk Management 20, 2018).

Cagayan: 68,685 rice farmers & 29,808 corn farmers

Isabela: 65,566 rice farmers & 52,849 corn farmers

Nueva Ecija: 108,005 rice farmers

Cam. Sur: 61,107 rice farmers 19,251 municipal fishermen

Leyte: 58,068 rice farmers 19,228 municipal fishermen

https://www.bworldonline.com/farm-output-growth-misses-2018-goal/


Fig 18: population density

3.6 Vulnerability Analysis With regard to the prioritized impacts, the typhoon Early Action Protocol (EAP) will target:

➢ the vulnerable farmers (rice, corn, abaca) as well as smallholders of livestock; ➢ the fishing communities involved in small-scale “municipal” fisheries or in aquaculture; ➢ or the people living in lightweight material houses.

Most vulnerable farmers are those with lower assets or resources – being either the tenant in charge of farms of less than 1 ha, or the agricultural daily laborers, who would be left without income in case their farms are hit by typhoons. These specific vulnerabilities are not available at national level but two vulnerability indicators can serve as proxies (both are included in the 510 dashboard):

❖ The highest percentage of the poor, work in agriculture and forestry (52.49%) followed by fishing (8.83%), wholesale and retail trade (6.76%), and construction (6.55%). In more than 70% of poor households, the head is employed as a farmer, forestry worker, fisher, laborer, or unskilled worker (ADB 2009). Hence, the poverty indicator can be used to identify areas where impact of a typhoon may be more significant;


❖ Pantawid Pamilyang Pilipino Program (Bridging Program for the Filipino Family, better known as the 4Ps) is a social support program of the Department for Social Welfare and Development. The program provides conditional cash transfers to the poorest families with children who are under the age of fourteen at the time of registration (which takes place every four years). The number of recipients of 4P assistance is often used as a shorthand for poverty levels at a municipal or barangay level; however, since it targets families with children under 14, there are many vulnerable households which do not qualify.

Fig 19: map of (a) poverty incidence and (b) 4Ps beneficiaries at province level (source 510 dashboard) These figures are showing that among the most exposed provinces to typhoon, poverty is higher in the South of Luzon island (Camarines Sur, Sorsogon, Masbate), in East Visayas provinces (North Samar, East Samar and West Samar), and in the mountain provinces of North Luzon (Apayao, Ifugao). Among the farmers exposed to typhoons, those using irrigation systems are able to get more rice yields over the year (with the possibility of a third cropping) and are assumed to be less economically impacted by extreme weather than farmers producing rainfed rice. This capacity (proportion of agricultural land serviced by irrigation facility) is also included in the 510 dashboard. House vulnerability is determined in the 510 dashboard by the type of material being used for the walls and for the roof. The main types of construction materials used in the Philippines are concrete, brick and stone (37%), half strong material & wood (21%), wood (20%), and light materials such as bamboo, sawali, cogon and nipa (20%) (source: PSA 2007). Latest statistics (PSA 2015) are giving indication on houses built with the light material (for example wood and bamboo for wall, or nipa for roof) being mostly used in the southern provinces, as shown in figure 20.


Fig 20: maps for (a) type of roof and (b) type of wall (source: 510 dashboard) One additional vulnerability related to the impact on housing has been included in the 510 dashboard: % of households occupying lot rent-free – see Fig 21. This indicator, provided by the PSA 2015 is a proxy for illegal settlements which is a major concern in the Philippines. It is assumed that post-typhoon, a number of illegal settlers will not be tolerated anymore on the land or in the house they have been occupying, either because it is highly prone to disasters or because the owner doesn’t agree, and might be asked to find another place to stay.

Fig 21: % of households occupying lot rent free (source: 510 dashboard)


The three maps (type of roof, type of wall, occupying lot rent-free) are pointing at the Visayas and Mindanao to be the areas where house vulnerabilities are the highest. Combined vulnerabilities at provincial level is presented below and while typhoon exposure is higher in the Northern provinces, vulnerabilities are higher in the South.

Fig 22: combined vulnerabilities at provincial level (source: 510 dashboard) The 510 dashboard is providing the same information at the municipal level (for all of the 1,600 municipalities), which can support the selection of the municipalities where to intervene in anticipation of a typhoon. See in Fig 23 the example of the combined vulnerabilities levels in the municipalities of Camarines Sur province.

Fig 23: combined vulnerabilities at municipal level (source: 510 dashboard)


4. Trigger Model (Impact Forecasting model)

4.1 Menu and selection of Forecast The skill of typhoon forecasts was analyzed by Weather Solutions (Forecasts scoping study, Aug 2018, see Annex 3), for all the TCs forecasted by Weather Philippines Foundation (WPF) from 2014 to 2017, and was complemented by a study of additional forecast models by the 510 team of the Netherlands Red Cross, for the period 2005- 2017.

Institution Link Model Update Interval (hour)

Lead Time (days)

24h Forecast Accuracy (%)



Meteo France Global (PEARP)

59 60 59

UK-MO Global (MOGREPS)

58 58 59

European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)

https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/charts/tcyclone/

global 12 10 60 60 61

National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)

Global (CENS)

57 57 58

Global (GEFS) 67 52 52

Joint Typhoon Warning center (JTWC)

http://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/

Regional 6 5 - - -

Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA)

http://www.jma.go.jp/jma/indexe.html

Global (GEPS) & Regional

6 5 58 59 61

PAGASA https://www1.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/

Local 3 5 54 63 63

Weather Philippines Foundation (WPF)

https://weatherph.org/

Local 6 5 63 72 72

Table 1: menu of forecasts (24-hour, 48-hour, and 72-hour TCs’ track accuracy) From the analysis of forecasts skills, we can see that the typhoon track forecasts at 3-days have an accuracy ranging from 58-72%, with a typhoon track error close to 300 km in average, which is deemed sufficient for deciding to launch Early Actions in a particular region/ province. The track error decreases progressively, with a track error of 210 km in average at 48h, then close to 110 km at 24h – see the values in table 2 and in figure 24. It is worth also noting that the TC magnitude FAR value is of 40% at 72h, for Weather PHL forecasts. Although our analysis is showing that the GEFS (Global Ensemble Forecast System) of NOAA is the best model with the lowest track error (at 72, 48 and 24h) and lowest variance, PAGASA’s forecasts are intended to be used for triggering the typhoon Early Actions.






For the 6 hours forecast, it is the Japan models (used by PAGASA) which are performing better.

Model

lead time in hr

6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60 66 72 A

vera

ge T

rack

Erro

r(km

)

Acc

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cy in

%

Ave

rage

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ck

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)

Acc

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%

Ave

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Ave

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)

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Ave

rage

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ck

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r(km

)

Acc

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%

Ave

rage

Tra

ck

Erro

r(km

)

Acc

ura

cy in

%

Ave

rage

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ck

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r(km

)

Acc

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%

Ave

rage

Tra

ck

Erro

r(km

)

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%

Ave

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)

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%

Ave

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)

Acc

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%

Ave

rage

Tra

ck

Erro

r(km

)

Acc

ura

cy in

%

Ave

rage

Tra

ck

Erro

r(km

)

Acc

ura

cy in

%

CENS 66 59 88 57 113 57 139 57 160 57 185 57 213 58 243 58 270 58 298 58 327 58 351 58

ECMWF 50 62 66 61 73 58 98 60 101 58 134 60 135 58 174 60 172 58 214 61 209 59 255 61

GEFS 58 62 53 52 66 67 65 67 112 38 123 52 170 52 170 52 259 48 233 57 212 67 189 52

JMA-GEPS 42 59 60 51 77 56 86 61 94 55 70 33

JMA-TEPS 53 60 76 59 101 58 128 58 155 58 182 59 208 59 234 59 262 60 288 60 315 61 342 61

JMA-WEPS 41 60 62 60 86 60 117 60 135 60 169 60 203 61 239 62 258 61 301 62 336 62 378 62

MOGREPS 81 59 109 58 145 59 178 58 214 58 251 59

MOGREPS-G 73 60 84 59 101 59 116 60 138 60 160 62 180 61 204 62 236 62 265 62 300 62 329 62

PEARP 68 60 88 58 112 58 139 59 163 59 189 59 212 59 237 60 250 60 265 60 288 59 314 59

Table 2: track error and track accuracy (510 initiative of the Netherlands Red Cross) It is worth noting that the higher category of TCs, the better the track forecast skill will be.

TC CATEGORY WPF 24 hours (%)

PAGASA 24 hours (%)

WPF 48 hours (%)

PAGASA 48 hours (%)

WPF 72 hours (%)

PAGASA 72 hours (%)

TD 40.33 43.78 63.97 57.76 34.67 25.00

TS/STS 54.28 43.71 58.90 45.02 63.52 44.29

TY/STY 69.06 59.91 79.40 73.08 77.93 71.57

Table 3: source Weather Philippines Foundation


Fig 24: source 510 initiative of the NLRC


Using PAGASA forecasts in the 510 Statistical model has been successfully tested (see Annex 5) and a Memorandum of Agreement (MoA) is to be signed between PRC and PAGASA for making this automatic – unfortunately, this agreement is still pending at the time of submitting this EAP. Meanwhile, the 510 team of the Netherlands Red Cross has developed an automatic processing of TC forecasts provided by the University College of London (UCL), which are based on both JTWC16 and JMA models.

4.2 When is the impact deemed critical Analysis of impact due to TCs is showing that the scale of damage depends not only on the intensity of the winds but also on the levels of precipitation which can induce flooding or landslide. While the extent of damages due to the wind is exponential – meaning that the higher category of the tropical cyclone, the higher impact should be expected (see in figure 25 the impact curve prepared for the country, for 2013-2017) – the impact due to the rain induced by the TCs is not following a clear pattern (see figure 26).

Fig 25: source Risk Analysis (PRC FbF project, 2018) Fig 25 is showing a good correlation between windspeed and amount of damages, with two events having recorded a more prominent impact – Typhoon Glenda (Rammasun, in July 2014) and Super Typhoon Yolanda (Haiyan, in November 2013). In both cases, the damages were compounded either by the effect of rains (for Glenda) or of the storm surge (for Yolanda). Without those two events, the curve remains exponential. The impact due to extreme rainfall on a particular location will mostly result from secondary hazards (landslides or flood) and will depend on the capacity (or not) for this location to absorb or channel the

16 Track error of the JTWC forecasts is in the same range – see https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCFW/JMAworkshop/5-2.JTWC_EFukada.pdf

https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCFW/JMAworkshop/5-2.JTWC_EFukada.pdf


excess of water. Several factors must be considered – topography, speed of the cyclone, saturation of the soil, land uses, etc. – which makes the prediction of impact from the rainfall much more complex. One particular challenge is to monitor the successive impact of TCs on the same area over a short period of time, which will reduce the absorption capacity of the soil and will compound the impact of the rain brought by the TCs; for example in November 2004, the central provinces of Luzon island experienced in less than 2 weeks the successive impacts of Typhoon Unding (Muifa), TS Violeta (Merbok), TD Winnie and Typhoon Yoyong (Nanmadol), leading to a major disaster in the province of Quezon. As per figure 26, the economic impact of tropical cyclones has a poor correlation with the rainfall levels, with some events such as TS Seniang (Jangmi) or TD Urduja (Kai Tak) bringing high level of rainfall (respectively 360 mm and 490 mm in 24h) but having a low economic impact (around 1 billion php), compare for example to TY Glenda (Rammasun) which led to damages amounting 38 billion php (with less than 200 mm of rain).

Fig 26: source Risk Analysis (PRC FbF project, 2018) As the windspeed is generally the main contributor of typhoon impact and as the prediction of the impacts due to the tropical cyclone rains isn’t possible at this stage (apart if using flood models in major river basins17), the trigger of typhoon Early Actions will be based on the forecasted impact 72h before landfall associated to predicted windspeed only. To do so, the impact of typhoons’ winds was analyzed in three of the regions more likely to be impacted, focusing on the percentage of houses totally damaged in relation to windspeed recorded at landfall (see the impact curves in fig 27-28-29). Data was retrieved from the NDRRMC situation reports, compiling the number of houses totally damaged at municipal level, which was then reported to the total number of houses of the same municipalities (PSA, 2015). The limited number of tropical cyclones having hit the project’s target provinces in Mindanao, between 2006 and 2018 (when the

17 It is foreseen that Early Actions for flood induced by TC will be possible in certain river basins, as part of the Flood EAP under preparation


damages on housing has been systematically recorded by the authorities), prevented the development of an impact curve for this specific region.

Fig 27: Provincial impact curve for Cagayan (North Luzon)

Fig 28: Provincial impact curves for Camarines Sur and Catanduanes

0.00%

2.00%

4.00%

6.00%

8.00%

10.00%

12.00%

14.00%

0 50 100 150 200 250 300

% o

f h

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ed

Windspeed (kph)

impact curve for Cagayan province

0.00

5.00

10.00

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20.00

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50.00

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200

% o

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windspeed (kph)

Camarines Sur & Catanduanes - impact curve

TY Nina (2016)

TY Reming (2006) - 16 years RP

TY Lawin (2016)

TY Ompong (2018)


Fig 29: Provincial impact curves for North and East Samar Logically, the impact on housing is rising much faster in the Visayas region, and in the Bicol region, compare to the Northern Luzon region: as demonstrated in section 3.6, the vulnerabilities of houses is much higher there. While 5% of houses at provincial level would be totally damaged with an average windspeed of 120 kph in Eastern Visayas, the same impact would be reached at a wind of 155 kph in average in Bicol, but would only be reached for a wind of 200 kph in North Luzon. Based on the analysis of these impact curves, it is proposed to trigger typhoon Early Actions when the predicted impact (72 hours before landfall) is more than 10% of houses being totally damaged at municipal level, in at least 3 municipalities.

4.3 Justification of the trigger level The proposed trigger (10% of houses totally damaged in at least 3 municipalities) is corresponding to the level of impact recorded for typhoons with a return period of 5 years or more (see table 4). If we consider the province of Camarines Sur, TY Reming (Durian), which has a 16 years return period, had the most severe impact with more than 17% of the house considered totally damaged at provincial level – with 13 of the 37 municipalities having recorded more than 20% of their houses totally damaged, and 10 municipalities having between 10 and 20% of the houses totally damaged (see details in Annex 4). TY Nina (Nock Ten) had a lower impact with 9,64% of the houses totally damaged at the provincial level – but with 7 municipalities having more than 20% of their houses totally damaged, in addition to 5 municipalities having between 10-20% of houses totally damaged. In the province of East Samar, STY Yolanda (Haiyan), which has a return period of 111 years, had a tremendous impact on housing with close to 29% of houses totally damaged at province level, while TY Ruby (Hagupit), with a 38 years return period, led to 18,5% of the houses being totally damaged in the same province – with 10 municipalities having more than 20% of the houses totally damaged and 2 municipalities having between 10-20% of houses totally damaged.

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200

% o

f h

ou

ses

tota

lly d

amag

ed

windspeed (kph)

North & East Samar - impact curves

TY Ruby (2014) -

38 y RP

TY Yolanda (2013)

- 111 y RP


Those events with the highest return periods are the most destructive and their impact is way over the proposed trigger level. The example of Typhoon Frank (Fengshen) which crossed the Visayas region in 2008 and has a return period of 5 years, illustrates better the adequacy of the trigger: TY Frank entered East Samar but had only a limited impact in this province (0,75% of houses totally damaged at province level) while impacting more severely the provinces of Ilo Ilo and Aklan on the western part of the Visayas islands – with 9,68% of houses totally damaged in Aklan, and 3 of its municipalities having more than 10% of houses totally damaged there. Looking at TS Ondoy (Ketsana), which has a 2 years return period, a minimum level of damages was recorded: in the most impacted provinces of Rizal and Laguna, only one municipality reported an impact of more than 10% of houses totally damaged (in Jala Jala municipality).

Table 4: list of the most intense and destructive cyclones in the Philippines from 1970 to 201418 In Cagayan (Northern Luzon), the trigger level could already be tested for Typhoon Ompong (Mangkhut) which hit the province in September 2018. The 510 initiative of the Netherlands RC used 3-days forecasted windspeed (provided by the University College of London) in their statistical model – supported by a database of 27 historical tropical cyclone occurrence from 2006 to 201819 – which provided a map of predicted percentage of houses totally damaged at municipal level (see fig 30), and allowed the FbF team to assess if the critical level was going to be reached. For this particular event, 12 municipalities were predicted to have more than 9% of houses totally damaged, 72 hours prior to landfall.

18 Return period and pareto analyses of 45 years of TC data (1970-2014) in the Philippines, Rudolf Espada 19 Refer to Annex 5 for additional information on the Statistical model of the 510 initiative


Assuming that the 510 map can display the municipalities that would sustain more than 10% of houses totally damaged, the FbF team can (i) confirm the trigger, e.g. 3 municipalities at least reaching that impact level, then (ii) use the combined vulnerability Index from the 510 dashboard to shortlist the most vulnerable municipalities where to implement the Forecast based Actions. However, in the case of Typhoon Ompong (Mangkhut), it was not possible to push through with the Typhoon Early Actions as the Red Cross chapter of Cagayan was not yet involved in the development of the EAP at this time.

Impact Forecast -72h Impact Forecast -48h

Impact Forecast -24h 6h after (based on actual windspeed)

Fig 30: typhoon Ompong impact forecasts (source 510 initiative) The 510 statistical model was applied again for typhoon Rosita (Yutu) in October 2018 – see fig 31 – which predicted impact did not reach the proposed trigger level, with no municipalities having more than 10% of houses being totally damaged based on predicted windspeed (this was confirmed afterwards with a maximum of 4.4% houses totally damaged in the municipality of Alicia, source NDRRMC sitrep).

In summary, the trigger of Early Actions will be done in two stages: (1) the impact forecast produced with the statistical model shall help validating if the trigger level is reached on day -3, whereas (2) the combined vulnerability index will be used for deciding in which particular municipalities the Early Actions shall be implemented.

If the impact at 72h is not confirming the information shared in the Alert, because the typhoon has lost energy or due to a change of track, the Early Actions can be cancelled or target new chapters. However, once the trigger is confirmed, any further change of track/ magnitude of the TC will not lead to the cancellation of activities, and only Livestock Evacuation can still be adjusted.


Fig 31: typhoon Rosita impact forecast (source 510 initiative)

5. Selection of Actions

5.1 Prioritized impact: rationale In order to identify what early actions shall be implemented in anticipation of a typhoon, it is important to have a thorough understanding of the main problems and what manifestations are to be anticipated. The PRC chapters involved in the development of this first version of the EAP, with the inputs from partner agencies, analyzed current situation, causes of the problem, and impact of typhoons in their respective provinces. The prioritized impacts to be reduced, as detailed in section 3 of this EAP, are:

• the loss of income of vulnerable farmers and fisherfolk

• the damages to houses

Therefore, the typhoon early actions must be (1) targeting the most vulnerable farmers and fisherfolk to ensure that they have sufficient financial resources (or assets) to bounce back after the typhoon; and (2) targeting the most vulnerable houses, in order for them to sustain minimal damages, thus limiting their spending in repairs.

5.2 Early Action selection process 5.2.1 Summary The identification and prioritization of the Early Actions involved a total of 19 provinces clustered in 6 groups – 2 groups in 2018 (one group with 3 target provinces in Bicol and another one with the 3 provinces of Samar island), and 4 groups in 2019 (one group with the 3 provinces of North Luzon, one with the other 3 provinces in Bicol, one with the 2 provinces of Leyte and the province of Cebu, and finally one group with the 4 target provinces of Mindanao).


The process consisted in 3 successive steps:

• First, a ‘leveling’ workshop with the selected PRC chapters and their respective government partners. These workshops allowed the participants to be informed on the typhoon EAP development plan, to identify past typhoon impacts in their respective provinces and to prioritize them. For each of the prioritized impact, the Theory of Change (ToC) – see section 5.2.2 – was used to map pathway of change and identify possible Early Actions.

• Second, focus group discussions and key informant interviews were conducted in the respective provinces to gather more evidences and to validate the choice of the early actions (Shelter Strengthening, Cash for Work, livestock evacuation).

• Finally, simulation exercises allowed the testing and validation of the planned Early Actions: two simulations on shelter strengthening took place in October 2018 and in August 2019, one on the Cash for work (for Early Harvesting) in July 2019, and one simulation for the livestock evacuation early September 2019.

In addition to the simulation exercises, it was deemed necessary to undertake a specific technical study on the Shelter Strengthening Kit (SSK) design that would contribute to minimize impact of typhoons winds (118-200 kph) on houses and could be purchased locally. This study was undertaken by the international organization Build Change and was finally completed on July 2019. Looking at the geography of the Philippines and the respective contexts of the targeted regions, a strong emphasis was put on the possible adjustment of the Early Actions to the local context; for instance, the provinces in East Visayas have selected principally the reinforcement of houses, while the focus in the Bicol provinces is more on the early-harvesting of crops through Cash for Work, and the focus in Mindanao is on livestock evacuation – see also section 5.3.

5.2.2 Theory of change

Through the use of the Theory of Change (see next page), the team came up with a list of various possible Early Actions addressing each of the prioritized impacts (loss of lives, loss of income of farmers and fisherfolk, damages to housing).

Long term objective – addressing prioritized impact

Pre-conditions

Pre-conditions Input (Early Action)

Assumptions The Early Actions identified through this exercise are as follow:

a. Dissemination of early warnings to target groups

b. Protection of livelihoods: Evacuation and storage of livestock/ assets

c. Protection of livelihoods: Anticipatory cash for work for farmers and fisherfolk (early

harvesting, declogging of drainages)

d. Basic needs provisioning for farmers and fisherfolk through unconditional cash grant

e. Strengthening of vulnerable shelters


f. Pre-positioning of temporary shelter material


Zero casualties is achieved during extreme typhoons

vulnerable farmers & fisherfolk have sufficient resources

to bounce back after typhoon

Loss and damages to vulnerable shelters due to

typhoons are reduced

Houses in no-build zones are relocated

most at-risk people are willing to evacuate

Evacuation plans are developed, tested and

updated

Production of farmers and fisherfolk is secured (tools, irrigation, crops, livestock)

additional income is available for the most

vulnerable groups

vulnerable houses are able to withstand strong winds

(120-200 kph)

Warning messages are disseminated

on time with predicted impact

on key sectors

trained responders are equipped and

ready to intervene

risks on tools, crops and

livestock are mitigated

safe evacuation centers are identified, and have a

dedicated space for livestock closeby

Impact forecast information is

available

dissemination channels are clear

and reliable

Veterinary support is available

Local DRRM Fund is used for improving

the evacuations

evacuation of livestock and

assets is planned and tested

declogging of canals is

systematized

Vulnerable farmers & fisherfolk are

insured

Vulnerable farmers & fisherfolk get ex ante

financial support

Alternative livelihood options are available

Vulnerable houses are reinforced immediately

before typhoon

Shelter strengthening kit is

designed and can be purchased locally

Vulnerable houses are retrofitted

CLUP is enforced

Funding is available

Vulnerable houses are identified

a

e

c

c

b

d

Alternative housing available

f

Reloca-tion

plans are available

Source of livelihood

Skilled workers are

available

Farms at-risk are identified

Early harvesting of matured crops is

implemented

IEC campaign is organised

Affordable insurance packages

Skilled workers are available


5.3 Chosen early actions As the main impact of typhoon identified is on the anticipated loss of income of farmers and fisherfolk protection of livelihoods should be one priority for Early Action. Early Harvesting is considered for saving matured crops specially in the target provinces of Bicol or North Luzon with higher percentage of farmers:

• For Catanduanes, saving matured abaca tree is considered as a priority since it is the main livelihood of the province: if these trees are uprooted then it will need close to two years to grow again and produce siblings; moreover, if matured trees are damaged during typhoon, then it cannot provide good abaca fiber. Early harvesting (or trimming) of matured abaca trees was identified as a priority. This can be done in a short time ahead of the typhoon landfall.

• For the other targeted provinces, early harvesting of rice, or corn, can be considered. Evacuation of livestock and assets (such as fishing equipment or boats) is a flexible Early Action that can target areas not only exposed to the severe winds, but also to the risk of flooding or landslide. It is expected that this Early Action will also contribute to reduce the loss of lives as numerous livestock owners are reluctant to evacuate without their animals and are remaining in areas at-risk:

• The Early Action will consist of truck rental, installation of a safe evacuation/ pooling area for the swine, goat, carabao and cattle (if possible near evacuation centers for human), with provision of feed and water to the livestock for maximum 3 days (day -2, day -1, and day 0).

• On day -3, the chapter will hire teams of 10 farmers (or fisherfolk) per barangay, and will inform them on their role: e.g. the installation of the park/ temporary fencing for the animals (principally the swine) and the management of the evacuation from the pickup points to the pooling area (including the tagging of the animals and their dispatching).

• Then on day -2, the livestock evacuation at the safe place can proceed (till day -1).

• It will target the regions where the distribution of swine and cattle in backyard farming is higher (Bicol, and Davao), in LGUs where a safe evacuation/ pooling area is pre-identified.

• Additionally, securing fishing assets (nets, boats) can be considered in specific contexts. In relation to the second main impact identified – the damage to houses – the selected early action is the distribution of shelter strengthening kit (SSK) – which was developed in cooperation with the expert organization Build Change, see design in fig 32 – and will be available in all target provinces, with a higher number of SSK considered for the Eastern Visayas region.

• 4 typologies of Houses are being considered – which will be identified through the use of Assessment Form (see Annex 6)

• House types 1 & 2 (which are supposed to be the strongest structures) will be provided with the IEC material only (Annex 7)

• IEC & SSK will be provided for type 3 with the total costs of one SSK amounting 6,390.00 php (around 121.41 CHF), for reinforcing both roof and walls – see list of SSK material and associated costs in Annex 8;

• While the Red Cross is spending more than 10,000 php (190.00 CHF) in average to fix house’s roof in its typhoon recovery programmes, the SSK is intended to minimize the costs of repair by limiting the damage to the house.

• This early action does not intend to retrofit the house but only to reinforce the roof and the walls, reducing the money required for shelter repair, and making it accessible to the households immediately after impact, thus minimizing the time spent in evacuation centers.


• The SSK distribution will be focusing on high risks areas in the four regions considered for the typhoon EAP – but will be possible only if winds remain less than 200 kph.

• Houses which would not qualify for the distribution of SSK (type 4) will be considered in priority to be involved in Cash for Work activities, as a team of 2 skilled and 3 unskilled workers will be recruited for installing the Shelter Strengthening Kit.

Fig 32: SSK (Build Change, for the PRC FbF project, 2019) Cash for work will be considered systematically for the three early actions:

• Cash for work is a short-term intervention that will specifically benefit to vulnerable farmers, or fisherfolk (see section 5.6), by providing them with temporary employment.

• In exchange for the work rendered, target beneficiaries will be provided with cash (workers will receive a service contract by the chapter). Basically, the cash should meet their requirement for basic needs and cover for some of the losses induced by the typhoon.

• It is proposed to provide a lump sum of 1,000.00 php per person (around 19.00 CHF), for 2 days of work – this corresponds approximately to the price of a bag of 25kg of rice.

In summary, depending on the possible typhoon track and needs of the respective regions, the following repartition of the Typhoon Early Actions is being considered:

Early Actions Scenario A (North Luzon)

Scenario B (Bicol region)

Scenario C (East Visayas)

Scenario D (Mindanao)

Early harvesting 200 farms 150 farms 100 farms -

CFW (early harvesting) 1000 workers 750 workers 500 workers -

Livestock evacuation - 500 heads - 1250 heads

CFW (livestock evac.) - 100 workers - 250 workers

Shelter Strengthening 500 SSK 500 SSK 1,000 SSK 500 SSK

CFW (SSK) 150 workers 150 workers 300 workers 150 workers

TOTAL Beneficiaries 1850 2150 1900 2150

A number of Early Actions identified in the process were eventually not considered in the typhoon EAP for various reasons: either because it is already covered (dissemination of early warning messages) or because it is requiring specific pre-conditions out of Red Cross control (availability of relocation sites for setting temporary shelters).


5.4 Evidence based The proposed early actions were selected to address the main typhoons impact in high risk areas, and were based on their feasibility and relevance. To confirm this, contexts in the high-risk areas and impact of an extreme weather event were investigated through focus group discussions (FGDs) and key informant interviews (KIIs) with the key agencies in the provinces as well as with communities at risk. A specific study on the Shelter Strengthening Kit in addition to two trainings were commissioned to the organization Build Change, to determine the most appropriate and cost-effective design that would allow to minimize impact of high winds on houses. Past typhoon reports were also reviewed to confirm the appropriateness of those actions. A. North Luzon (Cagayan, Isabela, Aurora) The population in North Luzon is highly dependent on agriculture for their livelihoods, with the provinces of Cagayan and Isabella being among the main producers of rice and corn in the country. Early harvesting of rice is considered as the first option; alternatively, the Early Action can also support the early harvesting of corn20.

• The majority of rice farmers in North Luzon are smallholders who farm less than two hectares – in 2002, the average size farm is 1.68 hectares per farm21;

• Among the provinces in Cagayan Valley, Isabela had in 2002 the highest number of farms (129.7 thousand), followed by Cagayan with 118.7 thousand farms;

• The destruction of their crops, due to typhoon, means that they are likely to go into even greater debt and have difficulty with procuring inputs to replant for the next cropping season.

• Apart from rice, corn and fish are food items that are most likely to have supplies affected in the short term because of Typhoon occurrence; food insecurity might become a secondary effect, hence the importance of preserving livelihoods of farmers and fisherfolk.

• Harvesting rice requires high number of skilled laborers – around 10 -20 manpower are requested to harvest 1 hectare – and the use of combined harvester;

• Five steps are usually considered in rice harvesting22: reaping, hauling, threshing, cleaning, and bagging;

• In an anticipatory context, with little time to harvest matured crops, process shall be simplified and will include (i) reaping the crop, (ii) hauling the cut crops to central location for (iii) preparing bags of paddy.

• then the bags shall be carried to a safe storage facility (traditionally with a buffalo) or directly to the market.

Based on recent impact on housing of typhoons Ompong (Mangkhut) and Lawin (Haima) – respectively 7% and 9% of houses totally damaged in the province of Cagayan – the distribution of SSK shall also benefit the region in lessening the damages and the money spent in repair. B. Bicol region Camarines Sur, Camarines Norte, Albay and Sorsogon

• According to the Department of Agriculture’s post-disaster report (see Annex 2), main impact of typhoons in these provinces is on rice crop.

20 https://www.rappler.com/nation/211947-cagayan-farmers-premature-harvest-typhoon-ompong 21 https://psa.gov.ph/content/review-agriculture-sector-cagayan-valley 22 http://www.knowledgebank.irri.org/step-by-step-production/postharvest/harvesting

https://www.rappler.com/nation/211947-cagayan-farmers-premature-harvest-typhoon-ompong

https://psa.gov.ph/content/review-agriculture-sector-cagayan-valley

http://www.knowledgebank.irri.org/step-by-step-production/postharvest/harvesting


• Rice planting and harvesting cycle varies from 1 farmer to another, but traditionally, 1st cropping season is from June to November, while 2nd cropping is from December to April.

• The province of Camarines Sur accounted for 49% of the region’s average annual rice production output in 2005 (PhilRice, 2006), followed by Masbate and Albay with close to 16% each of the regional production.

• The rice production sector in the region remains underdeveloped as the incidence of poverty among farmers remains high and hardly changed, from 50% in 2000 to 47% in 2006 (PSA 2009)

• Typhoon Nina (Nock Ten) had a severe damage in 2016 in the Bicol region, with the province of Camarines Sur having close to 50% of its rice fields being totally damaged, and 20% in Albay;

• Typhoon Nona (Melor) in Dec 2015 led to 33% of the rice fields affected in Sorsogon province with no chance of recovery;

• Typhoon Glenda (Rammasun) in July 2014 led to 22% loss on rice fields in Camarines Sur, and 17% damage on rice in Albay.

If the typhoon hits early in or after the rice crop harvesting period, the cash for work EA will support alternatively the early harvesting of corn, or consider cleaning of drainages which would contribute to the typhoon-induced flood mitigation. Additionally, evacuation of livestock or assets can be considered as an Early Action. These actions will boost the “bayanihan” 23 system of the community, secure their livelihood, and will further lessen impact and make the response activities more effective since works have been started much earlier. Eventually, SSK will also be available in these four provinces:

• Coastal areas are mainly with shelters made of light materials, which as well are being affected due to strong winds during typhoon;

• one of the first thing they do is to secure their shelters, using any local materials they can find in the community, like some woods, old vehicle tires, ropes, etc.

• Providing shelter kit will supply vulnerable households with appropriate materials and technics to strengthen the roof and walls, helping to withstand strong winds and eventually

ensure less damage. Catanduanes island

• There are about 32,012.48 hectares of abaca plantations being cultivated by 14,168 Abaca farmers (as of 2017);

• Approximately 60% of Catanduanes’ population relies on Abaca fiber production as their main source of income;

• The region contributes to about 40% of the roughly $130.3 million annual national abaca experts to major global market;

• At least 90% or 22,755 metric tons of the regional share comes from Catanduanes;

• In December 2016, about 25,195 hectares corresponding to Php 333.347 million were loss, and 13,529 farmers were affected by typhoon Nina (Nock Ten) as per the Post disaster Needs Assessment of Phil-FIDA, principally in the municipalities of Baras, Bato and San Miguel. It took almost three years to the affected farmers to fully recover.

• The Post-disaster needs assessment done in Catanduanes after TY Nina stated that: “cash for work programs/ incentives are deemed appropriate while abaca farmers are waiting for their crops to recover and regain its fiber production levels”.

Providing support for early harvesting of mature abaca trees will help the farmers saving the trees, which then can be tuxyied (operation consisting of removing the outer envelope of the tree) and stripped between 2 weeks up to one month after typhoon impact, and allow matured abaca tree’s

23 Bayanihan is a Filipino custom derived from a Filipino word “bayan”, which means nation or town. The term bayanihan means “being in a bayan”, which refers to the spirit of communal unity, work, and cooperation to achieve a particular goal.


root to produce 5 to 6 suckers, hence facilitating a faster recovery of the farms. This intervention will sustain farmers’ income after typhoon impact, while providing cash to both farmers and fishermen involved in the activity for supporting immediately their basic daily needs. Furthermore, based on discussion with farmers and traders following a simulation exercise organized at the end of July 2019 (see report in Annex 9), the proposed early action is deemed relevant and feasible:

➢ Based on the simulation, a team of 20 skilled abacaleros can cut up to 1,000 matured abaca trees in half-day, which corresponds to the average number of matured trees, in a farm of 1 HA; alternatively, upon discussion with the farm owner, abaca trees could be simply trimmed to minimize the possible impact of the winds and ensure that they will not be uprooted, and will continue to grow after the disaster;

➢ 1 team can be hired for 2 days, in each targeted barangay, which would contribute to cut (or trim) a maximum of Abaca trees in up to 4 farms per barangays;

➢ A total of 30 barangays could be covered if only the island of Catanduanes is activating, which would require the involvement of 60 volunteers from the chapter (1 chapter-based volunteer and 1 RC143 per barangay);

➢ In normal harvest time, 1 worker would process 20 big trees (or 30 small trees) and would immediately extract around 15-20 kg of fiber. For 1 farm of 1,000 matured abaca trees, the farmer can get around 700 kg of fiber (sold in average 75 php/kg);

➢ Pre-identified beneficiary farms shall be consulted prior to intervention (during prescreening or at the barangay orientation on day -3);

➢ If the cutting of trees is prioritized, the farmer must agree to hire abacaleros/ fishermen to help processing the harvested trees after typhoon impact.

Another main source of income in the province is fisheries with about 12,000 registered fisher folks. This group is also highly affected by tropical cyclones with LGUs regularly ordering a “no sailing policy” as soon as signal warning is raised prior to landfall of typhoon to make sure that fisherfolk are safe. With this scenario, fisherfolk are in need of an alternative income to not resort into negative coping mechanisms, like engaging in loans, debts, etc. Hence, we are proposing to involve fisherfolk in the early harvesting activity – it is common that fisherfolk in Catanduanes are also skilled abacaleros.

Masbate island The province of Masbate is one of the neediest provinces of the Philippines with a poverty incidence of 44.2% (PSA 2012). It is an island province, same as Catanduanes, which means it is not possible to set up a stock of Shelter Strengthening Kits there. Early harvesting of rice will be our primary Early Action, in addition to livestock evacuation around the auction centers.

• 58.7% of the households are engaged on chicken raising, 52.1% on livestock rising and 48% on vegetable gardening (source: Nutrition Causal Analysis, UNICEF, 2015).

• Based on the simulation exercise organized early September 2019 in Davao Oriental (see Annex 9), 10 workers per evacuation center is sufficient to take care the installation of the corral for the livestock and their evacuation.

• The simulation exercise demonstrated that a corral accommodating 35 livestock can be set in half a day – while the evacuation can be done (with proper instructions made to the owners) in less than an hour.


• This Early Action has also been tested by DSWD in Albay province in 2017 where some 35,000 animals were evacuated from the danger zone near the restive volcano Mayon. The report is informing that Albay government spent Php105.9 per day for the evacuated animals24.

• With an average of 50 livestock to be evacuated per evacuation center, this early action is deemed feasible between day -3 and day -1.

C. In East Visayas

• Approximately 60% in high risks areas are living in shelters made of light materials

• During previous operations in past disaster events, local PRC chapters gained expertise in the shelter sector, training skilled and unskilled workers and providing repair kits to the most vulnerable households after the event.

• Repair kits provided by PRC in post-disaster context are amounting to Php10,000.00 for fixing the roof25.

• On the other hand, strengthening kit is costing up to php 6,390.00 with the aim of reducing the damages to the roof and the walls.

• Hiring of teams of 5 skilled and unskilled workers to help installing the SSK will provide additional income to the communities at risk – the simulation exercise demonstrated that it takes in average 1 hour to strengthen 1 house, so a team would be able to cover in average 8 houses per day.

• At most, 1000 houses shall be covered if the 4 provinces targeted in East visayas must activate; this would require 60 teams for 2 days.

Two simulation exercises were organized on SSK: one in October 2018 in West Samar province, and one end of August 2019 in Aurora province (see Annex 9). The simulations consisted of distributing SSK to 30 target households in 3 different barangays, with the hiring of teams of 5 workers to support the installation of the kits. The main learnings gathered during the simulations were:

- The need to have a strong and flexible SSK design, as well as a proper IEC material (which was developed after the first simulation with Build Change);

- The challenge of procuring good lumber in large quantity which led the team to consider using iron bars instead for anchoring the ropes;

- The importance of pre procuring most of the SSK items ahead of the typhoon season to avoid any shortage of material; while only the lumbers, plywood and tools (necessary to secure the walls) shall be purchased as soon as the Early Action is confirmed;

- The feasibility of intervening with a team of only 5 workers is confirmed; - A training or orientation of the Red Cross chapters’ volunteers (which is also a deliverable of

Build Change) is required; - The possibility of involving the beneficiaries when intervening on the first house, so that they

can learn and eventually start the SSK installation immediately.

D. In Mindanao

The impact of typhoon Pablo (Bopha) in 2012 was significant on housing, with 10.7% of houses totally damaged in affected provinces in eastern Mindanao. It is interesting to note that IFRC responded very fast to the typhoon, with the deployment of a shelter coordinator from the Asia-Pacific Zone before Bopha made landfall (source: Bopha shelter cluster review, IFRC, July 2014); however, the same review

24 https://newsinfo.inquirer.net/639559/35000-animals-near-mayon-volcano-evacuated#ixzz5wYdr77BN 25 Under the Ompong recovery programme, DSWD provided cash assistance of P30,000 to families with destroyed houses, and P10,000 to families whose homes sustained partial damage (source: OCHA)

https://newsinfo.inquirer.net/639559/35000-animals-near-mayon-volcano-evacuated#ixzz5wYdr77BN


is highlighting that “although IFRC was praised for the speed of personnel deployment, lack of funding resulted in short contracts for most Shelter Coordination Team members [and] the team’s future was uncertain before it had been in Mindanao a month”. Thus, it is expected that the anticipatory SSK installation can complement appropriately the work of PRC in post-disaster response. The evacuation of livestock was tested early September 2019 and benefited from a strong coordination between the Red Cross chapter and the Provincial partners such as the Provincial DRRM Office, the Social Welfare and Development Office (PSWDO) or the Office of the Provincial Veterinary (OPV) in implementing this simulation – demonstrating the relevance of the early action:

➢ The PSWDO provided food packs for the evacuees, while the OPV provided forage and vitamins for the ruminants,

➢ Moreover the Bureau of Fire and Protection (BFP) provided water for the animals and the Provincial Engineering Office (PEO) also came up with 2 units of truck with ramps

➢ PRC only covered fuel and allowance/food for the driver and assistants, in addition to the material needed for setting up the temporary fencing and the cash for work for the farmers who managed the evacuation center for animals.

5.5 Analysis/ consequences of acting in vain Partners and stakeholders involved in the development of this first EAP for typhoon raised repeatedly their concerns about acting in vain:

• People will not easily trust the weather or impact forecast the next time;

• People might be dependable and demand for an assistance whenever an event will occur, even if not an extreme event.

On the other hand, even the event will not occur, the proposed early actions will still benefit the most vulnerable households in the high risks areas. For the cash for work, cash provided will be used in securing daily basic needs of the targeted households, while the work will still be relevant, as there will be no disadvantage seen:

✓ If mature abaca trees are cut, it can still be stripped up to 1 month after, while traders have confirmed in KIIs that an increase of fiber production post typhoon will be easily handled as worldwide demand for Abaca fiber is still higher than the offer;

✓ Early harvesting of rice or corn will also have no negative impact on prices, considering that both commodities are being imported in the Philippines and demand is not met by national production;

other works, like cleaning of drainage, or securing of the livelihood assets, will all be valuable to the communities. In strengthening of shelters, target will be those houses made in light material, thus benefiting to those most vulnerable. Also, kit is designed to be detachable so households can remove it when not necessary and apply again when situation requires. Evacuation of livestock (done in vain) might stress the animals for a short time but are not expected to create any long-term negative impact. Besides, as demonstrated during the simulation exercise, the animals that are pooled in the safe evacuation place can be examined by the Office of the Provincial Veterinary, and receive some medical supplies, which benefit in fine to the farmers.


Simulation exercises showed that all of the Early Actions need thorough discussion and orientation with the beneficiaries in targeted areas in order to inform on the purpose of the anticipatory intervention. Assistance should not be seen as a long-term solution to the needs of the communities but only addressing the possible impact of an extreme event that is predicted to happen, on the most vulnerable population.

5.6 Selection of beneficiaries

While targeted areas for typhoon Early Actions will be identified based on the impact-based forecast map produced with the 510 statistical model, hence depending on the track and windspeed pertaining to a particular event, still assistance should be concentrating on the areas which are known to be the most vulnerable and less capacitated (informed by the 510 Community Risk Assessment index). Due to the short lead time for intervention (3 days) and considering the detailed information needed in order to prioritize beneficiaries, it was resolved together with the local PRC chapters, partners, and stakeholders to have a process of selection in two stages:

Prior to the lead time, the FbF project is short listing 5 to 6 municipalities most at risk per province, using the following indicators:

• Impact of past events on housing and crops

• frequency of disasters

• Poverty incidence

• Number of 4Ps

• Income class Then, within these shortlisted municipalities, the team is shortlisting most at-risk barangays with similar criteria – see in Annex 10 the list of municipalities and barangays already shortlisted in the 6 initial target provinces (targeted in 2018), and the first LGUs shortlisted in the additional 13 provinces (added in 2019). Eventually, the shortlisted barangays must be oriented early on the FbF intervention and on the setting up of a barangay committee (BARCOM), which is traditionally used by PRC in response activities, for the selection of beneficiaries – see BARCOM ToR (Annex 11). With support of the BARCOM, the team pre-identify beneficiaries using the following set of criteria to identify which households/ farms to support (for the SSK and the early harvesting actions) – as well as

Prior (of lead time)

•Gathering of secondary data of the most at risk areas from PDRRMO, PPDO, MDRRMO, BFAR, DA, OPAG, MPDO, DSWD, etc.

•Metadata base of the most at risk areas and most vulnerable households

Within lead time

•Screening of households from the meta-database

•Finalization of beneficiaries with barangay "validation" committee

•Beneficiaries' orientation including registration


which will be the possible beneficiaries of the Cash for Work. As for the evacuation of livestock, it is benefiting to all owners (as long as they have less than 21 heads).

SHELTER STRENGTHENING KIT CASH FOR WORK (crosscutting)

• Household occupying the shelter within 6 months – this is to prevent those who claim that they are a resident in the area, wherein they are residing in other areas already

• Household type 3 as per the assessment form

• Household type 4 for cash for work • Household living in safe zones26 - those

residing in no built zone will not be targeted since PRC is not tolerating actions that are against the government law and policy

Farmers & Fisherfolks • tenant – those not owning the land but

cultivating it; giving either cash or percent of their product as rent for the land

• labourer – unskilled worker hired and paid in a daily basis

• poor household (thru 4Ps27) • HH with more than 5 children • HH with disabled member • HH with elderly member • single-headed household with dependent

children • female-headed household with dependent

children • minor-headed household • Native or indigenous tribe

Skilled and unskilled worker – for strengthening of shelter

EARLY HARVESTING

• Less than 2 hectares

• Accessible from main roads

• Not insured with PCIC (optional)

Within the leadtime, it is expected that this list of pre-identified beneficiaries will be submitted to the barangay committee (BARCOM) on the first day of activation, for quick review and updating, before finalisation.

5.7 Feasibility

Although PRC mantra is “always first, always ready, and always there”, the identified early actions to be implemented in the target areas with highest predicted damages is something new to the organisation, especially within 3 days prior to the typhoon landfall. However, the PRC has 108 chapters at provincial level which can implement Early Actions, with the help of its extended network of RC143 volunteers (see also section 8 on capacities). Also, for this pilot intervention, simulations were vital to test and validate the approach. The key learnings from the simulation exercises pertaining to the distribution and installation of the Shelter Strengthening Kit (SSK) were:

▪ House strengthening, during both simulations, was successfully implemented in an average of 1 hour per house, with a team of 2 skilled and 3 unskilled workers.

▪ Skilled carpenters were recruited on short notice using the database of LGUs. ▪ By involving the beneficiaries in the installation of the first SSK, it can shorten the time of

intervention as they can start installing (or preparing) the kit on their own house before the arrival of the team of workers.

26 Safe zone – area identified outside hazard zones and not covered by existing laws (i.e, water code, civil code, revised forestry code) on human activity and use. http://pcij.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/Joint-DENR-DILG-DND-DPWH-DOST-Adoption-of-Hazard-Zone-Classification.pdf 27 Pantawid Pamilyang Pilipino Program (4Ps) is a human development measure of the national government that provides conditional cash grants to the poorest of the poor, to improve the health, nutrition, and the education of children aged 0-18. http://www.officialgazette.gov.ph/programs/conditional-cash-transfer/

http://pcij.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/Joint-DENR-DILG-DND-DPWH-DOST-Adoption-of-Hazard-Zone-Classification.pdf

http://pcij.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/Joint-DENR-DILG-DND-DPWH-DOST-Adoption-of-Hazard-Zone-Classification.pdf

http://www.officialgazette.gov.ph/programs/conditional-cash-transfer/


As per the new SSK design proposed by Build Change, the number of lumbers necessary per house is reduced significantly which shall make the intervention more feasible as it is expected that these supplies are procured only if there is an activation. Pre-procurement will ensure the feasibility of the roof strengthening, while the supply of the tools (hammer, saw), the lumbers and plywood, as well as protection material, once the activation is confirmed, would ensure the wall strengthening. It is foreseen that some of these latest supplies might not be available systematically 3 days prior to landfall which would only hamper the wall strengthening. Feasibility of early harvesting of Abaca was confirmed through the simulation exercise conducted in Catanduanes (in July 2019). Abaca trees should be cut at a mature stage, or trimmed, in farms which are not too close to main roads (as the fiber quality would be lower) but not too far from road as RC volunteers need to supervise the work of the abacaleros, and as risk of landslides are high in remote areas especially if there are heavy rains. Maps of Abaca farms are available in certain municipalities and will help the validation of the target farms. For early harvesting of rice, numerous LGUs in the Philippines have been advocating for this Early Action28 though it is not yet systematized and requires manpower and specific equipment. Department of Agriculture in PRC target areas is willing to support this EA with the use of their combined harvesters. Finally, livestock evacuation was tested in September, and the only main concern was the identification of a proper space for evacuation (which should not be flood prone, and must remain accessible from the road, nearby an evacuation center for human). The proper planning and further testing will allow the PRC and its partners to replicate this Early Action in a short lead time.

One possible bottleneck remains the pre identification of beneficiaries and the quick mobilization of the barangay committee on the day of the activation which would be involved in the validation of the beneficiaries list – this is addressed by implementing a thorough orientation of the shortlisted barangays at an early stage, on BARCOM and how it can help FbF, prior to any possible activation.

6. Process of the implementation

6.1 Preparatory actions

Prepositioning of SSK material Considering the lead time of 3 days for Typhoon Early Actions, it is necessary to pre-procure and pre-position part of the Shelter Strengthening Kits, needed for strengthening the roof: the 10mm nylon ropes, nails, tie wire, as well as the iron bars. This SSK material will be kept in a PRC warehouse in each of the target regions:

➢ For North Luzon, in Subic warehouse (250 partial SSK) ➢ For Bicol, in Albay warehouse (250 partial SSK) ➢ For East Visayas, use warehouse of Tacloban (750 partial SSK) ➢ For Cebu, warehouse of Cebu city (250 partial SSK) ➢ For Mindanao, use warehouse of Surigao del Sur (500 partial SSK)

28 https://www.pna.gov.ph/articles/1047558

https://www.pna.gov.ph/articles/1047558


Fig 33: location of the regional warehouses The tools (hammer, saw), the lumbers and plywood, as well as protection material, will be purchased with local suppliers and delivered to the target areas only if the activation is confirmed. Printing of IEC 3,000 copies of the IEC for SSK will be printed, to be distributed to houses type 1, 2 and 3. Then 3,000 copies of the IEC for evacuation of livestock will be printed, to be provided to all shortlisted barangays. Readiness Readiness costs are currently being covered by the FbF project, with for instance the salary of a Chapter Project Officer position, in each of the target regions, or for the trainings and simulations organized on the Early Actions and on FbF in general. To ensure the sustainability of the activation and the management of the EAP, it is for instance expected that a minimum of 30 volunteers should be trained on FbF in every chapter: training costs may be covered by the EAP at a later stage.

6.2 Actions on Day -4 (alert stage)

As soon as a typhoon is approaching the Philippines Area of Responsibility (PAR), an automatic ‘alert’ message is sent to the FbF technical advisor copy to the Disaster Management Services (DMS) of the PRC. This message will contain the 510 impact forecast map as well as the combined vulnerability

Subic warehouse

Albay warehouse

Cebu warehouse

Surigao del sur warehouse

Tacloban warehouse


index for all municipalities at risk. This message will be repeated every 6 hours till landfall or till the exit of the Philippines Area of Responsibility. Thus, 4 days before impact, the FbF technical advisor can monitor the typhoon impact forecasts and when possible, contact PAGASA focal point at the Weather division to access their typhoon forecasts every 6 hours. As threat level is growing, concerned chapters are advised to get prepared for possible activation the day after. An ‘Alert’ message (see Annex 12) shall be sent by the PRC Operations Center (OpCen) to the concerned chapters, with the impact maps of 510. Funding shall be uploaded to target chapters to support the purchase of the remaining material for SSK and/ or for the payment of the Cash-for-Work, in case the activation is confirmed the day after. SSK items stored in regional warehouses should be prepared and transported to concerned chapters on day -4 (with the final dispatching up to the barangays to be done on day -3), while suppliers should be contacted for the remaining SSK items (with procurement possibly confirmed on day -3). The concerned chapters must participate to provincial Pre Disaster Risk Assessment (PDRA) meeting and collect information on the most at-risk municipalities and barangays, and agree with their local partners on the Early Actions to be implemented (if the trigger is confirmed the day after). Then orientation of volunteers on planned Early Action(s) is done at the Chapter, in line with the chosen municipalities and barangays (chapter may report to NHQ on the status of targeted LGUs). The final repartition of targeted numbers of barangays between provinces at higher risk (if more than one may activate) must be decided in coordination with NHQ, based on predicted impact, accessibility of LGUs (and feasibility of the EA) and confirmed availability of volunteers. The FbF team will then inform its partners (OCHA, WFP, FAO, START network, PAGASA, DILG, OCD) on the possible activation and on the initial preparation work done by chapters and NHQ – at the NDRRMC meeting and at the ICCG meeting. Detailed Protocols for the alert phase are provided in annex 13. It must be noted that the preparation of the Early Actions is part of a broader work for the chapters: usually, chapters would also assign staff and volunteers in a number of tasks such as Health and Welfare, evacuation, assessment, WASH and Logistics, Search and Rescue, or Ambulance service, and would also be mobilized on the preparation of the possible response (post disaster). FbF can be complementary from the work of the assessment, the logistic or the evacuation teams, and shall contribute to the preparation of the response with the pre-screening of most at-risk LGUs and the impact forecasts.

6.3 Actions from Day -3 (activation stage) to Day 0

Activation phase starts on Day -3 once the technical advisor confirms that the predicted impact is reaching the trigger level (with the use of the impact maps produced by 510): a ‘trigger’ message is sent to the concerned chapters to confirm the activation of the Typhoon EAP (see Annex 12). Use of the combined vulnerability index (in 510 dashboard) helps the DMS team to identify the municipalities where (i) impact is predicted to be the highest and (ii) where vulnerabilities are highest. This identification will also take into account the actual context in the province(s), such as accessibility of roads, or latest weather conditions. The chapters that are concerned by the impending event must confirm the selection of municipalities for the intervention and prepare the list of beneficiaries for the most at-risk barangays. They inform the concerned barangays of the confirmed intervention, and set a meeting with the barangay committee, in each target barangay, to confirm the beneficiaries list (SSK, Cash for Work) as early as possible on day -3.


Implementation of the distribution/ installation of the SSK, or early harvesting of crops, clearing of drainages, and livestock evacuation shall start on day -3, and shall be completed the following day (day -2), or as early as possible on day -1 as pre-emptive evacuations shall be completed ahead of the landfall (on day -1).

Fig 33: simplified implementation process

7. MEAL

7.1 EAP Implementation Monitoring

In case of an activation of the Typhoon EAP, it is crucial that the FbF project team can report on the effective implementation of the Early Actions, as per the planned process informed in this document. Key information that shall be monitored are the following:

• Trigger level;

• List of beneficiaries submitted to the barangay validation committee (and approved);

• List of beneficiaries having received the support;

• Feedback of beneficiaries on the intervention (through a close out meeting, tentatively a month after the activation, depending on the situation on the ground);

• Consistency of the support with the plan (amount received, material provided, timeliness of the intervention).

To assess these elements, the following documents will be compiled by the FbF project:

• impact forecasts (510 maps)

• copy of the alert and trigger messages sent by OpCen

• beneficiaries lists and cards

• service contract for workers (see Annex 14)

7.2 Impact assessment of early action after activation In order to measure the impact of the typhoon early actions to a predicted threat, it is important to estimate how the intervention has changed the status of the beneficiaries of the early intervention in


affected areas, compared to affected people who didn’t receive the support. The FbF team will do this assessment with staff and volunteers from the concerned chapters few weeks after the intervention. Community Assessment of Impact of the Intervention shall comprise:

a) Damage and impact assessments (with ODK)29, random for 20% beneficiaries, in addition to similar number in non-intervention communities;

b) Narrative summary report. The evaluation of the impact of the intervention (including comparison with non-intervention communities in the affected areas), will be done after activation, and with a sample of 20%. The control area will tentatively comprise a similar number of responders.

7.3 Documentation of the lessons learnt

Debriefing after the activation will be organized when possible with the chapter and will involve the FbF team and the Disaster Management Services of the Red Cross, as well as the core group members in the targeted provinces. This ‘After Action Review’ shall ideally present the results of the damage and impact assessment as well as the evaluation of the intervention.

It is foreseen that such review will support the updating and the improvement of the typhoon EAP, looking critically to what went well and what challenges are faced in the preparation phase (from the prepositioning to the alert, on day -4), the triggering process, and the implementation of the Early Actions.

8. National Society Early Action Capacity

8.1 General capacity

As the country is regularly facing extreme natural events, PRC has acquired various capacities for preparedness and response, which would also be vital for the implementation of FbF. Recently, the “Preparedness for Effective Response” (PER) assessment, formerly known as Disaster Response Capacity Enhancement (DRCE) or Well-Prepared National Society (WPNS), was conducted with the PRC by a team of external evaluators. Key findings that can be relevant to the implementation of FbF are presented below.

• Hazard, Context, and Risk Analysis, Monitoring and Early Warning – Good Performance

o Monitoring and early warning is very strong in PRC as related to hydrometeorological emergencies (e.g. typhoons, flooding) as PRC is linked to the national weather forecasting organizations (e.g. PAGASA)

o DMS uses various (e.g. INFORM, government census data) and has used innovative forms of data collection (510 dashboard of NlRC) to identify multidimensional risks

o Does not appear to have centralized and accessible database/mapping of previous disasters or have completed analysis of trends.

• Emergency Response Procedures (SOPs) – partially exists

o PRC has draft of written guidelines, roles and responsibilities, command structures, coordination mechanisms among departments.

29 A particular form is available for the SSK use – see Annex 15


o Response procedures/checklists exist within different departments but does not appear to be consolidated.

o Chapter Administrators are knowledgeable of their roles and responsibilities during a response, however not documented; often based more on past experience and trainings. Risk of Chapter nonfunctional during a response if CA is unavailable.

o Decision-making authority and budget approvals often significantly affects the quality and timeliness of service delivery.

• Early Action Mechanisms – Good Performance

o PRC linked to national weather forecasting organization (PAGASA) and information is collected, translated, and relayed

o PRC maintains 24/7 operation center to send out messages and they include a call-back number to contact them

o Through RC143 community volunteers’ network, PRC is able to communicate with community members for alerts and response actions

o Alerts and early actions exist structured through a trigger-based system with pre-defined criteria

• Beneficiary selection – Good performance

o DMS has within their DM Operation Manual, general guidance on beneficiary selection.

o PRC uses barangay recovery committees (BaReCom) to aid in the identification of those affected. Results are presented back to communities at assemblies.

o Likely varying between chapters, responders use standardized forms for data collection. Limited use of mobile data collection.

• Emergency Operation Center (EOC) – High performance

o PRC’s EOC, once activated, is strong RCM example of a cross departmental central command and control facility responsible for carrying out disaster/crisis management functions. The EOC is in part related to the physical space, but its strength reflects the team coordination and collaboration.

o There is dedicated space for operational management to convene. o There are assigned staff for ensuring EOC functionality on a 24/7 basis. o There are system backups and redundancies, and specific procedures for the EOC

activation.

• Coordination with Authorities – Good Performance

o PRC is officially part of the national and local humanitarian coordination system

through the NDRRMC, RDRRMC, PDRRMC, and MDRRMC.

o PRC role is well articulated in the Republic Act 10072 (Red Cross Law) as well as the

Republic Act 10121 (Philippines DRRM Act of 2010)

o PRC has been one of the original members of the NDRRMC (and is also the only non-

government member) since 1972

o PRC has established good coordination and communication lines with authorities at

different levels, which would enable PRC to better understand government capacities

to respond, and where PRC is best positioned to support as an auxiliary

o PRC has good connections with local levels, often with local authorities

o PRC has been involved in many simulation and drill exercises with public authorities

at NHQ and chapter levels


• Coordination with Local Community level responders – Good performance

o As identified in the draft Playbook, there are connections between the community, chapter and HQ.

o Although at times informal, information sharing from communities to chapters is effective in practice.

o Information is collected from communities to support decision-making at chapter and HQ levels, with regard to response actions.

o Chapters have established communication lines with RCAT143 team leads, to collect information, share early warning messages, and mobilize resources.

o RCATs form the community response structure, and are often part of the local authorities.

o Good connections with BARECOM and other local response groups.

• Finance and admin policy and emergency procedures – needs improvement

o Draft Finance Manual contains emergency procedures. PRC has internal financial controls that are followed, but there is a need for a ‘fast-lane’ to expedite procedures during emergencies.

o Funds can be released with electronic approval from SG, and documentation is regularized the following day.

o Signing authorities are very low and centralized; typically all approvals go to the SG which prevents timely operational response.

o Noted there is a bureaucratic and paperwork-intense approval process. o There is an over-reliance on memos/directives to facilitate decision making from

leadership, and few agreed-upon policies to follow as a alternative.

• Logistics, procurement and supply chain – needs improvement

o A clear logistics function exists within PRC, managing procurement, warehousing, transportation, and fleet. However it is noted that many of the PRC service departments (e.g. DMS, Health, WASH) have their own parallel logistic functions.

o Process lead time appears long, up to 2 months as per some user experience, however no procurement follow up, data base or dashboard exist, therefore no information on the procurement follow up is provided along the process to the requester.

o Procurement Process has multiple and heavy approval process and the signatory rights are centralized to higher management.

o The process of dispatching a vehicle for transporting cargo takes minimum of three days due to excessive approval process for any planned expenditure over PHP 3000.

o 10 Warehouses located throughout the country.

• Staff and volunteer management – partially exists

o Appears there are no approved expedited recruitment procedures in emergency, including rapid scaling-up (i.e. fast lane).

o Formally approved expedited procedures do not appear to exist for accepting spontaneous volunteers.

o No consolidate and accessible database exists showing HR/VR information, trainings, capacities, etc. Exists in many different locations among different departments.

o HR recently developed checklist for emergency response, however not tested or formalized.

o Previous evaluation findings indicate long delays in issuing contracts, often leading to delays in staff getting paid.


o Volunteers need to pay their own insurance which may discourage volunteer engagement.

o Volunteer engagement is ad hoc, typically dependent onmanagement/leadership of chapters and resources available.

It should be well noted that if on one hand the strengths of PRC will contribute to the FbF intervention, on another hand, the gaps identified by this assessment are opportunities for the project to further explore procedures that can contribute to the overall NS functioning.

8.2 Human resources

In order to deliver the services at a national scope, PRC put up chapters in, as of this moment, 78 of the 82 provinces. Since 2018, there are 108 chapters strategically located in these provinces, ensuring a broad footing at provincial, municipal, and barangay level.

Every chapter has their own capacity that enables them to execute various services deliveries and respond to the immediate needs of their areas of responsibilities. In case a chapter is not well capacitated to respond immediately, then it is always a practice that strong nearby chapter will support them. Main capacity that is evident in majority of the chapters is the presence of large-network of volunteers. There 2 kinds of volunteers: (1) Red Cross Action Team (RCAT) and (2) Red Cross 143. The first one is chapter-based volunteers that are well trained to key services such as disaster management, safety service, health, WASH, etc. All the 19 chapters involved in the Typhoon EAP development in 2018 have well-established RCAT. The latter is community-based volunteers that are well oriented to Red Cross, its different services, and with main tasks to predict, plan, prepare, practice, report, and respond. From the 19 chapters, all have established RC143, but not saturating all barangays. From the different chapters as well, there are National Disaster Response Team (NDRT), which is a PRC response tool, comprising of trained personnel (PRC staff and volunteers) who are equipped with knowledge and skills in disaster response management with specialization in shelter, logistics, telecommunications and livelihoods and who are deployable anywhere in the country at any time in case the need arises to support PRC operations. From the 6 pilot chapters NDRTs are scattered and is always on standby for possible deployment. For the EAP activation, these volunteers will be activated by the chapters, to be mobilized in implementing early actions. It is planned that they will be oriented on FbF, and trained on the specificities of a certain early action.

8.3 Thematic capacities

With the vast experience of PRC in disaster operations, it gained knowledge and experience necessary to implement effectively the EAP.

• Shelter – provision of shelter assistance is one of the key interventions PRC is providing to the affected households after disaster. Though current intervention is designed for the aftermath of a disaster, based from it, it enables PRC to analyze and formulate what can be done before and design a shelter strengthening kit. There are technical people within the national society that helped in the overall formulation of implementing shelter strengthening, from the designs,


items/materials, monitoring, training staff and volunteers, and other relevant matters pertaining to the early action.

• Cash for Work - is another assistance being provided by PRC, usually after disaster. Works were across different sectors such as link in shelter, WASH, livelihood, health, DRR, and others. Specific for the EAP it is cash for work link to shelter and livelihood. Process, tools, and forms are in place already, however, specific for FbF, lessening of forms are necessary in order to fit in the short lead.

8.3 Strategies and plans

PRC 2017 – 2020 Strategy takes an organization-wide approach to strengthening institutional response across different sectors, and its ability to respond effectively and efficiently to emergencies. In particular, FbF will support its first goal which intends to establish “safe and resilient communities”. Goal 1: Safe and Resilient Community “Strengthen vulnerable communities through integrated and inclusive humanitarian services and development programs that build safety and resilience against natural and human-induced hazards.” A draft contingency guideline is in place, with components which can be link to FbF, specifically the triggers and early actions. As of this moment, detailed integration of FbF is still yet to be done by PRC. It is expected that the FbF simulation exercises in 2020 will be linked to the Emergency Response simulation of the PRC, in at least two provinces.


9. Finance

9.1 Prepositioning

A1 – North Luzon (250 SSK prepositioned in Manila)

B1 – Bicol (250 SSK prepositioned in Albay)

C1 – East Visayas (1000 SSK prepositioned in Tacloban & Cebu)

D1 – Mindanao (500 SSK prepositioned in Agusan Sur)

Partial SSK (2,000 units) 110,580.00

Visibility (600 units) 7,410.00

6000 IEC (SSK, livestock) 13,680.00

TOTAL 131,670.00 CHF

9.2 Activation

A2 – North Luzon B2 – Bicol C2 – East Visayas D2 – Mindanao

Lumber, plywood, tools 31,825.00 31,825.00 63,650.00 31,825.00

CFW – SSK installation 2,337.00 2,337.00 4,674.00 2,337.00

PPEs for workers 570.00 570.00 1,140.00 570.00

CFW – early harvesting 19,000.00 14,250.00 9,500.00 -

IEC printing livelihood 760.00 570.00 380.00 -

CFW – livestock evac. - 1,900.00 - 4,750.00

corral equipment - 7,600.00 - 19,000.00

Transport (RC staff, EA) 5,016.00 5,016.00 8,208.00 5,016.00

Insurance for workers 4,916.25 4,275.00 3,420.00 1,710.00

Volunteers allowance 2,052.00 2,052.00 2,736.00 2,052.00

Post distribution survey 570.00 570.00 570.00 570.00

TOTAL 67,046.25 CHF 70,965.00 CHF 94,278.00 CHF 67,830.00 CHF

TOTAL (direct costs) - - 225,948.00 CHF -

Depending on the scenario, A, B, C or D, cost of EA will differ: for the EAP budget, we consider only the highest Activation cost between A2, B2, C2 or D2. Hence, the budget for activating in East Visayas (C2) can cover costs of activation in any other region (A2, B2 or C2). See detailed budgets in Annex 16.


The budget for prepositioning is exceptionally high, reaching 58% of the EAP budget. In fact, the Shelter Strengthening Early Action can be done in a 3-days lead time only if we pre-position part of the strengthening kit items in the different regions most likely to be hit, to avoid any risk of not finding enough supplies locally, 3 days prior to landfall. Pre-positioned items (rope, nails, steel bar, tie wire, tools) amount up to 65% of the house strengthening kit budget and are essential to reinforce the roof. The rest of the items will be purchased only once the activation is confirmed, and are needed to strengthen the walls (which is not needed systematically).

10. Approval

This EAP has been officially approved by the PRC management – see letter of approval signed by both the Chairman and the Secretary General, in Annex 17.

11. Conclusion

This EAP is consolidated based on the experience of PRC in responding to a number of disastrous typhoons in the country, most recently typhoon Ompong (Mangkhut) in Northern Luzon. Numerous simulations and trainings, implemented with the support of the FbF project, allowed the concerned chapters and partners from provincial government to test, adapt and confirm a set of Early Actions that would address predicted impacts on livelihoods and housing. The FbF concept is gaining a lot of interest in the Philippines and at the time of finalizing this EAP, already 6 target provinces have informed of their plans to allocate part of their DRRM budget for Early Actions (West Samar, South Leyte, Camarines Norte, Compostela Valley, Aurora, and Davao Oriental). This is a great opportunity to mobilize additional funding from the government to replicate and expand the anticipatory actions for typhoons in the targeted areas.

forecast-based financing early action protocol typhoon

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