wmo typhoon landfall forecast demonstration project...
TRANSCRIPT
WMO Typhoon Landfall Forecast
Demonstration Project (TLFDP)
---- Progress Report
Oct., 2016
Presented by
Hui YU from Shanghai Typhoon Institute/CMA
Outline
• Backgrounds and objectives
• Implementation tasks and organization
• Main progress
• Future plan
• Proposed by Eastern China Regional Meteorological Center/
CMA during the IWTCLP-II in Shanghai, China, 19 – 23 Oct. 2009
• Adopted by the CAS-XV in Incheon, ROK, 18 – 25 Nov. 2009
• A component of the Shanghai MHEWS project
• 2010 Shanghai EXPO – the kick-off
• Implementing duration:
Phase I: 2010-2012
Phase II: 2013-2015
Phase III: 2016-2018
Backgrounds
• To enhance the ability of forecasters to issue timely and accurate
typhoon forecasts and strengthen the ability of decision-makers to
analyze and determine the accuracy of typhoon forecasts
• To demonstrate the performance of the most advanced typhoon
forecasting technique in the world
• To assess the WMO-TLFDP’s impacts on enhancing the typhoon
forecast service as well as its social and economic benefits
• To promote the implementation of the most up to date forecast
technique for landfall typhoons in typhoon-affected Members of WMO
• To enhance the capability of forecasting typhoon landfall for the
“Shanghai MHEWS” to enable SMS to provide enhanced typhoon
forecast service during Shanghai Expo 2010
Objectives
Implementation tasks
Collection of real-time forecast data
Verification of forecasts
Dissemination of products
Benefit Assessment
Forecast integration techniques, and reliability analyses
Main progress
• Real time data collection
• Products dissemination
• Forecast evaluation
• Forecast technique development
• Training, and demonstration
• Benefits assessment
Typhoon forecast products
providers (TFPPs)Full name Abbreviation Ways of contribution
1 Australian Bureau of Meteorology BOM Email
2 European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ECMWF FTP and via TIGGE
3 East China Regional Meteorological Centre of China Meteorological
Administration
ECRMC FTP
4 Hong Kong Observatory HKO GTS and FTP
5 Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology of China Meteorological
Administration
ITMM FTP and Intranet of CMA
6 Japan Meteorological Agency JMA GTS, FTP and via TIGGE
7 Joint Typhoon Warning Center of the United States JTWC GTS
8 Korea Meteorological Administration KMA GTS and via TIGGE
9 Meteorological Service of Canada MSC Via TIGGE
10 National Centers for Environmental Prediction of the United States NCEP Via TIGGE
11 National Hurricane Center of the United States NHC FTP
12 National Meteorological Center of China Meteorological Administration NMC/CMA GTS, FTP, Intranet of CMA and
via TIGGE
13 RSMC Tokyo Typhoon Center of the World Meteorological Organization RSMC Tokyo GTS
14 Shanghai Typhoon Institute of China Meteorological Administration STI FTP, Intranet of CMA and via
TIGGE
15 Tropical Cyclone Guidance Project of NCAR TCGP FTP
Products collected in real time
Type TFPP Track Intensity Wind Radii
2-D gridded surface
wind
2-D gridded precip.
3-D gridded model output
Official FCST HKOJTWCKMA
NMC/CMARSMC Tokyo
YYYYY
YYYYY
Y
Y (A)Y (A)
Global model ECMWFJMA
NMC/CMAYY
YY
YYY
YYY
YYY
Regional model
STIITMM
RMCEC
YY
YY
YYY
YYY
Y
Y
Ensemble prediction
ECMWFJMAKMAMSCNCEP
NMC/CMASTI
YYYYYYY
YYYYYYY
Consensus prediction
STI Y
Statistical prediction
HKONHC/USA
STI Y YY (P)
Y
Data Archiving
• All the related data and products of named
tropical cyclones since May 2010 are archived
by SMS
• Available to research, training and capacity-
building activities
Main progress
• Real time data collection
• Products dissemination
• Forecast evaluation
• Forecast technique development
• Training, and demonstration
• Benefits assessment
Shanghai Typhoon Warning Center Operational website
Released in July 2010
in Chinese, in support of
EXPO2010
-- a component of Shanghai MHEWS
MICAPS TC Plug-in
A tool for browsing and analyzing tropical cyclone information together with other data
from multiple sources. In support of EXPO2010
Strike probability
(EPS and super-ensemble)
Sample images
Gridded model output
High winds striking prob.
Track & intensity forecast and real time verification
FY-2E Satellite imagery
Main progress
• Real time data collection
• Products dissemination
• Forecast evaluation
• Forecast technique development
• Training, and demonstration
• Benefits assessment
Operational TC forecast verification practice in
the Northwest Pacific region
• The operational status of TC forecast
verification up to 2012 is analyzed on the
basis of an e-mail survey covering all the
Members of UNESCAP/WMO Typhoon
Committee
• Main conclusions
• Significant efforts have been focused on the
verification of TC forecast guidance by
operational forecast agencies in the region
• Only a few verification products are available
for the probabilistic forecasts from EPS
• Verification of TC precipitation and high wind
forecasts are also lacking sufficient attention
in the region
Yu, Chan, Brown, et al., 2012, TCRR
Invited talk at the 6th International
Verification Methods Workshop in
March 2014.
TC forecast evaluation research progress
• Forecasts of tropical cyclone track, intensity, and precipitation from operational
forecast agencies and deterministic NWP models since 2010 were evaluated to
reveal the current capability of TC forecast guidance over the western North
Pacific.
• The results were reported to the Sessions of Typhoon Committee annually from
2013 to 2015.
• Several papers have been published in peer-reviewed journals.
TC forecast evaluation for 2015
• Forecasts of track, intensity and genesis from operational forecast agencies,
deterministic NWP models, and EPSs were evaluated for tropical cyclones in
2015 in the western North Pacific region.
• The report is submitted to the 48th Session of the UNESCAP/WMO Typhoon
Committee and can be downloaded by
http://www.typhooncommittee.org/48th/4-TC48Tech.html.
Metrics for tropical cyclone forecast
verification
A number of comments were provided to the
authors of the WMO document “Verification
of tropical cyclone forecasts” (by JWGFVR),
with special attention given to increase the
visibility of related efforts in the western North
Pacific region. This document has been
published by the WMO and is available on the
website of the WWRP
(http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/arep/wwrp/ne
w/documents/WWRP2009-1_web_CD.pdf).
Main progress
• Real time data collection
• Products dissemination
• Forecast evaluation
• Forecast technique development
• Training, and demonstration
• Benefits assessment
EPS-based consensus forecast
method for TC track
m1
m2
m3
m4m…
mn-1
mn
Average SLT error of all members
Initial pointSelectedmembers
SLT forecast
LLT forecast
Latest Observation
Selected LLT ensemble mean after translating
EPS track forecasts (m1~ mn)
Observed track
Selective ensemble mean track after translating(SEAV or SEWE)
120E 125E 130E 120E 125E 130E
35N
30N
(a)
35N
30N
(b)
EPS member
best track
ECM
best track
SEAV
• Both single-EPS-based and multi-center-EPS-based forecast technique for
TC track are proposed by member selection based on errors at short lead
times.
• The idea is adopted by the forecasters in SMS and NMC/CMA since 2012
and two papers were published in peer-reviewed journals in 2014 and 2016.
Qi, Yu, and Chen, 2014, QJRMS
Du, Qi, and Cao, 2016, QJRMS
Multi-model consensus forecast
method for TC intensity
• A multi-model consensus forecast technique for TC intensity was developed
based on calibrated model outputs. A 28% (15-20%) skill at 12h (24-72h) is
obtained over the climatology and persistence technique for predicting TC
intensity.
• Two papers were published in peer-reviewed journals in 2013 and 2015.
The linear correlation coefficients between
initial TC intensity error and the intensity
forecast error of different models (%).
Scatter plot for the initial Pmin error and
24h forecast error.
Yu, Chen, et al. 2013, WAF
Intensity probability forecast technique
• An objective probabilistic climatology-based intensity forecast (PCIF) scheme is
developed for tropical cyclones over the northwestern Pacific, with a forecast
period of 120 h at 6-hourly intervals. The scheme can be either used as an
independent forecast guidance, or as a baseline for the skill assessment of other
probabilistic TC intensity forecast techniques.
• This work is published in peer-reviewed journal in 2016.
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
BS
SP
Lead time (h)
ALLSuperTYSTYTY
PCIF forecast for TC Haikui at 0000 UTC, 6 August 2012 The BSSP of the ECMWF-EPS(2011-2013)
Chen, Yu, et al. 2016, QJRMS
Main progress
• Real time data collection
• Products dissemination
• Forecast evaluation
• Forecast technique development
• Training, and demonstration
• Benefits assessment
Training courses, and Workshops
• June 2010, Shanghai
• 11 lecturers from 9 institutions
• Trainees: 20 forecasters working for
the World Expo 2010
• June 2012, Shanghai
• 11 lecturers from 9 institutions
• Trainees: 40 forecasters
Research fellowship projects
Seven research fellowship projects were
implemented as jointly supported by the
UNESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee,
STI and HKO. The successful applicants
of these projects visited STI or HKO for
one or two months and implemented
research on the topics covering TC
intensity forecast technique, rainfall
nowcasting technique, TC genesis
forecast evaluation technique, and TC
precipitation forecast evaluation technique.
Ms. Lethihai YEN
from Viet Nam (2013)
Mr. Boothum TANGLUMLEAD
from Thailand (2014)
Mr. Sang Il PAK
from DPRK (2014, 2015)
Mr. Yong Chol SONG
from DPRK (2014)
Shanghai Typhoon Warning Center
(STWC)
• A component of Shanghai Multi Hazard Early Warning System
• Monitor and forecast tropical cyclones in North West Pacific, especially those
with potential to affect Eastern China Region (ECR)
• Issue tropical cyclone warnings for ECR
WMO-TLFDP HomepageOperational website STWC
Data Collection
Verification
Main progress
• Real time data collection
• Products dissemination
• Forecast evaluation
• Forecast technique development
• Training, and demonstration
• Benefits assessment
Benefits assessment
• A series of surveys were carried out to assess the benefits of the
WMO-TLFDP
• The survey’s objects were divided into three groups: public users,
industrial and special users and meteorological forecasters
• The objective of the public user survey is to gauge the public’s
opinions on the accuracy of weather forecasts and typhoon
warnings issued by SMS
• The objective of the forecaster survey is to gauge the forecaster’s
opinions on the typhoon forecasting and on the typhoon objective
techniques during the project period
Future Plan
One research fellowship project will be implemented from 24
October to 23 November by two experts from DPRK. The project
will be jointly supported by the UNESCAP/WMO Typhoon
Committee and STI.
In the next two years (2017-2018), TLFDP will continue to work
closely with the UPDRAFT and Experiment on Typhoon Intensity
Change in Coastal Area (EXOTICCA, a UNESCAP/WMO
Typhoon Committee cross-cutting project) on the demonstration
and evaluation of TC intensity analysis and forecast techniques,
and precipitation forecast techniques.