forecast 2019 - iclr › wp-content › uploads › 2019 › 05 › ... · wildfire season forecast...
TRANSCRIPT
1
Wildfire Season Forecast
Forecast 2019May 17, 2019
Richard Carr, Wildland Fire Research Analyst, Canadian Forest Service, Natural Resources Canada
1
2
AgendaThis presentation
• Provides some background information
• Revisits last year’s fire season
• Summarizes current global and Canadian conditions
• Describes the forecast methodology
• Provides the 2019 forecast (May 1 run)
2
3
Background information
3
4
4
ECCC-CCCS Summer Temperature and
Precipitation Trends
5
5
Wildland fire in CanadaFire numbers and areas burned are highly variable• Area burned increasing (dotted orange line)
6
Forecasts: General points
6
Forecast maps are available on
• Canadian Wildland Fire Information System (CWFIS) web site: http://cwfis.cfs.nrcan.gc.ca
• North American Seasonal Forecast Assessment Outlook: http://www.predictiveservices.nifc.gov/outlooks/NA_Outlook.pdf
Forecasts may be based on:
• CWFIS information (may include data provided by provinces/territories)
• Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) seasonal forecasts
• Visual assessment of other climate model output (specific products)
7
A
Canadian Wildland Fire Information System (CWFIS)
The CWFIS provides: • Fire weather
• Fire behaviour
• Fire locations
• Interactive map
• Seasonal forecast and other information
URL:http://cwfis.cfs.nrcan.gc.ca
7
8
Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI) System
8
Temperature
Humidity,
Wind, Rain
Temperature,
Humidity,
Rain
WindTemperature,
Rain
Fire Weather
Observations
DCDrought Code
DMCDuff Moisture Code
ISIInitial Spread Index
BUIBuildup Index
FWIFire Weather Index
FFMCFine Fuel Moisture Code
Fire Behavior
Indexes
Fuel Moisture
Codes
Snow depth
Barometric Pressure
Horizontal Visibility
Cloud cover and type
Upper air data
DSR/MSR/SSRSeverity Rating
Seasonal forecasts use the severity rating anomaly
L
F
H
9
Climate Ensemble Data
Models used by ECCC’s Canadian Meteorological Centre (CMC):• Developed by Canadian Centre for Climate modeling and analysis (CCCma)
• Temperature, precipitation are inputs for our wildland fire seasonal forecast (wind also in the future)
• CanCM3 uses atmospheric model CanAM3 (AGCM3)
• CanCM4 uses atmospheric model CanAM4 (AGCM4)
• Each model uses 10-member ensembles producing 12-month forecasts
• CanSIPS: Canadian Seasonal to Interannual Prediction System
ENSO and other influences represented in climate models
9
10
10
El Niño – Southern Oscillation (ENSO)El Niño:• Warm ocean temperature anomaly in eastern Pacific; atmospheric
pressure higher over Darwin than Tahiti
La Niña:• Cold ocean temperature anomaly in eastern Pacific; atmospheric
pressure higher over Tahiti than Darwin
ENSO events: • May cause extreme global weather (floods, droughts)
• Persist 9-12 months; sometimes 2+ years
• Recur every 2 to 7 years
• Develop often during April-June
• Reach maximum strength Dec-Feb
11
11
Fire problems in ENSO Springs
El Niño: • Warm, windy,
and dry in western Canada
La Niña:•Arctic surface
highs bring dry air, strong wind around edges •Temperature may be cool
Summer fire problems may depend on other influences
Year DJF JFM FMA MAM AMJ MJJ JJA JAS ASO SON OND NDJ
1989 -1.7 -1.4 -1.1 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1
1990 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4
1991 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.8 1.2 1.5
1992 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.3 1.1 0.7 0.4 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.1
1993 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1
1994 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.7 1.0 1.1
1995 1.0 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.5 -0.8 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0
1996 -0.9 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 -0.5
1997 -0.5 -0.4 -0.1 0.3 0.8 1.2 1.6 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.4 2.4
1998 2.2 1.9 1.4 1.0 0.5 -0.1 -0.8 -1.1 -1.3 -1.4 -1.5 -1.6
1999 -1.5 -1.3 -1.1 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 -1.1 -1.1 -1.2 -1.3 -1.5 -1.7
2000 -1.7 -1.4 -1.1 -0.8 -0.7 -0.6 -0.6 -0.5 -0.5 -0.6 -0.7 -0.7
2001 -0.7 -0.5 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3
2002 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.1
2003 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.0 -0.3 -0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4
2004 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7
2005 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.6 -0.8
2006 -0.8 -0.7 -0.5 -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.9
2007 0.7 0.3 0.0 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.5 -0.8 -1.1 -1.4 -1.5 -1.6
2008 -1.6 -1.4 -1.2 -0.9 -0.8 -0.5 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.6 -0.7
2009 -0.8 -0.7 -0.5 -0.2 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.3 1.6
Year DJF JFM FMA MAM AMJ MJJ JJA JAS ASO SON OND NDJ
2010 1.5 1.3 0.9 0.4 -0.1 -0.6 -1.0 -1.4 -1.6 -1.7 -1.7 -1.6
2011 -1.4 -1.1 -0.8 -0.6 -0.5 -0.4 -0.5 -0.7 -0.9 -1.1 -1.1 -1.0
2012 -0.8 -0.6 -0.5 -0.4 -0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 -0.2
2013 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3
2014 -0.4 -0.4 -0.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.7
2015 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.5 1.8 2.1 2.4 2.5 2.6
2016 2.5 2.2 1.7 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.3 -0.6 -0.7 -0.7 -0.7 -0.6
2017 -0.3 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 -0.1 -0.4 -0.7 -0.9 -1.0
2018 -0.9 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.9 0.8
2019 0.8 0.8 0.8
Most area burned
2nd most area burned
Chisholm, AB
Kelowna, BC
Virginia Hills, AB
Slave Lake, AB
Fort McMurray, AB
Big years in BC
12
12
Sunspots
http://www.sidc.be/images/wolfmms.png
http://www.sidc.be/silso/IMAGES/GRAPHICS/wolfaml2.png
https://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/SunspotCycle.shtml
13
13
Pacific Decadal Oscillationhttps://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/elnino/decadal/pdo_month.htmlhttp://climate.ncsu.edu/climate/patterns/PDO.html
Warm phase Cold phase
-1 to +1
since late
2016
14
14
North Atlantic Oscillationhttp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.timeseries.gif
Moderate
positive values
past few months
https://climate.ncsu.edu/climate/patterns/nao
15
15
Effects most noticeable in
winter and spring
Higher mid-latitude zonal
winds with strong signal
Moisture transport across
Pacific?
Affects North Pacific and
Atlantic oscillations, blocking
“Cold phases” for western
North America – 7, 2, 3
Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO)
16
The 2018 Fire Season
16
17
17
2018 National Statistics
MB/ON
BC
ON/QC
Red line is 10-year mean
Blue bars are 2018 data
~6850 / 5616=122%
~2.3 / 2.65 (million ha) = 85%
18
18
2018 Season
BC, MB, ON, QC, NL, NB, and PC had more fires than normal
BC, MB, and ON had higher than normal area burned.
19
19
2018 Predictions
MarchJune
Weak “Modoki-ish”
ENSO, +- PDO, and
Madden-Julian
Oscillation may have
helped shape the
2018 season.
A
20
20
2018 Predictions – May and July runsJune July August
May run
July run
21
2019 Seasonal Prediction
Starting Conditions
21
22
22
2018 Fall conditions
BC: High DC more widespread, but not as extreme in south as fall 2017
Very similar pattern to fall 2017
23
23
2019 factorsMid-March heat wave
Many record highs in western Canada
Rapid snow melt
AWCN11 CWNT 200022
WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES
ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 6:22 P.M. MDT TUESDAY 19 MARCH 2019.
DISCUSSION. THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS SET NEW RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON MARCH 19, 2019 (VALUES GIVEN IN DEGREES CELSIUS):
FORT SIMPSON NEW RECORD OF 16.9 OLD RECORD OF 11.7 SET IN 1915 RECORDS STARTED IN 1895
FORT SMITH NEW RECORD OF 15.6 OLD RECORD OF 12.1 SET IN 1979 RECORDS STARTED IN 1913
HAY RIVER NEW RECORD OF 16.2 OLD RECORD OF 10.7 SET IN 1979 RECORDS STARTED IN 1893
NORMAN WELLS NEW RECORD OF 16.8 OLD RECORD OF 4.0 SET IN 1982 RECORDS STARTED IN 1943
YELLOWKNIFE NEW RECORD OF 4.2 OLD RECORD OF 1.2 SET IN 1995 RECORDS STARTED IN 1942
PLEASE NOTE THAT THIS SUMMARY MAY CONTAIN PRELIMINARY OR UNOFFICIAL INFORMATION
AND DOES NOT CONSTITUTE A COMPLETE OR FINAL REPORT.
END/PASPC
24
24
2019 current DC
East-central BC through northern Manitoba probably carries effects of ample 2018 rainfall
25
25
2019 Spring start-up conditions
Past 6 months precipitation:Dry in BC, Prairies and northernparts of the provinces
Snow depth anomaly (cm): May 13
CDM – end of April
26
ENSO, PDO – Current SST
26
Atmosphere
was late
synchronizing
with SST
pattern
IRI compared
this to the
2014-15 winter
El Nino onset
27
2019 Seasonal Prediction
Climate and CMC Forecasts
27
28
28
ENSO Forecasts
Spring predictability barrier: Short-term forecasts may be erratic; longer term peak events may be offset
Models predict weak El Nino through summer;maybe persisting into winter
29
29
ENSO Forecasts
Slowly decreasing El Nino likelihood through winter of 2019-20
30
30
Climate model uncertainty!
31
31
April 30 CanSIPS: June, July, August Prediction
32
32
April 30 CanSIPS: August, September, October Prediction
33
33
Other modelsWe make visual assessments of other models’ output.
These are temperature plots, but precipitation is also evaluated
34
34
Skill mapsCPC web pages show skill maps for one-month means
CanCM4 appears better than CanCM3 at temperature forecasts
CanCM3 appears better than CanCM4 at precipitation forecasts beyond 2 months
Note:
More yellow and green shows
the CM4 temperature prediction
(above, bottom) is better than
that of the CM3 (above, top). I
did not articulate this correctly
during the presentation.
Richard
35
2019 NRCan-CFS Seasonal Prediction
35
36
0 50 100 150
05
10
15
20
25
30
CYEG
Days from Apr 1
Te
mp
- c
m3
Seasonal Forecast Methodology1.Use fall conditions to help assess
spring start-up2. Calculate average daily weather
(once per year)
4. Calculate severity rating anomaly 3. Do seasonal predictions (MSR)
36
37
37
NRCan-CFS NASFAO and BN Maps
Visual assessment of other models’ predictions used in Briefing Notes (BN) and North American Seasonal Forecast Outlook Assessment (NASFAO)
+ =
38
38
NRCan-CFS Prediction: May run, for May and June
AnomalyPredicted values normalized against average weather
39
39
Season to Date - CIFFC
Fires: 87%
Area: 27%
40
40
CWFIS Situation Report
*
Weekly update
More graphics
available
41
41
NRCan-CFS Prediction: May run, for July
AnomalyPredicted values normalized against average weather
42
42
NRCan-CFS Prediction: May run, for August and September
AnomalyPredicted values normalized against average weather
43
Temperature Precipitation
Comox, BC, 2018 May run for reference
43
https://www.ndstudies.gov
Overall warm temperature prediction and positive SSR trend
44
Temperature Precipitation
Comox, BC, April 2019 run
44
https://www.ndstudies.gov
Comox: Compared to May 2018 run, summer increase starts earlier
45
Temperature Precipitation
Prince George, BC, May 2019 run
45
https://www.ndstudies.gov
Prince George: Dry and slightly warm
46
Temperature Precipitation
Fort Simpson, NT
46
https://www.ndstudies.gov
Fort Simpson: Warm CM4 offset by higher rainfall prediction normal season
47
Temperature Precipitation
La Ronge, SK
47
https://www.ndstudies.gov
La Ronge: CM4 warm temperature offset by rainfall
48
Temperature Precipitation
Halifax, NS
48
https://www.ndstudies.gov
Halifax: Higher indexes; maybe not high enough for concern. Possible increase in rain in late summer slows SSR (CM4).
49
• Our forecasts depend on climate model limitations• Predictions may change substantially with each new run• Early spring forecasts coincide with the ENSO predictability barrier
• Weather patterns can change partway through a month• Depict date ranges for start/end of trends?
• Normals are based on slightly over 100 weather stations
• Estimated snowmelt dates are based on station historical rate
49
Caveats …
50
• Include wind speed in calculations
• Use more stations (or gridded historical conditions) on which to base our normals
• Use model output to help establish forecast snowmelt dates
• Validation methods
• Include forecast data from other models
50
Possible improvements …
51
• Quick change from winter to spring in March!• Mid-spring cool spell• Dry in west and northern parts of provinces over past 6 months
• Medium-term climatic drivers are rather weak• May produce fluctuating weather patterns
• Current CanSIPS forecasts suggest eastern Pacific ridging
• Watch for improvements in coming years
51
Conclusions …
52
• Canada experiences fire (~7000 fires, 2.5 million ha per year)
• We can have serious interface fires in slow years•Or where seasonal forecast indicates normal or below normal conditions
• Check updates in the first week of each month
• Monitor daily conditions on provincial and/or CWFIS web sites
52
Remember …
Government of Ontario
53
53
Questions?Contact:
Richard CarrFire Research AnalystNatural Resources Canada –Canadian Forest Service
5320 122 Street NWEdmonton, AB, CanadaT6H 3S5825-510-1265
??
?
??