forecast 2017 - iclr · 3. incorporate environment canada’s seasonal predictions, 4. determine...
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: Forecast 2017 - ICLR · 3. Incorporate Environment Canada’s seasonal predictions, 4. Determine the fire severity based on the ratio of forecasted over average monthly severity rating](https://reader037.vdocuments.us/reader037/viewer/2022090607/605d555109aac321af74e901/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Wildfire Season Forecast
Forecast 2017 May 10, 2017
Dr. Kerry Anderson, Fire Research Scientist, Canadian Forest Service, Natural Resources Canada
![Page 2: Forecast 2017 - ICLR · 3. Incorporate Environment Canada’s seasonal predictions, 4. Determine the fire severity based on the ratio of forecasted over average monthly severity rating](https://reader037.vdocuments.us/reader037/viewer/2022090607/605d555109aac321af74e901/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Fire Season Prediction
for Canada, 2017
Kerry Anderson
Canadian Forest Service
![Page 3: Forecast 2017 - ICLR · 3. Incorporate Environment Canada’s seasonal predictions, 4. Determine the fire severity based on the ratio of forecasted over average monthly severity rating](https://reader037.vdocuments.us/reader037/viewer/2022090607/605d555109aac321af74e901/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Introduction
The Canadian Forest Service present monthly and
seasonal forecast maps through the Canadian
Wildland Fire Information System (CWFIS).
These are based on Environment Canada’s monthly
and seasonal forecasts, information contained in the
CWFIS, and advice provided by provincial agencies.
This presentation will summarize the current
conditions in Canada and a forecast for the 2017 fire
season.
![Page 4: Forecast 2017 - ICLR · 3. Incorporate Environment Canada’s seasonal predictions, 4. Determine the fire severity based on the ratio of forecasted over average monthly severity rating](https://reader037.vdocuments.us/reader037/viewer/2022090607/605d555109aac321af74e901/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Canadian Wildland Fire
Information System
The Canadian
Wildland Fire
Information System
calculates the fire
weather and fire
behaviour
conditions across
the country.
Maps are displayed
over the Internet.
http://cwfis.cfs.nrcan.gc.ca/
![Page 5: Forecast 2017 - ICLR · 3. Incorporate Environment Canada’s seasonal predictions, 4. Determine the fire severity based on the ratio of forecasted over average monthly severity rating](https://reader037.vdocuments.us/reader037/viewer/2022090607/605d555109aac321af74e901/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Methodology
1. Calculate spring start-up conditions based on fall drought
code (DC) values and over-winter precipitation amounts,
2. Calculate average daily weather for weather stations across
country,
3. Incorporate Environment Canada’s seasonal predictions,
4. Determine the fire severity based on the ratio of forecasted
over average monthly severity rating (MSR).
![Page 6: Forecast 2017 - ICLR · 3. Incorporate Environment Canada’s seasonal predictions, 4. Determine the fire severity based on the ratio of forecasted over average monthly severity rating](https://reader037.vdocuments.us/reader037/viewer/2022090607/605d555109aac321af74e901/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Methodology 1. Fall conditions to Spring startup 2. Calculate average daily weather
4. Calculate fire weather anomaly 3. Apply seasonal predictions
0 50 100 150
05
10
15
20
25
30
CYEG
Days from Apr 1
Te
mp
- c
m3
![Page 7: Forecast 2017 - ICLR · 3. Incorporate Environment Canada’s seasonal predictions, 4. Determine the fire severity based on the ratio of forecasted over average monthly severity rating](https://reader037.vdocuments.us/reader037/viewer/2022090607/605d555109aac321af74e901/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Ensemble Forecasts
The Canadian Meteorological Centre (CMC) of Environment
Canada has been providing temperature and precipitation
probabilistic forecasts based on an ensemble of ten
integrations of two climate models developed by Canadian
Center for Climate modeling and analysis (CCCma)
1. CANCM3 (which uses the atmospheric model CANAM3 (also known as
model AGCM3))
2. CANCM4 (which uses the atmospheric model CANAM4 (also known as
model AGCM4))
Forecasts are provided for the next twelve months.
![Page 8: Forecast 2017 - ICLR · 3. Incorporate Environment Canada’s seasonal predictions, 4. Determine the fire severity based on the ratio of forecasted over average monthly severity rating](https://reader037.vdocuments.us/reader037/viewer/2022090607/605d555109aac321af74e901/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Ensemble Forecasts
Predicted temperatures and precipitation amounts
are entered into the Canadian FWI system.
Temperature Precipitation
![Page 9: Forecast 2017 - ICLR · 3. Incorporate Environment Canada’s seasonal predictions, 4. Determine the fire severity based on the ratio of forecasted over average monthly severity rating](https://reader037.vdocuments.us/reader037/viewer/2022090607/605d555109aac321af74e901/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Ensemble Forecasts
The ensemble approach
provides a measure of
confidence indicated by
the spread of the
ensemble members.
June
![Page 10: Forecast 2017 - ICLR · 3. Incorporate Environment Canada’s seasonal predictions, 4. Determine the fire severity based on the ratio of forecasted over average monthly severity rating](https://reader037.vdocuments.us/reader037/viewer/2022090607/605d555109aac321af74e901/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
2016 Fire Season
![Page 11: Forecast 2017 - ICLR · 3. Incorporate Environment Canada’s seasonal predictions, 4. Determine the fire severity based on the ratio of forecasted over average monthly severity rating](https://reader037.vdocuments.us/reader037/viewer/2022090607/605d555109aac321af74e901/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
2016 Prediction
![Page 12: Forecast 2017 - ICLR · 3. Incorporate Environment Canada’s seasonal predictions, 4. Determine the fire severity based on the ratio of forecasted over average monthly severity rating](https://reader037.vdocuments.us/reader037/viewer/2022090607/605d555109aac321af74e901/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
2016 Prediction The 2016 fire season was actually a below-average year with
below-average number of fires and area burned.
4,832 fires
(10 year avg: 6,120)
1,390,376.22 ha
(avg: 2,560,575 ha)
Numbers based August 31, 2016 CIFFC situational report
![Page 13: Forecast 2017 - ICLR · 3. Incorporate Environment Canada’s seasonal predictions, 4. Determine the fire severity based on the ratio of forecasted over average monthly severity rating](https://reader037.vdocuments.us/reader037/viewer/2022090607/605d555109aac321af74e901/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
2016 Prediction
The 2016 fire season started out very early with fires in Alberta and British
Columbia. In June, the conditions dropped with the collapse of El Nino.
NWT and Saskatchewan saw some fire activity in July
![Page 14: Forecast 2017 - ICLR · 3. Incorporate Environment Canada’s seasonal predictions, 4. Determine the fire severity based on the ratio of forecasted over average monthly severity rating](https://reader037.vdocuments.us/reader037/viewer/2022090607/605d555109aac321af74e901/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
2016 Prediction
August
May June
July September
April
![Page 15: Forecast 2017 - ICLR · 3. Incorporate Environment Canada’s seasonal predictions, 4. Determine the fire severity based on the ratio of forecasted over average monthly severity rating](https://reader037.vdocuments.us/reader037/viewer/2022090607/605d555109aac321af74e901/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
August
May June
July September
April
2016 Fire Activity
![Page 16: Forecast 2017 - ICLR · 3. Incorporate Environment Canada’s seasonal predictions, 4. Determine the fire severity based on the ratio of forecasted over average monthly severity rating](https://reader037.vdocuments.us/reader037/viewer/2022090607/605d555109aac321af74e901/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
North American Seasonal Assessment
The forecast included the northern Prairies/southern NWT and
western Ontario as areas of concern in the North American
Seasonal Assessment. http://www.predictiveservices.nifc.gov/outlooks/NA_Outlook.pdf
![Page 17: Forecast 2017 - ICLR · 3. Incorporate Environment Canada’s seasonal predictions, 4. Determine the fire severity based on the ratio of forecasted over average monthly severity rating](https://reader037.vdocuments.us/reader037/viewer/2022090607/605d555109aac321af74e901/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
2016 Prediction
In summary, the April forecast correctly
predicted the extreme conditions in Alberta,
which led to the Fort McMurray fire.
Ontario was expected to see above-average
conditions in May and June, which did not
happen.
And as expected, conditions across Canada
moderated over summer with the collapse of
El Nino.
![Page 18: Forecast 2017 - ICLR · 3. Incorporate Environment Canada’s seasonal predictions, 4. Determine the fire severity based on the ratio of forecasted over average monthly severity rating](https://reader037.vdocuments.us/reader037/viewer/2022090607/605d555109aac321af74e901/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
2017 Seasonal Prediction
Starting Conditions
![Page 19: Forecast 2017 - ICLR · 3. Incorporate Environment Canada’s seasonal predictions, 4. Determine the fire severity based on the ratio of forecasted over average monthly severity rating](https://reader037.vdocuments.us/reader037/viewer/2022090607/605d555109aac321af74e901/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Spring Start-up Conditions
The Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index
(FWI) System allows for the carry-over of fall
conditions to the spring.
This is handled by the Drought Code (DC).
All other moisture codes in the FWI system are
reset.
![Page 20: Forecast 2017 - ICLR · 3. Incorporate Environment Canada’s seasonal predictions, 4. Determine the fire severity based on the ratio of forecasted over average monthly severity rating](https://reader037.vdocuments.us/reader037/viewer/2022090607/605d555109aac321af74e901/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
Fall Conditions
Fall DC values show
extreme (dry) conditions
in the Yukon and NWT.
Central Alberta and
northern Saskatchewan
were much wetter than
normal due to the
summer rains.
Much of the remainder
of Canada were in
conditions not far from
normal for the fall. Oct 4, 2016
http://cwfis.cfs.nrcan.gc.ca/maps/fw?type=dc&year=2015&month=10&day=15
![Page 21: Forecast 2017 - ICLR · 3. Incorporate Environment Canada’s seasonal predictions, 4. Determine the fire severity based on the ratio of forecasted over average monthly severity rating](https://reader037.vdocuments.us/reader037/viewer/2022090607/605d555109aac321af74e901/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
Spring Start-up Conditions
Canadian
Drought Monitor
indicates dry to
moderate
drought
conditions in the
Yukon, northern
BC and Alberta,
and parts of
eastern
Ontario/western
Quebec.
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/temp-and-precip/drought/nadm/nadm-maps.php
![Page 22: Forecast 2017 - ICLR · 3. Incorporate Environment Canada’s seasonal predictions, 4. Determine the fire severity based on the ratio of forecasted over average monthly severity rating](https://reader037.vdocuments.us/reader037/viewer/2022090607/605d555109aac321af74e901/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
Overwinter Snowfall
Snow amounts
were well below
normal in Yukon,
Northern BC and
Northern Alberta.
Elsewhere,
Canada received
average snowfall
amounts.
http://www4.agr.gc.ca/DW-GS/current-actuelles.jspx?lang=eng&jsEnabled=true
![Page 23: Forecast 2017 - ICLR · 3. Incorporate Environment Canada’s seasonal predictions, 4. Determine the fire severity based on the ratio of forecasted over average monthly severity rating](https://reader037.vdocuments.us/reader037/viewer/2022090607/605d555109aac321af74e901/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
Overwinter Snowfall
Snow-water
equivalent, as
derived from
SSM/I satellite
data, show the
snow-melt over
the Prairies with
significant snow
amounts still
over northern
Saskatchewan
and Manitoba. https://www.ccin.ca/home/ccw/snow/current/swe
![Page 24: Forecast 2017 - ICLR · 3. Incorporate Environment Canada’s seasonal predictions, 4. Determine the fire severity based on the ratio of forecasted over average monthly severity rating](https://reader037.vdocuments.us/reader037/viewer/2022090607/605d555109aac321af74e901/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
Overwinter Snowfall
Snow has now
withdrawn from
most of Canada with
Alberta and much of
western and
southern Canada
snowfree.
http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow_usa.gif
![Page 25: Forecast 2017 - ICLR · 3. Incorporate Environment Canada’s seasonal predictions, 4. Determine the fire severity based on the ratio of forecasted over average monthly severity rating](https://reader037.vdocuments.us/reader037/viewer/2022090607/605d555109aac321af74e901/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
Spring Start-up Conditions
The late spring has kept
much of Canada in below
normal fire danger
conditions.
Currently, northern Alberta
is showing signs of high
fire danger.
http://http://cwfis.cfs.nrcan.gc.ca/
![Page 26: Forecast 2017 - ICLR · 3. Incorporate Environment Canada’s seasonal predictions, 4. Determine the fire severity based on the ratio of forecasted over average monthly severity rating](https://reader037.vdocuments.us/reader037/viewer/2022090607/605d555109aac321af74e901/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
Spring Start-up Conditions
Compared to last year,
the 2017 fire season is
looking very quiet.
http://http://cwfis.cfs.nrcan.gc.ca/
![Page 27: Forecast 2017 - ICLR · 3. Incorporate Environment Canada’s seasonal predictions, 4. Determine the fire severity based on the ratio of forecasted over average monthly severity rating](https://reader037.vdocuments.us/reader037/viewer/2022090607/605d555109aac321af74e901/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
2017 Seasonal Prediction
ENSO Pattern
![Page 28: Forecast 2017 - ICLR · 3. Incorporate Environment Canada’s seasonal predictions, 4. Determine the fire severity based on the ratio of forecasted over average monthly severity rating](https://reader037.vdocuments.us/reader037/viewer/2022090607/605d555109aac321af74e901/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
ENSO Pattern
El Niño–Southern Oscillation is a band of warm ocean water
that can develop off the western coast of South America.
Extremes in this oscillations cause extreme weather (such as
floods and droughts) in many regions of the world.
El Niño and La Nina events tend to develop during the period
April-June and they
• tend to reach their maximum
strength during Dec-Feb,
• typically persist for 9-12 months,
though occasionally persisting for
up to 2 years,
• typically recur every 2 to 7 years.
![Page 29: Forecast 2017 - ICLR · 3. Incorporate Environment Canada’s seasonal predictions, 4. Determine the fire severity based on the ratio of forecasted over average monthly severity rating](https://reader037.vdocuments.us/reader037/viewer/2022090607/605d555109aac321af74e901/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
La Niña and El Niño Effects
La Niña and El Niño affects the jet stream pattern, which has significant
impacts on temperature and precipitation patterns in Canada.
Summer
La Niña El Niño
![Page 30: Forecast 2017 - ICLR · 3. Incorporate Environment Canada’s seasonal predictions, 4. Determine the fire severity based on the ratio of forecasted over average monthly severity rating](https://reader037.vdocuments.us/reader037/viewer/2022090607/605d555109aac321af74e901/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
ENSO Pattern
http://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/
Currently, La Niña
have given way to
neutral
conditions.
Models are
suggesting El
Niño conditions
may develop late
summer.
![Page 31: Forecast 2017 - ICLR · 3. Incorporate Environment Canada’s seasonal predictions, 4. Determine the fire severity based on the ratio of forecasted over average monthly severity rating](https://reader037.vdocuments.us/reader037/viewer/2022090607/605d555109aac321af74e901/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
ENSO Pattern
http://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/
The Canadian
CMC CANSIP
model is
predicting
neutral conditions into
July (lower than
most models).
![Page 32: Forecast 2017 - ICLR · 3. Incorporate Environment Canada’s seasonal predictions, 4. Determine the fire severity based on the ratio of forecasted over average monthly severity rating](https://reader037.vdocuments.us/reader037/viewer/2022090607/605d555109aac321af74e901/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
ENSO Pattern
http://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/
Consensus
suggests El
Niño to
develop in
August.
![Page 33: Forecast 2017 - ICLR · 3. Incorporate Environment Canada’s seasonal predictions, 4. Determine the fire severity based on the ratio of forecasted over average monthly severity rating](https://reader037.vdocuments.us/reader037/viewer/2022090607/605d555109aac321af74e901/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
2017 Seasonal Prediction
CMC Forecasts
![Page 34: Forecast 2017 - ICLR · 3. Incorporate Environment Canada’s seasonal predictions, 4. Determine the fire severity based on the ratio of forecasted over average monthly severity rating](https://reader037.vdocuments.us/reader037/viewer/2022090607/605d555109aac321af74e901/html5/thumbnails/34.jpg)
Seasonal Forecasts
Monthly Forecast:
Temperature
anomalies are
average for most of
Canada with the
exception of part of
northern Alberta
and
Saskatchewan.
May 8 – June 5
http://http://weather.gc.ca/saisons/image_e.html?img=mfe1t_s
![Page 35: Forecast 2017 - ICLR · 3. Incorporate Environment Canada’s seasonal predictions, 4. Determine the fire severity based on the ratio of forecasted over average monthly severity rating](https://reader037.vdocuments.us/reader037/viewer/2022090607/605d555109aac321af74e901/html5/thumbnails/35.jpg)
Ensemble Forecasts
Day 8 to 14 Outlooks:
Temperatures are
expected to rise in BC,
Alberta, NWT and the
Yukon in mid-May.
Eastern Canada will
continue to see below
average temperatures.
May 17– May 24
http://weather.gc.ca/ensemble/naefs/semaine2_combinee_e.html
![Page 36: Forecast 2017 - ICLR · 3. Incorporate Environment Canada’s seasonal predictions, 4. Determine the fire severity based on the ratio of forecasted over average monthly severity rating](https://reader037.vdocuments.us/reader037/viewer/2022090607/605d555109aac321af74e901/html5/thumbnails/36.jpg)
Ensemble Forecasts
The probability of
precipitation over 10
mm at least one day
over the next two
weeks:
High for the west
coast, northern BC,
western Alberta and
much of Quebec and
the Maritimes.
May 9 - May 24
http://weather.gc.ca/ensemble/naefs/produits_e.html
![Page 37: Forecast 2017 - ICLR · 3. Incorporate Environment Canada’s seasonal predictions, 4. Determine the fire severity based on the ratio of forecasted over average monthly severity rating](https://reader037.vdocuments.us/reader037/viewer/2022090607/605d555109aac321af74e901/html5/thumbnails/37.jpg)
Seasonal Forecasts
Above-average temperature are highly likely for most of Canada.
Above-average precipitation is possible for northern Ontario and
Quebec.
May-June-July
http://weather.gc.ca/saisons/prob_e.html
![Page 38: Forecast 2017 - ICLR · 3. Incorporate Environment Canada’s seasonal predictions, 4. Determine the fire severity based on the ratio of forecasted over average monthly severity rating](https://reader037.vdocuments.us/reader037/viewer/2022090607/605d555109aac321af74e901/html5/thumbnails/38.jpg)
Seasonal Forecasts
As summer develops, conditions normalize though central Canada,
while above-average temperatures are less than the previous period.
Normal precipitation is forecasted.
June-July-August
http://weather.gc.ca/saisons/prob_e.html
![Page 39: Forecast 2017 - ICLR · 3. Incorporate Environment Canada’s seasonal predictions, 4. Determine the fire severity based on the ratio of forecasted over average monthly severity rating](https://reader037.vdocuments.us/reader037/viewer/2022090607/605d555109aac321af74e901/html5/thumbnails/39.jpg)
Seasonal Forecasts
Above-average temperatures will likely persist across Canada (mostly in
the east) into the late summer.
Above-average precipitation is likely only in the northern BC and Yukon.
August-September-October
http://weather.gc.ca/saisons/prob_e.html
![Page 40: Forecast 2017 - ICLR · 3. Incorporate Environment Canada’s seasonal predictions, 4. Determine the fire severity based on the ratio of forecasted over average monthly severity rating](https://reader037.vdocuments.us/reader037/viewer/2022090607/605d555109aac321af74e901/html5/thumbnails/40.jpg)
2017 Seasonal Prediction
Model Predictions
![Page 41: Forecast 2017 - ICLR · 3. Incorporate Environment Canada’s seasonal predictions, 4. Determine the fire severity based on the ratio of forecasted over average monthly severity rating](https://reader037.vdocuments.us/reader037/viewer/2022090607/605d555109aac321af74e901/html5/thumbnails/41.jpg)
May 2017
Above-average conditions cover much of western
Canada, with the exception of southern BC and the
Alberta foothills.
Anomaly (predicted values normalized against average weather)
Forecast (Monthly Severity Rating)
![Page 42: Forecast 2017 - ICLR · 3. Incorporate Environment Canada’s seasonal predictions, 4. Determine the fire severity based on the ratio of forecasted over average monthly severity rating](https://reader037.vdocuments.us/reader037/viewer/2022090607/605d555109aac321af74e901/html5/thumbnails/42.jpg)
June 2017
Above-average expand to stretch from Yukon to Ontario
as well as parts of Quebec and the Maritimes.
Prediction (predicted values normalized against average weather)
Forecast (Monthly Severity Rating)
![Page 43: Forecast 2017 - ICLR · 3. Incorporate Environment Canada’s seasonal predictions, 4. Determine the fire severity based on the ratio of forecasted over average monthly severity rating](https://reader037.vdocuments.us/reader037/viewer/2022090607/605d555109aac321af74e901/html5/thumbnails/43.jpg)
July 2017
As summer develops, fire danger conditions begin to settle
though above-average conditions are still present in the
northwest and in the east.
Prediction (predicted values normalized against average weather)
Forecast (Monthly Severity Rating)
![Page 44: Forecast 2017 - ICLR · 3. Incorporate Environment Canada’s seasonal predictions, 4. Determine the fire severity based on the ratio of forecasted over average monthly severity rating](https://reader037.vdocuments.us/reader037/viewer/2022090607/605d555109aac321af74e901/html5/thumbnails/44.jpg)
August 2017
Conditions fall to normal with only BC, NWT and NS showing
any fire danger conditions.
Prediction (predicted values normalized against average weather)
Forecast (Monthly Severity Rating)
![Page 45: Forecast 2017 - ICLR · 3. Incorporate Environment Canada’s seasonal predictions, 4. Determine the fire severity based on the ratio of forecasted over average monthly severity rating](https://reader037.vdocuments.us/reader037/viewer/2022090607/605d555109aac321af74e901/html5/thumbnails/45.jpg)
September 2017
As fall takes hold, only central Alberta and Saskatchewan
and southern BC may see activity.
Prediction (predicted values normalized against average weather)
Forecast (Monthly Severity Rating)
![Page 46: Forecast 2017 - ICLR · 3. Incorporate Environment Canada’s seasonal predictions, 4. Determine the fire severity based on the ratio of forecasted over average monthly severity rating](https://reader037.vdocuments.us/reader037/viewer/2022090607/605d555109aac321af74e901/html5/thumbnails/46.jpg)
Yellowknife 2017
Yellowknife shows above-average temperatures for the
entire summer while precipitation appear to be average.
Temperature Precipitation
![Page 47: Forecast 2017 - ICLR · 3. Incorporate Environment Canada’s seasonal predictions, 4. Determine the fire severity based on the ratio of forecasted over average monthly severity rating](https://reader037.vdocuments.us/reader037/viewer/2022090607/605d555109aac321af74e901/html5/thumbnails/47.jpg)
Yellowknife 2017
Yellowknife may see an elevated BUI conditions in May and June but
this drops to average values for the remainder of the season.
BUI CSSR
![Page 48: Forecast 2017 - ICLR · 3. Incorporate Environment Canada’s seasonal predictions, 4. Determine the fire severity based on the ratio of forecasted over average monthly severity rating](https://reader037.vdocuments.us/reader037/viewer/2022090607/605d555109aac321af74e901/html5/thumbnails/48.jpg)
Peace River 2017
While Peace River show average temperatures (cm3) both models show
below-average precipitation for most of the summer.
Temperature Precipitation
![Page 49: Forecast 2017 - ICLR · 3. Incorporate Environment Canada’s seasonal predictions, 4. Determine the fire severity based on the ratio of forecasted over average monthly severity rating](https://reader037.vdocuments.us/reader037/viewer/2022090607/605d555109aac321af74e901/html5/thumbnails/49.jpg)
Peace River 2017
Elevated BUI conditions in May and June but conditions normalize in
July and August.
BUI CSSR
![Page 50: Forecast 2017 - ICLR · 3. Incorporate Environment Canada’s seasonal predictions, 4. Determine the fire severity based on the ratio of forecasted over average monthly severity rating](https://reader037.vdocuments.us/reader037/viewer/2022090607/605d555109aac321af74e901/html5/thumbnails/50.jpg)
Sault Ste. Marie 2017
Above-average temperatures for most of the summer along with below-
average precipitation until August.
Temperature Precipitation
![Page 51: Forecast 2017 - ICLR · 3. Incorporate Environment Canada’s seasonal predictions, 4. Determine the fire severity based on the ratio of forecasted over average monthly severity rating](https://reader037.vdocuments.us/reader037/viewer/2022090607/605d555109aac321af74e901/html5/thumbnails/51.jpg)
Sault Ste. Marie 2017
The BUI pattern in eastern Canada is typically less dramatic but still
above average May and June.
BUI CSSR
![Page 52: Forecast 2017 - ICLR · 3. Incorporate Environment Canada’s seasonal predictions, 4. Determine the fire severity based on the ratio of forecasted over average monthly severity rating](https://reader037.vdocuments.us/reader037/viewer/2022090607/605d555109aac321af74e901/html5/thumbnails/52.jpg)
Halifax 2017
Halifax is showing above-average temperatures and
average precipitation for most of the summer
Temperature Precipitation
![Page 53: Forecast 2017 - ICLR · 3. Incorporate Environment Canada’s seasonal predictions, 4. Determine the fire severity based on the ratio of forecasted over average monthly severity rating](https://reader037.vdocuments.us/reader037/viewer/2022090607/605d555109aac321af74e901/html5/thumbnails/53.jpg)
Halifax 2017
Halifax typically experiences a spring fire season, which may extend
into July, but this drops to average values for the remainder of the
season.
BUI CSSR
![Page 54: Forecast 2017 - ICLR · 3. Incorporate Environment Canada’s seasonal predictions, 4. Determine the fire severity based on the ratio of forecasted over average monthly severity rating](https://reader037.vdocuments.us/reader037/viewer/2022090607/605d555109aac321af74e901/html5/thumbnails/54.jpg)
2017 Prediction
In summary, it appears that northwestern portions
Canada (Yukon, northern BC and Alberta, NWT)
may see fire activity this spring due to dry
conditions and warmer temperatures.
Maritimes may see activity in May to July.
Most indications are that the fire season will likely
peak in June and then moderate for the
remainder of the summer throughout all of
Canada.
![Page 55: Forecast 2017 - ICLR · 3. Incorporate Environment Canada’s seasonal predictions, 4. Determine the fire severity based on the ratio of forecasted over average monthly severity rating](https://reader037.vdocuments.us/reader037/viewer/2022090607/605d555109aac321af74e901/html5/thumbnails/55.jpg)
North American Seasonal Assessment
The forecast (released last month) indicates moderate fire danger
in western Canada peaking in June.
http://www.predictiveservices.nifc.gov/outlooks/NA_Outlook.pdf
![Page 56: Forecast 2017 - ICLR · 3. Incorporate Environment Canada’s seasonal predictions, 4. Determine the fire severity based on the ratio of forecasted over average monthly severity rating](https://reader037.vdocuments.us/reader037/viewer/2022090607/605d555109aac321af74e901/html5/thumbnails/56.jpg)
Canadian Seasonal Assessment
The forecast indicates moderate fire danger in western Canada
peaking in June. Maritimes may see activity in June and July.
![Page 57: Forecast 2017 - ICLR · 3. Incorporate Environment Canada’s seasonal predictions, 4. Determine the fire severity based on the ratio of forecasted over average monthly severity rating](https://reader037.vdocuments.us/reader037/viewer/2022090607/605d555109aac321af74e901/html5/thumbnails/57.jpg)
Questions?
![Page 58: Forecast 2017 - ICLR · 3. Incorporate Environment Canada’s seasonal predictions, 4. Determine the fire severity based on the ratio of forecasted over average monthly severity rating](https://reader037.vdocuments.us/reader037/viewer/2022090607/605d555109aac321af74e901/html5/thumbnails/58.jpg)
Contact
61
Kerry Anderson
Fire Research Scientist
Canadian Forest Service
Edmonton, AB
(780) 435-7320