forces reshaping our world over the coming 20 years · forces reshaping our world over the coming...
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Global Megatrends Forces reshaping our world over the coming 20 years
Stefan Hajkowicz, PhD
Global Megatrends More
From Less
Planetary Pushback
The Silk Highway
Forever Young
Digital Immersion
Porous Boundaries
Great Expectations
+ The Innovation Imperative
Global Megatrends | Dr Stefan Hajkowicz
Why a Venn Diagram?
3 |
Ice Cream
Car Trip Children Use activity books and
games
Take normal
care Effective strategy not
yet identified by humankind
Use serviettes
Does the strategy perform in most/all areas of overlap?
Each area of overlap tells a unique story about the future
More from Less
Global Megatrends | Dr Stefan Hajkowicz 5 |
More Food Demand, Less Land Area
020406080
100120140160180200
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FAO
Foo
d Pr
ice
Inde
x (R
eal)
IMAGE AND DATA SOURCE: Marco Lagi, Karla Z. Bertrand, Yaneer Bar-Yam (2011) The Food Crises and Political Instability in North Africa and the Middle East. Physics and Society.
Global Megatrends | Dr Stefan Hajkowicz
More Food From Less Resources New Ways of Making Food
6 |
First taste test in London 2013 – The Burger Cost AUD$450,000. The same research team led by Professor Post estimate $80/kg today using economies of scale and cutting edge technology.
Source: Reuters: David Parry/Pool, file photo, ABC News Online
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Energy Water Land GHGEmmisions
Perc
ent
Conventional Meat Cultured Meat
Becoda’s new food 3D printer – the Qiao
Source: http://3dprintingindustry.com/ Source: Journal of Environmental Science and Technology
More Energy, Less Resources & Less Emissions
Source: Valentin Muenzel et al (2014) The Conversation. Drawing upon data by the University of Melbourne and IBM.
“Unsubsidized rooftop solar electricity costs between $0.08-$0.13/kWh, 30-40% below retail price of electricity in many markets globally. In markets heavily dependent on coal for electricity generation, the ratio of coal based wholesale electricity to solar electricity cost was 7:1 four years ago. This ratio is now less than 2:1 and could likely approach 1:1 over the next 12-18 months”.
- Deutsche Bank, Markets Research, Feb 2015
Source: David van der Mark, Flickr
The Tesla Model S P90D accelerates 0 to 100km/hr in 2.9 seconds; faster than the Ferrari 458 Italia at 3.0 seconds. It retails for ~US$120,000 (25% of that is the battery) [source: Wikipedia, www.automoblog.net).
Source: Pixabay
Global Megatrends | Dr Stefan Hajkowicz 7 |
Via Better Batteries
Global Megatrends | Dr Stefan Hajkowicz
Mining Above the Ground
8 |
One tonne of ore body yields 1-5 grams of gold
One tonne of old computer circuits yields 250 grams of gold
Data Source: CSIRO News, Anna Littleboy - March 28 2014 How to create wealth from waste
Images CSIRO
Planetary Pushback
Future of Work | Dr Stefan Hajkowicz & Dr Andrew Reeson 10 |
The Global Climate is Following the Long Range Forecasts The year 2015 was hottest year on record. And 2016 is off to a hot start with February being hottest February on record (1.35C hotter than long term average).
Data and image source: NASA
Global Megatrends | Dr Stefan Hajkowicz 11 |
Deaths attributable to antimicrobial resistance every year by 2050
The Silk Highway
Global Megatrends | Dr Stefan Hajkowicz 13 |
A Shifting World Economy
Source: Quah, 2011; Global Policy
Global Megatrends | Dr Stefan Hajkowicz
Making Cities in 20 Years - What Took Europe 400 Years
14 |
Image source: (c) The Chinese UPLA urban planning network, http://www.upla.cn Statistic derived from analysis of the United Nations, World Urbanization Prospects, The 2007 Revision Population Database
The Rise of the Services Sector Transition in the Chinese Economy
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1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Perc
ent o
f Val
ue A
dd to
the
Econ
omy
IndustryServicesAgriculture
Source: World Bank Indicators
Forever Young
The Ageing Population – Australia
Data Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics
Today we’re some 14% over 65 yrs old
It will be 25% by 2050
Average Retirement Age Is on the Rise
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1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Australia - Males Australia - Females
As of June 2013 Australia’s entire workforce had a $727 billion shortfall for a comfortable retirement.
- Rice Warner Actuaries
Data source: OECD, Ageing and Employment Policies - Statistics on average effective age of retirement
Aver
age
Retir
emen
t Age
Aus
tral
ia, Y
ears
Longer Lives (and No Ceiling) Years at Birth, Australia
Global Megatrends | Dr Stefan Hajkowicz 19 |
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MalesFemales
Data source: OECD Health Status, Life Expectancy at Birth
Jeanne Calment, who died at 122
The first person in the world to live to 150 years has already be born – according to Dr Aubrey de Grey
Life
Exp
ecta
ncy
at B
irth
in A
ustr
alia
, Yea
rs
Source: Eric Le Bourg, Ageing Research Reviews, Image: Wikipedia
Today’s youngest could have life expectancy of 105 years
At age 20 in 1885
Future of Work | Dr Stefan Hajkowicz & Dr Andrew Reeson 20 |
Obesity Rates (most recent OECD data, defined by BMI)
Whilst the rate of growth is forecast to slow, the percentage increases. Australia is forecast to be 70% overweight and over one-third obese by 2025. Poor diets and physical inactivity are drivers of this trend.
Rising Healthcare Expenditure
Source: CSIRO DPAS Flagship
Today we spend 25
percent of all
government taxes in
Australia on
healthcare.
By the year 2043 it
will be 40 percent.
Perc
ent o
f GDP
, Aus
tral
ia
Source: AIHW health expenditure database
Digital Immersion
The Internet of Things
2006 2 Billion Devices
2015 15 Billion Devices
2020 200 Billion Devices
Data source: Intel Corporation. A Guide to the Internet of Things. Image Wikipedia
225 times more functionality
40,000 times more functionality
Metcalfe's Law Value of a network = n2
Data Volumes
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Jun2010
Dec2010
Jun2011
Dec2011
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Jun2015
Thou
sand
Tera
byte
s
Terabytes of data downloaded using fixed line broadband
And we’d need another 75m to show you the 2025 forecast.
According to IBM The world creates 2.5 quintillion bytes of data daily; 90% of the data was made in the last 2 years.
Computing Speed
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Tran
sisto
rs (m
illio
ns)
Moore’s Law – Number of transistors on an integrated circuit doubles at same cost every 1.5 years
And then there’s quantum computing which could be 10,000 times faster …
Jury’s still out on whether D Wave 2 (second commercially available quantum computer by Google, NASA and D Wave Systems) actually works. But maybe soon?
Future of Work | Dr Stefan Hajkowicz & Dr Andrew Reeson 26 |
Question: The area of lilly pad doubles every day. It takes 19 days for the pond to be half-covered. On what
day is the pond completely covered?
Image: Pixabay
27 |
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
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600,000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Pond
Cov
erag
e (S
quar
e M
etre
s)
Answer: On day 20 (one day later) the pond is covered.
Frog Doesn’t Know Anything is Happening Yet
Frog Suspects
Something Happening
Frog realises what’s
happening & tries to respond
50% Coverage
Image: Pixabay
100% Coverage
What Jobs do People Get?
After seven years of effort by scientists from UC Berkeley a robot can fold a towel in … 20 mins.
The Berkeley Robot for the Elimination of Tedious Task (Brett) by Prof Abbeel at UC Berkley. Image source: Youtube
Photographers Versus Lab Staff
ABS (2015). 6291.0.55.001 - Labour Force, Australia, Detailed. Canberra, Australian Bureau of Statistics.
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Empl
oym
ent (
'000
s)
Australian Photographic Industry
PhotographersDevelopers/printers
Porous Boundaries
Ronald Coase Ronald Coase working in 2003. Photo taken at and by University of Chicago Law School. Wikipedia.
The New Platform Economies
GLG
Future of Work | Dr Stefan Hajkowicz & Dr Andrew Reeson 33 |
New Uber Drivers in the United States
A study by Uber Technologies and Princeton University, published 2016
Great Expectations
Future of Work | Dr Stefan Hajkowicz & Dr Andrew Reeson 35 |
Cybercrime, Privacy Concerns, Intrusive
Marketing, Information
Overload, Online Burnout
.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3Sk7cOqB9Dk
Google Analytics – In Real Life Online Checkout
Future of Work | Dr Stefan Hajkowicz & Dr Andrew Reeson 37 |
Is it really just C8H10N4O2
The Innovation Imperative Now is the time to rattle the cage, experiment with new business models, invest in ideas & rethink organisational structure because… … Elephants must learn to dance.
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Prod
uctiv
ity In
dex
Twenty Years of Productivity in Australia Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics “…In the long term
it’s everything”
- Paul Krugman, Nobel Prize Laureate, Economics
Image: Paul Krugman Speaks to the Commonwealth Club of San Francisco, May 2012. Photo on Flickr and taken by Ed Ritger.
Future of Work | Dr Stefan Hajkowicz & Dr Andrew Reeson 40 |
The Innovator’s Dilemma World Economic Forum via Flickr. Zanny Minton Beddoes interviews Clayton Christensen
Working Smarter, Not Working Harder In a high tech digitally enabled economy its about working smarter not harder
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Labo
ur P
rodu
ctiv
ity (U
SD o
f GDP
Pe
r Hou
r Wor
ked,
Cur
rent
Pric
es)
Average Hours Worked Per Person Per Week
R2 = 0.65
Data Source: OECD Statistics, Labour productivity levels in the total economy, Data for 34 OECD Countries
Experiments in Sweden, reducing the work week from 6 to 8 hours tested by:
• Svartedalens elderly care home
• Internet startup, Brath
• Filimundus App Developer
• Stockholm city council
• Toyota service centre in Gothenburg
Sweden
Norway
Australia
Stockholm, Pixabay
Strategic Foresight @ Data61 | CSIRO We combine research excellence with business relevance. We analyse trends, risks and scenarios with a focus on the digital economy. We do decision analysis. We help organisations make wise strategic choices and achieve their objectives. We live in Brisbane but we travel the world …
… (and we try to get home in time for dinner).
www.csiro.au
Data61 Dr Stefan Hajkowicz Senior Principal Research Scientist t +61 7 3833 5540 e [email protected]
Thank you