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4Food Security & Nutrition Working GroupEastern and Central African Region

Sep

tem

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2014

Agenda

Sept 23, 2014

Co-Chair: IGAD & FAO

09:30-10:30

Situation Analysis & Outlook:

Food security conditions, hotspots, prices, climate,

nutrition & refugees

ACF, FAO, FEWSNET,

ICPAC, IPC, UNHCR,

UNICEF, WFP

10:30 -11:00Research Findings on Food Security in South Sudan

and the IPCCAFOD and FAO

11:00-11:30 Discussion All

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4

Sept 2013 Conditions Vs Current Conditions

IMPROVED: Ethiopia, Uganda

DETERIORATED: South Sudan, Djibouti, Burundi, Kenya, Somalia, Sudan,

Burundi.

SAME: Rwanda, Eastern DRC, CAR

Sep

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2014

Sept 2013 Sept 2014

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4

Rwanda

Rwanda, FEWSNET, UR & GIS centerIPC Phase: Overall, Rwanda is in phase 2

(Stressed)

Poor harvest: Season B harvests in June was 40%-60% below-normal, reducing market supply and causing price increase.

High prices of staple food : Bean prices in some markets increased by 10%-24% between June and July, was 34% higher than last year

Exhaustion of food stock: Poor households in stressed zones are likely to exhaust their food stocks two months earlier than normal.

Improved livestock body condition and milk production: Rainfall during the first two decades of August improved pasture and water availability for livestock.

Food Security is fairly stable. However, it may deteriorate as

result of poor harvest and rising food prices

Sep

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2014

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4

BurundiBurundi. Food security brief (CFSAM 2014b)IPC Phase: Overall, in Phase 2 (stressed) and 3

(crisis)of the IPC. About 14% of thepopulation are in Phase 3.

Deteriorating food consumption score: mostly inthe LZ of “North depression”, “EasternDepression” and the “Wet plateau”. 1.3million people, the largest proportion isconcentrated in these zone.

High prevalence of Malnutrition: Continuous risein admissions in the feeding centers, whichreached 20% compared to last year (…..%).

Decline in Agricultural Production: 6% declinecompared to last year. Attributed to droughtfrom April 2014 in the “North Depression”(Kirundo province) livelihood zone.

High staple food prices: The prices of differentfoods are very high compared to previousyears, hence limiting access to adequate foodfor many households.

Land access: Some returnees are still struggling with reintegration, especially those with limited access to land for agricultural activities

Food Security is unstable and may deteriorate further due to poor

harvest and rising food prices. Continuous rise in malnutrition is

of concern

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2014

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Uganda

Uganda: IPC – September to December

The country is minimally food insecure (phase 1)with the exception of the Acholi (1-2), Teso (1-2) and Karamoja (2-3), regions.

Inadequate food consumption: 66.7% of thehouseholds in Karamoja region depictinadequate food consumption.

GAM Rate: Average of 13.4% for Karamoja regionwith Moroto exhibiting the highest

FMD outbreak and quarantine: in Karamojacontributing to limited dietary diversity andincome

Below Average Harvest: Crop harvest is betweenAugust November and is expected to be belowaverage. This is aggravated by flash flooding andwater logging in some parts of Teso and Acholi

Poor road access during rainy season. Affectingtrade and commodity flow.

Karamoja continues to be of concern in Uganda. There is need to

contain FMD and high malnutrition rates in some areas.

Sep

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4

Kenya

Kenya: FEWSNET, WPF & GOK

IPC Phases: Phase 1, 2 and 3Food security situation: In the NW and NE

pastoral areas and the SE and coastalmarginal agricultural areas FS continue todeteriorate.

Forage and livestock conditions: continued todecline markedly as a result of the poor2014 long rains season.

• Watering and grazing distances continue toincrease.

• Forage and livestock conditions range fromfair to poor.

Malnutrition: As a result of the deterioratingfood security situation andforage/livestock conditions, malnutritioncases remain high (>15%).

Livestock prices: goats price did not show anyunusual variations, remaining fairly stablein Turkana, Marsabit, Samburu, Mandera,Garissa, and Tana River.

Stable/declined staple foodprices: Retail maize pricesdeclined five to 10 percept insome counties and remainedstable in others.

Deteriorating food security (compared to August), especially in Northern

and part of South-Eastern Kenya. High malnutrition rates in pastoral

area.

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4

SomaliaSomalia: IPC, FSNAU (Aug-Dec)IPC Phases. Most areas (2 million) remain

under stressed (phase 2); 1 million in crisis (phase 3); and 58,000 in emergencies (phase 4).

Increased population in crisis: 20% increase since the start of the year.

Malnutrition: An estimated 218,000 children (14.3% of <5 years) are acutely malnourished – a 7% increase since January 2014.

High Food Prices: High prices of cereals continued as in the previous month, especially in the cities in central and southern parts of the country.

Expected improvement in forage and livestock condition: Normal to above normal Oct-Dec rainfall is likely to improve forage and water availability for livestock.

About one million still remains under crisis, with high prevalence

of malnutrition. Key areas of concern are in central and southern

parts of the country

Sep

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4Ethiopia

Ethiopia: FEWSNET

IPC Phase: Same as August, though much better than Sept. last year. Most parts are in Phase 1 & 2; some parts of northern in 3.

Poor Belg Harvest: In central Oromia, eastern Amhara and Tigray due to low amounts of poorly distributed Belg rainfall. Food Consumption Gap (FCG): With poor harvest, poor households facing FCG.

High Food Prices: Compared to last year, Maize and Sorghum prices decreased by 15 &12%, respectively.

Late Kiremt rain (July Sept) In eastern and central Oromia and SNNPR, will likely lead to a below-average harvest in November/December

Most parts remain in phase 1 & 2. Crisis areas need to be

considered.

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SudanSudan: IPC – August – October 2014

IPC Phases: Most parts of the country are in phase 3, with close to 50% of Darfur in phase 4:

Poor Harvest: resulting in poor food consumption in some areas. The overarching factors are drought, desertification and soil degradation.

Malnutrition: >15% GAM rates in Red sea and Darfur regions

Hikes in food prices: affected food access mainly for vulnerable groups. 15-25% in Darfur and South Kordofan face consumption gaps due to inadequate food access.

Flash flood: the main hazard during the analysis. Shortages pastures, drinking water some states in eastern region.

Civil conflict in Darfur: Resulting in country borne IDP,s, loss of livelihood assets

Deterioration to emergency in parts of Western Darfur. High levels of

malnutrition in Darfur and Red Sea region - key concerns

Sep

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2014

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South Sudan

-2,000,000

-1,000,000

0

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000June - August 2014

Sep-14

Reduced number of people in Crisis and Emergency by 1.7m due to

September harvest

More in the next South Sudan presentation

Sep

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2014

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4

Population in Food Insecurity Crisis or Emergency (IPC Phase 3 & 4)

-

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

Djib

ou

ti

Uga

nd

a

Som

alia

Bu

run

di

Ken

ya

CA

R

Sou

th …

Eth

iop

ia

DR

C

Sud

an

Popn in IPC Phace 3&4

Country Source

Sudan IPC Aug 2014

DRCIPC June 2014

Ethiopia GoE, WFP

South SudanSept 2014 IPC

CARIPC May 2014

KenyaKFSSG Aug 2014

BurundiBurundi Aug IPC

Somalia July IPC

UgandaSept IPC 2014 (preliminary)

Djibouti

TOTAL 17.7Total=17.7 million

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4

IPC Current & Projected Analysis

27 Aug – 6 Sep 2014

INTEGRATED FOOD SECURITY PHASE

CLASSIFICATION

REPUBLIC OF SOUTH SUDAN

Sep

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2014

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4IPC Process

• 2 day IPC workshops in most of the states

• National analysis workshop 27 Aug – 6 Sep

• IPC TWG validation and finalization 7 – 9 Sep

• More than 70 participants attended from most of states

• Nutrition IPC classification pilot and analysis

• Rigorous vetting of state analysis and justification

Participant

s

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4

July 2014September 2014

Oct – Dec 2014 Jan – Mar 2015

Sep

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4Current: September 2014

• E n d o f l e a n s e a s o n

• Avai lab i l i t y o f g reen maize

• Available first harvest in Equitoria

• F i s h a n d m i l k a v a i l a b i l i t y

• H u m a n i t a r i a n r e s p o n s e

• Funct iona l markets in non-conf l ic t a reas

• F o o d s t o c k s i n t h e m a r k e t

• High malnutrition rates mainly in conflict areas

Sep

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4Projection: October-December 2014

• Availability of maize & sorghum harvest

• Functioning markets relying on local

production

• Fish and milk availability

• Sustained high levels of

malnutrition

• Humanitarian response

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Projection: January-March 2015

• Fast depletion of household food stocks

• Possible escalation of conflict in Greater

Upper Nile

• Start of the lean season

• Uncertainties in delivery of

humanitarian assistance

• Sustained or increasing

malnutrition

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Population

State Minimal Stressed Crisis EmergencyTotal Crisis &Emergency

May 2014 4,508,453 3,546,953 2,401,837 1,123,446 3,525,283

June - August 2014 4,310,000 3,385,000 2,630,000 1,260,000 3,890,000 (+10%)

September 2014 5,525,000 3,675,000 1,750,000 415,000 2,165,000 (-44%)

October - December 2014 6,395,000 3,465,000 1,260,000 245,000 1,505,000 (-30%)

January - March 2015 5,105,000 3,855,000 1,630,000 890,000 2,520,000 (+67%)

Sep

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4No famine but we are not out of the woods

• Lean season has passed and now in the period of plenty due to healthy rainfall and normal to slightly above normal cultivation

• In 3 states however, planting was below normal, est. only 70% of HH cultivated

• Displaced populations putting pressure on host communities lead to faster depletion of stocks, est. 1-2 months as opposed to 3-6 months

• Uncertainties in humanitarian access, direction of conflict and level of market disruption

• Peak of the lean season in 2015 is of great concern

• Protracted large numbers in Phase 3 & 4

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4Key messages

• Food security across the country has begun improving and is expected to continue improving according to seasonal patterns through December 2014

• However, 1.5 million people are projected to remain in Phase 3 (Crisis) and Phase 4 (Emergency) through December 2014, about two-thirds in Greater Upper Nile

• The outlook for 2015 is of great concern, with 2.5 million people projected to be in Crisis or Emergency from January to March 2015, most of them in Greater Upper Nile

• Overall nutrition situation remains above emergency thresholds (GAM >15%) in September to December especially in the conflict-affected states.

• Humanitarian assistance has reduced the number of people in Crisis and Emergency phases in the areas it has reached

• There is a window of opportunity to take action right now in order to prevent dramatic deterioration of food insecurity and malnutrition status in 2015

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4 Thank youS

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4South Sudan emergency update

Funding A total of USD 567 million requested, USD 169 million received

Sep

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4South Sudan Emergency Situation

• Overall security situation is calm but tense across most of South Sudan,with reports of sporadic fighting in Nasir and several other locations.

• A decline in new cholera cases reported, which suggests that theoutbreak is now under control.

• The flooding emergency continues to affect IDP and refugeepopulations. UNHCR, as the Protection Cluster Lead continues tosupport the relocation of the most vulnerable IDPs.

Refugees

Sep

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4Nutrition and food security issues

South Sudan

• Currently, the air movements are the only possible way to get thesupplies to Unity and Upper Nile refugee camps and this willcontinue to be true until December - January.

• At UNHCR’s request, WFP has started pre-positioning food using the Bunj airstrip for Upper Nile camps.

Sudan

• Camps in White Nile State remain inaccessible following theongoing heavy rains, which have rendered roads impassable.

• WFP has prepositioned two months’ food supplies across the threecamps.

• There are limited nutrition partners and Supplementary FeedingProgrammes (SFP) in South and West Kordofan States.

Refugees

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4Nutrition and food security issues

Ethiopia

• Food delivery to Leitchuor is hampered due to the flooding. WFP is exploringoptions for food delivery by boat while discussions on storing food for twomonths are also ongoing.

• In Leitchuor camp, vulnerable groups were identified together by UNHCRand Save the Children in order to prioritize beneficiaries for distribution.

• Following flooding in Leitchuor camp, some refugees have integrated intothe host community. The nutrition partners together with UNHCR havedeveloped an action plan to respond to the nutrition needs of the dispersedrefugees.

Refugees

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4Nutrition and food Security issues

Ethiopia (continued)

• Two nutrition mobile sites continued to offer nutrition services.

• Two-nutrition task force teams were formed, one in Gambella and another in Leitchuor with the collaboration of WFP, ARRA, UNHCR, ACF and Concern to implement the nutrition flood-response action plan.

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Nutrition and food security issues

Kenya

• 51 newly arrived children were screened by weight for height formalnutrition between 2nd - 8th September; 27.5% were foundwith Global Acute Malnutrition and 13.7% had Severe AcuteMalnutrition.

• There is a planned ration reduction of SuperCereal in Septemberand October which will but the overall ration with 2%. Given thenutrition conditions of the new arrivals , this reduction mightaffect nutrition and health status.

Uganda

• In Kiryandongo UNHCR and partners met with refugee leaders todiscuss the replacement of maize by sorghum (due to limitedmilling capacity). Refugees expressed their strong preference formaize. The limited available maize meal is reserved for newarrivals who are still at the reception centers.

Refugees

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NUTRITION UPDATE

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Somalia- Nutrition Situation, Post Gu’14

•218300 children < 5 yrs are acute

malnourished (7% increase since 6

months ago),

•44,000 children <5 years are Severely

malnourished,

•74% of GAM and 78% of SAM are

located in South Somalia,(Median GAM of 17.3 and SAM of 3.7 was higher in SC

compared to 12.7 and 2.2 in NE and 10.0 and 1.7 in NW)

•Critical levels of GAM (≥15%) were

noted in 50% of the rural livelihoods

surveyed.

•Prevalence of all type of malnutrition is

higher in IDPs (GAM-16.5 vs. 14.9 in

other livelihoods; stunting is 16 vs. 7.1

and underweight 18.7 vs. 13.2.(Prevalence of Acute Malnutrition is critical in 7/13 IDPs)

In 5 livelihoods critical GAM levels were

sustained ( Bay AP, Bakool P,

Beletweyne, S Gedo P & R)

Humanitarian Emergency situation is

observed in Mogadishu IDP and

Kismayo IDP

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Reversal of declining trend of Acute Malnutrition rates is noted in SC region of

Somalia but situation is continuously improving in NE & NW region

NutritionS

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5.6 5.5 5.2 4.8 5.15 5.4

2.05

5.2

17.2

9.3

5.7

3.7 3.92.8

3.73.95

5.7

13.1

4.9

2 22.7

4.35.2

4.4

2.7 2.6 2.23.8 3.7 3.3

1 0.951.7

2.6 2.7 3.22.3

3 2.51.7

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2007 GU 2007 Deyr

2008 Gu 2008 Deyr

2009 Gu 2009 Deyr

2010 Gu 2010 Deyr

2011 Gu 2011 Deyr

2012 Gu 2012 deyr

2013 Gu 2013 Deyr

Gu 2014

SAM Trends in different Zone of Somalia

SC NE NW

17.95

16.1 19.4

13.85

20.2521.2

15.95

25.85

39.5

26.7 20.4

19.5 16.115.1 17.3

20.321.4

28.4

20.1

8.3

11.3

12.9

21.619.8 19.2

15.8 1412.7

14.4

16.1 16.5

9.810.8

13.612.2

15 15.5

14.2 10.6 10

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

2007 Gu 2007 Deyr

2008 Gu 2008 Deyr

2009 Gu 2009 Deyr

2010 Gu 2010 Deyr

2011 Gu 2011 Deyr

2012 Gu 2012 Deyr

2013 Gu 2013 Deyr

Gu 2014

GAM trends in different Zones of Somalia

SC NE NWNutrition

Ref: FSNAU, Sept 2014

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South SudanOverall Nutrition Situation Sept 2014

NutritionS

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4Nutrition surveys updates

4.726.1

31.627

16.916

31.821.1

6.212.2

24.49.2

34.18.9

15.48.9

15.413.3

20.811.3

9.8

0.25.9

9.74.1

1.71.4

9.55.7

1.42.9

5.41.5

10.91

2.21.0

2.22.9

61.92.2

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40

Melut

Panyijiar

Aweil West

Akobo East

Pochalla

Gogrial West

Leer

Gogrial East

Gorial East

Nyirol

Jur River

Pre-harvest Nutrion surveys 2014

SAM GAM

•The GAM prevalence ranges from 4.7% (3.1-7.4 95% CI) in Melut, Upper Nile State

conducted in IDP camp, to 31.6% (26.8-36.9 95% CI) in Panyijar Unity State.

•The SAM prevalence ranges from 0.2% (0.01-1.33 95% CI) to 9.7% (7.5-12.4 95%

CI) in the same locations respectively

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4 Key figures:

• 816,140 children 6-59 months were screened for acute malnutrition from January 2014 to date;

• 54,813 children 0-59 months were admitted to SAM treatment programmes from January 2014 to August, (including 3,816 (6.9%) admitted as SAM with complications).

• 89,803 children 0-59 months were admitted to the MAM treatment programmes from January 2014 to date

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4Key details

Other factors affecting nutrition outcomes:

1. Deteriorating food security situation, caused by several interlinked negative factors including:

• armed conflict and displacement;

• poor food consumption and diet diversification among most of the population;

• poor productivity especially in key livelihood sectors such as agriculture and livestock; and

• high levels of livestock mortality coupled with increased animal disease outbreaks.

2. Outbreak of cholera was declared in Juba in May 2014, which has since spread to other areas of the country. Given the intimate link between disease and malnutrition, the heightened risk of diarrhoeal disease and cholera may have a very severe impact on the nutritional status of the most vulnerable, particularly children under five.

NutritionS

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4Progress towards CRP Targets: Nutrition Cluster

Target Reached % Achievement

Total number of people (wholecountry)

1,113,683 523,37947.0

Number of Children treated forSAM

176,283 54,57331.0

Number of Children treated forMAM

420,000 89,08521.2

Number of Children reachedwith BSFP

380,000 344,17290.6

Number of PLWs reached withBSFP

24,300 22,55892.8

Number of PLWs treated forMAM

113,100 12,99147.0

Note: All numbers are as reported on 04 Sep 2014, including total number of beneficiaries reached are from January 2014. The target numbers are from the Crisis Response Plan January – December 2014.

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4Challenges and Gaps

Challenges:• Access constraints hamper implementation and assessments/surveys;• Capacity of partners to scale-up in priority locations.

Gaps/Priority needs (until March 2015):• Supplies for management of SAM: US$5.7 mln (incl. transport)• Implementation of SAM management interventions: US$9.8 mln• Supplies for and implementation of MAM management interventions:

US$34.5 mln (incl. transport)• TOTAL: US$ 50.0 mln

As of 04 September 2014, Nutrition Cluster partners received 45.2% (US$59,231,171) of required US$131 mln for implementation of Nutrition in Emergencies interventions to reach CRP targets;

More support is required towards programs working towards prevention of malnutrition.

Nutrition

Ref: Nutrition Cluster, South Sudan, Sept 2014

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Malnutrition, both acute and chronic, is widespread and persistent in Sudan.

Sudan has the highest prevalence of wasting in the region – this is the underlying ‘norm’ for Sudan and is exacerbated in a bad harvest year by:

1. Lack of government food stores causing staple food prices to rise

2. Lack of household reserves

3. Earlier than usual onset of the hunger gap

Currently also exacerbated by: Active conflict and insecurity in Darfur region, Kordofan region and Blue Nile; Increased internal displacement ; Arrival of South Sudanese refugees; Under-development and poor investment in health care; Low access to safe drinking water nationwide

SUDANNutrition update

NutritionS

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4Current Nutrition Situation

Acute malnutrition rates for children in Sudan are among the highest in the world

More than two million children are estimated to be wasted annually.

Highest GAM 40.5% and SAM 21.9% in one locality in North Darfur (S3M).

Malnutrition rates

28

20 19 18

15 15 1513 13 13 13 12

10 10 9 8 8 7

0

5

10

15

20

25

30%

of

child

ren

6-5

9 m

on

ths

wit

h g

lob

al a

cute

m

aln

utr

itio

n, W

HZ

Global Acute Malnutrition:WHO emergency threshold -≥15%

Source: Sudan S3M 2013

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4 Stunting

Findings from the Simple Spatial Survey Method (S3M) that was conducted in 2013, indicate that the prevalence of stunting amongst children under the age of five in six localities in Blue Nile is above the 30 per cent threshold.

High malnutrition levels translate into higher vulnerability to death and this requires immediate humanitarian intervention linked to early recovery and longer-term development support.

Nutrition

Ref: Nutrition cluster, Sudan, and OCHA, Aug &Sept 2014 updates

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4Projected Nutrition Security Situation

It is estimated that over 2 million children under five years will suffer from global acute malnutrition over 12 months. Of these, 555,203 will suffer from severe acute malnutrition.

Currently admission trends to feeding centers are following normal seasonal trends and are expected to decline from October as harvest starts.

Of the 8 states with a burden of more than 100,000 malnourished children, 5 are not currently affected by any conflict.

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4BUILDING CAPACITIES FOR BETTER...

NutritionKENYA

NUTRITION SURVEY RESULTS

These results show on average 1 in 4

children is acutely malnourished

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4 Key Information

• The results of the surveys indicate an overall significant deterioration of the nutrition situation in Turkana, Baringo (East Pokot), Mandera, Wajir West from the same time in 2013 to Very Critical levels (>20% GAM) ; and to Critical levels in Samburu and Wajir East/South (15-<20%) .

• These results indicate on average 1 out of 4 children is acutely malnourished

• The total expected caseloads in ASAL & urban is 352,508 Children U5 and 41,947 Pregnant and lactating mothers.

• The deterioration is likely linked to the negative impacts of the current 2014 long rains season, the underperforming 2013 short rains, coupled with extremely high levels of chronic vulnerability.

Nutrition

Nutrition Technical Forum, Sept 2014

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4

Climate Update

By

Zachary K.K. Atheru

IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC)

Ap

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4

GHA Consensus Climate Outlook for the September to December 2014 rainfall season

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4Current Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies

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4ENSO Forecasts

The chance of El

Niño is at 60-65%

during the

Northern

Hemisphere fall

and winter.

The consensus of

forecasters

expects El Niño to

develop during

September-

November and to

peak at weak

strength during

November to

January period.

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4IOD forecasts

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4Summary

• There is 60-65% probability of a weak El Niño todevelop between November 2014 and January2015

• However, the forecast for the Indian OceanDipole Index indicates neutral conditions duringOctober to December 2014 period

• In this regard, the effect of the weak El Niño isnot likely to be felt in eastern Africa duringOctober to December 2014 period.

• In conclusion there is no change in the consensusregional climate outlook issued during GHACOF38

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Thank you