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November 2019 Food Outlook BIANNUAL REPORT ON GLOBAL FOOD MARKETS

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November 2019

Food Outlook B IANNUAL REPORT ON GLOBAL FOOD MARKETS

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

The Food Outlook report is a product of the FAO Trade and Markets Division. This report is prepared under the overall guidance of Boubaker Ben-Belhassen,

Director, and Abdolreza Abbassian, Senior Economist. It is written by a team of economists, whose names and email contacts appear under their respective contributions. The report benefited from research support by many staff, namely, David Bedford, Julie Claro, Harout Dekermendjian, Lavinia Lucarelli, Emanuele Marocco, Marco Milo and the fisheries statistical team.

Special thanks go to David Bedford and Lavinia Lucarelli for preparing the charts and statistical tables and to Valentina Banti for her administrative support. Additionally, the team is grateful to Ettore Vecchione for the desktop publishing and to Clare Pedrick for her valuable editorial assistance.

Required citation:FAO. 2019 Food Outlook - Biannual Report on Global Food Markets – November 2019. Rome.

The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) concerning the legal or development status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. The mention of specific companies or products of manufacturers, whether or not these have been patented, does not imply that these have been endorsed or recommended by FAO in preference to others of a similar nature that are not mentioned.

The views expressed in this information product are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of FAO.

ISBN 978-92-5-131932-1© FAO, 2019

Some rights reserved. This work is made available under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 3.0 IGO licence (CC BY-NC-SA 3.0 IGO; https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/3.0/igo/legalcode/legalcode).

Under the terms of this licence, this work may be copied, redistributed and adapted for non-commercial purposes, provided that the work is appropriately cited. In any use of this work, there should be no suggestion that FAO endorses any specific organization, products or services. The use of the FAO logo is not permitted. If the work is adapted, then it must be licensed under the same or equivalent Creative Commons licence. If a translation of this work is created, it must include the following disclaimer along with the required citation: “This translation was not created by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO). FAO is not responsible for the content or accuracy of this translation. The original [Language] edition shall be the authoritative edition.

Disputes arising under the licence that cannot be settled amicably will be resolved by mediation and arbitration as described in Article 8 of the licence except as otherwise provided herein. The applicable mediation rules will be the mediation rules of the World Intellectual Property Organization http://www.wipo.int/amc/en/mediation/rules and any arbitration will be conducted in accordance with the Arbitration Rules of the United Nations Commission on International Trade Law (UNCITRAL).

Third-party materials. Users wishing to reuse material from this work that is attributed to a third party, such as tables, figures or images, are responsible for determining whether permission is needed for that reuse and for obtaining permission from the copyright holder. The risk of claims resulting from infringement of any third-party-owned component in the work rests solely with the user.

Sales, rights and licensing. FAO information products are available on the FAO website (www.fao.org/publications) and can be purchased through [email protected]. Requests for commercial use should be submitted via: www.fao.org/contact-us/licence-request. Queries regarding rights and licensing should be submitted to: [email protected].

Photo credits:©FAO©Shutterstock

Banana Fusarium Wilt - Supply shortages and higher prices by 2028?

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Contents1−10

12−20

22−51

52-89

90−100

MARKETS AT A GLANCE

COMMODITY FOCUS

MAJOR POLICY DEVELOPMENTS

STATISTICAL TABLES

MARKET INDICATORS

Grains ................................................................................ 23Rice .................................................................................... 30Oilcrops ............................................................................. 34Meat .................................................................................. 46Dairy .................................................................................. 50

Futures markets ................................................................ 91Ocean freight rates .......................................................... 95The FAO price indices ....................................................... 97

Wheat ................................................................................. 3Coarse grains ...................................................................... 4Rice ...................................................................................... 5Oilcrops, oils and meals ..................................................... 6Sugar ................................................................................... 7Meat and meat products ................................................... 8Milk and milk products ...................................................... 9Fish and fishery products ................................................. 10

Banana Fusarium Wilt Tropical Race 4: A mounting threat to global banana markets? .................................. 12

Food Outlook is published twice a year. The first report of the year, published in May or June, provides comprehensive supply and demand assessments on a commodity by commodity basis. As of 2018, the second report, which is normally published in November, contains market summaries (Markets At A Glance) and a section dedicated to more in-depth analysis of a topical issue (Commodity Focus).

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2017

FAO Food Price Index

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2 FOOD OUTLOOKNOVEMBER 2019

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3FOOD OUTLOOKNOVEMBER 2019

Global wheat supply is forecast to recover in 2019/20, as reflected in persistent low international prices since the start of this year. At around 765.0 million tonnes, the latest FAO forecast for world wheat production in 2019 confirms the earlier projection of a strong rebound from 2018 to a new record high. An expected production recovery in the EU constitutes the bulk of the year-on-year increase in world production. However, much bigger harvests than last year are also foreseen in other top producing countries, including the Russian Federation, Ukraine and the United States.

Total wheat utilization in 2019/20 is set to reach 759.5 million tonnes, 1.5 percent higher than in 2018/19. Total food use of wheat is forecast to approach 518 million tonnes, up 1.1 percent and rising in close tandem with world population growth. However, large supplies and competitive prices are likely to drive up feed use of wheat by 2.8 percent, a faster rate than was projected earlier, while industrial use is also anticipated to register strong growth.

Based on the latest production and utilization forecasts for 2019/20, global wheat inventories could climb to almost 275 million tonnes, the second highest level on record. If realized, stocks would be up 1.9 percent from their opening levels. However, most of the projected accumulation of world wheat stocks is expected to occur in China, where carryovers could increase by 8 percent to 129.0 million tonnes. While inventories in the EU and India are also expected to expand, notable declines are anticipated in Australia, the Russian Federation, Pakistan, Morocco and Turkey.

At around 172 million tonnes, the forecast for global wheat trade in 2019/20 (July/June) has been trimmed slightly in recent months, but still up from the 2018/19 reduced level. Larger wheat imports by drought-affected Morocco and higher purchases by several countries in Asia account for most of the forecast expansion in world trade. On the export side, while the Russian Federation is seen maintaining its position as the world’s largest wheat exporter, its overall wheat sales in 2019/20 could fall short of the previous season, in view of stiffer competition from other major exporters.

For additional analyses and updates, see:

FAO Cereal Supply and Demand Brief http://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation Crop Prospects and Food Situation http://www.fao.org/giews/reports/crop-prospectsAMIS Market Monitor http://www.amis-outlook.org/amis-monitoring

WHEAT

Contact:[email protected]

WHEAT PRODUCTION, UTILIZATION AND STOCKS

1 Trade refers to exports based on a common July/June marketing season.2 May not equal the difference between supply (defined as production plus

carryover stocks) due to differences in individual country marketing years.3 Major exporters include Argentina, Australia, Canada, EU, Kazakhstan, Russian

Fed., Ukraine and United States of America.4 Derived from the International Grains Council (IGC) wheat index.

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685

780

19/2017/1815/1613/1411/1209/10

million tonnes million tonnes

f’cast

Stocks (right axis)

Production (left axis) Utilization (left axis)

2017/18 2018/19estim.

2019/20f’cast

Change: 2019/20

over 2018/19May Nov

million tonnes %

WORLD BALANCE

Production 760.0 731.9 767.0 765.0 4.5

Trade1 177.4 168.2 173.5 172.1 2.3

Total utilization 737.9 748.0 756.9 759.5 1.5

Food 509.0 512.5 519.4 517.8 1.1

Feed 137.2 140.5 143.6 144.4 2.8

Other uses 91.6 95.1 94.0 97.2 2.3

Ending stocks2 284.5 269.8 278.0 274.9 1.9

SUPPLY AND DEMAND INDICATORS

Per caput food consumption:

World (kg/yr) 67.4 67.1 67.3 67.1 0.0

LIFDC (kg/yr) 49.0 49.1 49.0 49.0 -0.2

World stocks-to-use ratio (%)

38.0 35.5 36.2 35.7

Major exporters stocks-to-disappear-ance ratio3 (%)

21.0 17.4 18.7 16.8

FAO WHEAT PRICE INDEX4

(2002−2004=100)

2017 2018 2019 Jan-Oct

%Change Jan/Oct

2019 over Jan/Oct

2018

133 148 143 -3.1

WORLD WHEAT MARKET AT A GLANCE

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4 FOOD OUTLOOKNOVEMBER 2019

The global market of coarse grains in 2019/20 is set to tighten for a second consecutive season, despite an anticipated production recovery from the 2018 slump. Total production of coarse grains is forecast to reach at least 1 425 million tonnes in 2019, the second highest level on record, mostly underpinned by an increase in barley production (of 13.4 million tonnes). With record level maize production in Argentina and Brazil offsetting a poor harvest in the United States, global maize production is also set to increase, but only marginally (5 million tonnes).

Coarse grain total utilization in 2019/20 is expected to remain close to the 2018/19 level as strong growth in barley utilization, increasing by almost 5 percent from 2018/19, is likely to be countered by declining sorghum consumption, while maize use is expected to remain stable. For the first time in almost a decade, a contraction in feed use of coarse grains, especially maize, is likely in 2019/20. This is mostly because of a sharp anticipated drop in the feed use of maize in the United States from a record high level in 2018/19. In addition, maize use for feed is expected to be negatively influenced in several Asian countries, especially China because of the devastating impact of the African Swine Fever (ASF) on pig herds.

With consumption outweighing overall supplies for a second consecutive season, coarse grain inventories are forecast to fall again in 2019/20 (by 4 percent). China’s continued destocking, and a significant stock drawdown in the United States following a poor harvest, may result in a 25 million tonne contraction in global maize stocks. Reflecting this decline, the world coarse grains stocks-to-use and major exporters’ stocks-to-disappearance (defined as domestic consumption plus exports) ratios will decrease.

World trade in coarse grains in 2019/20 (July/June) is forecast to drop from the 2018/19 record, weighed down by a decline in maize trade on lower import demand especially in the EU. Reduced maize shipments from the United States, in part driven by a likely decline in this year’s production, and Ukraine are expected to be only partially offset by significant increases in maize exports from Argentina and Brazil. By contrast, increased import demand for barley in North Africa and Saudi Arabia is likely to be met by larger barley exports from Ukraine and the EU, boosting barley trade by almost 9 percent over 2018/19 levels.

For additional analyses and updates, see:

FAO Cereal Supply and Demand Brief http://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation Crop Prospects and Food Situation http://www.fao.org/giews/reports/crop-prospects AMIS Market Monitor http://www.amis-outlook.org/amis-monitoring

COARSE GRAINS

Contact:[email protected]

COARSE GRAIN PRODUCTION, UTILIZATION AND STOCKS

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Stocks (right axis)

Production (left axis) Utilization (left axis)

1 Trade refers to exports based on a common July/June marketing season.2 May not equal the difference between supply (defined as production plus opening

stocks) and utilization due to differences in indivdual countries’ marketing years3 Major exporters include Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, EU, Russian Fed.,

Ukraine and United States of America.

2017/18 2018/19estim.

2019/20f’cast

Change: 2019/20

over 2018/19May Nov

million tonnes %

WORLD BALANCE

Production 1 433.7 1 407.9 1 438.3 1 425.5 1.2

Trade1 196.6 197.8 190.8 195.3 -1.2

Total utilization 1 411.0 1 430.7 1 447.0 1 433.9 0.2

Food 211.7 216.2 216.9 216.4 0.1

Feed 796.2 806.4 812.1 805.0 -0.2

Other uses 403.1 408.0 418.0 412.5 1.1

Ending stocks2 421.8 409.4 390.5 393.6 -3.9

SUPPLY AND DEMAND INDICATORS

Per caput food consumption:

World (kg/yr) 28.0 28.3 28.1 28.1 -0.7

LIFDC (kg/yr) 36.5 37.1 36.4 36.3 -2.2

World stocks-to-use ratio (%)

29.5 28.6 25.7 26.2

Major exporters stocks-to-disap-pearance ratio3 (%)

15.7 15.3 14.2 14.9

FAO COARSE GRAIN PRICE INDEX

(2002−2004=100)

2017 2018 2019 Jan-Oct

%Change Jan/Oct

2019 over Jan/Oct

2018

146 156 162 3.7

WORLD COARSE GRAIN MARKET AT A GLANCE

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5FOOD OUTLOOKNOVEMBER 2019

An erratic unfolding of the northern hemisphere spring and summer rains has deteriorated the outlook for global rice production since May, providing modest support to international rice prices in an otherwise quiet trading environment.

Based on the latest forecasts, global rice production in 2019 is set to fall 0.8 percent below the 2018 all-time high. Much of this decline is expected to occur outside Asia, particularly in Australia, Brazil, Nigeria and the United States, often as a result of adverse weather, compounding diminished producer margins. On the other hand, Asia appears headed towards another abundant harvest, with anticipation that a shortfall in China and a slight reduction in India would be largely compensated by output expansions elsewhere in the region.

Prospects of a strong trade recovery in 2020 have been tempered by expectations that ample local availabilities will keep import demand in Asian countries subdued for another year. Nonetheless, global rice flows in 2020 are still forecast to exceed their 2019 level, as imports are anticipated to expand in all other regions. This is the case of Africa in particular, where countries such as Guinea, Senegal and Nigeria would need to purchase more to compensate for reduced production levels. With the exception of Australia, Brazil and Thailand, all traditional rice suppliers are expected to boost exports in 2020, although the largest increases are predicted for India and China. Indeed, continued growth in Chinese rice exports in 2020 could essentially eliminate the trade imbalance that China has had since emerging as a net importer of rice in 2011.

Growth in the food use of rice is predicted to slightly outpace population growth in 2019/20, lifting global utilization to a level that exceeds expected production. As a result, world rice inventories at the close of 2019/20 marketing seasons could decline, albeit to a level that would still stand out as the second highest on record. Rice importers are envisaged to account for all the stock drawdown, led by reductions in China and, to a lesser extent, Bangladesh and Indonesia. By contrast, reserves held by the five major exporting countries could rise to a five-year high, primarily on the back of another foreseen build-up in India.

For additional analyses and updates, see:

AMIS Market Monitorhttp://www.amis-outlook.org/amis-monitoringCereal Supply and Demand Briefhttp://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/csdb/ Crop Prospects and Food Situation http://www.fao.org/giews/reports/crop-prospects

RICE

Contact:[email protected] [email protected] (Production)

RICE PRODUCTION, UTILIZATION AND STOCKS

1 Calendar year exports (second year shown).2 May not equal the difference between supply (defined as production plus

carryover stocks) due to differences in individual country marketing years.3 Major exporters include India, Pakistan, Thailand, United States of America

and Viet Nam.

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f’cast

Stocks (right axis)

Production (left axis) Utilization (left axis)

2017/18 2018/19estim.

2019/20f’cast

Change: 2019/20

over 2018/19May Nov

million tonnes %

WORLD BALANCE

Production 509.4 517.5 516.8 513.4 -0.8

Trade1 48.4 46.2 48.9 47.7 3.1

Total utilization 506.5 510.1 518.5 515.9 1.1

Food 406.5 410.8 418.7 417.8 1.7

Ending stocks2 174.1 183.1 178.7 180.9 -1.2

SUPPLY AND DEMAND INDICATORS

Per caput food consumption:

World (kg/yr) 53.8 53.8 54.3 54.2 0.6

LIFDC (kg/yr) 57.3 57.1 58.1 57.8 1.1

World stocks-to-use ratio (%)

34.1 35.5 34.0 34.6

Major exporters stocks-to-disap-pearance ratio3 (%)

18.2 22.4 21.1 22.7

FAO RICE PRICE INDEX

(2002−2004=100)

2017 2018 2019 Jan-Oct

%Change Jan/Oct

2019 over Jan/Oct

2018

206 224 224 -1.0

WORLD RICE MARKET AT A GLANCE

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6 FOOD OUTLOOKNOVEMBER 2019

FAO’s preliminary forecasts for the 2019/20 season point to relatively balanced markets for oilseeds and derived products.

After reaching an all-time high in 2018/19, global oilseed production is anticipated to contract for the first time since 2015/16, mostly reflecting expected declines in soybean and rapeseed outputs that would outweigh foreseen gains in other oilcrops. Soybean production could fall short of last season’s record level, largely as a result of both a contraction in plantings and lower yields in the United States, amid unattractive production margins and unfavourable weather conditions. Regarding rapeseed, uncertain export prospects contained plantings in Canada, while in the EU and Australia, harvests have been compromised by prolonged dryness. As for palm oil, global production could slow, tied to a deceleration in area expansion and modest yield prospects in Indonesia and Malaysia.

On the demand side, global meal utilization is forecast to resume growth, albeit timidly – after being severely affected by the outbreaks of African Swine Fever (ASF) in 2018/19. Oils/fats consumption is also poised to expand at a below-average rate, reflecting generally stagnant economic growth and more moderate uptake by the biodiesel sector. However, based on current forecasts, global utilization of meals and oils would still outstrip production, triggering sizeable year-on-year drawdowns in meal/oil reserves. Despite the predicted tightening in global carry-over stocks, major exporters’ stock-to-disappearance ratios still point to a comfortable market situation.

International trade in meals and oils is expected to continue expanding in 2019/20, though at a relatively low rate, underpinned by the predicted slowdowns in global utilization and reductions in exportable supplies. Ongoing trade tensions between individual countries are poised to continue affecting markets for oilcrops and derived products, adding uncertainty to the market outlook.

Looking ahead, prices in the coming months will be influenced by weather conditions in South America and Southeast Asia, the evolvement of the ASF epidemic, implementation of domestic biodiesel policies, and trade policy developments. Should the current forecasts of sizeable drawdowns in global inventories materialize, prices of products in the oilcrops complex could gain ground compared with recent multi-year lows.

For additional analyses and updates, see:

Oilcrops Monthly Price and Policy Update http://www.fao.org/economic/est/publications/oilcrops-publications/ monthly-price-and-policy-update/AMIS Market Monitor http://www.amis-outlook.org/amis-monitoring

OILCROPS

Contact:[email protected]@fao.org

FAO MONTHLY INTERNATIONAL PRICE INDICES FOR OILSEEDS, VEGETABLE OILS AND MEALS/CAKES (2002-2004=100)

WORLD OILCROP AND PRODUCT MARKET AT A GLANCE

2017/18 2018/19estim.

2019/20 f’cast

Change: 2019/20

over 2018/19

million tonnes %

TOTAL OILCROPS

Production 592.1 607.0 590.9 -2.7

OILS AND FATS

Production 234.3 241.0 240.2 -0.3

Supply 271.1 280.3 280.0 -0.1

Utilization 228.5 240.9 245.7 2.0

Trade 124.6 130.2 131.8 1.2

Global stocks-to-use ratio (%) 17.2 16.5 14.2

Major exporters stocks-to-disappearance ratio (%) 11.8 13.6 11.9

MEALS AND CAKES

Production 152.3 157.0 150.7 -4.0

Supply 183.2 185.3 182.8 -1.3

Utilization 152.7 153.1 155.9 1.9

Trade 97.8 98.8 99.6 0.8

Global stocks-to-use ratio (%) 18.5 20.9 16.9

Major exporters stocks-to-disappearance ratio (%) 11.3 15.3 11.5

FAO PRICE INDICES Jan–Dec (2002–2004=100)

2017 2018 2019 Jan−Oct

%Change Jan/Oct 2019

overJan/Oct 2018

Oilseeds 152 150 142 -6.4

Meals/cakes 159 184 156 -16.9

Vegetable oils 169 144 131 -11.5

Note: For explanations on definitions and coverage kindly refer to previous issues of Food Outlook.

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7FOOD OUTLOOKNOVEMBER 2019

Source: Prices refer to the Sugar No. 11 contract traded at the New York Intercontinental Exchange (ICE)

International sugar markets are seen heading for a modest tightening in the 2019/20 marketing season, as production is forecast to fall below the previous season’s record level while world consumption is expected to expand. As a result, sugar inventories are predicted to decline in 2019/20.

FAO expects world sugar production to drop in 2019/20 (October/September), falling below total consumption. The forecast for global sugar production in 2019/20 has been revised downwards in recent months and is now pegged at just over 175 million tonnes, representing a 2.8 percent decrease from 2018/19. India, Thailand and Pakistan account for much of the anticipated year-on-year contraction in global sugar production. Unfavourable weather conditions during sugar cane tillering and elongation stages are largely behind the reduced output.

Global sugar consumption is set to expand by 1.4 percent in 2019/20, a modest increase compared with the growth registered in the previous season, but still below its long-term (10-year) trend, reflecting the growing consumer concerns about excess sugar consumption. Growth in sugar consumption is expected to be particularly marked in Africa, the Middle East and Latin America and the Caribbean, driven by rising per capita incomes and lower sugar prices.

World sugar trade is expected to expand in 2019/20, underpinned by a stronger import demand from the traditional sugar importing countries and ample availability in major exporting countries. The introduction of export incentives by some of the major exporting countries is also anticipated to boost global trade in sugar. Exports by Brazil and India are set to rise, prompted by abundant sugar stocks, but to fall in Thailand, the second largest sugar exporter, due to an 11 percent decrease in production. International sugar prices have followed a declining trend in recent months, weighed by large accumulated inventories in both importing and exporting countries, and a strengthening of the Brazilian real against the US dollar, which tends to stimulate shipments from Brazil, the world’s largest sugar exporter.

SUGAR

Contact:[email protected]@fao.org

INTERNATIONAL SUGAR PRICES

WORLD SUGAR MARKET AT A GLANCE

2017/18 2018/19estim.

2019/20 f’cast

Change: 2019/20

over 2018/19

million tonnes %

WORLD BALANCE

Production 183.2 180.1 175.1 -2.8

Trade 61.7 55.6 56.3 1.3

Total utilization 172.3 175.0 177.5 1.4

Ending stocks 89.0 93.9 91.4 -2.6

SUPPLY AND DEMAND INDICATORS

Per caput food consumption:

World (kg/yr) 22.9 23.0 23.0 0.26

LIFDC (kg/yr) 16.6 16.3 16.4 0.74

World stocks-to-use ratio (%)

51.7 53.7 51.5

ISA DAILY PRICEAVERAGE (US cents/lb)

2017 2018 2019Jan−Oct

%Change Jan/Oct

2019 overJan/Oct

2018

16.01 12.52 12.65 1.44

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2017

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2015

2018

US cents per lb.

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World meat production is forecast at around 335 million tonnes (in carcass weight equivalent) in 2019 1.0 percent lower than in 2018. This marks a departure from the stable growth trend recorded over the past two decades and indicates a sharper fall than anticipated in May, principally due to a deeper than earlier expected impact of African Swine Fever (ASF) in China and its spread to several East Asian countries. China’s meat output is forecast to fall by 8 percent, offsetting expected increases in production in several major producing countries, namely the United States, Brazil, the European Union and Argentina. The overall decline in China’s meat output reflects a contraction of pig meat output by at least 20 percent, partially offset by higher production of other meats. In the United States, a rise in carcass weights is sustaining growth, whereas in Brazil external demand is encouraging higher production. In the European Union, total meat output is also expected to expand, albeit slower than predicted earlier due to a likely decline in bovine meat production. Production gains are expected for all other categories of meat in the European Union, especially pig meat production, reflecting robust demand from China. Argentina’s meat production is likely to rise, primarily on increased culling.

World trade in meat and meat products is forecast at 36.0 million tonnes in 2019, up 6.7 percent from 2018, principally driven by increased imports by China due to domestic tightness caused by ASF-related production losses. China’s overall meat imports are expected to rise by 35 percent (around 2 million tonnes), with increased purchases across all meat categories. By contrast, several countries are expected to import less meat, including the United States and Angola. On the export side, much of the anticipated expansion in global demand is forecast to be met by Brazil, the European Union, the United States, Argentina, Thailand and Canada. However, limited export availabilities could depress meat shipments from Paraguay, Belarus and Uruguay.

International meat prices, measured by the FAO Meat Price Index, have continued to register moderate month-on-month increases since the start of 2019, with pig meat prices, frozen in particular, recording the sharpest rise due to the surge in import demand by China. Poultry, ovine and bovine meat prices strengthened, also supported by stronger Asian demand.

MEAT AND MEAT PRODUCTS

Contact:[email protected]

FAO INTERNATIONAL MEAT PRICE INDEX (2002−2004 = 100)

WORLD MEAT MARKET AT A GLANCE

2017 2018estim.

2019f’cast

Change: 2019 over 2018May Nov.

million tonnes (carcass weight equivalent)

%

WORLD BALANCE

Production 333.6 338.6 336.5 335.2 -1.0

Bovine meat 69.6 71.3 71.6 72.2 1.3

Poultry meat 122.3 124.6 128.4 130.5 4.7

Pig meat 119.8 120.7 115.6 110.5 -8.5

Ovine meat 15.2 15.3 15.3 15.4 0.8

Trade 32.7 33.8 35.4 36.0 6.7

Bovine meat 9.8 10.5 11.3 11.1 6.0

Poultry meat 13.2 13.5 13.8 14.1 4.4

Pig meat 8.2 8.4 9.1 9.4 12.2

Ovine meat 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 -1.2

SUPPLY AND DEMAND INDICATORS

Per caput food consumption:

World (kg/year) 44.0 44.2 43.4 43.3 -2.1

Trade - share of prod. (%)

9.8 10.0 10.5 10.8 7.7

FAO MEAT PRICE INDEX

(2002–2004=100)

2017 2018 2019 Jan−Oct

%Change Jan/Oct

2019 over

Jan/Oct 2018

170 166 173 3.6

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Poultry

Ovine

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Pigmeat

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2017 2018estim.

2019f’cast

Change: 2019 over 2018May Nov.

million tonnes (carcass weight equivalent)

%

WORLD BALANCE

Production 333.6 338.6 336.5 335.2 -1.0

Bovine meat 69.6 71.3 71.6 72.2 1.3

Poultry meat 122.3 124.6 128.4 130.5 4.7

Pig meat 119.8 120.7 115.6 110.5 -8.5

Ovine meat 15.2 15.3 15.3 15.4 0.8

Trade 32.7 33.8 35.4 36.0 6.7

Bovine meat 9.8 10.5 11.3 11.1 6.0

Poultry meat 13.2 13.5 13.8 14.1 4.4

Pig meat 8.2 8.4 9.1 9.4 12.2

Ovine meat 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 -1.2

SUPPLY AND DEMAND INDICATORS

Per caput food consumption:

World (kg/year) 44.0 44.2 43.4 43.3 -2.1

Trade - share of prod. (%)

9.8 10.0 10.5 10.8 7.7

FAO MEAT PRICE INDEX

(2002–2004=100)

2017 2018 2019 Jan−Oct

%Change Jan/Oct

2019 over

Jan/Oct 2018

170 166 173 3.6

Global milk production is forecast at 852 million tonnes in 2019, an increase of 1.4 percent from 2018 – a smaller rate of growth than earlier anticipated in May, reflecting downward revisions made for India and the European Union. Much of the anticipated output expansion will originate in India, Pakistan, China, the European Union and Brazil, partially offset by declines in some countries including Australia, Colombia and Argentina. In India and Pakistan, herd expansions drive output growth, while in China, farm efficiency improvements underpin the higher growth. In the European Union, output is rising, albeit slowly as dry weather during the summer constrained milk deliveries, while in Brazil, rising dairy herd and stable milk prices support higher production. By contrast, output may decline in Australia and Colombia due to dry weather, whereas in Argentina, rising feed costs and restrained consumer demand may dampen production. Elsewhere, in the United States, higher milk yields sustain the growth momentum, whereas in New Zealand, favourable weather supports a positive production outlook.

World trade in dairy products (in milk equivalent) in 2019 is forecast at 76 million tonnes, up 0.8 percent from 2018, significantly lower than the previous growth forecast. This emanates largely from a more subdued import growth forecast for China, reflecting expected import curtailments of butter, but also of whey products due to reduced demand from piggeries. Elsewhere, the Russian Federation, the Philippines, Indonesia and Japan may purchase more dairy products in 2019. Much of the expanded global supply is likely to come from New Zealand and the European Union, thanks to increased export availabilities and new trade agreements. By contrast, retaliatory tariffs, reduced demand for whey products as hog feed and strong competition will constrain dairy exports from the United States, while tighter export availabilities weigh on exports from Australia.

International dairy prices, measured by the FAO Dairy Price Index, rose by 24 percent between January and May of this year, largely driven by a strong global demand. Since June, price quotations for butter and cheese were subject to more downward pressure due to increased export availabilities, especially from New Zealand, whereas those for Skim Milk Powder (SMP) and Whole Milk Powder (WMP) drifted higher, reflecting strong import demand from Asia.

MILK AND MILK PRODUCTS

Contact:[email protected]

FAO INTERNATIONAL DAIRY PRICE INDEX (2002−2004 = 100)

WORLD DAIRY MARKET AT A GLANCE

2017 2018estim.

2019f’cast

Change: 2019 over 2018May Nov.

million tonnes milk equivalent

%

WORLD BALANCE

Total milk production 823.9 840.5 859.0 852.0 1.4

Total trade 72.8 75.6 76.1 76.2 0.8

SUPPLY AND DEMAND INDICATORS

Per caput food consumption:

World (kg/year) 109.1 110.1 111.3 110.4 0.3

Trade - share of prod. (%) 8.8 9.0 8.9 8.9 -0.6

FAO DAIRY PRICE INDEX(2002–2004=100)

2017 2018 2019 Jan−Oct

%Change Jan/Oct

2019 overJan/Oct

2018

202 193 199 1.2

50

140

230

320

410

500

201920182017201620152014

Butter

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Dairy PriceIndex

WMP

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10 FOOD OUTLOOKNOVEMBER 2019

No growth is expected for global fish production in 2019. Trade tensions are taking a heavy toll on consumers and businesses alike, with seafood trade expected to contract. 1

Global fish production is expected to be flat year-on-year for 2019, with a 3.4 percent decline in capture fisheries production offset by a 3.9 percent increase in aquaculture harvests. Cephalopods and cod are among the wild stocks for which supplies have been tight. Anchoveta production was also lower in the first fishing season (late April 2019 to late July 2019). Meanwhile, the growth trajectory of the aquaculture sector remains steady. Supplies of the major farmed finfish species will rise again in 2019, but shrimp production in Asia is expected to drop sharply. Both aquaculture and capture harvests have been affected by higher water temperatures this year.

Pressured by unfavourable macro-economic developments, in particular slower economic growth prospects and trade tensions, global trade in fish and fish products could contract this year, projected to drop by 1.2 percent in volume and 1.4 percent in value. Imports into the United States and the European Union are expected to fall marginally, while those to China are expected to increase substantially. In terms of exports however, China, will see a decline in export revenues, mainly driven by a drop in exports to the United States due to the trade war and associated tariffs.

Aside from the direct impact of tariffs on United States-China trade flows, the wider geopolitical uncertainty is translating into an increasingly cautious decision-making environment for seafood businesses, consumers and investors. The trade war is also driving potentially permanent transformations in key markets, including those for cephalopods, lobster, groundfish and tilapia, as Chinese exporters seek alternative markets and US buyers look for new suppliers. For other commodities, such as bivalves and small pelagics, the impact of trade tensions has been lower and the demand outlook is more positive.

The FAO Fish Price Index has fallen by 2.1 percent between January and September, compared with the same period last year, primarily due to price declines for many important farmed species, including shrimp, salmon, pangasius and tilapia, a consequence of both increased supplies and faltering demand. Prices are also weaker for canned tuna, with limited prospects for recovery.

1 Unless otherwise specified, the terms ‘fish’ and ‘seafood’ indicates fish, crustaceans, molluscs and other aquatic animals from farmed and wild origin, but excludes aquatic mammals, reptiles, seaweeds and other aquatic plants.

For additional analyses and updates, see:The GLOBEFISH market reports at http://www.fao.org/in-action/globefish/market-reports

FISH AND FISHERY PRODUCTS

Contact:[email protected]@fao.org

FAO FISH PRICE INDEX (2002−2004 = 100)

Source of the raw data for the FAO Fish Price Index: EUMOFA, INFOFISH, INFOPESCA, Statistics Norway.

80

105

130

155

180

2019201620142012201020082006200420022000

WORLD FISH MARKET AT A GLANCE

2017 2018estim.

2019f’cast

Change: 2019 over 2018May Nov

million tonnes (live weight) %

WORLD BALANCE

Production 172.6 177.7 177.8 177.8 0.0

Capture fisheries

92.5 94.5 91.3 91.3 -3.4

Aquaculture 80.1 83.2 86.5 86.5 3.9

Trade value (exports USD billion)

156.5 162.9 164.5 160.5 -1.4

Trade volume (live weight)

64.9 65.1 64.5 64.3 -1.2

Total utilization 172.6 177.7 177.8 177.8 0.0

Food 153.4 155.7 158.2 158.2 1.6

Feed 14.6 17.5 15.0 15.0 -14.2

Other uses 4.7 4.6 4.6 4.6 0.0

SUPPLY AND DEMAND INDICATORS

Per caput food consumption:

Food fish (kg/yr) 20.3 20.4 20.5 20.5 0.6

From capture fisheries (kg/year)

9.7 9.5 9.3 9.3 -2.0

From aquaculture (kg/year)

10.6 10.9 11.2 11.2 2.8

FAO FISH PRICE INDEX

(2002–2004=100)2017 2018 2019

Jan−Sept %Change Jan/Sept

2019 overJan/Sept

2018

158 158 156 -2.1

Source of the raw data for the FAO Fish Price Index: EUMOFA, INFOFISH, INFOPESCA, Statistics Norway. Refer to Appendix table 29 for further details.

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Sabine Altendorf1 [email protected]

Commercial banana production has been subject to

intensive farming techniques since the late nineteenth

century, with the emergence of large-scale trade from

Central American and Caribbean banana producing

countries to the United States and Europe. To cater for

rapidly growing demand in mostly far distant import

markets, producers identified the Gros Michel variety as

the most suitable for monoculture propagation and long

transport routes. By 1955, the global export volume of

bananas from Central American producers had reached

approximately 3 million tonnes, making bananas the

most exported fresh fruit globally – ahead of citrus fruits

and apples – at a volume share of 40 percent in world

fresh fruit trade.2

The Fusarium wilt disease of banana, scientifically

denominated as Fusarium oxysporum f. sp. cubense

and considered among the most destructive of all plant

diseases, was first detected in banana plantations in

Australia in 1876.3 The first large-scale outbreak in export

plantations was subsequently reported in 1890 in Panama.

A soil-borne pathogen, the mycelium and spores of

Fusarium wilt spread through: infected plants and planting

materials; soil particles attached to shoes, vehicles and

tools; water, including irrigation, drainage and floods; as

well as other physical means of spread. Facilitated by the

monoculture and intensive plantation cultivation techniques

and concentrated transport routes of the commercial

banana industry, by the mid-1950s, this first strain (Race

1) of Fusarium wilt had caused such enormous damage

to the production of Gros Michel that the export industry

was forced to switch its entire production to the Fusarium

wilt-resistant Cavendish variety. Official data suggest that

total losses to trade in Gros Michel bananas at the time

amounted to a current equivalent of USD 2.3 billion.4 Given

the decades-long persistence of the Fusarium wilt fungus

in the soil, Gros Michel bananas continue to be practically

absent from world export markets to this day.

TROPICAL RACE 4 – A RENEWED CHALLENGE TO GLOBAL BANANA SUPPLY

The current strain of the Banana Fusarium Wilt disease,

described as Tropical Race 4 (TR4), was first discovered

in 1970 in Cavendish banana plantations in Taiwan, and

then on a more severe scale in Cavendish plantations in

Indonesia and Malaysia in 1992/93. By the early 2000s,

TR4 had spread to Australia, Papua New Guinea, China

and the Philippines. In 2013, TR4 was discovered on

farms in northern Mozambique and in Jordan, and in

2015 it emerged in Lebanon, Oman, India and Pakistan.

Between 2017 and 2019, TR4 was found in Laos, Viet

Nam, Myanmar and Thailand. In August 2019, the fungus

was detected for the first time on a banana plantation in

Latin America, in the northeastern region of La Guajira,

Colombia. According to official information, TR4 is currently

confirmed in 17 countries, predominantly in South and

Southeast Asia.5 This fourth race of the fungus poses

particularly elevated risks to global banana supplies, as it

can affect a much broader variety of banana and plantain

cultivars than previous strains of Fusarium wilt.6 In addition,

there is currently no effective fungicide or other eradication

method that is capable of eliminating TR4. In affected

plants, the disease can quickly cause a total yield loss. Due

to the longevity of the fungus in the soil, infected land

becomes unavailable for banana or any other cultivation

for decades, resulting in a shift of production to new,

1 The author extends sincere thanks to Dr Charles Staver, Dr Altus Viljoen, Dr Diemuth Pemsl, Dr Lorna Herradura, Dr Randy Ploetz, Dr Tony Pattison and Dr Luis Pérez Vicente for their expert inputs on the probable spread of the disease.

2 May et al. (1958)3 Ordonez et al. (2015)

4 FAO (2019)5 FAO (2019) 6 Ploetz (2005)

The recent spread and potential future impact of the disease on global banana trade

Banana Fusarium Wilt Tropical Race 4: A mounting threat to global banana markets?

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14 FOOD OUTLOOKNOVEMBER 2019

unaffected land as the only recourse. Depending on the

severity of the spread, outbreaks can result in an increasing

scarcity of pathogen-free soils. In all reported cases, once

a farm has been contaminated, managing the disease

has proved extremely challenging and costly. This poses a

particular threat to the livelihoods of smallholder banana

producers in affected regions, who often lack the financial

means to sustain operations in the face of simultaneous

yield losses and increased production costs. In this regard,

prevention, rapid containment and quarantine are

particularly important.

Given the serious implications for infected farms,

precise and complete documentation of the damage

caused by TR4 is often unavailable. In the worst cases

of disease management, farms are abandoned without

reporting and without being adequately quarantined,

further impeding rapid containment of the disease. While

no global estimates are available, figures for some countries

indicate that the disease has affected around 15 700

hectares (ha) of banana plantations (out of a total 440 000

ha) in the Philippines,7 and some 70 percent of plantations

in China’s Guangdong and Hainan provinces.8 Annual

economic losses caused by TR4 have been estimated at

USD 121 million in Indonesia, USD 253 million in Taiwan

and USD 14 million in Malaysia.9 On the infected farm

in Mozambique, TR4 caused such severe damage to the

1,500-ha plantation within 4 years of the first detection of

the disease that the farm was forced to cease operations.10

BANANA MARKETS IN THE PRESENCE OF TR4 – SUPPLY SHORTAGES AND HIGHER PRICES BY 2028?

The very recent discovery of Fusarium wilt TR4 in the

world’s most significant net exporting region, Latin America

and the Caribbean, as well as its enduring occurrence

in Asia, has caused considerable alarm in the banana

export industry. To date, few estimates of the additional

disease-related costs to producers are available. However,

industry experts believe that, given the current annual

value of production for export and the importance of

Cavendish bananas for smallholders, it is possible that TR4

will eventually cause even greater losses than the original

strain of Fusarium wilt that affected the production of Gros

Michel bananas.

7 The Southern Mindanao Agriculture, Aquatic and Natural Resources Research and Development Consortium, as quoted by Freshplaza, 10 March 2016.

8 Chen et al. (2013)9 Aquino et al. (2013)10 Altus Viljoen, Stellenbosch University, South Africa

11 www.doi.org/10.1787/agr_outlook-2019-en

To assess the potential future impacts of TR4 on global

banana markets, a partial equilibrium commodity market

model covering national and international banana markets

was used. The model adopts the basic specifications for

supply, demand, trade and prices of FAO’s commodity

simulation model (COSIMO), which is used to generate

ten-year projections for global temperate agricultural

commodities on an annual basis. The underlying

assumptions of the model concerning the global economic

and demographic projections follow those outlined in the

OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook published in July 2019.11

The scenario presented herein regarding the hypothetical

market impact of TR4 provides suggestive rather than

predictive impact results, which should not be interpreted

as actual forecasts, but rather as an indicative basis for

informing policy decisions.

The time span for the simulation analysis covers

ten years, from 2019 to 2028, to enable a direct

comparison with the baseline projections, which were

produced in May 2019. These were based on ‘business-

as-usual’ assumptions, foreseeing normal weather,

no changes in policy, and in particular no changes in

the prevalence of crop diseases. Under the baseline

projections, global banana production will grow at an

annual rate of 1.5 percent over the ten-year period, to

reach approximately 135 million tonnes in 2028. Global

trade in bananas is projected to grow at a moderate rate

of 1 percent per year due to slowing demand in large

developed country import markets, where consumption is

forecast to reach near saturation levels.

As mentioned above, the framework underpinning

the assessment of the possible impacts of TR4 on global

banana markets is a standard multi-commodity, multi-

country partial equilibrium model. The scenario analysis

was adapted from a similar approach used by Acquaye

et al. (2005), who conducted an evaluation of the

economic consequences of an invasive species outbreak

for a large-country exporter applied to the case of

Citrus Canker. The results of the model are contingent

on the stylized assumptions of perfect competition and

homogenous world markets for bananas. In this regard,

the model deviates somewhat from the observed reality

of global banana markets, which may display regional

fragmentation and oligopolistic behaviour by large,

dominant banana corporations. However, the fundamental

conclusions reached by the analysis are consistent with

those of alternative model specifications. For example, an

uncontained spread of TR4 in fragmented markets would

lead to higher prices and larger economic losses to either

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Box: Bananas in food security and world markets

Bananas represent one of the most consumed and

traded fruits globally. In many developing countries,

bananas, along with their subcultivar plantains,

serve as a staple food that is included in many forms in

local diets. While precise statistics on consumption remain

sketchy due to the informality of subsistence cultivation

in many regions, Filipinos reportedly have the highest

per capita consumption of dessert bananas at around

60 kg per year, followed by Brazilians who consume a

slightly lower amount. In some African countries, such

as Angola and Rwanda, per capita consumption of all

dessert and cooking banana types combined exceeds

200 kg per year. Particularly in the rural areas of these

countries, bananas can provide up to 25 percent of daily

calorie intake.1 In tandem with the increase in the world

population to more than 7 billion people, global banana

production expanded from 21 million tonnes in 1961

to approximately 114 million tonnes in 2017. According

to some estimates, more than 100 billion bananas are

now consumed worldwide each year.2 The main driver

of this rapid rise in production has been the increasing

consumption requirements of the growing populations in

developing countries. The bulk of the global production

increase has taken place in top producing countries who

are also top consumers, such as Brazil, the Philippines

and, in particular, India and China. The total value of

global production stood at an estimated USD 38.5 billion

for bananas and USD 6.6 billion for plantains in 2016.

In addition, bananas have particular significance in

some of the least developed and low-income food-deficit

countries, where they contribute not only to household

food security as a staple, but also to income and

employment generation as a cash crop. At farmgate prices

of around USD 300-400 per tonne and typical smallholder

yields of 10-15 tonnes per hectare, bananas can generate

an estimated USD 3 000 to 6 000 per hectare per year.

Research conducted in 10 banana producing countries

revealed that revenue from banana farming can account

for some 75 percent of total monthly household income

for smallholder farmers.3 It is further estimated that

approximately 400 million workers rely on income from

direct employment in the banana industry globally.4

1 FAOSTAT2 Bananalink, http://www.bananalink.org.uk/all-about-bananas3 Bioversity (2012)4 FAO (2019)

Bananas play a similarly important role in developed

country importing markets, where they have ranked

among the most consumed fruits for decades. This is

reflected in the noticeable performance of the global

banana export market, which reached an unprecedented

19.2 million tonnes in 2018. Preliminary data for the

first half of 2019 suggest that global trade in bananas

expanded by a further 11 percent over the same period

of the previous year. Ample import demand in developed

markets, combined with strong yield-driven supply growth

in the leading exporting countries, have been the principal

factors behind this increase.

Globally, Latin America and the Caribbean ranks as the

largest banana exporting region, accounting for nearly

80 percent of world exports. Ecuador has been positioned

as the world’s leading exporter over the past several

decades, supplying an average of 5 to 6 million tonnes to

world markets per year. In 2018, Colombia ranked as the

fourth leading exporter globally with a total volume of

1.7 million tonnes, equivalent to approximately 9 percent

of global exports. Asia, the second largest supplier

of bananas for export, accounted for approximately

20 percent of global shipments in 2018, almost entirely

supplied by the Philippines, the dominant exporter in

the region. In terms of leading importers, the European

Union and the United States absorbed, respectively,

approximately 32 percent and 26 percent of total global

supplies in 2018. The Russian Federation, China and

Japan are also significant importers, albeit with single-

digit market shares in 2018.

Given the popularity of bananas in import markets,

their global value chains have been characterized by

intense competition between market actors all the way

to the retail level. This has exerted downward pressure

on prices at each stage, which resulted in producer prices

displaying little fluctuation and, by and large, remaining

at very low levels. Combined with rising production

costs, low prices and tight profit margins greatly hinder

the adequate remuneration of banana workers and

smallholder farmers and act as a major obstacle for

producers in coping with emerging challenges, in

particular the looming threat of TR4.

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16 FOOD OUTLOOKNOVEMBER 2019

producers or consumers in the respective regional producing

and trading countries. Similarly, relaxing the assumption

of perfect competition would lead to larger world price

increases, as oligopolistic behaviour would extract rents

from markets that are short in supply.

The scenario is further based on potential TR4 spread

rates and losses in harvested area in key banana producing

countries, which are provided in a CGIAR working paper

by Scheerer et al. (2018). The paper presents two spread

and loss scenarios, which are constructed from a base

probability of infection that hinges on the prevalence of

Cavendish monoculture in a producing country, as well

as internal geographical, phytosanitary, transport and

other factors.12 The high spread scenario assumes an

internal disease spread at a rate of 50 percent in five-

year time intervals up to 25 years. For the current study,

the estimated internal spread and impact on area in the

lower loss scenario presented by Scheerer et al. (2018) was

chosen, which anticipates incremental increases in losses

of 25 percent every five years. It should be noted that the

estimated internal spread rates show the area losses due to

TR4 to be increasing over time, indicating that the disease

impacts over a period beyond the ten years chosen for this

scenario would be amplified. Furthermore, although TR4

can affect a broad variety of banana cultivars, the analysis

presented in this assessment encompasses the possible

economic impact on the Cavendish variety only, which is

predominant in global trade and plays a significant role

in income and foreign exchange generation for exporting

countries.

Figure 1 shows the expected percentage of area

loss to the production of bananas in 2028 due to TR4

infection for each of the countries for which estimates are

provided. Weighted averages of the internal spread rates

of the Cavendish, AAA, Other AAA and EAH AAA banana

cultivars specified in the paper were calculated and applied

to total FAOSTAT banana production data.13 Scheerer et

al. (2018) determine that the highest rates of spread will

affect key producers in Asia, most notably China, the

Philippines, Pakistan and Viet Nam, as well as Mozambique

and Tanzania in Africa. At the time of writing, Scheerer

et al. assumed a TR4 arrival time in Colombia after ten

years. Considering the low score for the internal spread

rate identified for Latin American and Caribbean banana

producers, which results mainly from their superior internal

plant quarantine capabilities, the area loss due to TR4

infection was assumed to amount to 1.25 percent of

banana area in Colombia by 2028. Although neighbouring

key banana producing countries are at elevated risk of

contamination by TR4, most notably Ecuador, Peru, Brazil

and Panama, the current scenario does not include a

spread of TR4 outside the boundaries of Colombia. This

was based on the absence of sound scientific assessments

regarding the potential arrival of TR4 in those countries.

Information gathered by the author from leading plant

pathologists and banana experts pointed to the conclusion

that assigning a rate of spread within Latin America

and the Caribbean would at this stage be difficult and,

moreover, highly speculative, given that any hypothetical

spread may hinge on many unpredictable and virtually

unmanageable factors. Similarly, it has proved difficult to

pinpoint the precise costs of containment and prevention

of TR4. As such, in the current scenario, production

costs for both affected and unaffected countries have

not been adjusted to reflect the numerous additional

expenses arising from TR4 adaptation and mitigation. As

more information becomes available, the scenario can be

modified to reflect realistic estimates of these costs.

12 As Scheerer et al. (2018) explain, factors linked to the time lag for TR4 to reach a country include the importance of mono-cropped Cavendish bananas in the country; global banana traffic to and from a country; quality of borders and internal plant quarantine measures; and land and other links to countries where TR4 is currently present. The rate of internal spread was rated based on three factors: quality of internal quarantine measures; importance of Cavendish bananas; and the importance of banana for research investment and public policy. These two elements were then combined in an aggregated score that was used to estimate banana production area loss by country.

13 For the case of India, Scheerer et al. (2018) assume an arrival of TR4 in the country after ten years. However, official information specifies that TR4 has been present in India since 2015. In the absence of estimates for the production area lost due to TR4 in the first ten years as otherwise adapted from

Table 7 in Scheerer et al. (2018), a moderate spread rate arriving at a loss of 2.5 percent of total area as indicated in Figure 2 of the same paper was chosen as indicative of a potential spread of TR4 in India.

14 Adapted from Scheerer et al., (2018)

Figure 1. Area loss after 10 years due to Fusarium wilt TR4 at 25 percent internal spread rate14

0

5

10

15

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stan

Mal

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a

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nesi

a

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a

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a

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Moz

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Percentage area loss in 2028 relative to total area in 2019

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17FOOD OUTLOOKNOVEMBER 2019

15 The implementation of a linearly increasing rather than exponential disease spread, which may be more reflective of the actual disease spread, facilitates the projected area losses after ten years as provided by Scheerer et al. (2018).

For the current scenario, the banana area response

equation of the model was shifted in linearly increasing

steps from 2019 to 2028 in each of the countries for

which data are provided, arriving at the assumed area

losses by 2028, as displayed in Figure 1.15 Compared with

the baseline projection, this would lead to a loss of an

estimated 160 000 hectares globally by 2028. Assuming

an average of 1.5 workers per hectare, this would imply

the loss of direct employment for approximately 240 000

banana workers. In terms of production volume, the

area loss would result in a 2.8 million tonne or 2 percent

reduction in global banana production by 2028. Since

markets would ration reduced supply, the decline in world

production would induce a 9.2 percent rise in the global

reference price for bananas by 2028, contingent on the

inelastic demand for bananas, which would cause prices to

rise more than production would fall. As further illustrated

in Figure 2, global trade, which would rise to partially

compensate for shortages in domestic supply in affected

producing countries, would increase by 3 percent over the

baseline by 2028.

Looking at the potential impact on banana production

by region, given the sizeable projected area losses in several

Asian and Southeast Asian countries (Figure 3), aggregate

losses would be most pronounced in Asia, amounting to

an estimated 3.9 million tonnes in 2028 relative to the

baseline. Again, because such substantial losses to the

world market would result in a rise in the world reference

price, producers in unaffected countries would receive

a stimulus to increase their production, thereby partially

offsetting the losses incurred in Asia. Accordingly, the

Latin America and Caribbean region, which is assumed to

remain mostly unaffected by TR4 in the current simulation,

is projected to produce 1.2 million more tonnes of bananas

in 2028 than in the baseline scenario. Small increases in

production over the baseline are also expected for banana

cultivation in the developed country producers – notably

in the European Union and South Africa – and in the Near

East, which are similarly assumed to remain unaffected by

TR4.

Globally, producer receipts would increase on account

of significantly higher prices, more than offsetting lower

production. Producers in unaffected countries would gain

considerably under this scenario, particularly those in the

highly exporting Latin American and Caribbean countries.

However, in countries affected by TR4, banana producers

would incur considerable losses. This would particularly

apply to producers in China, Indonesia, Pakistan, the

Philippines, Viet Nam and Mozambique, where future

area and production losses are assumed to be greatest,

translating into significant losses of gross incomes and

employment in the banana sector in these countries.

In terms of global exports, the shortage in supplies

from Asia would, to some extent, be offset by increased

exports from Latin America and the Caribbean (Figure 4).

Compared with the baseline scenario, Asia would export

880 000 tonnes less per year by 2028, while the Latin

America and Caribbean region would see its exports rise

by 1.5 million tonnes, thereby further strengthening its

dominance in world markets. On a net trade basis, i.e.

when subtracting imports from exports, Asia would incur

losses of approximately 2 million tonnes per year by 2028

Figure 2. Scenario impact on production, price and trade in the global banana market

-4

0

4

8

12

World tradeWorld productionWorld Price

20282027202620252024202320222021202020192018

Percentage change from baseline

Figure 3. Scenario impact on banana production by region by 2028

-5000

-3600

-2200

-800

600

2000

Developed Middle Eastand North Africa

Asia

Latin Americaand the Caribbean

Other Developing Africa

World

20282027202620252024202320222021202020192018

Change from baseline in thousand tonnes

0

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18 FOOD OUTLOOKNOVEMBER 2019

under this scenario, highlighting the severely damaging

consequences of an unabated spread of TR4.

As displayed in Figure 5, in order to satisfy internal

demand, Asia would be obliged to import approximately

1.1 million tonnes per year more than it would have in the

absence of TR4. Import prices in developed countries, the

main importers of bananas, would meanwhile rise, resulting

in an estimated volume reduction of 370 000 tonnes

in 2028. In conjunction with elevated prices, the rise in

exports from Latin America and the Caribbean would

translate into considerably higher export revenues for

suppliers from this region.

On account of the resulting higher prices, the economic

costs to consumers in all regions would increase (Figure 6).

Globally, on average, while consuming almost a 2-percent

lower volume of bananas, consumers would spend

1.8 percent more on bananas by 2028 than they would

have under the baseline scenario. Regionally, the worst

impact would be felt by consumers in developed country

markets, where price elasticities for bananas tend to be

comparatively low and price transmission high, resulting in

a 3.2-percent increase from the baseline price by 2028.

The projections suggest that a further spread of TR4

would entail considerable loss of income and employment

in the banana sector in the affected countries, at varying

degrees contingent on the internal spread of the disease.

Consumers in all countries with open markets would face

rising costs due to higher prices, as market effects would

transmit across borders. In affected producing countries,

consumer costs could rise significantly as a result of possible

border controls designed to protect domestic producers.

Meanwhile, producers in unaffected countries would gain

from the higher prices induced by the global area losses

caused by TR4, and would additionally receive incentives to

increase production. Unaffected exporting countries would,

correspondingly, capture higher export revenues resulting

from higher volumes of shipments at higher unit values.

MITIGATING THE THREAT OF TR4

The simulation results suggestively illustrate the likely far-

reaching repercussions that an unmitigated spread of TR4

would have on global banana markets. The underlying

postulations of the simulation assume a low-spread

scenario, implying that the potential impact on world

banana supply and world banana markets could translate

into significantly larger effects should the disease spread

more rapidly or further afield. In particular, given the

importance of the Latin America and Caribbean region

in global banana exports, the specific outcome of the

Figure 4. Scenario change in banana exports by 2028

-1500

-800

-100

600

1300

2000

DevelopedMiddle Eastand

North Africa

AsiaLatin Americaand the

Caribbean

OtherDeveloping

Africa

World

Change from baseline in 2028 in thousand tonnes

0

Figure 5. Scenario change in banana imports by 2028

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

Change from baseline in 2028 in thousand tonnes

DevelopedMiddle Eastand

North Africa

AsiaLatin Americaand the

Caribbean

OtherDeveloping

Africa

World

Figure 6. Percentage change in consumer expenditures on bananas by 2028

0

1

2

3

4

DevelopedMENAAsiaLACDeveloping Africa

World

Percentage change from baseline in 2028

DevelopedMiddle Eastand

North Africa

AsiaLatin Americaand the

Caribbean

OtherDeveloping

Africa

World

Co

mm

od

ity Focu

s

19FOOD OUTLOOKNOVEMBER 2019

impact on global markets would hinge on whether the

recent outbreak of TR4 in Colombia can be contained

or not. In the best case scenario, the disease would not

spread further, resulting in no significant impact on global

markets diverging from the projections presented here over

the next decade.

In the worst case scenario, a wide spread of TR4 in Latin

America and the Caribbean would have a considerable

economic impact on trade, food security and the economic

wellbeing of producing countries in the region, as well as

on producers in other exporting countries and consumers

in importing countries. The potential repercussions of

infection by TR4 are of even greater concern to organic

banana production, since organic agricultural practices

do not permit genetic modifications, leaving classical

breeding of disease-resistant cultivars as the only option

for adaptation. This would be particularly alarming for the

main producing countries of organic bananas that border

Colombia, notably Peru and Ecuador.

In view of the wide-ranging potential ramifications

on both conventional and organic banana markets, the

recent outbreak of TR4 in Colombia necessitates elevated

vigilance in the banana sector, not only in Latin America

and the Caribbean, but also globally. The expertise of a

leading plant pathologist suggests that future banana

production may only become viable for growers who are

able to implement more advanced management techniques

and financially sustain significantly higher investments into

disease prevention.16 Governments of producing countries

have a key role to play in mitigating the spread of TR4

and managing the disease where it has already emerged,

particularly in view of its potential impact on smallholder

banana farmers and workers employed in the industry.

Close co-ordination of the capacity-development and

extension activities of all concerned national institutions

will be beneficial to the development of proper policies,

regulations and strategic measures that address the

challenges of TR4 in a comprehensive way. National

support schemes drawn up in strategic collaboration

with different stakeholders and designed to assist in the

implementation of adequate biosecurity measures, as

well as in the facilitation of diversified production systems

that have shown to be less susceptible to TR4 infection

than monocropping systems, may serve as responses that

can alleviate the problem. Such compensating or support

schemes may further contribute to containment of the

disease, by easing the moral hazard problem of farmers not

reporting and not treating infected plantations properly.

Markets and open trade display considerable potential

to mitigate global economic costs of a greater spread

of TR4, given the role of trade as a balancing force

between supply and demand. As previously described,

higher production in unaffected countries would largely

compensate for lower production in affected countries.

However, both national and global welfare costs can only

be efficiently contained if open trade is maintained. Closing

borders to trade would rapidly raise the economic costs of

the disease in domestic markets. As such, those developed

countries that are on a high net import position in banana

trade would benefit from investing in research on TR4

prevention and mitigation, since the impact on consumers

in developed country markets would be relatively high.

Similarly, net exporting countries stand to benefit from

investments in effective disease management strategies,

as containment of disease spread will enable exporters to

benefit from increased market access.

An assessment of the economic returns to four different

banana research investments conducted by Scheerer et

al. (2018) suggests that investments in integrated crop

and disease management, as well as in the development

of either conventional or genetically modified Fusarium-

resistant banana cultivars, would yield the highest internal

rates of return of the assessed options. The potential of

Fusarium-resistant banana cultivars in managing epidemics

of TR4 also seems evident in the progressive experiences

with somaclone varieties on some commercial farms.17 In

conjunction with stringently imposed biosecurity measures,

including early detection, effective eradication and on-

farm quarantine, the planting of the partially TR4-resistant

somaclonal Giant Cavendish Tissue Culture Variants

appears to have significantly aided in counteracting losses

from TR4. Recent advances in the development of fully

Fusarium-resistant Cavendish varieties using chemical

mutagenesis techniques or gamma radiation may offer

an even more holistic solution to abating the threat from

TR4.18 Strengthened international collaboration, particularly

with regards to enhanced data collection and information

sharing, will further support improved awareness,

prevention and containment of Fusarium wilt TR4 and

be conducive to more resilient global banana production

systems.

16 Dr Charles Staver, Bioversity International, Montpellier, France

17 www.banana-networks.org/Bapnet/2016/02/22/fusarium-wilt-resistant-cavendish-cultivars/

18 www.iaea.org/newscenter/news/iaea-fao-help-develop-bananas-resistant-to-major-fungal-disease

Co

mm

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Focu

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20 FOOD OUTLOOKNOVEMBER 2019

REFERENCES

Acquaye, A. K. A., Alston, J. M., Lee, H. & Sumner, D. A. 2005. Economic Consequences of Invasive Species

Policies in the Presence of Commodity Programs:

Theory and Application to Citrus Canker. Review of

Agricultural Economics Volume 27, Number 3: 498-

504.

Alston, J. M., Norton, G. W., Pardey, P. G. 1998. Science

under Scarcity. Principles and Practice for Agricultural

Research Evaluation and Priority Setting. Oxford, UK.

Aquino, A. P., Bandoles, G.G. & Lim, V.A.A. 2013. R&D

and policy directions for effective control of Fusarium

Wilt Disease of Cavendish banana in the Asia-Pacific

region, retrieved 15 May 2017.

Chen, X., Dong, T., Huang, Y. & Yi, G. 2013. Socio-

economic impact of Fusarium wilt on Cavendish

banana in China. Paper presented at the Consultation-

Workshop on the Socio-economic Impacts of Fusarium

Wilt Disease of Cavendish Banana in the Asia-Pacific

Region. Davao City, Philippines, 11-15 November.

Cook, D. C., Taylor, A. S., Meldrum, R. A. & Drenth, A. 2015. Potential economic impact of Panama disease

(tropical race 4) on the Australian banana industry.

Journal of Plant Diseases and Protection, Vol. 122, No.

5/6: 229-237.

May, S. & Plaza, G. 1958. The United Fruit Company in

Latin America. National Planning Association.

Ordonez N, Seidl MF, Waalwijk C, Drenth A, Kilian A, Thomma BPHJ, et al. 2015. Worse Comes to Worst:

Bananas and Panama Disease—When Plant and

Pathogen Clones Meet. PLoS Pathog 11(11).

Pemsl, D.E. & Staver, C. 2014. Strategic assessment of

banana research priorities. Lima, CGIAR Research

Program on Roots, Tubers and Bananas (RTB). RTB

Working Paper 2014-2.

Peterson, E. & Orden, D. 2006. Linking Risk and Economic

Assessments in the Analysis of Plant Pest Regulations:

The Case of U.S. Imports of Mexican Avocados.

Selected Paper prepared for presentation at the

American Agricultural Economics Association Annual

Meeting, Long Beach, California, July 23-26.

Ploetz, R. C. & Pegg, K. 1997. Fusarium wilt of banana

and Wallace’s line: Was the disease originally restricted

to his Indo-Malayan region?. Australasion Plant

Pathology 26: 239-249.

Ploetz, R. C. 2015. Fusarium wilt of banana.

Phytopathology 102: 1512-1521.

Ploetz, R. C. 2015. Management of Fusarium wilt of

banana: A review with special reference to tropical

race 4, Crop Protection 73, 7-15.

Scheerer, L., Pemsl, D., Dita, M., Perez Vicente L. & Staver, C. 2018. A quantified approach to projecting

losses caused by Fusarium Wilt Tropical Race 4. Acta

horticulturae, 1196, March 2018.

Scheerer, L., Staver, C., Dita, M., Perez V., L. & Pemsl, D. 2018. Strategic assessment of Banana Fusarium

Wilt research priorities. A quantified approach to

project losses caused by Fusarium Wilt Tropical Race 4

& results of the ex-ante assessment of four Fusarium

research options. CGIAR Research Programme on

Roots, Tubers and Bananas (RTB). Lima, RTB Working

Paper.

Stokstad, E. 2019. Devastating banana disease may have

reached Latin America, could drive up global prices.

Sciencemag.org, 17 July 2019. (also available at www.

sciencemag.org/news/2019/07/devastating-banana-

disease-may-have-reached-latin-america-could-drive-

global-prices).

21FOOD OUTLOOKNOVEMBER 2019

Ma

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23FOOD OUTLOOKNOVEMBER 2019

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e co

nti

nu

ed c

om

pet

itiv

enes

s an

d e

ffici

ency

of

rail

tran

spo

rt n

etw

ork

s.

Ch

ile

Jun

-19

Wh

eat

Trad

e p

olic

yIn

crea

sed

ap

plic

able

dis

cou

nts

on

cu

sto

ms

du

ties

fo

r w

hea

t an

d w

hea

t o

r m

eslin

flo

ur

fro

m U

SD 9

1.6

to U

SD 9

7.9

per

to

nn

e,

and

fro

m U

SD 1

42.9

to

USD

152

.8 p

er t

on

ne,

res

pec

tive

ly. T

hes

e d

isco

un

ts w

ere

to a

pp

ly f

or

a tw

o-m

on

th p

erio

d s

tart

ing

on

16

Jun

e 20

19.

Au

g-1

9W

hea

tTr

ade

po

licy

Red

uce

d t

he

dis

cou

nts

on

cu

sto

ms

du

ties

fo

r w

hea

t an

d w

hea

t o

r m

eslin

flo

ur.

The

dis

cou

nts

will

ap

ply

fo

r a

two

-mo

nth

per

iod

st

arte

d o

n 1

6 A

ug

ust

201

9. T

he

app

licab

le d

isco

un

ts h

ave

dec

reas

ed f

rom

USD

97.

9 to

USD

84.

6 p

er t

on

ne

of

wh

eat,

an

d f

rom

U

SD 1

52.8

to

USD

131

.9 p

er t

on

ne

of

wh

eat

or

mes

lin fl

ou

r.

Ch

ina

(Mai

nla

nd

)

May

-19

Gra

ins

Pro

du

ctio

n s

up

po

rtR

elea

sed

a w

arn

ing

ag

ain

st t

he

spre

ad o

f Fa

ll A

rmyw

orm

an

d it

s p

ote

nti

al n

egat

ive

imp

act

on

th

e o

utp

ut

and

qu

alit

y o

f g

rain

s in

no

rth

ern

are

as.

May

-19

Mai

ze a

nd

wh

eat

Imp

ort

tar

iff

Incr

ease

d t

arif

fs o

n U

SD 6

0 b

illio

n w

ort

h o

f U

S g

oo

ds,

fro

m 1

0 to

25

per

cen

t o

n L

ist

1 p

rod

uct

s, 1

0 to

20

per

cen

t o

n L

ist

2 p

rod

uct

s, a

nd

5 t

o 1

0 p

erce

nt

on

Lis

t 3

pro

du

cts,

wh

ich

incl

ud

e w

hea

t, m

aize

an

d s

oy

pro

du

cts.

Jun

-19

Gra

ins

Pro

du

ctio

n s

up

po

rt 

Rec

om

men

ded

a li

st o

f 25

pes

tici

des

fo

r em

erg

ency

use

ag

ain

st a

rmyw

orm

s u

nti

l Dec

emb

er 2

020.

Jul-

19W

hea

tIm

po

rt p

olic

yA

pp

rove

d im

po

rts

of

wh

eat

fro

m R

uss

ia's

Ku

rgan

reg

ion

.

Au

g-1

9M

aize

, wh

eat

and

so

rgh

um

Imp

ort

du

tyA

nn

ou

nce

d t

hat

ad

dit

ion

al d

uti

es o

f 10

per

cen

t o

n U

S w

hea

t, m

aize

an

d s

org

hu

m w

ill e

nte

r in

to f

orc

e o

n 1

5 D

ecem

ber

201

9.

Oct

-19

Mai

zeG

ove

rnm

ent

mar

ket

inte

rven

tio

nA

nn

ou

nce

d t

hat

sta

te-h

eld

au

ctio

ns

for

mai

ze r

eser

ves

will

co

ncl

ud

e b

y 18

Oct

ob

er 2

019,

mar

kin

g a

n e

nd

to

fo

ur

year

s o

f au

ctio

ns.

Oct

-19

Wh

eat

Pro

cure

men

t p

rice

Set

the

2020

min

imu

m p

urc

has

ing

pri

ce f

or

do

mes

tic

wh

eat

at C

NY

2 2

40 (

USD

316

.08)

per

to

nn

e, t

he

sam

e le

vel a

s 20

19, b

ut

said

it w

ill c

ap t

he

volu

me

it b

uys

fro

m f

arm

ers

un

der

th

e g

uar

ante

e p

rog

ram

me

at 3

7 m

illio

n t

on

nes

.

Oct

-19

Mai

ze a

nd

wh

eat

Pro

du

ctio

n s

up

po

rtEx

ten

ded

th

e in

sura

nce

co

vera

ge

on

mai

ze a

nd

wh

eat

pla

nti

ng

s to

ove

r 70

per

cen

t b

y 20

22 a

t th

e p

rem

ium

of

1 p

erce

nt

of

valu

e-ad

ded

ag

ricu

ltu

ral o

utp

ut.

25FOOD OUTLOOKNOVEMBER 2019

Gra

ins

CO

UN

TRY

DA

TEC

OM

MO

DIT

YPO

LIC

Y IN

STR

UM

ENT

DES

CR

IPTI

ON

Egyp

t

Jul-

19W

hea

tIm

po

rt r

equ

irem

ents

Co

nfi

rmed

th

e m

ain

ten

ance

of

a 13

.5 p

erce

nt

mo

istu

re c

on

ten

t re

qu

irem

ent

in w

hea

t im

po

rts

(tri

ticu

m a

esti

vum

) u

nti

l Ap

ril

2020

.

Oct

-19

Wh

eat

Go

vern

men

t m

arke

t in

terv

enti

on

Issu

ed d

ecre

e N

°. 1

66 f

or

2019

, wh

ich

sta

tes

that

sp

ecifi

cati

on

s o

f su

bsi

diz

ed fl

ou

r ex

trac

tio

n 8

2 p

erce

nt

hav

e b

een

alt

ered

. Mill

o

wn

ers

and

man

ager

s w

ho

are

lice

nse

d t

o p

rod

uce

wh

eat

flo

ur

extr

acti

on

82

per

cen

t ar

e to

pro

du

ce fl

ou

r as

per

th

e fo

llow

ing

sp

ecifi

cati

on

s: t

he

mo

istu

re r

ate

wo

uld

no

t ex

ceed

14

per

cen

t; a

sh c

on

ten

t o

n d

ry m

atte

r b

asis

wo

uld

no

t ex

ceed

0.1

per

cen

t;

fib

res

wo

uld

no

t ex

ceed

0.4

per

cen

t; s

and

wo

uld

no

t ex

ceed

0.1

per

cen

t. T

he

flo

ur

wo

uld

be

free

of

red

sh

ort

s, a

s w

ell a

s o

f so

ft a

nd

co

arse

bra

n; c

lean

an

d f

ree

of

inse

cts

in a

ll it

s st

ages

an

d f

ree

of

fore

ign

mat

ter,

and

wo

uld

hav

e a

nat

ura

l co

lou

r an

d

od

ou

r.

Esw

atin

iJu

n-1

9M

aize

Go

vern

men

t m

arke

t in

terv

enti

on

Rai

sed

mai

ze s

ellin

g p

rice

to

SZL

4 0

00 (

USD

283

) p

er t

on

ne

and

th

e b

uyi

ng

pri

ce t

o S

ZL 2

800

(U

SD 1

98)

per

to

nn

e, a

bo

ut

15

per

cen

t an

d 8

per

cen

t h

igh

er t

han

last

yea

r's

leve

ls, r

esp

ecti

vely

.

Eth

iop

iaO

ct-1

9W

hea

tPr

od

uct

ion

su

pp

ort

Lau

nch

ed a

n in

itia

tive

to

pro

du

ce w

hea

t in

th

ree

low

lan

d b

asin

s o

f th

e co

un

try:

Aw

ash

, Wab

esh

ebel

le a

nd

Om

o b

asin

s,

loca

tio

ns

wh

ere

wh

eat

pro

du

ctio

n w

as n

ot

pre

vio

usl

y p

ract

ised

. Th

e lo

wla

nd

wh

eat

init

iati

ve w

ill c

ove

r m

ore

th

an 1

32 0

00

hec

tare

s (h

a) o

f la

nd

acr

oss

th

e th

ree

bas

ins,

an

d is

exp

ecte

d t

o p

rod

uce

nea

rly

6 m

illio

n q

uin

tals

of

wh

eat,

alo

ng

wit

h m

ore

th

an 1

00 0

00 q

uin

tals

of

imp

rove

d w

hea

t se

eds.

Euro

pea

n U

nio

n

Jun

-19

Gra

ins

Trad

e ag

reem

ent

A t

rad

e ag

reem

ent

was

sig

ned

bet

wee

n t

he

EU a

nd

So

uth

ern

Co

mm

on

Mar

ket

(MER

CO

SUR

) co

un

trie

s (A

rgen

tin

a, B

razi

l, Pa

rag

uay

an

d U

rug

uay

) th

at w

ill p

rog

ress

ivel

y en

han

ce m

arke

t ac

cess

fo

r g

oo

ds

and

ser

vice

s, w

hile

pro

mo

tin

g c

oo

per

atio

n in

cu

sto

ms

issu

es, f

oo

d s

afet

y an

d s

ust

ain

able

tra

de.

Jul-

19M

aize

GM

O p

olic

yA

pp

rove

d im

po

rts

of

new

GM

cro

ps

for

pro

cess

ing

an

d u

se in

fo

od

an

d f

eed

, in

clu

din

g 6

mai

ze t

rait

s an

d o

ne

stac

ked

-tra

it

mai

ze li

ne

(res

ult

ing

fro

m t

he

com

bin

atio

n o

f ap

pro

ved

sin

gle

tra

its)

. Im

po

rt a

pp

rova

ls f

or

foo

d a

nd

fee

d w

ere

also

ren

ewed

fo

r o

ne

GM

mai

ze li

ne

and

on

e va

riet

y o

f g

lufo

sin

ate-

tole

ran

t o

ilsee

d r

ape.

Jul-

19G

rain

sG

ove

rnm

ent

sup

po

rt

In t

he

wak

e o

f a

pro

lon

ged

dro

ug

ht,

th

e Eu

rop

ean

Co

mm

issi

on

fac

ilita

ted

th

e co

llect

ion

of

dir

ect

pay

men

ts a

nd

ru

ral

dev

elo

pm

ent

fun

ds

un

der

th

e C

om

mo

n A

gri

cult

ura

l Po

licy

(CA

P), t

hu

s al

low

ing

pro

du

cers

to

co

llect

a h

igh

er s

har

e o

f p

aym

ent

adva

nce

s in

mid

-Oct

ob

er in

stea

d o

f D

ecem

ber

. In

ad

dit

ion

, to

man

age

po

ssib

le f

od

der

sh

ort

ages

, dev

iati

on

s fr

om

cer

tain

CA

P g

reen

ing

req

uir

emen

ts w

ill b

e g

ran

ted

, fo

r ex

amp

le t

o a

llow

fal

low

lan

d t

o b

e u

sed

fo

r g

razi

ng

.

Ind

ia

Ap

r-19

Wh

eat

Imp

ort

du

tyIn

crea

sed

th

e im

po

rt d

uty

on

wh

eat

fro

m 3

0 p

erce

nt

to 4

0 p

erce

nt,

in a

n e

ffo

rt t

o c

urb

imp

ort

s an

d o

fflo

ad e

xces

s g

rain

fro

m

sto

rag

e u

nit

s.

Ap

r-19

Wh

eat

Go

vern

men

t m

arke

t in

terv

enti

on

An

no

un

ced

th

e re

serv

e p

rice

of

wh

eat

for

sale

un

der

th

e o

pen

mar

ket

sale

sch

eme

(OM

SS)

for

the

firs

t q

uar

ter

of

MY

201

9/20

(A

pri

l-Ju

ne)

at

INR

20

800

(USD

301

) p

er t

on

ne,

wit

h a

n in

crem

ent

of

INR

550

(U

SD 8

) p

er t

on

ne

in t

he

sub

seq

uen

t th

ree

qu

arte

rs.

May

-19

Wh

eat

Go

vern

men

t m

arke

t in

terv

enti

on

Fixe

d t

he

rese

rve

pri

ce o

f w

hea

t u

nd

er o

pen

mar

ket

sale

fro

m o

ffici

al s

tock

at

INR

2 0

80 p

er q

uin

tal (

USD

292

.4 p

er t

on

ne)

, m

uch

hig

her

th

an t

he

min

imu

m s

up

po

rt p

rice

, du

rin

g t

he

pro

cure

men

t p

erio

d A

pri

l–Ju

ne

and

an

no

un

ced

an

INR

55

per

qu

inta

l (U

SD 7

.7 p

er t

on

ne)

incr

ease

in e

ach

of

the

sub

seq

uen

t q

uar

ters

.

Jun

-19

Mai

zeIm

po

rt p

olic

yA

llow

ed im

po

rts

of

100

000

ton

nes

of

mai

ze, a

t a

red

uce

d im

po

rt d

uty

of

15 p

erce

nt

(60

per

cen

t st

and

ing

du

ty).

Jul-

19B

arle

y an

d m

aize

Go

vern

men

t p

rocu

rem

ent

Incr

ease

d t

he

min

imu

m s

up

po

rt p

rice

fo

r m

aize

by

3.5

per

cen

t, t

o IN

R 1

760

per

qu

inta

l (U

SD 2

45.5

per

to

nn

e), a

nd

fo

r so

rgh

um

b

y 5

per

cen

t, t

o IN

R 2

500

per

qu

inta

l (U

SD 3

51.5

per

to

nn

e).

Ma

jor

po

licy

de

velo

pm

en

ts

26 FOOD OUTLOOKNOVEMBER 2019

CO

UN

TRY

DA

TEC

OM

MO

DIT

YPO

LIC

Y IN

STR

UM

ENT

DES

CR

IPTI

ON

Jul-

19G

rain

sG

ove

rnm

ent

sup

po

rt

Rel

ease

d t

he

Un

ion

Bu

dg

et f

or

2019

–20,

allo

cati

ng

INR

1 3

04 b

illio

n (

USD

18.2

bill

ion

) to

th

e ag

ricu

ltu

re s

ecto

r. Th

e U

nio

n

Bu

dg

et in

clu

des

an

inve

stm

ent

of

INR

750

bill

ion

(U

SD 1

0.5

bill

ion

) fo

r th

e in

com

e su

pp

ort

sch

eme

(PM

-KIS

AN

); IN

R 3

5 b

illio

n

(USD

488

mill

ion

) fo

r fa

rm p

rod

uct

ivit

y; a

nd

INR

8 b

illio

n (

USD

111

.6 m

illio

n)

for

agri

cult

ure

-rel

ated

infr

astr

uct

ure

. In

ad

dit

ion

, fe

rtili

zer

sub

sid

y al

loca

tio

ns

wer

e in

crea

sed

by

INR

100

bill

ion

(U

SD 1

.4 b

illio

n)

to a

bo

ut

INR

800

bill

ion

(U

SD 1

1.2

bill

ion

).

Jul-

19M

aize

Imp

ort

du

tyLo

wer

ed t

he

imp

ort

du

ty o

n a

n a

dd

itio

nal

400

000

to

nn

es o

f fe

ed g

rad

e m

aize

to

15

per

cen

t, t

o s

tab

ilize

po

ult

ry f

eed

pri

ces.

Jul-

19G

rain

sG

ove

rnm

ent

sup

po

rt

Intr

od

uce

d a

n in

tere

st s

ub

ven

tio

n s

chem

e ap

plic

able

fo

r sh

ort

-ter

m c

rop

loan

s o

f u

p t

o IN

R 3

00 0

00 (

USD

4 1

84).

Th

e n

orm

al

inte

rest

rat

e av

aila

ble

to

far

mer

s is

7 p

erce

nt

per

an

nu

m. U

nd

er t

he

sch

eme,

th

e G

ove

rnm

ent

will

su

bsi

diz

e in

tere

st a

t th

e le

vel

of

2 p

erce

nt

per

an

nu

m o

n t

he

rest

ruct

ure

d lo

an a

mo

un

t, t

o m

itig

ate

the

effe

cts

of

nat

ura

l dis

aste

rs (

up

to

a m

axim

um

of

5 ye

ars)

. An

ad

dit

ion

al 3

per

cen

t w

ill b

e o

ffer

ed t

o in

cen

tivi

ze p

rom

pt

rep

aym

ent

by

farm

ers,

th

ereb

y re

du

cin

g t

he

effe

ctiv

e in

tere

st r

ate

to 4

per

cen

t.

Oct

-19

Wh

eat

Pro

cure

men

t p

rice

Incr

ease

d t

he

min

imu

m s

up

po

rt p

rice

of

wh

eat

by

INR

85

to 1

925

per

qu

inta

l (b

y U

SD 1

2 to

271

.8 p

er t

on

ne)

.

Ital

yJu

l-19

Wh

eat

Pro

du

ctio

n s

up

po

rtTh

e It

alia

n e

xpo

rt c

red

it a

gen

cy S

AC

E, t

og

eth

er w

ith

th

e C

assa

Dep

osi

ti e

Pre

stit

i, h

as a

nn

ou

nce

d a

n in

vest

men

t o

f EU

R 3

5 m

illio

n in

Ital

ian

wh

eat

firm

th

e C

asill

o G

rou

p. T

he

inve

stm

ent

aim

s to

su

pp

ort

tec

hn

olo

gic

al r

enew

al a

nd

str

eng

then

th

e g

rou

p’s

pro

du

ctio

n c

apac

ity

in t

he

agri

foo

d s

ecto

r, as

wel

l as

to s

up

po

rt e

xpo

rts

on

inte

rnat

ion

al m

arke

ts.

Iraq

Oct

-19

Wh

eat

Pro

du

ctio

n s

up

po

rtA

pp

rove

d a

lloca

tio

n o

f 2.

25 m

illio

n h

a o

f ag

ricu

ltu

ral l

and

fo

r w

hea

t p

lan

tin

g in

th

e 20

19–2

0 se

aso

n, 5

00 0

00 h

a m

ore

th

an t

he

pre

vio

us

seas

on

.

Jap

an

Au

g-1

9M

aize

an

d

sorg

hu

mG

ove

rnm

ent

mar

ket

inte

rven

tio

n

In r

esp

on

se t

o t

he

Fall

Arm

ywo

rm o

utb

reak

, th

e G

ove

rnm

ent

ann

ou

nce

d a

su

pp

ort

pay

men

t o

f JP

Y 5

000

(U

SD 4

6.8)

per

to

nn

e if

far

mer

s p

urc

has

e fe

ed o

ther

th

an m

aize

. It

also

pro

vid

ed fi

nan

cial

su

pp

ort

fo

r st

ora

ge

cost

s fo

r im

po

rted

fee

d, a

nd

es

tab

lish

ed a

list

of

per

mit

ted

pes

tici

des

to

use

on

mai

ze a

nd

so

rgh

um

cro

ps.

Sep

-19

Mai

ze a

nd

wh

eat

Trad

e ag

reem

ent

Sig

ned

a t

rad

e ag

reem

ent

wit

h t

he

US

on

ag

ricu

ltu

ral p

rod

uct

s an

d d

igit

al t

rad

e. T

he

agre

emen

t w

ill lo

wer

or

elim

inat

e ta

riff

s o

n s

ever

al U

S ag

ricu

ltu

ral p

rod

uct

s, in

clu

din

g s

wee

t m

aize

. Fo

r so

me

com

mo

dit

ies,

incl

ud

ing

US

wh

eat

and

mai

ze s

tarc

h,

pre

fere

nti

al m

arke

t ac

cess

will

be

pro

vid

ed t

hro

ug

h t

he

crea

tio

n o

f co

un

try-

sp

ecifi

c ta

riff

qu

ota

s.

Oct

-19

Mai

ze a

nd

wh

eat

Trad

e ag

reem

ent

Sig

ned

th

e U

S-Ja

pan

Tra

de

Ag

reem

ent

and

US-

Jap

an D

igit

al T

rad

e A

gre

emen

t. T

he

agre

emen

ts p

rovi

ded

fo

r a

du

ty-f

ree

cou

ntr

y-sp

ecifi

c ta

riff

qu

ota

of

150

000

for

US

wh

eat

imp

ort

s o

ver

a 9-

year

per

iod

. Th

e m

inim

um

sel

ling

pri

ce r

ang

es b

etw

een

JP

Y 8

.5 a

nd

9.4

per

kg

– b

etw

een

USD

78.

3 an

d U

SD 8

6.6

per

to

nn

e (r

edu

ced

by

45 p

erce

nt

for

two

cat

ego

ries

of

wh

eat

pro

du

cts)

. Sim

ilarl

y, it

pro

vid

ed f

or

a co

un

try-

spec

ific

tari

ff r

ate

qu

ota

of

3 25

0 fo

r U

S m

aize

sta

rch

imp

ort

s o

ver

a 6-

year

per

iod

.

Kaz

akh

stan

Sep

-19

Wh

eat

Pro

cure

men

t p

rice

An

no

un

ced

pro

cure

men

t p

rice

s fo

r 20

19 g

rain

s. T

he

pri

ce f

or

wh

eat

3rd

gra

de

no

w r

ang

es f

rom

KZT

70

000

(USD

179

) to

KZT

76

000

(U

SD 1

94)

per

to

nn

e, a

gai

nst

KZT

54

000

(USD

138

) to

KZT

54

300

(USD

139

) in

th

e p

ast

seas

on

, set

in N

ove

mb

er 2

018.

Pr

ices

fo

r w

hea

t 4t

h g

rad

e va

ry f

rom

KZT

62

000

(USD

158

) to

KZT

65

000

(USD

166

) p

er t

on

ne.

All

pri

ces

are

incl

usi

ve o

f V

AT.

Ken

yaM

ay-1

9M

aize

Sto

cks

rele

ase

Rel

ease

d 3

mill

ion

mai

ze b

ags

fro

m t

he

stra

teg

ic r

eser

ves

in o

rder

to

eas

e th

e g

rain

s sh

ort

age

affe

ctin

g t

he

cou

ntr

y an

d c

urb

ri

sin

g fl

ou

r p

rice

s. M

iller

s ar

e n

ow

pay

ing

KES

3 0

00 f

or

a 90

kg

bag

(U

SD 3

21.4

per

to

nn

e) o

f m

aize

, do

wn

fro

m K

ES 3

400

(U

SD

364.

2 p

er t

on

ne)

last

mo

nth

, wit

h p

rice

s ex

pec

ted

to

fal

l fu

rth

er a

s fa

rmer

s re

leas

e th

e st

ock

s th

ey h

ave

bee

n h

oar

din

g t

o t

he

mar

ket.

Ken

yaJu

l-19

Wh

eat

Pro

du

ctio

n s

up

po

rtPr

ovi

ded

pes

tici

des

wit

h a

to

tal v

alu

e o

f K

ES 2

00 m

illio

n (

USD

1.9

mill

ion

) to

co

mb

at q

uel

a b

ird

s, w

hic

h d

estr

oy

tho

usa

nd

s o

f h

ecta

res

of

wh

eat

in N

aro

k C

ou

nty

du

rin

g h

arve

st-t

ime.

Jul-

19M

aize

Imp

ort

du

tyO

pen

ed a

win

do

w f

or

du

ty-f

ree

imp

ort

of

12.5

mill

ion

bag

s o

f m

aize

sta

rtin

g a

t th

e en

d o

f Ju

ly 2

019,

to

ad

dre

ss a

sh

ort

fall

in

mai

ze. T

he

imp

ort

s w

ere

exp

ecte

d t

o la

st u

nti

l en

d o

f O

cto

ber

201

9.

27FOOD OUTLOOKNOVEMBER 2019

Gra

ins

CO

UN

TRY

DA

TEC

OM

MO

DIT

YPO

LIC

Y IN

STR

UM

ENT

DES

CR

IPTI

ON

Mal

awi

Au

g-1

9M

aize

Pro

cure

men

t p

rice

Incr

ease

d p

rocu

rem

ent

pri

ce o

f m

aize

fro

m M

WK

150

to

MW

K 1

80 p

er k

g (

USD

200

to

USD

250

per

to

nn

e), i

n o

rder

to

en

sure

ad

equ

ate

sto

cks

for

nat

ion

al f

oo

d s

ecu

rity

.

Mex

ico

Oct

-19

Mai

zeG

ove

rnm

ent

mar

ket

inte

rven

tio

n

An

no

un

ced

th

e st

art

of

pu

rch

ase

of

mai

ze a

t th

e m

inim

um

su

pp

ort

pri

ce o

f M

XN

5 6

10 (

USD

278

) p

er t

on

ne,

wit

h a

lim

it

of

20 t

on

nes

fo

r ea

ch p

urc

has

e. M

aize

pu

rch

ases

will

on

ly b

e m

ade

fro

m f

arm

ers

wit

h 5

ha

or

less

cu

ltiv

ated

un

der

rai

nfe

d

con

dit

ion

s.

Mo

rocc

o

May

-19

Wh

eat

Imp

ort

du

tyR

ein

tro

du

ced

imp

ort

du

ty o

n c

om

mo

n w

hea

t at

135

per

cen

t af

ter

a su

spen

sio

n f

rom

Jan

uar

y to

Ap

ril 2

019.

Eff

ecti

ve u

nti

l 1

Sep

tem

ber

201

9.

May

-19

Wh

eat

Go

vern

men

t m

arke

t in

terv

enti

on

Imp

lem

ente

d a

nu

mb

er o

f m

easu

res

to h

elp

wh

eat

farm

ers

mar

ket

thei

r h

arve

st f

or

the

2018

–19

cro

p y

ear.

The

mea

sure

s in

clu

de:

mai

nte

nan

ce o

f re

fere

nce

pri

ce f

or

loca

l co

mm

on

wh

eat

at M

AD

2 8

00 (

USD

291

) p

er t

on

ne,

pro

visi

on

of

a b

iwee

kly

sto

rag

e p

rem

ium

of

MA

D 2

0 (U

SD 2

.1)

per

to

nn

e, a

nd

pro

visi

on

of

a su

bsi

dy

to m

iller

s an

d c

olle

cto

rs f

or

the

qu

anti

ties

of

do

mes

tic

com

mo

n w

hea

t at

MA

D 5

0 (U

SD 5

) p

er t

on

ne.

Th

ese

mea

sure

s w

ere

effe

ctiv

e fr

om

1 J

un

e to

31

Au

gu

st 2

019.

Sep

-19

Wh

eat

Imp

ort

du

tyA

nn

ou

nce

d a

cu

t in

th

e cu

sto

ms

du

ty o

n s

oft

wh

eat

fro

m 1

35 p

erce

nt

to 3

5 p

erce

nt,

eff

ecti

ve f

rom

1 O

cto

ber

201

9.

Nig

eria

Sep

-19

Wh

eat

Pro

du

ctio

n s

up

po

rtR

elea

sed

a h

igh

-yie

ldin

g w

hea

t va

riet

y to

far

mer

s in

ord

er t

o im

pro

ve n

atio

nal

ou

tpu

t o

f th

is c

rop

. Th

e n

ew v

arie

ty c

an e

asily

ad

apt

to ir

rig

ated

co

nd

itio

ns

in t

he

Sud

dan

o-S

ahel

ian

zo

ne

and

has

a p

ote

nti

al y

ield

of

7.1

ton

nes

per

hec

tare

.

Paki

stan

Jul-

19W

hea

tEx

po

rt b

anIm

po

sed

a b

an o

n w

hea

t an

d w

hea

t fl

ou

r ex

po

rts,

am

id r

isin

g c

on

cern

s o

ver

a h

ike

in d

om

esti

c p

rice

s o

f w

hea

t p

rod

uct

s.

Ru

ssia

n

Fed

erat

ion

Jun

-19

Bar

ley

and

wh

eat

Exp

ort

req

uir

emen

tsSi

gn

ed a

pro

toco

l wit

h C

hin

a, s

etti

ng

ph

yto

san

itar

y re

qu

irem

ents

fo

r b

arle

y ex

po

rts

to t

hat

co

un

try.

In a

dd

itio

n, t

he

nu

mb

er o

f re

gio

ns

per

mit

ted

to

exp

ort

wh

eat

to C

hin

a w

as e

xpan

ded

fro

m s

ix t

o s

even

.

Jul-

19W

hea

tEx

po

rt p

olic

yR

enew

ed t

he

exte

nsi

on

of

the

du

ty-f

ree

exp

ort

reg

ime

app

licab

le t

o w

hea

t u

nti

l 1 J

uly

202

1. T

he

exp

ort

du

ty h

ad b

een

su

spen

ded

bet

wee

n S

epte

mb

er 2

016

and

Ju

ne

2019

.

Sau

di A

rab

ia

Au

g-1

9W

hea

tB

ilate

ral a

gre

emen

tSa

ud

i Ara

bia

an

d t

he

Un

ited

Ara

b E

mir

ates

an

no

un

ced

a jo

int

foo

d a

id p

acka

ge

to S

ud

an t

hat

incl

ud

ed 5

40 0

00 t

on

nes

of

wh

eat

to c

ove

r b

asic

fo

od

nee

ds

for

a th

ree-

mo

nth

per

iod

.

Au

g-1

9W

hea

tIm

po

rt r

equ

irem

ents

The

Sau

di G

rain

s O

rgan

izat

ion

(SA

GO

) re

laxe

d t

he

thre

sho

ld t

o 0

.5 p

erce

nt

un

der

its

zero

-to

lera

nce

po

licy

rela

ted

to

inse

ct

dam

age

of

wh

eat

imp

ort

s. T

he

mea

sure

is e

xpec

ted

to

incr

ease

imp

ort

s fr

om

th

e B

lack

Sea

.

Au

g-1

9W

hea

tIm

po

rt r

equ

irem

ents

An

no

un

ced

th

at it

will

imp

ort

10

per

cen

t o

f th

e co

un

try'

s an

nu

al w

hea

t co

nsu

mp

tio

n r

equ

irem

ents

fro

m S

aud

i-co

ntr

olle

d fi

rms

bas

ed a

bro

ad. T

he

firm

s m

ust

be

reg

iste

red

at

the

Min

istr

y o

f En

viro

nm

ent,

Wat

er a

nd

Ag

ricu

ltu

re.

Sou

th A

fric

a

May

-19

Wh

eat

Imp

ort

du

tyIn

crea

sed

th

e im

po

rt d

uty

on

wh

eat

and

wh

eat

flo

ur

fro

m Z

AR

49.

07 c

ent

per

kg

(U

SD 3

4 p

er t

on

ne)

an

d Z

AR

73.

61 c

ent

per

kg

(U

SD 5

1 p

er t

on

ne)

to

ZA

R 6

7.51

cen

t p

er k

g (

USD

47

per

to

nn

e) a

nd

ZA

R 1

01.2

6 ce

nt

per

kg

(U

SD 7

0 p

er t

on

ne)

, res

pec

tive

ly.

This

imp

ort

tar

iff

app

lies

to a

ll co

un

trie

s, e

xcep

t fo

r m

emb

ers

of

the

Sou

ther

n A

fric

an D

evel

op

men

t C

om

mu

nit

y.

Sep

-19

Wh

eat

Imp

ort

du

tyR

edu

ced

th

e im

po

rt d

uty

on

wh

eat

and

wh

eat

flo

ur

fro

m Z

AR

95.

8 ce

nt

per

kg

(U

SD 6

4.6

per

to

nn

e) a

nd

ZA

R 1

43.6

9 ce

nt

per

kg

(U

SD 9

6.9

per

to

nn

e) t

o Z

AR

66.

47 c

ent

per

kg

(U

SD 4

4.8

per

to

nn

e) a

nd

ZA

R 9

9.71

cen

t p

er k

g (

USD

67.

2 p

er t

on

ne)

, re

spec

tive

ly.

Ma

jor

po

licy

de

velo

pm

en

ts

28 FOOD OUTLOOKNOVEMBER 2019

CO

UN

TRY

DA

TEC

OM

MO

DIT

YPO

LIC

Y IN

STR

UM

ENT

DES

CR

IPTI

ON

Sou

th A

fric

aO

ct-1

9W

hea

tIm

po

rt d

uty

Incr

ease

d t

he

imp

ort

du

ty o

n w

hea

t an

d w

hea

t fl

ou

r fr

om

ZA

R 6

6.47

cen

t p

er k

g (

USD

44.

8 p

er t

on

ne)

an

d Z

AR

99.

71 c

ent

per

kg

(U

SD 6

7.2

per

to

nn

e) t

o Z

AR

100

.86

cen

t p

er k

g (

USD

69.

34 p

er t

on

ne)

an

d Z

AR

151

.29

cen

t p

er k

g (

USD

104

per

to

nn

e),

resp

ecti

vely

.

Thai

lan

dA

ug

-19

Gra

ins

Pro

du

ctio

n s

up

po

rtA

ssig

ned

a b

ud

get

of

THB

25.

842

bill

ion

(U

SD 8

43.9

mill

ion

) to

su

pp

ort

nea

rly

4.3

mill

ion

fam

ily f

arm

ers

wh

o h

ave

bee

n

affe

cted

by

risi

ng

pro

du

ctio

n c

ost

s an

d a

n a

pp

reci

atio

n o

f th

e d

om

esti

c cu

rren

cy a

gai

nst

th

e U

S d

olla

r si

nce

th

e b

egin

nin

g o

f th

e ye

ar. A

n a

dd

itio

nal

TH

B 1

8.5

bill

ion

(U

SD 6

04.2

mill

ion

) w

as a

ssig

ned

to

su

pp

ort

dro

ug

ht-

affe

cted

far

min

g c

om

mu

nit

ies.

Turk

eyA

ug

-19

Mai

zePr

ocu

rem

ent

pri

ceA

nn

ou

nce

d t

he

2019

Tu

rkis

h G

rain

Bo

ard

mai

ze p

urc

has

e p

rice

of

TRY

1 1

50 (

USD

209

) p

er t

on

ne.

Th

e m

aize

pu

rch

ase

pri

ce in

20

18 w

as T

RY

950

(U

SD 1

73)

per

to

nn

e.

Ukr

ain

e

May

-19

Wh

eat

Go

vern

men

t m

arke

t in

terv

enti

on

Ad

op

ted

new

sta

nd

ard

s fo

r w

hea

t. In

par

ticu

lar,

the

nu

mb

er o

f ca

teg

ori

es f

or

soft

wh

eat

was

red

uce

d t

o f

ou

r fr

om

th

e in

itia

l si

x th

at e

xist

ed in

th

e cu

rren

t st

and

ard

. Th

e n

ew s

tan

dar

d w

as d

ue

to b

e ef

fect

ive

fro

m 1

Au

gu

st 2

019.

May

-19

Wh

eat

Go

vern

men

t m

arke

t in

terv

enti

on

Rev

ised

th

e im

ple

men

tati

on

dat

e fr

om

1 A

ug

ust

to

10

Jun

e 20

19 f

or

the

new

wh

eat

stan

dar

ds,

du

e to

co

nce

rns

fro

m g

rain

in

du

stry

rep

rese

nta

tive

s. T

he

intr

od

uct

ion

was

set

on

e m

on

th a

fter

th

e b

egin

nin

g o

f th

e m

arke

tin

g y

ear

(Ju

ly),

an

d c

ou

ld h

ave

crea

ted

issu

es w

ith

th

e m

on

ito

rin

g o

f w

hea

t d

eliv

ery

to s

ilos

follo

win

g h

arve

st.

Un

ited

Sta

tes

of

Am

eric

a

May

-19

Gra

ins

Imp

ort

tar

iff

Rai

sed

tar

iffs

fro

m 1

0 p

erce

nt

(im

po

sed

in 2

018)

to

25

per

cen

t o

n a

pp

roxi

mat

ely

USD

200

bill

ion

wo

rth

of

imp

ort

s fr

om

Ch

ina

cove

rin

g 6

000

item

s, in

clu

din

g a

lmo

st 1

000

fo

od

pro

du

cts.

May

-19

Gra

ins

Go

vern

men

t m

arke

t in

terv

enti

on

An

no

un

ced

a U

SD 1

6 b

illio

n a

id p

acka

ge

for

farm

ers

affe

cted

by

tari

ff r

etal

iati

on

. Th

e p

acka

ge

incl

ud

es t

he

Mar

ket

Faci

litat

ion

Pr

og

ram

, wh

ich

aim

s to

pro

vid

e U

SD 1

4.5

bill

ion

in d

irec

t p

aym

ents

to

pro

du

cers

(in

clu

din

g g

rain

pro

du

cers

); a

USD

1.4

bill

ion

Fo

od

Pu

rch

ase

and

Dis

trib

uti

on

Pro

gra

m t

o p

urc

has

e af

fect

ed s

urp

lus

com

mo

dit

ies

for

dis

trib

uti

on

to

fo

od

ban

ks, s

cho

ols

, an

d

ou

tlet

s se

rvin

g lo

w-i

nco

me

ind

ivid

ual

s; a

nd

USD

100

mill

ion

issu

ed t

o t

he

Ag

ricu

ltu

ral T

rad

e Pr

om

oti

on

Pro

gra

m, t

o a

ssis

t in

d

evel

op

ing

new

exp

ort

mar

kets

on

beh

alf

of

pro

du

cers

.

May

-19

Mai

ze a

nd

so

rgh

um

Imp

ort

po

licy

An

no

un

ced

th

e te

rmin

atio

n o

f In

dia

's d

esig

nat

ion

as

a b

enefi

ciar

y d

evel

op

ing

co

un

try

un

der

th

e G

ener

aliz

ed S

yste

m o

f Pr

efer

ence

s. T

his

mea

sure

to

ok

effe

ct a

s o

f 5

Jun

e 20

19, a

nd

aff

ects

sev

eral

pro

du

cts

imp

ort

ed f

rom

Ind

ia, i

ncl

ud

ing

mai

ze a

nd

so

rgh

um

.

Jun

-19

Mai

zePr

od

uct

ion

su

pp

ort

Ad

just

ed t

he

hay

ing

an

d g

razi

ng

dat

e o

n p

reve

nte

d p

lan

t ac

res

fro

m 1

No

vem

ber

to

1 S

epte

mb

er f

or

2019

. Th

e m

easu

re is

d

irec

ted

at

farm

ers

wh

o w

ere

un

able

to

pla

nt

mai

ze a

nd

so

ybea

ns

this

yea

r, d

ue

to w

ides

pre

ad fl

oo

din

g a

cro

ss t

he

US

Mid

wes

t.

Jul-

19G

rain

sG

ove

rnm

ent

sup

po

rtA

nn

ou

nce

d p

aym

ents

un

der

th

e M

arke

t Fa

cilit

atio

n P

rog

ram

to

co

mp

ensa

te f

arm

ers

affe

cted

by

reta

liato

ry t

arif

fs. P

aym

ents

ra

ng

e fr

om

USD

15

to U

SD 1

50 p

er a

cre,

wit

h in

stal

men

ts t

o b

e p

aid

mid

-to

-lat

e A

ug

ust

an

d N

ove

mb

er 2

019

and

Jan

uar

y 20

20.

The

nee

d f

or

furt

her

inst

alm

ents

will

be

asse

ssed

in t

he

ligh

t o

f fu

ture

mar

ket

dev

elo

pm

ents

.

29FOOD OUTLOOKNOVEMBER 2019

Gra

ins

CO

UN

TRY

DA

TEC

OM

MO

DIT

YPO

LIC

Y IN

STR

UM

ENT

DES

CR

IPTI

ON

Un

ited

Sta

tes

of

Am

eric

a

Au

g-1

9M

aize

Go

vern

men

t m

arke

t in

terv

enti

on

No

tifi

ed t

he

Wo

rld

Tra

de

Org

aniz

atio

n o

f m

axim

um

res

idu

e lim

its

for

mef

entr

iflu

con

azo

le o

n c

erta

in c

om

mo

dit

ies,

incl

ud

ing

m

aize

. Th

e re

gu

lati

on

est

ablis

hed

a li

mit

of

0.01

par

ts p

er m

illio

n (

pp

m)

on

mai

ze fi

eld

gra

in a

nd

mai

ze p

op

gra

in, a

nd

a li

mit

o

f 0.

03 p

pm

fo

r m

aize

mill

ed b

y-p

rod

uct

s, a

s w

ell a

s m

aize

sw

eet

kern

el a

nd

co

b w

ith

hu

sks

rem

ove

d (

G/S

PS/N

/USA

/309

4).

Au

g-1

9G

rain

sG

ove

rnm

ent

sup

po

rtIn

tro

du

ced

ad

min

istr

ativ

e fl

exib

ility

to

def

er t

he

accr

ual

of

inte

rest

on

insu

ran

ce p

rem

ium

s fo

r th

e Sp

rin

g 2

019

cro

p y

ear.

The

mea

sure

see

ks t

o e

ase

the

con

seq

uen

ces

of

del

ayed

or

pre

ven

ted

pla

nti

ng

s, a

s w

ell a

s re

du

ced

cro

p y

ield

s ca

use

d b

y se

vere

fl

oo

din

g o

r ex

trem

e d

rou

gh

t co

nd

itio

ns

thro

ug

ho

ut

2019

.

Au

g-1

9G

rain

sG

ove

rnm

ent

sup

po

rtTh

e Fa

mily

Far

mer

Rel

ief

Act

of

2019

was

sig

ned

, am

end

ing

th

e d

ebt

thre

sho

ld u

sed

to

det

erm

ine

farm

ers'

elig

ibili

ty f

or

relie

f u

nd

er e

xist

ing

far

m-s

pec

ific

ban

kru

ptc

y la

ws.

Wit

h f

arm

ers

faci

ng

su

stai

ned

dec

lines

in n

et f

arm

inco

mes

an

d a

n u

np

red

icta

ble

tr

ade

envi

ron

men

t, t

he

deb

t lim

it w

as r

aise

d f

rom

USD

4.4

mill

ion

to

USD

10

mill

ion

.

Vie

t N

amO

ct-1

9W

hea

tEx

po

rt p

olic

yA

sked

th

e R

uss

ian

Fed

erat

ion

to

tem

po

rari

ly s

usp

end

issu

ing

wh

eat

exp

ort

cer

tifi

cate

s, a

fter

fin

din

g im

po

rts

con

tain

ing

th

istl

e se

ed.

Zam

bia

May

-19

Mai

zeEx

po

rt b

anIn

crea

sed

th

e sa

le o

f g

ove

rnm

ent-

pu

rch

ased

mai

ze a

nd

imp

ose

d a

tem

po

rary

ban

on

mai

ze e

xpo

rts,

in a

n e

ffo

rt t

o b

ols

ter

do

mes

tic

avai

lab

ility

an

d e

ase

infl

atio

nar

y p

ress

ure

aft

er p

rice

s o

f m

aize

mea

l, a

stap

le f

oo

d, r

ose

sh

arp

ly in

Ap

ril.

Jul-

19M

aize

Go

vern

men

t p

rocu

rem

ent

Incr

ease

d t

he

pu

rch

asin

g p

rice

of

mai

ze b

y n

earl

y 50

per

cen

t, f

rom

ZM

W 7

5 to

ZM

W 1

10 p

er 5

0 kg

bag

(fr

om

USD

118

.6 t

o U

SD

173.

8 p

er t

on

ne)

, wit

h im

med

iate

eff

ect

and

un

til 3

1 O

cto

ber

201

9.

Au

g-1

9M

aize

Go

vern

men

t m

arke

t in

terv

enti

on

Intr

od

uce

d a

cap

on

mai

ze g

rain

pri

ces

at Z

WK

2 6

00 (

USD

198

) p

er t

on

ne.

Th

e m

easu

re a

ims

to h

alt

the

incr

easi

ng

pri

ces

of

do

mes

tic

mai

ze, w

hic

h r

each

ed r

eco

rd h

igh

s in

Sep

tem

ber

, mai

nly

du

e to

red

uce

d d

om

esti

c su

pp

lies.

Oct

-19

Mai

zePr

ocu

rem

ent

pri

ceA

gre

ed w

ith

gra

in t

rad

ers

to k

eep

th

e d

om

esti

c p

rice

of

mai

ze c

on

stan

t u

nti

l th

e n

ext

har

vest

in J

un

e 20

20. T

he

curr

ent

mai

ze

pri

ce is

set

at

ZMW

4 2

00 (

USD

317

.6 p

er t

on

ne)

.

Jun

-19

Mai

zeG

ove

rnm

ent

mar

ket

inte

rven

tio

nIs

sued

sta

tuto

ry in

stru

men

t N

°. 1

45, w

hic

h p

roh

ibit

s th

e p

urc

has

e an

d s

ale

of

mai

ze a

mo

ng

pri

vate

ind

ivid

ual

s an

d c

om

pan

ies,

le

avin

g t

he

stat

e-o

wn

ed G

rain

Mar

keti

ng

Bo

ard

as

the

on

ly e

nti

ty a

ble

to

acq

uir

e an

d s

ell m

aize

.

Sep

-19

Mai

ze a

nd

wh

eat

Bila

tera

l ag

reem

ent

Sig

ned

dea

ls w

ith

Bel

aru

s w

ort

h U

SD 3

50 m

illio

n in

ord

er t

o e

nh

ance

eco

no

mic

co

op

erat

ion

. Th

e ag

reem

ents

invo

lve

the

con

stru

ctio

n o

f a

po

wer

pla

nt,

an

d t

ran

spo

rt, l

og

isti

cal s

up

po

rt a

nd

dev

elo

pm

ent

for

agri

cult

ura

l pro

ject

s. T

he

latt

er w

ill e

nab

le

the

cou

ntr

y to

gro

w m

aize

, wh

eat

and

so

ybea

ns

for

inte

rnal

co

nsu

mp

tio

n.

Sep

-19

Wh

eat

Go

vern

men

t m

arke

t in

terv

enti

on

Tig

hte

ned

mo

nit

ori

ng

mec

han

ism

s o

n a

wh

eat

sub

sid

y m

ean

t fo

r b

read

, in

ord

er t

o p

reve

nt

its

use

fo

r o

ther

pro

du

cts,

su

ch a

s b

iscu

its,

cak

es a

nd

oth

er c

on

fect

ion

erie

s. T

he

sub

sid

y is

RTG

S 2

300

(USD

85.

3) p

er t

on

ne.

Oct

-19

Gra

ins

Pro

cure

men

t p

rice

Rai

sed

th

e d

om

esti

c p

rice

of

mai

ze a

nd

oth

er g

rain

s, in

clu

din

g s

org

hu

m a

nd

mill

et, f

rom

RTG

S 2

100

to R

TGS

4 00

0 (U

SD 8

1.1

to

USD

154

.9)

per

to

nn

e.

* A

col

lect

ion

of m

ajor

gra

in p

olic

y de

velo

pmen

ts s

tart

ing

in J

uly

2010

is a

vaila

ble

at:

http

://w

ww

.fao

.org

/eco

nom

ic/e

st/e

st-c

omm

oditi

es/c

omm

odity

-pol

icy-

arch

ive/

en/?

grou

pAN

Dco

mm

odity

=gr

ains

Ma

jor

po

licy

de

velo

pm

en

ts

30 FOOD OUTLOOKNOVEMBER 2019

RICE

: M

AJO

R PO

LICY

DEV

ELO

PMEN

TS M

ID-A

PRIL

TO

MID

-OCT

OBE

R 20

19*

Co

un

try

Dat

ePo

licy

Inst

rum

ent

Des

crip

tio

n

Arg

enti

na

Ap

r-19

Co

nsu

mer

pri

ces

An

no

un

ced

th

at it

had

rea

ched

an

ag

reem

ent

wit

h t

he

pri

vate

sec

tor

to k

eep

pri

ces

of

som

e 60

bas

ic n

eces

siti

es, i

ncl

ud

ing

ric

e, s

tead

y fo

r at

leas

t si

x m

on

ths.

Th

e m

easu

re c

om

e in

to e

ffec

t o

n 2

2 A

pri

l 201

9 an

d w

as im

ple

men

ted

wit

hin

th

e fr

amew

ork

of

the

Prec

ios

Cu

idad

os

sch

eme.

Jul-

19Ex

po

rt t

axes

Low

ered

th

e ca

p o

n e

xpo

rt t

axes

on

ric

e to

AR

S 3

for

ever

y U

S d

olla

r o

f va

lue,

or

of

the

offi

cial

fre

e-o

n-b

oar

d (

FOB

) p

rice

. Th

is c

om

par

es

wit

h a

pre

vio

usl

y ap

plic

able

cei

ling

of

AR

S 4

for

ever

y U

S d

olla

r o

f va

lue.

Th

e m

easu

re b

ecam

e ef

fect

ive

on

10

July

201

9.

Au

g-1

9Ta

x p

olic

yR

emo

ved

val

ue

add

ed t

ax (

VA

T) o

n r

ice

and

oth

er b

asic

fo

od

stu

ffs,

eff

ecti

ve f

rom

16

Au

gu

st u

nti

l 31

Dec

emb

er 2

019.

Ban

gla

des

h

May

-19

Imp

ort

tar

iff

Rai

sed

imp

ort

tar

iffs

on

ric

e (h

usk

ed, s

emi/w

ho

lly m

illed

an

d b

roke

n)

fro

m 2

8 p

erce

nt

to 5

5 p

erce

nt.

Th

e re

vise

d r

ate

con

sist

s o

f a

25

per

cen

t cu

sto

ms

du

ty, a

25

per

cen

t re

gu

lato

ry d

uty

, an

d a

5 p

erce

nt

adva

nce

inco

me

tax.

May

-19

Exp

ort

ban

Issu

ed s

tate

men

ts t

o t

he

pre

ss in

dic

atin

g a

dec

isio

n t

o a

llow

up

to

1.5

mill

ion

to

nn

es o

f ri

ce e

xpo

rts,

res

cin

din

g t

he

ban

on

no

n-a

rom

atic

ex

po

rts

that

had

bee

n in

pla

ce s

ince

May

200

8. F

urt

her

mo

re, t

o e

nco

ura

ge

sale

s ab

road

an

d m

itig

ate

falls

in p

add

y p

rice

s, it

wo

uld

co

nsi

der

ex

ten

din

g a

20–

30 p

erce

nt

ince

nti

ve f

or

rice

exp

ort

s.

Jun

-19

Go

vern

men

t p

rocu

rem

ent

Dec

ided

to

pu

rch

ase

an a

dd

itio

nal

250

000

to

nn

es o

f p

add

y fr

om

th

e 20

19 B

oro

har

vest

dir

ectl

y fr

om

far

mer

s, in

a b

id t

o h

elp

pro

du

cers

co

pe

wit

h d

eclin

es in

loca

l pri

ces.

Th

e m

ove

rai

sed

th

e ta

rget

of

volu

mes

to

be

pro

cure

d u

nd

er t

he

2019

Bo

ro d

rive

to

a t

ota

l of

400

000

ton

nes

of

pad

dy

and

1.1

5 m

illio

n t

on

nes

of

rice

.

Jun

-19

Exp

ort

du

tyA

nn

ou

nce

d t

hat

it w

ou

ld r

aise

th

e ex

po

rt d

uty

on

ric

e b

ran

fro

m 1

0 p

erce

nt

to 2

5 p

erce

nt,

as

par

t o

f it

s 20

19/2

0 b

ud

get

ary

allo

cati

on

s.

Jun

-19

Pro

du

ctio

n s

up

po

rt,

cro

p in

sura

nce

An

no

un

ced

th

at it

wo

uld

giv

e p

rio

rity

to

res

earc

h o

n fl

oo

d, d

rou

gh

t, s

alin

ity

and

tem

per

atu

re r

esis

tan

t va

riet

ies,

in a

dd

itio

n t

o s

tep

pin

g

up

inte

rven

tio

ns

to e

nco

ura

ge

cro

p d

iver

sifi

cati

on

, org

anic

pes

t m

anag

emen

t an

d f

arm

mec

han

izat

ion

. Th

e an

no

un

cem

ents

fo

rm p

art

of

the

Go

vern

men

t’s

2019

/20

bu

dg

etar

y al

loca

tio

ns,

wh

ich

als

o f

ore

see

mai

nta

inin

g lo

cal p

rice

s o

f ch

emic

al f

erti

lizer

s u

nch

ang

ed d

uri

ng

th

e 20

19/2

0 (J

uly

-Ju

ne)

fisc

al y

ear,

the

intr

od

uct

ion

of

a p

ilot

cro

p in

sura

nce

sch

eme

agai

nst

nat

ura

l dis

aste

rs, V

AT

exem

pti

on

s o

n a

gri

cult

ura

l m

ach

iner

y, a

nd

th

e p

rovi

sio

n o

f su

bsi

die

s to

pro

du

cers

to

co

ver

the

cost

s o

f fa

rm m

ach

iner

y.

Ben

inO

ct-1

9R

e-ex

po

rt r

estr

icti

on

sIs

sued

a c

ircu

lar

inst

ruct

ing

cu

sto

ms

bro

kers

an

d o

ther

op

erat

ors

to

ref

rain

fro

m is

suin

g t

ran

sit

or

re-e

xpo

rt d

ecla

rati

on

s fo

r p

arb

oile

d r

ice

des

tin

ed f

or

Nig

eria

.

Bra

zil

Jul-

19M

inim

um

su

pp

ort

p

rice

s

Set

Min

imu

m S

up

po

rt P

rice

s (M

SPs)

fo

r th

e 20

20/2

1 se

aso

n (

2019

/20

seas

on

fo

r B

razi

l), e

ffec

tive

fro

m F

ebru

ary

2020

to

Jan

uar

y 20

21. T

he

MSP

fo

r fi

ne

lon

g g

rain

pad

dy

was

rai

sed

by

8.75

per

cen

t to

BR

L 79

3 (U

SD 1

93)

per

to

nn

e fo

r th

e So

uth

Reg

ion

(ex

cep

t Pa

ran

á), a

nd

by

10.0

4 p

erce

nt

to B

RL

793

(USD

193

) p

er t

on

ne

for

all o

ther

reg

ion

s. N

o M

SP w

as s

pec

ified

fo

r lo

ng

gra

in p

add

y.

Cam

bo

dia

Ap

r-19

Pref

eren

tial

tra

de

arra

ng

emen

t,

safe

gu

ard

mea

sure

s

File

d a

ch

alle

ng

e b

efo

re t

he

Co

urt

of

Just

ice

of

the

Euro

pea

n U

nio

n r

equ

esti

ng

th

e re

pea

l of

Co

mm

issi

on

Imp

lem

enti

ng

Reg

ula

tio

n

(EU

) 20

19/6

7, t

hro

ug

h w

hic

h t

he

Euro

pea

n U

nio

n im

po

sed

saf

egu

ard

du

ties

on

sel

ecte

d c

lass

es o

f se

mi/w

ho

lly m

illed

ric

e im

po

rted

fro

m

Cam

bo

dia

an

d M

yan

mar

.

Ch

adM

ay-1

9Im

po

rt t

arif

fEx

emp

ted

ric

e fr

om

imp

ort

tar

iffs

, pre

vio

usl

y se

t at

5 p

erce

nt,

eff

ecti

ve 1

0 M

ay 2

019.

Th

e m

easu

re, w

hic

h a

lso

su

spen

ds

imp

ort

du

ties

an

d

VA

T fo

r o

ther

bas

ic f

oo

dst

uff

s, a

ims

to c

on

tain

pri

ces

of

bas

ic n

eces

siti

es.

Ch

ina

(Mai

nla

nd

)A

pr-

19Im

po

rt a

gre

emen

tA

cco

rdin

g t

o p

ress

rep

ort

s, o

ffici

als

fro

m Y

un

nan

Pro

vin

ce c

len

ched

a m

emo

ran

du

m o

f u

nd

erst

and

ing

(M

oU

) fo

r a

bar

ter

dea

l th

at w

ill s

ee

100

000

ton

nes

of

rice

ori

gin

ated

in M

yan

mar

sh

ipp

ed t

o C

hin

a o

verl

and

, alo

ng

wit

h o

ther

pro

du

cts,

in e

xch

ang

e fo

r C

hin

ese

mac

hin

ery,

fe

rtili

zers

an

d o

ther

go

od

s.

31FOOD OUTLOOKNOVEMBER 2019

Rice

Co

un

try

Dat

ePo

licy

Inst

rum

ent

Des

crip

tio

n

Ch

ina

(Mai

nla

nd

)

Ap

r-19

Imp

ort

ag

reem

ent

Sig

ned

an

Mo

U, u

nd

er w

hic

h t

he

Ch

ines

e st

ate

trad

ing

en

terp

rise

Ch

ina

Nat

ion

al C

erea

ls, O

ils a

nd

Fo

od

stu

ffs

Co

rpo

rati

on

(C

OFC

O)

wo

uld

im

po

rt 4

00 0

00 t

on

nes

of

rice

ori

gin

ated

in C

amb

od

ia b

etw

een

Au

gu

st 2

019

and

Dec

emb

er 2

020.

Jun

-19

Imp

ort

ag

reem

ent

Sig

ned

an

Mo

U, u

nd

er w

hic

h C

hin

ese

stat

e tr

adin

g e

nte

rpri

se C

OFC

O w

ou

ld im

po

rt 1

00 0

00 t

on

nes

of

rice

ori

gin

ated

in M

yan

mar

, th

rou

gh

m

arit

ime

chan

nel

s. T

he

dea

l fo

llow

s n

ews

of

Ch

ina'

s as

sen

t to

qu

adru

plin

g t

he

ann

ual

qu

ota

of

offi

cial

Ch

ines

e p

urc

has

es o

f ri

ce o

rig

inat

ed

in M

yan

mar

to

400

000

to

nn

es.

Au

g-1

9Fu

ture

s tr

ade

Lau

nch

ed a

fu

ture

s co

ntr

act

for

Jap

on

ica

rice

(ro

un

d-g

rain

, po

lish

ed)

on

th

e D

alia

n C

om

mo

dit

y Ex

chan

ge

(DC

E).

Sep

-19

Imp

ort

qu

ota

Left

th

e ta

riff

-rat

e im

po

rt q

uo

ta f

or

2020

un

chan

ged

at

5.32

mill

ion

to

nn

es.

Ap

r-19

to

O

ct-1

9St

ock

rel

ease

Sold

9.9

mill

ion

to

nn

es o

f p

add

y fr

om

go

vern

men

t re

serv

es t

hro

ug

h 5

6 au

ctio

ns

hel

d b

etw

een

16

Ap

ril 2

019

and

11

Oct

ob

er 2

019,

off

erin

g

a to

tal o

f 48

.3 m

illio

n t

on

nes

of

pad

dy

for

sale

fro

m s

tate

sto

ckp

iles.

Co

lom

bia

Sep

-19

Imp

ort

qu

ota

An

no

un

ced

th

at a

pp

licat

ion

s to

imp

ort

60

000

ton

nes

of

sem

i/wh

olly

mill

ed r

ice

(wh

eth

er p

olis

hed

or

no

t) f

rom

Per

u w

ere

op

ened

on

10

Sep

tem

ber

201

9. V

olu

mes

imp

ort

ed u

nd

er t

he

qu

ota

are

to

be

del

iver

ed b

etw

een

1 S

epte

mb

er 2

019

and

31

Au

gu

st 2

020.

Jul-

19 t

o

Sep

-19

Sup

po

rt p

rice

s,

war

eho

use

rec

eip

ts

pro

gra

mm

e

Dec

ided

to

imp

lem

ent

the

sto

rag

e in

cen

tive

pro

gra

mm

e fo

r 20

19 s

eco

nd

-sem

este

r cr

op

s in

th

e d

epar

tmen

ts o

f A

rau

ca, M

eta,

Cas

anar

e,

Vic

had

a, G

uav

iare

an

d t

he

Para

teb

uen

o m

un

icip

alit

y o

f C

un

din

amar

ca, b

etw

een

1 A

ug

ust

201

9 an

d 3

0 D

ecem

ber

201

9. C

OP

11 b

illio

n (

USD

3.

2 m

illio

n)

wer

e to

be

allo

cate

d f

or

the

pu

rpo

se. T

he

fun

ds

wo

uld

be

des

tin

ed t

o e

xten

d a

CO

P 29

000

(U

SD 8

.4)

mo

nth

ly o

utl

ay t

o c

ove

r th

e co

st o

f st

ori

ng

a t

on

ne

of

pad

dy,

fo

r u

p t

o 1

26 4

36 t

on

nes

of

dry

pad

dy

(or

its

equ

ival

ent)

. Th

e o

utl

ay w

ou

ld b

e g

ran

ted

on

co

nd

itio

n

that

th

ese

sup

plie

s ar

e p

urc

has

ed a

t re

fere

nce

pri

ces

of

CO

P 12

5 00

0–14

0 00

0 p

er 1

25 k

g o

f g

reen

pad

dy

(USD

290

–325

per

to

nn

e). A

Se

pte

mb

er d

ecis

ion

allo

cate

d a

n a

dd

itio

nal

CO

P 9.

5 b

illio

n (

USD

2.8

mill

ion

) to

th

e sc

hem

e, s

o a

s to

incr

ease

vo

lum

es c

ove

red

un

der

th

e p

rog

ram

me

to a

to

tal o

f 23

5 63

1 to

nn

es o

f d

ry p

add

y (o

r it

s eq

uiv

alen

t).

Ecu

ado

rA

pr-

19

Pro

du

ctio

n s

up

po

rt,

sup

po

rt p

rice

s,

go

vern

men

t p

rocu

rem

ent

Res

tore

d fi

xed

pro

du

cer

sup

po

rt p

rice

s fo

r p

add

y, r

esci

nd

ing

th

e p

rice

ban

d in

pla

ce s

ince

Ap

ril 2

018.

Acc

ord

ing

ly, e

ffec

tive

25

Ap

ril 2

019,

p

add

y o

f le

ss t

han

7 m

m in

len

gth

, 20

per

cen

t m

ois

ture

co

nte

nt

and

5 p

erce

nt

imp

uri

ties

wo

uld

fet

ch U

SD 2

9 p

er 2

00 lb

(U

SD 3

20 p

er

ton

ne)

, wh

ile t

he

pro

du

cer

pri

ce f

or

pad

dy

exce

edin

g 7

.1 m

m in

len

gth

, wit

h 2

0 p

erce

nt

mo

istu

re c

on

ten

t an

d 5

per

cen

t im

pu

riti

es, w

as

set

at U

SD 3

1 p

er 2

00 lb

(U

SD 3

42 p

er t

on

ne)

. Mo

reo

ver,

the

Nat

ion

al S

tora

ge

Un

it (

Un

idad

Nac

ion

al d

e A

lmac

enam

ien

to -

UN

A E

P) w

ou

ld

abso

rb t

he

equ

ival

ent

of

2 p

erce

nt

of

nat

ion

al p

rod

uct

ion

, giv

ing

pri

ori

ty in

its

pu

rch

ases

to

sm

allh

old

er p

rod

uce

rs.

Ind

ia

May

-19

Trad

e ag

reem

ent,

ex

po

rt r

estr

icti

on

sD

ecid

ed t

hat

89

454

ton

nes

of

rice

exp

ort

s to

th

e R

epu

blic

of

Mal

div

es, a

lon

g w

ith

oth

er p

rod

uct

s, w

ou

ld b

e ex

emp

ted

fro

m a

ny

exis

tin

g o

r fu

ture

res

tric

tio

n/p

roh

ibit

ion

on

exp

ort

s in

201

9/20

. Th

e m

easu

re c

ame

into

eff

ect

in A

pri

l 201

9.

Jul-

19Su

pp

ort

pri

ces,

g

ove

rnm

ent

pro

cure

men

t

Rai

sed

min

imu

m s

up

po

rt p

rice

s fo

r p

add

y b

y 3.

7 p

erce

nt,

set

tin

g t

hem

at

INR

18

150

(USD

256

) p

er t

on

ne

in t

he

case

of

com

mo

n p

add

y, a

nd

at

INR

18

350

(USD

259

) p

er t

on

ne,

in t

he

case

of

Gra

de

A p

add

y.

Jul-

19Fu

ture

s tr

ade

Lau

nch

ed a

fu

ture

s co

ntr

act

for

1121

Bas

mat

i pad

dy

on

th

e In

dia

n C

om

mo

dit

y Ex

chan

ge

Lim

ited

(IC

EX).

Ken

yaJu

n-1

9Im

po

rt t

arif

fR

enew

ed t

he

exem

pti

on

of

the

Co

mm

on

Ext

ern

al T

arif

f (C

ET)

of

the

East

Afr

ican

Co

mm

un

ity

on

ric

e im

po

rts

un

til 3

0 Ju

ne

2020

. A

cco

rdin

gly

, im

po

rts

of

pad

dy,

hu

sked

, sem

i/wh

olly

mill

ed r

ice

and

bro

ken

ric

e w

ill c

on

tin

ue

to a

ccru

e a

35 p

erce

nt

imp

ort

tar

iff

(or

USD

20

0 p

er t

on

ne,

wh

ich

ever

is h

igh

er),

inst

ead

of

the

75 p

erce

nt

tari

ff (

or

USD

345

per

met

ric

ton

ne)

th

ey w

ou

ld a

ccru

e u

nd

er t

he

CET

.

Nig

erSe

p-1

9R

e-ex

po

rt r

estr

icti

on

sA

cco

rdin

g t

o u

nco

nfi

rmed

pre

ss r

epo

rts,

issu

ed a

cir

cula

r p

roh

ibit

ing

re-

exp

ort

s o

f w

hit

e an

d p

arb

oile

d r

ice

to N

iger

ia, w

ith

imm

edia

te

effe

ct.

Nig

eria

Au

g-1

0 to

O

ct-1

9Im

po

rt r

estr

icti

on

s

Lau

nch

ed E

xerc

ise

Swif

t R

esp

on

se, a

join

t se

curi

ty o

per

atio

n b

etw

een

th

e N

iger

ia C

ust

om

s Se

rvic

e, t

he

Nig

eria

Imm

igra

tio

n S

ervi

ce, t

he

Arm

ed F

orc

es o

f N

iger

ia a

nd

oth

er e

nti

ties

, wh

ich

en

forc

ed a

par

tial

clo

sure

of

bo

rder

s w

ith

Ben

in, s

ucc

essi

vely

ext

end

ed t

o b

ord

ers

wit

h N

iger

. Th

e ai

m o

f th

e o

per

atio

n w

as t

o c

urb

sm

ug

glin

g, e

spec

ially

of

rice

, an

d it

was

to

be

com

ple

men

ted

by

oth

er a

nti

-sm

ug

glin

g

mea

sure

s, t

o b

e d

iscu

ssed

wit

h a

uth

ori

ties

in B

enin

an

d N

iger

. Offi

cial

sta

tem

ents

issu

ed in

Oct

ob

er in

dic

ated

th

at, w

ith

th

e p

arti

al c

losu

re

of

bo

rder

s w

ith

nei

gh

bo

uri

ng

co

un

trie

s, c

ross

-bo

rder

exc

han

ges

of

any

go

od

s re

mai

ned

ban

ned

fo

r an

ind

efin

ite

per

iod

.

Ma

jor

po

licy

de

velo

pm

en

ts

32 FOOD OUTLOOKNOVEMBER 2019

Co

un

try

Dat

ePo

licy

Inst

rum

ent

Des

crip

tio

n

Pan

ama

Jul-

19Pr

od

uct

ion

su

pp

ort

Dec

ided

th

at t

he

PAB

165

(U

SD 1

65)

per

to

nn

e su

bsi

dy

sch

eme

for

rice

pro

du

cers

wo

uld

co

nti

nu

e to

be

imp

lem

ente

d. P

rod

uce

rs w

ou

ld

rece

ive

the

ou

tlay

fo

r cr

op

s h

arve

sted

an

d s

old

bet

wee

n 1

Ju

ly 2

019

and

20

Jun

e 20

20.

Peru

Jun

-19

Imp

ort

tar

iff

Dec

reed

th

at t

he

ceili

ng

ap

plie

d o

n a

dd

itio

nal

du

ties

levi

ed o

n r

ice

imp

ort

s u

nd

er t

he

pri

ce b

and

mec

han

ism

wo

uld

be

mai

nta

ined

at

20

per

cen

t o

f th

e im

po

rts'

Co

st, I

nsu

ran

ce a

nd

Fre

igh

t (C

IF)

valu

e, in

stea

d o

f b

ein

g lo

wer

ed t

o 1

5 p

erce

nt

of

CIF

val

ue,

as

fore

seen

by

an e

arlie

r d

ecis

ion

. Th

e m

easu

re, w

hic

h a

lso

set

s o

ut

new

cu

sto

ms

tab

les

adju

stin

g t

he

add

itio

nal

du

ties

, will

be

in e

ffec

t u

nti

l 30

Jun

e 20

20, a

fter

w

hic

h t

he

ceili

ng

on

ad

dit

ion

al s

urc

har

ges

will

be

adju

sted

to

15

per

cen

t o

f im

po

rts'

CIF

val

ue.

Jul-

19Ta

x p

olic

yEx

emp

ted

ric

e ex

po

rts

fro

m t

he

4 p

erce

nt

sale

s ta

x o

n p

ou

nd

ed r

ice

(Im

pu

esto

a la

Ven

ta d

e A

rro

z Pi

lad

o -

IVA

P). A

cco

rdin

g t

o t

he

dec

isio

n,

trad

ers

exp

ort

ing

su

pp

lies

falli

ng

un

der

tar

iff

lines

100

6200

000,

100

6300

000,

100

6400

000

and

230

2200

000

wo

uld

be

elig

ible

fo

r a

refu

nd

on

IV

AP

taxe

s, e

ffec

tive

fro

m 1

Au

gu

st 2

019.

The

Phili

pp

ines

Sep

-19

Pro

du

ctio

n s

up

po

rt,

go

vern

men

t p

rocu

rem

ent

Lau

nch

ed t

he

Exp

and

ed S

urv

ival

an

d R

eco

very

Ass

ista

nce

Pro

gra

m f

or

Ric

e Fa

rmer

s (S

UR

E A

id P

rog

ram

), g

ran

tin

g a

on

e-ti

me,

PH

P 15

000

(U

SD 2

91)

inte

rest

-fre

e lo

an, p

ayab

le in

eig

ht

year

s, t

o r

ice

farm

ers

cult

ivat

ing

up

to

1 h

ecta

re (

ha)

. In

ad

dit

ion

to

th

e cr

edit

ass

ista

nce

, th

e p

rog

ram

me

envi

sag

es t

he

Nat

ion

al F

oo

d A

uth

ori

ty p

urc

has

ing

su

pp

lies

fro

m p

arti

cip

atin

g p

rod

uce

rs. T

he

sch

eme

aim

s to

ass

ist

farm

ers

cop

e w

ith

dec

lines

in p

add

y p

rice

s, c

om

ing

on

to

p o

f as

sist

ance

en

visa

ged

un

der

th

e R

ice

Co

mp

etit

iven

ess

Enh

ance

men

t Fu

nd

(R

CEF

) fo

r p

rod

uce

rs a

ffec

ted

by

rice

tar

iffi

cati

on

. A f

un

d o

f PH

P 1.

5 b

illio

n (

USD

29.

1 m

illio

n)

was

init

ially

set

asi

de

to im

ple

men

t th

e sc

hem

e, b

ut

a 12

Se

pte

mb

er d

ecis

ion

ap

pro

ved

an

ad

dit

ion

al P

HP

1 b

illio

n (

USD

19.

4 m

illio

n),

to

en

able

th

e p

rog

ram

me

to c

ove

r so

me

170

000

pro

du

cers

.

Sep

-19

Sto

ck r

elea

seIn

stru

cted

th

e N

atio

nal

Fo

od

Au

tho

rity

(N

FA)

to o

fflo

ad 1

80 0

00 t

on

nes

of

rice

th

at t

he

agen

cy h

eld

in s

tore

on

to t

he

mar

ket

by

10 O

cto

ber

20

19. T

he

sup

plie

s w

ou

ld b

e so

ld a

t a

con

sum

er p

rice

of

PHP

27 (

USD

0.5

2) p

er k

g.

Sep

-19

Go

vern

men

t p

rocu

rem

ent,

p

urc

has

ing

pri

ces

An

no

un

ced

th

at t

he

NFA

wo

uld

rai

se t

he

pri

ce a

t w

hic

h it

pu

rch

ases

loca

lly p

rod

uce

d p

add

y b

y 11

.8 p

erce

nt

to P

HP

19 p

er k

g (

USD

368

p

er t

on

ne)

of

clea

n d

ry p

add

y. A

t th

e sa

me

tim

e, t

he

agen

cy w

ou

ld n

o lo

ng

er o

ffer

PH

P 3.

7 (U

SD 0

.07)

per

kg

wo

rth

of

cash

ince

nti

ves

(co

nsi

stin

g o

f th

e B

uff

er S

tock

s In

cen

tive

, th

e C

oo

per

ativ

e D

evel

op

men

t In

cen

tive

Fu

nd

, dry

ing

an

d d

eliv

ery

ince

nti

ves)

th

at h

ad b

een

pai

d

on

to

p o

f g

ove

rnm

ent

pu

rch

asin

g p

rice

s. T

hu

s, t

he

ove

rall

pri

ce e

ffec

tive

ly p

aid

by

the

NFA

wh

en p

urc

has

ing

pad

dy

fro

m p

rod

uce

rs w

ou

ld

be

low

ered

by

PHP

1.7

per

kg

(U

SD 3

2.9

per

to

nn

e) t

o P

HP

19 p

er k

g (

USD

368

per

to

nn

e).

Oct

-19

Pro

du

ctio

n s

up

po

rt

An

no

un

ced

th

at it

wo

uld

pro

vid

e ri

ce p

rod

uce

rs c

ult

ivat

ing

up

to

1 h

a w

ith

a o

ne-

tim

e d

irec

t ca

sh o

utl

ay o

f PH

P 5

000

(USD

97)

to

hel

p

them

co

pe

wit

h d

eclin

es in

pad

dy

pri

ces.

Th

e ca

sh a

ssis

tan

ce w

ou

ld b

e p

rovi

ded

on

to

p o

f cr

edit

su

pp

ort

ava

ilab

le t

hro

ug

h t

he

Exp

and

ed

Surv

ival

an

d R

eco

very

Ass

ista

nce

Pro

gra

m f

or

Ric

e Fa

rmer

s (S

UR

E A

id P

rog

ram

), a

nd

wo

uld

be

fin

ance

d b

y fu

nd

s ac

cru

ed f

rom

tar

iffs

levi

ed

on

ric

e im

po

rts.

Sep

-19

to

Oct

-19

Safe

gu

ard

mea

sure

s

No

tifi

ed t

he

Wo

rld

Tra

de

Org

aniz

atio

n t

hat

on

11

Sep

tem

ber

201

9 it

beg

an a

pre

limin

ary

safe

gu

ard

inve

stig

atio

n o

n im

po

rts

of

sele

cted

cl

asse

s o

f se

mi/w

ho

lly m

illed

ric

e (t

ho

se f

allin

g u

nd

er t

arif

f lin

es 1

0063

030,

100

6304

0, 1

0063

091

and

100

6309

9). A

cco

rdin

g t

o o

ffici

als,

th

e m

ove

was

mad

e in

lig

ht

of

con

tin

uo

us

incr

ease

s in

ric

e im

po

rts,

an

d p

aral

lel f

alls

in f

arm

gat

e p

rice

s o

f p

add

y, w

ith

rel

ated

inco

me

loss

es

by

farm

ers,

as

wel

l as

an a

bru

pt

shif

t b

y tr

ader

s fr

om

pu

rch

asin

g lo

cally

pro

du

ced

pad

dy

to b

uyi

ng

imp

ort

ed r

ice.

Th

e in

vest

igat

ion

was

ex

pec

ted

to

be

com

ple

ted

by

the

clo

se o

f Se

pte

mb

er o

r ea

rly

Oct

ob

er, w

ith

ad

dit

ion

al o

pti

on

s in

clu

din

g t

he

imp

osi

tio

n o

f st

rin

gen

t sa

nit

ary

and

ph

yto

san

itar

y (S

PS)

and

insp

ecti

on

mea

sure

s. N

on

eth

eles

s, o

ffici

al s

tate

men

ts t

o t

he

pre

ss is

sued

in O

cto

ber

ind

icat

ed t

hat

a d

ecis

ion

on

w

het

her

saf

egu

ard

du

ties

wo

uld

be

imp

ose

d h

ad b

een

def

erre

d.

Rw

and

aJu

n-1

9Im

po

rt t

arif

fD

ecid

ed t

hat

imp

ort

s o

f se

mi/w

ho

lly m

illed

ric

e w

ou

ld c

on

tin

ue

to a

ttra

ct a

45

per

cen

t (o

r U

SD 3

45 p

er t

on

ne,

wh

ich

ever

is h

igh

er)

imp

ort

d

uty

fo

r an

ad

dit

ion

al y

ear,

inst

ead

of

the

75 p

erce

nt

imp

ort

tar

iff

(or

USD

345

per

met

ric

ton

ne)

th

at t

hey

acc

rue

un

der

th

e C

om

mo

n

Exte

rnal

Tar

iff

(CET

) o

f th

e Ea

st A

fric

an C

om

mu

nit

y.

Sri L

anka

May

-19

Pric

e co

ntr

ols

Set

the

max

imu

m r

etai

l pri

ce f

or

wh

ite

Sam

ba

rice

at

LKR

85

(USD

0.4

7) p

er k

g, a

t LK

R 8

0 (U

SD 0

.44)

per

kg

of

wh

ite

Nad

u r

ice,

an

d a

t LK

R

74 (

USD

0.4

1) p

er k

g o

f re

d N

adu

, eff

ecti

ve 3

1 M

ay 2

019.

Au

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9Pr

od

uct

ion

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pp

ort

Ap

pro

ved

a p

ilot

pro

gra

mm

e th

at w

ill s

ee d

ryin

g e

qu

ipm

ent

dis

trib

ute

d w

ith

pre

fere

nti

al t

erm

s to

far

mer

org

aniz

atio

ns

in t

he

Polo

nn

aru

wa

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tric

t.

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ll co

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on

sum

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rice

sA

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ou

nce

d t

hat

, in

a b

id t

o e

ase

the

imp

act

of

a su

rge

in g

luti

no

us

rice

pri

ces

on

co

nsu

mer

s, it

wo

uld

sel

l 2–5

kg

pac

ks o

f g

luti

no

us

rice

th

rou

gh

Th

on

g F

ah P

rach

arat

(B

lue

Flag

) sh

op

s, a

t a

sub

sid

ized

rat

e o

f TH

B 3

5 (U

SD 1

.1)

per

kg

, sta

rtin

g in

Sep

tem

ber

. A n

atio

nw

ide

insp

ecti

on

of

glu

tin

ou

s ri

ce s

tock

s w

ou

ld a

lso

be

lau

nch

ed in

ord

er t

o p

reve

nt

ho

ard

ing

.

Au

g-1

9Pr

od

uct

ion

su

pp

ort

, su

pp

ort

pri

ces

Ap

pro

ved

a b

ud

get

of

THB

21.

5 b

illio

n (

USD

706

mill

ion

) to

imp

lem

ent

the

Ric

e Pr

ice

Gu

aran

tee

Pro

gra

mm

e. U

nd

er t

he

sch

eme,

in t

he

even

t th

at m

arke

t p

rice

s fa

ll b

elo

w g

uar

ante

ed p

rice

s, f

arm

ers

will

rec

eive

th

e d

iffe

ren

ce b

etw

een

th

e tw

o. G

uar

ante

ed p

rice

s w

ere

set

at T

HB

15

000

(USD

492

) p

er t

on

ne

of

Ho

m M

ali p

add

y fo

r a

max

imu

m o

f 14

to

nn

es o

r 40

rai

cu

ltiv

ated

(6.

4 h

a) p

er f

arm

ing

ho

use

ho

ld, a

t TH

B 1

4 00

0 (U

SD 4

60)

per

to

nn

e o

f p

rovi

nci

al f

rag

ran

t p

add

y fo

r u

p t

o 1

6 to

nn

es o

r 40

rai

, at

THB

11

000

(USD

361

) p

er t

on

ne

of

Path

um

Th

ani f

rag

ran

t fo

r u

p t

o 2

5 to

nn

es o

r 40

rai

, at

THB

12

000

(USD

394

) p

er t

on

ne

of

glu

tin

ou

s p

add

y fo

r a

max

imu

m o

f 16

to

nn

es o

r 40

rai

, an

d a

t TH

B 1

0 00

0 (U

SD 3

28)

per

to

nn

e o

f w

hit

e p

add

y fo

r u

p t

o 3

0 to

nn

es o

r 40

rai

cu

ltiv

ated

per

far

min

g h

ou

seh

old

. Th

e p

rog

ram

me

will

b

e ef

fect

ive

for

the

2019

/20

mai

n-c

rop

cyc

le, s

tart

ing

fro

m 1

5 O

cto

ber

201

9, r

epla

cin

g p

revi

ou

s su

pp

ort

sch

emes

th

at s

ou

gh

t to

sta

bili

ze

pad

dy

pri

ces

at h

arve

st-t

ime

by

enco

ura

gin

g f

arm

ers

and

tra

der

s to

del

ay s

ales

. Un

der

a s

epar

ate

pro

gra

mm

e, r

ice

pro

du

cers

will

rec

eive

a

pay

men

t o

f TH

B 5

00 p

er r

ai (

USD

103

per

ha)

fo

r u

p t

o 2

0 ra

i (3.

2 h

a) c

ult

ivat

ed, i

n o

rder

to

hel

p t

hem

co

ver

the

cost

s o

f p

rod

uct

ion

du

rin

g

the

2019

/20

mai

n-c

rop

cyc

le.

May

-19

to

Jul-

19St

ock

rel

ease

Au

ctio

ned

a t

ota

l of

42 2

25 t

on

nes

of

rice

fro

m g

ove

rnm

ent

sto

cks

thro

ug

h t

wo

ten

der

s h

eld

on

10

and

14

May

201

9. O

f th

e to

tal,

13

635

con

stit

ute

d f

oo

d-g

rad

e ri

ce, w

hile

th

e re

mai

nd

er w

as s

uit

able

fo

r fe

ed a

nd

oth

er u

ses.

An

oth

er t

end

er, h

eld

on

25

July

201

9, o

ffer

ed

an a

dd

itio

nal

208

650

to

nn

es o

f ri

ce (

wh

ite,

fra

gra

nt

and

glu

tin

ou

s ri

ce, s

uit

able

fo

r fo

od

an

d n

on

-fo

od

use

s) f

or

sale

fro

m g

ove

rnm

ent

rese

rves

.

Turk

eyM

ay-1

9Im

po

rt t

arif

fH

alve

d t

he

add

itio

nal

imp

ort

du

ty im

po

sed

on

ric

e o

rig

inat

ing

in t

he

Un

ited

Sta

tes

in A

ug

ust

201

8 to

25

per

cen

t, w

ith

imm

edia

te e

ffec

t.

The

mea

sure

bro

ug

ht

tota

l im

po

rt d

uti

es o

n U

S ri

ce t

o 5

9 p

erce

nt

for

pad

dy,

61

per

cen

t fo

r h

usk

ed r

ice,

an

d 7

0 p

erce

nt

for

sem

i/wh

olly

m

illed

an

d b

roke

n r

ice.

Un

ited

Sta

tes

of

Am

eric

a

May

-19

Pro

du

ctio

n s

up

po

rt,

go

vern

men

t p

rocu

rem

ent

An

no

un

ced

a s

eco

nd

su

pp

ort

pro

gra

mm

e fo

r p

rod

uce

rs a

ffec

ted

by

trad

e d

isp

ute

s w

ith

Ch

ina,

set

tin

g a

sid

e U

SD 1

6 b

illio

n f

or

the

pu

rpo

se.

The

init

iati

ve w

ill e

nta

il ex

ten

din

g d

irec

t o

utl

ays

wo

rth

USD

14.

5 b

illio

n t

o p

rod

uce

rs o

f a

ho

st o

f co

mm

od

itie

s, in

clu

din

g r

ice,

in t

hre

e tr

anch

es, u

nd

er t

he

Mar

ket

Faci

litat

ion

Pro

gra

m (

MFP

). T

hes

e p

aym

ents

wo

uld

ran

ge

fro

m U

SD 1

5 to

150

per

acr

e (U

SD 3

7-37

5 p

er h

a), a

nd

w

ou

ld b

e ca

lcu

late

d b

ased

on

co

un

ty-l

evel

per

acr

e p

aym

ent

rate

s an

d t

he

tota

l ext

ensi

on

cu

ltiv

ated

by

pro

du

cers

, irr

esp

ecti

ve o

f w

hic

h

of

the

cove

red

cro

ps

they

eff

ecti

vely

pla

nte

d, f

or

up

to

th

e ex

ten

sio

n c

ult

ivat

ed in

201

8, a

nd

a m

axim

um

of

USD

250

000

per

per

son

or

leg

al e

nti

ty. A

dd

itio

nal

inte

rven

tio

ns

wo

uld

incl

ud

e p

urc

has

es o

f su

rplu

s p

rod

uce

of

sele

cted

co

mm

od

itie

s th

rou

gh

th

e Fo

od

Pu

rch

ase

and

D

istr

ibu

tio

n P

rog

ram

(FP

DP)

, as

wel

l as

USD

100

mill

ion

to

dev

elo

p n

ew e

xpo

rt m

arke

ts t

hro

ug

h t

he

Ag

ricu

ltu

ral T

rad

e Pr

om

oti

on

Pro

gra

m

(ATP

).

May

-19

Pref

eren

tial

tra

de

arra

ng

emen

t, im

po

rt

tari

ff

Rem

ove

d In

dia

fro

m t

he

list

of

ben

efici

ary

dev

elo

pin

g c

ou

ntr

ies

for

pre

fere

nti

al a

cces

s to

th

e U

S m

arke

t, u

nd

er t

he

Gen

eral

ized

Sys

tem

of

Pref

eren

ces

(GSP

), e

ffec

tive

5 J

un

e 20

19. F

or

rice

, th

e m

ove

res

cin

ded

th

e d

uty

-fre

e ac

cess

th

at p

arb

oile

d r

ice

ori

gin

ated

in In

dia

en

joye

d

un

der

th

e p

rog

ram

me,

ren

der

ing

it li

able

to

an

11.

2 p

erce

nt

gen

eral

imp

ort

du

ty.

May

-19

to

Au

g-1

9Im

po

rt t

arif

fIn

crea

sed

th

e ad

dit

ion

al im

po

rt t

arif

f im

po

sed

on

24

Sep

tem

ber

201

8 o

n a

ran

ge

of

imp

ort

ed g

oo

ds

ori

gin

atin

g in

Ch

ina,

incl

ud

ing

hu

sked

, se

mi/w

ho

lly m

illed

an

d b

roke

n r

ice,

fro

m 1

0 p

erce

nt

to 2

5 p

erce

nt,

eff

ecti

ve 1

0 M

ay 2

019.

Tw

o s

ub

seq

uen

t m

ove

s se

t an

ad

dit

ion

al im

po

rt

tari

ff o

f 15

per

cen

t o

n p

add

y o

rig

inat

ed in

Ch

ina,

eff

ecti

ve 1

Sep

tem

ber

201

9.

Uru

gu

ay

Jun

-19

Pro

du

ctio

n s

up

po

rt

An

no

un

ced

th

at it

wo

uld

ext

end

th

e 15

per

cen

t d

isco

un

t o

n e

lect

rici

ty t

arif

fs f

or

rice

pro

cess

ors

un

til t

he

end

of

2019

. Oth

er m

easu

res

un

veile

d t

o s

up

po

rt t

he

sect

or

incl

ud

ed a

men

din

g t

he

con

dit

ion

s an

d c

ove

rag

e o

f cr

edit

gu

aran

tees

ava

ilab

le f

or

rice

pro

du

cers

th

rou

gh

th

e N

atio

nal

Gu

aran

tee

Syst

em (

SIG

a), t

he

Ban

co R

epú

blic

a (B

RO

U)

wo

uld

refi

nan

ce lo

ans,

wh

ile it

als

o p

rop

ose

d s

et u

p a

wo

rkin

g g

rou

p t

o

anal

yse

the

esta

blis

hm

ent

of

a n

ew t

rust

fu

nd

fo

r th

e ri

ce s

ecto

r.

Jun

-19

Pro

du

ctio

n s

up

po

rtEx

ten

ded

th

e 15

per

cen

t d

isco

un

t o

n e

lect

rici

ty t

arif

fs f

or

rice

pro

du

cers

an

d f

or

irri

gat

ion

use

d in

pro

du

ctiv

e ac

tivi

ties

un

til M

arch

202

0.

Ven

ezu

ela

May

-19

Sup

po

rt p

rice

s, p

rice

co

ntr

ols

Set

the

pro

du

cer

pri

ce c

eilin

g f

or

wet

pad

dy

har

vest

ed b

etw

een

Ap

ril 2

019

and

Sep

tem

ber

201

9 at

VES

1 7

94 p

er k

g.

Ma

jor

po

licy

de

velo

pm

en

ts

34 FOOD OUTLOOKNOVEMBER 2019

OIL

CRO

PS:

MA

JOR

POLI

CY D

EVEL

OPM

ENTS

MID

-APR

IL T

O M

ID-O

CTO

BER

2019

*

CO

UN

TRY

DA

TEPO

LIC

Y D

OM

AIN

PRO

DU

CT

DES

CR

IPTI

ON

Afr

ica,

sel

ecte

d c

ou

ntr

ies

(Cô

te d

'Ivo

ire,

Gh

ana,

Li

ber

ia, S

ierr

a Le

on

e)M

ar-1

9Se

cto

r d

evel

op

men

t/

pro

du

ctio

n s

ust

ain

abili

ty

sup

po

rtO

il p

alm

te d

'Ivo

ire,

Gh

ana,

Lib

eria

an

d S

ierr

a Le

on

e jo

ined

fo

rces

to

imp

lem

ent

the

Sust

ain

able

Wes

t A

fric

a Pa

lm O

il Pr

og

ram

me

(SW

APP

) in

su

pp

ort

of

soci

ally

res

po

nsi

ble

an

d e

nvi

ron

men

tally

su

stai

nab

le o

il-p

alm

ex

pan

sio

n. F

ocu

sin

g o

n s

ust

ain

able

gro

wth

acr

oss

th

e p

alm

oil

valu

e ch

ain

, th

e p

rog

ram

me

is a

imed

at

imp

rovi

ng

th

e liv

elih

oo

ds

of

smal

lho

lder

far

mer

s.

Arg

enti

na

Ap

r-19

Exp

ort

po

licy

Soyo

il, s

un

flo

wer

oil

Sup

po

rted

eff

ort

s b

y th

e o

ilsee

d p

roce

ssin

g in

du

stry

to

rai

se s

ales

of

Arg

enti

ne

soy

and

su

nfl

ow

er s

eed

oil

to

Ind

ia.

Ap

r-19

Mar

ket

reg

ula

tio

nSe

lect

ed v

eget

able

oils

Fro

ze t

he

reta

il p

rice

s o

f se

lect

ed f

oo

d it

ems

– in

clu

din

g c

oo

kin

g o

ils –

fo

r a

six-

mo

nth

per

iod

, wit

h a

vie

w t

o

curb

ing

do

mes

tic

foo

d p

rice

infl

atio

n.

May

-19

Imp

ort

po

licy

Soyb

ean

sEx

emp

ted

so

ybea

ns

imp

ort

ed f

or

sub

seq

uen

t re

-exp

ort

(in

th

e fo

rm o

f so

yoil

and

mea

l) f

rom

a r

ecen

tly

imp

lem

ente

d in

crea

se in

th

e co

un

try’

s ‘s

tati

stic

s d

uty

’.

Jun

-19

Farm

er r

elie

f m

easu

res

Gra

ins,

oils

eed

sA

nn

ou

nce

d s

up

po

rt m

easu

res

for

gra

in p

rod

uce

rs in

th

e co

un

try’

s C

hac

o p

rovi

nce

wh

o w

ere

affe

cted

by

flo

od

s in

th

e 20

18/1

9 se

aso

n.

Oct

-19

Exp

ort

po

licy

Gra

ins,

oils

eed

sR

edu

ced

th

e ti

me

span

gra

nte

d t

o t

rad

ers

for

pay

ing

exp

ort

tax

es a

nd

det

erm

ined

th

at e

xpo

rter

s w

ill h

ave

to p

ay e

xpo

rt d

ues

sh

ort

ly a

fter

th

e d

ate

of

sale

, rat

her

th

an o

n t

he

dat

e o

f sh

ipm

ent.

Oct

-19

Bio

fuel

po

licy

Bio

die

sel

Rai

sed

th

e m

inim

um

pri

ce t

hat

oil

refi

nin

g c

om

pan

ies

are

req

uir

ed t

o p

ay f

or

bio

die

sel b

y a

furt

her

6

per

cen

t (f

ollo

win

g t

wo

pri

or

incr

ease

s im

ple

men

ted

in la

te 2

018)

.

Au

stra

lia

Au

g-1

9G

MO

po

licy

Rap

esee

dA

uth

ori

zed

, in

th

e st

ate

of

Sou

th A

ust

ralia

, th

e cu

ltiv

atio

n o

f g

enet

ical

ly m

od

ified

(G

M)

foo

d c

rop

s,

incl

ud

ing

GM

rap

esee

d v

arie

ties

.

Au

g-1

9H

ealt

h p

olic

yV

eget

able

oils

Co

nsi

der

ed r

evis

ing

th

e ra

nki

ng

of

ind

ivid

ual

veg

etab

le o

ils u

nd

er t

he

cou

ntr

y’s

rati

ng

sys

tem

fo

r p

acka

ged

fo

od

s, w

ith

a v

iew

to

ass

ign

ing

a t

op

sco

re t

o o

live

oil

– b

ased

on

th

e o

il’s

pro

ven

hea

lth

ben

efits

.

Sep

-19

Farm

er r

elie

f m

easu

res

Ara

ble

cro

ps

Set

asid

e fu

nd

s to

ass

ist

farm

ers

affe

cted

by

extr

eme

wea

ther

co

nd

itio

ns,

co

nce

rned

th

at e

xces

sive

dry

nes

s co

uld

th

reat

en b

usi

nes

s fo

r a

larg

e n

um

ber

of

gro

wer

s.

Sep

-19

Farm

er r

elie

f m

easu

res

Farm

pro

du

cts

An

no

un

ced

an

aid

pac

kag

e fo

r fa

rmer

s an

d c

om

mu

nit

ies

affe

cted

by

seve

re d

rou

gh

t. T

he

assi

stan

ce a

lso

in

clu

des

pay

men

ts f

or

wat

er in

fras

tru

ctu

re u

pg

rad

es a

nd

rel

ated

pro

ject

s, a

s w

ell a

s m

easu

res

to s

imp

lify

and

ext

end

th

e G

ove

rnm

ent’

s Fa

rm H

ou

seh

old

Allo

wan

ce p

rog

ram

me.

Bo

livia

(Pl

uri

nat

ion

al

Stat

e o

f)Ju

n-1

9Ex

po

rt p

olic

y/G

MO

po

licy

Soyb

ean

sD

ecid

ed –

wit

h a

vie

w t

o r

aisi

ng

th

e ex

po

rt c

om

pet

iven

ess

of

the

cou

ntr

y’s

soyb

ean

ind

ust

ry –

to

i) d

eres

tric

t u

p t

o 6

0 p

erce

nt

(or

1.6

mill

ion

to

nn

es p

er y

ear)

of

the

cou

ntr

y’s

soyb

ean

exp

ort

s, a

nd

ii)

auth

ori

ze t

he

cult

ivat

ion

of

two

new

gen

etic

ally

en

gin

eere

d s

oyb

ean

eve

nts

.

Bra

zil

Ap

r-19

Bio

fuel

po

licy

Bio

die

sel

Post

po

ned

th

e ri

se in

man

dat

ory

ble

nd

ing

of

reg

ula

r tr

ansp

ort

die

sel w

ith

bio

die

sel t

hat

was

ori

gin

ally

sc

hed

ule

d f

or

Jun

e 20

19.

Ap

r-19

Tran

spo

rt p

olic

yG

rain

s, o

ilsee

ds

Rai

sed

th

e g

ove

rnm

ent-

set

min

imu

m t

ruck

fre

igh

t ra

tes

by

4.1

per

cen

t to

co

mp

ensa

te d

rive

rs f

or

incr

ease

s in

th

e p

rice

of

tran

spo

rt d

iese

l.

35FOOD OUTLOOKNOVEMBER 2019

Oilcro

ps

CO

UN

TRY

DA

TEPO

LIC

Y D

OM

AIN

PRO

DU

CT

DES

CR

IPTI

ON

Bra

zil

May

-19

Ag

ricu

ltu

ral p

olic

yA

ll cr

op

s, li

vest

ock

pro

du

cts

Pres

ente

d t

he

agri

cult

ura

l su

pp

ort

pro

gra

mm

e fo

r th

e 20

19/2

0 se

aso

n, h

igh

ligh

tin

g t

hat

par

ticu

lar

atte

nti

on

wo

uld

be

pai

d t

o t

he

nee

ds

of

smal

l- a

nd

med

ium

-siz

ed f

arm

s an

d t

o t

he

follo

win

g a

reas

: cro

p

insu

ran

ce, l

ow

-car

bo

n a

gri

cult

ure

, tec

hn

ical

inn

ova

tio

n, i

rrig

atio

n, s

oil

imp

rove

men

t, n

ew c

red

it t

oo

ls,

fore

st p

rote

ctio

n, a

nd

dai

ry, p

ork

an

d p

ou

ltry

pro

du

ctio

n. I

nfo

rmed

th

at a

ll m

ajo

r cr

edit

pro

gra

mm

es w

ou

ld

be

exp

and

ed, a

lth

ou

gh

th

e in

tere

st r

ates

fo

r la

rger

pro

du

cers

wo

uld

be

rais

ed. W

hile

to

tal g

ove

rnm

ent

ou

tlay

s fo

r in

tere

st r

ate

sub

sid

ies

wo

uld

be

on

ly m

arg

inal

ly h

igh

er t

han

last

sea

son

, far

mer

s w

ou

ld b

enefi

t fr

om

ad

dit

ion

al o

pti

on

s to

ap

ply

fo

r p

riva

te lo

ans.

Mo

st m

arke

tin

g a

ssis

tan

ce p

rog

ram

mes

wer

e al

so r

e-au

tho

rize

d, a

lth

ou

gh

wit

h r

edu

ced

bu

dg

etar

y al

loca

tio

ns.

Ou

tlay

s fo

r cr

op

insu

ran

ce p

rog

ram

mes

, by

con

tras

t, w

ere

set

to e

xpan

d s

izea

bly

fo

r th

e se

con

d y

ear

in s

ucc

essi

on

.

May

-19

Mar

ket

reg

ula

tio

nG

rain

s, o

ilsee

ds

Red

uce

d t

he

nu

mb

er o

f p

ub

lic g

rain

sto

rag

e fa

cilit

ies

op

erat

ing

acr

oss

th

e co

un

try,

em

ph

asiz

ing

th

at t

he

clo

sure

s w

ere

envi

sag

ed in

loca

tio

ns

wh

ere

amp

le p

riva

te s

tora

ge

cap

acit

y w

as a

vaila

ble

.

May

-19

GM

O p

olic

ySo

ybea

ns

Au

tho

rize

d t

he

cult

ivat

ion

of

a n

ew t

ran

sgen

ic s

oyb

ean

var

iety

ch

arac

teri

zed

by

bo

th d

rou

gh

t to

lera

nce

an

d

resi

stan

ce t

o t

wo

wid

ely

use

d h

erb

icid

es. T

he

vari

ety’

s co

mm

erci

al d

istr

ibu

tio

n w

ou

ld s

tart

on

ce a

pp

rova

l in

ke

y im

po

rtin

g c

ou

ntr

ies

was

sec

ure

d.

Au

g-1

9B

iofu

el p

olic

yB

iod

iese

lR

aise

d, e

ffec

tive

1 S

epte

mb

er 2

019,

th

e m

and

ato

ry n

atio

nal

ble

nd

ing

rat

e fo

r b

iod

iese

l in

tra

nsp

ort

die

sel t

o

11 p

erce

nt.

Au

g-1

9B

iofu

el p

olic

yB

iod

iese

lIn

crea

sed

th

e n

um

ber

of

smal

l far

mer

co

op

erat

ives

th

at m

ay q

ual

ify

as s

up

plie

rs o

f ra

w m

ater

ials

to

th

e b

iod

iese

l in

du

stry

. Th

e m

easu

re w

as e

xpec

ted

to

lift

th

e n

um

ber

of

fam

ily f

arm

s p

arti

cip

atin

g in

th

e co

un

try’

s b

iod

iese

l pro

du

ctio

n c

hai

n t

o m

ore

th

an 1

00 0

00.

Sep

-19

Farm

er r

elie

f m

easu

res

Farm

pro

du

cts

Au

tho

rize

d o

ne-

tim

e p

aym

ents

to

far

mer

s in

th

e co

un

try’

s n

ort

her

n a

nd

no

rth

east

ern

reg

ion

s af

fect

ed b

y se

vere

dro

ug

ht.

Sep

-19

Mar

ket

reg

ula

tio

n

Soyb

ean

see

d

Ord

ered

, fo

r th

e se

con

d t

ime,

a s

eed

pro

du

cer

to d

epo

sit

roya

ltie

s co

llect

ed in

to a

n e

scro

w a

cco

un

t,

pen

din

g t

he

ou

tco

me

of

litig

atio

n o

ver

a p

aten

t d

isp

ute

.

Oct

-19

Pro

du

ctio

n s

up

po

rtFa

rm p

rod

uct

s

Lau

nch

ed a

set

of

mea

sure

s ai

med

at

exp

and

ing

fin

anci

ng

fo

r th

e ag

ricu

ltu

re s

ecto

r. In

terv

enti

on

s w

ou

ld

focu

s o

n: i

) st

imu

lati

ng

th

e p

rovi

sio

n o

f p

rod

uct

ion

loan

s b

y th

e p

riva

te s

ecto

r; ii

) re

du

cin

g in

tere

st r

ates

via

b

ette

r g

uar

ante

es f

or

len

din

g in

stit

uti

on

s; a

nd

iii)

en

han

cin

g c

om

pet

itio

n a

cro

ss r

ura

l cre

dit

op

erat

ion

s. T

he

new

po

licie

s w

ou

ld in

clu

de

the

equ

aliz

atio

n o

f in

tere

st r

ates

bet

wee

n le

nd

ing

inst

itu

tes

and

th

e p

oss

ibili

ty

of

issu

ing

sec

uri

ties

in f

ore

ign

cu

rren

cy.

Oct

-19

Mar

ket

reg

ula

tio

n/f

oo

d

stan

dar

ds

Oliv

e o

ilSu

spen

ded

an

d r

emo

ved

fro

m t

he

mar

ket

33 b

ran

ds

of

oliv

e o

il fo

un

d t

o b

e ad

ult

erat

ed w

ith

so

ybea

n o

il o

f u

nkn

ow

n o

rig

in.

Bu

rkin

a Fa

so

Sep

-19

Imp

ort

po

licy

Veg

etab

le o

ils

An

no

un

ced

pla

ns

to s

usp

end

sp

ecia

l im

po

rt p

erm

its

for

veg

etab

le o

ils (

and

su

gar

), in

su

pp

ort

of

do

mes

tic

pro

du

cers

.

Can

ada

Ap

r-19

San

itar

y st

and

ard

s/im

po

rt p

olic

ySe

lect

ed o

ilsee

ds,

mea

lsIn

tro

du

ced

str

ing

ent

qu

alit

y re

qu

irem

ents

fo

r se

lect

ed f

eed

ing

red

ien

ts –

incl

ud

ing

oils

eed

s an

d a

sso

ciat

ed

mea

ls –

imp

ort

ed f

rom

co

un

trie

s id

enti

fied

as

po

sin

g p

ote

nti

al c

on

cern

s w

ith

reg

ard

to

Afr

ican

Sw

ine

Feve

r.

Ma

jor

po

licy

de

velo

pm

en

ts

36 FOOD OUTLOOKNOVEMBER 2019

CO

UN

TRY

DA

TEPO

LIC

Y D

OM

AIN

PRO

DU

CT

DES

CR

IPTI

ON

Can

ada

Ap

r-19

Pest

icid

e re

gu

lati

on

Neo

nic

oti

no

ids

Det

erm

ined

th

at s

eed

tre

atm

ents

wit

h t

hre

e p

esti

cid

es b

elo

ng

ing

to

th

e n

eon

ico

tin

oid

s g

rou

p w

ou

ld

con

tin

ue

to b

e al

low

ed, w

hile

exi

stin

g r

estr

icti

on

s fo

r o

ther

per

mit

ted

use

s, p

roh

ibit

ion

of

sele

cted

ap

plic

atio

ns,

an

d m

axim

um

res

idu

e lim

its

wo

uld

rem

ain

in p

lace

.

May

-19

Pro

du

ctio

n s

up

po

rt

(tra

de

mit

igat

ion

m

easu

res)

R

apes

eed

Off

ered

fin

anci

al a

ssis

tan

ce t

o r

apes

eed

far

mer

s af

fect

ed b

y C

hin

a’s

rece

nt

dec

isio

n t

o s

usp

end

th

e im

po

rt

per

mit

s o

f se

lect

ed C

anad

ian

rap

esee

d s

up

plie

rs. M

ore

sp

ecifi

cally

, th

e am

ou

nt

of

fed

eral

loan

s av

aila

ble

to

al

l far

mer

s w

ou

ld b

e ra

ised

, wh

ile, f

or

rap

esee

d g

row

ers,

th

e in

tere

st-f

ree

po

rtio

n o

f su

ch lo

ans

wo

uld

be

incr

ease

d, a

nd

th

e ap

plic

atio

n d

ead

line

for

a fe

der

al in

com

e st

abili

zati

on

pro

gra

mm

e w

ou

ld b

e ex

ten

ded

. A

lso

pro

mis

ed t

o s

up

po

rt e

ffo

rts

by

the

rap

esee

d s

ecto

r to

div

ersi

fy in

to e

xpo

rt m

arke

ts o

ther

th

an C

hin

a.

Jun

-19

Pro

du

ctio

n s

up

po

rt

(tra

de

mit

igat

ion

m

easu

res)

R

apes

eed

An

no

un

ced

ad

dit

ion

al in

sura

nce

su

pp

ort

to

Can

adia

n r

apes

eed

exp

ort

ers,

in a

bid

to

hel

p r

apes

eed

ex

po

rtin

g c

om

pan

ies

man

age

un

cert

ain

ties

ass

oci

ated

wit

h t

he

exp

lora

tio

n o

f n

ew m

arke

ts –

in t

he

wak

e o

f re

cen

t sh

ipm

ent

dis

rup

tio

ns

to C

hin

a.

Jul-

19Ex

po

rt p

olic

yG

rain

s, o

ilsee

ds

Co

mm

itte

d f

un

din

g f

or

a va

riet

y o

f p

roje

cts

aim

ed a

t st

ren

gth

enin

g, d

iver

sify

ing

an

d e

xpan

din

g t

he

cou

ntr

y’s

gra

ins

and

oils

eed

s ex

po

rts.

Ben

efici

arie

s in

clu

de

the

Can

ola

Co

un

cil o

f C

anad

a, r

eflec

tin

g

go

vern

men

t ef

fort

s to

pro

mo

te t

he

cou

ntr

y’s

rap

esee

d e

xpo

rts.

Au

g-1

9Fa

rmer

rel

ief

mea

sure

sG

rain

s, o

ilsee

ds,

pu

lses

An

no

un

ced

th

at c

rop

pro

du

cers

aff

ecte

d b

y lo

w p

rice

s, r

edu

ced

mar

keti

ng

op

po

rtu

nit

ies

or

falli

ng

inco

mes

w

ou

ld b

e g

ran

ted

an

ad

dit

ion

al s

ix m

on

ths

to r

epay

ou

tsta

nd

ing

201

8 ca

sh a

dva

nce

s re

ceiv

ed u

nd

er

Can

ada’

s lo

an g

uar

ante

e p

rog

ram

me.

Au

g-1

9Tr

ansp

ort

infr

astr

uct

ure

m

easu

res

Gra

ins,

oils

eed

sSe

t as

ide

fun

ds

to u

pg

rad

e th

e co

un

try’

s p

ort

infr

astr

uct

ure

an

d e

nsu

re t

he

con

tin

ued

effi

cien

cy o

f th

e n

atio

nal

rai

l tra

nsp

ort

net

wo

rk. A

imed

at

ensu

rin

g t

hat

go

od

s ca

n m

ove

effi

cien

tly

to m

arke

ts, t

he

init

iati

ve

wo

uld

hel

p C

anad

ian

bu

sin

esse

s to

co

mp

ete

glo

bal

ly.

Sep

-19

Form

al t

rad

e co

nsu

ltat

ion

sR

apes

eed

Info

rmed

th

at it

req

ues

ted

bila

tera

l tra

de

neg

oti

atio

ns

wit

h C

hin

a at

th

e W

orl

d T

rad

e O

rgan

izat

ion

(W

TO),

to

res

olv

e q

ual

ity

con

cern

s ra

ised

by

Ch

ina

ove

r ra

pes

eed

imp

ort

ed f

rom

Can

ada.

Ch

ina(

Mai

nla

nd

)

Ap

r-19

Imp

ort

po

licy

Dis

tille

rs g

rain

sEv

alu

ated

th

e p

oss

ibili

ty o

f re

view

ing

th

e an

ti-d

um

pin

g a

nd

co

un

terv

ailin

g d

uti

es a

pp

lied

by

Ch

ina

on

im

po

rts

of

dis

tille

rs g

rain

s fr

om

th

e U

nit

ed S

tate

s.

Ap

r-19

Mar

ket

reg

ula

tio

nG

rain

s, v

eget

able

oils

Rel

ease

d a

n e

mer

gen

cy p

lan

to

reg

ula

te, i

n t

he

Bei

jing

Mu

nic

ipal

ity,

th

e su

pp

ly a

nd

pri

ces

of

gra

ins

and

co

oki

ng

oil

such

as

soyb

ean

oil.

Un

der

th

e m

easu

re, m

un

icip

al a

uth

ori

ties

wo

uld

mo

nit

or

wh

ole

sale

an

d

reta

il p

rice

s an

d m

ay r

eso

rt t

o p

rice

co

ntr

ol m

ech

anis

ms,

incl

ud

ing

th

e re

leas

e o

f g

rain

s/co

oki

ng

oil

fro

m

stat

e-o

wn

ed s

tock

pile

s.

Ch

ina(

Mai

nla

nd

)/

Mal

aysi

a

Ap

r-19

to

Ju

n-

19

Bila

tera

l, se

cto

r-sp

ecifi

c tr

ade

init

iati

ves

Palm

oil

Sig

ned

a m

emo

ran

du

m o

f u

nd

erst

and

ing

(M

oU

) w

her

eby

Ch

ina

wo

uld

ste

p u

p it

s p

urc

has

es o

f M

alay

sian

p

alm

oil

and

der

ived

pro

du

cts

ove

r th

e n

ext

5 ye

ars.

Th

e tw

o c

ou

ntr

ies

also

ag

reed

to

set

up

, in

Ch

ina,

an

av

iati

on

bio

fuel

pla

nt,

an

d t

o d

evel

op

th

e co

un

try’

s p

rod

uct

ion

of

un

satu

rate

d f

at. F

urt

her

mo

re, a

Ch

ines

e st

ate-

ow

ned

en

terp

rise

was

ch

ose

n t

o r

esu

me

con

stru

ctio

n o

f M

alay

sia’

s Ea

st C

oas

t R

ail L

ink,

alo

ng

wit

h

com

mit

men

ts b

y C

hin

a to

incr

ease

its

pu

rch

ases

of

Mal

aysi

an p

alm

oil.

Th

e tw

o c

ou

ntr

ies

also

ag

reed

to

si

mp

lify

the

pro

ced

ure

s fo

r im

po

rtin

g M

alay

sian

pal

m o

il in

to C

hin

a.

37FOOD OUTLOOKNOVEMBER 2019

Oilcro

ps

CO

UN

TRY

DA

TEPO

LIC

Y D

OM

AIN

PRO

DU

CT

DES

CR

IPTI

ON

Ch

ina(

Mai

nla

nd

)/U

nit

ed

Stat

es

May

-19

to O

ct-

19

Co

mp

reh

ensi

ve t

rad

e n

ego

tiat

ion

s So

ybea

ns,

oth

er o

ilcro

ps

and

d

eriv

ed p

rod

uct

s

Mo

ved

fo

rwar

d d

isco

nti

nu

ou

sly

wit

h t

rad

e ta

lks

that

co

mm

ence

d in

mid

-201

8. In

May

, fo

llow

ing

a

tem

po

rary

hal

t in

neg

oti

atio

ns,

th

e tw

o c

ou

ntr

ies

intr

od

uce

d a

dd

itio

nal

tra

de

mea

sure

s af

fect

ing

th

eir

resp

ecti

ve im

po

rts:

wh

ile t

he

US

rais

ed im

po

rt t

arif

fs o

n U

SD 2

00 b

illio

n w

ort

h o

f C

hin

ese

go

od

s fr

om

10

per

cen

t to

25

per

cen

t, C

hin

a in

crea

sed

tax

atio

n o

n U

S im

po

rts

wo

rth

USD

60

bill

ion

to

10–

25 p

erce

nt.

In

bo

th c

ases

, co

mm

od

itie

s af

fect

ed in

clu

de

a n

um

ber

of

oilc

rop

s an

d d

eriv

ed p

rod

uct

s, t

ran

sact

ion

s o

f w

hic

h,

ho

wev

er, h

ave

bee

n m

od

est

in r

ecen

t ye

ars.

Fo

llow

ing

a t

emp

ora

ry t

ruce

, in

Au

gu

st, n

ego

tiat

ion

s st

alle

d

agai

n, l

ead

ing

bo

th c

ou

ntr

ies

to a

nn

ou

nce

imp

lem

enta

tio

n o

f ad

dit

ion

al r

etal

iato

ry t

arif

fs o

n e

ach

oth

er’s

ex

po

rts

fro

m S

epte

mb

er. I

n t

he

case

of

Ch

ina,

th

e lis

t o

f co

mm

od

itie

s af

fect

ed w

ou

ld in

clu

de

US-

ori

gin

so

ybea

ns,

wh

ich

wo

uld

bea

r ad

dit

ion

al t

arif

fs o

f 5–

10 p

erce

nt.

Wh

en t

rad

e ta

lks

resu

med

in m

id-S

epte

mb

er,

the

US

ple

dg

ed t

o p

ost

po

ne

an in

crea

se in

ret

alia

tory

tar

iffs

sch

edu

led

fo

r O

cto

ber

, wh

ile C

hin

a co

mm

itte

d

to r

esu

me

pu

rch

ases

of

US

agri

cult

ura

l go

od

s, in

clu

din

g s

oyb

ean

s. M

ore

sp

ecifi

cally

, Ch

ina’

s tr

ade

auth

ori

ties

su

cces

sive

ly a

lloca

ted

sp

ecia

l im

po

rt q

uo

tas

for

soyb

ean

s –

com

pri

sin

g w

aive

rs o

f th

e re

leva

nt

reta

liato

ry

tari

ffs

– to

a n

um

ber

of

stat

e-ru

n, p

riva

te a

s w

ell a

s fo

reig

n-o

wn

ed b

usi

nes

ses.

Acc

ord

ing

to

th

e U

nit

ed

Stat

es D

epar

tmen

t o

f A

gri

cult

ure

(U

SDA

), b

y m

id-O

cto

ber

, so

ybea

n s

ales

to

Ch

ina

(fo

r d

eliv

ery

in t

he

2019

/20

mar

keti

ng

yea

r) h

ad r

each

ed 5

.7 m

illio

n t

on

nes

, co

mp

ared

wit

h t

o 1

.0 m

illio

n t

on

nes

a y

ear

earl

ier.

Ho

wev

er, w

ith

co

mp

reh

ensi

ve t

rad

e n

ego

tiat

ion

s st

ill u

nd

er w

ay, C

hin

a re

frai

ned

fro

m c

om

mit

tin

g t

o a

sp

ecifi

c, t

ime-

bo

un

d v

olu

me

of

US-

ori

gin

so

ybea

n p

urc

has

es.

Ch

ina(

Mai

nla

nd

)

Jun

-19

Imp

ort

po

licy

Dis

tille

rs g

rain

sD

ecid

ed n

ot

to r

emo

ve t

he

du

ties

ap

plie

d b

y C

hin

a o

n im

po

rts

of

dis

tille

rs g

rain

s fr

om

th

e U

nit

ed S

tate

s,

citi

ng

co

nti

nu

ed p

ote

nti

al d

amag

e to

do

mes

tic

pro

du

cers

.

Jun

-19

Foo

d s

tan

dar

ds

Sele

cted

oilc

rop

s, o

ils a

nd

fa

ts

No

tifi

ed t

he

WTO

of

a d

raft

nat

ion

al s

tan

dar

d o

n m

axim

um

myc

oto

xin

leve

ls in

fo

od

pro

du

cts.

Th

e p

rop

ose

d s

tan

dar

d d

eter

min

es m

axim

um

leve

ls f

or,

inte

r al

ia, s

oyb

ean

, gro

un

dn

uts

, ses

ame

and

th

eir

der

ived

pro

du

cts,

as

wel

l as

for

veg

etab

le o

ils a

nd

fat

s.

Ch

ina(

Mai

nla

nd

)/R

uss

ian

Fe

der

atio

nJu

n-1

9B

ilate

ral,

sect

or-

spec

ific

trad

e in

itia

tive

sSe

lect

ed o

ilsee

ds,

mea

lsSi

gn

ed a

bila

tera

l pro

toco

l on

ph

yto

san

itar

y st

and

ard

s ai

med

at

faci

litat

ing

exp

ort

s o

f a

nu

mb

er o

f p

rod

uct

s –

incl

ud

ing

so

ybea

ns,

rap

esee

d a

nd

su

nfl

ow

er s

eed

mea

l – f

rom

th

e R

uss

ian

Fed

erat

ion

to

Ch

ina.

Ch

ina(

Mai

nla

nd

)

Jun

-19

to S

ep-

19M

arke

t re

gu

lati

on

Soyb

ean

s, r

apes

eed

oil

Hel

d s

ever

al n

atio

nal

au

ctio

ns

fro

m s

tate

res

erve

s co

veri

ng

so

ybea

n o

il (i

n A

ug

ust

), r

apes

eed

oil

(fro

m m

id-

Jun

e to

mid

-Au

gu

st),

an

d s

oyb

ean

s (f

rom

mid

-Ju

ne

to e

arly

-Sep

tem

ber

). F

or

all t

hre

e co

mm

od

itie

s, t

ota

l vo

lum

es s

old

wer

e si

gn

ifica

ntl

y b

elo

w la

st y

ear’

s le

vels

.

Jul-

19H

ealt

h p

olic

yO

ils a

nd

fat

sR

elea

sed

a s

et o

f n

utr

itio

nal

gu

idel

ines

incl

ud

ing

am

bit

iou

s ta

rget

s fo

r lo

wer

ing

peo

ple

s’ d

ieta

ry in

take

of

oils

, sal

t an

d s

ug

ar b

y 20

30, i

n a

bid

to

min

imiz

e ad

vers

e ef

fect

s o

n h

um

an h

ealt

h.

Jul-

19

to S

ep-

19

Imp

ort

po

licy

(tra

de

mit

igat

ion

mea

sure

s)So

ybea

ns,

so

yoil,

so

ymea

l, ra

pes

eed

oil,

pal

m o

il

Lau

nch

ed n

ew e

ffo

rts

– in

par

alle

l wit

h t

he

cou

ntr

y’s

pro

trac

ted

tra

de

neg

oti

atio

ns

wit

h t

he

Un

ited

Sta

tes

– to

exp

and

th

e n

atio

n’s

imp

ort

op

tio

ns

for

oils

eed

s an

d d

eriv

ed p

rod

uct

s. M

ore

sp

ecifi

cally

, i)

imp

ort

s o

f so

ybea

ns,

so

ybea

n m

eal,

rap

esee

d m

eal a

nd

su

nfl

ow

er m

eal f

rom

th

e R

uss

ian

Fed

erat

ion

wer

e ap

pro

ved

; ii)

p

lan

s to

rem

ove

so

ybea

n o

il, r

apes

eed

oil

and

pal

m o

il fr

om

its

list

of

pro

du

cts

sub

ject

to

imp

ort

tar

iff

qu

ota

m

anag

emen

t w

ere

ann

ou

nce

d; i

ii) s

oym

eal i

mp

ort

s fr

om

sel

ecte

d c

rush

ers

in A

rgen

tin

a w

ere

app

rove

d; a

nd

iv

) th

e p

oss

ibili

ty o

f im

po

rtin

g s

oym

eal f

rom

Bra

zil w

as e

xplo

red

.

Au

g-1

9Pr

od

uct

ion

su

pp

ort

Soyb

ean

sLo

wer

ed t

he

sub

sid

ies

off

ered

to

so

ybea

n g

row

ers

in t

he

cou

ntr

y’s

key

soyb

ean

gro

win

g p

rovi

nce

H

eilo

ng

jian

g –

dri

ven

by

con

cern

s o

ver

larg

er t

han

des

ired

cu

ts in

mai

ze p

rod

uct

ion

.

Ch

ina(

Mai

nla

nd

)/

Thai

lan

dSe

p-1

9B

ilate

ral,

sect

or-

spec

ific

trad

e in

itia

tive

sPa

lm k

ern

el e

xpel

ler

Sig

ned

an

Mo

U a

llow

ing

Ch

ina

to p

rom

ote

th

e im

po

rt o

f p

alm

ker

nel

exp

elle

r (t

o b

e u

sed

as

anim

al f

eed

) fr

om

Th

aila

nd

. Th

e in

itia

tive

co

mp

lem

ents

oth

er e

ffo

rts

by

Ch

ina

to d

iver

sify

its

do

mes

tic

feed

su

pp

ly c

hai

n.

Ma

jor

po

licy

de

velo

pm

en

ts

38 FOOD OUTLOOKNOVEMBER 2019

CO

UN

TRY

DA

TEPO

LIC

Y D

OM

AIN

PRO

DU

CT

DES

CR

IPTI

ON

Egyp

tM

ay-1

9Se

cto

r d

evel

op

men

t m

easu

res

Oliv

e tr

eeA

nn

ou

nce

d p

lan

s to

bo

ost

do

mes

tic

oliv

e o

il p

rod

uct

ion

by

pro

mo

tin

g t

he

pla

nti

ng

of

oliv

e tr

ees,

wit

h a

vi

ew t

o r

edu

cin

g t

he

cou

ntr

y’s

relia

nce

on

imp

ort

s o

f ed

ible

oils

.

Euro

pea

n U

nio

n

Ap

r-19

Foo

d s

tan

dar

ds/

foo

d

safe

ty m

easu

reTr

ans

fatt

y ac

idA

pp

rove

d a

n E

U-w

ide

max

imu

m li

mit

fo

r h

arm

ful t

ran

sfat

s in

fo

od

pro

du

cts.

Un

der

th

e n

ew r

egu

lati

on

, as

of

Ap

ril 2

021,

th

e am

ou

nt

of

ind

ust

rial

ly-p

rod

uce

d t

ran

sfat

s in

pro

cess

ed f

oo

ds

may

no

t ex

ceed

2 g

per

100

g

of

fat.

May

-19

Mar

ket

con

tro

l/fo

od

st

and

ard

s O

live

oil

Dis

man

tled

an

org

aniz

ed c

rim

e g

rou

p t

rad

ing

co

un

terf

eit

oliv

e o

il b

etw

een

Ital

y an

d G

erm

any.

Th

e ca

se

con

cern

ed lo

w-q

ual

ity

oil

adu

lter

ated

wit

h v

ario

us

sub

stan

ces

and

su

bse

qu

entl

y so

ld a

s ex

tra

virg

in o

il.

May

-19

Pest

co

ntr

ol

Xyl

ella

fas

tid

iosa

Ren

ewed

its

effo

rts

to p

reve

nt

the

furt

her

sp

read

of

the

xyle

lla f

asti

dio

sa d

isea

se, e

mp

has

izin

g t

he

imp

ort

ance

of

mea

sure

s to

i) c

on

tro

l in

sect

s kn

ow

n t

o t

ran

smit

th

e p

ath

og

en, a

nd

ii)

min

imiz

e th

e d

elay

b

etw

een

det

ecti

on

an

d im

ple

men

tati

on

of

con

tro

l in

stru

men

ts, s

uch

as

rem

ovi

ng

infe

cted

pla

nts

an

d

esta

blis

hin

g d

emar

cate

d a

reas

.

Jun

-19

Bio

fuel

po

licy

Bio

die

sel

Det

erm

ined

th

at t

he

new

reg

ula

tio

ns

defi

nin

g h

igh

/low

ind

irec

t la

nd

-use

ch

ang

e (I

LUC

)-ri

sk b

iofu

el

feed

sto

cks

wo

uld

co

me

into

fo

rce

on

10

Jun

e 20

19. T

he

mea

sure

en

tails

th

at, a

s o

f 20

30, s

elec

ted

typ

es o

f b

iod

iese

l may

no

lon

ger

co

un

t to

war

ds

mee

tin

g t

he

EU’s

gre

en f

uel

co

nsu

mp

tio

n t

arg

ets.

Jun

-19

Pest

icid

e re

gu

lati

on

Dim

eth

oat

eA

nn

ou

nce

d t

hat

mem

ber

sta

tes

may

no

t re

new

au

tho

riza

tio

ns

of

inse

ctic

ides

co

nta

inin

g d

imet

ho

ate

bey

on

d

July

202

0, c

itin

g a

nim

al/h

um

an h

ealt

h c

on

cern

s.

Euro

pea

n U

nio

n/

MER

CO

SUR

Jun

-19

Co

mp

reh

ensi

ve t

rad

e ag

reem

ents

All

cro

ps,

live

sto

ck p

rod

uct

s

The

EU a

nd

th

e M

ERC

OSU

R b

loc

reac

hed

ag

reem

ent

in p

rin

cip

le o

n a

co

mp

reh

ensi

ve f

ree-

trad

e tr

eaty

. Th

e ag

reem

ent

wo

uld

pro

gre

ssiv

ely

enh

ance

mar

ket

acce

ss f

or

go

od

s an

d s

ervi

ces,

wh

ile p

rom

oti

ng

co

op

erat

ion

in

cu

sto

ms

issu

es, f

oo

d s

afet

y an

d s

ust

ain

able

tra

de.

Nex

t st

eps

incl

ud

e th

e tr

eaty

’s le

gal

rev

isio

n a

nd

p

arlia

men

tary

rat

ifica

tio

n in

all

par

tici

pat

ing

co

un

trie

s.

Euro

pea

n U

nio

n/V

iet

Nam

Jun

-19

Co

mp

reh

ensi

ve t

rad

e ag

reem

ents

Sele

cted

gra

ins,

oils

eed

sTh

e EU

an

d V

iet

Nam

sig

ned

a F

ree

Trad

e A

gre

emen

t th

at w

ou

ld li

ft t

arif

fs o

n 9

9 p

erce

nt

of

go

od

s tr

aded

, in

clu

din

g w

hea

t, r

ice,

mai

ze a

nd

so

ybea

n p

rod

uct

s. T

he

dea

l will

co

me

into

fo

rce

on

ce it

is r

atifi

ed b

y la

wm

aker

s o

n b

oth

sid

es.

Euro

pea

n U

nio

n

Jul-

19G

MO

po

licy

Soyb

ean

s, r

apes

eed

Ap

pro

ved

th

e im

po

rt o

f a

new

GM

inse

ct-r

esis

tan

t so

ybea

n v

arie

ty a

nd

ren

ewed

th

e im

po

rt p

erm

it f

or

a g

lufo

sin

ate-

tole

ran

t G

M r

apes

eed

var

iety

.

Jul-

19En

viro

nm

enta

l po

licy

Gra

ins,

oils

eed

s/o

ils/m

eals

, liv

esto

ck p

rod

uct

s, p

aper

Set

ou

t a

pla

n o

f ac

tio

n a

imed

at

con

trib

uti

ng

to

th

e p

rote

ctio

n a

nd

reh

abili

tati

on

of

the

wo

rld

’s

fore

sts,

ass

erti

ng

th

at d

eman

d f

or

foo

d, f

eed

, bio

fuel

, tim

ber

an

d o

ther

go

od

s –

and

hen

ce E

U im

po

rts

of

com

mo

dit

ies

such

as

gra

ins,

oils

eed

s, v

eget

able

oils

, bee

f o

r p

aper

– a

re a

mo

ng

th

e m

ain

dri

vers

of

glo

bal

def

ore

stat

ion

. Th

e p

lan

aim

s to

i) r

edu

ce t

he

EU’s

co

nsu

mp

tio

n f

oo

tpri

nt

on

lan

d; i

i) e

nco

ura

ge

the

con

sum

pti

on

of

pro

du

cts

fro

m d

efo

rest

atio

n-f

ree

sup

ply

ch

ain

s; a

nd

iii)

en

han

ce t

he

avai

lab

ility

of

info

rmat

ion

on

fo

rest

s an

d c

om

mo

dit

y su

pp

ly c

hai

ns.

Mea

sure

s en

visa

ged

incl

ud

e th

e se

arch

fo

r m

ean

s to

str

eng

then

cer

tifi

cati

on

sch

emes

fo

r d

efo

rest

atio

n-f

ree

pro

du

cts

and

act

ion

s to

min

imiz

e th

e ri

sk o

f d

efo

rest

atio

n a

nd

fo

rest

deg

rad

atio

n a

sso

ciat

ed w

ith

co

mm

od

ity

imp

ort

s.

Au

g-1

9Im

po

rt p

olic

y/b

iofu

el

po

licy

Bio

die

sel

Imp

ose

d p

rovi

sio

nal

co

un

terv

ailin

g d

uti

es o

n im

po

rts

of

bio

die

sel f

rom

Ind

on

esia

, aft

er d

eter

min

ing

th

at

Ind

on

esia

n b

iod

iese

l pro

du

cers

ben

efit

fro

m g

ran

ts, t

ax in

cen

tive

s an

d a

cces

s to

raw

mat

eria

ls (

no

tab

ly p

alm

o

il) b

elo

w m

arke

t p

rice

s –

a co

nd

itio

n b

elie

ved

to

infl

ict

a th

reat

of

eco

no

mic

dam

age

to E

U p

rod

uce

rs.

Oilcro

ps

39FOOD OUTLOOKNOVEMBER 2019

CO

UN

TRY

DA

TEPO

LIC

Y D

OM

AIN

PRO

DU

CT

DES

CR

IPTI

ON

Euro

pea

n U

nio

n

Au

g-1

9 to

Sep

-19

Pest

icid

e re

gu

lati

on

Gly

ph

osa

te

Info

rmed

of

pla

ns

by

a n

um

ber

of

mem

ber

sta

tes

to b

an t

he

sale

of

gly

ph

osa

te-b

ased

pes

tici

des

in t

hei

r te

rrit

ori

es –

bas

ed o

n h

um

an h

ealt

h c

on

cern

s. A

t th

e EU

leve

l, th

e h

erb

icid

e’s

auth

ori

zati

on

is s

et t

o e

xpir

e in

Dec

emb

er 2

022.

Un

less

th

e Eu

rop

ean

Co

mm

issi

on

ext

end

s th

e au

tho

riza

tio

n o

f g

lyp

ho

sate

at

EU le

vel,

or

gra

nts

imp

ort

to

lera

nce

fo

r th

e h

erb

icid

e to

th

ird

co

un

trie

s, im

pen

din

g n

atio

nal

ban

s h

ave

the

po

ten

tial

to

af

fect

exp

ort

s o

f ag

ricu

ltu

ral p

rod

uct

s to

th

e EU

.

Sep

-19

Pest

co

ntr

ol

Xyl

ella

fas

tid

iosa

Det

erm

ined

th

at It

aly

faile

d t

o c

om

ply

wit

h a

n E

U-w

ide

req

uir

emen

t to

tak

e m

easu

res

to c

on

tain

th

e sp

read

of

xyle

lla f

asti

dio

sa, t

he

bac

teri

um

th

at a

ffec

ts o

live

tree

s an

d o

ther

pla

nts

, cau

sin

g t

hei

r d

eath

by

des

icca

tio

n.

Sep

-19

Foo

d s

tan

dar

ds

Soyb

ean

sN

oti

fied

th

e W

TO a

bo

ut

new

ly e

stab

lish

ed m

axim

um

res

idu

e lim

its

for

sele

cted

fu

ng

icid

es, i

nse

ctic

ides

an

d

inse

ctic

ides

in s

oyb

ean

s an

d c

erea

ls.

Oct

-19

Mar

ket

reg

ula

tio

n

Oliv

e o

il

Co

nsi

der

ed a

ctiv

atin

g a

tem

po

rary

pri

vate

sto

rag

e m

ech

anis

m f

or

oliv

e o

il, in

a b

id t

o a

ssis

t p

rod

uce

rs –

es

pec

ially

in S

pai

n –

to

ove

rco

me

the

rece

nt

dec

line

in m

arke

t p

rice

s st

emm

ing

fro

m a

glu

t in

su

pp

lies.

Th

e EU

’s C

om

mo

n M

arke

t O

rgan

izat

ion

reg

ula

tio

n in

clu

des

pro

visi

on

s fo

r th

e sa

id p

rice

sta

bili

zati

on

mec

han

ism

, w

hic

h w

as la

st u

sed

in 2

012.

Fin

lan

dJu

n-1

9B

iofu

el p

olic

yB

iod

iese

lA

nn

ou

nce

d a

mb

itio

us

go

als

rela

ted

to

clim

ate

chan

ge,

incl

ud

ing

th

e o

blig

atio

n t

o b

len

d a

viat

ion

fu

el w

ith

30

per

cen

t re

new

able

fu

el b

y 20

30. F

eed

sto

ck s

uit

able

fo

r re

new

able

jet

fuel

incl

ud

es u

sed

co

oki

ng

oil

and

an

imal

was

te f

at.

Gh

ana

Feb

-19

Sect

or

dev

elo

pm

ent

mea

sure

sC

oco

nu

tR

enew

ed it

s ef

fort

s to

pro

mo

te t

he

cult

ivat

ion

of

coco

nu

t as

a c

ash

cro

p f

or

exp

ort

an

d d

om

esti

c co

nsu

mp

tio

n. S

up

po

rt m

easu

res

incl

ud

e th

e fr

ee d

istr

ibu

tio

n o

f h

ybri

d c

oco

nu

t se

edlin

gs

in t

he

cou

ntr

y’s

coas

tal C

entr

al R

egio

n.

Ind

ia

May

-19

Bio

fuel

po

licy

Bio

die

sel

Au

tho

rize

d n

atio

nw

ide

sale

s o

f p

ure

bio

die

sel (

B10

0) f

or

tran

spo

rtat

ion

pu

rpo

ses.

Mea

nw

hile

, th

e sa

le

of

read

y-m

ade

ble

nd

s o

f w

hat

ever

per

cen

tag

e co

nti

nu

es t

o b

e fo

rbid

den

, an

d B

100

may

no

t b

e so

ld a

s a

stan

dal

on

e re

ady-

for-

use

fu

el –

imp

lyin

g t

hat

th

e o

nu

s o

f b

len

din

g B

100

wit

h c

on

ven

tio

nal

die

sel r

ests

on

b

uye

rs.

Jun

-19

Foo

d s

tan

dar

ds/

foo

d

safe

ty m

easu

res

Veg

etab

le o

ilsA

men

ded

th

e co

un

try’

s la

bel

ling

reg

ula

tio

ns,

det

erm

inin

g t

hat

pac

kag

ed v

eget

able

oil

ble

nd

s h

ave

to b

e la

bel

led

as

such

, in

clu

din

g m

enti

on

of

bo

th t

he

typ

e o

f o

ils in

clu

ded

an

d t

he

per

cen

tag

e o

f ea

ch o

il b

y w

eig

ht.

Th

e n

ew r

egu

lati

on

cam

e in

to f

orc

e o

n 1

Ju

ly 2

019.

Jun

-19

Pro

du

ctio

n s

up

po

rtC

op

raR

epo

rted

pu

blic

pro

cure

men

t o

f co

pra

fro

m f

arm

ers

in T

amil

Nad

u s

tate

un

der

th

e n

atio

nal

Pri

ce S

up

po

rt

Sch

eme.

Wit

h p

rocu

rem

ent

pri

ces

set

at 2

7 p

erce

nt

abo

ve la

st y

ear’

s le

vel,

the

mea

sure

was

inte

nd

ed t

o h

elp

st

abili

ze c

op

ra p

rice

s o

n t

he

Ind

ian

mar

ket.

Jul-

19Pr

od

uct

ion

su

pp

ort

Gra

ins,

oils

eed

s

Sig

nifi

can

tly

rais

ed t

he

min

imu

m s

up

po

rt p

rice

s fo

r 20

19/2

0 K

har

if (

sum

mer

) o

ilsee

d c

rop

s –

in a

n e

ffo

rt

to in

cen

tivi

ze d

om

esti

c p

rod

uct

ion

an

d t

hu

s cu

rb t

he

cou

ntr

y’s

veg

etab

le o

il im

po

rts,

an

d in

form

ed t

hat

sp

ecia

lized

ag

enci

es d

esig

nat

ed b

y C

entr

al G

ove

rnm

ent

will

co

nti

nu

e to

un

der

take

pro

cure

men

t o

f o

ilsee

ds

fro

m s

mal

l an

d m

arg

inal

far

mer

s.

Jul-

19Im

po

rt p

olic

yPa

lm s

tear

inW

ith

dre

w t

he

du

ty e

xem

pti

on

pre

vio

usl

y g

ran

ted

fo

r p

alm

ste

arin

an

d p

alm

fat

ty a

cid

dis

tilla

tes

imp

ort

s.

The

mea

sure

s w

ere

mea

nt

to s

up

po

rt t

he

cou

ntr

y’s

oil

refi

nin

g in

du

stry

, wh

ich

pro

du

ces

con

sid

erab

le

volu

mes

of

pal

m s

tear

in a

nd

oth

er p

alm

pro

du

cts

by

refi

nin

g im

po

rted

pal

m o

il.

Jul-

19Se

cto

r d

evel

op

men

t m

easu

res

Co

con

ut

Ap

pro

ved

a t

hre

e-ye

ar p

roje

ct t

o s

up

po

rt t

he

coco

nu

t se

cto

r in

Ker

ala

Stat

e. T

he

pro

ject

is a

imed

at

revi

vin

g

coco

nu

t fa

rmin

g b

y su

pp

ort

ing

gro

wer

s w

ith

sci

enti

fic

pro

toco

ls f

or

valu

e ad

dit

ion

an

d p

roce

ssin

g.

Ma

jor

po

licy

de

velo

pm

en

ts

40 FOOD OUTLOOKNOVEMBER 2019

CO

UN

TRY

DA

TEPO

LIC

Y D

OM

AIN

PRO

DU

CT

DES

CR

IPTI

ON

Ind

ia

Au

g-1

9B

iofu

el p

olic

yB

iod

iese

l

Allo

wed

sta

te-o

wn

ed f

uel

co

mp

anie

s to

pro

cure

bio

die

sel m

ade

fro

m u

sed

co

oki

ng

oil

(UC

O)

at fi

xed

p

rice

s. T

he

lau

nch

of

a fo

rmal

ch

ain

fo

r th

e co

llect

ion

an

d r

ecyc

ling

of

UC

O w

as a

imed

at

bo

th lo

wer

ing

th

e co

un

try’

s m

iner

al o

il im

po

rts

and

red

uci

ng

hu

man

hea

lth

haz

ard

s th

at a

rise

fro

m t

he

rep

eate

d u

se o

f co

oki

ng

oils

.

Au

g-1

9Im

po

rt p

olic

yV

eget

able

oils

Co

nsi

der

ed le

vyin

g a

ces

s o

n a

ll ve

get

able

oil

imp

ort

s, w

ith

a v

iew

to

set

tin

g u

p a

n O

ilsee

d D

evel

op

men

t Fu

nd

, tas

ked

wit

h b

oo

stin

g t

he

cou

ntr

y’s

stag

nat

ing

oilc

rop

pro

du

ctio

n.

Au

g-1

9Se

cto

r d

evel

op

men

t m

easu

res

Oils

eed

sLa

un

ched

a p

rog

ram

me

to e

nh

ance

oils

eed

pro

du

ctio

n in

Pu

nja

b S

tate

. Th

e in

itia

tive

wo

uld

fo

cus

on

yi

eld

imp

rove

men

t m

easu

res,

en

han

cin

g p

rod

uct

ion

bo

th v

erti

cally

an

d h

ori

zon

tally

, an

d p

rom

oti

ng

m

ech

aniz

atio

n t

o m

inim

ize

po

st-h

arve

st lo

sses

.

Sep

-19

Imp

ort

po

licy

Palm

oil

Intr

od

uce

d –

eff

ecti

ve 4

Sep

tem

ber

201

9 an

d f

or

a p

erio

d o

f 18

0 d

ays

– a

5 p

erce

nt

‘saf

egu

ard

tar

iff’

on

im

po

rts

of

refi

ned

pal

m o

il fr

om

Mal

aysi

a, t

hu

s en

din

g t

he

pre

fere

nti

al t

reat

men

t M

alay

sian

exp

ort

ers

enjo

yed

sin

ce t

he

beg

inn

ing

of

2019

. Th

e sa

feg

uar

d m

easu

re r

esu

lted

in a

har

mo

niz

ed t

ota

l im

po

rt d

uty

of

50 p

erce

nt

for

refi

ned

pal

m o

il fr

om

all

ori

gin

s.

Sep

-19

Hea

lth

po

licy

Flu

id/s

olid

ed

ible

oils

D

ecla

red

, in

Pu

nja

b S

tate

, a la

rge

nu

mb

er o

f fl

uid

an

d s

olid

ed

ible

oil

bra

nd

s as

un

safe

fo

r h

um

an

con

sum

pti

on

, rem

ove

d t

hem

fro

m t

he

mar

ket

and

ban

ned

th

eir

pro

du

ctio

n a

nd

dis

trib

uti

on

un

til a

ll ap

plic

able

fo

od

sta

nd

ard

s ar

e m

et.

Ind

on

esia

/Th

e Ph

ilip

pin

esA

pr-

19B

ilate

ral,

sect

or-

spec

ific

trad

e in

itia

tive

sC

oco

nu

t p

rod

uct

sSi

gn

ed a

nu

mb

er o

f M

oU

s in

ten

ded

to

en

han

ce t

rad

e an

d in

vest

men

t b

etw

een

th

e tw

o c

ou

ntr

ies,

of

wh

ich

o

ne

pro

vid

es f

or

incr

ease

d p

urc

has

es o

f Ph

ilip

pin

e co

con

ut

oil

and

oth

er c

oco

nu

t p

rod

uct

s b

y In

do

nes

ian

co

mp

anie

s.

Ind

on

esia

Ap

r-19

Bio

fuel

po

licy

Bio

die

sel

Lau

nch

ed t

ech

nic

al t

rial

s w

ith

B10

0 (i

.e. p

ure

pal

m o

il-b

ased

bio

die

sel)

, in

a b

id t

o f

urt

her

incr

ease

do

mes

tic

up

take

of

pal

m o

il am

id in

crea

sin

gly

un

cert

ain

exp

ort

pro

spec

ts.

May

-19

to O

ct-

19

Exp

ort

po

licy

(var

iab

le

exp

ort

tax

)Pa

lm o

ilK

ept

the

cou

ntr

y’s

slid

ing

tax

on

cru

de

pal

m o

il ex

po

rts

at z

ero

, in

a b

id t

o s

tim

ula

te s

hip

men

ts a

nd

pre

ven

t d

om

esti

c st

ock

s fr

om

ris

ing

am

id h

isto

rica

lly lo

w w

orl

d m

arke

t p

rice

s. O

cto

ber

201

9 m

arke

d t

he

30th

mo

nth

in

su

cces

sio

n o

f ta

x-fr

ee p

alm

oil

exp

ort

s.

Jun

-19

Bio

fuel

po

licy

Bio

die

sel

Sup

po

rted

tes

ts o

f tr

ansp

ort

atio

n d

iese

l wit

h a

bio

-co

nte

nt

of

30 p

erce

nt,

in li

ne

wit

h r

enew

ed g

ove

rnm

ent

effo

rts

to d

evel

op

th

e d

om

esti

c m

arke

t fo

r p

alm

oil,

am

id u

nce

rtai

n e

xpo

rt p

rosp

ects

. Rep

ort

edly

, pla

ns

to e

xten

d t

he

on

go

ing

B30

tes

ts t

o t

rain

s, v

esse

ls a

nd

hea

vy m

ach

iner

y in

th

e m

inin

g in

du

stry

are

un

der

co

nsi

der

atio

n. T

he

Go

vern

men

t en

visa

ged

incr

easi

ng

th

e p

reva

ilin

g m

and

ato

ry b

len

din

g r

equ

irem

ent

of

20

per

cen

t to

30

per

cen

t in

202

0.

Jul-

19En

viro

nm

enta

l po

licy

Fore

st, p

eatl

and

Ru

led

th

at t

he

Go

vern

men

t w

as li

able

fo

r la

nd

-cle

arin

g f

ore

st fi

res

reco

rded

th

rou

gh

ou

t th

e co

un

try

in

2015

, an

d r

equ

este

d t

he

imp

lem

enta

tio

n o

f st

rin

gen

t m

easu

res

to p

reve

nt

fire

s fr

om

rec

urr

ing

– t

her

eby

com

ple

men

tin

g o

ng

oin

g p

rog

ram

mes

to

res

tore

dam

aged

pea

tlan

d a

nd

min

imiz

e h

arm

ful p

eatl

and

co

nve

rsio

n in

volv

ing

fire

s.

Au

g-1

9M

arke

t re

gu

lati

on

Palm

oil

Inst

ruct

ed r

etai

lers

to

rem

ove

fo

od

an

d c

osm

etic

pro

du

cts

carr

yin

g ‘p

alm

oil-

free

’ lab

els

fro

m t

hei

r sh

elve

s,

stat

ing

th

at t

he

term

’s u

se c

on

stit

ute

d m

isle

adin

g la

bel

ling

. Th

e m

ove

refl

ects

eff

ort

s to

pro

tect

th

e im

age

of

pal

m o

il an

d s

afeg

uar

d t

he

com

mo

dit

y’s

com

pet

itiv

enes

s.

Au

g-1

9B

iofu

el p

olic

yB

iod

iese

lA

nn

ou

nce

d p

lan

s to

incr

ease

th

e co

un

try’

s m

and

ato

ry b

iod

iese

l ble

nd

ing

req

uir

emen

t to

30

per

cen

t in

Ja

nu

ary

2020

, an

d t

o 5

0 p

erce

nt

tow

ard

s th

e en

d o

f th

at y

ear.

The

pla

nn

ed s

hif

t w

ou

ld h

elp

to

cu

rb t

he

nat

ion

’s e

ner

gy

imp

ort

s an

d b

oo

st d

om

esti

c p

alm

oil

up

take

.

Au

g-1

9En

viro

nm

enta

l po

licy

Fore

st, p

eatl

and

Co

nve

rted

th

e ex

isti

ng

tem

po

rary

mo

rato

riu

m o

n c

on

cess

ion

s to

cle

ar p

rim

ary

fore

st a

nd

co

nve

rt p

eatl

and

(f

or

any

typ

e o

f p

lan

tati

on

dev

elo

pm

ent

or

log

gin

g a

ctiv

ity)

into

a p

erm

anen

t b

an. A

cco

rdin

g t

o o

ffici

al

dat

a, t

he

8-ye

ar o

ld m

ora

tori

um

co

ntr

ibu

ted

sig

nifi

can

tly

to s

low

ing

def

ore

stat

ion

an

d p

eatl

and

co

nve

rsio

n

acro

ss t

he

cou

ntr

y.

Oilcro

ps

41FOOD OUTLOOKNOVEMBER 2019

CO

UN

TRY

DA

TEPO

LIC

Y D

OM

AIN

PRO

DU

CT

DES

CR

IPTI

ON

Ind

on

esia

Au

g-1

9La

nd

go

vern

ance

Oil

pal

m

Det

erm

ined

th

at a

larg

e p

art

of

the

cou

ntr

y’s

oil-

pal

m p

lan

tati

on

s ar

e in

bre

ach

of

a ra

ng

e o

f st

ate

reg

ula

tio

ns,

no

tab

ly r

egar

din

g c

ult

ivat

ion

per

mit

s, a

cces

s to

pro

tect

ed a

reas

, th

e al

loca

tio

n o

f la

nd

to

sm

allh

old

er f

arm

ers,

th

e ri

gh

ts o

f in

dig

eno

us

com

mu

nit

ies,

an

d n

atio

nal

su

stai

nab

ility

sta

nd

ard

s. T

o a

dd

ress

th

e is

sues

rai

sed

, th

e G

ove

rnm

ent

is c

on

sid

erin

g le

gal

act

ion

s, in

clu

din

g fi

nes

ag

ain

st n

on

-co

mp

lian

t co

mp

anie

s.

Ind

on

esia

/Mo

zam

biq

ue

Au

g-1

9B

ilate

ral,

sect

or-

spec

ific

trad

e in

itia

tive

sPa

lm o

ilSi

gn

ed a

pre

fere

nti

al t

rad

e ag

reem

ent

pro

mo

tin

g b

ilate

ral t

rad

e an

d p

rovi

din

g f

or

the

gra

du

al r

emo

val

of

imp

ort

du

ties

on

nu

mer

ou

s co

mm

od

itie

s. P

rod

uct

s fo

r w

hic

h M

oza

mb

iqu

e w

ill lo

wer

its

tari

ffs

incl

ud

e In

do

nes

ian

pal

m o

il.

Ind

on

esia

Sep

-19

Bio

fuel

po

licy

Bio

die

sel

Rel

ease

d t

he

resu

lts

of

road

tes

ts o

f d

iese

l co

nta

inin

g 3

0 p

erce

nt

of

pal

m o

il-b

ased

bio

die

sel s

ho

win

g t

hat

th

e b

iofu

el w

as s

afe

for

cars

. Co

nfi

rmed

pla

ns

to m

ake

B30

co

nsu

mp

tio

n m

and

ato

ry f

rom

Jan

uar

y 20

20, a

nd

al

loca

ted

sp

ecifi

c m

arke

tin

g q

uo

tas

to t

he

cou

ntr

y’s

oil

com

pan

ies.

Sep

-19

Exp

ort

po

licy

(var

iab

le

exp

ort

levy

)Pa

lm o

ilA

nn

ou

nce

d t

hat

– n

otw

ith

stan

din

g r

ecen

t im

wp

rove

men

ts in

mar

ket

pri

ces

– th

e co

un

try’

s va

riab

le e

xpo

rt

levy

on

fo

reig

n p

alm

oil

sale

s w

ou

ld r

emai

n s

usp

end

ed u

nti

l 1 J

anu

ary

2020

, wit

h a

vie

w t

o s

up

po

rtin

g t

he

cou

ntr

y’s

exp

ort

s an

d p

rote

ctin

g g

row

ers’

inco

mes

.

Sep

-19

Sect

or

dev

elo

pm

ent

mea

sure

sO

il p

alm

Mar

ked

ly lo

wer

ed t

he

Go

vern

men

t’s

ann

ual

tar

get

fo

r as

sist

ing

sm

allh

old

ers

in r

epla

cin

g a

ged

oil

pal

ms

wit

h m

ore

per

form

ant

vari

etie

s, c

itin

g d

iffi

cult

ies

face

d b

y sm

all g

row

ers

in p

rovi

ng

th

eir

elig

ibili

ty f

or

par

tici

pat

ing

in t

he

nat

ion

wid

e sc

hem

e. T

he

Go

vern

men

t’s

rep

lan

tin

g p

rog

ram

me

is a

imed

at

enh

anci

ng

p

rod

uct

ivit

y o

n e

xist

ing

est

ates

, wh

ile h

alti

ng

th

e ex

pan

sio

n o

f p

lan

tati

on

s.

Mal

aysi

a

Ap

r-19

Pro

du

ctio

n s

up

po

rtPa

lm o

ilPr

ovi

ded

fin

anci

al a

id t

o t

he

stat

e-o

wn

ed o

il-p

alm

ag

ency

Fed

eral

Lan

d D

evel

op

men

t A

uth

ori

ty (

FELD

A),

in

clu

din

g f

un

ds

to w

rite

off

deb

t in

tere

sts

for

FELD

A’s

sm

all s

ettl

ers,

ad

din

g t

hat

th

e ag

ency

had

bee

n

advi

sed

to

res

tru

ctu

re a

nd

del

ay p

art

of

its

deb

t.

Ap

r-19

Bio

fuel

po

licy

Bio

die

sel

Cla

imed

th

at p

alm

oil

is s

uit

able

fo

r d

irec

t b

len

din

g in

to a

viat

ion

fu

el, a

nd

th

eref

ore

ad

voca

ted

th

e o

il’s

app

rova

l by

the

Inte

rnat

ion

al C

ivil

Avi

atio

n O

rgan

izat

ion

(IC

AO

). C

urr

entl

y, IC

AO

on

ly a

ccep

ts p

alm

fat

ty

acid

dis

tilla

te a

s p

alm

oil-

bas

ed f

eed

sto

ck f

or

avia

tio

n b

iofu

el.

Ap

r-19

Exp

ort

po

licy

Palm

oil

Sup

po

rted

eff

ort

s b

y th

e co

un

try’

s p

alm

oil

ind

ust

ry t

o p

enet

rate

new

mar

kets

in S

ou

thea

st A

sia,

Afr

ica

and

Cen

tral

Asi

a, in

a b

id t

o c

ou

nte

r sl

ow

ing

gro

wth

in g

lob

al d

eman

d. R

epo

rted

ly, n

ew p

alm

oil-

bas

ed

cou

nte

rtra

de

dea

ls w

ere

sig

ned

wit

h t

he

Ru

ssia

n F

eder

atio

n, w

hile

sim

ilar

po

ssib

iliti

es w

ere

exp

lore

d in

C

hin

a, In

dia

, th

e Is

lam

ic R

epu

blic

of

Iran

, Pak

ista

n a

nd

Tu

rkey

.

Ap

r-19

Pro

du

ctio

n s

up

po

rtO

il p

alm

Esta

blis

hed

a s

oft

loan

fu

nd

tas

ked

wit

h a

ssis

tin

g s

mal

lho

lder

s in

rep

laci

ng

th

eir

un

pro

du

ctiv

e o

il p

alm

s w

ith

h

igh

er-y

ield

ing

pla

ntl

ets.

Th

e m

easu

re r

eflec

ts c

on

cern

s th

at t

he

pre

vaili

ng

dep

ress

ion

in p

alm

oil

pri

ces

cou

ld s

low

do

wn

ro

uti

ne

rep

lan

tin

g o

per

atio

ns

amo

ng

sm

allh

old

er p

rod

uce

rs.

Mal

aysi

a/C

hin

a(M

ain

lan

d)

Ap

r-19

to

Ju

n-

19

Bila

tera

l, se

cto

r- s

pec

ific

trad

e in

itia

tive

s Pa

lm o

il

Sig

ned

an

Mo

U w

her

eby

Ch

ina

wo

uld

ste

p u

p it

s p

urc

has

es o

f M

alay

sian

pal

m o

il an

d p

alm

oil-

bas

ed

pro

du

cts

ove

r th

e n

ext

5 ye

ars.

Th

e tw

o c

ou

ntr

ies

also

ag

reed

to

set

up

, in

Ch

ina,

an

avi

atio

n b

iofu

el p

lan

t,

as w

ell a

s to

dev

elo

p t

he

cou

ntr

y’s

pro

du

ctio

n o

f u

nsa

tura

ted

fat

. Fu

rth

erm

ore

, a C

hin

ese

stat

e-o

wn

ed

ente

rpri

se w

as c

ho

sen

to

res

um

e co

nst

ruct

ion

of

Mal

aysi

a’s

East

Co

ast

Rai

l Lin

k, a

lon

g w

ith

co

mm

itm

ents

b

y C

hin

a to

incr

ease

its

pu

rch

ases

of

Mal

aysi

an p

alm

oil.

Th

e tw

o c

ou

ntr

ies

also

ag

reed

to

sim

plif

y th

e p

roce

du

res

for

imp

ort

ing

Mal

aysi

an p

alm

oil

into

Ch

ina.

Ma

jor

po

licy

de

velo

pm

en

ts

42 FOOD OUTLOOKNOVEMBER 2019

CO

UN

TRY

DA

TEPO

LIC

Y D

OM

AIN

PRO

DU

CT

DES

CR

IPTI

ON

Mal

aysi

a

Jun

-19

Bio

fuel

po

licy

Bio

die

sel

Set

up

– in

vie

w o

f th

e in

crea

se in

th

e co

un

try’

s m

and

ato

ry b

iod

iese

l ble

nd

ing

rat

e fr

om

10

per

cen

t to

20

per

cen

t p

lan

ned

fo

r 20

20 –

an

inte

rmin

iste

rial

co

mm

itte

e ta

sked

wit

h m

on

ito

rin

g a

nd

en

suri

ng

th

at

do

mes

tic

cru

de

pal

m o

il p

rice

s re

mai

n s

tab

le, a

nd

th

at lo

cal b

iod

iese

l pri

ces

stay

co

mp

etit

ive.

Rep

ort

edly

, th

e co

mm

itte

e w

ou

ld lo

ok

into

th

e p

oss

ibili

ty o

f se

ttin

g u

p a

bio

die

sel s

tab

iliza

tio

n f

un

d.

Jun

-19

Man

dat

ory

cer

tifi

cati

on

(e

nvi

ron

men

tal p

olic

y)Pa

lm o

ilC

on

cern

ed a

bo

ut

del

ays

in im

ple

men

tati

on

of

Mal

aysi

a’s

man

dat

ory

su

stai

nab

le p

alm

oil

stan

dar

d,

ann

ou

nce

d a

dd

itio

nal

fin

anci

al in

cen

tive

s to

sp

eed

up

th

e ce

rtifi

cati

on

pro

cess

am

on

g s

mal

l- a

nd

med

ium

-si

zed

gro

wer

s.

Jun

-19

Exp

ort

po

licy

(var

iab

le

exp

ort

tax

)Pa

lm o

il

Exte

nd

ed t

he

susp

ensi

on

of

the

cou

ntr

y’s

slid

ing

tax

on

cru

de

pal

m o

il ex

po

rts

un

til 3

1 D

ecem

ber

201

9 –

irre

spec

tive

of

pri

ce d

evel

op

men

ts. F

irst

imp

lem

ente

d in

Sep

tem

ber

201

8 (f

ollo

win

g a

mar

ked

dec

line

in

the

com

mo

dit

y’s

wo

rld

mar

ket

pri

ce),

th

e su

spen

sio

n is

aim

ed a

t im

pro

vin

g t

he

exp

ort

co

mp

etit

iven

ess

of

Mal

aysi

an p

alm

oil

and

en

cou

rag

ing

sal

es t

o n

ew m

arke

ts, w

hile

hel

pin

g t

o lo

wer

th

e n

atio

n’s

sto

ckp

iles.

Sep

-19

Exp

ort

po

licy

Palm

ker

nel

oil

An

no

un

ced

a t

emp

ora

ry e

xpo

rt d

uty

exe

mp

tio

n f

or

cru

de

and

refi

ned

pal

m k

ern

el o

il (f

rom

1 O

cto

ber

201

9 u

nti

l 30

Jun

e 20

20),

to

sti

mu

late

exp

ort

s o

f th

e tw

o v

alu

e-ad

ded

do

wn

stre

am p

rod

uct

s.

MER

CO

SUR

/Eu

rop

ean

U

nio

nJu

n-1

9C

om

pre

hen

sive

tra

de

agre

emen

tsA

ll cr

op

s, li

vest

ock

pro

du

cts

The

EU a

nd

th

e M

ERC

OSU

R b

loc

reac

hed

ag

reem

ent

in p

rin

cip

le o

n a

co

mp

reh

ensi

ve f

ree-

trad

e tr

eaty

. Th

e ag

reem

ent

wo

uld

pro

gre

ssiv

ely

enh

ance

mar

ket

acce

ss f

or

go

od

s an

d s

ervi

ces,

wh

ile p

rom

oti

ng

co

op

erat

ion

o

n c

ust

om

s is

sues

, fo

od

saf

ety

and

su

stai

nab

le t

rad

e. N

ext

step

s in

clu

de

the

trea

ty’s

leg

al r

evis

ion

an

d

par

liam

enta

ry r

atifi

cati

on

in a

ll p

arti

cip

atin

g c

ou

ntr

ies.

Mo

zam

biq

ue/

Ind

on

esia

Au

g-1

9B

ilate

ral,

sect

or-

spec

ific

trad

e in

itia

tive

sPa

lm o

ilSi

gn

ed a

pre

fere

nti

al t

rad

e ag

reem

ent

pro

mo

tin

g b

ilate

ral t

rad

e an

d p

rovi

din

g f

or

the

gra

du

al r

emo

val

of

imp

ort

du

ties

on

nu

mer

ou

s co

mm

od

itie

s. P

rod

uct

s fo

r w

hic

h M

oza

mb

iqu

e w

ill lo

wer

its

tari

ffs

incl

ud

e In

do

nes

ian

pal

m o

il.

Nig

eria

Jun

-19

Sect

or

dev

elo

pm

ent

mea

sure

sO

il p

alm

An

no

un

ced

a c

om

pre

hen

sive

su

pp

ort

pac

kag

e ai

med

at

bo

ost

ing

do

mes

tic

pal

m o

il p

rod

uct

ion

an

d e

nd

ing

th

e n

atio

n’s

dep

end

ence

on

imp

ort

ed p

alm

oil.

Sp

ann

ing

un

til 2

027,

th

e p

acka

ge

wo

uld

incl

ud

e su

bsi

diz

ed

loan

s to

gro

wer

s, e

xten

ded

tax

bre

aks

for

oil-

pal

m p

lan

tati

on

s an

d p

roce

sso

rs, r

emo

val o

f ta

riff

reb

ates

o

n r

efin

ed p

alm

oil

imp

ort

s, a

nd

res

tric

tio

ns

on

cru

de

and

refi

ned

pal

m o

il im

po

rts

by

loca

l cru

sher

s an

d

refi

ner

s.

No

rway

Jun

-19

Bio

fuel

po

licy

Bio

die

sel

Rep

ort

ed t

hat

, in

201

8, d

om

esti

c b

iofu

el s

ales

dec

reas

ed b

y 25

per

cen

t co

mp

ared

wit

h 2

017,

pri

mar

ily

refl

ecti

ng

a s

ign

ifica

nt

dro

p in

dem

and

fo

r p

alm

oil-

bas

ed b

iod

iese

l – a

dev

elo

pm

ent

attr

ibu

ted

to

a 2

017

po

licy

chan

ge

that

ban

ned

pu

blic

pro

cure

men

t an

d u

se o

f b

iofu

el f

eed

sto

ck c

arry

ing

hig

h IL

UC

ris

ks.

Paci

fic

isla

nd

nat

ion

s

Au

g-1

9Se

cto

r d

evel

op

men

t m

easu

res

Co

con

ut

pal

m

Join

ed f

orc

es –

un

der

th

e au

spic

es o

f th

e Pa

cifi

c C

om

mu

nit

y an

d t

he

Au

stra

lian

Cen

tre

for

Inte

rnat

ion

al

Ag

ricu

ltu

ral R

esea

rch

– t

o im

ple

men

t a

5-ye

ar p

roje

ct f

or

the

safe

gu

ard

an

d d

eplo

ymen

t o

f co

con

ut

div

ersi

ty in

su

pp

ort

of

coco

nu

t-b

ased

live

liho

od

s ac

ross

th

e Pa

cifi

c re

gio

n.

Paki

stan

Oct

-19

Sect

or

dev

elo

pm

ent

mea

sure

sO

live

tree

An

no

un

ced

an

am

bit

iou

s o

live

tree

dev

elo

pm

ent

pro

gra

mm

e, t

arg

etin

g in

par

ticu

lar

smal

lho

lder

far

mer

s in

th

e co

un

try’

s d

rou

gh

t-h

it r

egio

ns,

an

d in

volv

ing

ad

van

ced

rai

nw

ater

har

vest

ing

an

d ir

rig

atio

n t

ech

niq

ues

.

The

Phili

pp

ines

/Ind

on

esia

Ap

r-19

Bila

tera

l, se

cto

r-sp

ecifi

c tr

ade

init

iati

ves

Co

con

ut

pro

du

cts

Sig

ned

a n

um

ber

of

Mo

Us

inte

nd

ed t

o e

nh

ance

tra

de

and

inve

stm

ent

bet

wee

n t

he

two

co

un

trie

s, o

f w

hic

h

on

e p

rovi

des

fo

r in

crea

sed

pu

rch

ases

of

Phili

pp

ine

coco

nu

t o

il an

d o

ther

co

con

ut

pro

du

cts

by

Ind

on

esia

n

com

pan

ies.

Oilcro

ps

43FOOD OUTLOOKNOVEMBER 2019

CO

UN

TRY

DA

TEPO

LIC

Y D

OM

AIN

PRO

DU

CT

DES

CR

IPTI

ON

The

Phili

pp

ines

Au

g-1

9Se

cto

r d

evel

op

men

t m

easu

res

Co

con

ut

pal

mPl

ans

to s

up

po

rt t

he

exp

ansi

on

in t

he

nat

ion

’s a

rea

pla

nte

d w

ith

co

con

ut

tree

s, f

ocu

sin

g o

n c

oas

tal a

reas

in

th

e co

un

try’

s n

ort

her

n p

rovi

nce

s an

d o

n p

ub

lic la

nd

s. T

he

Go

vern

men

t’s

road

map

fo

r th

e se

cto

r al

so

envi

sag

es c

om

pre

hen

sive

R&

D a

ctiv

itie

s an

d p

rom

oti

on

of

pro

du

ct d

iver

sifi

cati

on

.

Ru

ssia

n F

eder

atio

n/C

hin

a (M

ain

lan

d)

Jun

-19

Bila

tera

l, se

cto

r-sp

ecifi

c tr

ade

init

iati

ves

Sele

cted

oils

eed

s, m

eals

Sig

ned

a b

ilate

ral p

roto

col o

n p

hyt

osa

nit

ary

stan

dar

ds

aim

ed a

t fa

cilit

atin

g e

xpo

rts

of

a n

um

ber

of

pro

du

cts

– in

clu

din

g s

oyb

ean

s, r

apes

eed

an

d s

un

flo

wer

see

d m

eal –

fro

m t

he

Ru

ssia

n F

eder

atio

n t

o C

hin

a.

Ru

ssia

n F

eder

atio

nJu

l-19

Tax

po

licy

Palm

oil

An

no

un

ced

th

at, f

rom

1 O

cto

ber

201

9, p

alm

oil

sale

s w

ou

ld b

e su

bje

ct t

o t

he

reg

ula

r V

AT

rate

of

20 p

erce

nt,

th

us

end

ing

th

e ex

isti

ng

pre

fere

nti

al t

axat

ion

at

10 p

erce

nt

– a

mea

sure

aim

ed a

t su

pp

ort

ing

th

e co

un

try’

s d

airy

ind

ust

ry, w

hic

h h

as s

een

fo

od

man

ufa

ctu

rers

’ dem

and

fo

r it

s p

rod

uct

s d

eclin

e as

su

pp

lies

of

low

-pri

ced

im

po

rted

pal

m o

il ro

se.

Sin

gap

ore

May

-19

Foo

d s

afet

y m

easu

res

Tran

s fa

tty

acid

An

no

un

ced

a b

an, f

rom

Ju

ne

2021

, on

par

tial

ly h

ydro

gen

ated

oils

(PH

Os)

as

ing

red

ien

ts in

all

foo

d p

rod

uct

s so

ld in

th

e co

un

try

– w

het

her

man

ufa

ctu

red

loca

lly o

r im

po

rted

. Gen

erat

ed w

hen

pla

nt

oils

are

pro

cess

ed,

PHO

s re

pre

sen

t th

e p

rim

ary

die

tary

so

urc

e o

f h

arm

ful t

ran

sfat

s in

fo

od

pro

du

cts.

Spai

n

Jun

-19

Mar

ket

reg

ula

tio

nO

live

oil

Sup

po

rted

a p

rop

osa

l by

the

cou

ntr

y’s

oliv

e o

il in

du

stry

to

sel

f-re

gu

late

th

e d

om

esti

c o

live

oil

mar

ket.

A

imed

at

stab

ilizi

ng

su

pp

lies

and

pri

ces

at n

atio

nal

leve

l, th

e p

rop

ose

d m

ech

anis

m w

ou

ld in

clu

de

mar

ket

inte

rven

tio

ns

wh

en s

urp

lus/

sho

rtag

e co

nd

itio

ns

dev

elo

p.

Oct

-19

Sect

or

dev

elo

pm

ent

mea

sure

s O

live

tree

Intr

od

uce

d a

ces

s to

be

colle

cted

fro

m p

rod

uce

rs a

nd

op

erat

ors

acr

oss

th

e o

live

oil

sect

or,

wit

h t

he

ob

ject

ive

of

fin

anci

ng

pro

mo

tio

nal

act

ivit

ies,

alo

ng

wit

h m

arke

t st

ud

ies

and

R&

D p

rog

ram

mes

fo

cusi

ng

on

te

chn

olo

gic

al in

no

vati

on

. Th

e in

itia

tive

has

bee

n t

rig

ger

ed b

y a

pro

lon

ged

dec

line

in p

rice

s.

Sri L

anka

Feb

-19

Foo

d s

afet

y m

easu

res

Co

con

ut

oil

Info

rmed

th

at a

ll co

con

ut

oil

sold

in t

he

do

mes

tic

coo

kin

g o

il m

arke

t w

ou

ld b

e su

bje

ct t

o s

tric

t q

ual

ity

con

tro

ls, a

s w

ell a

s m

and

ato

ry c

erti

fica

tio

n a

nd

lab

ellin

g, w

ith

a v

iew

to

co

mb

atin

g p

rod

uct

ad

ult

erat

ion

an

d r

edu

cin

g in

toxi

cati

on

ris

ks.

Thai

lan

dM

ay-1

9B

iofu

el p

olic

yB

iod

iese

l

Pres

ided

ove

r th

e co

mm

erci

al la

un

ch o

f B

10 a

nd

B20

(i.e

. tra

nsp

ort

die

sel c

on

tain

ing

res

pec

tive

ly 1

0 an

d

20 p

erce

nt

of

pal

m o

il m

eth

yl e

ster

), a

nd

an

no

un

ced

pla

ns

to r

aise

th

e co

un

try’

s m

and

ato

ry b

len

din

g r

ate

fro

m t

he

pre

vaili

ng

7 p

erce

nt

to 1

0 p

erce

nt.

Th

e en

visa

ged

sh

ift

is a

imed

at

abso

rbin

g s

urp

lus

pal

m o

il p

rod

uct

ion

, th

ereb

y su

pp

ort

ing

pri

ces

of

fres

h p

alm

nu

ts a

nd

cru

de

pal

m o

il.

Thai

lan

dA

ug

-19

Pro

du

ctio

n s

up

po

rtO

il p

alm

Ap

pro

ved

a p

rice

su

pp

ort

pac

kag

e to

ass

ist

oil-

pal

m g

row

ers

affe

cted

by

dep

ress

ed f

arm

gat

e p

rice

s. U

nd

er

the

sch

eme,

reg

iste

red

oil-

pal

m f

arm

ers

wo

uld

rec

eive

cas

h c

om

pen

sati

on

s w

hen

th

e m

arke

t p

rice

fo

r fr

esh

p

alm

fru

it d

rop

s b

elo

w a

gu

aran

teed

leve

l of

THB

4 p

er k

g (

USD

132

per

to

nn

e).

Thai

lan

d/C

hin

a(M

ain

lan

d)

Sep

-19

Bila

tera

l, se

cto

r-sp

ecifi

c tr

ade

init

iati

ves

Palm

ker

nel

exp

elle

r Si

gn

ed a

n M

oU

allo

win

g C

hin

a to

pro

mo

te t

he

imp

ort

of

pal

m k

ern

el e

xpel

ler

(to

be

use

d a

s an

imal

fee

d)

fro

m T

hai

lan

d. T

he

init

iati

ve c

om

ple

men

ts o

ther

eff

ort

s b

y C

hin

a to

div

ersi

fy it

s d

om

esti

c fe

ed s

up

ply

ch

ain

.

Thai

lan

d

Oct

-19

Bio

fuel

po

licy

Bio

die

sel

Intr

od

uce

d s

ub

sid

ies

for

the

pro

du

ctio

n a

nd

sal

e o

f d

iese

l co

nta

inin

g 1

0 o

r 20

per

cen

t o

f p

alm

oil-

bas

ed

bio

die

sel –

in s

up

po

rt o

f th

e p

lan

ned

sh

ift

to m

and

ato

ry s

ales

of

10 p

erce

nt-

ble

nd

s fr

om

1 J

anu

ary

2020

.

Ma

jor

po

licy

de

velo

pm

en

ts

44 FOOD OUTLOOKNOVEMBER 2019

CO

UN

TRY

DA

TEPO

LIC

Y D

OM

AIN

PRO

DU

CT

DES

CR

IPTI

ON

Turk

eyJu

l-19

Imp

ort

po

licy

Sun

flo

wer

see

dR

aise

d t

he

cou

ntr

y’s

imp

ort

tar

iff

for

sun

flo

wer

see

d t

o 2

0 p

erce

nt.

Th

e d

uty

had

bee

n t

emp

ora

rily

low

ered

to

13

per

cen

t in

Ju

ne

2018

, wit

h a

vie

w t

o s

up

po

rtin

g d

om

esti

c cr

ush

op

erat

ion

s. T

he

hig

her

du

ty is

set

to

re

mai

n in

pla

ce u

nti

l en

d-J

anu

ary

2020

.

Un

ited

Sta

tes

of

Am

eric

a

May

-19

Pro

du

ctio

n s

up

po

rt

(tra

de

mit

igat

ion

m

easu

re)

Gra

ins,

oils

eed

s

An

no

un

ced

, fo

r th

e se

con

d y

ear

in s

ucc

essi

on

, an

aid

pac

kag

e fo

r fa

rmer

s af

fect

ed b

y m

arke

t d

isru

pti

on

s d

ue

to t

arif

fs im

po

sed

by

trad

ing

par

tner

s. T

he

pac

kag

e w

ou

ld c

on

sist

of

a M

arke

t Fa

cilit

atio

n P

rog

ram

(p

rovi

din

g c

ash

pay

men

ts t

o e

ligib

le f

arm

ers)

an

d w

ou

ld b

e co

mp

lem

ente

d b

y a

Foo

d P

urc

has

e an

d

Dis

trib

uti

on

Pro

gra

m (

task

ed w

ith

pu

rch

asin

g s

urp

lus

com

mo

dit

ies

for

dis

trib

uti

on

th

rou

gh

exi

stin

g s

oci

al

assi

stan

ce s

chem

es),

an

d a

n A

gri

cult

ura

l Tra

de

Pro

mo

tio

n P

rog

ram

(to

pro

mo

te t

he

dev

elo

pm

ent

of

new

ex

po

rt m

arke

ts o

n b

ehal

f o

f p

rod

uce

rs).

May

-19

Pest

icid

e re

gu

lati

on

Gly

ph

osa

teR

epo

rted

a t

hir

d c

on

secu

tive

co

urt

ver

dic

t ag

ain

st t

he

man

ufa

ctu

rer

of

Ro

un

du

p, t

he

gly

ph

osa

te-b

ased

h

erb

icid

e al

leg

ed t

o c

ause

can

cer.

Acc

ord

ing

to

th

e ju

ry, t

he

her

bic

ide

was

def

ecti

vely

des

ign

ed a

nd

th

e m

anu

fact

ure

r ac

ted

neg

ligen

tly

and

fai

led

to

war

n c

on

sum

ers

abo

ut

po

ssib

le c

ance

r ri

sks.

Un

ited

Sta

tes

of

Am

eric

a/C

hin

a(M

ain

lan

d)

May

-19

to O

ct-

19

Co

mp

reh

ensi

ve t

rad

e n

ego

tiat

ion

s So

ybea

ns,

oth

er o

ilcro

ps

and

d

eriv

ed p

rod

uct

s

Mo

ved

fo

rwar

d d

isco

nti

nu

ou

sly

wit

h t

rad

e ta

lks

that

co

mm

ence

d in

mid

-201

8. In

May

, fo

llow

ing

a

tem

po

rary

hal

t in

neg

oti

atio

ns,

th

e tw

o c

ou

ntr

ies

intr

od

uce

d a

dd

itio

nal

tra

de

mea

sure

s af

fect

ing

th

eir

resp

ecti

ve im

po

rts:

wh

ile t

he

US

rais

ed im

po

rt t

arif

fs o

n U

SD 2

00 b

illio

n w

ort

h o

f C

hin

ese

go

od

s fr

om

10

per

cen

t to

25

per

cen

t, C

hin

a in

crea

sed

tax

atio

n o

n U

S im

po

rts

wo

rth

USD

60

bill

ion

to

10–

25 p

erce

nt.

In

bo

th c

ases

, co

mm

od

itie

s af

fect

ed in

clu

de

a n

um

ber

of

oilc

rop

s an

d d

eriv

ed p

rod

uct

s, t

ran

sact

ion

s o

f w

hic

h, h

ow

ever

, hav

e b

een

mo

des

t in

rec

ent

year

s. F

ollo

win

g a

tem

po

rary

tru

ce, i

n A

ug

ust

, neg

oti

atio

ns

stal

led

ag

ain

, lea

din

g b

oth

co

un

trie

s to

an

no

un

ce im

ple

men

tati

on

of

add

itio

nal

ret

alia

tory

tar

iffs

on

eac

h

oth

er’s

exp

ort

s fr

om

Sep

tem

ber

. In

th

e ca

se o

f C

hin

a, t

he

list

of

com

mo

dit

ies

affe

cted

wo

uld

incl

ud

e U

S-o

rig

in s

oyb

ean

s, w

hic

h w

ou

ld b

ear

add

itio

nal

tar

iffs

of

5–10

per

cen

t. W

hen

tra

de

talk

s re

sum

ed in

mid

-Se

pte

mb

er, t

he

US

ple

dg

ed t

o p

ost

po

ne

an in

crea

se in

ret

alia

tory

tar

iffs

sch

edu

led

fo

r O

cto

ber

, wh

ile C

hin

a co

mm

itte

d t

o r

esu

me

pu

rch

ases

of

US

agri

cult

ura

l go

od

s, in

clu

din

g s

oyb

ean

s. M

ore

sp

ecifi

cally

, Ch

ina’

s tr

ade

auth

ori

ties

su

cces

sive

ly a

lloca

ted

sp

ecia

l im

po

rt q

uo

tas

for

soyb

ean

s –

com

pri

sin

g w

aive

rs o

f th

e re

leva

nt

reta

liato

ry t

arif

fs –

to

a n

um

ber

of

stat

e-ru

n, p

riva

te a

s w

ell a

s fo

reig

n-o

wn

ed b

usi

nes

ses.

Acc

ord

ing

to

th

e U

SDA

, by

mid

-Oct

ob

er, s

oyb

ean

sal

es t

o C

hin

a (f

or

del

iver

y in

th

e 20

19/2

0 m

arke

tin

g y

ear)

had

rea

ched

5.7

m

illio

n t

on

nes

, wh

ich

co

mp

ares

wit

h 1

.0 m

illio

n t

on

nes

a y

ear

earl

ier.

Ho

wev

er, w

ith

co

mp

reh

ensi

ve t

rad

e n

ego

tiat

ion

s st

ill u

nd

er w

ay, C

hin

a re

frai

ned

fro

m c

om

mit

tin

g t

o a

sp

ecifi

c, t

ime-

bo

un

d v

olu

me

of

US-

ori

gin

so

ybea

n p

urc

has

es.

Un

ited

Sta

tes

of

Am

eric

a

Jun

-19

Farm

er r

elie

f m

easu

res

Gra

ins,

oils

eed

sLa

un

ched

th

e D

isas

ter

Rel

ief

Act

to

co

mp

ensa

te f

arm

ers

imp

acte

d b

y n

atu

ral d

isas

ters

th

rou

gh

ou

t 20

18 a

nd

20

19.

Jun

-19

GM

O p

olic

yG

M c

rop

sD

irec

ted

co

nce

rned

fed

eral

ag

enci

es t

o e

ase

rule

s fo

r ap

pro

vin

g G

M c

rop

s an

d r

elat

ed a

gri

cult

ura

l b

iote

chn

olo

gy.

Th

e m

od

ified

rev

iew

pro

cess

aim

s at

avo

idin

g d

elay

s, r

edu

cin

g d

evel

op

er c

ost

s, e

nab

ling

p

red

icta

bili

ty a

nd

fac

ilita

tin

g t

he

dev

elo

pm

ent

of

GM

pla

nts

th

at d

o n

ot

po

se p

lan

t p

est

risk

s.

Jul-

19B

iofu

el p

olic

yB

iod

iese

lPu

blis

hed

dra

ft m

inim

um

am

ou

nts

of

ren

ewab

le f

uel

s th

at w

ou

ld n

eed

to

be

sup

plie

d t

o t

he

mar

ket

in

2020

, as

wel

l as

dra

ft b

len

din

g o

blig

atio

ns

for

bio

mas

s-b

ased

bio

die

sel i

n 2

021.

Jul-

19Im

po

rt p

olic

y/b

iofu

el

po

licy

Bio

die

sel

Prel

imin

arily

det

erm

ined

th

e fo

llow

ing

wit

h r

esp

ect

to t

he

anti

-du

mp

ing

an

d c

ou

nte

rvai

ling

du

ties

ap

plie

d

to im

po

rts

of

bio

die

sel f

rom

Arg

enti

na:

i)

that

rec

ent

chan

ges

in A

rgen

tin

a’s

exp

ort

tax

reg

ime

had

led

to

a

cutb

ack

in t

he

cou

ntr

y’s

sub

sid

ies,

hen

ce w

arra

nti

ng

a r

edu

ctio

n in

th

e U

S co

un

terv

ailin

g r

ates

; an

d ii

) th

at

circ

um

stan

ces

war

ran

tin

g c

han

ges

did

no

t ex

ist

in r

esp

ect

of

the

US

anti

-du

mp

ing

du

ties

.

Oilcro

ps

45FOOD OUTLOOKNOVEMBER 2019

CO

UN

TRY

DA

TEPO

LIC

Y D

OM

AIN

PRO

DU

CT

DES

CR

IPTI

ON

Un

ited

Sta

tes

of

Am

eric

a

Au

g-1

9G

MO

po

licy

GM

cro

ps

Au

tho

rize

d t

he

com

mer

cial

izat

ion

of

a ra

pes

eed

var

iety

ric

h in

om

ega-

3 fa

tty

acid

s an

d a

dro

ug

ht-

tole

ran

t so

ybea

n v

arie

ty d

evel

op

ed in

Arg

enti

na.

Au

g-1

9Fa

rmer

rel

ief

mea

sure

sG

rain

s, o

ilsee

ds

Rel

ease

d t

he

Fam

ily F

arm

er R

elie

f A

ct o

f 20

19, w

ith

a v

iew

to

hel

pin

g t

o a

void

mas

s liq

uid

atio

ns

and

fu

rth

er

con

solid

atio

n in

th

e ag

ricu

ltu

re s

ecto

r, as

far

mer

s ar

e fa

ced

wit

h d

eclin

es in

net

far

m in

com

es a

nd

an

in

crea

sin

gly

un

pre

dic

tab

le t

rad

e en

viro

nm

ent.

Au

g-1

9 to

Sep

-19

Farm

er r

elie

f m

easu

res

Gra

ins,

oils

eed

s

Dec

ided

to

def

er t

he

accr

ual

of

inte

rest

on

far

mer

s’ in

sura

nce

pre

miu

ms

for

the

spri

ng

201

9 cr

op

yea

r. Th

e m

easu

re s

eeks

to

eas

e th

e co

nse

qu

ence

s o

f d

elay

ed o

r p

reve

nte

d p

lan

tin

gs,

as

wel

l as

red

uce

d c

rop

yie

lds

cau

sed

by

seve

re fl

oo

din

g o

r ex

trem

e d

rou

gh

t co

nd

itio

ns

in 2

019.

Fu

rth

erm

ore

, to

p-u

p p

aym

ents

hav

e b

een

g

ran

ted

to

pro

du

cers

par

tici

pat

ing

in f

eder

al c

rop

insu

ran

ce, w

ho

se p

lan

tin

gs

wer

e p

reve

nte

d b

y fl

oo

din

g

and

exc

ess

mo

istu

re.

Sep

-19

Mar

ket

reg

ula

tio

n/f

oo

d

stan

dar

ds

Oliv

e o

ilA

nn

ou

nce

d n

ew m

and

ato

ry la

bel

ling

req

uir

emen

ts f

or

larg

e-sc

ale

pro

du

cers

in t

he

stat

e o

f C

alif

orn

ia. T

he

new

lab

els

wo

uld

be

aim

ed a

t b

ette

r in

form

ing

co

nsu

mer

s ab

ou

t th

e p

rove

nan

ce a

nd

qu

alit

y o

f o

live

oil.

Oct

-19

Sect

or

dev

elo

pm

ent

mea

sure

sR

apes

eed

Ap

pro

ved

fu

nd

ing

fo

r a

rese

arch

an

d e

xten

sio

n p

roje

ct a

imed

at

enh

anci

ng

rap

esee

d p

rod

uct

ion

an

d

pro

fita

bili

ty in

th

e n

ort

h-c

entr

al p

art

of

the

cou

ntr

y.

Oct

-19

Bio

fuel

po

licy

Bio

fuel

Pr

op

ose

d a

nd

so

ug

ht

com

men

ts o

n a

dju

stm

ents

to

th

e w

ay t

hat

an

nu

al r

enew

able

fu

el b

len

din

g o

blig

atio

ns

are

det

erm

ined

in t

he

futu

re. M

ore

sp

ecifi

cally

, co

mm

ents

wer

e in

vite

d o

n a

pro

po

sed

mec

han

ism

to

off

set

smal

l refi

ner

y ex

emp

tio

ns

wh

en d

eter

min

ing

fu

ture

ble

nd

ing

ob

ligat

ion

s.

Oct

-19

Imp

ort

po

licy

(tra

de

dis

pu

te)

Oliv

e o

il

Pub

lish

ed a

list

of

pro

du

cts

imp

ort

ed f

rom

th

e Eu

rop

ean

Un

ion

th

at w

ou

ld a

ttra

ct c

orr

ecti

ve t

arif

fs a

s o

f 18

O

cto

ber

201

9, in

ret

alia

tio

n f

or

sub

sid

ies

– ru

led

ille

git

imat

e b

y th

e W

TO –

th

at t

he

EU h

ad p

rovi

ded

to

its

avia

tio

n in

du

stry

. Th

e lis

t in

clu

des

vir

gin

an

d n

on

-vir

gin

oliv

e o

il p

rod

uce

d in

Sp

ain

an

d s

old

in c

on

tain

ers

of

up

to

18

kg.

Vie

t N

am/E

uro

pea

n

Un

ion

Jun

-19

Co

mp

reh

ensi

ve t

rad

e ag

reem

ents

Sele

cted

gra

ins,

oils

eed

sV

iet

Nam

an

d t

he

EU s

ign

ed a

Fre

e Tr

ade

Ag

reem

ent

that

wo

uld

lift

tar

iffs

on

99

per

cen

t o

f g

oo

ds

trad

ed,

incl

ud

ing

wh

eat,

ric

e, m

aize

an

d s

oyb

ean

pro

du

cts.

Th

e d

eal w

ill c

om

e in

to f

orc

e o

nce

it is

rat

ified

by

law

mak

ers

on

bo

th s

ides

.

Vie

t N

am

Sep

-19

GM

O p

olic

ies

Soyb

ean

sA

pp

rove

d t

he

imp

ort

atio

n o

f tw

o n

ew G

M h

erb

icid

e-to

lera

nt

soyb

ean

eve

nts

, th

ereb

y p

rovi

din

g a

ssu

ran

ce

to p

rod

uce

rs in

exp

ort

ing

co

un

trie

s th

at t

rad

e in

th

ese

vari

etie

s ca

n c

on

tin

ue.

Inte

rgo

vern

men

tal

Jul-

19Fo

od

sta

nd

ard

sV

eget

able

oils

The

WH

O/F

AO

Co

dex

Alim

enta

riu

s C

om

mis

sio

n a

pp

rove

d a

nu

mb

er o

f re

visi

on

s to

its

Stan

dar

d f

or

Nam

ed V

eget

able

Oils

, co

nce

rnin

g, i

nte

r al

ia, h

igh

-ole

ic p

alm

oil,

vir

gin

pal

m o

il, c

rud

e p

alm

ker

nel

oil,

p

alm

su

per

ole

in, a

nd

flax

/lin

seed

oil.

Mo

reo

ver,

the

bo

dy

issu

ed a

co

de

of

pra

ctic

e fo

r th

e re

du

ctio

n o

f 3-

mo

no

chlo

rop

rop

aned

iol (

3-M

CPD

est

ers)

an

d g

lyci

dyl

est

ers

(GEs

) in

refi

ned

oils

an

d f

oo

d p

rod

uct

s m

ade

wit

h r

efin

ed o

ils.

Au

g-1

9Pe

stic

ide

reg

ula

tio

nX

ylel

la f

asti

dio

sa

FAO

su

pp

ort

ed p

reve

nti

ve m

easu

res

in A

lger

ia, E

gyp

t, L

eban

on

, Lib

ya, M

oro

cco

an

d T

un

isia

to

mit

igat

e th

e p

ote

nti

al t

hre

at o

f th

e xy

lella

fas

tid

iosa

dis

ease

. Ap

ply

ing

mo

der

n d

etec

tio

n t

ech

no

log

ies,

co

un

trie

s re

ceiv

ed a

ssis

tan

ce in

tes

tin

g im

po

rted

pla

nti

ng

mat

eria

ls in

a m

ore

acc

ura

te, e

con

om

ical

an

d s

imp

lified

w

ay. F

urt

her

mo

re, i

nd

ust

ry s

take

ho

lder

s re

ceiv

ed t

rain

ing

on

imp

rove

d s

urv

eilla

nce

, dia

gn

osi

s an

d

man

agem

ent

pra

ctic

es, w

hile

loca

l au

tho

riti

es w

ere

pro

vid

ed w

ith

su

pp

ort

reg

ard

ing

ph

yto

san

itar

y le

gis

lati

on

, po

rt in

spec

tio

n r

ule

s an

d t

he

form

ula

tio

n o

f co

nti

ng

ency

pla

ns.

* A

det

aile

d de

scrip

tion

of m

ajor

pol

icy

deve

lopm

ents

sta

rtin

g in

Jan

uary

201

1 is

ava

ilabl

e at

:

http

://w

ww

.fao

.org

/eco

nom

ic/e

st/e

st-c

omm

oditi

es/c

omm

odity

-pol

icy-

arch

ive/

en/?

grou

pAN

Dco

mm

odity

=O

ilsee

ds,%

20oi

ls%

20an

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Ma

jor

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licy

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velo

pm

en

ts

46 FOOD OUTLOOKNOVEMBER 2019

MEA

T:

MA

JOR

POLI

CY D

EVEL

OPM

ENTS

: MID

-APR

IL T

O M

ID-O

CTO

BER

2019

*

CO

UN

TRY

DA

TEPR

OD

UC

TPO

LIC

Y IN

STR

UM

ENT

DES

CR

IPTI

ON

Arg

enti

na

Ap

r-19

Pig

mea

t Tr

ade

agre

emen

tA

nn

ou

nce

d a

dea

l wit

h C

hin

ese

auth

ori

ties

to

exp

ort

pig

mea

t to

Ch

ina

fro

m 2

5 o

f th

e co

un

try'

s m

eatp

acki

ng

p

lan

ts.

Sep

-19

All

Trad

e ag

reem

ent

An

no

un

ced

th

at, a

fter

a fi

rst

ship

men

t in

Ju

ne,

15

Arg

enti

nia

n m

eat

pro

cess

ing

pla

nts

wer

e cl

eare

d t

o s

up

ply

b

ovi

ne

and

po

ult

ry m

eat

to C

hin

a.

Bra

zil

Sep

-19

All

Mar

ket

acce

ssA

nn

ou

nce

d t

hat

25

mea

t p

roce

ssin

g p

lan

ts in

th

e co

un

try

hav

e re

ceiv

ed a

uth

ori

zati

on

to

exp

ort

to

Ch

ina.

Can

ada

May

-19

All

Tari

ff li

fted

Lift

ed t

arif

f o

n U

S b

ovi

ne

and

pig

mea

t, u

nd

er a

dea

l sig

ned

wit

h t

he

Un

ited

Sta

tes

to r

emo

ve it

s ta

riff

s o

n s

teel

an

d a

lum

iniu

m im

po

rts

fro

m C

anad

a.

Jun

-19

All

Exp

ort

ban

Ag

reed

to

su

spen

d p

erm

its

for

mea

t ex

po

rts

to C

hin

a af

ter

a re

qu

est

fro

m C

hin

ese

auth

ori

ties

du

e to

a d

etec

ted

ca

se o

f ra

cto

pam

ine,

a f

eed

ad

dit

ive

ban

ned

in C

hin

a.

Ch

ina

(Mai

nla

nd

)

Ap

r-19

Pig

mea

t Im

po

rt b

anA

nn

ou

nce

d a

n im

po

rt b

an o

n m

eat

pro

du

cts

der

ived

fro

m p

igs

and

wild

bo

ars

fro

m C

amb

od

ia, a

fter

det

ecti

on

of

a ca

se o

f A

fric

an S

win

e Fe

ver

(ASF

).

Jun

-19

Pig

mea

t Im

po

rt b

anA

nn

ou

nce

d a

n im

po

rt b

an o

n m

eat

pro

du

cts

der

ived

fro

m p

igs

and

wild

bo

ars

fro

m t

he

Lao

Peo

ple

’s D

emo

crat

ic

Rep

ub

lic d

ue

to A

SF o

utb

reak

s re

po

rted

by

the

cou

ntr

y.

Au

g-1

9Pi

g m

eat

Imp

ort

ban

An

no

un

ced

an

imp

ort

ban

on

mea

t p

rod

uct

s d

eriv

ed f

rom

pig

s an

d w

ild b

oar

s fr

om

Mya

nm

ar d

ue

to c

on

cern

s o

ver

ASF

.

Au

g-1

9Pi

g m

eat

Imp

ort

ban

An

no

un

ced

an

imp

ort

ban

on

mea

t p

rod

uct

s d

eriv

ed f

rom

pig

s an

d w

ild b

oar

s fr

om

Slo

vaki

a, a

fter

a c

ase

of

ASF

w

as d

etec

ted

in a

bac

kyar

d s

win

e h

erd

.

Au

g-1

9A

llTa

riff

An

no

un

ced

an

ext

ra 1

0 p

erce

nt

tari

ff o

n b

ovi

ne

and

pig

mea

t im

po

rts

fro

m t

he

Un

ited

Sta

tes,

sta

rtin

g f

rom

Se

pte

mb

er 1

, 201

9. T

his

is in

ad

dit

ion

to

th

e 25

per

cen

t re

talia

tory

tar

iff

imp

ose

d b

y C

hin

a o

n m

eat

imp

ort

s fr

om

th

e U

nit

ed S

tate

s in

Ju

ly 2

018.

Sep

-19

Pig

mea

t Pr

od

uct

ion

su

pp

ort

An

no

un

ced

th

e im

ple

men

tati

on

of

a se

ries

of

po

licie

s ai

med

at

sup

po

rtin

g n

atio

nal

pig

mea

t p

rod

uct

ion

, in

clu

din

g

sub

sid

ies

for

con

stru

ctin

g la

rge

pig

far

ms

and

sim

plif

yin

g p

roce

du

res

for

ob

tain

ing

an

d r

edu

cin

g t

he

cost

of

lan

d

for

pig

far

ms.

Sep

-19

Bo

vin

e m

eat

Mar

ket

acce

ssA

pp

rove

d im

po

rts

of

bo

vin

e m

eat

fro

m t

hre

e U

krai

nia

n p

lan

ts.

Sep

-19

Bo

vin

e m

eat

Mar

ket

acce

ssA

uth

ori

zed

firs

t b

ovi

ne

mea

t im

po

rts

fro

m L

ith

uan

ia f

ollo

win

g a

n a

ud

it b

y C

hin

ese

insp

ecto

rs.

Sep

-19

Pig

mea

t Im

po

rt b

anB

ann

ed p

ig m

eat

imp

ort

s fr

om

th

e R

epu

blic

of

Ko

rea

ove

r A

SF c

on

cern

s.

Egyp

t M

ay-1

9B

ovi

ne

mea

tIm

po

rt p

olic

yD

elis

ted

all

com

pan

ies

that

pro

vid

ed h

alal

cer

tifi

cati

on

fo

r U

S b

ovi

ne

mea

t ex

po

rts

and

ob

ligat

ed e

xpo

rter

s to

o

bta

in t

he

hal

al c

erti

fica

te f

rom

a s

ing

le c

om

pan

y.

47FOOD OUTLOOKNOVEMBER 2019

Me

at

CO

UN

TRY

DA

TEPR

OD

UC

TPO

LIC

Y IN

STR

UM

ENT

DES

CR

IPTI

ON

Esw

atin

i Ju

n-1

9Pi

g m

eat

Imp

ort

ban

Ban

ned

imp

ort

s o

f liv

e p

igs

fro

m S

ou

th A

fric

a af

ter

a re

po

rted

ou

tbre

ak o

f A

SF.

Euro

pea

n U

nio

n

Ap

r-19

All

Imp

ort

po

licy

Ag

reed

on

a s

erie

s o

f ch

ang

es t

o r

ule

s o

n im

po

rts

of

anim

al p

rod

uct

s fr

om

co

un

trie

s in

clu

din

g A

rgen

tin

a, t

he

Ru

ssia

n F

eder

atio

n a

nd

Eg

ypt.

In t

he

case

of

Arg

enti

na,

th

e Eu

rop

ean

Un

ion

(EU

) h

as a

gre

ed t

o a

llow

fre

sh b

on

e-in

m

eat

fro

m ‘P

atag

on

ia N

ort

e A

’, a

reg

ion

dec

lare

d f

ree

fro

m f

oo

t-an

d-m

ou

th d

isea

se (

FMD

).

Jun

-19

All

Trad

e ag

reem

ent

Sig

ned

a t

rad

e ag

reem

ent

and

an

inve

stm

ent

pro

tect

ion

ag

reem

ent

wit

h V

iet

Nam

on

30

Jun

e 20

19, a

imed

at

gra

nti

ng

pre

fere

nti

al t

reat

men

t fo

r g

oo

ds

and

ser

vice

s an

d e

limin

atin

g n

on

-tar

iff

bar

rier

s en

cou

nte

red

by

bo

th

sid

es. F

or

the

mea

t se

cto

r, th

e ag

reem

ents

off

er d

uty

-fre

e ac

cess

into

Vie

t N

am f

or

EU f

roze

n p

ig m

eat

afte

r 7

year

s, a

nd

pro

vid

e fo

r p

ou

ltry

mea

t to

be

fully

lib

eral

ized

aft

er 1

0 ye

ars.

Jun

-19

All

Trad

e ag

reem

ent

Rea

ched

an

ag

reem

ent

wit

h S

ou

ther

n C

om

mo

n M

arke

t (M

ERC

OSU

R),

co

mp

risi

ng

Arg

enti

na,

Bra

zil,

Para

gu

ay a

nd

U

rug

uay

, aim

ed a

t re

mo

vin

g t

he

maj

ori

ty o

f ta

riff

s, s

imp

lifyi

ng

cu

sto

ms

pro

ced

ure

s an

d p

rote

ctin

g g

eog

rap

hic

al

ind

icat

ors

. In

th

e m

eat

sect

or,

MER

CO

SUR

co

un

trie

s w

ill c

om

man

d a

42.

5 p

erce

nt

shar

e o

f th

e n

ew 9

9 00

0 to

nn

e an

nu

al q

uo

ta f

or

bo

vin

e m

eat

exp

ort

s to

EU

mem

ber

co

un

trie

s, w

ith

a t

arif

f ra

te o

f 7.

5 p

erce

nt.

On

ce

imp

lem

ente

d, t

he

agre

emen

t w

ill r

edu

ce t

he

bo

vin

e m

eat

qu

ota

levy

, kn

ow

n a

s th

e H

ilto

n q

uo

ta, f

rom

20

per

cen

t to

zer

o.

Au

g-1

9B

ovi

ne

mea

tTr

ade

agre

emen

t

Sig

ned

an

ag

reem

ent

wit

h t

he

Un

ited

Sta

tes,

rev

iew

ing

th

e fu

nct

ion

ing

of

the

exis

tin

g q

uo

ta t

o im

po

rt h

orm

on

e-fr

ee b

eef

into

th

e EU

. Th

e ag

reem

ent

esta

blis

hes

th

at 3

5 00

0 to

nn

es o

f th

e n

on

-ho

rmo

ne

trea

ted

qu

ota

ou

t o

f th

e to

tal o

f 45

 000

will

be

allo

cate

d t

o t

he

US,

ph

ased

ove

r a

7-ye

ar p

erio

d, w

ith

th

e re

mai

nin

g a

mo

un

t m

ade

avai

lab

le

to a

ll o

ther

exp

ort

ers.

Ind

on

esia

A

ug

-19

All

Imp

ort

ban

lift

edR

eop

ened

its

mar

ket

to s

hip

men

ts o

f b

ovi

ne

and

po

ult

ry m

eat

fro

m B

razi

l, fo

llow

ing

a r

ulin

g b

y th

e d

isp

ute

se

ttle

men

t b

od

y o

f th

e W

orl

d T

rad

e O

rgan

izat

ion

in f

avo

ur

of

Bra

zil.

Jap

an

May

-19

All

Tari

ff r

ate

qu

ota

An

no

un

ced

th

e sa

feg

uar

d (

SG)

trig

ger

leve

ls f

or

bo

vin

e an

d p

ig m

eat

for

the

fou

rth

qu

arte

r o

f Ja

pan

ese

fisc

al y

ear

2019

(Ja

nu

ary

2020

–Mar

ch 2

020)

. Th

e b

ovi

ne

mea

t SG

tri

gg

er is

set

at

117

per

cen

t o

f th

e p

revi

ou

s ye

ar’s

tra

de,

w

hile

th

e p

ig m

eat

SG t

rig

ger

leve

l is

set

at 1

19 p

erce

nt

of

the

aver

age

of

the

thre

e p

revi

ou

s ye

ars

of

trad

e.

May

-19

Bo

vin

e m

eat

Mar

ket

acce

ssLi

fted

th

e ag

e re

stri

ctio

n o

n C

anad

ian

bo

vin

e m

eat

exp

ort

s. U

nd

er t

he

rule

in p

lace

sin

ce 2

003

afte

r th

e d

etec

tio

n

of

bo

vin

e sp

on

gif

orm

en

cep

hal

op

ath

y (B

SE),

Jap

an o

nly

imp

ort

ed b

ovi

ne

mea

t d

eriv

ed f

rom

cat

tle

less

th

an 3

0 m

on

ths-

old

.

Jul-

19O

vin

e m

eat

Mar

ket

acce

ssA

uth

ori

zed

imp

ort

s o

f o

vin

e m

eat

fro

m Ir

elan

d.

Jul-

19Po

ult

ry m

eat

Imp

ort

ban

Imp

ose

d a

tem

po

rary

ban

on

imp

ort

s o

f p

ou

ltry

mea

t an

d e

gg

s fr

om

Den

mar

k, f

ollo

win

g a

rec

ent

ou

tbre

ak o

f lo

w

pat

ho

gen

ic a

vian

flu

(LP

AI)

.

Sep

-19

Pou

ltry

mea

tIm

po

rt b

anSu

spen

ded

imp

ort

s o

f p

ou

ltry

mea

t an

d e

gg

pro

du

cts

fro

m C

hile

, fo

llow

ing

an

ou

tbre

ak o

f H

7 LP

AI.

Rep

ub

lic o

f K

ore

a Se

p-1

9B

ovi

ne

mea

tIm

po

rt b

an li

fted

Rem

ove

d r

estr

icti

on

s fo

r b

ovi

ne

mea

t im

po

rts

fro

m t

he

EU, i

n p

lace

sin

ce 2

001

du

e to

BSE

.

Ma

jor

po

licy

de

velo

pm

en

ts

48 FOOD OUTLOOKNOVEMBER 2019

CO

UN

TRY

DA

TEPR

OD

UC

TPO

LIC

Y IN

STR

UM

ENT

DES

CR

IPTI

ON

Mex

ico

May

-19

Pou

ltry

mea

tTa

riff

rat

e q

uo

taA

nn

ou

nce

d a

n in

crea

se o

f th

e ta

riff

rat

e q

uo

ta (

TRQ

) fo

r p

ou

ltry

mea

t b

y an

ad

dit

ion

al 5

5 00

0 m

etri

c to

nn

es,

bri

ng

ing

th

e to

tal T

RQ

to

355

000

met

ric

ton

nes

.

May

-19

All

Trad

e ta

riff

lift

edLi

fted

tar

iffs

on

US

bo

vin

e an

d p

ig m

eat,

in r

esp

on

se t

o t

he

rem

ova

l of

tari

ffs

imp

ose

d b

y th

e U

nit

ed S

tate

s o

n s

teel

an

d a

lum

iniu

m im

po

rts

fro

m M

exic

o.

The

Phili

pp

ines

Sep

-19

Pig

mea

t Im

po

rt b

an

Susp

end

ed p

ig m

eat

imp

ort

s fr

om

th

e R

epu

blic

of

Ko

rea,

Mya

nm

ar a

nd

Ser

bia

du

e to

co

nce

rns

ove

r A

SF, f

ollo

win

g

ban

s b

y m

any

cou

ntr

ies

for

the

sam

e re

aso

n a

t d

iffe

ren

t ti

mes

incl

ud

ing

Bel

giu

m, B

ulg

aria

, Ch

ina,

Cze

chia

, G

erm

any,

Hu

ng

ary,

Dem

ocr

atic

Peo

ple

’s R

epu

blic

of

Ko

rea,

th

e La

o P

eop

le’s

Dem

ocr

atic

Rep

ub

lic, L

atvi

a, M

old

ova

, M

on

go

lia, P

ola

nd

, Ro

man

ia, t

he

Ru

ssia

n F

eder

atio

n, S

ou

th A

fric

a, U

krai

ne,

Vie

t N

am a

nd

Zam

bia

.

Ru

ssia

n F

eder

atio

n

Ap

r-19

Pou

ltry

mea

tTr

ade

agre

emen

tA

gre

ed w

ith

Ch

ina

to b

uy

each

oth

er's

po

ult

ry a

nd

rel

ated

pro

du

cts.

May

-19

All

Mar

ket

acce

ssC

on

firm

ed t

hat

26

mea

tpac

kin

g p

lan

ts w

ere

app

rove

d b

y C

hin

a, H

on

g K

on

g S

AR

to

exp

ort

pig

mea

t an

d b

ovi

ne

mea

t to

th

e co

un

try.

Jun

-19

All

Imp

ort

ban

ext

end

edEx

ten

ded

un

til t

he

end

of

2020

th

e b

an o

n t

he

imp

ort

of

agri

cult

ura

l pro

du

cts,

incl

ud

ing

mea

t, f

rom

co

un

trie

s th

at

app

lied

eco

no

mic

san

ctio

ns

agai

nst

th

e R

uss

ian

Fed

erat

ion

.

Au

g-1

9B

ovi

ne

mea

tM

arke

t ac

cess

Gra

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Bra

zilia

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ply

bo

vin

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pro

du

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to it

s m

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t, b

y si

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ing

th

e ve

teri

nar

y ce

rtifi

cate

s.

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g-1

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g m

eat

Imp

ort

ban

Ban

ned

imp

ort

s o

f p

ig m

eat

fro

m S

erb

ia f

ollo

win

g n

ews

that

ASF

had

rea

ched

th

e B

alka

n c

ou

ntr

y fo

r th

e fi

rst

tim

e.

Sau

di A

rab

ia

Oct

-19

Pou

ltry

mea

tIm

po

rt b

an li

fted

Lift

ed a

ban

on

imp

ort

s o

f h

atch

ing

eg

gs

and

day

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-ch

icks

fro

m s

ever

al c

ou

ntr

ies,

incl

ud

ing

Den

mar

k, It

aly

and

th

e R

uss

ian

Fed

erat

ion

, as

thes

e co

un

trie

s h

ave

bee

n f

ree

of

hig

hly

pat

ho

gen

ic a

vian

flu

fo

r at

leas

t th

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mo

nth

s.

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iaA

ug

-19

Pig

mea

t Ex

po

rt b

anH

alte

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ig m

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exp

ort

s to

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snia

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d H

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vin

a, N

ort

h M

aced

on

ia a

nd

Mo

nte

neg

ro d

ue

to r

epo

rted

cas

es o

f A

SF.

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gap

ore

Jul-

19Po

ult

ry m

eat

Mar

ket

acce

ssA

uth

ori

zed

imp

ort

s o

f fr

oze

n p

ou

ltry

mea

t fr

om

th

e R

uss

ian

Fed

erat

ion

, fo

llow

ing

rec

og

nit

ion

th

at a

vian

flu

is

pre

sen

t in

on

ly o

ne

reg

ion

of

the

cou

ntr

y.

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th A

fric

aJu

l-19

Bo

vin

e m

eat

Mar

ket

acce

ssR

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med

bo

vin

e m

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exp

ort

s to

Ch

ina,

fo

llow

ing

th

e re

mo

val o

f a

ban

imp

ose

d o

n it

s ex

po

rts

du

e to

an

ou

tbre

ak

of

FMD

in J

anu

ary.

Thai

lan

d

Jun

-19

Pig

mea

t Im

po

rt b

anB

ann

ed im

po

rts

of

live

pig

s an

d w

ild b

oar

s fr

om

th

e La

o P

eop

le’s

Dem

ocr

atic

Rep

ub

lic f

or

90 d

ays,

aft

er t

he

cou

ntr

y co

nfi

rmed

its

firs

t ca

se o

f A

SF.

Au

g-1

9Pi

g m

eat

Imp

ort

ban

Ban

ned

imp

ort

s o

f liv

e p

igs

and

wild

bo

ars

fro

m M

yan

mar

fo

r 90

day

s, a

fter

th

e co

un

try

con

firm

ed it

s fi

rst

case

of

ASF

.

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ited

Sta

tes

of

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aA

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h t

he

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vern

men

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f Tu

nis

ia, a

llow

ing

exp

ort

s o

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ovi

ne,

po

ult

ry m

eat

and

eg

g

pro

du

cts.

49FOOD OUTLOOKNOVEMBER 2019

Me

at

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iff-

rate

qu

ota

fo

r p

ou

ltry

mea

t ex

po

rts.

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am

Sep

-19

All

Mar

ket

acce

ssA

uth

ori

zed

imp

ort

s o

f m

eat

fro

m L

ith

uan

ia a

fter

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ese

insp

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ave

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ent

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th

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ts

50 FOOD OUTLOOKNOVEMBER 2019

DA

IRY:

M

AJO

R PO

LICY

DEV

ELO

PMEN

TS M

ID-A

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TO

MID

-OCT

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R 20

19*

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STR

UM

ENT

DES

CR

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Bel

aru

s A

pr-

19D

airy

pro

du

cts

Mar

ket

acce

ssSi

gn

ed a

pro

toco

l wit

h C

hin

a o

n q

uar

anti

ne

and

hea

lth

req

uir

emen

ts t

o e

xpo

rt d

airy

fo

dd

er

pro

du

cts.

Bra

zil

Sep

-19

Dai

ry p

rod

uct

sM

arke

t ac

cess

An

no

un

ced

th

e re

op

enin

g o

f th

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ypti

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req

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exp

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s o

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ypt

had

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ince

201

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ina

(M

ain

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Sep

-19

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emp

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feed

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tar

iffs

.

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n U

nio

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Jun

-19

Dai

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p t

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erce

nt

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into

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t N

am o

ver

a 5-

year

per

iod

.

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-19

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ry p

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sTr

ade

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tR

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ed a

n a

gre

emen

t w

ith

th

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ern

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ket

(MER

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g

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gu

ay a

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de

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rop

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ph

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ind

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ia

Ap

r-19

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ry p

rod

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sIm

po

rt b

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ded

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nd

ed t

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ban

on

imp

ort

s o

f m

ilk a

nd

its

pro

du

cts

fro

m C

hin

a, w

hic

h w

as fi

rst

imp

ose

d

du

e to

th

e p

rese

nce

of

mel

amin

e in

so

me

milk

co

nsi

gn

men

ts f

rom

Ch

ina

in 2

008.

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an

Oct

-19

Milk

po

wd

erIm

po

rt q

uo

taLo

wer

ed t

he

amo

un

t o

f p

lan

ned

ski

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apan

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ear

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ose

d b

y th

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nit

ed S

tate

s o

n s

teel

an

d a

lum

iniu

m.

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ssia

n F

eder

atio

n

Jun

-19

Dai

ry p

rod

uct

sIm

po

rt b

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ded

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nd

ed t

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ban

un

til t

he

end

of

2020

on

imp

ort

s o

f ag

ricu

ltu

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rod

uct

s, in

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din

g d

airy

p

rod

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s, f

rom

co

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trie

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lied

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no

mic

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ctio

ns

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nst

th

e R

uss

ian

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erat

ion

.

Serb

ia

Jun

-19

Dai

ry p

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ade

agre

emen

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nn

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nce

d a

n a

gre

emen

t en

ablin

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ry p

rod

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s to

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ina.

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vaki

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pr-

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Mar

ket

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gn

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gre

emen

t w

ith

Ch

ina,

allo

win

g e

xpo

rts

of

dai

ry p

rod

uct

s to

Ch

ina.

Turk

ey

Sep

-19

Dai

ry p

rod

uct

sM

arke

t ac

cess

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ched

an

ag

reem

ent

wit

h C

hin

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exp

ort

dai

ry p

rod

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s, w

hic

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ill a

llow

th

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Tu

rkis

h

firm

s re

gis

tere

d w

ith

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ina’

s fo

od

imp

ort

sys

tem

(C

IFER

) to

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rts,

fo

llow

ing

ap

pro

val

fro

m t

he

Ch

ines

e au

tho

riti

es.

Ukr

ain

e

May

-19

Dai

ry p

rod

uct

sM

arke

t ac

cess

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reed

wit

h B

osn

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nd

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zeg

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on

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vet

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51FOOD OUTLOOKNOVEMBER 2019

Da

iry

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ned

to

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evel

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-19

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ry p

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apan

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r Ja

pan

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ally

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d c

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s o

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hee

se.

Oct

-19

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eese

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ort

tar

iffs

Imp

ose

d t

arif

fs w

ort

h U

SD 7

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illio

n o

n E

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oo

ds,

incl

ud

ing

ch

eese

, wit

h im

po

rt

tari

ffs

ran

gin

g f

rom

10

to 2

5 p

erce

nt,

on

Oct

ob

er 1

8 af

ter

a W

orl

d T

rad

e O

rgan

izat

ion

ru

ling

allo

wed

th

e U

nit

ed S

tate

s to

tak

e re

talia

tory

act

ion

s o

ver

EU s

ub

sid

ies

to a

ircr

aft

man

ufa

ctu

rin

g.

Uru

gu

ay

Sep

-19

Milk

po

wd

erM

arke

t ac

cess

An

no

un

ced

th

at o

ne

of

its

larg

est

dai

ry e

xpo

rter

s h

as s

ign

ed a

n a

gre

emen

t to

exp

ort

4 0

00

ton

nes

of

milk

po

wd

er t

o C

hin

a.

Zim

bab

we

Jul-

19D

airy

pro

du

cts

Pro

du

ctio

n s

up

po

rtR

ecei

ved

dev

elo

pm

ent

assi

stan

ce w

ort

h U

SD 1

1 m

illio

n f

rom

th

e U

nit

ed S

tate

s fo

r a

five

-yea

r p

rog

ram

me

to b

oo

st m

ilk y

ield

s an

d im

pro

ve li

velih

oo

ds.

Sta

tist

ica

l a

pp

en

dix

52 53FOOD OUTLOOKNOVEMBER 2019

FOOD OUTLOOKNOVEMBER 2019

Appendix Table 1 (A & B): Cereal statistics 54-55

Appendix Table 2 (A & B): Wheat statistics 56-57

Appendix Table 3 (A & B): Coarse grains statistics 58-59

Appendix Table 4 (A & B): Maize statistics 60-61

Appendix Table 5 (A & B): Barley statistics 62-63

Appendix Table 6 (A & B): Sorghum statistics 64-65

Appendix Table 7 (A & B): Other Coarse grains statistics 64-65

Appendix Table 8 (A & B): Rice statistics 66-67

Appendix Table 9: Cereal supply and utilization in main exporting countries 68

Appendix Table 10: Total oilcrops statistics 69

Appendix Table 11: Total oils and fats statistics 70

Appendix Table 12: Total meals and cakes statistics 71

Appendix Table 13: Sugar statistics 72

Appendix Table 14: Total meat statistics 73

Appendix Table 15: Bovine meat statistics 74

Appendix Table 16: Ovine meat statistics 75

Appendix Table 17: Pigmeat statistics 76

Appendix Table 18: Poultry meat statistics 77

Appendix Table 19: Milk and milk products statistics 78

Appendix Table 20: Fish and fishery products statistics 79

Appendix Table 21: Selected international prices for wheat and coarse grains 80

Appendix Table 22: Wheat and maize futures prices 80

Appendix Table 23: Selected international prices for rice and price indices 81

Appendix Table 24: Selected international prices for oilcrop products and price indices 82

Appendix Table 25: Selected international prices for sugar and sugar price index 83

Appendix Table 26: Selected international prices for milk products and dairy price indices 84

Appendix Table 27: Selected international meat prices 85

Appendix Table 28: Selected international meat prices and FAO meat price index 86

Appendix Table 29: Fish price indices 87

Appendix Table 30: Selected international commodity prices 88

Statistical appendix tables

52 53FOOD OUTLOOKNOVEMBER 2019

FOOD OUTLOOKNOVEMBER 2019

GENERAL

• FAO estimates and forecasts are

based on official and unofficial

sources.

• Unless otherwise stated - all charts

and tables refer to FAO data as

source.

• Estimates of world imports and exports

may not always match - mainly

because shipments and deliveries

do not necessarily occur in the same

marketing year.

• Tonnes refer to metric tonnes.

• All totals are computed from

unrounded data.

• Regional totals may include estimates

for countries not listed. The countries

shown in the tables were chosen

based on their importance of either

production or trade in each region.

The totals shown for Central America

include countries in the Caribbean.

• Estimates for China also include

those for the Taiwan Province - Hong

Kong SAR and Macao SAR - unless

otherwise stated.

• Up to 2012/13 - the European

Union includes 27 member states.

From 2013/14 - the European Union

includes 28 member states.

• ‘-‘ means nil or negligible.

• Cereals include wheat - rice and

coarse grains. Coarse grains include

maize - barley - sorghum - millet

- rye - oats and NES (not elsewhere

specified).

Production• Cereals: Data refer to the calendar

year in which the whole harvest or

bulk of harvest takes place.

Utilization• Cereals: Data are on individual

country’s marketing year basis.

Trade• Trade between European Union

member states is excluded - unless

otherwise stated.

• Wheat: Trade data include wheat

flour in wheat grain equivalent. The

time reference period is July/June -

unless otherwise stated.

• Coarse grains: The time reference

period is July/June - unless otherwise

stated.

• Rice, dairy and meat products:

The time reference period is January/

December.

• Oilseeds, oils/fats and meals: The

time reference period is October/

September - unless otherwise stated.

Stocks• Cereals: Data refer to carry-overs at

the close of national crop seasons

ending in the year shown.

Price indices• The FAO price indices are calculated

using the Laspeyres formula; the weights used are based on the average export value of each commodity for the 2002-2004

period.

COUNTRY CLASSIFICATION

In the presentation of statistical

material, references are made to

special country groupings: Low-

Income Food-Deficit Countries (LIFDCs)

- Least Developed Countries (LDCs).

The LIFDCs include 51 countries that

are net importers of basic foodstuffs

with per caput income below the

level used by the World Bank to

determine eligibility for International

Development Aid (IDA) assistance (i.e.

USD 1 945 in 2011). The LDCs group

currently includes 47 countries with

low income as well as weak human

resources and low level of economic

diversification. The list is reviewed

every three years by the Economic and

Social Council of the United Nations.

DISCLAIMER

The designations employed and

the presentation of material in

this publication do not imply the

expression of any opinion whatsoever

on the part of the Food and

Agriculture Organization of the United

Nations concerning the legal status of

any country - territory - city or area

or of its authorities - or concerning

the delimitation of its frontiers or

boundaries.

NOTES

Sta

tist

ica

l a

pp

en

dix

54 55FOOD OUTLOOKNOVEMBER 2019

FOOD OUTLOOKNOVEMBER 2019

APPENDIX TABLE 1(A): CEREAL STATISTICS

2015-2017

average2018 2019

15/16-17/18average

2018/19 2019/2015/16-17/18

average2018/19 2019/20

estim. f'cast estim. f'cast estim. f'cast

ASIA 1 184.5 1 200.0 1 209.7 207.4 203.0 206.4 59.5 61.9 59.9Bangladesh 38.7 40.4 41.2 7.8 7.5 7.8 - - -China 552.2 545.3 543.0 34.8 25.2 24.5 1.6 3.5 3.9India 244.7 261.7 262.1 2.9 0.2 0.2 13.0 12.6 13.4Indonesia 67.3 72.4 73.1 12.7 12.8 12.5 0.2 0.1 0.2Iran, Islamic Republic of 17.8 19.1 20.6 12.0 13.6 14.4 0.5 0.1 0.1Iraq 3.7 3.0 5.5 4.1 5.2 4.3 - - -Japan 8.7 8.4 8.4 23.4 24.0 24.8 0.3 0.3 0.3Kazakhstan 19.1 19.6 17.7 0.1 0.1 0.1 8.9 10.6 7.5Korea, Republic.of 4.4 4.1 4.1 14.6 14.3 15.2 0.1 0.1 0.1Myanmar 19.7 21.2 21.3 0.5 0.5 0.5 3.5 3.7 3.8Pakistan 39.1 39.1 39.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 4.7 5.1 5.2Philippines 19.6 20.0 20.0 7.5 10.8 11.0 0.1 - 0.1Saudi Arabia 0.3 0.8 1.0 17.4 15.2 17.5 - - -Thailand 25.2 26.4 26.6 4.4 3.6 4.1 11.4 9.0 8.9Turkey 36.3 34.0 33.9 6.9 9.6 9.9 4.9 4.7 4.5Viet Nam 33.6 33.5 33.6 13.6 13.9 14.8 6.6 7.5 7.5

AFRICA 176.8 193.8 182.9 92.4 89.7 95.6 6.6 6.5 6.0Algeria 3.6 6.0 6.1 13.3 12.5 12.2 - - -Egypt 21.9 20.2 20.9 20.9 22.1 22.6 0.2 - -Ethiopia 25.8 27.7 27.5 1.8 1.8 2.0 1.2 1.3 1.3Morocco 8.3 10.5 6.0 7.3 6.2 8.5 0.1 0.1 0.1Nigeria 22.5 24.7 24.1 7.7 8.0 8.1 0.7 0.7 0.7South Africa 14.3 15.6 14.0 4.2 2.8 3.2 1.5 1.7 1.6Sudan 6.0 8.3 6.7 2.8 2.8 2.9 0.3 0.4 0.2

CENTRAL AMERICA 43.2 42.2 41.1 33.3 36.2 37.9 2.9 1.3 2.2Mexico 36.8 35.7 34.7 20.9 23.1 24.6 2.7 1.1 2.0

SOUTH AMERICA 192.1 196.5 227.2 31.5 32.9 32.6 71.2 77.1 92.7Argentina 65.7 71.2 84.7 0.1 0.1 0.1 37.4 44.3 50.1Brazil 98.4 97.7 115.8 9.6 10.0 9.4 28.1 27.9 37.2Chile 3.8 3.4 3.3 3.1 3.5 3.6 0.1 0.1 0.1Colombia 3.1 3.1 3.0 7.3 7.6 7.7 - - -Peru 4.2 4.4 4.1 5.6 6.0 6.1 0.1 0.1 0.1Venezuela 1.6 0.9 0.8 3.5 3.4 3.5 - - -

NORTH AMERICA 503.2 497.2 482.5 9.7 10.3 10.3 116.6 122.1 107.4Canada 56.3 58.5 61.1 1.8 3.2 2.2 26.2 31.0 29.8United States of America 446.8 438.7 421.4 7.8 7.1 8.1 90.4 91.0 77.6

EUROPE 511.8 497.7 530.9 27.6 38.2 30.6 124.3 129.3 132.1European Union 309.0 294.6 316.8 23.4 33.1 26.0 37.8 31.1 35.2Russian Federation 116.8 109.5 116.3 0.9 0.6 0.6 41.2 43.9 43.5Serbia 8.7 10.5 9.8 0.1 0.1 0.1 2.7 3.6 2.1Ukraine 62.1 69.3 72.5 0.2 0.1 0.2 41.5 49.5 50.2

OCEANIA 41.0 29.9 29.7 1.7 1.8 1.8 26.1 14.1 14.7Australia 40.0 28.8 28.6 0.2 0.2 0.2 26.1 14.1 14.7

WORLD 2 652.5 2 657.3 2 704.0 403.6 412.2 415.1 407.3 412.2 415.1LIFDC 448.6 474.4 476.2 71.4 70.1 71.7 23.8 24.5 25.0LDC 175.3 187.7 186.6 39.0 39.1 40.0 9.4 9.8 9.7

APPENDIX TABLE 1(A): CEREAL STATISTICS

Production Imports Exports

(. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . million tonnes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . )

54 55FOOD OUTLOOKNOVEMBER 2019

FOOD OUTLOOKNOVEMBER 2019

APPENDIX TABLE 1(B): CEREAL STATISTICS

15/16-17/18

average2018/19 2019/20

2016-2018average

2019 202015/16-17/18

average2018/19 2019/20

estim. f'cast estim. f'cast estim. f'cast

ASIA 1 309.1 1 342.8 1 362.0 551.6 569.4 562.3 158.0 157.8 158.2Bangladesh 46.0 48.8 49.5 8.0 8.8 8.2 214.2 216.1 217.8China 553.8 568.8 572.5 405.8 426.0 417.2 154.6 153.4 153.5India 236.6 241.8 247.0 39.7 50.3 52.4 146.8 146.5 147.1Indonesia 79.8 85.8 86.0 9.5 10.4 9.6 188.5 189.8 190.8Iran, Islamic Republic of 31.1 33.3 34.7 8.2 5.1 4.9 202.9 203.4 203.7Iraq 8.5 8.5 9.3 0.7 0.4 0.9 188.3 187.9 188.5Japan 32.1 32.1 32.8 6.9 6.5 6.5 93.6 93.3 93.0Kazakhstan 10.5 10.1 9.7 4.1 3.0 3.7 157.0 156.5 156.5Korea, Republic.of 19.1 18.7 19.0 3.9 2.5 2.6 128.1 126.2 124.7Myanmar 16.9 17.5 17.9 2.9 3.3 3.5 211.0 214.0 214.6Pakistan 35.1 35.5 35.9 5.8 3.8 2.2 147.5 147.0 146.7Philippines 27.0 30.3 31.3 3.9 4.9 4.9 156.8 159.7 162.5Saudi Arabia 18.2 16.7 17.7 7.0 5.4 6.1 143.6 139.9 139.4Thailand 21.6 20.0 21.4 10.5 7.9 7.9 117.7 117.2 120.1Turkey 38.6 39.1 40.1 6.8 6.7 5.5 239.1 238.5 238.4Viet Nam 39.8 41.7 41.2 5.2 3.9 3.9 177.7 177.9 176.9

AFRICA 259.3 274.0 275.7 56.5 60.7 56.3 148.2 149.1 147.8Algeria 16.7 17.4 18.2 5.5 6.4 6.4 227.3 227.7 227.5Egypt 42.4 43.2 43.5 6.8 5.5 5.6 269.2 270.3 267.2Ethiopia 25.6 27.6 28.0 4.9 6.3 6.5 187.1 192.7 193.5Morocco 15.2 15.9 15.6 7.0 7.2 6.0 236.0 237.3 237.5Nigeria 29.5 30.4 31.4 2.8 3.7 3.6 125.6 122.6 121.7South Africa 16.4 17.7 16.9 3.5 3.6 2.3 163.8 165.1 164.5Sudan 8.4 9.6 9.4 3.0 3.3 2.5 179.0 182.4 179.3

CENTRAL AMERICA 72.7 77.1 77.8 10.8 11.4 10.7 159.5 162.5 162.2Mexico 54.1 57.3 58.1 6.2 7.5 6.9 186.2 186.9 187.6

SOUTH AMERICA 150.8 163.3 163.9 39.0 44.2 45.2 118.9 119.7 119.5Argentina 27.8 32.6 32.2 9.2 12.1 12.3 135.1 135.6 134.9Brazil 80.7 84.1 86.1 15.6 16.8 18.7 113.1 112.3 111.7Chile 6.1 7.2 7.0 4.1 4.3 3.9 145.1 147.6 147.5Colombia 9.9 10.6 10.7 2.1 2.5 2.5 107.8 119.5 119.8Peru 9.5 10.2 10.5 1.0 1.1 1.0 149.9 152.2 152.9Venezuela 5.5 4.6 4.3 0.9 0.3 0.2 115.9 109.4 108.5

NORTH AMERICA 388.3 395.6 389.3 98.1 97.9 90.7 110.1 110.1 110.0Canada 31.5 33.0 32.8 11.2 9.3 10.1 96.2 96.3 96.3United States of America 356.9 362.7 356.5 86.9 88.6 80.6 111.7 111.7 111.6

EUROPE 413.9 418.3 422.8 74.4 71.3 77.9 133.3 133.3 133.6European Union 294.4 297.7 302.6 40.7 45.1 50.1 133.8 134.1 134.4Russian Federation 73.2 75.6 74.9 18.3 13.5 12.0 126.5 126.1 126.1Serbia 6.4 6.5 6.5 1.0 1.1 2.4 173.8 175.4 172.6Ukraine 23.0 21.6 21.7 7.9 4.8 5.6 144.1 143.2 143.6

OCEANIA 16.7 17.7 17.8 8.5 7.3 6.3 93.1 93.1 93.2Australia 14.2 15.0 15.1 8.0 6.8 5.8 102.9 102.9 103.0

WORLD 2 610.9 2 688.8 2 709.2 838.7 862.3 849.5 149.1 149.3 149.3LIFDC 494.8 514.5 521.2 92.2 103.8 104.7 149.4 150.0 149.9LDC 203.5 216.3 218.3 41.9 45.3 43.0 154.5 155.8 154.9

APPENDIX TABLE 1(B): CEREAL STATISTICS

Total Utilization Stocks ending in Per caput food use

(. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . million tonnes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ) (. . . . . . . . . . . Kg/year . . . . . . . . . . . )

Sta

tist

ica

l a

pp

en

dix

56 57FOOD OUTLOOKNOVEMBER 2019

FOOD OUTLOOKNOVEMBER 2019

APPENDIX TABLE 2(A): WHEAT STATISTICS

2015-2017

average2018 2019

15/16-17/18average

2018/19 2019/2015/16-17/18

average2018/19 2019/20

estim. f'cast estim. f'cast estim. f'cast

ASIA 326.1 326.7 336.3 86.0 85.1 85.7 16.7 17.1 14.2Bangladesh 1.3 1.1 1.3 5.3 5.6 5.8 - - -China 133.4 131.4 134.0 5.7 4.9 5.4 0.3 0.4 0.3 of which Taiwan Prov. - - - 1.4 1.4 1.4 - - -India 92.4 99.9 102.2 2.6 - - 0.6 0.5 0.5Indonesia - - - 10.2 11.3 11.2 0.1 0.1 0.1Iran, Islamic Republic of 11.7 13.4 14.5 2.1 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.1 0.1Iraq 2.9 2.2 4.3 2.8 3.7 2.7 - - -Japan 0.9 0.8 0.8 5.6 5.5 5.6 0.2 0.2 0.2Kazakhstan 14.5 13.9 11.5 0.1 0.1 0.1 7.8 8.6 6.0Korea, Republic of - - - 4.3 3.7 4.5 - - -Pakistan 25.8 25.1 25.2 - - - 0.8 0.7 0.6Philippines - - - 5.5 7.1 7.4 0.1 - -Saudi Arabia - 0.5 0.7 3.3 2.9 3.2 - - -Thailand - - - 3.9 2.8 3.3 - - -Turkey 21.6 20.0 19.0 4.8 6.5 6.3 4.7 4.6 4.4

AFRICA 26.4 29.3 27.3 49.3 48.3 48.9 0.9 0.8 0.9Algeria 2.5 3.9 4.0 8.3 7.4 7.0 - - -Egypt 9.1 8.6 9.0 11.9 12.5 12.5 - - -Ethiopia 4.6 4.8 4.8 1.3 1.3 1.5 - - -Morocco 6.0 7.3 4.5 4.5 3.7 5.0 0.1 0.1 0.1Nigeria 0.1 0.1 0.1 4.9 5.1 4.8 0.4 0.4 0.4South Africa 1.6 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.6 1.6 0.1 0.1 0.1Tunisia 1.0 1.1 1.7 2.1 1.9 1.7 0.1 - -

CENTRAL AMERICA 3.7 2.9 3.3 9.0 9.3 9.5 1.3 0.6 1.4Cuba - - - 0.8 0.8 0.8 - - -Mexico 3.7 2.9 3.3 5.0 5.0 5.2 1.2 0.5 1.3

SOUTH AMERICA 25.3 28.9 28.5 14.7 15.3 15.4 13.1 13.8 15.2Argentina 16.1 19.5 19.6 - - - 11.4 12.4 14.0Brazil 5.5 5.4 5.1 6.7 7.3 7.3 0.6 0.6 0.5Chile 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.2 1.1 1.2 - - -Colombia - - - 1.9 1.7 1.7 - - -Peru 0.2 0.2 0.2 2.0 2.1 2.1 - - -Venezuela - - - 1.3 1.4 1.4 - - -

NORTH AMERICA 85.5 83.5 85.9 3.7 3.6 4.0 45.8 50.5 50.3Canada 30.0 32.2 32.5 0.1 0.1 0.1 21.0 24.4 24.1United States of America 55.4 51.3 53.4 3.6 3.5 3.9 24.8 26.1 26.2

EUROPE 260.5 242.9 265.8 8.1 8.2 7.6 78.4 75.6 80.6European Union 152.5 138.6 154.0 5.7 5.4 5.0 27.7 22.4 27.0Russian Federation 73.7 72.1 75.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 31.3 35.7 33.5Ukraine 26.3 24.6 28.0 - - - 17.8 15.9 18.5

OCEANIA 25.4 17.7 17.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 17.8 9.8 9.5Australia 25.0 17.3 17.5 - - - 17.8 9.8 9.5

WORLD 752.9 731.9 765.0 171.9 170.6 172.1 173.9 168.2 172.1LIFDC 116.6 121.4 127.3 38.7 36.5 36.3 1.5 1.4 1.4LDC 13.7 12.7 14.6 22.4 23.4 22.7 0.1 0.1 0.1

APPENDIX TABLE 2(A): WHEAT STATISTICS

Production Imports Exports

(. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . million tonnes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . )

56 57FOOD OUTLOOKNOVEMBER 2019

FOOD OUTLOOKNOVEMBER 2019

APPENDIX TABLE 2(B): WHEAT STATISTICS

15/16-17/18

average2018/19 2019/20

2016-2018average

2019 202015/16-17/18

average2018/19 2019/20

estim. f'cast estim. f'cast estim. f'cast

ASIA 382.2 392.5 399.7 157.5 174.3 181.9 65.8 65.8 66.0Bangladesh 6.1 7.2 7.4 1.9 1.9 1.6 29.6 32.5 32.8China 122.6 128.3 129.6 95.8 119.7 129.1 64.8 63.6 63.7 of which Taiwan Prov. 1.4 1.4 1.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 45.7 45.6 45.7India 96.0 97.9 100.4 17.2 19.5 20.8 59.8 59.9 60.1Indonesia 9.8 11.1 11.1 1.1 1.1 1.0 25.5 26.4 26.3Iran, Islamic Republic of 14.6 14.6 14.8 5.8 2.1 1.8 166.4 166.4 166.4Iraq 6.2 6.2 6.5 0.6 0.2 0.7 149.3 148.7 149.0Japan 6.3 6.3 6.3 1.6 1.4 1.1 40.5 40.6 40.6Kazakhstan 6.9 6.4 6.2 3.6 2.6 2.0 142.6 142.0 142.0Korea, Republic of 4.1 3.7 4.3 0.9 1.0 1.1 47.8 47.7 47.6Pakistan 25.4 25.4 25.9 3.8 2.4 1.0 124.4 124.2 124.1Philippines 5.4 7.0 7.4 0.8 1.1 1.0 23.3 24.0 24.5Saudi Arabia 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.2 2.8 3.1 99.2 98.6 98.4Thailand 3.6 2.9 3.3 1.6 1.7 1.7 16.3 16.3 16.8Turkey 21.8 22.1 22.2 4.7 4.5 3.3 210.0 210.0 209.7

AFRICA 73.5 76.3 76.7 21.7 19.4 17.3 50.3 50.1 49.7Algeria 10.6 10.8 10.9 3.8 4.3 4.3 208.8 209.5 209.5Egypt 21.0 21.6 21.8 4.6 3.4 3.2 185.9 186.2 186.3Ethiopia 5.8 6.3 6.4 0.9 0.8 0.6 45.5 48.2 48.1Morocco 9.9 10.7 10.4 5.6 5.6 4.6 205.1 206.1 206.1Nigeria 4.0 4.1 4.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 20.3 20.0 20.2South Africa 3.2 3.4 3.3 0.6 0.5 0.4 56.5 56.6 56.8Tunisia 3.0 3.0 3.1 0.5 0.4 0.6 209.4 209.3 209.6

CENTRAL AMERICA 11.2 11.7 11.8 2.2 2.2 2.0 44.0 45.6 45.4Cuba 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.1 0.1 0.1 58.1 60.5 61.3Mexico 7.3 7.4 7.6 1.0 1.1 1.0 48.6 48.9 49.1

SOUTH AMERICA 27.7 29.6 29.0 7.0 7.6 7.7 59.4 60.2 60.2Argentina 5.7 6.2 5.8 1.7 2.0 2.3 117.5 117.7 117.8Brazil 11.5 11.9 11.9 1.9 2.0 2.0 53.1 53.6 53.7Chile 2.5 3.1 2.8 1.1 0.8 0.6 108.8 109.9 110.2Colombia 1.7 1.8 1.7 0.9 0.9 0.9 32.1 33.9 31.5Peru 2.2 2.2 2.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 63.9 64.6 65.9Venezuela 1.3 1.4 1.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 41.5 42.6 42.1

NORTH AMERICA 40.0 38.5 40.5 35.7 35.3 34.4 82.7 82.5 82.3Canada 9.0 8.5 8.7 6.2 5.9 6.0 81.1 81.2 81.1United States of America 31.0 30.0 31.8 29.5 29.4 28.4 82.9 82.6 82.5

EUROPE 186.6 189.0 191.2 34.3 26.6 28.2 107.7 107.6 107.9European Union 128.3 127.2 129.6 16.6 14.5 17.0 109.4 109.5 109.7Russian Federation 40.4 44.7 44.2 12.6 8.0 6.2 100.1 99.9 99.9Ukraine 9.6 8.7 8.8 2.9 2.1 2.8 112.0 111.7 112.0

OCEANIA 9.2 10.4 10.5 5.3 4.5 3.3 68.9 68.7 68.8Australia 7.9 9.1 9.2 5.0 4.2 3.0 82.5 82.4 82.5

WORLD 730.4 748.0 759.5 263.8 269.8 274.9 67.3 67.1 67.1LIFDC 154.5 158.1 161.5 33.6 32.3 32.3 48.9 49.1 49.0LDC 35.4 37.3 38.0 10.6 8.7 7.4 30.4 31.1 31.1

APPENDIX TABLE 2(B): WHEAT STATISTICS

Total Utilization Stocks ending in Per caput food use

(. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . million tonnes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ) (. . . . . . . . . . . Kg/year . . . . . . . . . . . )

Sta

tist

ica

l a

pp

en

dix

58 59FOOD OUTLOOKNOVEMBER 2019

FOOD OUTLOOKNOVEMBER 2019

APPENDIX TABLE 3(A): COARSE GRAIN STATISTICS

2015-2017

average2018 2019

15/16-17/18average

2018/19 2019/2015/16-17/18

average2018/19 2019/20

estim. f'cast estim. f'cast estim. f'cast

ASIA 404.3 406.5 407.3 100.0 97.8 100.8 4.7 6.0 5.4China 272.4 267.3 264.4 23.0 15.9 15.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 of which Taiwan Prov. 0.2 0.2 0.2 4.4 5.1 5.1 - - -India 43.3 45.4 44.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.9 0.9 0.8Indonesia 21.4 25.7 26.3 1.2 1.1 0.9 0.2 - 0.1Iran, Islamic Republic of 4.3 3.7 4.1 9.3 11.9 12.9 - - -Japan 0.2 0.2 0.2 17.2 17.8 18.5 - - -Korea, Republic of 0.2 0.2 0.2 9.9 10.1 10.4 - - -Malaysia 0.1 0.1 0.1 3.8 3.5 3.6 - - -Pakistan 6.3 6.8 6.8 0.2 0.2 0.2 - - -Philippines 7.5 7.8 7.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 - - -Saudi Arabia 0.3 0.3 0.3 12.8 11.0 12.9 - - -Thailand 4.9 5.2 5.3 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.3Turkey 14.2 13.4 14.3 1.8 2.8 3.3 0.1 0.1 0.1Viet Nam 5.2 4.9 4.9 8.6 9.9 10.1 0.1 0.4 0.3

AFRICA 129.2 142.5 134.2 26.9 24.1 28.0 5.1 5.2 4.9Algeria 1.0 2.0 2.1 4.9 5.0 5.1 - - -Egypt 8.5 8.3 8.4 8.8 8.9 9.7 - - -Ethiopia 21.1 22.8 22.6 - - - 1.2 1.3 1.3Morocco 2.3 3.1 1.4 2.8 2.5 3.5 - - -Nigeria 17.8 19.2 19.2 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2South Africa 12.6 13.7 12.2 1.5 0.3 0.7 1.4 1.7 1.5Sudan 5.4 7.6 6.0 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.2Tanzania, United Rep. of 7.0 7.3 7.4 - - - 0.3 0.3 0.3

CENTRAL AMERICA 37.7 37.3 35.8 21.8 24.6 26.0 1.5 0.6 0.8Mexico 32.9 32.6 31.2 15.2 17.4 18.7 1.4 0.6 0.8

SOUTH AMERICA 150.0 150.8 183.2 14.8 15.7 15.1 54.8 60.0 74.1Argentina 48.6 50.8 64.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 25.6 31.5 35.6Brazil 84.9 84.1 103.5 2.2 1.9 1.2 26.7 26.6 36.0Chile 2.1 1.9 1.7 1.7 2.3 2.3 0.1 0.1 0.1Colombia 1.4 1.3 1.2 5.2 5.6 5.7 - - -Peru 1.8 1.8 1.8 3.3 3.6 3.7 - - -Venezuela 1.3 0.7 0.6 1.8 1.6 1.6 - - -

NORTH AMERICA 411.4 406.6 390.6 4.8 5.4 5.0 67.6 68.6 54.0Canada 26.3 26.3 28.6 1.3 2.7 1.7 5.1 6.6 5.7United States of America 385.1 380.3 362.0 3.4 2.7 3.3 62.5 62.0 48.3

EUROPE 248.8 252.4 262.6 17.0 27.3 20.2 45.4 53.2 51.0European Union 154.8 154.3 161.1 15.8 25.5 18.8 9.8 8.5 7.9Russian Federation 42.4 36.6 40.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 9.8 8.0 9.9Serbia 6.2 7.6 7.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 1.7 2.5 1.1Ukraine 35.8 44.6 44.5 0.1 0.1 0.1 23.7 33.6 31.7

OCEANIA 15.2 11.7 11.7 0.3 0.3 0.3 8.2 4.2 5.2Australia 14.6 11.1 11.1 - - - 8.2 4.2 5.2

WORLD 1 396.5 1 407.9 1 425.5 185.6 195.3 195.3 187.3 197.8 195.3LIFDC 141.8 152.9 148.7 16.8 18.4 19.0 3.9 4.5 4.1LDC 86.4 95.5 92.1 4.7 5.0 5.6 5.0 5.2 5.0

APPENDIX TABLE 3(A): COARSE GRAIN STATISTICS

Production Imports Exports

(. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . million tonnes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . )

58 59FOOD OUTLOOKNOVEMBER 2019

FOOD OUTLOOKNOVEMBER 2019

APPENDIX TABLE 3(B): COARSE GRAIN STATISTICS

15/16-17/18

average2018/19 2019/20

2016-2018average

2019 202015/16-17/18

average2018/19 2019/20

estim. f'cast estim. f'cast estim. f'cast

ASIA 489.9 508.9 515.3 233.8 223.0 209.1 14.8 14.8 14.4China 284.3 292.6 294.6 209.2 200.5 184.7 13.2 13.2 13.1 of which Taiwan Prov. 4.6 5.2 5.3 0.3 0.5 0.5 7.0 7.0 6.9India 43.0 45.3 44.4 2.5 1.9 1.2 18.7 18.7 17.5Indonesia 23.1 26.7 26.9 1.8 2.0 2.0 29.1 29.5 29.6Iran, Islamic Republic of 13.3 15.3 16.5 1.8 2.3 2.4 1.3 1.2 1.2Japan 17.3 17.8 18.5 2.1 2.0 2.2 3.3 3.3 3.3Korea, Republic.of 10.4 10.6 10.6 1.4 0.6 0.6 4.3 4.3 4.3Malaysia 3.8 3.6 3.7 0.1 0.2 0.2 1.8 2.0 2.0Pakistan 6.7 7.0 6.9 1.3 0.8 0.8 10.6 10.3 10.1Philippines 8.2 8.4 8.6 0.8 1.2 1.0 18.7 18.0 18.1Saudi Arabia 13.3 11.8 12.7 3.5 2.4 2.9 3.0 2.9 2.8Thailand 4.6 5.3 5.6 0.7 0.8 0.6 2.7 2.7 2.7Turkey 16.0 16.2 17.1 2.1 2.1 2.2 19.8 19.7 19.4Viet Nam 13.6 15.0 15.0 1.5 0.6 0.4 7.1 7.5 7.7

AFRICA 149.3 158.5 159.2 29.2 36.0 34.0 72.0 72.2 71.3Algeria 6.0 6.5 7.2 1.7 2.1 2.1 15.8 15.2 15.0Egypt 17.4 17.3 17.8 1.6 1.5 1.9 45.1 44.7 43.9Ethiopia 19.2 20.6 20.9 3.9 5.4 5.7 137.2 139.1 140.0Morocco 5.2 5.1 5.2 1.3 1.6 1.4 29.8 29.5 29.6Nigeria 18.3 18.7 19.4 1.6 2.5 2.5 72.0 68.6 68.1South Africa 12.3 13.4 12.6 2.8 2.9 1.7 91.5 92.4 91.8Sudan 5.6 6.6 6.3 1.1 1.9 1.7 111.3 112.3 108.4Tanzania, United Rep. of 6.8 7.1 7.2 1.5 1.3 1.1 86.7 87.3 86.6

CENTRAL AMERICA 57.4 61.2 61.7 8.1 8.7 8.0 97.6 98.9 98.7Mexico 46.0 49.0 49.6 5.2 6.3 5.8 131.2 131.5 131.9

SOUTH AMERICA 107.9 118.7 120.1 29.6 34.2 35.7 27.6 28.4 28.4Argentina 21.5 25.9 25.9 7.2 9.9 9.9 7.3 7.3 7.3Brazil 61.2 64.6 66.7 13.3 14.4 16.4 25.5 25.7 25.7Chile 3.4 3.9 4.0 3.0 3.5 3.3 25.1 25.4 25.2Colombia 6.5 6.9 7.0 0.9 1.1 1.1 42.3 51.1 51.5Peru 4.9 5.5 5.7 0.3 0.4 0.3 20.9 21.7 21.4Venezuela 3.5 2.6 2.3 0.7 0.1 0.1 54.3 49.9 49.3

NORTH AMERICA 343.9 352.1 344.2 61.0 61.2 55.1 18.0 18.0 18.0Canada 22.1 24.0 23.7 4.9 3.4 4.1 4.7 4.6 4.6United States of America 321.8 328.1 320.5 56.1 57.8 51.0 19.6 19.5 19.5

EUROPE 222.8 224.8 226.9 39.3 44.1 48.9 20.5 20.3 20.4European Union 162.8 167.0 169.5 23.5 30.0 32.5 18.9 18.8 18.9Russian Federation 32.1 30.1 30.0 5.6 5.4 5.8 21.6 21.2 21.2Serbia 4.8 4.8 4.8 0.6 0.6 2.1 23.6 24.3 21.0Ukraine 13.3 12.7 12.7 5.0 2.8 2.8 29.4 28.7 28.8

OCEANIA 6.8 6.5 6.6 2.9 2.4 2.8 8.1 7.9 7.9Australia 6.0 5.6 5.6 2.8 2.3 2.7 9.7 9.5 9.4

WORLD 1 378.2 1 430.7 1 433.9 403.9 409.4 393.6 28.0 28.3 28.1LIFDC 153.5 165.3 164.1 25.1 28.7 28.3 36.4 37.1 36.3LDC 85.3 93.2 93.2 17.2 21.2 20.5 58.0 59.0 58.2

APPENDIX TABLE 3(B): COARSE GRAIN STATISTICS

Total Utilization Stocks ending in Per caput food use

(. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . million tonnes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ) (. . . . . . . . . . . Kg/year . . . . . . . . . . . )

Sta

tist

ica

l a

pp

en

dix

60 61FOOD OUTLOOKNOVEMBER 2019

FOOD OUTLOOKNOVEMBER 2019

APPENDIX TABLE 4(A): MAIZE STATISTICS

2015-2017

average2018 2019

15/16-17/18average

2018/19 2019/2015/16-17/18

average2018/19 2019/20

estim. f'cast estim. f'cast estim. f'cast

ASIA 356.1 357.9 357.5 67.7 76.4 77.4 3.4 3.8 3.9China 262.7 257.3 254.2 7.9 9.5 8.1 0.1 - - of which Taiwan Prov. 0.2 0.2 0.2 4.3 5.0 5.0 - - -India 25.8 27.2 28.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.7 0.7 0.8Indonesia 21.4 25.7 26.3 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.2 - 0.1Iran, Islamic Republic of 1.2 0.9 1.1 7.4 9.2 9.9 - - -Japan - - - 15.2 16.0 16.5 - - -Korea, Republic.of 0.1 0.1 0.1 9.8 10.0 10.2 - - -Malaysia 0.1 0.1 0.1 3.8 3.5 3.6 - - -Pakistan 5.8 6.3 6.3 - - - - - -Philippines 7.5 7.8 7.7 0.6 0.7 0.7 - - -Thailand 4.7 5.0 5.1 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.2Turkey 6.2 5.7 6.0 1.5 2.5 3.0 0.1 - 0.1Viet Nam 5.2 4.9 4.9 8.5 9.8 10.0 0.1 0.4 0.3

AFRICA 76.7 83.0 78.8 22.7 20.5 23.8 3.8 3.8 3.6Algeria - - - 4.2 4.4 4.5 - - -Egypt 7.6 7.3 7.4 8.8 8.9 9.7 - - -Ethiopia 8.0 9.5 9.4 - - - 0.7 0.8 0.8Kenya 3.4 4.0 3.2 1.1 0.7 1.2 - - -Morocco 0.1 0.1 0.1 2.2 2.3 2.6 - - -Nigeria 10.1 11.0 11.0 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2South Africa 12.1 13.1 11.6 2.1 0.2 0.5 1.3 1.6 1.5Tanzania, United Rep. of 5.9 6.1 6.2 - - - 0.3 0.3 0.3

CENTRAL AMERICA 31.4 31.1 29.9 21.1 23.9 25.3 1.5 0.6 0.8Mexico 26.9 26.7 25.6 14.5 16.8 18.0 1.4 0.6 0.8

SOUTH AMERICA 136.8 137.0 169.5 13.4 14.3 13.8 51.3 56.8 71.1Argentina 41.0 43.5 57.0 - - - 22.3 28.5 32.8Brazil 82.2 80.7 100.0 1.5 1.2 0.6 26.7 26.5 36.0Chile 1.3 1.1 1.0 1.6 2.1 2.2 - - -Colombia 1.4 1.2 1.2 4.8 5.3 5.4 - - -Peru 1.6 1.6 1.5 3.2 3.4 3.6 - - -Venezuela 1.3 0.7 0.6 1.7 1.6 1.6 - - -

NORTH AMERICA 381.0 380.2 362.1 2.6 3.4 2.6 56.8 61.7 47.6Canada 13.9 13.9 14.1 1.2 2.6 1.6 1.6 2.2 1.6United States of America 367.1 366.3 348.0 1.4 0.7 1.0 55.1 59.5 46.0

EUROPE 110.9 128.2 124.3 15.7 25.2 18.4 28.1 39.1 34.4European Union 62.5 69.3 66.7 14.9 24.2 17.5 2.2 3.5 2.0Russian Federation 13.9 11.4 13.0 0.1 - - 5.3 2.9 4.4Serbia 5.6 7.0 6.7 - - - 1.6 2.4 1.0Ukraine 25.4 35.8 34.0 0.1 - - 18.6 29.8 26.5

OCEANIA 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1

WORLD 1 093.5 1 118.1 1 122.6 143.3 163.8 161.5 144.9 165.9 161.5LIFDC 81.9 88.6 87.9 15.0 16.6 17.6 2.6 3.0 2.9LDC 47.3 52.2 51.4 3.9 4.3 4.7 3.8 3.9 3.9

APPENDIX TABLE 4(A): MAIZE STATISTICS

Production Imports Exports

(. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . million tonnes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . )

60 61FOOD OUTLOOKNOVEMBER 2019

FOOD OUTLOOKNOVEMBER 2019

APPENDIX TABLE 4(B): MAIZE STATISTICS

15/16-17/18

average2018/19 2019/20

2016-2018average

2019 202015/16-17/18

average2018/19 2019/20

estim. f'cast estim. f'cast estim. f'cast

ASIA 410.7 439.9 448.0 221.1 211.9 193.5 9.3 9.4 9.3China 260.3 275.9 279.4 205.3 196.7 179.0 9.9 9.9 9.9 of which Taiwan Prov. 4.4 5.1 5.2 0.3 0.5 0.5 5.5 5.5 5.5India 25.1 27.1 28.3 1.4 1.5 1.0 6.3 6.4 6.4Indonesia 23.0 26.7 26.8 1.8 2.0 2.0 28.8 29.2 29.3Iran, Islamic Republic of 8.5 9.9 10.6 1.0 1.5 1.5 0.9 0.9 0.9Japan 15.2 15.7 16.3 1.8 1.7 1.9 0.8 0.8 0.8Korea, Republic.of 10.1 10.3 10.3 1.4 0.6 0.5 1.9 2.0 1.9Malaysia 3.8 3.6 3.7 0.1 0.2 0.2 1.8 2.0 2.0Pakistan 6.0 6.3 6.2 1.3 0.8 0.8 8.3 8.3 8.1Philippines 8.1 8.4 8.6 0.8 1.2 1.0 18.6 17.9 18.1Thailand 4.4 5.1 5.4 0.7 0.8 0.6 1.2 1.2 1.2Turkey 7.7 8.2 8.5 1.0 1.0 1.0 16.1 16.1 15.9Viet Nam 13.5 14.9 14.9 1.5 0.6 0.4 7.0 7.5 7.7

AFRICA 93.6 99.4 100.4 18.0 21.9 20.4 39.5 39.6 39.6Algeria 4.2 4.4 4.5 1.3 1.2 1.2 3.4 3.3 3.3Egypt 16.4 16.3 16.8 1.5 1.4 1.8 42.0 41.8 41.0Ethiopia 7.2 8.2 8.3 0.7 1.3 1.6 44.3 48.3 48.1Kenya 4.4 4.8 4.7 0.5 0.4 0.2 81.7 83.0 82.9Morocco 2.3 2.2 2.7 0.7 1.1 1.2 10.2 10.4 10.4Nigeria 10.4 10.6 11.2 1.2 2.0 2.0 33.0 31.1 31.1South Africa 11.6 12.5 11.8 2.5 2.7 1.5 88.8 89.7 89.1Tanzania, United Rep. of 5.7 5.9 6.0 1.3 1.1 1.0 69.7 69.6 69.1

CENTRAL AMERICA 50.4 54.4 55.0 7.7 8.1 7.5 96.8 98.2 98.0Mexico 39.3 42.6 43.2 4.9 5.8 5.4 130.8 131.2 131.5

SOUTH AMERICA 96.3 107.2 108.5 26.9 31.5 33.1 25.9 26.8 26.8Argentina 16.9 22.0 22.0 6.3 9.0 9.0 7.1 7.1 7.1Brazil 57.8 60.5 62.5 12.8 14.0 16.0 24.1 24.2 24.2Chile 2.5 3.0 3.1 2.4 2.8 2.8 21.2 21.4 21.2Colombia 6.1 6.6 6.6 0.9 1.1 1.1 41.3 50.6 51.0Peru 4.6 5.1 5.4 0.3 0.4 0.3 14.5 15.4 15.8Venezuela 3.4 2.6 2.2 0.7 - - 53.8 49.4 48.8

NORTH AMERICA 322.0 330.3 320.9 54.7 55.7 48.8 14.8 14.8 14.8Canada 13.1 15.2 14.0 2.4 2.0 1.8 3.2 3.2 3.1United States of America 308.9 315.2 307.0 52.3 53.7 47.0 16.1 16.1 16.1

EUROPE 99.2 109.6 108.0 18.7 27.3 27.5 8.1 8.1 8.1European Union 74.8 85.7 83.7 11.3 20.0 18.5 9.5 9.5 9.5Russian Federation 8.5 8.1 8.5 1.2 1.7 1.8 1.4 1.4 1.4Serbia 4.2 4.3 4.3 0.6 0.5 1.9 21.8 22.5 19.2Ukraine 7.9 7.6 7.6 3.3 1.0 0.9 11.2 11.1 11.1

OCEANIA 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.1 0.1 0.1 2.3 2.3 2.3

WORLD 1 072.9 1 141.6 1 141.5 347.0 356.4 331.0 17.9 18.1 18.2LIFDC 93.0 102.6 103.5 13.9 15.5 14.6 17.3 17.7 17.8LDC 46.9 52.4 52.8 8.2 9.9 9.2 27.6 28.1 28.1

APPENDIX TABLE 4(B): MAIZE STATISTICS

Total Utilization Stocks ending in Per caput food use

(. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . million tonnes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ) (. . . . . . . . . . . Kg/year . . . . . . . . . . . )

Sta

tist

ica

l a

pp

en

dix

62 63FOOD OUTLOOKNOVEMBER 2019

FOOD OUTLOOKNOVEMBER 2019

APPENDIX TABLE 5(A): BARLEY STATISTICS

2015-2017

average2018 2019

15/16-17/18average

2018/19 2019/2015/16-17/18

average2018/19 2019/20

estim. f'cast estim. f'cast estim. f'cast

ASIA 20.6 20.6 24.2 24.0 19.6 20.8 1.0 1.8 1.4China 1.9 1.8 2.0 7.9 5.5 5.5 - - -India 1.6 1.8 1.8 0.3 0.1 0.1 - - -Iran, Islamic Republic of 3.1 2.8 3.0 1.9 2.7 3.0 - - -Iraq 0.4 0.4 0.7 - - - - - -Japan 0.2 0.2 0.2 1.2 1.2 1.3 - - -Kazakhstan 3.1 4.0 4.5 - - - 1.0 1.8 1.3Saudi Arabia - - - 9.1 6.5 7.7 - - -Syrian Arab Republic 0.6 0.4 2.0 0.4 0.6 - - - -Turkey 7.3 7.0 7.6 0.5 0.3 0.3 - - -

AFRICA 6.2 7.7 6.5 3.1 2.5 3.0 - - -Algeria 1.0 2.0 2.0 0.7 0.6 0.6 - - -Ethiopia 2.0 1.8 1.8 - - - - - -Libya 0.1 0.1 0.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 - - -Morocco 2.2 2.9 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.8 - - -Tunisia 0.4 0.3 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.5 - - -

CENTRAL AMERICA 0.9 1.0 1.0 0.2 - - - - -Mexico 0.9 1.0 1.0 0.2 - - - - -

SOUTH AMERICA 5.1 6.5 6.4 1.1 1.2 1.1 2.8 3.0 2.6Argentina 4.0 5.1 5.0 - - - 2.7 2.9 2.5

NORTH AMERICA 12.4 11.7 13.7 0.3 0.2 0.3 1.7 2.5 2.0Canada 8.3 8.4 10.0 0.1 - - 1.6 2.4 1.9United States of America 4.1 3.3 3.7 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1

EUROPE 90.6 83.3 93.0 0.7 0.5 1.0 16.5 12.9 15.8Belarus 1.5 0.9 1.5 0.1 0.2 0.1 - - -European Union 60.2 56.5 61.9 0.4 0.1 0.7 7.2 4.6 5.5Russian Federation 18.7 17.0 19.0 0.1 - - 4.3 4.6 5.2Ukraine 8.7 7.3 9.0 - - - 4.8 3.6 5.0

OCEANIA 11.0 8.7 8.4 - - - 7.0 3.8 4.5Australia 10.6 8.3 8.0 - - - 7.0 3.8 4.5

WORLD 146.9 139.6 153.1 29.3 24.1 26.2 29.1 24.1 26.2LIFDC 5.4 4.9 6.6 0.8 0.9 0.4 - - -LDC 2.5 2.0 2.0 - - - - - -

APPENDIX TABLE 5(A): BARLEY STATISTICS

Production Imports Exports

(. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . million tonnes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . )

62 63FOOD OUTLOOKNOVEMBER 2019

FOOD OUTLOOKNOVEMBER 2019

APPENDIX TABLE 5(B): BARLEY STATISTICS

15/16-17/18

average2018/19 2019/20

2016-2018average

2019 202015/16-17/18

average2018/19 2019/20

estim. f'cast estim. f'cast estim. f'cast

ASIA 43.7 39.3 39.4 9.6 8.6 12.8 0.7 0.7 0.7China 9.8 7.9 6.0 2.4 2.2 3.6 0.2 0.2 0.2India 1.7 1.9 1.9 - - - 1.1 1.2 1.2Iran, Islamic Republic of 4.8 5.4 5.9 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.3 0.3 0.3Iraq 0.5 0.4 0.8 - - - 3.5 3.3 3.2Japan 1.4 1.4 1.5 0.2 0.2 0.2 2.3 2.4 2.4Kazakhstan 2.1 2.2 2.0 0.3 0.2 1.4 1.1 1.1 1.1Saudi Arabia 9.4 7.0 7.2 3.2 2.1 2.6 0.9 0.8 0.8Syrian Arab Republic 1.0 0.9 1.4 0.3 0.4 1.1 15.1 15.3 15.1Turkey 7.6 7.3 7.8 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0

AFRICA 9.5 9.7 9.7 1.7 2.0 1.7 2.6 2.3 2.3Algeria 1.8 2.0 2.6 0.4 0.8 0.8 12.3 11.9 11.7Ethiopia 2.1 1.8 1.8 0.2 - - 17.6 14.6 13.9Libya 1.2 1.1 1.1 - - - 13.5 13.3 13.1Morocco 2.8 2.9 2.4 0.6 0.5 0.2 19.5 19.1 19.1Tunisia 1.0 1.0 1.1 0.4 0.4 0.4 7.9 7.7 7.6

CENTRAL AMERICA 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 - - -Mexico 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 - - -

SOUTH AMERICA 3.7 4.1 4.4 0.5 0.9 0.9 0.5 0.5 0.4Argentina 1.4 1.6 1.9 0.4 0.8 0.8 - - -

NORTH AMERICA 10.9 10.0 10.9 3.8 2.8 3.8 0.5 0.5 0.5Canada 6.8 6.5 7.2 1.6 0.9 1.7 0.3 0.3 0.3United States of America 4.1 3.5 3.7 2.2 1.9 2.1 0.6 0.6 0.6

EUROPE 75.4 70.8 76.0 11.0 11.1 13.3 1.1 1.1 1.1Belarus 1.5 1.5 1.5 0.9 0.5 0.6 - - -European Union 54.0 50.5 56.1 6.5 7.5 8.5 0.7 0.7 0.7Russian Federation 14.4 13.6 13.1 2.2 1.4 2.2 1.8 1.8 1.8Ukraine 3.9 3.7 3.8 1.1 1.3 1.6 2.8 2.6 2.6

OCEANIA 3.7 3.7 3.7 1.9 1.5 1.7 0.2 0.1 0.1Australia 3.3 3.3 3.3 1.8 1.5 1.7 0.2 0.2 0.2

WORLD 147.9 138.7 145.1 28.6 27.0 34.4 1.0 1.0 0.9LIFDC 6.2 5.8 6.2 1.0 1.3 2.1 1.5 1.4 1.4LDC 2.5 2.0 2.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 2.0 1.6 1.6

APPENDIX TABLE 5(B): BARLEY STATISTICS

Total Utilization Stocks ending in Per caput food use

(. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . million tonnes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ) (. . . . . . . . . . . Kg/year . . . . . . . . . . . )

Sta

tist

ica

l a

pp

en

dix

64 65FOOD OUTLOOKNOVEMBER 2019

FOOD OUTLOOKNOVEMBER 2019

APPENDIX TABLE 6(A): SORGHUM STATISTICS

APPENDIX TABLE 7(A): OTHER COARSE GRAIN STATISTICS: MILLET - RYE - OATS AND OTHER GRAINS

2015-2017

average2018 2019

15/16-17/18average

2018/19 2019/2015/16-17/18

average2018/19 2019/20

estim. f'cast estim. f'cast estim. f'cast

ASIA 8.7 9.2 8.2 7.6 1.1 1.8 0.1 0.2 -China 3.0 3.4 3.5 6.9 0.5 1.1 - - -India 4.7 4.8 3.8 - - - 0.1 0.1 -Japan - - - 0.6 0.5 0.6 - - -

AFRICA 26.9 28.6 27.7 1.0 1.0 1.1 0.8 1.0 0.8Burkina Faso 1.5 1.9 1.6 - - - - - -Ethiopia 4.9 5.0 5.0 - - - 0.4 0.5 0.5Nigeria 6.2 6.0 6.3 - - - - - -Sudan 4.4 5.0 4.5 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2

CENTRAL AMERICA 5.4 5.1 4.8 0.4 0.4 0.5 - - -Mexico 5.0 4.8 4.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 - - -

SOUTH AMERICA 5.8 4.9 4.9 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.6 0.1 0.3Argentina 2.9 1.6 1.6 - - - 0.6 0.1 0.3Brazil 1.7 2.1 2.1 - - - - - -Venezuela 0.1 - - - - - - - -

NORTH AMERICA 12.2 9.3 8.9 0.1 - - 7.0 2.2 2.1United States of America 12.2 9.3 8.9 0.1 - - 7.0 2.2 2.1

EUROPE 1.1 1.1 1.2 0.2 0.8 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1European Union 0.7 0.8 1.0 0.2 0.8 0.2 - - -

OCEANIA 1.7 1.3 1.3 0.1 - - 0.7 0.2 0.4Australia 1.7 1.3 1.3 - - - 0.7 0.2 0.4

WORLD 61.7 59.4 57.0 9.5 3.4 3.8 9.5 3.8 3.8LIFDC 24.9 26.7 24.6 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.8 1.0 0.8LDC 19.0 20.6 19.6 0.7 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.9 0.7

APPENDIX TABLE 6(A): SORGHUM STATISTICS

Production Imports Exports

(. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . million tonnes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . )

2015-2017 average

2018 201915/16-17/18

average2018/19 2019/20

15/16-17/18average

2018/19 2019/20

estim. f'cast estim. f'cast estim. f'cast

ASIA 18.9 18.8 17.4 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.2 0.2 #VALUE!

AFRICA 19.4 23.2 21.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.5

CENTRAL AMERICA 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 - - -

SOUTH AMERICA 2.4 2.4 2.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1

NORTH AMERICA 5.7 5.4 5.9 1.8 1.8 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.3

EUROPE 46.1 39.8 44.1 0.4 0.8 0.5 0.7 1.1 0.7

OCEANIA 1.9 1.1 1.4 - 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.2

WORLD 94.4 90.8 92.8 3.5 4.0 3.8 3.8 4.0 3.8

APPENDIX TABLE 7(A): OTHER COARSE GRAIN STATISTICS: MILLET, RYE, OATS AND OTHER GRAINS

Production Imports Exports

(. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . million tonnes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . )

64 65FOOD OUTLOOKNOVEMBER 2019

FOOD OUTLOOKNOVEMBER 2019

APPENDIX TABLE 7(B): OTHER COARSE GRAIN STATISTICS: MILLET - RYE - OATS AND OTHER GRAINS

APPENDIX TABLE 6(B): SORGHUM STATISTICS

15/16-17/18

average2018/19 2019/20

2016-2018average

2019 202015/16-17/18

average2018/19 2019/20

estim. f'cast estim. f'cast estim. f'cast

ASIA 15.6 10.0 9.3 1.2 1.4 2.0 1.3 1.3 1.1China 9.1 3.8 4.0 0.8 1.0 1.6 0.5 0.5 0.5India 4.7 4.7 3.8 0.4 - - 3.5 3.4 2.7Japan 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.1 0.1 0.1 - - -

AFRICA 27.7 28.7 28.3 3.9 3.7 3.4 18.0 17.7 17.3Burkina Faso 1.6 1.8 1.6 0.4 0.5 0.5 74.4 84.8 72.8Ethiopia 4.4 4.5 4.5 0.6 0.8 0.8 32.4 31.7 31.8Nigeria 6.4 6.0 6.3 0.1 - - 32.2 28.6 29.2Sudan 4.7 5.2 4.8 0.7 0.3 0.1 95.3 92.8 89.4

CENTRAL AMERICA 5.8 5.4 5.4 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.5Mexico 5.5 5.1 5.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 - - -

SOUTH AMERICA 5.7 5.0 4.6 1.6 1.1 1.1 0.1 0.0 0.0Argentina 2.4 1.6 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.1 - - -Brazil 1.8 2.1 2.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 - - -Venezuela 0.1 - 0.1 - - - - - -

NORTH AMERICA 5.5 6.2 6.6 0.9 1.6 1.3 0.1 0.1 0.1United States of America 5.5 6.2 6.6 0.9 1.6 1.3 0.1 0.1 0.1

EUROPE 1.2 1.4 1.0 0.3 0.8 1.1 0.2 0.2 0.2European Union 0.9 1.3 0.8 0.2 0.7 1.1 0.3 0.3 0.3

OCEANIA 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.9 0.2 0.2 0.2Australia 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.9 - - -

WORLD 62.2 57.6 56.1 9.1 9.7 10.2 3.8 3.8 3.6LIFDC 25.4 26.6 25.0 4.0 3.7 3.4 8.2 8.3 7.7LDC 19.2 20.5 19.9 3.6 3.5 3.2 15.0 15.3 14.7

APPENDIX TABLE 6(B): SORGHUM STATISTICS

Total Utilization Stocks ending in Per caput food use

(. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . million tonnes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ) (. . . . . . . . . . . Kg/year . . . . . . . . . . . )

15/16-17/18average

2018/19 2019/202016-2018

average2019 2020

15/16-17/18average

2018/19 2019/20

estim. f'cast estim. f'cast estim. f'cast

ASIA 20.0 19.7 18.6 1.9 1.1 0.8 3.5 3.4 3.3

AFRICA 18.5 20.7 20.8 5.5 8.4 8.5 11.8 12.6 12.1

CENTRAL AMERICA 0.3 0.4 0.3 - - - 0.2 0.2 0.2

SOUTH AMERICA 2.3 2.4 2.6 0.7 0.7 0.6 1.1 1.1 1.2

NORTH AMERICA 5.4 5.6 5.8 1.7 1.1 1.2 2.6 2.6 2.6

EUROPE 47.1 43.0 41.9 9.3 4.9 7.0 11.0 10.9 11.0

OCEANIA 1.6 1.2 1.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 5.5 5.3 5.3

WORLD 95.2 92.8 91.2 19.2 16.3 18.0 5.3 5.4 5.4

APPENDIX TABLE 7(B): OTHER COARSE GRAIN STATISTICS: MILLET, RYE, OATS AND OTHER GRAINS

Total Utilization Stocks ending in Per caput food use

(. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . million tonnes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ) (. . . . . . . . . . . Kg/year . . . . . . . . . . . )

Sta

tist

ica

l a

pp

en

dix

66 67FOOD OUTLOOKNOVEMBER 2019

FOOD OUTLOOKNOVEMBER 2019

APPENDIX TABLE 8(A): RICE STATISTICS

2015-2017

average2018 2019

2016-2018average

2019 20202016-2018

average2019 2020

estim. f'cast estim. f'cast estim. f'cast

ASIA 454.1 466.7 466.1 21.3 20.0 19.9 38.2 38.8 40.4Bangladesh 34.8 36.1 36.6 1.4 0.2 0.3 - - -China 146.4 146.6 144.6 6.0 4.5 4.1 1.3 3.0 3.4 of which Taiwan Prov. 1.2 1.3 1.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 -India 109.0 116.4 115.8 - - - 11.5 11.2 12.1Indonesia 45.9 46.7 46.8 1.3 0.4 0.4 - - -Iran, Islamic Republic of 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.3 1.6 1.5 - - -Iraq 0.1 0.1 0.1 1.0 1.3 1.3 - - -Japan 7.6 7.4 7.4 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.1 0.1 0.1Korea, Republic of 4.2 3.9 3.9 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.1 -Malaysia 1.8 1.8 1.8 0.9 1.1 1.2 - - -Myanmar 17.2 18.2 18.3 - - - 2.3 2.3 2.5Pakistan 7.0 7.2 7.3 - - - 3.9 4.4 4.5Philippines 12.1 12.2 12.3 1.4 3.0 2.9 - - -Saudi Arabia - - - 1.2 1.3 1.4 - - -Sri Lanka 2.6 2.7 3.2 0.5 - - - - -Thailand 20.4 21.2 21.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 10.9 8.8 8.6Viet Nam 28.4 28.6 28.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 6.4 7.0 7.2

AFRICA 21.3 22.0 21.4 16.2 17.3 18.6 0.6 0.4 0.3Cote D'ivoire 0.5 0.5 0.5 1.6 1.8 1.9 - - -Egypt 4.3 3.4 3.4 0.1 0.6 0.4 0.2 - -Madagascar 2.4 2.2 2.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 - - -Nigeria 4.6 5.3 4.8 2.4 2.4 2.9 - - -Senegal 0.7 0.8 0.8 1.4 1.2 1.4 - - -South Africa - - - 0.9 0.9 0.9 - - -Tanzania, United Rep. of 1.9 2.0 2.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2

CENTRAL AMERICA 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.5 2.3 2.4 0.1 0.1 -Cuba 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.5 - - -Mexico 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.1 - -

SOUTH AMERICA 16.7 16.9 15.4 1.9 1.9 2.1 3.3 3.3 3.3Argentina 1.0 0.9 0.8 - - - 0.4 0.4 0.5Brazil 8.0 8.2 7.1 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.6Peru 2.1 2.4 2.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1Uruguay 1.0 0.9 0.8 - - - 0.9 0.7 0.8

NORTH AMERICA 6.3 7.1 6.0 1.2 1.3 1.3 3.2 3.0 3.1Canada - - - 0.4 0.4 0.4 - - -United States of America 6.3 7.1 6.0 0.8 0.9 0.9 3.2 3.0 3.1

EUROPE 2.6 2.4 2.5 2.4 2.7 2.8 0.5 0.5 0.5European Union 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.9 2.2 2.2 0.3 0.3 0.3Russian Federation 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2

OCEANIA 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.1 -Australia 0.4 0.4 - 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 -

WORLD 503.1 517.5 513.4 46.0 46.2 47.7 46.0 46.2 47.7LIFDC 190.2 200.1 200.2 15.9 15.2 16.4 18.4 18.6 19.5LDC 75.3 79.5 79.9 11.9 10.7 11.7 4.2 4.5 4.6

APPENDIX TABLE 8(A): RICE STATISTICS

Production Imports Exports

(. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . million tonnes, milled equivalent . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . )

66 67FOOD OUTLOOKNOVEMBER 2019

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APPENDIX TABLE 8(B): RICE STATISTICS

15/16-17/18

average2018/19 2019/20

2016-2018average

2019 202015/16-17/18

average2018/19 2019/20

estim. f'cast estim. f'cast estim. f'cast

ASIA 437.0 441.3 447.0 160.3 172.2 171.4 77.4 77.2 77.8Bangladesh 36.2 36.8 37.1 5.8 6.6 6.4 180.7 180.3 181.7China 146.9 147.9 148.3 100.6 105.9 103.4 76.6 76.6 76.6 of which Taiwan Prov. 1.3 1.3 1.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 48.3 48.4 48.7India 97.6 98.6 102.2 20.1 28.8 30.4 68.2 68.0 69.5Indonesia 46.8 47.9 47.9 6.6 7.3 6.6 133.9 133.9 134.9Iran, Islamic Republic of 3.2 3.3 3.4 0.6 0.7 0.8 35.3 35.7 36.1Iraq 1.2 1.3 1.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 33.0 33.5 34.0Japan 8.5 8.0 7.9 3.2 3.0 3.2 49.9 49.3 49.1Korea, Republic of 4.7 4.5 4.2 1.6 0.8 0.9 76.0 74.2 72.8Malaysia 2.7 2.8 2.8 0.3 0.2 0.3 80.2 79.5 81.2Myanmar 15.0 15.4 15.6 2.7 3.0 3.3 193.8 196.7 197.1Pakistan 3.0 3.1 3.1 0.7 0.6 0.4 12.6 12.5 12.5Philippines 13.5 14.9 15.3 2.3 2.6 2.9 114.9 117.7 119.9Saudi Arabia 1.4 1.3 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.1 41.5 38.4 38.2Sri Lanka 3.0 2.8 3.0 0.5 0.3 0.5 123.1 122.7 124.8Thailand 13.4 11.8 12.5 8.2 5.4 5.6 98.8 98.2 100.6Viet Nam 22.0 22.4 22.1 3.1 3.0 3.2 154.0 153.3 152.0

AFRICA 36.4 39.2 39.7 5.6 5.4 4.9 25.9 26.8 26.8Cote D'ivoire 2.1 2.3 2.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 80.6 86.3 87.4Egypt 4.0 4.3 4.0 0.7 0.6 0.5 38.2 39.4 37.0Madagascar 2.8 2.8 3.0 0.3 0.2 0.3 99.0 97.5 99.2Nigeria 7.2 7.7 7.7 1.0 1.0 0.9 33.4 34.1 33.4Senegal 2.0 2.2 2.2 0.4 0.3 0.3 118.8 122.0 121.2South Africa 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.1 0.2 0.1 15.7 16.0 15.9Tanzania, United Rep. of 2.0 2.0 2.1 0.4 0.3 0.3 27.3 28.2 28.8

CENTRAL AMERICA 4.1 4.2 4.3 0.5 0.6 0.6 17.8 17.9 18.1Cuba 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.1 - 0.1 67.4 67.0 67.0Mexico 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.1 0.1 0.1 6.4 6.4 6.6

SOUTH AMERICA 15.2 15.0 14.8 2.4 2.4 1.9 31.9 31.1 30.9Argentina 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 10.3 10.7 9.8Brazil 7.9 7.6 7.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 34.5 33.0 32.3Peru 2.4 2.5 2.4 0.3 0.4 0.3 65.2 65.9 65.5Uruguay 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 10.9 11.8 12.0

NORTH AMERICA 4.4 5.0 4.6 1.3 1.5 1.2 9.4 9.7 9.7Canada 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.1 - - 10.4 10.5 10.6United States of America 4.0 4.6 4.2 1.3 1.4 1.2 9.3 9.6 9.6

EUROPE 4.5 4.6 4.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 5.2 5.4 5.4European Union 3.3 3.5 3.6 0.5 0.6 0.7 5.5 5.8 5.8Russian Federation 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.1 0.1 0.1 4.9 4.9 4.9

OCEANIA 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.2 0.3 0.2 16.0 16.4 16.6Australia 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 10.8 11.1 11.2

WORLD 502.2 510.1 515.9 171.1 183.1 180.9 53.8 53.8 54.2LIFDC 186.9 191.2 195.6 33.4 42.8 44.1 64.1 63.8 64.6LDC 82.7 85.8 87.1 14.1 15.3 15.1 66.1 65.6 65.6

Note: Totals and percentage changes are computed from unrounded data.

APPENDIX TABLE 8(B): RICE STATISTICS

Total Utilization Stocks ending in Per caput food use

(. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . million tonnes, milled equivalent . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . )(. . . . . . . . . . . . Kg/year . . . . . . . . . . . . )

Sta

tist

ica

l a

pp

en

dix

68 69FOOD OUTLOOKNOVEMBER 2019

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APPENDIX TABLE 9: CEREAL SUPPLY AND UTILIZATION IN SELECTED EXPORTERS (million tonnes)

2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20estim. f'cast estim. f'cast estim. f'cast

Opening Stocks 32.1 29.9 29.4 62.2 57.9 57.8 1.5 0.9 1.4Production 47.4 51.3 53.4 384.8 380.3 362.0 5.7 7.1 6.0Imports 4.3 3.7 3.3 3.0 2.7 3.5 0.9 0.9 0.9

Total Supply 83.8 84.9 86.1 450.0 440.9 423.3 8.1 8.9 8.3Domestic use 29.2 30.0 31.8 324.7 328.1 320.5 4.3 4.6 4.2Exports 24.7 25.5 25.9 67.3 55.0 51.7 2.8 3.0 3.0Closing stocks 29.9 29.4 28.4 57.9 57.8 51.0 0.9 1.4 1.2

Opening Stocks 6.9 6.5 5.9 5.5 4.6 3.4 8.2 5.6 5.4Production 30.4 32.2 32.5 26.4 26.3 28.6 21.8 21.2 21.3Imports 0.1 0.1 0.1 1.8 2.9 1.7 0.2 0.3 0.4

Total Supply 37.4 38.8 38.5 33.7 33.8 33.7 30.2 27.1 27.1Domestic use 9.0 8.5 8.7 23.2 24.0 23.7 13.2 11.8 12.5Exports 21.9 24.3 23.8 5.9 6.3 5.9 11.5 9.9 9.0Closing stocks 6.5 5.9 6.0 4.6 3.4 4.1 5.6 5.4 5.6

Opening Stocks 1.3 1.6 2.0 5.9 10.6 9.9 19.5 21.8 28.8Production 18.5 19.5 19.6 56.4 50.8 64.3 112.8 116.4 115.8Imports 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0

Total Supply 19.8 21.1 21.6 62.4 61.5 74.3 132.3 138.2 144.6Domestic use 5.8 6.2 5.8 22.7 25.9 25.9 98.2 98.6 102.2Exports 12.5 12.8 13.5 29.0 25.7 38.4 12.3 10.8 12.0Closing stocks 1.6 2.0 2.3 10.6 9.9 9.9 21.8 28.8 30.4

Opening Stocks 6.0 4.4 4.2 3.0 3.2 2.3 0.7 0.9 0.6Production 20.9 17.3 17.5 12.1 11.1 11.1 7.5 7.2 7.3Imports 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Total Supply 26.9 21.7 21.7 15.1 14.3 13.4 8.2 8.1 7.9Domestic use 8.7 9.1 9.2 5.7 5.6 5.6 3.1 3.1 3.1Exports 13.8 8.5 9.5 6.2 6.4 5.1 4.1 4.4 4.4Closing stocks 4.4 4.2 3.0 3.2 2.3 2.7 0.9 0.6 0.4

Opening Stocks 12.9 20.2 14.5 21.9 24.9 30.0 3.3 3.1 3.0Production 152.0 138.6 154.0 156.0 154.3 161.1 27.8 28.6 28.7Imports 5.5 5.4 5.0 18.4 25.9 18.8 0.7 0.6 0.6

Total Supply 170.4 164.2 173.5 196.3 205.1 209.9 31.8 32.3 32.3Domestic use 127.4 127.2 129.6 164.3 167.0 169.5 22.3 22.4 22.1Exports 22.7 22.6 27.0 7.1 8.0 7.9 6.3 6.8 7.0Closing stocks 20.2 14.5 17.0 24.9 30.0 32.5 3.1 3.0 3.2

Opening Stocks 59.2 62.6 56.0 98.5 101.2 103.4 33.2 32.3 39.2Production 269.2 258.9 277.0 635.7 622.8 627.1 175.6 180.5 179.1Imports 9.9 9.2 8.4 23.3 31.6 24.1 1.8 1.8 1.9

Total Supply 338.3 330.7 341.4 757.5 755.6 754.6 210.6 214.6 220.2Domestic use 180.1 181.0 185.1 540.6 550.6 545.2 141.1 140.5 144.1Exports 95.6 93.7 99.7 115.5 101.4 109.0 37.0 34.9 35.4Closing stocks 62.6 56.0 56.7 101.2 103.4 100.2 32.3 39.2 40.81 Trade data include wheat flour in wheat grain equivalent. For the EU semolina is also included.

CANADA (August/July) CANADA THAILAND (Aug/July)

ARGENTINA (Dec./Nov.) ARGENTINA INDIA (Oct./Sept.)

APPENDIX TABLE 9: CEREAL SUPPLY AND UTILIZATION IN SELECTED EXPORTERS (million tonnes)

Wheat 1 Coarse Grains 2 Rice (milled basis)

UNITED STATES of AMERICA (Aug/Jul)UNITED STATES of AMERICA (Jun/May) UNITED STATES of AMERICA

2 Argentina (December/November) for rye, barley and oats, (March/February) for maize and sorghum. Australia (November/October) for rye, barley and oats, (March/February) for maize and sorghum. Canada (August/July), EU (July/June), United States of America(June/May) for rye, barley and oats, (September/August) for maize and sorghum.

PAKISTAN (Sept./Aug.)

EU (July/June) EU VIET NAM (Jan./Dec.)

TOTAL OF ABOVE TOTAL OF ABOVE TOTAL OF ABOVE

AUSTRALIA (Oct./Sept.) AUSTRALIA

68 69FOOD OUTLOOKNOVEMBER 2019

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APPENDIX TABLE 10: TOTAL OILCROPS STATISTICS (million tonnes)

15/16-17/18

average2018/19 2019/20

15/16-17/18 average

2018/19 2019/2015/16-17/18

average2018/19 2019/20

estim. f'cast estim. f'cast estim. f'cast

ASIA 133.7 143.2 145.2 128.4 123.8 126.8 3.8 3.6 3.5China 58.0 61.5 63.0 98.5 90.7 93.1 1.0 0.8 0.8 of which Taiwan Prov. 0.1 0.1 0.1 2.6 2.6 2.7 - - -India 38.0 41.2 41.1 0.4 0.2 0.4 1.2 1.2 1.1Indonesia 11.7 13.4 13.8 2.7 3.0 3.3 0.1 0.1 0.1Iran, Islamic Republic of 0.8 0.9 0.9 2.2 2.4 2.5 0.1 0.1 0.1Japan 0.3 0.2 0.2 6.0 6.1 6.2 - - -Korea, Republic of 0.2 0.2 0.2 1.6 1.6 1.7 - - -Malaysia 4.9 5.3 5.2 0.9 1.0 1.0 0.1 - -Pakistan 4.2 4.3 4.5 3.0 4.0 3.8 - - -Thailand 1.1 1.2 1.2 2.8 2.9 3.0 - - -Turkey 3.3 3.6 3.7 3.0 3.3 2.9 0.2 0.2 0.2

AFRICA 20.4 21.2 20.9 3.9 5.4 6.1 0.8 1.0 0.9Nigeria 4.6 4.7 4.6 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1

CENTRAL AMERICA 2.1 2.0 2.1 7.0 8.8 8.7 0.2 0.2 0.2Mexico 1.4 1.3 1.4 6.3 7.9 7.8 - - -

SOUTH AMERICA 186.3 198.0 206.2 4.3 8.8 5.7 80.4 93.3 94.8Argentina 55.4 61.0 59.3 2.3 6.7 3.5 7.2 10.0 10.1Brazil 114.1 121.4 128.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 64.9 75.3 75.4Paraguay 10.1 8.7 10.8 - - - 5.7 5.2 5.5Uruguay 2.7 3.1 3.3 - - - 2.4 2.7 2.8

NORTH AMERICA 153.3 160.2 135.6 2.3 2.7 2.1 74.4 65.7 65.0Canada 27.9 28.9 27.0 0.7 1.5 0.7 16.2 16.2 15.3United States of America 125.3 131.3 108.6 1.6 1.3 1.4 58.2 49.5 49.7

EUROPE 70.8 78.8 77.0 23.1 25.5 26.4 7.0 9.3 9.6European Union 33.5 33.6 30.5 20.3 22.0 22.9 1.0 0.9 0.9Russian Federation 15.5 19.4 20.6 2.1 2.7 2.7 0.9 2.2 2.5Ukraine 19.5 22.7 22.8 - - - 4.4 5.3 5.4

OCEANIA 5.4 3.6 3.9 - - - 3.0 1.9 1.6Australia 5.0 3.1 3.4 - - - 2.9 1.8 1.5

WORLD 571.9 607.0 590.9 168.9 175.1 175.5 169.6 175.1 175.5LIFDC 55.2 58.3 58.4 4.2 4.4 4.9 2.1 2.2 2.0LDC 32.9 33.7 34.1 9.8 13.0 13.6 1.4 1.7 1.5

1 The split years bring together northern hemisphere annual crops harvested in the latter part of the first year shown, with southern hemisphere annual crops harvested in the early part of the second year shown; for tree crops which are produced throughout the year, calendar year production for the second year shown is used.

APPENDIX TABLE 10: TOTAL OILCROPS STATISTICS (million tonnes)

Production 1 Imports Exports

Sta

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ica

l a

pp

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70 71FOOD OUTLOOKNOVEMBER 2019

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APPENDIX TABLE 11: TOTAL OILS AND FATS STATISTICS1 (million tonnes)

15/16-17/18

average2018/19 2019/20

15/16-17/18 average

2018/19 2019/2015/16-17/18

average2018/19 2019/20

estim. f'cast estim. f'cast estim. f'cast

ASIA 47.4 53.8 55.2 50.8 56.3 57.2 116.4 130.1 134.1Bangladesh 2.3 2.6 2.7 - - - 2.7 3.0 3.1China 9.8 12.9 13.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 40.3 44.1 45.2 of which Taiwan Prov. 0.5 0.5 0.5 - - - 0.9 1.0 1.0India 15.3 15.7 16.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 25.2 26.7 27.3Indonesia 0.1 0.1 0.1 28.6 31.8 33.1 12.8 17.1 18.7Iran, Islamic Republic of 1.2 1.7 1.4 0.1 - - 2.0 2.4 2.4Japan 1.3 1.4 1.4 - - - 3.3 3.4 3.4Korea, Republic of 1.2 1.4 1.4 - - - 1.6 1.7 1.7Malaysia 1.3 1.9 1.8 17.7 19.9 19.5 4.9 5.4 5.8Pakistan 3.3 3.5 3.6 0.1 0.1 0.1 5.2 5.7 5.7Philippines 1.2 1.4 1.4 0.8 1.1 0.9 2.1 2.4 2.3Singapore 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.7 0.7 0.7Turkey 1.8 1.7 1.7 0.6 0.5 0.6 3.2 3.3 3.3

AFRICA 11.5 12.2 12.2 1.8 1.9 2.0 18.8 19.7 20.0Algeria 0.9 1.0 1.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 1.0 1.1 1.0Egypt 2.1 2.1 2.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 2.5 2.8 2.8Nigeria 1.4 1.5 1.5 0.1 0.1 0.1 3.2 3.3 3.4South Africa 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.1 - - 1.5 1.6 1.6

CENTRAL AMERICA 2.6 2.5 2.5 1.5 1.8 1.8 5.3 5.8 5.7Mexico 1.5 1.5 1.5 0.1 - - 3.6 3.9 3.8

SOUTH AMERICA 3.2 3.2 3.2 10.3 10.6 10.9 18.2 19.5 20.0Argentina 0.1 - 0.1 6.1 6.8 7.2 4.1 4.2 4.1Brazil 0.6 0.6 0.6 1.7 1.3 1.2 9.2 10.3 10.8Paraguay - - - 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.1 0.1 0.1Uruguay 0.1 0.1 0.1 - - - 0.1 0.1 0.1

NORTH AMERICA 5.6 5.5 5.6 7.2 7.3 7.0 21.7 23.0 23.4Canada 0.5 0.4 0.4 3.8 4.0 3.9 1.6 1.6 1.7United States of America 5.1 5.1 5.2 3.5 3.3 3.2 20.1 21.4 21.7

EUROPE 15.1 15.9 15.8 12.1 14.1 14.3 39.8 41.4 41.0European Union 12.3 12.7 12.6 3.2 3.2 3.0 33.0 34.2 33.9Russian Federation 1.4 1.7 1.7 2.9 3.9 4.4 4.5 4.9 4.8Ukraine 0.3 0.3 0.3 5.5 6.4 6.4 0.9 0.9 0.9

OCEANIA 0.7 0.8 0.8 1.9 2.0 2.0 1.3 1.4 1.4Australia 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.1

WORLD 86.0 94.0 95.3 85.7 94.0 95.3 221.4 240.9 245.7LIFDC 25.2 26.5 27.2 1.6 1.6 1.6 40.4 42.9 43.7LDC 25.1 27.2 27.6 3.3 3.4 3.5 36.1 38.8 39.3

1 Includes oils and fats of vegetable, marine and animal origin.

APPENDIX TABLE 11: TOTAL OILS AND FATS STATISTICS 1 (million tonnes)

Imports Exports Utilization

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APPENDIX TABLE 12: TOTAL MEALS AND CAKES STATISTICS1 (million tonnes)

15/16-17/18

average2018/19 2019/20

15/16-17/18 average

2018/19 2019/2015/16-17/18

average2018/19 2019/20

estim. f'cast estim. f'cast estim. f'cast

ASIA 37.7 43.0 44.2 13.5 15.2 14.4 170.2 177.2 180.5China 3.6 5.4 6.2 1.8 1.4 1.1 94.7 95.8 97.1 of which Taiwan Prov. 0.5 0.4 0.5 - - - 2.5 2.6 2.6India 0.5 0.5 0.5 2.2 3.4 2.7 15.3 16.3 17.2Indonesia 4.5 4.8 5.0 4.7 5.5 5.7 5.1 5.3 5.4Iran, Islamic Republic of 1.6 3.0 2.5 - 0.1 - 3.7 4.9 5.0Japan 2.2 2.3 2.2 - - - 6.5 6.6 6.6Korea, Republic of 3.4 3.6 3.7 0.1 0.1 0.1 4.7 4.8 4.9Malaysia 1.5 1.5 1.6 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.3 2.5 2.6Pakistan 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.1 4.4 4.9 4.9Philippines 2.8 3.1 3.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 3.4 3.7 3.8Saudi Arabia 1.4 1.7 1.7 0.1 0.1 0.1 1.9 2.4 2.3Thailand 3.4 3.6 3.6 0.2 0.2 0.2 6.4 6.8 6.8Turkey 2.2 2.2 2.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 5.8 6.2 6.1Viet Nam 5.8 6.1 6.6 0.3 0.3 0.3 7.5 7.8 8.2

AFRICA 5.9 4.8 4.8 1.1 1.2 1.2 14.0 14.4 14.9Egypt 1.6 0.4 0.5 - - - 3.4 3.4 3.7South Africa 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.1 0.1 0.1 2.0 2.1 2.1

CENTRAL AMERICA 4.3 4.1 4.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 10.3 10.9 11.2Mexico 2.4 2.2 2.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 7.7 8.2 8.5

SOUTH AMERICA 5.3 5.6 5.7 51.0 52.3 54.3 32.8 35.7 36.3Argentina - - - 30.5 30.3 32.2 7.1 8.1 7.9Bolivia - - - 1.7 1.8 1.5 0.3 0.3 0.3Brazil - - - 14.9 16.2 16.6 17.6 19.2 19.9Chile 1.1 1.0 1.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 1.5 1.4 1.5Paraguay - - - 2.5 2.4 2.6 0.4 0.5 0.5Peru 1.2 1.4 1.4 0.9 1.1 1.0 1.7 1.9 1.9Uruguay 0.2 0.2 0.2 - - 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2Venezuela 0.8 0.7 0.7 - - - 1.0 0.9 0.9

NORTH AMERICA 5.1 5.3 5.0 17.3 18.5 18.7 39.7 41.7 42.2Canada 1.0 1.1 1.1 5.4 5.5 5.4 2.5 2.8 3.0United States of America 4.1 4.2 4.0 11.9 13.0 13.3 37.2 38.9 39.2

EUROPE 30.2 30.9 31.4 8.5 9.9 10.0 69.7 73.7 74.9European Union 27.7 28.6 29.1 1.4 1.3 1.1 58.6 61.8 62.4Russian Federation 0.4 0.1 0.1 1.9 2.6 2.9 6.7 7.1 7.4Ukraine - - - 4.6 5.4 5.4 1.7 2.1 2.3

OCEANIA 3.4 3.7 3.7 0.3 0.2 0.2 4.3 4.4 4.6Australia 1.1 1.5 1.5 0.1 0.1 0.1 1.9 2.2 2.3

WORLD 91.9 97.4 99.1 91.9 97.4 99.1 341.1 358.0 364.5LIFDC 8.3 8.8 9.4 3.3 4.5 3.9 30.5 31.9 33.6LDC 8.3 7.1 7.1 2.6 2.7 2.7 24.9 26.2 26.8

1 Expressed in product weight; includes meals and cakes derived from oilcrops as well as fish meal and other meals from animal origin.

APPENDIX TABLE 12: TOTAL MEALS AND CAKES STATISTICS 1

Imports Exports Utilization

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APPENDIX TABLE 13: SUGAR STATISTICS

(million tonnes - raw value)

2018/19 2019/20 2018/19 2019/20 2018/19 2019/20 2018/19 2019/20estim. f'cast estim. f'cast estim. f'cast estim. f'cast

ASIA 75.4 69.3 33.3 33.8 18.0 18.1 84.9 85.9

Bangladesh 0.1 0.1 2.4 2.5 0.1 0.1 2.5 2.6China 10.8 10.9 6.3 6.7 0.2 0.4 17.0 17.2India 32.4 28.0 1.8 1.5 3.7 3.8 26.0 26.2Indonesia 2.3 2.4 4.8 4.9 - - 7.1 7.2Japan 0.8 0.8 1.4 1.3 0.0 0.0 2.1 2.1Korea, Republic of - - 1.9 1.9 0.3 0.3 1.6 1.6Malaysia - - 2.1 2.1 0.1 0.1 2.0 2.0Pakistan 5.9 5.2 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.2 5.8 5.9Philippines 2.1 2.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 2.0 2.0Thailand 14.4 12.9 - - 10.6 10.2 2.9 2.9Turkey 2.7 2.7 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.4 2.4 2.4Viet Nam 1.4 1.2 0.3 0.5 0.0 0.1 1.6 1.6

AFRICA 11.8 12.0 12.4 12.4 4.1 4.1 19.5 20.2Algeria - - 2.5 2.6 0.5 0.5 1.5 1.5Egypt 2.5 2.7 1.1 0.8 0.2 0.2 3.4 3.5Eswatini 0.8 0.8 - - 0.7 0.7 0.1 0.1Ethiopia 0.6 0.6 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.6 0.7Kenya 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 - - 1.1 1.1Mauritius 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0Morocco 0.6 0.6 1.0 0.7 0.4 0.2 1.2 1.2Mozambique 0.5 0.5 - - 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3South Africa 2.2 2.2 0.2 0.2 0.7 0.7 1.7 1.7Sudan 0.6 0.6 1.3 1.6 0.2 0.4 1.8 1.9Tanzania, United Rep. of 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.6Zambia 0.4 0.4 - - 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2

CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE CARRIBEAN 14.8 15.0 0.4 0.4 6.2 6.7 8.2 8.3Cuba 1.3 1.6 - - 0.8 1.0 0.5 0.5Dominican Republic 0.6 0.6 0.0 - 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4Guatemala 3.0 3.0 - - 2.0 2.1 0.8 0.9Mexico 7.0 6.9 0.0 0.0 1.5 1.6 4.7 4.8

SOUTH AMERICA 38.5 38.9 1.4 1.4 19.7 20.3 20.1 20.3Argentina 1.8 1.9 - - 0.3 0.4 1.5 1.5Brazil 30.8 31.1 - - 17.9 18.5 12.7 12.9Colombia 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1Peru 1.3 1.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 1.5 1.5Venezuela 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 - - 0.6 0.6

NORTH AMERICA 8.9 8.9 3.9 4.1 0.1 0.1 13.3 13.5Canada 0.1 0.1 1.2 1.1 0.0 0.0 1.2 1.3United States 8.8 8.8 2.7 3.1 0.0 0.0 12.0 12.2

EUROPE 25.8 26.1 3.5 3.6 3.5 2.8 27.7 28.0European Union 16.7 16.8 2.7 2.8 2.2 1.3 18.9 19.0Russian Federation 6.0 6.3 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.8 5.8 6.0Ukraine 1.8 1.6 - - 0.4 0.3 1.5 1.5

OCEANIA 5.0 5.0 0.4 0.4 4.1 4.2 1.3 1.3Australia 4.7 4.7 0.1 0.1 3.9 4.0 0.9 1.0Fiji 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0

WORLD 180.1 175.1 55.3 56.2 55.6 56.3 175.0 177.5LIFDC 39.9 35.3 12.0 12.9 5.4 5.8 42.2 43.0LDC 4.7 4.7 8.4 9.2 1.4 1.5 11.8 12.4

Utilization

APPENDIX TABLE 13: SUGAR STATISTICS(million tonnes, raw value)

Production Imports Exports

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APPENDIX TABLE 14: TOTAL MEAT STATISTICS

(thousand tonnes - carcass weight equivalent)

2018 2019 2018 2019 2018 2019 2018 2019estim. f'cast estim. f'cast estim. f'cast estim. f'cast

ASIA 141 518 134 770 18 208 20 198 4 695 4 828 154 998 150 143China 87 014 79 972 5 482 7 385 637 597 91 879 86 760India 7 463 7 508 1 2 1 472 1 534 5 993 5 975Indonesia 3 334 3 430 214 267 6 6 3 541 3 690Iran, Islamic Republic of 3 073 3 129 197 198 56 53 3 214 3 273Japan 4 022 4 081 3 687 3 746 19 19 7 701 7 801Korea, Republic of 2 513 2 585 1 493 1 514 43 50 3 871 4 020Malaysia 2 008 2 032 342 339 67 67 2 283 2 305Pakistan 3 784 3 925 26 29 57 62 3 753 3 892Philippines 3 576 3 720 628 622 6 9 4 199 4 332Saudi Arabia 996 1 018 866 864 78 86 1 783 1 796Singapore 117 116 367 381 56 40 428 457Thailand 2 836 2 912 32 29 1 304 1 440 1 572 1 539Turkey 3 721 3 838 67 19 531 548 3 276 3 310Viet Nam 5 273 4 710 1 599 1 523 28 18 6 845 6 215

AFRICA 19 165 19 188 2 992 3 003 255 246 21 902 21 946Algeria 734 740 63 62 2 2 796 801Angola 301 313 541 500 - - 842 812Egypt 2 228 2 286 334 364 8 6 2 553 2 644Nigeria 1 423 1 421 3 3 1 1 1 425 1 423South Africa 3 210 3 160 641 637 137 128 3 713 3 669

CENTRAL AMERICA 10 170 10 433 3 609 3 682 725 809 13 054 13 305Cuba 387 398 419 423 - - 806 821Mexico 7 002 7 217 2 231 2 288 473 548 8 760 8 957

SOUTH AMERICA 44 213 45 354 1 287 1 398 8 897 9 844 36 603 36 908Argentina 5 878 6 141 85 79 748 1 035 5 215 5 184Brazil 27 692 28 610 58 46 6 942 7 567 20 809 21 089Chile 1 515 1 559 683 764 376 449 1 822 1 875Colombia 2 799 2 722 230 270 28 24 3 000 2 967Uruguay 663 637 79 92 438 434 304 295

NORTH AMERICA 51 885 53 185 2 930 2 855 9 823 10 219 44 982 45 792Canada 4 930 5 083 739 707 1 926 2 007 3 733 3 794United States of America 46 954 48 101 2 178 2 134 7 896 8 212 41 235 41 984

EUROPE 64 890 65 548 2 991 3 067 6 258 6 928 61 636 61 680Belarus 1 234 1 211 58 64 426 414 866 861European Union 48 881 49 296 1 439 1 496 5 017 5 614 45 303 45 178Russian Federation 10 677 10 865 806 801 321 345 11 174 11 314Ukraine 2 374 2 439 172 175 384 455 2 163 2 159

OCEANIA 6 739 6 736 489 534 3 138 3 167 4 090 4 103Australia 4 766 4 759 247 286 2 101 2 122 2 913 2 923New Zealand 1 403 1 406 82 84 1 033 1 041 451 450

WORLD 338 579 335 214 32 507 34 738 33 790 36 042 337 263 333 877LIFDC 25 828 25 308 3 006 2 945 1 700 1 751 27 134 26 501LDC 13 148 13 124 1 482 1 491 39 39 14 591 14 577

Notes:

Meat aggregates have been standardized to comply with FAO statistical methods for calculating meat categories.

Total meat includes "other meat".

APPENDIX TABLE 14: TOTAL MEAT STATISTICS

Production Imports Exports Utilization

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APPENDIX TABLE 15: BOVINE MEAT STATISTICS (thousand tonnes - carcass weight equivalent)

2018 2019 2018 2019 2018 2019 2018 2019estim. f'cast estim. f'cast estim. f'cast estim. f'cast

ASIA 18 330 18 875 5 976 6 584 1 798 1 866 22 528 23 591China 6 456 6 866 2 017 2 608 63 59 8 430 9 415India 2 534 2 549 - - 1 445 1 510 1 089 1 039Indonesia 568 570 208 262 - 1 775 831Iran, Islamic Republic of 506 527 159 152 3 3 662 676Japan 475 475 842 856 5 6 1 300 1 321Korea, Republic of 279 289 524 578 4 4 792 865Malaysia 51 52 201 204 9 9 243 247Pakistan 1 898 1 919 1 1 48 52 1 851 1 868Philippines 309 307 175 184 3 5 481 487

AFRICA 6 897 6 870 606 621 91 75 7 412 7 416Algeria 150 150 61 60 - - 211 210Angola 102 103 114 110 - - 216 213Egypt 827 846 269 286 1 1 1 096 1 130South Africa 996 950 21 20 53 46 964 924

CENTRAL AMERICA 2 776 2 832 415 417 475 526 2 717 2 722Mexico 1 983 2 024 225 222 274 318 1 934 1 928

SOUTH AMERICA 16 040 16 355 422 460 3 310 3 716 13 151 13 099Argentina 3 050 3 160 18 20 524 749 2 544 2 431Brazil 9 900 10 307 45 34 1 989 2 194 7 955 8 147Chile 201 208 296 342 12 23 485 527Colombia 768 622 6 8 24 22 751 608Uruguay 596 571 22 32 415 411 202 192

NORTH AMERICA 13 519 13 621 1 569 1 556 1 957 2 012 13 119 13 167Canada 1 265 1 330 259 232 467 531 1 049 1 038United States of America 12 254 12 291 1 306 1 321 1 490 1 481 12 068 12 126

EUROPE 10 734 10 647 955 901 728 746 10 961 10 801European Union 8 006 7 934 336 323 384 416 7 958 7 841Russian Federation 1 664 1 686 462 410 46 48 2 080 2 048Ukraine 363 334 3 3 50 48 316 289

OCEANIA 2 978 3 001 52 53 2 092 2 133 938 921Australia 2 306 2 315 14 14 1 514 1 541 805 788New Zealand 658 672 12 13 575 589 96 96

WORLD 71 273 72 199 9 994 10 591 10 450 11 074 70 827 71 717LIFDC 8 616 8 639 904 798 1 604 1 668 7 916 7 769LDC 4 635 4 636 170 165 16 14 4 789 4 787

Note: Meat aggregates have been standardized to comply with FAO statistical methods for calculating meat categories.

APPENDIX TABLE 15: BOVINE MEAT STATISTICS

Production Imports Exports Utilization

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APPENDIX TABLE 16: OVINE MEAT STATISTICS (thousand tonnes - carcass weight equivalent)

2018 2019 2018 2019 2018 2019 2018 2019estim. f'cast estim. f'cast estim. f'cast estim. f'cast

ASIA 9 159 9 279 685 698 43 36 9 801 9 941Bangladesh 230 232 - - - - 230 232China 4 714 4 826 348 366 1 1 5 061 5 191India 732 730 - - 19 17 713 713Iran, Islamic Republic of 355 352 38 45 - - 393 397Pakistan 473 475 - - 3 4 470 471Saudi Arabia 121 123 35 26 3 1 154 148Turkey 400 401 1 1 - - 401 402

AFRICA 3 059 3 068 25 23 29 29 3 055 3 062Algeria 292 295 - - - - 292 295Nigeria 395 395 - - - - 395 395South Africa 165 165 7 6 1 - 172 171Sudan 361 359 - - 2 2 359 357

CENTRAL AMERICA 128 129 18 19 - 1 145 147Mexico 102 103 8 9 - 1 109 111

SOUTH AMERICA 298 301 8 6 20 20 286 288Brazil 117 119 8 6 - - 125 125

NORTH AMERICA 92 91 146 148 4 4 235 235United States of America 76 75 125 123 4 4 197 194

EUROPE 1 302 1 317 152 127 46 50 1 408 1 394European Union 950 960 142 117 26 28 1 066 1 048Russian Federation 227 232 3 3 12 14 218 221

OCEANIA 1 212 1 183 26 27 901 892 336 318Australia 760 738 1 2 493 488 268 252New Zealand 451 444 3 2 409 404 45 42

WORLD 15 250 15 368 1 059 1 047 1 043 1 031 15 266 15 384LIFDC 3 604 3 608 8 8 44 43 3 568 3 572LDC 2 236 2 243 6 6 18 16 2 224 2 233

APPENDIX TABLE 16: OVINE MEAT STATISTICS

Production Imports Exports Utilization

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APPENDIX TABLE 17: PIG MEAT STATISTICS (thousand tonnes - carcass weight equivalent)

2018 2019 2018 2019 2018 2019 2018 2019estim. f'cast estim. f'cast estim. f'cast estim. f'cast

ASIA 66 579 55 154 4 745 5 615 197 161 71 061 60 578China 54 978 44 127 1 924 2 819 105 75 56 797 46 871India 300 295 1 1 1 - 300 296Indonesia 345 347 4 2 - - 349 349Japan 1 294 1 306 1 487 1 516 4 3 2 790 2 809Korea, Republic of 1 329 1 364 761 709 2 2 2 008 2 051Malaysia 195 197 33 29 5 4 223 221Philippines 1 883 1 963 163 149 2 2 2 044 2 110Thailand 902 904 1 1 25 28 878 876Viet Nam 3 830 3 160 79 97 25 15 3 884 3 242

AFRICA 1 522 1 536 285 274 28 30 1 779 1 779Madagascar 66 65 - - - - 66 65Nigeria 280 279 1 1 - - 281 280South Africa 251 263 45 38 24 27 272 274Uganda 126 125 1 - - - 127 126

CENTRAL AMERICA 2 092 2 172 1 289 1 332 207 239 3 174 3 265Cuba 249 257 22 23 - - 271 280Mexico 1 504 1 571 1 006 1 048 186 218 2 324 2 401

SOUTH AMERICA 6 115 6 408 492 553 1 010 1 235 5 597 5 727Argentina 622 660 52 49 8 13 666 697Brazil 3 722 3 927 2 2 804 989 2 921 2 940Chile 526 536 235 269 190 227 571 578Colombia 386 421 128 153 2 - 512 574

NORTH AMERICA 14 086 14 709 849 798 3 828 4 140 11 111 11 357Canada 2 138 2 187 263 260 1 284 1 304 1 123 1 147United States of America 11 948 12 522 582 534 2 544 2 836 9 983 10 206

EUROPE 29 772 29 943 365 431 3 065 3 560 27 072 26 814Belarus 400 372 24 33 46 39 378 366European Union 24 112 24 209 16 17 2 916 3 401 21 212 20 825Russian Federation 3 763 3 870 112 166 65 82 3 811 3 954Serbia 302 311 52 49 21 21 333 339Ukraine 701 690 36 38 3 2 734 726

OCEANIA 562 537 307 347 44 39 825 845Australia 413 390 217 257 42 37 588 609Papua New Guinea 81 81 8 8 - - 89 89

WORLD 120 727 110 457 8 333 9 350 8 379 9 403 120 619 110 364LIFDC 5 177 4 499 227 250 29 18 5 376 4 732LDC 2 089 2 061 173 170 - - 2 262 2 230

APPENDIX TABLE 17: PIGMEAT STATISTICS

Production Imports Exports Utilization

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APPENDIX TABLE 18: POULTRY MEAT STATISTICS (thousand tonnes - carcass weight equivalent)

2018 2019 2018 2019 2018 2019 2018 2019estim. f'cast estim. f'cast estim. f'cast estim. f'cast

ASIA 44 741 48 754 6 696 7 173 2 464 2 584 48 985 53 378China 19 020 22 306 1 130 1 513 454 448 19 696 23 371India 3 707 3 744 - - 7 7 3 700 3 737Indonesia 2 290 2 380 - - 2 2 2 288 2 378Iran, Islamic Republic of 2 196 2 233 - - 52 48 2 144 2 186Japan 2 246 2 293 1 325 1 337 10 10 3 571 3 627Korea, Republic of 900 927 186 204 37 44 1 044 1 077Kuwait 58 59 150 158 8 9 200 208Malaysia 1 757 1 778 72 73 52 53 1 777 1 798Saudi Arabia 729 749 652 650 37 44 1 343 1 355Singapore 96 95 172 184 15 17 254 262Thailand 1 777 1 850 2 2 1 135 1 274 652 616Turkey 2 229 2 305 6 3 502 511 1 734 1 797Yemen 147 126 91 99 - - 238 225

AFRICA 5 927 5 955 2 066 2 074 92 99 7 902 7 930Angola 40 41 329 301 - - 369 342South Africa 1 755 1 739 567 572 55 53 2 267 2 258

CENTRAL AMERICA 5 075 5 202 1 784 1 812 40 41 6 820 6 973Cuba 34 36 286 293 - - 320 329Mexico 3 330 3 437 990 1 006 10 9 4 311 4 433

SOUTH AMERICA 21 575 22 107 366 378 4 423 4 705 17 518 17 780Argentina 2 079 2 193 14 10 194 252 1 899 1 951Brazil 13 931 14 235 3 4 4 050 4 248 9 885 9 991Chile 766 793 152 153 167 193 752 753

NORTH AMERICA 23 883 24 459 353 340 4 017 4 044 20 215 20 734Canada 1 486 1 525 194 190 164 159 1 509 1 556United States of America 22 396 22 934 154 145 3 853 3 885 18 701 19 173

EUROPE 21 902 22 461 1 286 1 331 2 375 2 525 20 825 21 259European Union 15 248 15 629 736 779 1 652 1 727 14 331 14 682Russian Federation 4 448 4 502 215 212 197 199 4 479 4 508Ukraine 1 276 1 381 134 133 331 404 1 079 1 110

OCEANIA 1 515 1 543 102 104 81 84 1 536 1 564Australia 1 260 1 289 15 14 44 49 1 231 1 254New Zealand 220 219 1 1 37 34 184 186

WORLD 124 618 130 480 12 652 13 212 13 491 14 081 123 800 129 618LIFDC 6 770 6 900 1 858 1 880 10 10 8 618 8 770LDC 3 256 3 252 1 129 1 146 2 6 4 383 4 392

Note: Meat aggregates have been standardized to comply with FAO statistical methods for calculating meat categories.

APPENDIX TABLE 18: POULTRY MEAT STATISTICS

Production Imports Exports Utilization

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APPENDIX TABLE 19: MILK AND MILK PRODUCTS STATISTICS (thousand tonnes - milk equivalent)

2015-2017

average2018 2019 2015-2017

average2018 2019 2015-2017

average2018 2019

estim. f'cast estim. f'cast estim. f'cast

ASIA 320 334 344 988 355 025 41 185 45 012 46 137 6 553 7 649 8 040China 32 479 32 316 33 060 12 200 14 602 14 979 45 53 56India 1 165 766 184 028 191 757 124 71 56 258 615 838Indonesia 1 507 1 535 1 538 2 708 2 972 3 227 53 39 41Iran, Islamic Republic of 6 889 7 610 7 582 394 289 317 665 634 560Japan 7 351 7 293 7 337 2 030 2 215 2 396 8 10 11Korea, Republic.of 2 108 2 034 2 020 1 117 1 233 1 302 35 36 39Malaysia 45 46 46 2 216 2 397 2 439 684 628 634Pakistan 42 944 45 623 46 992 575 498 462 37 32 34Philippines 20 20 20 2 234 2 582 2 949 137 86 92Saudi Arabia 2 423 2 472 2 491 2 976 2 664 2 560 1 412 1 663 1 662Singapore - - - 1 586 1 600 1 581 552 407 459Thailand 841 405 394 1 541 1 596 1 732 246 282 294Turkey 19 281 22 121 21 789 161 109 106 742 812 1 018

AFRICA 47 684 47 739 47 906 10 282 10 727 10 140 1 254 1 209 1 185Algeria 3 333 3 280 3 366 3 101 3 837 3 272 1 - -Egypt 4 969 4 624 4 654 1 447 1 288 1 285 525 556 539Kenya 4 882 5 122 5 226 116 199 220 5 2 3South Africa 3 558 3 796 3 814 294 339 327 364 340 339Sudan 4 444 4 470 4 460 295 290 277 - - -Tunisia 1 410 1 348 1 358 76 113 117 51 59 60

CENTRAL AMERICA 17 490 17 931 18 159 5 703 6 313 6 422 1 011 1 653 831Costa Rica 1 128 1 152 1 158 62 67 70 144 128 129Mexico 11 822 12 234 12 454 3 661 4 206 4 301 497 1 182 361

SOUTH AMERICA 63 387 64 343 64 265 3 561 3 626 2 827 3 889 4 139 4 112Argentina 10 817 10 527 10 284 24 20 20 1 725 1 979 1 824Brazil 34 677 35 433 36 130 1 242 1 025 1 078 243 68 75Colombia 6 793 7 171 6 640 320 318 423 28 33 20Uruguay 2 077 2 219 2 171 29 28 31 1 368 1 556 1 649

NORTH AMERICA 105 419 108 631 108 867 2 695 2 574 2 809 10 786 12 897 11 619Canada 9 176 9 940 9 890 644 625 696 751 1 101 937United States of America 96 241 98 690 98 975 2 036 1 935 2 100 10 034 11 794 10 681

EUROPE 222 334 225 837 226 819 6 707 5 753 6 314 25 660 26 250 27 071Belarus 7 170 7 344 7 417 135 53 52 3 850 3 745 3 886European Union 163 500 166 600 167 300 1 305 1 052 1 093 19 376 20 377 21 159Russian Federation 30 924 31 621 32 064 4 264 3 436 3 884 292 252 225Ukraine 10 428 10 099 9 927 53 98 125 723 776 701

OCEANIA 31 480 31 063 30 990 1 401 1 668 1 616 22 392 21 847 23 371Australia 2 9 805 9 622 9 076 944 1 131 1 139 3 243 3 109 2 924New Zealand 3 21 606 21 372 21 845 277 339 280 19 144 18 733 20 443

WORLD 808 129 840 533 852 030 71 535 75 672 76 264 71 545 75 643 76 231LIFDC 218 173 237 665 245 770 5 792 6 263 6 356 946 1 212 1 420LDC 33 827 33 139 33 076 4 086 4 284 4 300 202 187 183

1 For production, the annual dairy cycle starting in April is applied.2 For production, the annual dairy cycle starting in July is applied.3 For production, the annual dairy cycle starting in June is applied.

Note: Trade values that refer to milk equivalents were derived by applying the following weights: butter (6.60), cheese (4.40), skim/whole milk powder (7.60), skim condensed/evaporated milk (1.90), whole condensed/evaporated milk (2.10), yoghurt (1.0), cream (3.60), casein (7.40), skim milk (0.70), liquid milk (1.0), whey dry (7.6). The conversion factors cited refer to the solids content method. Refer to IDF Bulletin No. 390 (March 2004).

APPENDIX TABLE 19: MILK AND MILK PRODUCTS STATISTICS

Production Imports Exports

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APPENDIX TABLE 20: FISH AND FISHERY PRODUCTS STATISTICS1

2016 2017 2016 2017 2017 2018 2019 2017 2018 2019

estim. f'cast estim. f'cast

ASIA2 48.8 49.2 67.9 71.3 59.2 61.1 59.4 48.6 54.6 57.0China 16.7 16.3 46.1 47.1 23.1 24.2 22.7 15.9 19.9 22.2 of which: Hong Kong SAR 0.1 0.1 - - 0.8 0.7 0.6 3.6 3.8 3.5 Taiwan Prov. 0.8 0.7 0.3 0.3 1.9 2.0 1.8 1.4 1.6 1.6India 5.1 5.4 5.7 6.2 7.2 6.9 6.6 0.1 0.1 0.1Indonesia 6.5 6.7 4.9 6.2 4.2 4.5 4.4 0.4 0.4 0.4Japan 3.2 3.2 0.7 0.6 2.0 2.0 1.8 15.0 15.3 15.5Korea, Republic of 1.4 1.4 0.5 0.5 1.7 1.7 1.8 5.1 5.9 5.7Philippines 2.0 1.9 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.5Thailand 1.5 1.5 0.9 0.9 6.0 6.0 5.7 3.5 3.9 3.7Viet Nam 3.1 3.3 3.6 3.8 8.5 9.0 9.5 1.7 1.9 2.0

AFRICA 9.3 9.7 2.0 2.1 7.2 7.3 7.2 5.0 5.4 5.5Egypt 0.3 0.4 1.4 1.5 - - 0.1 0.6 0.8 0.9Morocco 1.4 1.4 - - 2.2 2.3 2.3 0.2 0.2 0.2Namibia 0.5 0.5 - - 0.7 0.7 0.6 - 0.1 -Nigeria 0.7 0.9 0.3 0.3 - 0.1 0.1 0.8 0.8 0.8Senegal 0.5 0.5 - - 0.4 0.5 0.6 - 0.1 0.1South Africa 0.6 0.5 - - 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.5

CENTRAL AMERICA 2.1 2.3 0.4 0.4 2.8 3.0 2.7 2.0 1.9 1.8Mexico 1.5 1.6 0.2 0.2 1.3 1.5 1.4 0.9 0.9 0.9Panama 0.1 0.1 - - 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1

SOUTH AMERICA 8.1 8.9 2.3 2.5 16.5 18.1 18.4 2.9 3.0 2.9Argentina 0.8 0.8 - - 2.0 2.1 1.9 0.2 0.2 0.1Brazil 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.3 1.4 1.4 1.3Chile 1.5 1.9 1.0 1.2 6.0 6.8 6.7 0.4 0.4 0.4Ecuador 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 4.6 4.9 5.4 0.1 0.1 0.2Peru 3.8 4.2 0.1 0.1 2.8 3.3 3.2 0.3 0.3 0.3

NORTH AMERICA 6.0 6.2 0.6 0.6 12.5 12.1 11.8 24.6 25.6 25.5Canada 0.9 0.8 0.2 0.2 5.4 5.4 5.5 2.9 3.0 3.1United States of America 4.9 5.0 0.4 0.4 6.1 6.0 5.5 21.6 22.6 22.4

EUROPE 13.7 14.8 2.9 3.0 55.0 57.9 57.6 61.2 65.3 62.3European Union2 5.2 5.6 1.3 1.4 35.5 37.2 36.2 55.8 59.3 56.5 of which extra-EU - - - - 6.2 6.6 6.9 29.0 31.0 30.7Iceland 1.1 1.2 - - 2.0 2.4 2.3 0.1 0.1 0.1Norway 2.0 2.4 1.3 1.3 11.3 12.0 11.9 1.2 1.3 1.3Russian Federation 4.8 4.9 0.2 0.2 4.5 4.5 5.4 2.0 2.2 2.0

OCEANIA 1.4 1.4 0.2 0.2 3.3 3.3 3.4 2.0 2.0 1.9Australia 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.6 1.6 1.5New Zealand 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.1 1.2 1.2 1.4 0.2 0.2 0.2

WORLD3 89.4 92.5 76.4 80.1 156.5 162.9 160.5 146.3 157.9 157.0 Excl. intra-EU - - - - 127.2 132.3 131.2 119.6 129.6 131.3LIFDC 15.0 16.0 11.9 12.8 19.1 19.4 19.7 3.8 4.2 4.3LDC 9.2 9.7 3.7 4.0 3.6 3.9 4.1 1.2 1.2 1.2

1 Production and trade data exclude whales, seals, other aquatic mammals and aquatic plants. Trade data include fishmeal and fish oil.2 EU 28. Including intra-trade. Cyprus is included in Asia as well as in the European Union.3 For capture fisheries production, the aggregate includes 5 229 tonnes in 2016 from non-identified countries; these data are not included in any other aggregates. Totals may not match due to rounding.

Million tonnes (live weight equivalent) USD billion USD billion

APPENDIX TABLE 20: FISH AND FISHERY PRODUCTS STATISTICS 1

Exports ImportsCapture fisheries

productionAquaculture fisheries

production

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APPENDIX TABLE 21: SELECTED INTERNATIONAL PRICES FOR WHEAT AND COARSE GRAINS

APPENDIX TABLE 22: TOTAL WHEAT AND MAIZE FUTURES PRICES

Wheat Maize Barley Sorghum

Period US No. 2 Hard

Red Winter

Ord. Prot. 1

US Soft Red

Winter No. 2 2

Argentina

Trigo Pan 3

US No. 2

Yellow 2

Argentina 3 France feed

Rouen

Australia feed

Southern

States

US No. 2

Yellow 2

................................................................................. (USD/tonne) .................................................................................

Annual (July/June)

2008/09 270 201 234 188 180 178 179 170

2009/10 209 185 224 160 168 146 154 165

2010/11 316 289 311 254 260 266 248 248

2011/12 300 259 264 281 269 270 249 264

2012/13 348 310 336 311 277 297 298 281

2013/14 318 265 335 216 219 243 241 218

2014/15 266 221 246 173 177 205 243 210

2015/16 211 194 208 166 170 174 185 174

2016/17 197 170 190 156 172 159 162 151

2017/18 230 188 203 159 165 193 222 174

2018/19 232 210 233 166 166 219 265 163

2018 - October 240 210 233 160 162 239 305 159

2018 - November 232 210 220 160 161 235 269 157

2018 - December 241 218 228 167 171 238 270 164

2019 - January 238 219 234 166 173 234 266 162

2019 - February 235 217 244 170 170 208 251 170

2019 - March 224 201 231 167 163 199 245 170

2019 - April 213 195 220 161 155 197 250 164

2019 - May 212 203 218 172 166 188 237 164

2019 - June 227 222 243 196 183 189 249 164

2019 - July 216 202 244 188 177 180 244 158

2019 - August 203 197 238 162 151 175 223 147

2019 - September 200 200 228 157 145 172 223 149

2019 - October 212 213 229 168 157 187 221 164

December March May July

Dec. 2019 Dec. 2018 Mar. 2020 Mar. 2019 May 2020 May 2019 July 2020 July 2019

................................................................................. (USD/tonne) .................................................................................

Wheat

Sept 26 178 190 180 197 182 201 183 201

Oct 3 180 189 182 196 191 201 186 203

Oct 10 181 188 184 195 186 200 187 202

Oct 17 193 190 195 198 196 202 197 204

Oct 24 190 184 192 191 193 196 195 198

Oct 31 187 184 189 190 191 194 192 196

Maize

Sept 26 147 143 151 148 154 151 156 153

Oct 3 153 144 158 148 160 151 161 153

Oct 10 150 143 154 148 156 150 158 153

Oct 17 155 147 160 152 162 155 164 157

Oct 24 152 145 157 150 159 153 162 155

Oct 31 154 143 157 148 159 151 161 153

Source: Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT)

1 Delivered United States f.o.b Gulf; 2 Delivered United States Gulf; 3 Up River f.o.b. Sources: International Grain Council and USDA.

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APPENDIX TABLE 23: SELECTED INTERNATIONAL PRICES FOR RICE AND PRICE INDICES

International prices FAO indices

Indica

Period Thai 100% B1

Thai broken 2

US long grain 3

Pakisan Basmati4

Total Higher quality

Lower quality

Japonica Aromatic

Annual (Jan/Dec) ..........................(USD per tonne) .......................... ............................. (2002-2004=100) .............................

2012 588 540 567 1137 231 225 241 235 222

2013 534 483 628 1372 233 219 226 230 268

2014 435 322 571 1324 235 207 201 266 255

2015 395 327 490 849 211 184 184 263 176

2016 407 348 438 795 194 180 187 228 153

2017 415 334 456 1131 206 183 195 232 204

2018 445 365 531 1023 224 201 208 256 216

Monthly

2018 – October 432 358 510 961 216 197 200 247 204

2018 – November 423 356 509 938 215 194 199 244 207

2018 – December 425 365 511 921 216 192 197 249 209

2019 – January 432 377 519 919 223 192 196 269 211

2019 – February 427 379 497 901 221 189 192 266 211

2019 – March 421 374 495 915 222 189 194 267 211

2019 – April 429 374 486 983 222 191 195 265 217

2019 – May 425 374 481 1004 222 190 195 264 219

2019 – June 436 382 479 1038 224 190 192 267 223

2019 – July 431 387 499 1031 224 190 194 267 224

2019 – August 444 389 508 1039 228 193 195 270 232

2019 – September 444 399 508 1045 228 192 195 271 232

2019 – October 440 398 509 989 225 192 197 270 219

1 White rice - 100% second grade - f.o.b. Bangkok - indicative traded prices.2 A1 super - f.o.b. Bangkok - indicative traded prices.3 US No.2 - 4% brokens f.o.b.4 Up to May 2011: Basmati ordinary - f.o.b. Karachi; from June 2011 onwards: Super Kernel White Basmati Rice 2%.

Note: The FAO Rice Price Index is based on 16 rice export quotations. ‘Quality’ is defined by the percentage of broken kernels - with higher (lower) quality referring to rice with less (equal to or more) than 20 percent brokens. The sub-index for Aromatic Rice follows movements in prices of Basmati and Fragrant rice.Sources: FAO for indices. Rice prices: Livericeindex.com - Thai Department of Foreign Trade (DFT) and other public sources.

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APPENDIX TABLE 24: SELECTED INTERNATIONAL PRICES FOR OILCROP PRODUCTS AND PRICE INDICES

International prices 1 FAO indices 8

Period Soybeans 2 Soybean oil 3 Palm oil 4 Soybean cake 5 Rapeseed

meal 6

Oilseeds Vegetable oils Oilcakes/meals

.............................................. (USD per tonne) .............................................. ................... (2002-2004=100) ................

Annual (Oct/Sept)

2004/05 275 545 419 212 130 104 103 101

2005/06 259 572 451 202 130 100 107 96

2006/07 335 772 684 264 184 129 150 128

2008/09 437 849 682 409 206 157 146 179

2009/10 429 924 806 388 220 162 177 183

2010/11 549 1308 1147 418 279 214 259 200

2011/12 562 1235 1051 461 295 214 232 219

2012/13 563 1099 835 539 345 213 193 255

2013/14 521 949 867 534 324 194 189 253

2014/15 407 777 658 406 270 155 153 194

2015/16 396 773 655 351 232 151 155 168

2016/17 404 806 729 336 225 154 160 171

2017/18 402 820 648 381 258 152 154 182

2018/19 370 744 523 328 247 142 159 130

Monthly

2018 - January 404 865 679 361 239 153 163 171

2018 - February 416 848 660 400 265 157 158 190

2018 - March 432 830 684 427 294 162 157 203

2018 - April 441 824 663 447 304 164 155 213

2018 - May 432 787 659 443 282 161 151 211

2018 - June 389 783 631 391 264 148 146 187

2018 - July 378 774 591 382 267 145 142 184

2018 - August 379 763 561 365 282 146 138 178

2018 - September 357 755 545 347 277 139 135 169

2018 - October 369 759 529 347 272 142 133 169

2018 - November 372 735 482 340 276 143 125 166

2018 - December 382 720 494 344 273 145 126 166

2019 - January 381 746 534 343 273 146 131 165

2019 - February 380 766 558 330 263 145 134 156

2019 - March 371 730 527 320 248 142 128 155

2019 - April 365 733 534 318 244 140 129 153

2019 - May 347 738 510 320 234 135 127 154

2019 - June 369 725 505 337 236 141 125 163

2019 - July 374 738 498 322 225 143 126 156

2019 - August 363 775 540 315 215 139 134 152

2019 - September 366 765 563 315 201 140 136 151

2019 - October 7 386 761 553 319 215 147 136 153

1 Spot prices for nearest forward shipment 2 Soybeans: US - No.2 yellow - c.i.f. Rotterdam3 Soybean oil: Dutch - fob ex-mill4 Palm oil: Crude - c.i.f. Northwest Europe5 Soybean cake: Pellets - 44/45 percent - Argentina - c.i.f. Rotterdam6 Rapeseed meal: 34 percent - Hamburg - f.o.b. ex-mill7 The international prices shown represent averages for the first three weeks of the month.8 The FAO indices are based on the international prices of five selected seeds - ten selected oils and five selected cakes and meals. The indices are calculated using the

Laspeyres formula; the weights used are the export values of each commodity for the 2002-2004 period.

Sources: FAO and Oil World.

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APPENDIX TABLE 25: SELECTED INTERNATIONAL PRICES FOR SUGAR AND SUGAR PRICE INDEX

I.S.A. daily price average1 FAO Sugar Price Index (2002/04 = 100)

Raw sugar

Annual (Jan/Dec) (US Cents/lb) (2002/04=100)

2009 18.1 257.3

2010 21.3 302.0

2011 26.0 368.9

2012 21.5 305.7

2013 17.7 251.0

2014 17.0 241.2

2015 13.4 190.7

2016 18.0 256.0

2017 16.0 227.3

2018 12.5 177.5

Monthly

2017 - October 14.3 203.5

2017 - November 15.0 212.7

2017 - December 14.4 204.1

2018 - January 14.1 199.9

2018 - February 13.6 192.4

2018 - March 13.1 185.5

2018 - April 12.0 176.1

2018 - May 12.4 175.3

2018 - June 12.5 177.4

2018 - July 11.7 166.3

2018 - August 11.1 157.3

2018 - September 11.4 161.4

2018 - October 12.5 175.4

2018 - November 12.9 183.1

2018 - December 12.7 179.6

2019 - January 12.8 181.9

2019 - February 13.0 184.2

2019 - March 12.7 180.4

2019 - April 12.8 181.7

2019 - May 12.4 176.0

2019 - June 12.9 183.3

2019 - July 12.8 182.1

2019 - August 12.3 174.8

2019 - September 11.9 168.0

2019 - October 12.6

1 International Sugar Agreement (ISA) prices: simple average of the closing quotes for the first three future positions of the New York Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) Sugar Contract No. 11.

Source: International Sugar Organization (ISO). FAO for the sugar index.

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APPENDIX TABLE 26: SELECTED INTERNATIONAL PRICES FOR MILK PRODUCTS AND DAIRY PRICE INDEX

International prices FAO dairy price index

Period Butter 1 Skim milk powder 2 Whole milk powder 3 Cheddar cheese 4

Annual (Jan/Dec) .................................................. (USD per tonne) .................................................. ... (2002-2004=100) ...

2008 3 701 3 251 3 891 4 633 223

2009 2 736 2 332 2 556 2 957 150

2010 4 270 3 081 3 514 4 010 207

2011 4 876 3 556 4 018 4 310 230

2012 3 547 3 119 3 358 3 821 194

2013 4 484 4 293 4 745 4 402 243

2014 4 010 3 647 3 868 4 456 224

2015 3 212 2 113 2 509 3 340 160

2016 3 350 1 983 2 457 3 094 154

2017 5 573 2 025 3 179 3 848 202

2018 5 325 1 911 3 087 3 648 193

Monthly

2018 – October 4 702 1 935 2 910 3 513 182

2018 – November 4 507 1 960 2 834 3 375 176

2018 – December 4 265 1 967 2 814 3 238 170

2019 – January 4 527 2 291 2 922 3 475 182

2019 – February 4 660 2 477 3 134 3 675 192

2019 – March 4 871 2 431 3 271 4 019 204

2019 – April 5 246 2 404 3 326 4 288 215

2019 – May 5 261 2 450 3 282 4 731 226

2019 – June 4 683 2 367 3 188 3 944 199

2019 – July 4 300 2 457 3 132 3 856 194

2019 – August 4 104 2 497 3 166 3 938 195

2019 – September 4 074 2 557 3 189 3 875 193

2019 – October 4 074 2 681 3 226 3 763 192

1 Butter - 82% butterfat - f.o.b. Oceania and EU; average indicative traded prices.2 Skim Milk Powder - 1.25% butterfat - f.o.b. Oceania and EU - averaged indicative traded prices.3 Whole Milk Powder - 26% butterfat - f.o.b. Oceania and EU - average indicative traded prices.4 Cheddar Cheese - 39% max. moisture - f.o.b. Oceania - indicative traded prices.

Note: The FAO Dairy Price Index is derived from a trade-weighted average of a selection of representative internationally-traded dairy products.Sources: FAO for indices. Product prices: Mid-point of price ranges reported by Dairy Market News (USDA).

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APPENDIX TABLE 27: SELECTED INTERNATIONAL MEAT PRICES

Bovine meat prices:Australia: Cow 90CL export prices to the USA (FAS)United States of America: Frozen beef - export unit valueBrazil: Frozen beef - export unit value

Ovine meat prices:New Zealand: Lamb 17.5kg cwt - export price

Pig meat prices:United States of America: Frozen pigmeat - export unit valueBrazil: Frozen pigmeat - export unit valueGermany: Monthly market price for pig carcass grade E

Poultry meat prices:United States of America: Broiler cuts - export unit valueBrazil: Export unit value for chicken (f.o.b.)

Prices for the two most recent months may be estimates and subject to revision.

Bovine meat pricesOvine meat

pricePig meat prices Poultry meat prices

Period Australia United

States of

America

Brazil New Zealand United

States of

America

Brazil Germany United

States of

America

Brazil

Annual (Jan/Dec) ......................................................................................... (USD per tonne) .........................................................................................

2008 3 024 4 325 3 785 2 975 2 270 3 000 2 364 997 1 896

2009 2 562 3 897 3 118 3 495 2 202 2 223 2 035 989 1 552

2010 3 272 4 378 3 919 3 662 2 454 2 747 1 913 1 032 1 781

2011 3 944 4 516 4 816 5 370 2 648 3 023 2 169 1 147 2 083

2012 4 176 4 913 4 492 4 754 2 676 2 784 2 233 1 228 1 931

2013 4 009 5 535 4 326 4 130 2 717 2 872 2 311 1 229 2 014

2014 5 016 6 678 4 515 4 687 3 183 3 434 2 106 1 206 1 940

2015 4 638 6 201 4 130 3 641 2 576 2 499 1 582 1 003 1 642

2016 4 059 5 569 3 836 3 571 2 424 2 143 1 682 914 1 532

2017 4 378 5 871 4 047 4 486 2 529 2 482 1 871 999 1 653

2018 4 110 6 416 3 931 5 249 2 506 1 965 1 728 971 1 552

Monthly

2018 – October 3 735 6 563 3 796 5 308 2 417 1 796 1 624 904 1 531

2018 – November 3 875 6 589 3 854 5 412 2 462 1 858 1 596 892 1 575

2018 – December 4 096 6 526 3 697 5 272 2 395 1 986 1 596 851 1 600

2019 – January 4 166 6 318 3 686 4 827 2 367 2 010 1 600 850 1 563

2019 – February 4 373 6 482 3 666 4 798 2 328 1 980 1 629 874 1 595

2019 – March 4 470 6 546 3 631 4 675 2 272 2 052 1 701 912 1 599

2019 – April 4 693 6 567 3 669 4 684 2 298 2 160 1 979 974 1 602

2019 – May 4 529 6 443 3 755 4 777 2 435 2 268 2 047 1 016 1 695

2019 – June 4 591 6 427 3 709 4 997 2 591 2 308 2 119 1 059 1 624

2019 – July 4 674 6 299 3 908 5 245 2 659 2 297 2 049 1 085 1 686

2019 – August 4 633 6 263 4 136 5 246 2 613 2 235 2 112 1 089 1 665

2019 – September 4 779 6 244 4 227 5 385 2 620 2 312 2 096 1 095 1 640

2019 – October 4 954 6 231 4 290 5 464 2 642 2 337 2 103 1 098 1 630

Notes:

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APPENDIX TABLE 28: SELECTED INTERNATIONAL MEAT PRICES AND FAO MEAT PRICE INDICES

FAO indices

Period Total meat Bovine meat Ovine meat Pig meat Poultry meat

Annual (Jan/Dec) .............................................................................. (2002-2004=100) .........................................................................

2008 161 158 128 152 184

2009 141 135 151 131 162

2010 158 165 158 138 179

2011 183 191 232 153 206

2012 182 195 205 153 201

2013 184 197 178 157 206

2014 198 231 202 164 200

2015 168 213 157 126 168

2016 156 191 154 123 156

2017 170 204 194 135 169

2018 166 204 227 124 160

Monthly

2018 – October 160 197 229 117 155

2018 – November 163 201 234 117 157

2018 – December 162 202 228 117 156

2019 – January 160 200 208 117 154

2019 – February 163 205 207 117 157

2019 – March 164 207 202 120 160

2019 – April 171 212 202 131 164

2019 – May 174 209 206 136 173

2019 – June 176 209 216 142 171

2019 – July 179 212 226 141 176

2019 – August 180 214 226 141 175

2019 – September 181 217 232 142 174

2019 – October 183 221 236 143 173

Notes: The FAO Meat Price Indices consist of 2 poultry meat product quotations (the average weighted by assumed fixed trade weights) - 3 bovine meat product quotations (average weighted by assumed fixed trade weights) - 3 pig meat product quotations (average weighted by assumed fixed trade weights) - 1 ovine meat product quotation (average weighted by assumed fixed trade weights): the four meat group average prices are weighted by world average export trade shares for 2002/2004.

Prices for the two most recent months may be estimates and subject to revision.

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APPENDIX TABLE 29: FISH PRICE INDICES

Period Total White fish Salmon Shrimp Pelagic

excl. tuna

Tuna

Annual (Jan/Dec) .................................................................. (2002-2004=100) ..................................................................

2008 136 151 151 109 148 162

2009 126 132 159 98 140 147

2010 137 138 187 109 144 146

2011 154 151 195 124 173 175

2012 144 145 146 107 207 195

2013 148 134 157 126 215 190

2014 157 142 159 148 210 175

2015 141 142 131 121 253 149

2016 151 140 178 123 257 164

2017 158 152 183 126 234 183

2018 158 169 185 116 244 172

Monthly

2017 - January 155 143 205 125 241 156

2017 - February 155 151 188 123 235 168

2017 - March 155 148 180 126 255 171

2017 - April 154 147 179 127 239 165

2017 - May 160 150 210 128 230 175

2017 - June 163 149 202 127 269 190

2017 - July 159 153 197 124 223 185

2017 - August 157 153 178 125 211 195

2017 - September 160 157 175 126 218 204

2017 - October 161 158 171 126 207 216

2017 - November 155 158 148 126 233 192

2017 - December 156 158 163 124 243 182

2018 - January 161 169 178 122 246 179

2018 - February 162 167 196 120 267 171

2018 - March 165 170 216 120 253 167

2018 - April 165 169 211 119 266 176

2018 - May 165 168 225 116 249 173

2018 - June 159 165 188 113 276 174

2018 - July 153 165 168 113 256 168

2018 - August 150 167 157 112 219 169

2018 - September 153 168 181 115 218 160

2018 - October 154 165 177 114 216 174

2018 - November 154 175 157 112 227 178

2018 - December 156 178 167 112 236 171

2019 - January 158 182 176 111 222 177

2019 - February 161 193 173 110 225 179

2019 - March 165 197 187 111 243 173

2019 - April 163 186 201 111 239 172

2019 - May 156 180 174 111 223 170

2019 - June 158 176 172 112 289 162

2019 - July 151 170 161 114 226 162

2019 - August 147 160 152 115 216 163

2019 - September 143 156 137 114 231 157

Source of the raw data for the FAO Fish Price Index: EUMOFA, INFOFISH, INFOPESCA, Statistics Norway.Note: The table presents a new version of the FAO Fish Price Index, with slight differences compared to the data included in previous issues. These changes were implemented in order to be more consistent with the methodology and timing requirements of the price indices reported in the Food Outlook.

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APPENDIX TABLE 30: SELECTED INTERNATIONAL COMMODITY PRICES

Currency and unit Effective date Latest quotation One month ago One year ago Average

2013-2017

Sugar (ISA daily price) US cents per lb 31-10-19 12.59 12.75 12.50 15.40

Coffee (ICO daily price) US cents per lb 31-10-19 101.56 99.56 111.21 128.59

Cocoa (ICCO daily price) US cents per lb 31-10-19 108.98 108.55 96.81 121.55

Tea (FAO Tea Composite Price) USD per kg 30-09-19 2.38 2.35 2.54 2.75

Cotton (COTLOOK A index) US cents per lb 30-09-19 71.31 70.78 90.36 80.47

Jute “BTD” (Fob Bangladesh Port)

USD per tonne 31-10-19 760.00 740.00 840.00 723.92

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Futures prices for wheat, maize and soybeans exhibited

sizable, mostly synchronous price swings during the

past five months, as unstable US weather patterns and

trade uncertainties dominated market sentiment. Maize

experienced the greatest price variation, rising by USD 25

per tonne from an 11-month low to a 5-year high in mid-

June, as record rainfall and widespread flooding caused

significant planting delays across the US growing region.

Soybean prices, which had touched an 11-year low in May

in response to massive hog culling throughout Southeast

Asia and China’s retaliatory tariffs on the US oilseed, rose to

a 1-year high. Wheat prices also rose in concert with those

CME futures prices CME futures volumes

Historical volatility (30 days) Implied volatility

50

200

350

500

20192018201720162015

Wheat Maize Soybeans

USD per tonne

0

15

30

45

20192018201720162015

Wheat Maize Soybeans

percent

of maize and soybeans, but to a lesser extent. Values fell

for all three commodities when the US weather normalized

and the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA)

projected crop production, especially for maize, at levels

considerably above trade expectations. Following the price

slump in September, soybean values bounced after reports

of sizable increases in Chinese purchases in October and the

US administration announcement that a trade resolution was

within reach. At the same time, wheat prices advanced as

an aberrant snowstorm swept across the US northern plains,

while maize recovered after hitting a typical seasonal low in

September. Elsewhere, USDA offered guidance that global

Futures markets

0

220

440

660

20192018201720162015

Wheat Maize Soybeans

thousand contracts

0

15

30

45

20192018201720162015

Wheat Maize Soybeans

percent

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92 FOOD OUTLOOKNOVEMBER 2019

supplies were adequate, citing fractional changes to various

regions. The effects of developments in exogenous markets,

such as energy prices and foreign exchange movements,

appeared muted. Excluding a brief price spike, West Texas

Intermediate crude oil traded in a narrow USD 50–60/barrel

range during the last five months and the US dollar remained

steady, but firm. In common with last year’s price action,

weather and trade issues superseded other factors.

FORWARD CURVES

Forward curves for wheat, maize and soybeans exhibited

dramatic moves as buyers amassed both old and new

crop contracts for maize and soybeans during the rain-

drenched spring planting period. The y/y curve (calculating

the difference between December 2019 and December

2020 contracts) for maize attained a substantial inverse

(downward sloping) of USD 18 in June at the height of the

price rise, falling USD 31 by month end and reconfiguring

into a steep contango (upward sloping) of USD 13, before

rebounding somewhat. The y/y soybean spread (November

2019 – November 2020) saw similar tightening and

subsequent relaxation from USD 5 contango to USD 23

contango, but by a much lesser degree than the y/y maize

spread. It too rebounded on increased demand prospects

and a sharp downward revision by USDA of 2020 ending

soybean stocks. Conversely, wheat curves experienced

tightening of front spreads as cash wheat prices were quoted

at substantial premiums over nearby futures prices. Notably,

the July 2019/September 2019 spread inverted by USD 5

during July expiration, as commercial end-users of wheat

(flour millers) maintained long futures hedges into expiration

in order to force futures and cash convergence. This cash

wheat shortage has caused the December 2019/December

2020 wheat spread to trade at a narrow upward slope of

USD 10, compared with USD 24 and USD 29 during the two

previous years.

VOLUMES

Trade volumes slowed for wheat and soybeans y/y, but

set new monthly records for maize during the height of

planting uncertainties in May and June. Volumes for all three

commodities followed seasonal trends, declining from July

onwards, with only maize posting higher levels compared

with the same period in 2018. All three commodities

recorded declines in open interest y/y. Commercial

participants (reported by the Commodity Futures Trading

Commission (CFTC) as number of traders) in soybeans

declined among the three commodities y/y, underscoring the

relative complexity of hedging price risks amid ongoing trade

Forward curves snapshots as of Oct 2017, 2018 and 2019

Soybeans

300

316

332

348

364

380

MayMarJanNovSepAugJulMayMarJanNov

2017

2018

2019

USD per tonne

Maize

130

138

146

154

162

170

MayMarDecSepJulMayMarDec

2018

2019

2017

USD per tonne

Wheat

140

156

172

188

204

220

JulMayMarDecSepJulMayMarDec

2017

2018

2019

USD per tonne

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93FOOD OUTLOOKNOVEMBER 2019

disputes. Options open interest, which grew steadily over

several years as options transactions increasingly transitioned

from open outcry to screen-based trading, raised open

interest totals by 28, 30 and 22 percent for wheat, maize

and soybeans respectively, similar to last year.

VOLATILITY

Volatility levels for wheat, maize and soybeans rose to

their highest level during June since the beginning of the

calendar year, as torrential rains threatened to slow or halt

planting progress in spring-planted crops across the US

growing region. Weather appeared to eclipse any reports of

progress or setbacks in the US-China trade dispute, which

has lingered since April 2018 when China first halted US

soybean purchases in response to US tariffs on Chinese

imports. Historical volatility (based on 30 days) for maize

reached multi-year highs, ranging between the levels of 13

and 32 since the start of the year. For wheat, normally the

most volatile of the three commodities, historical volatility

ranged between 15 and 36, remaining close to seasonal

averages, while for soybeans, it stayed in a subdued range

between 11 and 22 (all based on monthly averages).

Implied volatility (calculated by the level of option premiums

on underlying futures contracts) reached a multi-year

high level for maize of 37 for June, while for wheat and

soybeans it mostly tracked seasonal patterns, ranging

between 14 and 30 and between 12 and 22, respectively

(monthly averages). The closely watched commodity

volatility index, the OVX, which measures crude oil price

volatility, remained in a narrow range mostly between 30

and 40, compared with the upper 20s a year ago.

INVESTMENT FLOWS

Managed money accumulated large net short positions

for wheat, maize and soybeans prior to the start of

spring planting, which triggered a wave of short covering

as prices soared in May and into the first half of June.

Commercials, which held close to even positions at the

start of planting, sold heavily into the rally, particularly

for maize, net selling over 448 000 thousand contracts,

the equivalent of 57 million tonnes in six weeks.

Managed money’s ill-timed positioning yielded negative

rates of return through August, although a September

turnaround lifted year-to-date returns to a barely positive

0.15 percent, according to the Barclay agricultural hedge

fund tracker. Swaps dealers, which offer securitized

products tracking weighted price indices of select

commodities, noticeably retreated from the market y/y

according to the CFTC. Open long and short positions

CME net-length as % of open interests (Jan 2015 − Oct 2019)

Maize

Soybeans

Wheat

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

20192018201720162015

percent

Commercial Managedmoney

Swapdealers

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

20192018201720162015

percent

Commercial Managedmoney

Swapdealers

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

20192018201720162015

percent

Commercial Managedmoney

Swapdealers

140

156

172

188

204

220

JulMayMarDecSepJulMayMarDec

2017

2018

2019

USD per tonne

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94 95FOOD OUTLOOKNOVEMBER 2019

for wheat, maize and soybeans, as detailed in the CFTC’s

Commitment of Traders Report, declined between 25 and

30 percent compared with last year, probably signifying

client withdrawal of funds under management owing to

lacklustre or negative price performance. The Deutsche

Bank Agricultural Index Fund, which tracks ten agricultural

futures markets including wheat, maize and soybeans,

sunk to a new low of USD 14.92 during September,

before rebounding somewhat in October, marking eight

consecutive years of declining agricultural prices.

Ann Berg (International Consultant)

[email protected]

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94 95FOOD OUTLOOKNOVEMBER 2019

Ocean freight rates

OCEAN FREIGHT MARKET (MAY 2019 – OCTOBER 2019)

The dry bulk freight market posted steep gains over the

past six months, mainly linked to a strong showing during

the summer months. Despite background worries about

ongoing trade disputes, vessel earnings climbed to multi-

year highs recently on strong spot demand, with the

Baltic Dry Index (BDI) – a benchmark for costs across dry

bulk segments – approaching a nine-year peak in early-

September. Despite a subsequent retreat amid mounting

worries about a slowing global economy, the Index more

than doubled since late-April and is up by 15% y/y.

Freight costs in the grains and oilseeds market segment

also firmed markedly, although gains were smaller

compared to the broader market. While the IGC Grains and

Oilseeds Freight Index (GOFI), which provides a measure

of nominal voyage rates on main routes, strengthened

by 11%, overall increases were capped by declines in

bunker prices. However, the fuel market witnessed two-

sided swings, with prices spiking following mid-September

attacks on oil facilities in Saudi Arabia.

The market for the largest Capesize vessels, typically

engaged in the transportation of heavy raw materials,

posted the sharpest gains over the period, with the

corresponding Baltic sub-Index increasing nearly five-fold.

Values staged a speedy recovery from early-April lows,

rising to a nine-year peak in early-September on resurgent

iron ore dispatches from Brazil following disruption due

to a mining dam collapse. This was coupled with fresh

International Grains Council (IGC) www.igc.int

Summary of dry bulk freight markets

24 Oct

2019

Changes

6 months y/y

%

Baltic Dry Index (BDI)* 1 785 +110 +15

Sub-indices:

Capesize 2 926 +352 +23

Panamax 1 748 +49 +5

Supramax 1 200 +55 +5

Baltic Handysize Index

(BHSI)** 637 +63 -6

Index Grains and Oilseeds

Freight Index (GOFI)*** 130 +11 -11

BDI and IGC GOFI (24 October 2018 – 24 October 2019)

Baltic Capesize Index (24 October 2018 – 24 October 2019)

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

200

225

OSAJJMAMFJDNO20192018

Rebased, 24 Oct 2018 = 100

Note: IGC Grains and Oilseeds Freight Index, constructed based on nominal

freight rates on major grains/oilseeds routes using trade-weighted approach.

Source: Baltic Exchange, IGC

Source: Baltic Exchange

business out of the Black Sea region and Canada, while

robust ore and coal flows from Australia added to upside.

Reflecting generally strong demand, China’s total imports of

coal, iron ore and soyabeans hit a quarterly record in July-

September. However, a weakening trend in freight rates

prevailed in recent weeks as the market focused on slowing

20

52

84

116

148

180

OSAJJMAMFJDNO

Rebased, 24 Oct 2018 = 100

2018 2019

BDI IGC GOFI

Source: Baltic Exchange, IGC. * 4 January 1985 = 1000. ** 23 May 2006 = 1000. *** 1 January 2013 = 100.

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FOOD OUTLOOKNOVEMBER 2019

global economic growth, with such international bodies as

the WTO and the OECD downgrading outlooks for world

trade and GDP. Nevertheless, ongoing scrubber-fitting

activity ahead of the introduction of IMO 2020 regulations

has been a notable supportive factor lately.

The Panamax segment also witnessed two-sided trends.

After a period of somewhat hesitant trade, average rates

surged in July, driven by firm demand for soyabeans and

maize shipments out of South America. Gains were led by

transatlantic routes, where daily earnings rose to around

USD 29,000 – the highest since October 2010. Against

this backdrop, a nominal voyage rate from Brazil to China

touched USD 51/t in late July, the highest in at least four

years, while the spread between transatlantic and transpacific

timecharter levels also reached a multi-year peak. Although

markets in Argentina and Brazil remained active in the period

since, the Baltic sub-Index partly reversed gains thereafter,

in part linked to losses in the Capesize sector, but remains

up by about one-half compared to late-April. Some recent

support was afforded by news of fresh fixings from the Pacific

Northwest and, more recently, the US Gulf, as China secured

a number of soyabean cargoes ahead of a new round

of trade talks.

Values for smaller Supramax and Handysize carriers

in part tracked movements for Panamax bulkers, as an initial

downturn was followed by sustained advances through

early September. Supramax gains were mainly attributed to

strong demand in the Pacific, with fresh business in the Indian

Ocean, limited vessel availability in the Mediterranean and

strength in the northern Atlantic adding to upside at times.

Handysize gains over the period were partly tied to steady

increases at the US Gulf, where inland logistical difficulties

were coupled with exporters’ interest to load smaller

Dry bulk freight markets (up to 90,000 dwt): Deliveries vs. scrappage

Source:Thomson Reuters Research & Forecasts and IGC estimates

Source: Baltic Exchange

Grains and oilseeds carrying sectors: Panamax and Supramax sub-Indices and Handysize Index

24 October 2018 – 24 October 2019

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

OSAJJMAMFJDNO20192018

Supramax Handysize Panamax

Rebased, 24 Oct 2018 = 100

cargoes in effort to secure fresh business. Firmer demand

for Handysize grains/oilseeds shipments was also noted

in Argentina, where participants reportedly experienced

difficulties completing Panamax cargoes owing to low

water levels on the Parana River and dwindling supplies at

Atlantic ports.

Supply side developmentsWith Panamax vessels likely accounting for the bulk

of newbuilding deliveries, the global fleet of grains and

oilseeds carriers (including vessels below 10,000 dwt)

is expected to expand by 2.5% in 2019, a modest drop

in growth from the prior 12 months. Likewise, mostly

because of a large order-book for Panamax bulkers, the

rate of increase in 2020 is forecast at around 3%, as

larger deliveries are expected to be only partly countered

by increased vessel scrapping. This forecast compares to

projected annual rise in seaborne trade in coal and grains/

oilseeds of about 2%, which points to a potential for

continued overcapacity in the near-term.

It should be pointed out that projections for global trade

and demand for carriers have a significant downside risk,

not least because of persistent economic headwinds and

global trade tensions, while projections for vessel supply

are complicated by uncertainties about the upcoming

implementation of IMO 2020 requirements.

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

20202019201820172016201520142013proj.f’cast

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

m dwt

< Deliveries Fleet growth > < Scrappage

percentage

96 FOOD OUTLOOKNOVEMBER 2019

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FAO price indices1

FAO Global Food Consumption Price Index

The FAO Global Food Consumption Price Index (GFCPI) tracks

changes in the cost of a global food basket. It uses calorie

weights of major food items, derived from the FAO food

balance sheets (http://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/FBS) for

the base period of 2002–2004. Calorie weights for wheat,

rice, coarse grains, sugar, oilseed/crops, vegetable oils, beef,

pig meat, ovine meat, poultry, milk, and butter are multiplied

by their respective commodity price indexes and summed up.

These commodities cover 80 percent of global daily average

calorie consumption. The index is dominated by crop products,

which comprise an 83 percent share of the calories covered.

The corresponding price indexes for world trade are found in

Appendix Tables 21–28.

The GFCPI reached its all-time peak in February 2011 at a

level of 265 (basis 2002–2004=100). By 2015, it had fallen

by 40 percent and since then fluctuated between 160 and

180, a range that is about one-third lower than its historical

peak, suggesting a considerable relief for consumers in terms

of calorie costs in recent years. In October 2019 the index

averaged 175 points, just 3 points above its value a year

earlier. Over the last twelve months, the index has fluctuated

within the range of 171-177 points, as lower prices for

wheat and butter have been offset by increasing prices for

other commodities. Meat prices (particularly pig meat) which

increased the most over the last year have not markedly

affected the index given their low weight in the calorie

basket. The GFCPI peaked in June 2019 before falling to more

subdued levels.

A calorie vs protein basisAs a measure of the changing costs of the calorie basket of

primary food commodities, the current GFCPI is an indicator of

the purchasing power for calories and therefore also a rough

gauge for changes in the access to food, of calorie deficits and

of undernourishment. When based on protein weights, the

index captures the aggregate purchasing power for different

sources of protein. For animal protein sources, these are meats,

milk products and fish, and for crops, cereals are the dominant

source of proteins.

1 All changes referred to in this section, in absolute or percentage terms, are calculated based on unrounded figures.

Two alternative formulations of the GFCPI have been

constructed, one on a calorie, the other on a protein basis. The

exact weights of calorie and protein shares are summarized in

Table 1 and the corresponding price indices in Tables 21–29.

While these weights can differ markedly across commodities,

the dominant role of cereals as a source of both calories and

protein kept two indexes evolving in tandem (figure 2). This

was particularly the case in 2018 and 2019 where the two

series practically overlapped.

Some differences in the two indexes remain both with regard

to their levels and their variability. In general, the calorie-

based index displays a higher monthly variation and more

pronounced overall swings. In terms of levels, the protein-

based measure consistently remained below the calories-based

index. Only in 2019, the protein-based index exceeded the

calorie-based measure for the first time in many years.

Fish has been included as a weight in both indexes, given its

importance as a protein source for human diets. At about 25

kg per capita, current global fish consumption is higher than

that of individual meats, excluding poultry meat. However,

given its low calorie content, it assumes a low share in the

calorie-based index and its inclusion therefore translates into

only a small difference (0.3 points) compared with the existing

Figure 1. The FAO Global Food Consumption and Food Price Indices (Jun 2015 – Oct 2019)

140

149

158

167

176

185

20192018201720162015

2002-2004=100

FAO Global FoodConsumption Price Index

FAO Food Price Index

97FOOD OUTLOOKNOVEMBER 2019

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FOOD OUTLOOKNOVEMBER 2019

FOOD OUTLOOKNOVEMBER 2019

October registered the first monthly increase in the value of the FAO Food Price Index since May 20193

The FAO Food Price Index2 (FFPI) averaged 172.7 points in

October 2019, up by 4.2 percent (3 points) from September

and 6.0 percent higher than in the corresponding period

last year. The increase in October marked the first

significant month-on-month rise in the value of the Index

since May 2019, as surges in the prices of sugar, cereals

and, to a lesser extent, meat and vegetable oils, more than

offset a small decline in the value of the dairy sub-index.

The FAO Cereal Price Index averaged 164.0 points

in October, up by 4.2 percent (nearly 7 points) from

September but still 1.0 percent below its October 2018

level. International wheat prices moved up sharply in

October largely on robust trade activities and lower crop

prospects in Argentina and Australia. Among major coarse

grains, maize export prices also surged in October from

very low levels in September, reflecting not only reduced

crops in the United States and worries over planting

conditions in Argentina, but also a pick-up in export sales.

By contrast, FAO’s rice price index subsided in October,

driven by declines in fragrant rice quotations prompted by

low demand and prospects of an abundant basmati harvest.

The FAO Vegetable Oil Price Index averaged 136.4

points in October, up 0.5 percent (or 0.7 points) from

the previous month and marking the highest level since

September 2018. The small month-on-month increase

mainly reflects higher palm oil price quotations, which more

than offset lower values for sunflower and rapeseed oils.

International palm oil prices rose for the third consecutive

month, fuelled by firm global import demand and

expectations of an output slowdown in leading producing

countries, as well as news of higher biodiesel mandates

in Indonesia next year. By contrast, sunflower oil price

calorie-weighted GFCPI. By contrast, the high share of fish in

total protein consumption (7.2 percent, Table 1) makes it an

important element in the protein-weighted GFCPI.

98 FOOD OUTLOOKNOVEMBER 2019

FIgure 2. FAO Global Food Consumption Price Index – calorie vs protein-based

140

168

196

224

252

280

Oct

-19

Jun

-19

Jan

-19

Jun

-18

Jan

-18

Jun

-17

Jan

-17

Jun

-16

Jan

-16

Jun

-15

Jan

-15

Jun

-14

Jan

-14

Jun

-13

Jan

-13

Jun

-12

Jan

-12

Jun

-11

Jan

-11

Jun

-10

Jan

-10

2002–2004=100

GFCPI - Calorie GFCPI - Protein

Table 1: Shares of global average calorie and protein consumption by commodity

Calorie share

%

Protein share

w%

Wheat 24.5 28.3

Rice 24.1 17.2

Coarse grains 9.8 9.3

Sugar 10.6 0

Oilseeds 2.3 3.6

Vegetable oils 11.4 0

Bovine meat 1.8 6.1

Ovine meat 0.1 1.1

Pigmeat 5.0 7.1

Poultry 2.1 7.0

Milk excluding butter 5.6 12.7

Butter 1.2 0

Fish 1.3 7.2

Total 100 100

Note: Shares computed from FAO Food Balance data for 2002-04, and

normalized to sum to 100

2 The FAO Food Price Index and its sub-indices are updated on a montly basis and are available on http://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation3 The FAO Global Food Consumption Price Index is published twice a year in Food Outlook.

Merritt Cluff (International Consultant)

[email protected]

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FOOD OUTLOOKNOVEMBER 2019

FOOD OUTLOOKNOVEMBER 2019

145

153

161

169

177

185

2002−2004=100

2016

20192018

2017

FAO Food Price Index

DNOSAJJMAMFJ

112

144

176

208

240

2018 2019

2002−2004=100

Dairy

Vegetable oils

Cereals

Sugar

Meat

FAO Food Commodity Price Indices

OSAJAMJDNO F M J

quotations fell on active farmer selling in the wake of

bumper sunflower seed harvests in the Black Sea region,

while higher than expected rapeseed crushing in the EU

weighed on rapeseed oil prices.

The FAO Dairy Price Index averaged almost 192 points

in October, down 0.7 percent (1.4 points) from the

previous month, representing the second consecutive

month of decline but still 5.6 percent above its level in the

corresponding month last year. The October decline was

the result of notably lower quotations for cheese, more

than offsetting increases in those for Skim Milk Powder

(SMP) and Whole Milk Powder (WMP). Increased export

availabilities in New Zealand were the principal factor

behind the latest decline in cheese price quotations. By

contrast, strong import demand, especially from Asia for

short-term deliveries, underpinned the price increases of

SMP and WMP. After four months of continuous decline,

butter prices began to stabilize, reflecting renewed

import interests.

The FAO Meat Price Index4 averaged 182.7 points in

October, up 0.9 percent (1.7 points) from September,

representing the ninth consecutive monthly increase.

International price quotations for bovine and ovine meats

continued to rise, with buoyant import demand, especially

from China, providing support. Quotations for pig meat

also increased, albeit moderately, reflecting continued

import demand in Asia despite seasonally increasing

supplies from Europe and higher export availabilities

in Brazil. Prices of poultry meat fell under downward

pressure due to increased export availabilities in main

producing regions.

The FAO Sugar Price Index averaged 178.3 points in

October, up 5.8 percent (9.8 points) from its reduced

September average. The sharp rebound in international

sugar prices in October was mainly underpinned by

expectation of much tighter supply prospects in 2019/20.

Latest indications point to a significant contraction in

sugar output in India, the world’s largest sugar producer,

mainly because of a 10 percent reduction in sugarcane

planted area compared to the previous season. Likewise,

sugar output in Thailand, the world’s second largest

sugar exporter, is seen lower by 7 percent from last year

as a result of protracted dry conditions. Still, sugar prices

remained volatile, influenced by swings in crude oil prices,

changing weather conditions in India, and movements in

the Brazilian Real against the United States Dollar.

4 Unlike for other commodity groups, most prices utilized in the calculation of the FAO Meat Price Index are not available when the FAO Food Price Index is computed and published; therefore, the value of the Meat Price Index for the most recent months is derived from a mixture of projected and observed prices. This can, at times, require significant revisions in the final value of the FAO Meat Price Index which could in turn influence the value of the FAO Food Price Index.

99FOOD OUTLOOKNOVEMBER 2019

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100 FOOD OUTLOOKNOVEMBER 2019

Food Price Index1 Meat2 Dairy3 Cereals4 Vegetable Oils5 Sugar6

2001 94.6 100.1 105.5 86.8 67.2 122.6

2002 89.6 89.9 80.9 93.7 87.4 97.8

2003 97.7 95.9 95.6 99.2 100.6 100.6

2004 112.7 114.2 123.5 107.1 111.9 101.7

2005 118.0 123.7 135.2 101.3 102.7 140.3

2006 127.2 120.9 129.7 118.9 112.7 209.6

2007 161.4 130.8 219.1 163.4 172.0 143.0

2008 201.4 160.7 223.1 232.1 227.1 181.6

2009 160.3 141.3 148.6 170.2 152.8 257.3

2010 188.0 158.3 206.6 179.2 197.4 302.0

2011 229.9 183.3 229.5 240.9 254.5 368.9

2012 213.3 182.0 193.6 236.1 223.9 305.7

2013 209.8 184.1 242.7 219.3 193.0 251.0

2014 201.8 198.3 224.1 191.9 181.1 241.2

2015 164.0 168.1 160.3 162.4 147.0 190.7

2016 161.5 156.2 153.8 146.9 163.8 256.0

2017 174.6 170.1 202.2 151.6 168.8 227.3

2018 168.4 166.3 192.9 165.3 144.0 177.5

2018 October 162.9 160.4 181.8 165.7 132.9 175.4

November 161.8 162.6 175.8 164.1 125.3 183.1

December 161.5 162.4 170.0 167.8 125.8 179.6

2019 January 163.9 160.1 182.1 168.7 131.2 181.9

February 167.0 162.7 192.4 168.5 133.5 184.1

March 167.6 164.5 204.3 164.7 127.6 180.4

April 170.7 170.9 215.0 160.1 128.7 181.7

May 173.8 174.3 226.1 162.3 127.4 176.0

June 173.2 176.4 199.2 173.5 125.5 183.3

July 171.7 178.9 193.5 168.4 126.5 182.1

August 169.7 179.6 194.5 157.8 133.9 174.8

September 169.7 181.0 193.4 157.4 135.7 168.6

October 172.7 182.7 192.0 164.0 136.4 178.3

FAO Food Price Indices

1 Food Price Index: Consists of the average of five commodity group price indices mentioned above, weighted with the average export share of each of the groups for

2002−2004. In total 73 price quotations considered by FAO commodity specialists as representing the international prices of the food commodities are included in the

overall index. Each sub-index is a weighted average of the prices of the commodities included in the group, with the base period price consisting of the averages for

the years 2002-2004.

2 Meat Price Index: Computed from average prices of four types of meat, weighted by world average export trade shares for 2002-2004. Commodities include two

poultry products, three bovine meat products, three pig meat products, and one ovine meat product. There are 27 price quotations in total used in the calculation of

the index. Where more than one quotation exists for a given meat type, a simple average is used. Prices for the two most recent months may be estimates and subject

to revision.

3 Dairy Price Index: Consists of butter, SMP, WMP, and cheese price quotations; the average is weighted by world average export trade shares for 2002-2004.

4 Cereals Price Index: This index is compiled using the International Grains Council (IGC) wheat price index, itself an average of ten different wheat price quotations,

1 maize export quotation and 16 rice quotations. The rice quotations are combined into three groups consisting of Indica, Japonica and Aromatic rice varieties. Within

each variety, a simple average of the relative prices of appropriate quotations is calculated; then the average relative prices of each of the three varieties are combined

by weighting them with their assumed (fixed) trade shares. Subsequently, the IGC wheat price index, after converting it to base 2002-2004, the relative prices of maize

and the average relative prices calculated for the rice group as a whole are combined by weighting each commodity with its average export trade share for 2002-2004.

5 Vegetable Oils Price Index: Consists of an average of ten different oils weighted with average export trade shares of each oil product for 2002-2004.

6 Sugar Price Index: Index form of the International Sugar Agreement prices with 2002−2004 as base.

Global exports of bananas, excluding plantain, reached a

record high of 19.2 million tonnes in 2018, on the back of ample growth in supplies. Reported figures for the full year indicate an increase in global shipments of 5.7 percent compared to 2017. Strong supply growth in the two leading exporters, Ecuador and the Philippines, was mainly accountable for this rise. Meanwhile, adverse weather conditions continued to affect shipments from several other key suppliers, most notably Costa Rica and the Dominican Republic.

Available at: http://www.fao.org/economic/est/est-commodities/bananas/en/

BANANA MARKET REVIEW

Food Outlook is published by the Trade and Markets Division of FAO under the Global Information and Early Warning System (GIEWS).

It is a biannual publication focusing on developments affecting global food and feed markets. Each report provides market assessments and short term forecasts on a commodity by commodity basis and includes feature articles on topical issues. Food Outlook maintains a close synergy with another major GIEWS publication, Crop Prospects and Food Situation, especially with regard to the coverage of cereals. Food Outlook is available in English. The summary section is also available in Arabic, Chinese, French, Russian and Spanish.

Food Outlook and other GIEWS reports are available on the internet as part of the FAO world wide web (http://www.fao.org/) at the following URL address: http://www.fao.org/giews/. Other relevant studies on markets and the global food situation can be found at http://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation.

This report is based on information available up to late October 2019.

For enquiries or further information contact:

Trade and Markets Division

Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations

Viale delle Terme di Caracalla

00153 Rome - Italy

Telephone: 0039-06-5705-3264

Facsimile: 0039-06-5705-4495

E-mail: [email protected] or [email protected]

CA6911EN/1/11.19

ISBN 978-92-5-131932-1 ISSN 0251-1959

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