florida in 2016: again the nation’s premier · election dynamics in 2016 •florida: key...
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Florida in 2016:Again the Nation’s Premier
Swing State
Dr. Susan A. MacManus @DrMacManusUniversity of South Florida, Tampa
Dept. of Govt. & Intl. AffairsAnthony Cilluffo, Georgia Pevy, David Bonanza Research Associates
Florida Court Clerks and ComptrollersOrlando, Florida
June 28, 2016SLIDESHOW FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY
Election Dynamics in 2016• Florida: key battleground state• 2 major statewide races: President and U.S. Senate• 3 major elections: Presidential Primary (March 15),
Regular Primary (Aug. 30), General Election (Nov. 8)• 2 major national party conventions (GOP July 18-21;
DEM Week of July 25)• Fundraising for campaigns at all levels• Interface with national parties and PACs• Constant barrage of political-related media• New district lines—U.S. Congress, state legislature
Federal & State Offices Up for ElectionFederal• President and Vice President• U.S. Senate (one seat)• U.S. House of Representatives (Congress); all 27 seatsState: Statewide• 4 Supreme Ct. Justices (Canady, Polston, Labarga, Perry)—nonpartisan
retention election (Yes or No); terms expire Jan. 2017State: Multi-County/District• Florida Senate (all 40)• Florida House of Representatives (all 120)• District Court of Appeals judges whose terms expire Jan. 2017;
nonpartisan retention election (Yes or No)• Circuit Court judges whose terms expire Jan 2017; (nonpartisan
competitive elections); August primary• State Attorney (19 Judicial Circuits; not 20th)• Public Defender (19 Judicial Circuits; not 20th)• County Court judges whose terms expire Jan. 2017; (nonpartisan
competitive elections); August primary
Local Offices Up for Election (can vary from county-to-county)
Board of County Commissioners
School Board (nonpartisan); primary in August
Elected School Superintendent (41 counties)
County Constitutional Offices • Sheriff• Tax Collector• Property Appraiser• Clerk of the Circuit Court• Supervisor of Elections (all counties but Miami-Dade)
Florida U.S. Senate Race – Competitive!
Democratic:
• Alan Grayson
• Pam Keith
• Patrick Murphy
Republican:
• Carlos Beruff
• Marco Rubio
Down-Ballot Impact
What’s Different in 2016?
Voter AttitudesTrust levelsFearsAnger
Tone of Candidates, AdsHeightened Activism/Protests
Direction of the Country
Presidential Job Approval
Congressional Job Approval
Americans Distrustful of Govt.
Americans Distrustful of Media
Americans Distrustful of Wall Street• Does Wall Street do more to…
• New York DEM (%) REP (%)
Help the economy 30 43
Hurt the economy 63 48
• Connecticut DEM (%) REP (%)
Help the economy 29 50
Hurt the economy 63 41
• Maryland DEM (%) REP (%)
Help the economy 33 50
Hurt the economy 55 39
Americans Wary of Global Involvement
Widespread Financial Insecurity—At Home and Nationally
• Two-thirds (66%) of Americans would struggle to pay an unexpected $1,000 bill
• Only 22% of Americans say the national economy has recovered
–66% of Americans describe their personal finances as “good”
• 62% have not received a pay increase in recent years
Income Disparities in Florida
Florida Economy Diversifying
Economy, Jobs and Terrorism Topping Voter’s Minds in Presidential Race
Issue % Extremely/Very Important
– The Economy 92
– Employment and Jobs 89
– Terrorism and Nat’l Security 87
– Education 86
– Healthcare and ACA 83
Gallup Poll, May 18-22, 2016, of 1,530 U.S. adults. Margin of error ±3%
Issue % Extremely/Very Important
– The Economy 92
– Employment and Jobs 89
– Terrorism and Nat’l Security 87
– Education 86
– Healthcare and ACA 83
Fear for Personal and Family Security
• “San Bernardino Terrorist Attack Shatters Southern California’s Illusion of Safety”
• “At Butler County School, A Day of Fear’”
• “‘We Need Healing,’ Pastor Says After Fatal Church Shooting During Hymns”
Terrorism Random Shootings
Orlando Massacre
Intersection:
Terrorism and Random Shootings
Q. Was it Terrorism? Lack of Gun Control?
A. Opinions divided; Partisan Polarization!
Pop Culture and Politics
Florida: Nation’s Premier Swing State
First Battleground Map: 2016 Gen. Election
Map of Main Battleground States: 2016 Gen. Election
Record Levels of Dislike Towards Candidates
Dislike is Motivating Voters
Right Now: US Look
What is a Swing State?
Diversity• Race/ethnicity• Age• Economic• Party AffiliationAbility to Pick Winning Candidate
Florida’s Close!!2010 Gov., 2012 Pres., 2014 Gov.
Results
Obama 50.0%Romney 49.1%
Scott 48.9% Sink 47.7%
Scott 48.2%Crist 47.1%
Turnout
Florida Picks Winners!
High Level of Party Competition
Party Registration Trend: FLA. 1972- Mar. 2016
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Mar
ch 2
016
Per
cen
t
Florida Voter Registration by Party Affiliation: 1972 - 2016(Through March 2016 Presidential Preference Primary)
Republican Democrat Other
Race/Ethnicity
6.1
0.1
0.3
0.3
0.5
0.6
0.7
1.3
1.3
1.4
2.0
2.4
2.4
2.5
3.2
4.1
7.1
14.9
20.1
28.7
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
All other Hispanic or Latino
Paraguayan
Bolivian
Uruguayan
Costa Rican
Chilean
Panamanian
Salvadoran
Argentinean
Ecuadorian
Guatemalan
Peruvian
Venezuelan
Honduran
Nicaraguan
Dominican
Colombian
Mexican
Puerto Rican
Cuban
Percent
Ethnicity of Florida's Hispanics (2010)
Racial/Ethnic Vote: FL
Focus on Generations in 2016
Why Look at Generations?
• Generational differences, especially in racial and ethnic composition, political preferences, and news sources, have become a major focal point of today’s campaigns.
• Analyses of the two “super generations,” the Millennials and the Baby Boomers, have made it clear that successful campaigns need to micro-target voters differently across generations, sometimes even within the same party.
•
Living Generations: Major Life Events, Presidents
Generation Born Age (2016) Major Events Presidents*
Greatest Generation/
GI Generation
Before
1928
89+ World War II, The Great
Depression, The New Deal
Franklin Delano Roosevelt
The Silent Generation 1928-
1945
71-88 Postwar Happiness, Era of
Conformity, Korean War
Harry Truman and Dwight
Eisenhower
The Baby Boomers 1946-
1964
52-70 Civil Rights Movement, 60s
Youth Culture—Save the
World Activism, Drugs, Free
Love, Vietnam War
John F. Kennedy, Lyndon B.
Johnson, Richard Nixon,
Gerald Ford, and Jimmy
Carter
Generation X 1965-
1980
36-51 MTV, 24-hour news, latch-key
kids, transition to computers,
AIDS
Ronald Reagan, George
H.W. Bush, and Bill Clinton
Millennials/
Generation Y
After
1980
18 to
35**
9/11, Social Media, Iraq and
Afghanistan conflicts, Great
Recession, BP oil spill
George W. Bush and
Barack Obama
Reaching Younger Voters
Gender in 2016
Gender Gap: FL
Religion in Florida (Pew)70% Christian
24% Evangelical Protestants14% Mainline Protestants8% Historically Black Protestants
21% Catholic6% Non-Christian Faiths
3% Jewish<1% each--Muslin, Buddhist, Hindu, and other
24% Unaffiliated (“no religion,” secular)
Urban-Suburban-Rural Split
Media Market Definitions
Recap: Florida Presidential Preference Primary (March)
Republicans: Turnout and Vote Patterns by Media Market
•
47
33
47
5249
4844
37
4945 46
24
49
2523 25
22 24 2419
2427
18
10
18
1318 17
22
2924
2117
75 6 9 5
97 7
5 6 7
56 49 57 55 56 62 53 56 53 54 55
-
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Turn
ou
t Pe
rcen
t (%) fo
r Party
Pe
rce
nt (
%) o
f Vo
tes
Cas
t fo
r Par
ty
2016 Republican Primary Results and Turnout Rate:Florida's 10 Media Markets
(by Size of Media Market, Largest to Smallest)
Trump Rubio Cruz Kasich Turnout
Democrats: Turnout and Vote Patterns by Media Market
•
61
73
62
69
63 63
58
58
49 49
64
36
26
36
29 34 34
38 38 42
48
33
39 34 38 39 37 38 36 43
31 44 37
-
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Turnout Percent (%
) for PartyPe
rcen
t (%
) of
Vot
es C
ast f
or P
arty
2016 Democratic Primary Results and Turnout Rate:Florida's 10 Media Markets
(by Size of Media Market, Largest to Smallest)
Clinton Sanders Turnout
Gender Patterns: Florida PPP• Gender DEM (%) REP (%)
Male 42 49
Female 58 51
• Marital Status
& Gender DEM (%)
Married Men 24
Married Women 30
Unmarried Men 16
Unmarried Women 30
Age Patterns: Florida PPP
• Age DEM (%) REP (%)
18-29 15 9
30-44 20 17
45-64 39 45
65 and Older 25 29
Race/Ethnicity: Florida PPP• Race/Ethnicity DEM (%) REP (%)
White 48 78
Black 27 3
Latino 20 16
Asian 2 1
Other 3 2
• Hispanics DEM (%) REP (%)
Cubans 3 9
Other Hispanics 13 6
Not Hispanic 83 85
Education and Income: Florida PPP• Education DEM (%) REP (%)
High School or less 19 17
Some College 33 31
College Graduate 32 35
Postgraduate 16 17
• Income DEM (%) REP (%)
Under $50,000 50 33
$50,000-$100,000 31 32
$100,000 or more 19 35
Religion and Ideology: Florida PPP• Religion DEM (%) REP (%)
Protestant 36 51
Catholic 22 29
Jewish 4 2
Another Religion 16 11
No Religion 21 8
• Ideology DEM (%) REP (%)
Liberal 54 3
Moderate 37 27
Conservative 9 70
Timing and Geography of Voters: Florida PPP
• Timing of Vote
Decision DEM (%) REP (%)
Within last week 17 28
Last month 15 23
Earlier 67 47
• Geography DEM (%) REP (%)
Urban 52 40
Suburban 42 49
Rural 5 11
58% 56%
43%
33%
43%
38%
29%
19% 20%
42% 41%
46%
59% 58%
44%
31% 32%36%
31%35%
26%25% 26%
18% 21%
77%74%
79%74%
77% 77% 75% 73%
83%
67%70%
74% 75%
72%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016
Pe
rce
nt
of V
ote
rs (%
)Florida Presidential Election Voter Turnout, 1960-2016
Presidential Preference Primary First Primary General Election
Turnout in Presidential Election Increases (Florida Data)
• Presidential 2008 75%• Presidential Preference Primary 42%• Governor 2010 (midterm) 49%
• Presidential 2012 72%
• Presidential Preference Primary 41%
• Governor 2014 (midterm) 50%
• Presidential 2016 ?• Presidential Preference Primary 46%
Sharpest Increase in Turnout in Presidential Elections
• Young Voters
• Minorities (African Americans; Hispanics)
• Unmarried Females
Issues Important to Base: GOTV (Turnout) Mechanisms
Democrats• Minimum Wage• Restoration of felon voting rights• Income Inequality• Medicaid expansion• Election processes • Gun control/Stand Your Ground• Police conduct/sentencing
disparities • Reproductive rights • Marijuana legalization• Cost of education• Environment• Social Services• Fracking
Republicans• Economy/economic development• Jobs• Immigration• Taxes/Tax Breaks & Incentives• Government spending• 2nd Amendment/Gun rights• Religious freedom• Common Core• Uber/Lyft• Law Enforcement Funding• School choice• Fraud in registration/voting/illegals
Florida Politics at Your Fingertips
USF-NIELSEN STATEWIDE SURVEY:FOCUS ON ISSUES AND POLICIES
sunshinestatesurvey.org
2016 Surveycoming in October
Looming Questions
• Unforeseen event(s)?
• Debate performances?
• Anti-establishment voter turnout?
• Cross-over vote?
• Third party candidate?
• Suburban white women vote?
• Violence and political protests?
Fla. Right Now: Dead Heat
Expectations Going Into 2016: Close, AGAIN!
Swing
State!
Gender in 2016
Direction of the Country
Presidential Job Approval
Congressional Job Approval
Age
Young v. Old Voters: FL
Horse Race Polls Under Attack
Pundit Prediction
• “There are plenty of subplots in the unfolding [2016] presidential election, but the gender fight is among the most interesting of them—and one that will be critical to the outcome.” Charlie Cook, political
analyst, National Journal, June 27, 2015
Women in 2016
• Women candidates are becoming more effective at combatting gender stereotypes.
• Virtually every major campaign now has female managers, strategists, pollsters, and consultants on board to ensure that female voters are targeted and mobilized.
• Women are everywhere in media campaign coverage —as anchors, reporters, commentators, columnists, and bloggers.
Top Candidate Quality: Florida PPP• Top Candidate
Quality DEM (%) REP (%)
Electability 12 10
Other Qualities-DEM
Experience 35
Honest 25
Cares 25
Other Qualities-REP
Shares my values 34
Can bring change 28
Tells it like it is 23
How do Florida PPP Voters Stand on the Democratic Candidates?
Candidate Attitudes--DEM Hillary Clinton
(%)
Bernie Sanders
(%)_____’s positions on
the issues are…
Too Liberal 11 27
Not Liberal Enough 17 16
About Right 68 50
Is _____ honest and
trustworthy?
Yes 63 75
No 35 20
Are _____’s policies… Realistic 80 48
Not Realistic 15 46
How do Florida PPP Voters Stand on the Republican Candidates?
Candidate Attitudes--REP Trump
(%)
Rubio
(%)
Cruz
(%)
If _____ wins the GOP
nomination, would you…
Not Vote for Him 25 24 23
Probably Vote for Him 16 28 31
Definitely Vote for Him 57 45 43
Is _____ honest and
trustworthy?
Yes 49 55 48
No 44 40 44
Overall Turnout: 50%
11
18
2123
5
10
3033
23
35
20
28
20
1
9
44
37
11
24
2527
23
5
11
44 43
15
1
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Mar
gin
of
Vic
tory
in M
edia
Mar
ket
Margin of Victory 2010 GOV, 2012 PRES, 2014 GOV
Media Markets(Blue) DEM Victory(Red) REP Victory
Record Levels of Dislike Towards Candidates
GOP Race to Date
Dem. Race to Date
Electoral Map: 2016 Gen. Election
Democrat-Specific Issues: Florida PPPIssue Positions Democrats
(%)The next president
should…
Continue Obama’s Policies 55
Be More Liberal 25
Be Less Liberal 14
Race relations in this
country have…
Gotten Better 19
Stayed the Same 32
Gotten Worse 46
Who do you trust to
handle race relations?
Only Clinton 25
Only Sanders 17
Both 46
Neither 7
Are you worried about the
U.S. Economy?
Very Worried 33
Somewhat Worried 32
Not Too Worried 25
Not at All Worried 9
The candidate’s gender
was…
The Most Important Factor 6
An Important Factor 16
Not a Factor 76
Republican-Specific Issues:Florida PPP
Issue Positions Republicans
(%)Illegal immigrants working in
the U.S. should be…
Offered Legal Status 54
Deported to Home Country 37
Do you support or oppose a
temporary ban on Muslims
entering the U.S.?
Support 64
Oppose 26
What are your feelings about
the federal government?
Enthusiastic 2
Satisfied 10
Dissatisfied 46
Angry 40
Do you feel betrayed by
Republican politicians?
Yes 60
No 37
If Trump and Clinton were
nominated, would you…
Be Satisfied 62
Consider a Third Party 29
Is it necessary to reduce Social
Security benefits?
Yes 30
No 67
Is U.S. support for Israel… Too Strong 8
Not Strong Enough 60
About Right 28
Top Issue and Candidate Quality:Issue Positions Democrats
(%)
Republicans
(%)Most Important Issue Economy/Jobs 35 35
Terrorism 15 22
Other Issues—DEM
Health Care
Income Inequality
25
21
Other Issues—REP
Government Spending
Immigration
26
12
Top Candidate Quality Electability 12 10
Other Qualities—DEM
Experience
Honest
Cares
35
25
25
Other Qualities—REP
Shares my Values
Can Bring Change
Tells it Like it is
34
28
23
The Next President
Should Be…
Experienced in Politics 77 40
Outside the
Establishment 18 52