five year financial forecast october 2012 cleveland municipal school district the primary goal of...
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Cleveland Municipal School District 3 Major AssumptionsTRANSCRIPT
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FIVE YEAR FINANCIAL FORECASTOCTOBER 2012
Cleveland Municipal School District
The primary goal of the Cleveland Municipal School District is to become a premier school district in the United States of
America.
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Five Year Forecast - Contents
Major AssumptionsGeneral Fund RevenuesGeneral Fund ExpendituresFive Year Forecast Summary
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Cleveland Municipal School District
Major Assumptions
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Major Assumptions
Revenue: Forecast assumes no new levy revenue. Forecast assumes that the property tax current collection rate will
remain at 78.87%. Current economic conditions continue to have a significant impact on tax collection rates.
In 2012 Cuyahoga County will complete the six year reappraisal of all property. The impact on the District should be minimal.
Projections are based on the bridge formula to determine state funding in all years.
Forecast assumes the Average Daily Membership for K-12 to be:FY13 – 38,182FY14 – 36,615FY 15 – 35,117FY16 – 34,095FY 17 – 33,233
Forecast assumes that Charter School ADM will increase by 70% of CMSD decrease.
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Major Assumptions continued
Expenditures: Forecast assumes a total of 2,591 classroom teachers in FY13 (2,300 are
budgeted within the General Fund). Forecast assumes 50 less employees each year in FY14-17 due to attrition. Forecast shifted $4.3 million of personnel costs to the General Fund in
FY13 due to a decline in Title I funding. Forecast shifts $2.0 million of personnel cost to the General Fund in FY14
due to a decline in federal funding. Healthcare rates are forecasted to increase 7.7% in FY13 and 9.7% in
FY14-16. Forecast assumes all union agreements as currently defined including step
increases. Forecast assumes a $3.2 textbook budget for all fiscal years. $13.1 million of adjustments are necessary to balance the budget for the
2012 – 2013 school year.
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Cleveland Municipal School District
General Fund Revenues
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Cleveland Municipal School DistrictFY 2012-2013
Local Taxes; 23.7%
State; 67.7%
State of Ohio Re-
im-burse-ments, 4.3%Other;
4.3%
Where the Money Comes From
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General Fund Revenue Decline
2010 2011 2012 2013*475.0495.0515.0535.0555.0575.0595.0615.0635.0655.0675.0
662.7 668.2654.2
611.2
564.4 562.2537.2
480.8
Total RevenueTotal Revenue Excluding Charter
$51.5 million
$83.6 million
*Projected
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Cleveland Municipal School DistrictLocal Taxes – Property Tax Revenue
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 20170.0
25.0
50.0
75.0
100.0
125.0
150.0
175.0
147.1 148.1 144.1 144.0 144.0 144.0 144.0 144.0
4.3 1.0 0.3 1.0
Real Estate Personal TangibleFiscal Year
R e v e n u e ( I n M i l l i o n s )
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Cleveland Municipal School DistrictProperty Taxes – Current Collection Rate
75.0
77.0
79.0
81.0
83.0
85.0
87.0
89.0
91.0
93.0
95.0
97.0
99.098.6
80.978.9C
urre
nt C
olle
ctio
n R
ate
Year
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Cleveland Municipal School DistrictProperty Taxes – Total Collection Rate
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
75.0077.0079.0081.0083.0085.0087.0089.0091.0093.0095.0097.0099.00
101.00103.00105.00107.00
98.6
78.9
1.3
6.5
Current Collection Rate Delinquencies
Cur
rent
Col
lect
ion
Rat
e
Year
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Cleveland Municipal School DistrictState Foundation Revenue
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017$400
$405
$410
$415
$420
$425
$430
$435
$440
411.3404.5
421.4413.9 411.2 408.0 405.8 403.9
27.334.1
State Foundation Fiscal Stabilization Fund
Rev
enue
(In
Mill
ions
)
Fiscal Year
13
Cleveland Municipal School DistrictState Foundation Revenue – Excluding Charter School Portion
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017$240
$250
$260
$270
$280
$290
$300
$310
$320
$330
$340
313.0298.5 304.4
283.4271.6
260.9 253.6 247.4
27.334.1
State Foundation Fiscal Stabilization Fund
Rev
enue
(In
Mill
ions
)
Fiscal Year
14
Cleveland Municipal School DistrictEducation Jobs
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017$0
$5
$10
$15
$20
17.7
Education Jobs
R e v e n u e ( I n M i l l i o n s )
Fiscal Year
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Cleveland Municipal School DistrictProperty Tax Allocation – State Hold Harmless Reimbursements
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
12.4 12.4 12.3 12.2 12.2 12.2 12.2 12.2
4.5 4.4
38.6 39.8
26.913.9 13.9 13.9 13.9 13.9
Property Tax Reimbursements Utility Tax Reimbursements HB 66 CAT Reimbursements
R e v e n u e ( I n M i l l i o n s )
Fiscal Year
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Cleveland Municipal School DistrictOther Revenue
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017$0
$5
$10
$15
$20
$25
$30
10.6
18.224.4
18.3 20.3 20.6 20.7 20.72.4
2.1
0.6
0.40.4
0.40.4 0.4
1.7
1.9
1.8
6.2 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0
2.5
1.7
3.51.4
1.31.2 1.1
1 1
Other Interest Catastrophic Aid Medicaid Advance In
Fiscal Year
Rev
enue
(In
Mill
ions
)
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Cleveland Municipal School DistrictTotal Revenue – Excluding Charter School Portion
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
151.4 149.1 144.4 145.0 144.1 144.1 144.1 144.1
340.3 332.6 304.4 283.4 271.6 260.9 253.6 247.4
55.5 56.639.2
26.1 26.1 26.1 26.1 26.1
17.2 23.931.7
26.2 25.9 26.1 26.1 26.117.7
Property Tax State Foundation Ed JobsState Reimbursement Other
Rev
enue
(In
Mill
ions
)
Fiscal Year
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Cleveland Municipal School District
General Fund Expenditures
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Cleveland Municipal School DistrictWhere the Money Goes
Salaries & Ben-efits,
$393,133,569, 61.3%
Charter School Pass-Through; 130500000;
20.3%
All Other; 118262885;
18.4%
FY 2012-2013
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Cleveland Municipal School DistrictSalaries
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017$250
$270
$290
$310
$330
$350
$370
359.3
312.7 309.3
276.3289.0 288.5 287.8 286.8
Salaries
Fiscal Year
E x p e n d i t u r e s ( I n M i l l i o n s )
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Cleveland Municipal School DistrictFringe Benefits
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
$140
50.2 47.9 44.7 41.0 42.6 42.8 42.7 42.6
60.754.9 57.7 56.5 62.0 67.8 74.1 80.9
4.43.9 4.0
3.73.9
3.93.9
3.96.6
5.2 4.54.4
4.44.4
4.44.4
3.57.8 8.4 11.2
7.36.2
4.53.9
STRS/SERS Employee Insurance Benefits MedicareWorkers Compensation Other
Fiscal Year
E x p e n d i t u r e s ( I n M i l l i o n s )
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Cleveland Municipal School DistrictPurchased Services
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
15.1 14.2 12.0 12.8 13.0 13.2 13.4 13.69.3 7.8 10.3 10.8 11.0 11.2 11.4 11.4
63.4 56.5 57.7 69.0 69.3 70.0 70.8 71.7
98.3 106.0 117.0130.5 139.6 147.1 152.2 156.5
Utilities Student Transportation (Contract)Other Purchased Services Charter School Pass-Through
Fiscal Year
Expe
ndit
ures
(In
M
illio
ns)
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Cleveland Municipal School DistrictSupplies, Textbooks, Equipment, and Other Expenditures
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 20170.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
12.69.0 10.0 10.6 10.6 10.6 10.6 10.6
1.3
0.8 1.0 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7
7.8
8.3 6.5 7.4 7.5 7.7 7.8 7.3
7.711.5
4.27.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0
Supplies and Textbooks Equipment Other Expense Transfers/Advances
E x p e n d i t u r e s ( I n M i l l i o n s )
Fiscal Year
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Cleveland Municipal School DistrictTotal Expenditures– Excluding Charter School Portion
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 20170.0
100.0
200.0
300.0
400.0
500.0
600.0
359.3 312.7 309.3 276.3 289.0 288.5 287.8 286.8
125.3119.8 119.3
116.8 120.2 125.1 129.6 135.7
87.878.4 80.0
92.6 93.3 94.4 95.6 96.7
12.69.0 10.0 10.6 10.6 10.6 10.6 10.6
15.519.8 10.7 14.4 14.5 14.7 14.8 14.3
Wages Benefits Purchased ServicesSupplies and Materials Capital Outlay Other
E x p e n d i t u r e s ( I n M i l l i o n s )
Fiscal Year
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Cleveland Municipal School District
Five-Year Forecast Summary
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Cleveland Municipal School DistrictOctober 2012 Five-Year Forecast
(in millions of dollars)
Beginning Cash Balance $50.4 $13.0 $34.8 $41.8 $11.1 ($49.8) ($126.8) ($216.2)
Total Revenues 662.7 668.2 654.3 611.2 607.2 604.2 602.0 600.1
Total Expenses 700.1 646.4 647.3 655.0 668.1 681.2 691.4 701.3 (13.1)
Revenue over Expenses (37.4) 21.8 7.0 (30.7) (60.9) (77.0) (89.4) (101.2)
Ending Cash Balance 13.0 34.8 41.8 11.1 (49.8) (126.8) (216.2) (317.4)
Encumbrances/Reserves 6.5 8.2 11.1 11.1 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0
Unencumbered Balance $6.5 $26.6 $30.7 $0.0 ($56.8) ($133.8) ($223.2) ($324.4)
FY 2017FY 2016FY 2014 FY 2015 FY 2010 FY 2011 FY 2012 FY 2013
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Summary
Fiscal Year 2012 - 2013$13.1 million of adjustments are necessary to
balance the budget.
Fiscal Year 2013 - 2014A significant deficit of $56.8 million is
projected for the school year 2013 - 2014.
Fiscal Caution, Watch and Emergency
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Fiscal Caution Fiscal Watch Fiscal Emergency
Lower bond ratingsState controlHigher Class Sizes
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QUESTIONS
T H E P R I M A R Y G O A L O F T H E C L E V E L A N D M U N I C I PA L S C H O O L D I S T R I C T I S T O B E C O M E A P R E M I E R S C H O O L D I S T R I C T I N T H E U N I T E D S T A T E S O F
A M E R I C A .
Cleveland Municipal School District
Five-Year Financial Forecast – October 2012