Fiscal Policy

Has it worked?Is more needed?

Oregon Economic ForumOctober 22, 2009

Mark ThomaDepartment of Economics

University of Oregon

What is Fiscal Policy?

• A text book definition would be something like: A plan for government spending and taxes designed to achieve some goal.

• So there are two components, spending (the government buying goods and services) and taxes (net of transfers).

How Does Fiscal Policy Work?

• Multiplier effects• Government spending and tax multipliers can differ

– Speed of impact– Size of impact– Effects on economic growth

• Graphs of Disposable Income and Government Spending

Disposable Personal Income1990:M1 – 2009:M8, Nominal

First Stimulus Package

Second Stimulus Package

Disposable Personal Income1990:M1 – 2009:M8, Real

First Stimulus Package

Second Stimulus Package

Federal Government Expenditures1990:Q1-2009:Q2

Second Stimulus Package

Multiplier Estimates(Romer and Bernstein, “The Job Impact of the ARRA,” May 2009)

What Can Go Wrong?

• Tax Cuts Saved, Not Spent• Stimulus not large enough• Bad Timing• Private Activity Crowded Out• Deficit Not Repaid when Things Improve

Has it worked?

• To assess whether it has worked, need a baseline (what would have happened without policy)

• What is the baseline?• We don’t know, it must be estimated• Estimates are model dependent• Evidence

Real GDP1990:Q1 – 2009:Q2

Monthly GDP Estimates (from Macro Advisers)

Sep.06

Oct.06

Nov.06

Dec.06

Jan.07

Feb.07

Mar.07

Apr.07

May.07

Jun.07

Jul.07

Aug.07

Sep.07

Oct.07

Nov.07

Dec.07

Jan.08

Feb.08

Mar.08

Apr.08

May.08

Jun.08

Jul.08

Aug.08

Sep.08

Oct.08

Nov.08

Dec.08

Jan.09

Feb.09

Mar.09

Apr.09

May.09

Jun.09

Jul.09

Aug.09

12,400

12,600

12,800

13,000

13,200

13,400

13,600

Billions of chain-type (2005) dollars

October

August

First Stimulus Package

Second Stimulus Package

May

Tax Rebates and Consumption

Other Evidence?

• Countries with larger stimulus packages grew faster in 2009Q2

• States that spent more lost fewer jobs• Estimated effects• Cash for Clunkers• Incentives to purchase new homes

Cross-Country Evidence

States that Spent More Had a Bigger Employment Change

Estimated Effects of ARRA

Is More Stimulus Needed?

• Things are looking better, but a double dip or very slow return to trend for GDP is not out of the question.

• The recovery of employment is likely to be even slower.

• More stimulus, especially if it generates jobs quickly, would likely boost the recovery.

• So yes, more is needed, but we needed it six months ago. Given lags, harder to justify now.

• In any case, major policy change is unlikely.

FRBSF Estimates of Recovery Trajectory

Unemployment Lags Output

Delayed Peaks

How Much Higher?

Unemployment Since 1990

Delayed Peaks in 90-91 and 2001 recessions

Unemployment hasn’t turned the corner yet

Long-Term Unemployment

High Long-Term Unemployment

Employment to Population Ratio

Low Employment toPopulation Ratio

Private Employment

Employment is Falling

Average Weekly Hours: Private Industry

Average Hours are Falling

Conclude

• Some evidence that fiscal policy has worked• But too early to say anything conclusive• Things look better, but not out of the woods

yet• Speed of recovery and, importantly,

employment would likely improve with more stimulus

• Politically unlikely