Fiscal Policies in the US and Europe

Martin Neil Baily

The Brookings Institution

McKinsey Global Institute

For the CRFB Conference.

March 10, 2011

All data slides prepared by the McKinsey Global Institute. Opinions solely those of the author

Aggregate Demand Policies in the United States

• In the United States, the TARP was used to recapitalize the banks. The Federal Reserve has dropped interest rates to zero, provided credit guaranties and quantitative easing. The $800 billion stimulus package was used to supplement declining private demand. These were the right policies even if they were not executed perfectly.

• The US economy is recovering slowly. This has been a serious illness not a mild cold and it will take several years to recover fully. Taxes were cut too much after 2001, while spending continued to rise, generating chronic deficits. These bad policies are constraining choices now.

• Policy now should follow a ‘wait and see’ approach. No new large fiscal stimulus, but also no sharp fiscal contraction either. As the recovery strengthens, do more fiscal consolidation.

Aggregate Demand Policies in Europe

• Most European economies have safety nets that are more generous than those in the United States. The automatic stabilizers have been effective.

• Many countries discouraged rapid large layoffs, which means that the drop in employment in Europe was less severe than in the United States.

• The ECB was quicker than the FED to recognize the severity of the crisis. It has followed broadly similar policies of low interest rates and quantitative easing but has been somewhat less aggressive . The ECB is now talking prematurely about raising rates.

• Fiscal stimulus has been smaller and is now giving way to the pressure to reduce deficits and undertake fiscal consolidation.

• Germany and France appear to be recovering, especially in Germany where there has been export-driven growth.

Fiscal Consolidation in Europe

• Germany and France have fairly modest programs of consolidation. In Germany, the boost from strong global demand should be enough to sustain growth. France is raising the retirement age.

• Italy is also raising its retirement age, but its economy will continue to struggle with a lack of competitiveness. Spain is being forced to make larger fiscal adjustments as a result of spillover from Greece, and this will slow Spanish growth. Spain also has a cost competitiveness issue.

• It is hard to see how Greece can pay off its debts without restructuring. Ireland has moved aggressively to deal with its budget deficit . Its growth has suffered as a result and it has had to ask for EU help.

• The new coalition government in the UK inherited a very bad fiscal situation and has moved to reduce spending. This seems to be slowing growth, although unlike euro area countries, the pound is free to adjust.

Fiscal Consolidation, Continued

• Is fiscal consolidation contractionary or expansionary?

• Tax increases or expenditure cuts will take money out of the economy and cause a reduction of aggregate demand. There is no need to turn Keynes on his head.

• However, if there is a significant risk of sovereign debt default, this has the potential to be very damaging to economic growth. Policymakers must weigh the costs and risks and choose among unpleasant alternatives.

• In principle, sustaining fiscal expansion now while pledging to reduce deficits in the future is a way around the problem, but it depends upon the believability of the promise.

1 Differs from the Maastricht definition in that it does not include streams of payments and receipts from swap agreements and forward rate agreements.

In most European countries, public debt has soared way above 60 per cent of GDP

SOURCE: OECD Economic Outlook Database, 2010

Gross public debt, Maastricht criterion

7060

Ireland 7625

Germany 7865

United Kingdom 7845

103

Greece 12596

Luxembourg 207

Sweden 4440

Denmark 4527

Finland 5235

Spain 6336

Netherlands 6745

Austria

Portugal 8564

France 8564

Belgium 10084

Italy 119

-3.8

-2.9

-11.7

-5.4

-11.5

-7.4

-7.8

-5.5

-3.8

-9.4

-6.4

-4.7

-4.9

-5.2

-8.1

Government net lending1

% of GDP, 2010 projection

60

2007 level2007 level

Restoring government debt to 60 percent of GDP by 2030will require painful fiscal adjustment in many countries

SOURCE: International Monetary Fund Fiscal Monitor May 14; McKinsey Global Institute

Change in fiscal balance3 required to achieve sustainable government debt1 by 2030Percent of GDP

9.2

4.0

4.1

4.4

5.2

7.8

8.3

9.0

9.4

9.8

12.0

13.1

7.6

Germany

Italy

Canada

Australia

Portugal

France

United Kingdom

Greece2 16.8

Spain

Ireland

United States

Japan1

1 All countries are assumed to target a 60% gross debt to GDP ratio except Japan whose target is set at 80 percent of net debt to GDP which corresponds to a gross debt level of 200 percent of GDP. The transition is assumed to occur gradually in a straight-line fashion between 2010 and 2020.

2 Assuming Greece implements a 7.6 percent of GDP adjustment in their primary balance in 2010.3 Fiscal balance here is the cyclically adjusted primary balance which is equal to the fiscal revenue less net interest expenditure.

Required adjustmentfor advanced G20 countries

Cyclically adjusted primary balance, % of GDP

2010 2020

-6.5

-7.6

-5.8

-2.4

-5.4

-4.6

-4.1

-4.6

-2.2

-6.0

6.7

4.4

3.6

6.8

3.6

3.7

3.7

0.6

2.2

3.8

0.9 5.0

-1.6 2.4

Assumed 2010 adjustmentin Greece primary balance

Conclusions: What to do and what not to do

• The United States must find a credible plan to reduce long term deficits. I would take either Bowles-Simpson or Domenici-Rivlin in a second. Prefer the latter.

• US electorate has not been educated about the need to rein in health care costs and shift away from taxpayer-funded fee-for-service coverage. Have to start this process.

• More broadly, all advanced economies should work towards higher productivity in the provision of public services.

• Health care costs are better controlled in Europe. Pension costs are better contained in the US (except for states and localities).

• The recoveries in the US and Europe are still fragile and need to be nurtured. Avoid premature fiscal consolidation.