firecamms: fire consortia for advanced modeling of meteorology and smoke usda forest service...
TRANSCRIPT
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FireCAMMS:Fire Consortia for Advanced Modeling of Meteorology and Smoke
USDA Forest Service Research and DevelopmentUSDA Forest Service State and Private ForestryUSDA Forest Service National Forest Systems
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Overview of FCAMMSOverview of FCAMMS
o What, where, who & howWhat, where, who & how?
o Answers to your written Answers to your written questions.questions.
o Discussion.Discussion.
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What are FireCAMMS?
• Fire Consortia for Advanced Modeling of Meteorology and Smoke (FireCAMMS) are a coordinated group of regional cooperative centers for high-resolution simulation modeling of weather, fire & smoke.
• They are initiated under support from FS Research as part of the National Fire Plan.
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FireCAMMS do this…By providing timely, high resolution, data
that will: Help managers burn more by identifying additional windows for burning;
Help fire fighters burn safer relative to escaped fire;
Help managers burn cleaner and avoid air quality problems;
Help fire fighters combat wildfire with relevant weather intelligence.
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Forest and rangeland fires are on the increase and a US National Fire Plan has been developed…
• 8.4 million acres burned in 2000 (about 222% above the 10 year average)
• This year:– 6.7 million acres burned through September;– 2.1 million acres of prescribed fire fuel treatments
were conducted by federal agencies through September;
– National preparedness & response reached their highest levels 5 weeks earlier than ever before and remained up for an unprecedented 62 days.
• Each year fuel management targets are increasing.
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Why is smoke important?
• Legal mandates:– Clean Air Act;– State & Local regulatory programs.
• Public Relations:– Fire fighter safety;– Public safety.
• The right thing to do…?
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Regional Haze is a very important issue for smoke management
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Class I AQ & visibility impacts are a legally mandated special concern for
Federal land managers & AQ regulators
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Fire effects visibility & PM2.5
• IMPROVE monitoring suggests a range of 10%-40% of OC (organic carbon contribution to PM2.5) on the high mass days (20% worst visibility) may be from fires.
• Current research suggests biogenic OC is relatively larger than fossil OC, even in eastern urban air.
• In southeast, OC appears to come from live vegetation in summer & fire in winter.
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August 2000 Idaho/Montana wildfire contribution to regulatory regional haze at Bob Marshall wilderness,VIEWS website
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USDA Forest Service must interact constructively with RPO’s
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Technical data & analysis will be required to support FS interests in….
• Smoke Management Programs (SMP)
• Visibility/Regional Haze S/TIPS• NAAQS S/TIPS
– PM2.5 & Ozone
• Public endangerment (highway accidents)
• HAPs (toxic emissions like Mercury)
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Fire and fire emissions are a complex set of issues that will challenge resource management, regulatory, and scientific communities to improve cooperation.
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EPA/RPOs/States
State and National Emissions Inventory
Fire Weather StrategyFire Weather Strategy
Predictive ServicesFire Danger
Fire Potential
Field Units or Incident
GACCS
State/Local Air Quality Managers
Manage Dispersion/ Emission Effects
Refine weather models for other users, Model
Emissions and Dispersion
Smoke Modeling Consortia
EPA/RPOs/States
State and National Emissions Inventory
Fire Weather StrategyFire Weather Strategy
Predictive ServicesFire Danger
Fire Potential
Field Units or Incident
GACCS
State/Local Air Quality Managers
Manage Dispersion/ Emission Effects
Refine weather models for other users, Model
Emissions and Dispersion
Smoke Modeling Consortia
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FCAMMS locations & domains…
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What do FCAMMS do?
– Build consortia to implement and deliver models of:
• meteorology, • fire related phenomena, and• smoke;
– develop & support contemporary computational resources needed to deliver timely products;
– build Forest Service capacity by hiring and training appropriate research scientists and other personnel.
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Inner Ring
Middle Ring
Outer Ring
Small group of scientists and technicians who run MM5 and ancillary models & make results available to others (scientists)
Larger group of specialists who take data from inner ring & combine with other information to produce results and products for agencies (information suppliers)
Largest part of FCAMMS Agencies who use information & provide guidance, funding, & problems for inner and middle rings. (users)
Conceptual structure for FCAMMS
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Conceptual structure for FCAMMS
Ring Meteorology Fire Smoke
Scientists & Technicians
Met modelers & atmos sci.
Fire modelers & scientists
Air Quality modelers & scientists
InformationSuppliers
GACCS & Fire Wx forecasters
FBO’s RPO’s, ? ?
Users Fire fighters
Fire fighters
Air QualityRegulators & public
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So, what are the meteorological products?
• One to four day high resolution (4-12 km) forecasts of the fire products & indices mentioned;
• Regional scale weather forecasts, including:– Wind fields,– Temperature & relative humidity,– Precipitation;
• Regional scale inputs to smoke dispersion models;
• Others….
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FireCAMMS
Frequency of Model
Runs
Run Time
Initialize Times
Model Domain
Grid Spacing
Product Web Address
EAMC Twice-daily 48-hr 00Z, 12Z 36km, 12km, 4km
http://www.ncrs.fs.fed.us/eamc
NWRMC Twice-daily
72hr48hr
00Z, 12Z 36km, 12km, 4km
http://www.atmos.washington.edu/pnw_environ/
SHRMC 4 times -daily
48hr 00Z, 06Z, 12Z, 18Z
36km, 12km, http://shrmc.ggy.uga.edu/
CANSACUCSBNPGMHPCC
TwiceTwice
48hr48hr48hr
00Z,12Z00Z,12Z
06Z
36,12,6,4,2km108,36,12km27,9,3,1km
http://www.cefa.dri.edu/COFF/coffframe.htmlhttp://www.crseo.ucsb.edu/asr/mm5_forecasts.htmhttp://www.weather.nps.navy.mil/~dkmiller/MM5/http://weather.mhpcc.edu/
RMC/FSLRS
4 times/ dayvarious
Satellite obs
24-60hr
NA
03Z, 09Z, 15Z, 21Z
NA
12km, 4km
NA
http://laps.fsl.noaa.gov/usfs/usfs_home.html http://www.firelab.org/rsl/
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…the fire products?
• Special fire weather indices:– Haines Index;– Fosberg Fire Weather index;– Ventilation Index.
• US & Canadian Fire Danger Rating indices;
• Others….
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• Smoke emissions;• Smoke related indices:
– Ventilation index,– Dispersion indices;
• Smoke trajectories;• Aerosol & other chemical concentrations as
a function of time and space.• Other….
…. the smoke products?
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What models will FCAMMS use?• Mesoscale meteorological models:
– MM5– Others as needed.
• Fire models– NFDRS & CFDRS models– FARSITE/BURNUP (e.g., fire behavior models)
• Smoke models– EPM/Consume/FOFEM/CSEM – CALPUFF family– CMAQ– Hysplit & related trajectory models– SASEM– VSMOKE
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Your QuestionsYour Questions How do/will FCAMMS obtain critical data
such as fire activity and emissions data?
Who is invited/expected to participate? Are the FCAMMS operational or research or
some combination of both?
What are the costs if any to NFS or S&PF for the FCAMMS?
How long will the FCAMMS be around? What should the relationship be between
FCAMMS scientists and the field?
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How do/will FCAMMS obtain critical data such as fire
activity and emissions data?• Meteorological initial data come from
NCEP (NOAA)• Fire activity will need to come from:
– satellite observations; – regional data efforts; – State & local fire tracking programs.
• BlueSky emissions calculations.
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Your QuestionsYour Questions Who is invited/expected to
participate?Are the FCAMMS operational or research
or some combination of both?
What are the costs if any to NFS or S&PF for the FCAMMS?
How long will the FCAMMS be around?What should the relationship be
between FCAMMS scientists and the field?
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Conceptual structure for FCAMMS
Ring Meteorology Fire Smoke
Scientists & Technicians
Met modelers & atmos sci.
Fire modelers & scientists
Air Quality modelers & scientists
InformationSuppliers
GACCS & Fire Wx forecasters
FBO’s RPO’s, ? ?
Users Fire fighters
Fire fighters
Air QualityRegulators & public
Research National programs Local
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Who is invited/expected to participate?
• FCAMMS have both operational and research components.
• FCAMMS have attempted to identify key partners in:– Meteorological simulation;– Fire sciences;– Air Quality & Smoke Management.
• FCAMMS need partners at the FCAMMS need partners at the information supply & user levels! information supply & user levels!
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What are the costs if any to NFS or S&PF for the FCAMMS
• Clearly, research funds can only be used to demonstrate & test new concepts & products.
• Continuing routine operations will require support funding.
• Each FCAMMS will need to approach this issue.
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How long will FCAMMS be around?
• Funding through FY 05 appropriation is expected under the National Fire Plan.
• Do you you think FCAMMS should stay around?
• How can we work together to insure How can we work together to insure they stay?they stay?
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What should the relationship be between FCAMMS
scientists and the field? Ideally a working partnership between FCAMMS,
Fire & Air Quality specialists where all:
come to rely on products produced; identify needs for new and improved products; mutually support the activity providing information
suppliers & liaison with user communities.
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Who are the FCAMMS PI’s?
• Dr. Gary Achtemeier, USDA Forest Service, Southern Research Station, Athens, GA
• Dr. Warren Heilman, USDA Forest Service, North Central Research Station, East Lansing, MI
• Dr. WeiMin Hao, USDA Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station, Missoula ,MT
• Dr. Francis Fujioka, USDA Forest Service, Pacific Southwest Research Station, Riverside, CA
• Dr. Sue Ferguson, USDA Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station, Seattle, WA
• Dr. Karl Zeller, USDA Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station, Fort Collins, CO
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Questions on FCAMMS?
• Dr. Al Riebau, USDA FS R&DNational Program Leader Air [email protected]
• Dr. Doug Fox, CSU CIRAFireCAMMS National Project [email protected]
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• Web Page: http://www.ncrs.fs.fed.us/eamc/
• Dr. Warren Heilman, • Dr. Brian Potter, • Dr. Jay Charney,• Dr. Xindi Bian,• USDA Forest Service, North Central Research Station,
East Lansing ,MI
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Rocky Mountain Center
• Web Sites: http://laps.fsl.noaa.gov/usfs/usfs_home.html
http://www.firelab.org/rsl/
Dr. Karl Zeller & Dr. WeiMin Hao, • Rocky Mountain Research Station,
Ft. Collins, CO & Missoula, Mt.
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California & Nevada Smoke & Air Council
http://www.rfl.psw.fs.fed.us/met/index.htmlhttp://www.cefa.dri.edu/COFF/coffframe.htmlhttp://www.crseo.ucsb.edu/asr/mm5_forecasts.htmhttp://www.weather.nps.navy.mil/~dkmiller/MM5/http://weather.mhpcc.edu/ • Dr. Francis M. Fujioka & Dr. Tim Brown• PSW Forest Fire Laboratory Desert Research
Institute4955 Canyon Crest Drive University of NevadaRiverside, CA 92507-6099 Reno, NV
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NWRMC
• http://www.atmos.washington.edu/pnw_environ/• http://www.atmos.washington.edu/gcg/
smokeandfire/• Dr. Sue Ferguson• Dr. Susan O’Neill• Dr. Sim Larkin• Pacific Northwest Research Station
400 N 34th Street Suite 201Seattle WA 98103
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SHRMC
• http://shrmc.ggy.uga.edu/• Dr. Gary Achtemeier• Dr. Scott Goodrich• Dr. Yongqiang Liu • Southern Research Station
320 Green Street,Athens, GA 30602