Finding Federalism in the Philippines

Steven RoodPhilippine Country Representative, The Asia Foundation

Philippine Update Conference2-3 September, 2016

Australian National University

House of Representatives:What’s “Party” got to do with it?

Two MainParty Groupings

Election Results

May 1998

Congress Organized

July 1998LAKAS-NUCD-UMDP 110 39LAMMP 56 142

May 2010 July 2010*Lakas 105 89Liberal Party 45 73

May 2016 August 2016Liberal Party 115 35PDP-Laban 3 97

* By the time of the next elections (May 2013), LAKAS members were down to 27 and LP were up to 90.

OUTLINE

Evolution of the Debate 1986-2014Public Opinion on the issue: labileDutertismo, Populism, FederalismFederalism and the Bangsamoro

1986 Constitutional Commission

University of the Philippines draft enfranchised any region to be “autonomous”• Rejected by the Con Comm due to fear of

“fragmentation” Federalism overwhelmingly rejected So, “autonomy” was granted only to those regions

(Muslim Mindanao, Cordillera) which were lobbying

2005 Constitutional Commission

55 members but only 3 from Citizen’s Movement for Federal Philippines (Abueva, Lorenzana, Teves)

federalism: “to equate it at first to regional governance then to autonomous territories and eventually to the creation of federal states. … The former local governors and the business persons sitting in the ConComcompelled the compromise.”

“Federalism, its nuances and the other proposals may be clear to the ConCom members, political technocrats, the academe and old time proponents. The [405] AdComsorties found out that this was not the case with the ordinary Filipino and the leaders nearest to them – the barangay officials and the local executives.

Public Administration view:on Federalism

Former UP NCPAG dean Alex Brillantes: “Federalism is really, as I used to say a long time ago, the next logical step to the evolution”• “[o]ne major reason why we are where we are is

precisely because our local governments haven’t sufficiently been empowered.”

Ronald May: “the advantages claimed for federal over unitary systems read more like statements of faith than reasoned arguments.”• “there is little evidence that those espousing it

have referred to the literature on failed federalism in the second half on the twentieth century”

Recent Statements

• “Only 9% of the RDC initiated proposals find their way to the MTPIP or NEP. Ergo, for social inclusion, economic empowerment through the creation of another layer of political subdivision called regions with significant powers and countervailing forces.” Rep. Joey Salceda (Albay)

• Mindanao Business Conference “also expressed support to the proposed shift to a federal system of government.” (26 Aug 2016)

• Other businessmen express worries about more red tape, etc.

SWS Surveys of Constitutional Amendments

(2002-2006)

LEVEL OF KNOWLEDGE OF THE PHILIPPINE CONSTITUTION, MAY 2002 TO MAY 2005

Q. How would you describe your knowledge of the Philippine Constitution?

Extensive knowledge 3% 4% 8% 4%

Partial but sufficient knowledge 21 20 32 23

Little knowledge 60 54 43 44

Almost no knowledge 16 21 17 29

May 2002 Nov 2002 Jun 2003 May 2005

Q: Paano po ninyo ilalarawan ang inyong kaalaman tungkol sa Konstitusyon ng Pilipinas? (MALAWAK ANG KAALAMAN, BAHAGYA NGUNIT SAPAT ANG KAALAMAN, KAUNTING KAALAMAN, HALOS WALANG KAALAMAN)

OPINION ON WHETHER THERE ARE CONSTITUTIONAL PROVISIONS THAT NEED TO BE AMENDED, JUNE 1999 TO MAY 2005

Q. In your opinion, are there Constitutional provisions which need to be changed now or none? IF YES: Please identify the Constitutional matters you would want to have changed? What else? (MULTIPLE RESPONSE ALLOWED)

Yes 14% 21% 20% 30%

None 86 79 80 70

Jun 1999 Nov 2002 Jun 2003 May 2005

Q: Sa inyong palagay, may probisyon po ba ang ating Konstitusyon na dapat baguhin sa ngayon o wala? KUNG MAYROON: Pakitukoy po kung ano ang mga bagay-bagay na gusto ninyong mabago saKonstitusyon? Ano pa po? (MULTIPLE RESPONSE ALLOWED)

CONSTITUTIONAL PROVISIONS THAT NEED TO BE AMENDED, MAY 2005

Base: Total who said there are Constitutional provisions that need to be amended

Top 10 Answers Only

Corruption 2.0%Marami 1.9Pamamalakad sa gobyerno. Kahit 1.1

ano tungkol ditoPababaan ang mga presyo ng bilihin 1.0Ayaw nilang payagan ang divorce 1.0

dito sa Pilipinas. Dapat payaganBilihin—ibaba ang presyo 0.9Ang pagpapalakad ng gobyerno. Ang 0.6

karapatan ng mga mahihirapTungkol sa VAT o tax 0.6Pagtaas ng presyo ng bilihin 0.6Pababain ang presyo ng mga 0.6

pangunahing bilihinDon’t know/Can’t say 18

OPINION ON WHETHER TO MAINTAIN OR CHANGE THE PRESENT SYSTEM OF GOVERNMENT, MAY 28 – JUNE 14, 2003

In the present system of government, executive power and legislative power are separate. The first is under the President of the Philippines and the second is with Congress. All the executive departments are under the President. She/he is the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces, and appoints court judges, the commissioners of Comelec, Civil Service, and Audit, and other officials. All bills done by Congress need her/his approval to become law.

In the Parliamentary system on the other hand, a large part, if not all, of the present powers of the President would go to the head of the party in control of the legislature, called the Prime Minister. There are many kinds of parliamentary systems, depending on what powers remain with the president. For any of these kinds to happen, some provisions in the Constitution need to be changed.

Like the present system of government to continue 72%Like to shift to some kind of Parliamentary system 28%

PR1, Q63. Would you like THE PRESENT SYSTEM OF GOVERNMENT TO CONTINUE, or would you like TO SHIFT TO SOME KIND OF PARLIAMENTARY SYSTEM?

Probability Respondent 1

80

81

87

79

77

69

19

18

13

21

23

28

PREFERRED SYSTEM OF GOVERNMENT: PARLIAMENTARY OR PRESIDENTIAL FORM, PHILIPPINES, AUG 1994-SEP 2005

Aug 1994

Presidential Parliamentary

Note: Don’t know/Refused/Can’t say responses not shown.

Q: Alin po sa dalawang sistema ng gobyernong ito, ang presidensyal o parliyamentaryo, anginyong higit na nagugustuhan?

Sep 1995

Jun 1998

Mar 1999

Mar 2002

Sep 2005

AGREEMENT ON FEDERATING THE REGIONAL GOVERNMENTS, MAY 17-JUN 3, 2002

PR, Q104. In case there would be regional governments throughout the country, do you… (Strongly agree, Somewhat agree, Undecided if agree or disagree, Somewhat disagree, Strongly disagree)… that the system of government in the Philippines should be made FEDERAL, or don’t you know enough about the FEDERAL system?

Agree 20%Strongly agree 6Somewhat agree 14

Undecided if agree or disagree 20Disagree 20

Somewhat disagree 7Strongly disagree 13

* Net agree +1Don’t know enough about 40

the Federal system

* For greater precision, % Agree minus % Disagree are first computed before being rounded off.

AGREE 33% 30% 32% 28% 43%Strongly agree 11 11 10 8 16Somewhat agree 22 19 22 20 28

UNDECIDED 33 36 32 37 28

DISAGREE 27 26 26 30 26Somewhat disagree 14 17 14 15 12Strongly disagree 13 10 12 15 14

NET* +7 +4 +6 -2 +17

“THE SYSTEM OF GOVERNMENT SHOULD BE CHANGED TO FEDERAL AS SOON AS POSSIBLE”, BY AREA, JANUARY 2004

BAL.RP NCR LUZON VISAYAS MINDANAO

*NET equals %Agree minus %Disagree correctly roundedNote: Don’t Know and Refused figures are not shown.

Q46. Dapat gawin Federal ang sistema ng gobyerno sa lalong madalingpanahon. [LUBOS NA SUMASANG-AYON, MEDYO SUMASANG-AYON, HINDI TIYAK KUNG SUMASANG-AYON O HINDI, MEDYO HINDI SUMASANG-AYON, LUBOS NA HINDI SUMASANG-AYON, O HINDI SAPAT ANG KAALAMAN TUNGKOL DITO]

OPINION ON THE PROPOSAL TO CREATE REGIONAL GOVERNMENTS, PHILIPPINES, NOV 2002 TO MAR 2006

FOR NCR:At present, the highest local governments in Metro Manila are the city and municipal governments, whose power compared to the national government is very small. Thus some are proposing to create a regional government for Metro Manila, and then there would be elections for the officials who would administer and make laws for Metro Manila as a region. For you, would this proposal be ______ for our country?FOR OUTSIDE NCR:At present, the highest local government is that of the province; under it are the city and municipal governments. Since there are many provinces, the power of a provincial government compared to the national government is very small. Thus some are proposing to create a regional government for (R’s region) to replace the provincial governments. Therefore there would be elections for the officials of (R’s region) who would administer and make laws for the whole region. For you, would this proposal be _____ for our country?

Good 42% 50% 37% 39% 38% 41%Definitely good 15 12 12 12 13 12Probably good 27 39 25 27 24 29

Undecided 36 40 34 40 46 38Not good 22 10 28 20 16 20

Probably not good 12 7 13 11 8 13Definitely not good 10 3 15 9 8 8

20 40 9 19 22 21

Nov ‘02 Jun ‘03 May ‘05 Aug ‘05 Dec ‘05 Mar ’06

NET

OPINION ON REGIONAL GOVERNMENTS, BY AREA, NOVEMBER 2002 TO MARCH 2006

November 2002NET POSITIVE 20 7 21 9 37

June 2003NET 40 34 44 53 29

May 2005NET 19 -7 14 -1 20

August 2005NET 19 21 23 8 20

December 2005NET 32 26 33 3 16

March 2006NET 21 14 30 9 16

BALRP NCR LUZ VIS MIN

DUTERTE’S FEDERALISM BEGINS

11 September 2014 – Mindanao Council of Leaders --Bukidnon Governor Jose Maria Zubiri, former Cagayan de Oro Mayors Reuben Canoy & Vicente Emano, former Congressman Romeo Jalosjos from Zamboanga del Norte and former Davao del Norte Representative PantaleonAlvarez.

5 October 2014 – Cebu – Lito Osmena – Federal Movement for a Better Philippines

1 December 2014 “Once they open it (Constitution), we’ll start (a determined push for federalism),” Duterte at the Mindanao leaders’ summit on federalism.

POPULISM

an antagonism between the people and the elite, as well as the primacy of popular sovereignty

thin-centered ideologies do not provide answers to all major socio-political questions; compatible with other, more extensively developed political belief systems, such as socialism [“I am a leftist”]

a Manichaean discourse that assigns a binary moral dimension to political conflicts: “Us” and “Them” [victims versus druggies]

populist leader casts himself as an outsider who gains political prominence in association with new or newly competitive parties [read: PDP-Laban]

Urban Vote for Duterte (Putzel)

Populism

Federalism as populism: “Duterte said he’s more partial to the federal parliamentary style seen in Singapore and Malaysia. He adds, however, that the country can also look into adopting the federalism model used by the US or France.”

Dismantling the oligarchy (Roberto Ongpin) Human rights cannot be used as a shield (SONA) Free irrigation “Contractualization” Endo (business worries) Demonization of shabu “shrinks the brain” (drug

addicts are not human; all drug users are pushers)

Thank you

@StevenRoodPH