financing hydropower development in emerging power...
TRANSCRIPT
1
"Financing Hydropower Development in Emerging Power Markets - Lessons of Experience from Brazil“
Christian Biebuyck, Tractebel EGI, BelgiumMauricio Bähr, Tractebel Brasil, Brazil
Jan, 24th 2005
The World Bank GroupEnergy Lecture Series 2005
2
Financing hydropower in emerging countries
Summary Content
1. Plus and minus of hydropower
2. Key characteristics of hydropower assets vs. thermal
3. Major risks
4. Specifics of emerging countries relevant to hydropower
5. What expert private sponsors can do well
6. Room for PPP’s
7. How can WBG help
8. Conclusion
3
1a. Qualities of Hydropower
n Renewable and clean energy
n Very long asset lifetimeSlow spinning velocity, low temperature…
n Low O&M cost
n May produce cheap electricity (not always…)
n Potential mainly located in emerging countries
n Well-proven and simple technology
n No dependence on fuel prices
n Availability for immediate load changes
4
Qualities of Hydropower (ctd)
n Large range of project size, from micro to mega
n Construction largely related to civil worksz intensive domestic employment/materialz should ideally be paid in local currency (but…)
n Water storage can be multi-usagez drinking water, irrigation, river flow regulation…
n May attract secondary activitiesz tourism, sports…
n Often benefits remote and less developed regions
5
1b. Issues with Hydropowern May lead to (variable) population displacementn Reservoirs change landscape (better or worse)n May flood agricultural or cattle landn Possible impact on wildlifen Possible cross-border issues (river flow changes)n Strong opposition by some NGO’sn Not entirely predictable/dependable energy
z rainfall (ST and LT), possibly other prioritiesn Often far away from consumer centresn Sensitivity to interest rates
6
2. Characteristics of Hydropower Assets
35-4020-25?up to 100Useful lifetime (y)
3-423-5Construction time (y)
2-31-22-5Development time (y)
859025-95Load Factor (%) (base)
1100-1300500-600700-2000Specific inv. Cost
(USD/installed kW)
COALCCGTHYDROTypical ranges for power plants / kind
7
Characteristics of Hydropower Assets (ctd)
49
8
19
22
44
3
30.5
10.5
34.5
2
0
32.5
16%7%5%O&M (ex-fuel)
Total cost of MWh
39%69%Fuel
45%24%95%Capital
COAL (US)CCGT (US)HYDROTypical Cost Structure
(USD/MWh)
8
Typical kWh Cost Structure (base load)
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
hydro CCGT coal
capitalfuelO&M
9
Characteristics of Hydropower Assets (ctd)
Assumptions behind previous table:n Specific investment cost for hydro = 1,000 $/kWn Base load factor: 50% (hydro), 85% (thermal)n WACC: 10%n Amortization: 40 y (H), 20 y (CCGT), 25 y (coal)n Efficiency: 55% (CCGT), 38% (coal)n Gas price: 5 $/MMBTUn Coal price: 2.1 $/MMBTU (50 $/T)n No water rights considered for hydron No CO2 cost/benefit considered
10
Characteristics of Hydropower Assets (ctd)
n Long development time + construction time
n High variability of development/construction cost
⇒ higher contingency provisions
⇒ lower certainty in return forecast
n May add more capacity than energy
z depends on the kind of plant
z run-of-the-river vs. reservoir
n Production cost heavily weighted on
z capital cost
z fixed cost
11
Characteristics of Hydropower Assets (ctd)
n Wide range of specific construction cost
z depends mostly on site characteristics and geology
z tailor-made
z small size ⇒ higher specific cost
n If no fixed price turnkey EPC contract (difficult)
z impact on project financing
z track record of significant cost and time overruns
n Amortization
z over a long time, if allowed by concession structure…
z on a relatively high basis
12
Key Parameters for Hydropower Output Price
n Total Investment Cost
z development cost highly unpredictable
z sensitive to environmental cost
z interest during construction can be significant
n Rainfall
z volume x head
z regularity (over year and LT) ⇒ load factor
n Financial cost
n Concession terms (amortization time, water rights…)
13
$
y
amortization
debt
equity
water rights
40
water rights
10
taxes
taxes
equity
investment
Hydropower – Schematic Cost Structure Profile Over Time
0-5-7
14
Hydropower – Typical Cashflow Allocation
(300)
(200)
(100)
-
100
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 ....upto xx
Years
Mil
lion
$
O&M Water rights Taxes Financing Dividends Civil works Equipment Engineering Environmental
15
3. Major Risks
n Development/construction cost overrun
z geological “surprises” may require costly cure/changes
z social environmental impact, NGO’s actions
z time is of the essence (IDC)
z hydropower development/construction more difficult to keep within budget/timetable and under control
n Rainfall
z available reliable historical data = key to optimal design
z climate and predictability (el Niño…)
z distribution of water flow over time (ST and LT)
16
Major Risks (ctd)
n Financial
z interest rates
z foreign exchange
n Regulatory
z lack of completeness and/or clarity
z instability
n Market
z hedging instruments for contractual supply obligation
n Damage to corporate image by biased public actions
17
4. Emerging Countries – Specific Advantages
n Most undeveloped hydro potential is there
n Often lower population density on potential sites
n Lower labour cost while heavy relative weight of civil works in construction
n Equipment can sometimes be manufactured locally
n Hydropower projects improve local infrastructure
n Usually positive repercussions for local community more than offset negatives
18
Emerging Countries – Specific Hurdles
n Access to financing, currency mismatchn High cost of financing, enhanced by high proportion of
capital cost in overall costn Often lack of electricity market sophistication n Cost of kWh to end-consumer must be affordablen Permitting may face strong bureaucracyn Strong opposition/lobbying by some NGO’sn Lack of access infrastructure ⇒ construction difficultyn Regulatory risk enhanced by long pay-back timen International arbitration often denied or opposed
19
5. What Expert Private Sponsors Can Do Well
n Efficient development/construction management
z within budget
z within timetable
z technical and economic optimisation
n Secure funding
n Efficient operation and maintenance
n Commercial expertise
20
6. Room for PPP’s: Role of Private Sponsor
n Bring best management practice
n Bring up-to-date technical expertise
n Bring commercial and free market expertise
n Secure funding
n Commit to minimal and acceptable environmental impact
n Commit to fair treatment of displaced population
21
Room for PPP’s: Role of Government
n Secure timely granting of licenses and permits
n Make available existing historical data
n Facilitate resettlement of displaced population
n Set rules for use of water and abide by them
n Set fair and balanced regulatory framework
n No undue interference with market
n Enforce rule of law
n Limit unjustified actions by NGO’s
n Favor development of domestic investment funds
22
7. How Can WBG Help? Be a Partner
n Reduce risks
z support to rule of law, international arbitration
z support to fair and balanced regulatory framework
z help secure government compliance with commitments
z educate public opinion/NGO’s to benefits of hydropower
n Help secure fair and balanced environmental standards
z sponsor fair assessment of previous environment
z sponsor fair and balanced agreement on impact mitigation plan
z be “guarantor” of implementation
z be “protector” against excessive opposition actions
23
How Can WBG Help? Be a Partner
n Participate to funding, umbrella for commercial lenders
n Help develop domestic funding in local currency?
n Innovative instruments to reduce long pay-back time?
n Innovative instruments to mitigate currency gap?
n LT: support historical data collection in emerging countries
24
8. Conclusion: GREAT, BUT…n Main challenges:
z make it cheap enough by lowering financial cost
z make it acceptable to/accepted by public opinion/NGO’s
z long term regulatory stability and FOREX hedging
n Several key paradoxes must be worked out
z main price component = financial vs. high cost of funding in emerging countries
z abundant and clean vs. opposition by “public opinion”
z LT regulatory stability need vs. ST political horizon
z LT financing need vs. ST pricing predictability
25
Case Study – Tractebel Experience in Brazil
1. Initial motivation to invest
2. Investments: Track record of Tractebel in Brazil
3. Cana Brava hydropower plant
4. New Regulatory framework
5. Major Risks
6. Perspectives / challenges
26
1. Initial motivation to invest
2. Investments: Track record of Tractebel in Brazil
3. Cana Brava hydropower plant
4. New Regulatory framework
5. Major Risks
6. Perspectives / challenges
27
• Brazilian electricity market growth perspectives
• Expected Free Market to sell electricity
• Improvement of macro-economic conditions
• Regulatory framework allowing private investors
• Tractebel expertise
1. Initial motivation to invest in Brazil
28
1. Initial motivation to invest
2. Investments: Track record of Tractebel in Brazil
3. Cana Brava hydropower plant
4. New Regulatory framework
5. Major Risks
6. Perspectives / challenges
29
2. Tractebel’s Investment in BrazilThe Time Line of the electricity sector
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Jun
Feb
RevitalizationCommittee
Elections
Oct
Rationing
ON
S –
Nat
iona
l Ope
rato
rM
AE
-W
hosa
lem
arke
t
1995
–E
lect
ricity
Sec
tor r
eest
ruct
urin
g–
FH
C19
96 –
Cre
atio
n of
Ane
el(R
egul
ator
y ag
ency
)19
97 –
Firs
t Hyr
doP
lant
con
cess
ion
for
IPP
New ModelProposalBy MME
New Modelimplemented
Adjusts
Jul
Mar
Over 12.000 MW of hydro plants concessions awarded
PrivatizationDistribution~80% / Generation~20%
Elections
Oct
30
The Time LineTractebel´s experience in Brazil
PrivatizationDistribution~80% / Generation~20%
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Jun
Feb
RevitalizationCommittee
Elections
Oct
Rationing
ON
S –
Nat
iona
l Ope
rato
rM
AE
-W
hosa
lem
arke
t
1995
–E
lect
ricity
Sec
tor
rees
truc
turin
g–
FH
C19
96 –
Cre
atio
n of
Ane
el(R
egul
ator
y ag
ency
)19
97 –
Firs
t Hyr
doP
lant
con
cess
ion
for
IPP
New ModelProposalBy MME
New Modelimplemented
Adjusts
Jul
Mar
Over 12.000 MW of hydro plants concessions awarded
PrivatizationDistribution~80% / Generation~20%
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Jun
Feb
RevitalizationCommittee
Elections
Oct
Rationing
ON
S –
Nat
iona
l Ope
rato
rM
AE
-W
hosa
lem
arke
t
1995
–E
lect
ricity
Sec
tor
rees
truc
turin
g–
FH
C19
96 –
Cre
atio
n of
Ane
el(R
egul
ator
y ag
ency
)19
97 –
Firs
t Hyr
doP
lant
con
cess
ion
for
IPP
New ModelProposalBy MME
New Modelimplemented
Adjusts
Jul
Mar
Over 12.000 MW of hydro plants concessions awarded
ConcessionSão Salvador241MW
ConcessionEstreito1,087MW (30%)COD of ITA
1,450MW
COD of Lages28MW
COD of Machadinho1,140MW
COD of William Arjonaon Gas
COD of Cana Brava450MW
Tractebel5,896 MW
~8% of Brazil
Concession ofCana Brava450MW
Acquisition of GerasulToday Tractebel Energia3,719MW
31
Including Itaipu
Generation94,772 MW*
Transmission79,935km*
Distribution383,657 GWh*
Industrial 46%Residential 24%Commercial 15%Others 15%
Final Consumption322,336 GWh*
20% Private80% State Owned
20% Private80% State Owned
11% Private89% State Owned
11% Private89% State Owned
70% Private30% State owned
70% Private30% State owned
Brazil Electricity Market Structure and Players
* Preliminary numbers for 2004 year
32
Tractebel: Expansion in Brazil
Not considering Import parcel of 305MW started on year 2000
-
1.500
3.000
4.500
6.000
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
MW
inst
alle
d
Acquis itio n Gera s ul3 . 7 19 M W
William Arjo na8 0 - 19 0 M W
ITA9 0 1 - 112 7 M W
Machadinho - 3 8 2 M WCana Brava - 4 5 0 M W
Lages2 8 M W
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 20033.719 3.799 4.700 4.966 5.868 5.896
2,2% 26,4% 33,5% 57,8% 58,5%2,2% 23,7% 5,7% 18,2% 0,5%Annual Growth
Installed Capacity (MW)Accumulated Growth
Year
33
1. Initial motivation to invest
2. Investments: Track record of Tractebel in Brazil
3. Cana Brava hydropower plant
4. New Regulatory framework
5. Major Risks
6. Perspectives / challenges
34
3. Cana Brava hydropower plant
Ø Installed capacity: 450 MW Ø Assured energy: 273.5 MWavgØ Reservoir area: 139 Km2
Ø TIC: USD 400 millionØ 2,000 jobs during construction
35
Plant LocationUHE Cana Brava
Barragem da UHESerra da Mesa
Cana Brava Hydro Power Plant
36
Cana Brava: Main characteristics• Main milestones
Ø Apr/98 – Concession of CanaBrava
Ø May/99 – notice to proceed
Ø Apr/02 – Commercial operation
• Concession period: 35 years
• At the end: Concession can be extended; or devolved to the government with reimbursement of the non-depreciated assets
• Positive impacts:
Ø Favorable hydrological conditions
Ø Strong EPC contract
Ø First “project financing” closed in the electricity sector (During construction -> BNDES: May/99; IADB: Dec/00)
Ø Almost 100% costs in BRL
Ø Anticipation COD (5 months)
• Main concerns:
Ø Currency mismatch (financing in USD)
Ø Commercial risk
Ø Environmental issues
37
Cana Brava structure
BNDES
IADB
Fortis Bank
ANZ
DrKW
CEM
Tractebel Energia
Tractebel Energia
CNO, AG, Voith-siemens
Insurance co’s
Tractebel Energia
Operator
EPC
Main off taker Aneel
Concession
70%
DEBT
Equity 30%
38
Financing structure - Main characteristicsCana Brava Hydro Power Plant
IDB Loan spread reduces 0.25% after completion + 0.25% 2yrs after completion
Main Characteristics Equity BNDES IDB A-Loan IDB B-Loan
Amount (USD Million) 107.8 105.9 67.2 80.6
Interest rate - TJLP+4% Libor+4.375% Libor+4%
Amortization period (years) - 10 12 9
First amortization - 15/Aug/2003 15/nov/03 15/nov/03
Last amortization - 15/Apr/2013 15/May/2015 15/nov/12
Amortization - Semi-annually Quarterly Quarterly
39
Population involved and Area of the Reservoir
Source: IBGE, Census 2000 - IBGE is the Brazilian institute of Geography and Statistics
258
4
103
151
FamiliesCities Area (km2)Population
Cities
124,47
22,29
41,88
60,30
Flooded
1,9
0,2
3,7
1,6
( % )
875
8
338
529
Involved
1,111.565,646.460TOTAL
1,31.7083.702Colinas do Sul
0,66.9549.150Cavalcante
2,12.86133.608 Minaçu
( % )Total2000
Cana Brava Hydro Power Plant
40
Some of Extraordinary Social Actions Implemented
- School Materials for public schools
- “Vaga-lume” project - Adults education
- Musical Instruments, TV sets, VCRs and Sound Systems for schools in Minaçu
- Minaçu’s Sewage Treatment Station & System for around 95.000 inhabitants
- Computer equipment for schools in Minaçu and Cavalcante
- “Lar Menino Jesus” - children day care center in Minaçu
- School bus for the families in Limoeiro, Vila Vermelho and Rocinha
- Construction of the rural school in Cavalcantecity
EducationWorks
Cana Brava Hydro Power Plant
Improvement of Minaçu’s airport and runway
Artificial Beach Minaçu’s Sewage Treatment Station & System
41
Future Projects: Social agreement
Present situation: The obligation criteria for social and environmental issues are
not clear and the involved parties (Ministries, NGO´s, MP, society and others)
have different requests.
Proposal: Agreement between: Federal and State Government, municipalities,
entrepreneurs, Civil House, MP and society to pre-define and formalize the
social / environmental objectives of the project.
Main Objectives:
1. Investors, government and society work in cooperation with more efficiency in order to increase region's HDI
2. Reduce conflicts
3. Create a permanent and official open channel
4. Reduce risks of costs overrun
42
1. Initial motivation to invest
2. Investments: Track record of Tractebel in Brazil
3. Cana Brava hydropower plant
4. New Regulatory framework
5. Major Risks
6. Perspectives / challenges
43
• July 2003 – MME issued a proposal for a new regulatory framework
• From July to September 2003 – Interaction between private and state owned companies with government
• December 2003 – The government officially issued a “MP - MedidaProvisória” (Provisory law)
• From Dec/03 to Mar/04 – Amendments on the MP made by players and congressmen
• March 2004 – The government finally approved the new model through
the Laws 10.848 and 10.847
4. New regulatory framework - timeline
44
• Distco’s must purchase 100% of their energy through centralized auctions (Pool)
• Market for generators were segmented between existing energy andnew energy1
• New concessions for hydro plants will be awarded in a lowest tariff scheme with long term standard PPA and Previous environmental license issued
• Concessions already awarded in the previous auction scheme (Highest yearly installments - UBP) might be compensated in the auctions (Details still need adjustments)
New regulatory framework – Main points
1 Power plants with COD after Jan/00 and uncontracted energy
45
Projects with different investment cost were equalized through UBP payments (Yearly installments)
Previous auction scheme - UBP concept
UBP and Investment
1.100
1.300
1.500
1.700
1.900
2.100
2.300
2.500
Ser
ra d
o F
acão
Cou
. Mag
alhã
es
Ped
. do
Cav
alo
C. F
. St.
Cla
ra
Sal
to P
ilão
Tra
íra
II
São
Sal
vado
r
San
ta Is
abel
Bau
I
Mon
jolin
ho
C. S
Joã
o/C
ach.
Pei
xe A
ngic
al
Cor
umbá
III
Sim
plíc
io
C. C
açu
B.C
oq.
Sal
to
Tra
íra
II
Sto
R. V
erdi
nho
São
Dom
ingo
s
Olh
o D
'águ
a
Est
reito
Inve
stm
ent
(Th
ou
san
d U
SD
) / M
Wm
ed
-
2,00
4,00
6,00
8,00
10,00
12,00
14,00
16,00
UB
P (U
SD
) / M
Wh
Investment: Source Eletrobras UBP
July/2002Low Competitiveness
2001
46
Electricity sector – New modelConclusions
Main concerns• The perspective of selling energy freely
to selected distributors has changed to a regulated environment (Distribution companies credit risk)
• Independence of regulator
• Segmentation of the electricity auction in “new energy” and “existing energy”
• Mismatch between expenses and revenues
• The concessions already granted (with concession fee – UBP payment) will have to compete against new projects without UBP
Positive impacts
• Long term planning
• Long term PPA´s might facilitate financing before NTP
• End of self-dealing with distribution companies may induce IPP investments
• New power plants concessions awarded with environmental licenses issued will reduce risks
47
1. Initial motivation to invest
2. Investments: Track record of Tractebel in Brazil
3. Cana Brava hydropower plant
4. New Regulatory framework
5. Major Risks
6. Perspectives / challenges
48
• Rainfall – MRE mechanism mitigates that risk
• Construction – Obtaining EPC turnkey contract for construction is key to appropriate risk allocation
• Social / environmental - In order to establish the needs for investments on social / environmental aspects the institutions involved should specify in advance the correct scope to be covered
• Regulatory framework - The stability of a regulatory framework is key for attracting the investors and creating a competitive environment
5. Hydro plants in BrazilWhat are the major risks?
49
• Timing of financial close
• Legal costs
• Sponsor guarantees
• Currency mismatch
• Environmental compliance
Financing Related issues
50
1. Initial motivation to invest
2. Investments: Track record of Tractebel in Brazil
3. Cana Brava hydropower plant
4. New Regulatory framework
5. Major Risks
6. Perspectives / challenges
51
6. PerspectivesElectricity sector: Supply x demand
20.000
30.000
40.000
50.000
60.000
70.000
80.000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
MW
avg
Offer Reference scenario(5.2% a.a.)
High scenario(6.2% a.a.)
52
PerspectivesElectricity sector: Supply
From the 12.000 MW of concessions awarded since 1997:
Works started35%
Started operation22%
Works not started43%
53
Electricity sector: Expansion
Transmission16%
Generation50%
Distribution34%
Annual investment: US$ 5.7 billion
Annual expansion estimated: 3.000 MW
54
Generation expansion
u Brazil uses only 24% of the potential available of hydroelectric energy while in developed countries the average is about 70%
u Brazil generation is traditionally based on hydro power plants, representing about 91% of the total generation
55
Generation expansionHydro plants to be auctioned in 2005
17 Hydro plantsTotal Power: 2.829 MW
56
Tractebel perspectiveProjects under development
Estreito 1,087MWSão Salvador 241MW• Investment: BRL 600 million• Reservoir: 77,4 km2
• Previous environmental license issued
• Investment: BRL 2,2 billion• Reservoir: 194 km2
Partners30%Tractebel EGI
4,44%Camargo Correa 16,48%BHP Billiton19,08%ALCOA30%CVRD
Partners30%Tractebel EGI
4,44%Camargo Correa 16,48%BHP Billiton19,08%ALCOA30%CVRD
57
Challenges
• New regulatory framework consolidation and stability –Transition phase needed
• Appropriate treatment of segmentation between ”new energy” and ”old energy”
• Competitiveness of hydro concessions awarded in the previous model (UBP)
• Auctions transparency
• Social agreement
• Maintenance of the current indexation (IGP-M)
58
Wrap Up
n Any comments, questions, contributions from audience ?
The World Bank GroupEnergy Lecture Series 2005