financial outlook for dairy - scott brown
DESCRIPTION
Scott Brown gave this presentation as part of the November 10, 2008 DAIReXNET Webinar on the Financial Outlook for the Dairy Industry.TRANSCRIPT
Volatility and Uncertainty to Remain In the Near Term
General Economic Outlook Becoming Worse U.S. Rest of World
US Consumer’s Becoming More Cautious At a Time US Dairy Producers Need More Demand
Major Equity Drain Could Have Major Effects on Food Spending
Where Do Oil Prices Move From Here?
U.S. Income Growth
Global Insight, September 2008
Daily Livestock Report, October 7, 2008
Daily Livestock Report, October 7, 2008
Corn Prices Are Declining
Other Feed Prices Declining
Milk Futures Have Also Moved Lower
Two Possible Scenarios for 2009
Milk prices move substantially lower for the first half of 2009
The industry feels substantial pain that results in a larger supply adjustment
Allows for a better outlook for in the second half of the year All milk prices below $15.50 per cwt.
Milk prices tend to level at around $17 in the first half of 2009
Continued pain for much of the year Requires an exogenous shock to get milk prices higher
A possibility: Corn plantings down next spring and oil prices rise next summer
U.S. Dairy Cows
U.S. Dairy Cows
U.S. Milk Yields
U.S. Milk Production
2008 189.6 billion pounds
Cheese Prices
Butter Prices
Nonfat Dry Prices
Retail Dairy Prices
Dairy Exports
Federal Order Class Prices
U.S. All Milk Price
Wisconsin Dairy Operating Costs
Milk Income Loss Contract (MILC) Program
October 2008 through August 2012 45% of the price difference 2.985 million pound cap
January 2008 through August 2012 Dairy feed ration cost adjustment $7.35 Calculate the trigger price as 45% of the percentage
dairy feed ration exceeds $7.35
Revert to pre-2008 farm bill levels after August 2012
34% of the price difference 2.4 million pound cap Dairy feed ration cost adjustment increases to $9.50
MILC Trigger Calculation
Effect of the CWT Program on the Effect of the CWT Program on the US All Milk Price *US All Milk Price *
* - Only includes 2008 CWT export assistance as of 10/16/2008
Year 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 *
US All Milk Price
$12.55 $16.13 $15.19 $12.90 $19.13 $19.08
CWT Herd Retirement Impact
$0.05 $0.16 $0.44 $0.55 $0.62 $0.57
CWT Export Assistance Impact
NA $0.01 $0.01 $0.09 $0.16 $0.14
TOTAL CWT Impact
$0.05 $0.17 $0.45 $0.64 $0.77 $0.71
* - Includes export assistance through 10/16/2008
My Forecast
2007 2008 2009
Milk Cows 9,153 9,265 9,216
(thou. head)
Milk Production 185.6 189.6 190.9
(bill. pounds)
All Milk Price 19.13 18.45 17.10
(dollars per cwt.)
Class III Price 18.04 17.55 16.20
(dollars per cwt.)
Class IV Price 18.36 15.20 13.80
(dollars per cwt.)
Summary
The first six to nine months of 2009 will be some of the toughest months dairy producers have faced in this decade
Domestic demand anemic World demand for US dairy products will be less
Increasing supplies from competitors Slowing demand in Asian countries
Programs available to help in 2009 Dairy price support program MILC program CWT
Things to watch in 2009 Corn plantings Oil prices General economy
QUESTIONS