financial markets in 2012 by gary trennepohl
DESCRIPTION
Gary Trennepohl presents "Financial Markets in 2012" during the annual 2012 Reynolds Business Journalism Seminars, hosted by the Donald W. Reynolds National Center for Business Journalism. For more information about free training for business journalists, please visit businessjournalism.org.TRANSCRIPT
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Financial Markets in 2012:
Where are the Stories?
Strictly Financials
Jan. 5, 2012
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Donald W. Reynolds National Center For Business Journalism At Arizona State University
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Gary Trennepohl, Ph.D. ONEOK Chair and President’s Council Professor of
Finance Oklahoma State University Trustee, Oklahoma Teachers Retirement System Member, OSU Foundation Investment Committee
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Major Economic Themes for 2012 I. Survival of the “Euro” and the
Eurozone Defaults by Greece, Italy, Portugal or Spain? The impact on international trade
II. The U.S. Budget and the 2012 election The budget and the budget deficit Entitlement programs
Social Security and Medicare III. Issues surrounding Pension Funds
Public workers’ pensions State budgets and public pensions
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I. WILL THE EURO SURVIVE?
The Economist, Nov. 26, 2011, asks: “Is this Really the End? Unless Germany and the ECB move quickly, the single currency’s collapse is looming.”
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A. An Historical Perspective About Exchange Rates is Useful
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Exchange Rates 1875 to 1944 The “Gold Standard” system (1875 to 1914)
Currencies were pegged to gold and exchange rates were easily determined: If £1 = 1 oz of gold and 1$ = ½ oz of gold,
the $/£ exchange rate was $2 = 1£ (1/½ = 2).
But this system creates lots of internal problems in an economy.
The Interwar Period (1915 -1944) Gold standard abandoned, trade wars, Great
Depression and bank failuresStrictly Financials 7
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Exchange Rates 1945 to Present “Bretton Woods System” (1945 to 1972) Exchange rates were fixed and based on the
US $ ($35 = 1 oz of gold). Became economically unsustainable in late
1960’s because of the growth of world trade.
“Flexible Exchange Rate” system (1973 to present) Major trading currencies allowed to float in
value against each other Market forces of supply and demand
determine exchange rates.Strictly Financials 8
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Factors Affecting Exchange Rates Interest rates and expected inflation
Higher real interest rates (interest rate – inflation) attract buyers for dollars and vice versa.
Income levels (wealthy vs. poor states) Government controls
Foreign exchange barriers Trade barriers and tariffs Central banks buying/selling of currency
Expectations Captured by trading in foreign exchange
futuresStrictly Financials 9
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B. What about the EuroAnd the European Union?
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The European Union Created by the Maastrict Treaty in 1991 Introduced the Euro (€) in 1999 at a
value of $1.18 per €1. 16 countries now use the €
Austria, Belgium, Cyprus, France, Finland, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Kosovo, Luxemborg, Malta, Netherlands, Portugal, Solvenia, Spain.
Denmark, Sweden, and the U.K. do not use the € but are part of the European Union.
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Why have a Monetary Union? Advantages:
Reduces costs (dramatically) Eliminates exchange rate uncertainty Promotes trade and political cooperation
Disadvantages: Loss of monetary independence and control Tensions between “rich” and “poor” states Difficulties in maintaining unified control
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Key Criteria for Membership Ratio of Budgetary Deficit to GDP ≤ 3%
U.S. is 10.64% in 2011 budget EU is 6.3% in 2010
Ratio of Gross Public Debt to GDP ≤ 60%
U.S. is 94.27% in 2010 EU is 74.0% in 2010
But, most members violate these measures, and have done so through time.
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So, What’s the Problem? Sovereign default is possible
Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Spain may be unable to repay or refund debt as it comes due.
But, because most of the debt is held by European banks, the EU set up a bail out fund for Greece and Ireland (so far).
What impact will the fear of a debt crisis in Europe have on the international banking system and interest rates?
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Story Possibilities
1. What impact will death of the Euro have on businesses in your city?
2. Do banks/pension funds/investors in your city or state hold foreign bonds?
3. Do companies in your area do business with Greece, Portugal, Ireland or Spain? Strictly Financials 16
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U.S. Companies And Currency Exchange Rates
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Importers, Exporters And Exchange Rates U.S. exporters
Benefit from a weak dollar (U.S. wheat becomes cheaper to Russians).
Hurt by a strong dollar U.S. importers
Benefit from a strong dollar (BMWs can go down in price for U.S. buyers)
Hurt by a weak dollar
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U.S. Multinationals That Own Businesses Abroad It is estimated that 40% of the earnings
from the S&P 500 companies are derived from foreign operations.
The impact of the dollar’s value on their operations becomes much more difficult to measure.
However, each year on their financial statements, their gain/loss on foreign currency exchange is booked in the equity section of the balance sheet.
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Story Ideas
1. How are businesses in your city impacted by the value of the $?
2. What is the impact of the $’s value on the global recovery?
3. Will a “weak dollar” policy help or hurt industries in your area?
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The U.S. Budget Crisis and 2012 Election
1. The U.S. Budget Deficit: Is it too much spending or too little tax revenue?
2. The Budget and Entitlement Programs.
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Look for Congress to Address Entitlement Spending to Make Progress on the Budget Deficit
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Will Social Security Be Your Security?
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Social Security and Medicare: The Looming Political Crisis Social Security (taxes paid on income
up to $110,100 in 2012) Provides retirement benefits for a worker and his/her
spouse to the second death Provides disability benefits to injured workers
regardless of age Provides survivor benefits to widows and eligible
children to age 19 (or 22).
Medicare (tax paid on total income) Provides hospital insurance at age 65 and above Don’t forget to register before you turn 65!
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FAQs Regarding the SSA How much can I earn and still receive
benefits? After reaching full retirement age (FRA), your SS
benefits will not be reduced, but… If your income is over $44,000 (joint) 85% of benefits
will be taxable.
At what age should I start taking Soc Sec benefits – 62 years, 66 years, 70 years?
Also, keep in mind that SSA and Medicare are independent decisions. You have to sign up for Medicare at 65 but you don’t have to start drawing SS benefits.
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Social Security Myth 1 “There’s a lockbox that keeps and
invests the FICA taxes you pay.” No, not really
Taxes paid by current workers are used to pay the benefits of current retirees. You don’t have an individual account with your money in it, just a ledger balance at the SSA.
Surpluses are deposited in the “Social Security Trust Fund,” which then buys non-marketable U.S. Government bonds. In reality, this goes directly to fund the Federal deficit.
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Current Status of Social Security Trust Fund (from the 2011 Social
Security Trustees Report)
In 2010, Social Security costs exceeded income from payroll taxes for the first time
Recession reduced payrolls Baby boomers started to retire (we already know this
– they’ve been around for 65 years)
After 2012-14, costs will exceed income so interest payments from trust fund will be needed to fund payments.
After 2022, taxes and interest will be insufficient so the trust fund corpus will have to be used to fund benefits.
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What About the Trust Fund? In 2036 the trust fund will be exhausted
But, yearly payroll taxes could still pay about 75% of current benefits.
Assuming no new legislation, the “replacement rate” (Social Security benefits/pre-retirement earnings) would drop from 41% today to 36% in 2036 to 29% in 2037.
If payroll taxes immediately were raised by 1.92% (ie. .96% each for worker and employer), the 41% benefit level could be maintained to 2086.
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Social Security Myth 2 “I don’t count on Social Security
because it will be broke when I retire.” Not True. This is a legal obligation of the U.S.
Government, which it really cannot choose not to pay.
Do you really think the government can renege on its promise to pay your benefits that you have already paid for?
What if your employer decided it was not going to pay your retirement benefits that you had been promised?
A politically explosive issue
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What Should Congress Do?
Increase SS retirement age? Originally set at 65 in 1935, but life expectancy has
dramatically increased.
Increase income tax on SS benefits? Currently, if your taxable income exceeds $44,000
(joint), 85% of SS benefits become taxable.
Uncap the wage level for payroll taxes (set at $110,100 for 2012)?
Medicare taxes currently are uncapped
Increase the payroll tax? By 1.96% total as shown earlier
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What About Medicare And New Healthcare Legislation? The real economic issue is spending on
healthcare. Future Social Security benefits/costs can
be mathematically determined so it becomes a political problem to solve; medical costs cannot be estimated with any accuracy.
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Information about Social Security
Center for Retirement Research at Boston College. http://crr.bc.edu/
List of publications at: http://crr.bc.edu/social_security/social%2520security%3bbriefs.html
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Story Ideas
1. Do your readers believe that Social Security will pay them retirement benefits?
2. Do they favor changes to the system that will insure its survival – (1) increase retirement age, (2) increase taxes, (3) increase taxable wage base?
3. How does Social Security fit in your retirement planning? Strictly Financials 38
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Will the Coming Crisis In Public Pension Plans Affect Your Community?
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Some Recent Headlines About Public Pension Plans
“Padded Pensions Add to New York Fiscal Woes”
Walsh and Schoenfeld, NY Times, May 21, 2010. “Studies Show Grim Outlook for Public Plans”
Burr, Pension & Investments, Oct. 12, 2010. “Can the Illinois Pension Catastrophe be
Stopped?” Novy-Marx, and Rauh, Chicago Tribune, Aug 13,
2010. “State Pension Plans Go Broke as Payrolls
Expand” Mysak, Bloomberg Opinion, Jun 10, 2010.
“Pension Woes May Deepen Financial Crisis for States
Keith, NRP News, Mar 21, 2010.
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Grabbing Headlines* “After 30 years of service, a police officer in
California can retire at 90% of his final compensation. The monthly benefit will increase each year by a 2% cola.”
An officer earning $150,000/year will retire earning $140,000/year for the rest of his/her life, for a total benefit of $5.9 million (to age 85).
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*”Taming a Whale Lurking in Pension Financing”, Bruce DealPensions and Investments, August 9, 2010 , p 12.
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States Making Changes to Public Employee Pension Plans – 2009: (The Pew Center on the States)
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States Making Changes to Public Employee Pension Plans - 2010
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Two Principal Types Of Pension Plans
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Defined Benefit Plans Employer assumes obligation to pay
retirement benefits defined by formula. Retirement benefits determined by a
calculation: eg. = (years service*2%*avg. 3 yr highest
salary) Most public plans are of this type. Market risk is carried by the state sponsor and
the investments are professionally managed. No asset available to transfer to heirs. $4,357 billion of assets in DB plans (as of Sept 30,
2009)Strictly Financials 45
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Defined Contribution Plan Employer only assumes obligation to pay
yearly % of salary (eg. 10%) into employee selected investment vehicle (think 401-k).
Individual bears the market risk and is responsible for selecting investment vehicles.
Retirement benefits determined by performance of investment choices.
Most newer corporate plans are of this type. Value of assets becomes part of estate that
can be transferred to heirs $1,720 billion of assets in DC plans (as of Sept 30,
2009) Strictly Financials 46
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Ten Largest Defined Benefit Funds*
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$0 $50 $100 $150 $200 $250
Calif. Public Emp.Calif. State Teachers
NY State CommonFla. State Board
NY City RetirementTexas Teachers
Gen. MotorsNY State Teachers
Wisc. Investment Brd.State of New Jersey
Total Assets in Billions of $
* as of Sept. 30, 2009* from Pensions&Investments, Dec 28 and Feb. 8, 2010)
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Typical Pension Plan Sponsors State or municipal employee plans
(almost all are defined benefit plans): Teachers (K-12, community colleges, universities) State employees Firefighters and Police Judges
Local union plans (usually defined benefit plans)
Corporate plans (most have converted to defined contribution plans)
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Measuring Pension Plan Health Actuaries can project future plan liabilities and
income – key factors are: Workforce demographics Rate of return assumptions Mortality rates – and we are living longer Size of investment portfolio COLAs – “cost of living allowances (eg. 2% a year)
The “present value” of projected pension payments and income to the plan is used to calculate the “funding ratio”: $ projected payments/$ income
A funding ratio of at least 80% is considered “safe”Strictly Financials 49
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Funding Levels of Public Plans*
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What the Future Holds In 2008 most plans were funded at over 80%,
but by 2009 only 36% were. Falling stock market reduced portfolio values Reduced contributions from states as they struggled
to balance budgets. Alternatives for state and local government
plans CA, IL, NJ may need to increase contributions to 8-
12% of state budgets to keep plans solvent. Most states need to increase contributions an
additional 2% of state budget to get funding up to 80%.
Experiences of Minnesota and Colorado to change plan benefits. Strictly Financials 51
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Story Ideas
1. What is the financial health of pension plans in your area? (Public plans have to provide data.)
2. Are plan administrators considering actions to modify plans? What resistance is expected?
3. What has been the financial performance of the fund over time? Is it competitive with other plans?
4. What is retirement pay for high paid employees?
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Resources “Covering your local pension plan”
SABEW Teletraining, Dec. 5, 2011 http://sabew.org/2011/12/covering-yo
ur-local-pension-plan/ Detailed tutorial by David Milstead Advice from Barlett and Steele winner
Craig Harris of the Arizona Republic Overview from the National Council of
State Legislatures
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