financial analysis total sa - total sa explores for, produces, refines, transports, and markets oil...

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20.02.2013 Ticker: Total SA Benchmark: Currency: EN Paris: FP, Currency: EUR CAC 40 INDEX (CAC) Sector: Energy Industry: Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels Year: Telephone 33-1-47-44-45-46 Revenue (M) Business Segments in EUR Sales (M) Geographic Segments in EUR Sales (M) Website www.total.com No of Employees Chemicals 87524 Rest of Europe 1 Address 2 place Jean Miller La Defense 6 Paris La Defense Cedex, 92400 France Downstream 72445 France Share Price Performance in EUR Upstream 22143 Far East and Rest of the World Price 37.96 1M Return -3.4% Corporate 187 North America 52 Week High 40.82 6M Return -3.4% Intercompany Africa 52 Week Low 31.94 52 Wk Return -4.1% Unallocated- Excise taxes 52 Wk Beta 0.86 YTD Return -2.7% Credit Ratings Bloomberg IG2 S&P AA- Date 12.04.2011 Outlook STABLE Moody's Aa1 Date - Outlook NEG Fitch AA Date 12.04.2002 Outlook STABLE Valuation Ratios 12/09 12/10 12/11 12/12 12/13E 12/14E 12/15E P/E 11.9x 8.4x 7.2x 8.2x 7.2x 7.1x 6.6x EV/EBIT 7.7x 5.5x 4.4x 4.8x - - - EV/EBITDA 5.2x 3.7x 3.3x 3.3x 3.2x 3.1x 3.0x P/S 0.9x 0.6x 0.5x 0.5x 0.5x 0.5x 0.5x P/B 1.9x 1.5x 1.3x 1.2x 1.1x 1.0x 0.9x Div Yield 5.1% 5.8% 5.8% 6.0% 6.3% 6.4% 6.6% Profitability Ratios % 12/09 12/10 12/11 12/12 12/13E 12/14E 12/15E Gross Margin - - - - - - - EBITDA Margin 19.8 20.0 19.8 17.7 18.6 19.2 20.3 Operating Margin 13.5 13.4 14.6 12.0 12.9 13.5 12.5 Profit Margin 7.5 7.5 7.4 5.9 6.7 6.9 7.5 Return on Assets 6.9 7.8 8.0 6.4 10.6 11.3 11.8 Return on Equity 16.6 18.7 19.1 15.2 15.3 14.5 14.1 Leverage and Coverage Ratios 12/09 12/10 12/11 12/12 Current Ratio 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 Current Capitalization in EUR Quick Ratio 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 Common Shares Outstanding (M) 2257.5 EBIT/Interest 28.5 40.6 34.1 32.6 Market Capitalization (M) 89799.0 Tot Debt/Capital 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 Cash and ST Investments (M) 17031.0 Tot Debt/Equity 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 Total Debt (M) 33290.0 Eff Tax Rate % 47.3 48.6 52.8 54.7 Preferred Equity (M) 0.0 LT Investments in Affiliate Companies (M) 0.0 Investments (M) 1281.0 Enterprise Value (M) 107339.0 Total SA explores for, produces, refines, transports, and markets oil and natural gas. The Company also operates a chemical division which produces polypropylene, polyethylene, polystyrene, rubber, paint, ink, adhesives, and resins. Total operates gasoline filling stations in Europe, the United States, and Africa. FP FP 182'299 #N/A N/A Company Analysis - Overview 48% 40% 12% 0% Chemicals Downstream Upstream Corporate 100% Rest of Europe Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: [email protected] |

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20.02.2013

Ticker: Total SA Benchmark:

Currency: EN Paris: FP, Currency: EUR CAC 40 INDEX (CAC)

Sector: Energy Industry: Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels Year:

Telephone 33-1-47-44-45-46 Revenue (M) Business Segments in EUR Sales (M) Geographic Segments in EUR Sales (M)

Website www.total.com No of Employees Chemicals 87524 Rest of Europe 1

Address 2 place Jean Miller La Defense 6 Paris La Defense Cedex, 92400 France Downstream 72445 France

Share Price Performance in EUR Upstream 22143 Far East and Rest of the World

Price 37.96 1M Return -3.4% Corporate 187 North America

52 Week High 40.82 6M Return -3.4% Intercompany Africa

52 Week Low 31.94 52 Wk Return -4.1% Unallocated- Excise taxes

52 Wk Beta 0.86 YTD Return -2.7%

Credit Ratings

Bloomberg IG2

S&P AA- Date 12.04.2011 Outlook STABLE

Moody's Aa1 Date - Outlook NEG

Fitch AA Date 12.04.2002 Outlook STABLE

Valuation Ratios

12/09 12/10 12/11 12/12 12/13E 12/14E 12/15E

P/E 11.9x 8.4x 7.2x 8.2x 7.2x 7.1x 6.6x

EV/EBIT 7.7x 5.5x 4.4x 4.8x - - -

EV/EBITDA 5.2x 3.7x 3.3x 3.3x 3.2x 3.1x 3.0x

P/S 0.9x 0.6x 0.5x 0.5x 0.5x 0.5x 0.5x

P/B 1.9x 1.5x 1.3x 1.2x 1.1x 1.0x 0.9x

Div Yield 5.1% 5.8% 5.8% 6.0% 6.3% 6.4% 6.6%

Profitability Ratios %

12/09 12/10 12/11 12/12 12/13E 12/14E 12/15E

Gross Margin - - - - - - -

EBITDA Margin 19.8 20.0 19.8 17.7 18.6 19.2 20.3

Operating Margin 13.5 13.4 14.6 12.0 12.9 13.5 12.5

Profit Margin 7.5 7.5 7.4 5.9 6.7 6.9 7.5

Return on Assets 6.9 7.8 8.0 6.4 10.6 11.3 11.8

Return on Equity 16.6 18.7 19.1 15.2 15.3 14.5 14.1

Leverage and Coverage Ratios

12/09 12/10 12/11 12/12

Current Ratio 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 Current Capitalization in EUR

Quick Ratio 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 Common Shares Outstanding (M) 2257.5

EBIT/Interest 28.5 40.6 34.1 32.6 Market Capitalization (M) 89799.0

Tot Debt/Capital 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 Cash and ST Investments (M) 17031.0

Tot Debt/Equity 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 Total Debt (M) 33290.0

Eff Tax Rate % 47.3 48.6 52.8 54.7 Preferred Equity (M) 0.0

LT Investments in Affiliate Companies (M) 0.0

Investments (M) 1281.0

Enterprise Value (M) 107339.0

Total SA explores for, produces, refines, transports, and markets oil and natural gas.

The Company also operates a chemical division which produces polypropylene,

polyethylene, polystyrene, rubber, paint, ink, adhesives, and resins. Total operates

gasoline filling stations in Europe, the United States, and Africa.

FP FP

182'299

#N/A N/A

Company Analysis - Overview

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Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: [email protected] |

Total SA

Target price in EUR

Date Buy Hold Sell Date Price Target Price Broker Analyst Recommendation Target Date

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Company Analysis - Analysts Ratings

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Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: [email protected] |

20.02.2013

Total SA

Ownership Statistics Geographic Ownership Distribution

Shares Outstanding (M) 2257.5 France 39.24%

Float 85.9% United States 19.99%

Short Interest (M) Belgium 11.80%

Short Interest as % of Float Norway 5.57%

Days to Cover Shorts Qatar 5.56%

Institutional Ownership 29.85% Luxembourg 4.32%

Retail Ownership 70.14% Britain 2.85%

Insider Ownership 0.01% Others 10.67%

Institutional Ownership Distribution

Investment Advisor 43.30%

Corporation 16.95%

Mutual Fund Manager 15.92%

Government 11.09%

Pricing data is in EUR Others 12.74%

Top 20 Owners:

Holder Name Position Position Change Market Value % of Ownership Report Date Source Country

TOTAL SA 108'732'635 0 4'126'947'161 4.60% 31.12.2011 Co File FRANCE

GROUPE BRUXELLES LAM 94'077'367 0 3'570'706'464 3.98% 15.03.2012 Research BELGIUM

AMUNDI 78'390'326 0 2'975'304'823 3.31% 06.01.2012 Research FRANCE

QATAR HOLDINGS LLC 47'275'059 0 1'794'324'864 2.00% 14.03.2012 Research QATAR

NORGES BANK 47'038'683 0 1'785'353'213 1.99% 31.12.2011 Research NORWAY

VANGUARD GROUP INC 40'249'545 287'390 1'527'671'480 1.70% 31.12.2012 MF-AGG UNITED STATES

NATIXIS ASSET MANAGE 37'542'094 -1'584'992 1'424'910'178 1.59% 31.12.2012 MF-AGG FRANCE

CIE NATIONALE A PORT 35'456'294 0 1'345'743'639 1.50% 31.12.2011 Co File FRANCE

BLACKROCK 28'714'933 525'890 1'089'875'282 1.21% 15.02.2013 ULT-AGG UNITED STATES

CAPITAL GROUP COMPAN 19'734'600 -2'024'000 749'026'743 0.83% 31.12.2012 ULT-AGG UNITED STATES

AMUNDI 14'433'514 -81'020 547'824'024 0.61% 30.11.2012 MF-AGG FRANCE

FRANKLIN RESOURCES 13'467'760 -210'659 511'168'831 0.57% 31.12.2012 ULT-AGG UNITED STATES

ONTARIO TEACHERS PEN 11'200'000 0 425'096'000 0.47% 31.12.2011 Research CANADA

BANK OF NEW YORK MEL 10'458'427 -194'792 396'949'597 0.44% 15.02.2013 MF-AGG UNITED STATES

AVIVA PLC 10'451'098 -9'605 396'671'425 0.44% 31.01.2013 MF-AGG BRITAIN

GRANTHAM MAYO VAN OT 8'031'246 21'870 304'825'942 0.34% 31.05.2012 MF-AGG UNITED STATES

LBPAM 7'707'489 -194'720 292'537'745 0.33% 31.12.2012 MF-AGG FRANCE

WADDELL & REED FINAN 7'573'598 -6'360 287'455'912 0.32% 31.12.2012 MF-AGG UNITED STATES

MERCURY ASSET MANAGE 7'318'146 0 277'760'231 0.31% 15.02.2013 MF-AGG IRELAND

FIRST EAGLE INVESTME 7'054'684 0 267'760'531 0.30% 30.09.2012 MF-AGG UNITED STATES

Top 5 Insiders:

Holder Name Position Position Change Market Value % of Ownership Report Date Source

DESMAREST THIERRY 186'576 7'081'492 0.01% 31.12.2011 Co File

MARGERIE CHRISTOPHE DE 105'556 4'006'378 0.00% 31.12.2011 Co File

COLLOMB BERTRAND P 4'712 178'844 0.00% 31.12.2011 Co File

RUDDER THIERRY DE 3'956 150'150 0.00% 12.01.2012 Co File

BOUTON DANIEL 3'200 121'456 0.00% 31.12.2011 Co File

Company Analysis - Ownership

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Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: [email protected] |

Total SA

Financial information is in EUR (M)

Periodicity: 12/02 12/03 12/04 12/05 12/06 12/07 12/08 12/09 12/10 12/11 12/12 12/13E 12/14E 12/15E

Income Statement

Revenue 102'540 104'652 100'481 117'057 132'689 136'824 160'331 112'153 140'476 166'550 182'299 179'249 179'650 174'398

- Cost of Goods Sold

Gross Income

- Selling, General & Admin Expenses 92'626 92'021 83'795 92'888 108'559 111'523 136'644 97'029 121'591 142'260 160'437

(Research & Dev Costs) 662 667 635 510 569 594 612 650 715 776

Operating Income 9'914 12'631 16'686 24'169 24'130 25'301 23'687 15'124 18'885 24'290 21'862 23'118 24'266 21'844

- Interest Expense 597 629 737 1'214 1'731 1'783 1'000 530 465 713 671

- Foreign Exchange Losses (Gains) 59 75

- Net Non-Operating Losses (Gains) -1'671 -629 -3'845 -1'955 -3'461 -3'592 -2'412 -1'786 -2'615 -3'077 -2'716

Pretax Income 10'988 12'572 19'719 24'910 25'860 27'110 25'099 16'380 21'035 26'654 23'907 24'207 24'931 24'924

- Income Tax Expense 5'034 5'353 8'570 11'806 13'720 13'575 14'146 7'751 10'228 14'073 13'066

Income Before XO Items 5'954 7'219 11'149 13'104 12'140 13'535 10'953 8'629 10'807 12'581 10'841

- Extraordinary Loss Net of Tax 0 0 0 461 5 0 0 0 0 0 0

- Minority Interests 13 194 281 370 367 354 363 182 236 305 147

Diluted EPS Before XO Items 2.23 2.77 4.48 5.40 5.09 5.80 4.71 3.78 4.71 5.44 4.72

Net Income Adjusted* 5'941 7'025 9'612 12'273 12'585 12'203 13'920 7'784 10'288 11'424 12'361 12'036 12'444 13'148

EPS Adjusted 2.23 2.78 3.91 4.85 5.49 5.41 6.23 3.49 4.58 5.08 5.45 5.27 5.36 5.72

Dividends Per Share 1.03 1.18 1.35 1.62 1.87 2.07 2.28 2.28 2.28 2.28 2.34 2.39 2.43 2.52

Payout Ratio % 47.4 43.8 31.6 31.3 38.5 37.6 51.1 63.4 50.7 43.9 51.8 0.45 0.45 0.44

Total Shares Outstanding 2'609 2'448 2'384 2'323 2'265 2'244 2'229 2'233 2'237 2'254 2'258

Diluted Shares Outstanding 2'664 2'541 2'426 2'362 2'312 2'274 2'247 2'237 2'244 2'257 2'267

EBITDA 15'918 17'936 22'408 29'821 29'422 30'726 29'887 22'234 28'045 32'919 32'343 33'338 34'581 35'316

*Net income excludes extraordinary gains and losses and one-time charges.

Equivalent Estimates

Company Analysis - Financials I/IV

Fiscal Year

Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: [email protected] |

Periodicity: 12/02 12/03 12/04 12/05 12/06 12/07 12/08 12/09 12/10 12/11 12/12 12/13E 12/14E 12/15E

Balance Sheet

Total Current Assets 31319 29513 32940 43753 42787 48238 47058 49757 58206 63663 67517

+ Cash & Near Cash Items 4'966 4'836 3'860 4'318 2'493 5'988 12'321 11'662 14'489 14'025 15'469

+ Short Term Investments 1'508 1'404 477 334 3'908 1'264 187 311 1'205 700 1'562

+ Accounts & Notes Receivable 13'087 12'357 14'025 19'612 17'393 19'129 15'287 15'719 18'159 20'049 19'206

+ Inventories 6'515 6'137 9'264 12'690 11'746 13'851 9'621 13'867 15'600 18'691 17'397

+ Other Current Assets 5'243 4'779 5'314 6'799 7'247 8'006 9'642 8'198 8'753 10'198 13'883

Total Long-Term Assets 54'010 50'450 53'827 62'391 62'436 65'303 71'252 77'996 85'512 100'386 104'312

+ Long Term Investments 1'221 1'162 2'714 1'516 1'250 1'291 1'165 1'162 4'590 3'674 1'190

Gross Fixed Assets 97'592 93'819 106'034 102'211 102'845 108'822 121'422 131'920 147'144

Accumulated Depreciation 59'000 57'533 65'466 61'635 61'378 62'680 69'832 76'956 82'687

+ Net Fixed Assets 38'592 36'286 34'906 40'568 40'576 41'467 46'142 51'590 54'964 64'457 69'332

+ Other Long Term Assets 14'197 13'002 16'207 20'307 20'610 22'545 23'945 25'244 25'958 32'255 33'790

Total Current Liabilities 25'182 23'109 26'777 33'428 33'522 35'662 34'327 34'408 40'448 46'702 49'019

+ Accounts Payable 10'236 10'304 11'672 16'406 15'080 18'183 14'815 15'383 18'450 22'086 21'648

+ Short Term Borrowings 5'096 3'835 3'957 3'953 5'933 4'673 7'880 7'117 9'653 9'675 11'016

+ Other Short Term Liabilities 9'850 8'970 11'148 13'069 12'509 12'806 11'632 11'908 12'345 14'941 16'355

Total Long Term Liabilities 26'800 25'388 27'572 31'233 30'553 32'179 34'033 39'806 41'999 47'958 48'617

+ Long Term Borrowings 10'157 9'783 11'289 13'793 14'174 14'876 16'191 19'437 20'783 22'557 22'274

+ Other Long Term Borrowings 16'643 15'605 16'283 17'440 16'379 17'303 17'842 20'369 21'216 25'401 26'343

Total Liabilities 51'982 48'497 54'349 64'661 64'075 67'841 68'360 74'214 82'447 94'660 97'636

+ Long Preferred Equity 396 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

+ Minority Interest 724 664 810 838 827 842 958 987 857 1'352 1'281

+ Share Capital & APIC 37'386 51'742 38'067 43'655 47'524 54'786 34'213 33'042 33'082 5'909 5'915

+ Retained Earnings & Other Equity -4'763 -21'336 -6'459 -3'010 -7'203 -9'928 14'779 19'510 27'332 62'128 66'997

Total Shareholders Equity 33'347 31'466 32'418 41'483 41'148 45'700 49'950 53'539 61'271 69'389 74'193

Total Liabilities & Equity 85'329 79'963 86'767 106'144 105'223 113'541 118'310 127'753 143'718 164'049 171'829

Book Value Per Share 12.51 12.42 13.26 17.49 17.81 19.99 21.98 23.53 27.00 30.18 32.30 35.18 38.24 41.93

Tangible Book Value Per Share 11.45 11.60 11.93 15.61 15.73 17.92 19.59 20.17 23.02 24.68 26.60

Company Analysis - Financials II/IV

Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: [email protected] |

Periodicity: 12/02 12/03 12/04 12/05 12/06 12/07 12/08 12/09 12/10 12/11 12/12 12/13E 12/14E 12/15E

Cash Flows

Net Income 5'941 7'025 10'868 12'273 11'768 13'181 10'590 8'447 10'571 12'276 10'694 11'886 12'394 13'559

+ Depreciation & Amortization 6'004 5'305 5'722 5'652 5'292 5'425 6'200 7'110 9'160 8'629 10'481

+ Other Non-Cash Adjustments -875 -225 -1'675 598 -689 556 -692 119 -742 370 203

+ Changes in Non-Cash Capital -64 382 -253 -3'854 -310 -1'476 2'571 -3'316 -496 -1'739 1'084

Cash From Operating Activities 11'006 12'487 14'662 14'669 16'061 17'686 18'669 12'360 18'493 19'536 22'462

+ Disposal of Fixed Assets 290 315 225 274 413 569 130 138 1'534 1'439 1'418

+ Capital Expenditures -6'942 -6'708 -7'403 -8'848 -9'910 -10'549 -11'861 -11'849 -13'812 -17'950 -19'905 -20'985 -20'404 -20'450

+ Increase in Investments -476 -996 -1'153 -1'220 -1'340 -945 -1'212 -1'949

+ Decrease in Investments 1'346 743 966 135 699 982 2'367 2'943 2'472 6'564 4'101

+ Other Investing Activities -1'543 392 -504 -1'668 -776 -15 -471 -160 -1'206 -4'804 -737

Cash From Investing Activities -6'849 -5'734 -7'712 -10'107 -9'574 -10'166 -11'055 -10'268 -11'957 -15'963 -17'072

+ Dividends Paid -2'514 -2'571 -4'293 -3'510 -3'999 -4'510 -4'945 -5'086 -5'098 -5'140 -5'184

+ Change in Short Term Borrowings 746 -2'153 -2'195 -951 -6 -2'654 1'437 -3'124 -1'548 -2'974 -2'754

+ Increase in Long Term Borrowings 1'642 2'657 2'249 2'878 3'722 3'220 3'009 5'522 3'789 4'069 5'279

+ Decrease in Long Term Borrowings -549 0

+ Increase in Capital Stocks 461 69 371 17 511 89 262 63 90 481 32

+ Decrease in Capital Stocks -2'945 -3'994 -3'554 -3'189 -3'830 -1'526 -1'189 -68

+ Other Financing Activities -155 -342 -528 -311 -3'805 1'356 145 -126 -942 -473 -1'251

Cash From Financing Activities -2'765 -6'883 -7'950 -5'066 -7'407 -4'025 -1'281 -2'751 -3'709 -4'037 -3'946

Net Changes in Cash 1'392 -130 -1'000 -504 -920 3'495 6'333 -659 2'827 -464 1'444

Free Cash Flow (CFO-CAPEX) 4'064 5'779 7'259 5'821 6'151 7'137 6'808 511 4'681 1'586 2'557 1'771 3'128 4'731

Free Cash Flow To Firm 4'387 6'140 7'676 6'460 6'964 8'027 7'244 790 4'920 1'923 2'861

Free Cash Flow To Equity 7'142 8'022 10'280 8'272 11'384 3'047 8'456 4'120 6'500

Free Cash Flow per Share 1.53 2.28 3.00 2.37 2.68 3.16 3.05 0.23 2.09 0.71 1.13

Company Analysis - Financials III/IV

Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: [email protected] |

Periodicity: 12/02 12/03 12/04 12/05 12/06 12/07 12/08 12/09 12/10 12/11 12/12 12/13E 12/14E 12/15E

Ratio Analysis

Valuation Ratios

Price Earnings 15.2x 13.3x 8.9x 10.3x 10.6x 9.7x 8.2x 11.9x 8.4x 7.2x 8.2x 7.2x 7.1x 6.6x

EV to EBIT 9.9x 7.8x 6.4x 5.7x 5.7x 5.6x 4.2x 7.7x 5.5x 4.4x 4.8x

EV to EBITDA 6.2x 5.5x 4.8x 4.6x 4.7x 4.6x 3.3x 5.2x 3.7x 3.3x 3.3x 3.2x 3.1x 3.0x

Price to Sales 0.9x 0.9x 1.0x 1.1x 0.9x 0.9x 0.5x 0.9x 0.6x 0.5x 0.5x 0.5x 0.5x 0.5x

Price to Book 2.7x 3.0x 3.0x 3.0x 3.1x 2.8x 1.8x 1.9x 1.5x 1.3x 1.2x 1.1x 1.0x 0.9x

Dividend Yield 3.0% 3.2% 3.4% 3.1% 3.4% 3.6% 5.9% 5.1% 5.8% 5.8% 6.0% 6.3% 6.4% 6.6%

Profitability Ratios

Gross Margin

EBITDA Margin 15.5% 17.1% 22.3% 25.5% 22.2% 22.5% 18.6% 19.8% 20.0% 19.8% 17.7% 18.6% 19.2% 20.3%

Operating Margin 9.7% 12.1% 16.6% 20.6% 18.2% 18.5% 14.8% 13.5% 13.4% 14.6% 12.0% 12.9% 13.5% 12.5%

Profit Margin 5.8% 6.7% 10.8% 10.5% 8.9% 9.6% 6.6% 7.5% 7.5% 7.4% 5.9% 6.7% 6.9% 7.5%

Return on Assets 6.8% 8.5% 13.0% 12.7% 11.1% 12.1% 9.1% 6.9% 7.8% 8.0% 6.4% 10.6% 11.3% 11.8%

Return on Equity 17.9% 22.3% 35.1% 34.0% 29.1% 30.9% 22.6% 16.6% 18.7% 19.1% 15.2% 15.3% 14.5% 14.1%

Leverage & Coverage Ratios

Current Ratio 1.24 1.28 1.23 1.31 1.28 1.35 1.37 1.45 1.44 1.36 1.38

Quick Ratio 0.78 0.80 0.69 0.73 0.71 0.74 0.81 0.80 0.84 0.74 0.74

Interest Coverage Ratio (EBIT/I) 14.45 20.08 22.64 19.91 13.94 14.19 23.69 28.54 40.61 34.07 32.58

Tot Debt/Capital 0.31 0.30 0.32 0.30 0.33 0.30 0.33 0.33 0.33 0.32 0.31

Tot Debt/Equity 0.46 0.43 0.47 0.43 0.49 0.43 0.48 0.50 0.50 0.46 0.45

Others

Asset Turnover 1.18 1.27 1.21 1.21 1.26 1.25 1.38 0.91 1.03 1.08 1.09

Accounts Receivable Turnover 7.71 8.23 7.62 6.96 7.17 7.49 9.32 7.23 8.29 8.72 9.29

Accounts Payable Turnover

Inventory Turnover

Effective Tax Rate 45.8% 42.6% 43.5% 47.4% 53.1% 50.1% 56.4% 47.3% 48.6% 52.8% 54.7%

Company Analysis - Financials IV/IV

Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: [email protected] |

TOTAL SAROYAL DUTCH SH-

ABP PLC ENI SPA

EXXON MOBIL

CORPSTATOIL ASA CHEVRON CORP CONOCOPHILLIPS IMPERIAL OIL OCCIDENTAL PETE PETROBRAS-PREF BG GROUP PLC

ZAZA ENERGY

CORPMOL PAK STATE OIL

12/2012 12/2012 12/2012 12/2012 12/2012 12/2012 12/2012 12/2012 12/2012 12/2012 12/2012 12/2012 12/2011 12/2011 06/2012

42.97 2'349.00 512.00 19.59 93.67 162.80 118.53 62.05 49.26 106.68 25.30 1'554.00 5.20 19'975.00 238.00

14.03.2012 24.02.2012 05.03.2012 18.01.2013 19.10.2012 14.03.2012 21.09.2012 30.01.2013 24.02.2012 28.02.2012 02.03.2012 28.02.2012 21.02.2012 19.03.2012 20.02.2013

33.42 1'956.50 389.50 14.94 77.13 133.20 95.73 50.62 39.77 72.43 17.26 991.00 1.20 14'800.00 193.75

01.06.2012 18.05.2012 18.05.2012 25.07.2012 05.06.2012 26.06.2012 04.06.2012 04.06.2012 05.06.2012 16.11.2012 05.02.2013 19.11.2012 08.11.2012 30.05.2012 22.06.2012

4'244'584 2'393'694 27'710'610 7'368'242 3'648'147 2'206'312 1'442'611 2'208'589 263'107 1'577'374 10'621'900 3'367'365 93'973 211'449 565'500

37.96 2'158.50 446.50 17.68 89.30 144.70 115.46 57.99 42.85 85.42 17.95 1'161.00 1.58 18'000.00 236.69

-11.7% -8.1% -12.8% -9.7% -4.7% -11.1% -2.6% -6.5% -13.0% -19.9% -29.1% -25.3% -69.7% -9.9% -0.6%

13.6% 10.3% 14.6% 18.3% 15.8% 8.6% 20.6% 14.6% 7.7% 17.9% 4.0% 17.2% 31.2% 21.6% 22.2%

2'257.5 6'305.9 19'119.8 3'634.2 4'734.0 3'188.6 1'981.2 1'285.7 848.0 811.0 13'044.5 3'402.0 25.3 98.7 205.8

89'799.0 139'370.1 85'565.4 64'252.4 407'149.3 461'397.2 225'976.1 70'806.6 36'319.6 69'205.9 218'296.3 39'499.7 160.3 1'881'343.1 48'716.4

33'290.0 37'754.0 48'797.0 24'463.0 17'033.0 119'385.0 10'152.0 22'623.0 1'207.0 5'871.0 196'350.3 15'507.0 33.5 1'182'342.0 45'772.6

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

1'281.0 1'433.0 1'206.0 3'514.0 6'348.0 674.0 799.0 510.0 - - 2'354.0 57.0 - 591'203.0 -

17'031.0 18'550.0 20'114.0 8'066.0 12'664.0 80'101.0 16'113.0 6'361.0 1'202.0 3'781.0 49'302.8 4'434.0 5.7 311'133.0 1'624.0

107'339.0 233'713.0 160'705.7 84'163.4 412'160.3 501'355.2 218'019.1 91'126.6 37'279.6 73'067.9 367'697.8 71'519.2 135.7 3'148'326.2 92'865.0

LFY 182'299.0 467'153.0 370'866.0 127'271.0 449'886.0 705'734.0 222'580.0 57'967.0 31'188.0 24'172.0 281'379.5 18'933.0 33.0 5'343'234.0 1'024'423.6

LTM 182'299.0 467'153.0 370'866.0 127'271.0 426'252.0 705'734.0 222'580.0 96'888.0 30'058.0 24'172.0 281'379.5 21'665.0 34.9 5'589'517.0 1'061'771.8

CY+1 179'248.7 455'153.6 337'719.0 121'289.6 422'334.8 644'013.7 227'992.7 51'242.3 31'162.8 24'965.7 289'985.2 20'616.8 - 5'349'047.4 1'071'954.4

CY+2 179'649.8 466'949.4 348'629.6 123'474.0 454'263.9 659'955.4 237'395.0 54'625.6 34'039.0 26'980.7 302'301.3 23'513.8 - 5'325'823.0 1'131'353.4

LFY 0.6x 0.5x 0.4x 0.7x 0.9x 0.7x 1.0x 1.5x 1.3x 3.0x 1.4x 3.5x 8.4x 0.6x -

LTM 0.6x 0.5x 0.4x 0.7x 1.0x 0.7x 1.0x 0.7x 1.3x 3.1x 1.4x 3.1x 8.0x 0.6x -

CY+1 0.6x 0.5x 0.5x 0.7x 1.0x 0.8x 1.0x 1.7x 1.3x 3.0x 1.4x 3.6x - 0.6x -

CY+2 0.6x 0.5x 0.4x 0.7x 0.9x 0.8x 1.0x 1.6x 1.2x 2.7x 1.5x 3.3x - 0.6x -

LFY 32'343.0 52'114.0 21'187.0 24'564.0 69'687.0 267'081.0 48'426.0 19'396.0 5'754.0 12'765.0 53'158.1 10'198.0 (2.5) 587'744.0 26'075.6

LTM 31'942.0 52'114.0 22'056.0 24'564.0 64'877.0 266'261.0 48'426.0 20'383.0 5'634.0 12'164.0 53'158.2 10'561.0 (64.8) 535'440.0 -

CY+1 33'338.2 60'695.9 37'939.7 28'813.8 80'100.4 244'153.1 54'850.9 21'776.5 5'643.7 15'793.4 67'573.5 11'262.0 - 582'241.4 25'433.0

CY+2 34'580.9 62'737.2 42'132.4 30'201.0 83'021.0 249'156.8 57'388.5 24'210.1 6'191.0 17'278.3 79'026.3 13'437.4 - 609'673.0 24'922.0

LFY 3.3x 4.6x 7.6x 3.5x 6.1x 1.8x 4.5x 4.6x 6.8x 5.8x 7.6x 6.6x -110.9x 5.4x -

LTM 3.3x 4.6x 7.3x 3.5x 6.5x 1.8x 4.5x 4.3x 7.4x 5.5x 7.6x 6.4x - 6.0x -

CY+1 3.3x 3.9x 4.0x 2.8x 5.3x 2.1x 4.1x 4.0x 7.2x 4.7x 6.0x 6.5x - 5.6x -

CY+2 3.2x 3.8x 3.7x 2.7x 5.1x 2.1x 4.0x 3.6x 6.6x 4.2x 5.6x 5.7x - 5.1x -

LFY 4.72 3.94 0.44 1.93 7.56 - 12.10 5.37 4.34 7.09 1.62 1.29 -0.46 1'584.14 44.00

LTM 4.73 4.25 0.61 2.39 7.89 21.66 12.12 6.09 4.39 7.09 1.62 1.02 -0.45 1'268.91 52.27

CY+1 5.27 4.22 0.87 2.00 7.89 16.53 12.17 5.51 4.00 7.32 2.43 1.32 - 1'955.22 61.16

CY+2 5.36 4.32 0.98 2.15 8.30 17.10 12.55 6.19 4.33 7.90 2.66 1.57 - 1'899.46 67.32

LFY 8.0x 7.8x 11.2x 7.4x 11.3x 6.7x 9.5x 9.5x 9.8x 12.0x 11.1x 17.3x - 14.2x 4.5x

LTM 8.0x 8.3x 20.1x 8.3x 11.3x - 9.5x 9.5x 9.8x 12.0x 11.1x 13.3x - 16.1x 4.5x

CY+1 7.2x 7.8x 7.9x 8.9x 11.3x 8.8x 9.5x 10.5x 10.7x 11.7x 7.4x 13.5x - 9.2x 3.9x

CY+2 7.1x 7.6x 7.0x 8.2x 10.8x 8.5x 9.2x 9.4x 9.9x 10.8x 6.8x 11.3x - 9.5x 3.5x

1 Year 9.5% (0.6%) (1.2%) 16.1% 3.8% 9.3% (5.8%) (74.9%) 7.0% 1.0% 15.2% (10.2%) 37.4% 24.3% 24.8%

5 Year 4.5% 3.4% 5.1% 5.9% 2.4% (2.9%) (0.1%) (10.5%) 4.8% 4.0% 10.3% 6.9% 207.0% 16.2% 25.3%

1 Year (1.7%) (6.8%) (53.7%) (4.5%) - 2.0% (5.4%) (26.2%) 16.6% (9.9%) (13.7%) 1.7% 46.4% 16.3% 3.0%

5 Year 1.0% (0.7%) (10.8%) (1.1%) 0.4% 8.7% 7.1% (8.8%) 3.6% 4.5% 0.2% 6.1% - 5.7% 23.4%

LTM 17.5% 11.2% 5.9% 19.3% 15.2% 37.7% 21.8% 21.0% 18.7% 50.3% 18.9% 48.7% (185.7%) 9.6% -

CY+1 18.6% 13.3% 11.2% 23.8% 19.0% 37.9% 24.1% 42.5% 18.1% 63.3% 23.3% 54.6% - 10.9% 2.4%

CY+2 19.2% 13.4% 12.1% 24.5% 18.3% 37.8% 24.2% 44.3% 18.2% 64.0% 26.1% 57.1% - 11.4% 2.2%

Total Debt / Equity % 45.7% 20.0% 41.2% 41.3% 11.0% 37.4% 8.4% 34.7% 9.1% 15.6% 57.2% 46.9% 685.2% 71.6%

Total Debt / Capital % 31.0% 16.6% 29.0% 28.1% 9.6% 27.2% 7.7% 25.6% 8.3% 13.5% 36.2% 31.9% 87.3% 34.5%

Total Debt / EBITDA 1.042x 0.724x 2.212x 0.996x 0.192x 0.448x 0.254x 1.008x 0.270x 0.570x 3.694x 1.468x - 1.942x

Net Debt / EBITDA 0.509x 0.368x 1.300x 0.668x -0.010x 0.148x -0.190x 0.948x 0.182x 0.289x 2.766x 1.048x - 1.337x

EBITDA / Int. Expense 48.201x 29.661x 18.833x 27.909x 82.961x 95.122x 177.813x 14.650x 259.632x 109.103x 3.038x 15.198x -1.298x 14.276x

S&P LT Credit Rating AA- AA A A AAA AA- AA A AAA A BBB - - BB+

S&P LT Credit Rating Date 12.04.2011 03.09.2009 24.09.2010 17.01.2012 16.12.1985 03.08.2007 01.07.1987 07.02.2012 16.10.1992 23.06.2008 17.11.2011 - - 25.11.2008

Moody's LT Credit Rating Aa1 Aa1 - A3 WR Aa2 Aa1 A1 WR A1 - - - -

Moody's LT Credit Rating Date 30.08.2005 20.07.2005 - 16.07.2012 16.08.1993 23.06.2005 27.02.2009 26.04.2012 15.10.2002 19.04.2012 - - - -

52-Week High Date

52-Week Low

Latest Fiscal Year:

52-Week High

Total Debt

Market Capitalization

Daily Volume

52-Week Low % Change

Current Price (2/dd/yy)

52-Week High % Change

Cash and Equivalents

EBITDA

EV/EBITDA

Enterprise Value

Valuation

Preferred Stock

52-Week Low Date

Minority Interest

Total Common Shares (M)

P/E

Revenue Growth

Total Revenue

EV/Total Revenue

EPS

EBITDA Growth

EBITDA Margin

Credit Ratings

Leverage/Coverage Ratios

Company Analysis - Peers Comparision

Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: [email protected] |