challenges facing capacity in the supply of bitumen basil jonsson total oil sa
TRANSCRIPT
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Challenges facing capacity in the supply
of bitumenBasil JonssonTotal Oil SA
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Overview• Bitumen demand• Bitumen manufacturing• Bitumen manufacturing capacity• Factors influencing future supply
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Refinery
Transporting
Mixing
Drumming
Storage
Spraying
Supply Chain
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Annual global bitumen demand in 2000
35
23.5
22
5.5 5 1 1
N AmericaEuropeAsiaFSUC & S AmericaAustralasiaAfrica
Global consumption +- 103 million tons (RSA = 0.25%)
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RSA bitumen demand vs road expenditure
Bitumen volumes and Prov and Nat road expenditure
180000
200000
220000
240000
260000
280000
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Bitu
men
vol
umes
(ton
s)
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
5500
6000
6500
Roa
d Ex
pend
iture
(Rm
200
0)
Bitumen
Road expenditure
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Bitumen manufacture
• Bitumen is 100% locally manufactured product
• Produced from the residue of crude distillation
• 100% of the crude is imported• 75% of the crude is refined into white fuels
eg petrol, diesel etc• The residue not used for bitumen
manufacture is further processed as bunker fuel oil (coastal refineries)
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Petroleum products
LPG
Petrol
Paraffin
Diesel
Lubricants
Heavy fuel oil
Bitumen
Distillation of crude oil produces:
Bitumen is +- 2.5% of crude oil consumption
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Typical bitumen manufacture
Heavycrudes
VacuumDistillation
AtmosphericDistillation
Hard
Soft
Bitumen grades
AirBlowing
Bunker FuelOil
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Crudes suitable for bitumen
1500 known crudes1500 known crudes100 suitable for bitumen100 suitable for bitumen
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0
20
40
60
80
100
Vittorio
Bachaq
uero
Safan
iya
Kuwait
Iran L
TQat
ar
Gippsl
and
Gas & Gasoline
Kerosine
Gas oil
Vac distillate
Bitumen (200 pen)
Variability of crude oil
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Bitumen supply in Southern Africa
Gaborone
Windhoek
Johannesburg
Mossel Bay
Saldanha
Cape Town
Pretoria
Mbabane
Maputo
East London
Port Elizabeth
RichardsBay
Durban
Bloemfontein
Kimberly
MaseruPofadder
Messina
Pietersburg
Crude oilrefinery
Sapref
Calref
Enref
Natref
Synfuelplant
Mosgas
Secunda
Sasol
Sasolburg
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Production capacity
RefineryCrudeBbls/day
BitumenTons/day
Bitumen% crude
Calref 100,000 500 3%
Enref 120,000 1000 5%
Natref 100,000 500 3%
Sapref 180,000 600 2%
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Production capacity cont…
• Production capacity exceeds local demand– 262,000 ton demand in 2005 vs
780,000 ton/annum production capacity– Therefore RSA is a net exporter of
bitumen +- 150,000 ton/annum
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Factors influencing bitumen supply
• Growth in fuels demand vis-à-vis bitumen will result in :– Increased refinery throughput
(debottle necking vs expansion)– Increase in quantity of residue– More bitumen available– Increase in visbreaking of
vacuum distilled residue for fuels
– Increase demand for lighter crudes
– Investment in coking plants
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Factors influencing bitumen supply
• Environmental compliance will result in :– Cleaner fuels – Increase demand for low sulphur
crudes– Investment in
• desulphurisation units for fuels refining
• dedicated bitumen non fuels refining
– Lower fuming bitumen technology– Replacement of coal tar binders
with bituminous binders
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Factors influencing bitumen supply
• Tankage and loading capacity at refineries– Road tanker congestion
at peak demand– Delays incurred due to
testing reduce turnaround time of tankage
– Blending & dispatch facilities configured for JIT
• Ageing work force– Diminishing skills and
experienced operators– ‘Right first time’
production
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Factors influencing future bitumen supply
• End consumer requirements with respect to:– Performance grade specifications eg
SHRP– Compatibility requirements of secondary
producers with polymers and modifiers– Hard penetration grades for high
modulus asphalt– Blending of volatile cutback bitumen
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Conclusion
• RSA has the manufacturing capacity to exceed the local demand for bitumen into the foreseeable future
• There is no known reason to believe that this situation should change