CERN LIBRARIES, G E N E V A

CM-P00085196

CERN/FC/661 Original: English

5 December, 1963

O R G A N I S A T I O N E U R O P Ē E N N E P O U R LA R E C H E R C H E NUCLĒAIRE

C E R N E U R O P E A N O R G A N I Z A T I O N F O R NUCLEAR R E S E A R C H

FINANCE COMMITTEE

F i f t y - s i x t h M e e t i n g

G e n e v a - 16 December , 1963

FINAL REPORT AND RECOMMENDATION ON

NEW COMPUTERS FOR CERN

T h i s p a p e r c o n t a i n s t h e r e s u l t s of t h e e n q u i r i e s a n d s t u d i e s u n f i n i s h e d a t t h e t i m e of t h e m e e t i n g of t h e F i n a n c e C o m m i t t e e , on 13 N o v e m b e r , t o g e t h e r w i t h t h e D i r e c t o r - G e n e r a l ' s c o n c l u s i o n s a n d r e q u e s t t o t h e F i n a n c e C o m m i t t e e t o a u t h o r i z e CERN t o p u r c h a s e a CDC 6 6 0 0 c o m p u t e r f o r d e l i v e r y e a r l y i n 1965.

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FINAL REPORT AND RECOMMENDATION ON

NEW COMPUTERS FOR CERN

1. I n t r o d u c t i o n

The Finance Committee, at its meeting, on 13 November, discussed an interim report on CERN's computing needs (CERN/FC/653), w h i c h a c c o m p a n i e d t h e R e p o r t of t h e E u r o p e a n C o m m i t t e e on t h e F u t u r e C o m p u t i n g N e e d s of CERN, CERN/516 ( h e r e i n a f t e r r e f e r r e d t o a s " t h e R e p o r t " ) .

S i n c e t h e n , t h e f i n a l o f f e r s f rom m a n u f a c t u r e r s h a v e b e e n r e c e i v e d a n d e v a l u a t e d , a n d t h e o u t s t a n d i n g t e c h n i c a l s t u d i e s r e f e r r e d t o i n t h e c o n c l u s i o n of t h e I n t e r i m R e p o r t ( s e c t i o n 5) h a v e b e e n c a r r i e d o u t .

T h i s p a p e r c o n t a i n s :

- a s h o r t r e p o r t on t h e r e s u l t s of t h e s e t e c h n i c a l s t u d i e s ,

- t h e e v a l u a t i o n o f t h e f i n a l o f f e r s , t e c h n i c a l l y a n d f i n a n c i a l l y ,

- a p r o p o s a l f o r f i n a n c i n g t h e p u r c h a s e of t h e new c o m p u t e r ,

- t h e i m p l i c a t i o n s on t h e CERN b u d g e t a n d p rog ramme o f a new c o m p u t e r ,

- t h e c o n c l u s i o n , w i t h a r e q u e s t t h a t t h e F i n a n c e C o m m i t t e e a u t h o r i z e CERN t o p u r c h a s e a CDC 6 6 0 0 c o m p u t e r a n d t o r a i s e a l o a n f o r t h e n e c e s s a r y a m o u n t ,

- a n a n n e x c o n t a i n i n g p r i c e s and o t h e r m a t e r i a l f r o m t h e o f f e r s .

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2. R e s u l t s of f u r t h e r t e c h n i c a l s t u d i e s

A number of working groups of p h y s i c i s t s i n CERN have examined i n g r e a t e r d e t a i l how our v a r i o u s o n - l i n e a p p l i c a t i o n s f o r a l a r g e computer - a u t o m a t i c f i l m m e a s u r i n g d e v i c e s such as HPD and L u c i o l e , c o u n t e r and u l t r a s o n i c spa rk chamber e x p e r i m e n t s , d i g i t i z e d m e a s u r i n g machines ( IEPs ) - would work ou t i n p r a c t i c e w i t h t h e A t l a s I I and t h e CDC 6600.

The r e s u l t s , which w i l l be c i r c u l a t e d t o t h e European Committee f o r i n f o r m a t i o n , can be summarized v e r y b r i e f l y a s fo l l ows :

a) each o n - l i n e expe r imen t i s e x p e c t e d , by end 1965 - e a r l y 1966, t o demand whi l e o p e r a t i n g about 25% of t h e p r o c e s s i n g c a p a c i t y of t h e A t l a s I I and 6% of t h a t of t h e CDC 6600;

b) an a u t o m a t i c f i l m m e a s u r i n g d e v i c e may demand up t o 50%, 12% r e s p e c t i v e l y of t h e p r o c e s s i n g c a p a c i t y of t h e two m a c h i n e s ;

c) each o n - l i n e expe r imen t w i l l on ly use a few p e r c e n t of t h e A t l a s i n p u t - o u t p u t p o s s i b i l i t i e s and 1% or l e s s of t h o s e of t h e CDC 6600;

d) each f i l m measu r ing d e v i c e might use up t o 50% of t h e i n p u t - o u t p u t of A t l a s , or 10% of CDC 6600, though t h e s e f i g u r e s cou ld p r o b a b l y be r educed by changes i n t h e d e v i c e s t h e m s e l v e s ;

e) a possible, and rather modest, combination of two online experiments and one measuring device running t o g e t h e r c o u l d t h e r e f o r e , i n 1966, u s e t h e whole processing

c a p a c i t y of A t l a s I I and pe rhaps 10-20% of i t s input-output capacity; it would only take up one quarter of the processing power of the CDC 6600 and a few per cent of i t s i n p u t - o u t p u t .

These r e s u l t s conf i rm and s h a r p e n t h e more g e n e r a l l y based c o n c l u s i o n of t h e R e p o r t , t h a t t h e A t l a s I I would become s a t u r a t e d a t CERN d u r i n g 1967, w h i l s t t h e CDC 6600 has a d e q u a t e c a p a c i t y t o meet CERN's needs f o r an a d d i t i o n a l one t o two y e a r s .

I t s h o u l d be s t r e s s e d t h a t i n making t h e s e s t u d i e s , we have c o n s i d e r e d t h e t e c h n i c a l r e q u i r e m e n t s of p i c t u r e a n a l y s i n g d e v i c e s - HPD and L u c i o l e - coming i n t o use i n t h e n e x t y e a r , and of t h e p l anned development of e x p e r i m e n t s on t h e PS a l r e a d y s t a r t e d u s i n g r a t h e r p r i m i t i v e o n - l i n e t e c h n i q u e s . They r e f e r t o t h e l i k e l y s i t u a t i o n a t end 1965 - e a r l y 1966 . E s t i m a t e s f o r 1967, though

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n e c e s s a r i l y l e s s s o l i d l y based, show seve ra l - fo ld fu r the r i nc r ea se s in demand, which i s a qu i t e r e a l i s t i c r e s u l t for a newly introduced technique of phys ic s . In t h i s connect ion, i t i s worth no t ing tha t our computer use has grown by a f ac to r of 4 over the past year , with the b r ing ing of the presen t -day film ana ly s i s methods from the t r i a l s tage in to more general use . Both the automatic ana lys ing devices and the on- l ine experiments represent equa l ly large s t eps forward in technique , as did IEPs, and imply corresponding inc reases in computer use when the new computer i s a v a i l a b l e .

We have now received some more d e t a i l e d information from IBM on t h e i r next genera t ion of computers. Though cos t s and p r e c i s e d e l i v e r y times a re s t i l l not a v a i l a b l e , we have been to ld enough, under an agreement not to disclose the information to the general public, to confirm the conclusion in the Report of the European Committee t ha t CERN should not delay acqu i r ing i t s next computer on account of the IBM fu ture programme. The new IBM l i n e wi l l inc lude a t the top a machine about twice as powerful as the CDC 6600, but not r a d i c a l l y d i f f e r e n t from i t in genera l conception or technology. This machine i s the l e a s t developed in the new IBM l ine and w i l l not be a v a i l a b l e u n t i l well on i n t o 1966. The p r i ce i s not known, but i s thought to be d e f i n i t e l y more than the CDC 6600. Any way of us ing the new IBM machines would involve a s e r i e s of s t e p s , h i r i n g two of the smaller machines as s top -gaps , before even tua l ly changing to a very l a rge one.

We have a l so been to ld more about the Univac Mark VI. This machine e x i s t s only on paper and much of the design i s s t i l l not in a f i n a l form; i t could not be a v a i l a b l e before the end of 1965. Its speed seems to be about s ix times t ha t of the 7090, i . e . i t i s c lo se r to At las I I than to the CDC 6600.

We do not consider t ha t e i t h e r the IBM or the Univac machines are s u f f i c i e n t l y a t t r a c t i v e to be worth wai t ing fo r , e s p e c i a l l y as the re are many u n c e r t a i n t i e s in t h e i r s p e c i f i c a t i o n s , p r i c e s and d e l i v e r i e s .

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3. Conten t of t h e f i n a l o f f e r s from f i rms

Firms which had e a r l i e r s u b m i t t e d i n t e r e s t i n g p r o p o s a l s were s e n t a s l i g h t l y r e v i s e d s p e c i f i c a t i o n , and asked t o make f i r m q u o t a t i o n s of p r i c e and d e l i v e r y for two a l t e r n a t i v e computer s y s t e m s :

A. A b a t c h p r o c e s s i n g sys tem i n v o l v i n g a machine w i t h a f a s t memory of 65 000 words and on ly p r i m i t i v e t i m e - s h a r i n g f a c i l i t i e s .

B. A f u l l t i m e - s h a r i n g sys t em, w i t h a machince w i th 131 000 words of f a s t memory and a s s o c i a t e d p e r i p h e r a l equ ipmen t .

The t e c h n i c a l s t u d i e s of s e c t i o n 2 have g r e a t l y s t r e n g t h e n e d t h e c o n c l u s i o n of t h e Repo r t t h a t on ly t h e l a r g e t i m e - s h a r i n g sys tem would be a d e q u a t e f o r CERN's f u t u r e comput ing n e e d s ; c o n s e q u e n t l y , on ly t h e second s p e c i f i c a t i o n , B . , need be c o n s i d e r e d . The on ly machines o f f e r e d t o meet i t a r e t h e F e r r a n t i - I C T A t l a s I I and t h e C o n t r o l Data C o r p o r a t i o n 6600 .

a) T e c h n i c a l changes i n sys tems now o f f e r e d

The c o n f i g u r a t i o n s of t h e sys t ems as o f f e r e d were a l m o s t i d e n t i c a l t o t h o s e d e s c r i b e d i n t h e Repor t and i n i t s A p p e n d i c e s :

- one A t l a s I I now has two more i n p u t - o u t p u t c h a n n e l s , one f o r ½" magne t i c t a p e and t h e o t h e r f o r a d u a l search disc backing store: these changes will somewhat increase the tape and disc speeds of Atlas II,

- t h e CDC 6600 i s unchanged , e x c e p t t h a t a s p e c i a l HPD a d a p t o r , which was i n c l u d e d i n t h e c o s t e s t i m a t e i n t h e R e p o r t , i s no t now t h o u g h t n e c e s s a r y .

b) Summary t e c h n i c a l compar i son of o f f e r s

( i ) A t l a s I I CDC 6600

S t o r a g e

F a s t memory 131 000 4 8 - b i t words 2 .5 μs c y c l e t ime

131 000 6 0 - b i t words 1 μs c y c l e t ime

Disc s t o r e 4 000 000 words dua l s e a r c h

8 000 000 words

Magnet ic t a p e s 16 1" t a p e u n i t s 64 000 c h a r a c t e r s / s e c 2 ½" IBM c o m p a t i b l e

t a p e u n i t s

16 1" t a p e u n i t s 240 000 c h a r a c t e r s / s e c 2 ½" IBM c o m p a t i b l e

t a p e u n i t s

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A t l a s I I CDC 6600 ( i i ) I n p u t - o u t p u t

I n p u t - o u t p u t c h a n n e l s 10 10

Line p r i n t e r s 4 1 000 l i n e s / m i n 4 1 000 l i n e s / m i n

Card punches 1 100 c a r d s / m i n 1 2 5 0 c a r d s / m i n

Card r e a d e r s 2 600 c a r d s / m i n 1 1 200 c a r d s / m i n

Paper t a p e Yes Not o f f e r e d

( i i i ) Per formance

Range of internal speed on t e s t p rob lems

2 . 5 - 5 × IBM 7090 15-40 × IBM 7090

Throughput of j o b s

~ 4 × IBM 7090 ~ 15 × IBM 7090

Max. input-output rate w i t h o n - l i n e devices in normal use

1 4 8 - b i t word /10-20 μ sec t o t a l r a t e

~1 1 2 - b i t word /1 -2 µsec pe r c h a n n e l

The two machines a r e bo th d e s i g n e d f o r t i m e - s h a r i n g o p e r a t i o n , and a r e p r o p e r l y equ ipped w i th memory p r o t e c t i o n t o o p e r a t e i n t h i s way. The o f f e r s conf i rm t h e e v a l u a t i o n of t h e two computers made i n t h e R e p o r t : t h a t t h e q u a n t i t a t i v e pe r fo rmance of t h e CDC 6600 i s s u p e r i o r t o t h a t of A t l a s I I i n a lmos t eve ry r e s p e c t , b e i n g a t l e a s t 4 t imes f a s t e r , w i th c o r r e s p o n d i n g l y g r e a t e r p e r m i s s i b l e i n p u t - o u t p u t r a t e s and more powerfu l d i s c and t a p e s t o r a g e .

( i v ) S t a t u s of ha rdware and d e l i v e r y d a t e s promised

A t l a s I has been r u n n i n g a t Manches te r s i n c e e a r l y 1963. The f i r s t A t l a s I I i s b e i n g b u i l t and t e s t e d i n Cambridge now. Two more A t l a s I and a second A t l a s I I a r e - schedu led f o r d e l i v e r y b e f o r e t h e end of 1964.

The f i r s t CDC 6600 i s r u n n i n g i n t h e f a c t o r y and i s due t o be d e l i v e r e d t o L ivermore i n F e b r u a r y 1964. Four more a r e b e i n g b u i l t now.

F e r r a n t i o f f e r d e l i v e r y of an A t l a s I I by end of May 1965, CDC o f f e r d e l i v e r y by end of Oc tober 1964, p r o v i d e d , i n bo th c a s e s , o r d e r s a r e p l a c e d b e f o r e t h e end of t h i s y e a r .

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(v) Systems programmes a v a i l a b l e and programming s u p p o r t o f f e r e d

The A t l a s I I s u p e r v i s o r i s s t i l l b e i n g w r i t t e n and i s s c h e d u l e d fo r August 1964.

The F o r t r a n compi l e r f o r A t l a s I I i s p romised f o r t h e end of 1964.

A F o r t r a n compi l e r and s u p e r v i s o r w i l l be a v a i l a b l e w i t h t h e f i r s t CDC 6600 which w i l l go t o Livermore i n F e b r u a r y 1964. A more advanced s e t of sys tems programmes i s s c h e d u l e d t o be r e a d y i n Oc tobe r 1964.

For reprogramming and d e v e l o p i n g t h e i r sys tem t o s u i t CERN's n e e d s :

- F e r r a n t i o f f e r 8 man-yea r s of programming h e l p , f r e e of c h a r g e , s p r e a d over 1964 and 1965,

- CDC o f f e r 18 man-years over t h e same p e r i o d .

For t e s t i n g programmes b e f o r e d e l i v e r y of a machine a t CERN:

- F e r r a n t i o f f e r 50 hours of A t l a s t ime f r e e of c h a r g e and 50 more h o u r s a t 3 000 F r . / h r ( h a l f t h e i r normal r a t e ) ,

- CDC o f f e r " a d e q u a t e t ime f o r t e s t i n g programmes w r i t t e n by CERN" on t h e i r own 6600 i n t h e USA.

c) F i n a n c i a l c o n d i t i o n s of t h e o f f e r s

Both F e r r a n t i and CDC g i v e p r i c e s p r i m a r i l y f o r s a l e . ( H i r e p r i c e s a r e a l s o q u o t e d , but a r e so much h i g h e r as t o be q u i t e u n i n t e r e s t i n g . )

F e r r a n t i ask f o r 20% payment w i th o r d e r 70% on delivery

5% on hand-over 5% after a period of operation.

- CDC ask f o r 100% w i t h i n 30 days a f t e r i n s t a l l a t i o n .

- Both o f f e r d e f e r r e d payments b a s e d - o n 6% per annum i n t e r e s t r a t e on t h e unpa id b a l a n c e .

- Both o f f e r a f u r t h e r d i s c o u n t f o r c a s h - w i t h - o r d e r r a t h e r t h a n as s e t out above . How i n t e r e s t i n g t h i s i s depends on t h e method of f i n a n c i n g f i n a l l y chosen by CERN.

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The a c t u a l p r i c e s b o t h i n c l u d e a d i s c o u n t o f f " l i s t p r i c e s " :

- F e r r a n t i q u o t e 20% d i s c o u n t .

- CDC q u o t e 30% e d u c a t i o n a l d i s c o u n t , w i t h c e r t a i n r e s t r i c t i o n s on t h e u s e of t h e c o m p u t e r w h i c h w i l l n o t c a u s e d i f f i c u l t y i n p r a c t i c e .

CDC a l s o o f f e r t o buy 360 h o u r s of t i m e f o r t h e i r own u s e , s p r e a d o v e r t h r e e y e a r s .

d ) P r i c e s

( i ) I n i t i a l c a p i t a l c o s t

A t l a s I I : f o r d e l i v e r y by end May 1965, on p a y m e n t t e r m s a s i n c )

C o m p u t e r s y s t e m 1 7 . 6 5 M F r . T r a n s p o r t and i n s t a l l a t i o n 0 . 3 0

1 7 . 9 5 M F r .

D i s c o u n t f o r p a y m e n t by 31 D e c e m b e r , 1963 0 . 9 4

Net p r i c e 1 7 . 0 1 M F r .

CDC 6600 : f o r d e l i v e r y by end March 1965, on p a y m e n t t e r m s a s i n c )

C o m p u t e r s y s t e m 2 3 . 9 2 M F r . i n s t a l l e d T r a n s p o r t 0 . 0 8

2 4 . 0 0 M F r .

D i s c o u n t f o r p a y m e n t by 31 D e c e m b e r , 1963 1 . 7 9

Ne t p r i c e 2 2 . 2 1 M F r .

I f t h e i n t e r e s t r a t e w h i c h CERN w i l l h a v e t o p a y on b o r r o w e d c a p i t a l i s l e s s t h a n a b o u t 4%, a d v a n t a g e s h o u l d b e t a k e n of t h e d i s c o u n t f o r c a s h - w i t h - o r d e r , a n d t h e r e f o r e t h e p r i c e s a t 31 D e c e m b e r , 1963 are t h e b e s t b a s i s f o r c o m p a r i s o n .

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T h e s e p r i c e s c o m p a r e w i t h 19 .8 a n d 2 4 . 4 M Fr. r e s p e c t i v e l y i n t h e R e p o r t of t h e E u r o p e a n C o m m i t t e e , w h i c h , h o w e v e r , a s s u m e d f u l l p a y m e n t on d e l i v e r y .

( i i ) O p e r a t i n g c o s t s : m a i n t e n a n c e a n d b u y - b a c k

The manufacturers' offers included quotations for maintenance. It is proposed that CERN should take over the maintenance after two or three years. The cost of two years of 3-shift maintenance is a good indication of what will have to be paid in total. I n t h e c a s e of CDC, t h e o f f e r t o buy t i m e c a n a l s o be i n c l u d e d i n t h i s h e a d i n g .

Two y e a r s of 3 - s h i f t m a i n t e n a n c e :

A t l a s I I 2 . 6 1 M F r .

CDC 6600 1 .76 M F r .

l e s s t i m e s o l d t o CDC - 1 . 0 8 M F r .

( i i i ) V a l u e of p r o g r a m m i n g s u p p o r t

We e s t i m a t e t h e c o s t t o CERN of a s k i l l e d p r o g r a m m e r , i n c l u d i n g a s m a l l o v e r h e a d c o s t , t o be 45 000 F r . p e r m a n - y e a r .

At t h i s r a t e , t h e v a l u e of t h e p r o g r a m m i n g s u p p o r t o f f e r e d i s :

F e r r a n t i 8 m a n - y e a r s 0.36 M F r .

CDC 18 " " 0 . 8 1 M F r .

T h i s may i n f a c t be an u n d e r e s t i m a t e of t h e r e a l v a l u e t o CERN of t h i s s u p p o r t , g i v e n t h e d i f f i c u l t y of r e c r u i t i n g a n d t r a i n i n g programmers.

( i v ) Summary of p r i c e s i n m a n u f a c t u r e r s ' o f f e r s

A t l a s I I C a p i t a l c o s t 1 7 . 0 1 M F r . p l u s 2 - y e a r m a i n t e n a c e 2 . 6 1

1 9 . 6 2 M F r . l e s s v a l u e of s u p p o r t - 0 . 3 6

T o t a l 1 9 . 2 6 M F r .

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CDC 6600 C a p i t a l c o s t 2 2 . 2 1 M F r . p l u s 2 - y e a r m a i n t e n a c e 1.76

23 .97 M Fr. l e s s buy-back - 1.08

22 .89 M F r . l e s s v a l u e of s u p p o r t - 0 . 8 1

22 .08 M F r .

These p r i c e s pu t t h e two f i r m s on an equa l b a s i s so f a r a s payment d a t e s a r e conce rned and t a k e i n t o a c c o u n t e v e r y t h i n g due t o them - or from them - under t h e t e rms of t h e i r o f f e r , a p a r t from t e s t i n g t ime on o t h e r m a c h i n e s .

The f u l l c o s t t o CERN i n c l u d e s a l s o t h e i n t e r e s t on t h e money borrowed t o pay f o r t h e compute r , as w e l l a s a l l t h e o t h e r o p e r a t i n g e x p e n s e s . These a r e e s t i m a t e d i n t h e n e x t s e c t i o n s .

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4. Methods of financing

If money can be borrowed at a low rate of interest (less than about 4%), it is clear that the most economical way of purchasing the computer is to pay cash with the order. The amount required would then be 17.0 M Fr. for Atlas II and 22.1 M Fr. for CDC 6600.

The Finance Committee in its November meeting agreed that CERN should make a proposal for the most economical way of financing the purchase of a computer. We have explored several possibilities, and the best we can find would be a loan by the Swiss Confederation at a rate of 3¼% which is at the moment under discussion. This rate will be used in the budget tables which follow. We have been unable to obtain a rate lower than about 4¼% from other sources.

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5. Programme and budgetary implications

a) The central computer: comparison of Atlas II and CDC 6600.

The annual costs to CERN of a new computer as given in the Report are set out below, revised to take into account the new prices and maintenance costs, the interest charges on the unpaid balance of the loan, and also the cost in the beginning of 1965 of the IBM 7090 computer, which we assume we will keep for two months after the new machine is installed. The installation date for the Atlas is assumed to be 1st June 1965, and for the CDC 6600 1st April. An earlier date for the latter would seem to be possible for the manufacturer would be advantageous, but may not be possible for reasons of site preparation at CERN.

The costs of maintenance for the first two years are as now quoted, and for the CDC 6600 have been reduced in the table by the offered amount of buy-back. The other costs are as given in the Report.

Annual costs with Atlas II (M Fr.)

1965 1966 1967 1968 1969

Capital repayments 3.00 5.00 6.00 5.23 Transport 0.30 - - -Other Equipment 1.40 1.15 0.40 0.50 Next Staff 1.47 1.70 1.91 1.97 Computer

Operation and maintenance 2.80 1.91 1.40 1.60 IBM hire and additional computing capacity 1.61 - - 2 to 3

Total 10.58 9.76 9.71 11.3-12.3 ~ 12-?

Annual costs with CDC 6600 (M Fr.)

1965 1966 1967 1968 1969

Capital repayments 4.50 4.75 5.20 5.00 4.93 Transport 0.08 - - - -Other Equipment 1.60 2.00 1.60 0.50 0.50 Staff 1.63 1.91 2.13 2.27 2.38 Operation, maintenance and buy-back 1.84 1.09 1.60 1.80 1.85 IBM hire 1.15 - - - -

Total 10.80 9.75 10.53 9.57 9.66

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Difference in cost of other equipment, staff and operation between CDC 6600 and Atlas II

1965 1965 1967 1968 Total Difference in cost of other equipment, staff and operation between CDC 6600 and Atlas II

0.36 1.21 1.62 0.50 3.7 M Fr.

Atlas II CDC 6600 difference

Total cost over 4 years ~ 41.8 40.6 1.2 M Fr. Total cost over 5 years ~ 53.9 50.3 3.6 M Fr.

In comparing these costs, it must he understood that they correspond to two very different growth rates in computer use.

The CDC machine allows for the foreseen growth of computer use for at least four years ahead with little restriction, either in the total amount of data handled or in the peak loads involved in sharing between several users at one time. Its cost estimates include auxiliary equipment, such as data links and remote control stations, and operating costs on a scale appropriate to this rate of growth.

The programme assumed for the Atlas is for a considerably slower growth in output and in the number of simultaneous users. In the fourth year,it might be handling only one third the volume of data from half the number of users as would the CDC 6600. The cost of auxiliary equipment, staff and operation over four years is in consequence some 3.7 million Swiss francs less in the Atlas table than in the CDC 6600.

If the two computers are compared under conditions of similar development in use, then:

(i) To try and use Atlas with the growth rate foreseen for the CDC 6600 would imply introducing a large new machine already in 1968, and paying about 4 million Swiss francs for the missing auxilary equipment etc. during the four-year period. This, with the fourth year capital payment for Atlas and some overlap with the following machine, would cost at least 8-10 million Swiss francs above the costs shown for Atlas in 1968, or about 13 million Swiss francs more than for CDC 6600 over the five-year period.

(ii) If the demand for computing were, against our expectations, to be much slower in growth, so as not to overload Atlas before 1968, then the cost of the CDC 6600 could be reduced by about 4 million Swiss francs over the four years by using only the amount of auxiliary equipment etc. foreseen for Atlas.

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The total cost for CDC 6600 over four years would then be 5 million Swiss francs less than that for Atlas II. In addition, the CDC 6600 would have enough capacity to support this slow growth of use for at least a further two years, and at less cost than the machine which would unavoidably replace Atlas by then.

Computing Costs in M Fr.

Atlas II CDC 6600 1965-1968 1965-1969 1965-1968 1965-1969

Fast development ~51 ~63 40.6 50.3 Slow development 41.8 53.9 ~37 ~46

This conclusion, that the CDC 6600 will generally work out appreciably cheaper over a period of four or five years,is not surprising in view of the fact that its cost per unit of computation is only one third of that of Atlas.

b) Complementary small computers

The Report of the European Committee explained that most on-line applications would require a small computer close to the experimental equipment to act as a buffer and to preprocess the raw data before it was sent to the central computer for the main job of calculation. The report assumes that 6 such computers will be bought by 1967, each costing between 0.5 and 1 million francs. This programme contributes 2-2.5 million francs per year to the total computing cost. The results of the recent studies of on-line applications suggest that, for the CDC 6600, there may not be a need for so many or such expensive small computers in the first few years, since the central computer has very large input-output capacity compared with the needs of experiments.

With the Atlas II, the likely shortage of computing capacity in 1967 will probably make it necessary to retain, or even increase, the money for small computers, as one way of making up for the inadequacy

of the central machine. This point was foreseen in the report -we would merely confirm it now.

c). Consequences for the CERN budget as a whole

The cost projections in CERN/FC/645 "Provisional Estimates for 1965-1967" contain computer costs based on the data contained in the Report: the only changes were to redistribute the capital repayments slightly to avoid too sudden a jump in costs in 1965, and to slow down slightly the expenditure on small computers.

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Because the reduction in prices largely offsets the interest costs which were not included in the data in the Report, the picture given in CERN/FC/645 is still valid: as is explained there, the proposed budgets for 1965 and 1966, which are in line with the recommendations of the Bannier report, will allow the increased cost of computing, though this will consequently permit only a slow growth in money for other experimental techniques during that period.

At the moment, inadequate data analysis is the main technical restriction on the output of physics from CERN, and we feel that money in the near future should be concentrated on getting more physics results out of the existing beams faster than in the past, rather than on a large increase in the scale of the experimental programme.

If the future budgets granted to CERN should be much less than those proposed in CERN/FC/645, the whole style of physics in CERN would be changed: it could then be asked whether one of the smaller computers - CDC 3600 or a small Atlas II, or even the IBM 7094 II - would not be the proper solution for a limited period.

As we explained above, the estimates for the CDC 6600. contain about 4 million francs for auxiliary equipment etc. which could be omitted or delayed if a reduced use of the computer was foreseen in, say, the first two years. To this could be added a further saving of 2 million francs on small computers in this period, made possible because of the powerful input-output facilities of the CDC 6600. The total computing costs for 1965-1966 with the CDC 6600 could consequently be reduced by 3 million francs/year (and,if necessary,even more by a small readjustment of the repayment of capital). Such a reduction would bring the annual cost down very hear to that of one of the smaller machines, while still keeping available the full power of a big one for the remaining users.

A 3 million francs/year reduction in computing costs, taken with corresponding cuts in other parts of the CERN programme, would lead to budgets below even the most pessimistic forecasts, so it appears that the very low cost/capacity ratio of the CDC 6600 makes it the preferred choice even if a further slowing down in budget growth is forced on us.

d) Miscellaneous financial points

(i) Sale of computer time to other users.

Apart from the definite offer by CDC to buy back time, we have not taken this possible source of earnings into account. A time-sharing computer with excess capacity is well suited to selling time to outside customers. Such time will be available at a reasonable cost to laboratories in Member States who are not adequately equipped themselves.

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The sale of 10% of computer time on this basis would bring in 1 million francs/year. Sales to commercial users would imply that otherwise unwanted time was available. This would probably be the case with the CDC 6600 for several years, but less so for the Atlas.

(ii) Resale value of computers.

Rapidly developing equipment like computers has rather small resale value, especially after some years of use. It has been assumed to be zero for the present estimates.

(iii) Possible difficulties in the fifth year with the CDC 6600.

If the development of computer use in CERN goes even better than we predict, it is conceivable that the CDC 6600 would be saturated before 1969, and the remaining instalment of capital repayment would be an obstacle to acquiring its successor in that year. This situation seems to imply either a large outside user, e.g. in a storage ring programme, who would in any case be paying for the time, or a more flourishing

experimental programme than we now imagine. In either case the budgets are likely to be large enough so that, given due notice, most of the 5 million franc instalment for 1969 could be paid off in advance in 1967-1968. The resale value of the machine in its fourth year could also be offset against the last repayment. Otherwise, the only reason for wishing to stop the use of the CDC 6600 before saturation is reached would be the arrival on the market of a larger machine with a definitely better cost/capacity ratio or some revolutionary advance in technique. We have no information to show that such a machine could exist much before 1967, and if one appeared after that date it would be better on balance to stay with the CDC 6600 until it had been fully paid for. We should try to stay at least four years, and preferably five, with one computer to reap the advantages of stability of the basic equipment in helping the development of techniques, even at a small extra cost for a year or so.

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6. Conclusion

( i ) With the assistance of the Finance Committee, the Director-General set up early in 1963 a European Committee to study with CERN participation the future computing needs of the Laboratory.

( i i ) This Committee, after very thorough study, concluded that CERN needs a very considerable increase in its total computing capacity of a kind which implies a large timesharing computer, associated, where necessary, with small peripheral computers. It found that the only suitable and available central computer was the CDC 6600 and recommended that CERN places an order to have such a machine installed early in 1965.

( i i i ) We have made further studies on the basis of the Committee's Report and confirm its conclusions, both of the need for a computer of this kind and of the unique suitability of the CDC 6600 for the job.

(iv) We have received offers from the manufacturers for the CDC 6600 and for other machines, including the Ferranti Atlas II, which is the only other large time-sharing machine available.

(v) We confirm the judgement of the European Committee that the absolute capacity of the Atlas II is insufficient to meet the long-term needs of CERN as they were foreseen by the Committee and as they appear from our own studies. The Atlas II would begin to be saturated after about two years of use and would require considerable and expensive extra backing-up capasity in its fourth year. Even so, the Atlas II could only serve about half the foreseen number of on-line users.

(vi) We have made a financial comparison of the two computers, which shows that over a period of four or five years, and for either a fast or a slow growth in computer use in CERN, the CDC 6600 always shows an economy in the range of 5 to 15 million Swiss francs compared with the Atlas II. This can be attributed to the fact that it is four times as powerful as Atlas II, but only costs about 25% more, i.e. has a cost/capacity ratio three times as high.

(vii) We have studied three questions put to us by the European Committee on:

- the detailed adequacy of the CDC 6600 for our on-line applications,

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- the amount of support we can expect from the manufacturer in bringing the computer rapidly into operation, - the implications of its purchase on collaboration with other laboratories.

On the first, the studies mentioned earlier confirmed the Committee's favourable judgement and uncovered no basic difficulties in the use of the CDC 6600 for on-line work.

On the second, we have the offer of 18 man-years of programming support from CDC, which should be enough to work out the systems programmes in collaboration with CERN staff in reasonable time.

On the third, we see no reason why the use of the CDC 6600 in CERN should hinder the writing of general purpose data analysis programmes in a form suitable for use by other laboratories; in addition, the power of the computer should encourage new developments in CERN, both by our own staff and by visitors in many fields of high-energy physics, which can be adapted by other laboratories to their own special needs. It is not our intention that the new computer should be an excuse to centralize physics in CERN;on the contrary, it is the development of data handling techniques which permits a large part of the experiments run at the CERN accelerators to be carried out and analysed by visitors based at other laboratories.

(viii) We have considered the effect on the CERN budget as a whole of buying the CDC 6600 and conclude that the computer will not take an undue share of our likely resources, in view of its great importance in the conduct of research. The cost in the next few years can be adjusted to match the size of the total budget and the intensity of the experimental programme.

(ix) In view of these conclusions, and of the work of the European Committee which lies behind them, we ask the Finance Committee for authority to enter into detailed negotiations with CDC for the purchase of a CDC 6600 computer and peripheral equipment according to the terms of their offer of 15 November, 1963, for delivery around the beginning of 1965.

(ix)

We further ask the Finance Committee for their agreement to our continuing negotiations with the Swiss Confederation for the purpose of raising the necessary money in the form of a loan to be repaid in instalments over a period of five years, and to take what other steps may be necessary in this connection. The terms of the loan will be submitted

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to the Finance Committee for approval in detail as soon as they are ready.

(x) In considering these requests, we would ask the Finance Committee to bear in mind that the role of a large computer in CERN is analogous to that of an accelerator: it is a part of the capital equipment common to almost all experiments and,like the PS,can contribute greatly by its versatility and reserves of power to the success of the experimental programme. The same principles which were used with such success in fixing the design of the PS, of always seeking the perfect solution to technical problems and of specifying large margins of safety, should also be applied in choosing a computer. In this case, a powerful and flexible computing system with reserves for unexpected uses can greatly increase the amount of physics done in CERN without demanding large increases in the experimental equipment and facilities. The latter are already worth about 200 million Swiss francs; the amounts so far spent on data analysis, which have made the whole of bubble chamber physics possible, have been very small in comparison. The next step forward in experimental technique -of dealing with events in the quantities produced in counter experiments, but with the detail only obtainable till now in bubble chambers - can be taken in the next few years with modern computers. The success of our steps in this direction will depend on having a computer chosen by the same principles as we used to build the PS.

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CERN/FC/661 ANNEX

SUMMARY OF PRICES AND CONDITIONS

1. Large time-sharing computer

CDC 6600 Price, including installation and educational discount of 30%

23 923 780 Sw.Fr. CDC 6600

Transport estimated (Real cost will be charged)

80 000

CDC 6600

Less offer to buy back time - 1 080 000

CDC 6600

Programming support in 1964-65 18 man-years

CDC 6600

Maintenance 1 shift 490 000 Fr./year

CDC 6600

2 shifts 686 000 "

CDC 6600

3 shifts 882 360 " Payment terms: full payment within 30 days of

installation; Payment terms:

delayed or advanced payments can be arranged on the basis of 6% interest per annum.

Installation date - earliest; end October 1964 for order by 20 December, 1963; end March 1965 for letter.of intent by end December 1963 and order by end February 1964.

Ferranti-ICT, Atlas II Price, including discount of 20%

17 650 000 Sw.Fr. Ferranti-ICT, Atlas II

Transport and installation 300 000

Ferranti-ICT, Atlas II

Programming support in 1964-65 8 man-years

Ferranti-ICT, Atlas II

Maintenance: 1 shift 677 050 Fr./year

Ferranti-ICT, Atlas II

2 shifts 991 400 "

Ferranti-ICT, Atlas II

3 shifts 1 305 750 " Payment terms: 20% with order Payment terms:

70% on delivery Payment terms:

5% on handing-over

Payment terms:

5% after a period of running,

Payment terms:

delayed payments can be arranged on the basis of 6% interest per annum;

for payment with order, a reduction of 940 000 Sw.Fr.

Installation date - end May 1965: offer valid till end December 1963.

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2. Batch processing system

CDC did not change their offer of a CDC 3600 from that made in August 1963 to the original specification.

Perranti-ICT submitted a modified offer, for a computer with 2.5 µs core store instead of the 5 µs core proposed in August. This increases the price but improves the performance and makes the machine expandable to the larger version described above. These changes mean that the technical data in the Report of the European Committee no longer apply. The estimated throughput is 3 times that of IBM 7090 in place of 2.5 times.

CDC 3600 (original offer)

Price (including discount)

11 200 000 Sw.Fr. CDC 3600 (original offer)

Transport (estimated) 60 000

CDC 3600 (original offer)

Maintenance 3 shifts 850 000 Fr./year

CDC 3600 (original offer)

Delivery: 9 months from order Atlas II Price 12 800 000 Sw.Fr. Atlas II

(including discount) Atlas II

Transport and installation 242 000

Atlas II

Programming support 3½ man-years

Atlas II

Maintenance 3 shifts 1 069 050 Fr./year

Atlas II

Installation date: end May 1965.

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