Market Analysis:

Cruise Line Industry

Katie Steyn

Final Project

AN14, General Assembly

Key Objectives

• What specs should we offer? • Ship size (Capacity)

• Departure port

• Destination (Itinerary)

• Voyage length

• Should we enter the market? • Achieving high occupancy levels

• Profitability

Market OverviewWorldwide market estimated at $34.6 billion

Direct spending by passengers and crew at all cruise ports in the world estimated at $17.5 billion

OUR DATA:• 145 Vessels• 20 Cruise Lines• 9 year period (2004 – 2012)• 83.7 million passengers

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Source: http://www.marad.dot.gov/resources/data-statistics/#Cruise

Fleet Overview

LineFleet size

Average Ship Capacity

Carnival Cruise Line 26 2281Royal Caribbean International 24 2569

Princess Cruises 18 2411

Norwegian Cruise Line 17 2062Holland America Line 15 1529

Celebrity Cruise Line 13 1947Costa Cruise Line 5 2232

Cunard Line 5 2488Disney Cruise Line 4 1826

MSC Italian Cruises 4 1988Regent Seven Seas Cruises 4 570Seabourn Cruise Line 4 227

Silversea Cruises 4 362Crystal Cruises 3 970

AIDA Cruise Line 2 1481Azamara Club Cruises 2 694Fred Olsen Cruise Line 2 1100

Oceania Cruises 2 769SeaDream Yacht Club 2 110

Windstar Cruises 2 176

Competitive Landscape

CCL

•Carnival

•Holland America Line

•Cunard

•AIDA

•Costa

• Ibero

•P&O

•P&O Australia

•Princess

•Seabourn

RCI

•Royal Caribbean International

•Celebrity

•Pullmantur

•Azamara Club

•CDF Croisièresde France

NCL

•Norwegian Cruise Line

Other

•Disney Cruise Line

•Crystal Cruises

•Fred Olsen Cruise Line

•MSC Italian Cruises

•Oceania

•Regent Seven Seas

•SeaDream Yacht Club

•Silversea Cruises

•Windstar Cruises

Market Share by Passengers

Source: http://www.cruisemapper.com/wiki/749-largest-cruise-line-companies

Supply- By Cruise Line, by Year

*Q1 2012 sailings omitted

Supply- by Voyage Length

3280

9349

16685

3305 3199

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Voyage Length

Min 1 nightMax 70 nightsAverage 7 nightsMode 7 nights

VOYAGE LENGTH BY CRUISE LINEMin Nights Max Nights Average Nights

Fred Olsen Cruise Line 7 27 14.64

Oceania Cruises 3 27 13.39Crystal Cruises 6 35 11.59

Seabourn Cruise Line 3 31 11.24Azamara Club Cruises 2 18 11.00AIDA Cruise Line 4 23 10.08

Silversea Cruises 4 22 9.82MSC Italian Cruises 2 18 9.42

Holland America Line 1 70 8.98Cunard Line 3 28 8.87Princess Cruises 1 45 8.79

Regent Seven Seas Cruises 3 27 8.78Celebrity Cruise Line 2 18 8.42

Costa Cruise Line 2 18 8.16Windstar Cruises 6 15 7.58SeaDream Yacht Club 2 15 7.17

Norwegian Cruise Line 1 23 7.04Royal Caribbean International 2 18 5.97

Carnival Cruise Line 2 18 5.44Disney Cruise Line 2 15 4.79

Occupancy AchievementStandard Occupancy: 2 guests per stateroom

Average Occupancy rates-by cruise line

• Profitability of children

• Customer experience versus occupancy

• Operating costs for smaller vessels

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Occupancy Rate

Occupancy rates by cruise line- Year over YearCruise Line 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Trend

AIDA Cruise Line 0.97 1.03 1.02 1.02 1.00

Azamara Club Cruises 0.97 0.93 0.95 0.84 0.85 0.88

Carnival Cruise Line 1.13 1.14 1.13 1.13 1.14 1.15 1.16 1.19 1.17

Celebrity Cruise Line 1.03 1.05 1.05 1.04 1.05 1.05 1.05 1.05 1.04

Costa Cruise Line 0.99 1.05 1.05 1.01 0.98 1.06 1.03 1.08 1.02

Crystal Cruises 0.61 0.77 0.80 0.78 0.74 0.63 0.76 0.71 0.75

Cunard Line 0.94 0.94 0.92 0.96 0.96 0.93 0.93 0.95 0.95

Disney Cruise Line 1.49 1.51 1.46 1.49 1.49 1.48 1.48 1.45 1.49

Fred Olsen Cruise Line 0.94 0.97 0.96

Holland America Line 1.00 1.00 1.02 1.01 1.02 1.03 1.03 1.02 1.00

MSC Italian Cruises 0.97 0.88 0.89 1.03 1.07 1.03 1.01 1.04 1.01

Norwegian Cruise Line 1.06 1.06 1.05 1.08 1.07 1.11 1.11 1.10 1.09

Oceania Cruises 0.79 0.86 0.90 0.97 0.95 0.91 0.98 0.92 0.92

Princess Cruises 1.04 1.04 1.03 1.03 1.03 1.02 1.02 1.02 0.99

Regent Seven Seas Cruises 0.80 0.86 0.85 0.86 0.86 0.91 0.94 0.98 0.98

Royal Caribbean International 1.07 1.08 1.09 1.09 1.09 1.07 1.08 1.08 1.09

Seabourn Cruise Line 0.87 0.87 0.91 0.88 0.90 0.84 0.87 0.95 0.89

SeaDream Yacht Club 0.72 0.81 0.87 0.90 0.89 0.86 0.77 0.78 0.83

Silversea Cruises 0.87 0.87 0.92 0.86 0.84 0.79 0.87 0.83 0.84

Windstar Cruises 0.80 0.89 0.93 0.95 0.85 0.86

Voyage Destination – Supply v. Demand

Destination Occupancy Rate

Bahamas 1.17Mexico (Pacific) 1.12Western Caribbean 1.12

Bermuda 1.10Eastern Caribbean 1.10

Alaska 1.07Nowhere 1.05Canada/New England 1.05

Southern Caribbean 1.04Hawaii 1.03

Pacific Coast 0.99Trans-Panama Canal 0.96Transatlantic 0.92

South America 0.90South Pacific/Far East 0.88

Eastern Caribbean: As far South as St. Martin, as far west as Haiti. Southern Caribbean: South of St. Martin to northern coast of South America as far as Aruba.Western Caribbean: West of Haiti, includes ports in Mexico, Central America and Columbia.Nowhere: Cruises that begin and end at the same port with no intervening calls.

Occupancy Rates by Destination- Year over Year

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Departure Port – Supply v. DemandDeparture Port Occupancy Rate Departure Port Occupancy Rate

Port Canaveral 1.21 Montreal 0.97

Long Beach 1.17 Quebec City 0.97

Mobile 1.16 Halifax 0.95

Jacksonville 1.15 Philipsburg 0.93

New Orleans 1.13 Gloucester 0.92

Galveston 1.13 Cozumel 0.91

Tampa 1.12 Bridgetown 0.90

Charleston 1.12 St. Martin 0.88

Gulfport 1.11 Charlotte Amalie 0.85

Miami 1.11 Curacao 0.84

Baltimore 1.11 Anchorage 0.80

New York 1.09 St. John's 0.72

Seattle 1.09 West Palm Beach 0.58

Cape Liberty 1.09 Freeport 0.52

Los Angeles 1.08

San Juan 1.07

Boston 1.07

San Diego 1.07

Houston 1.06

Vancouver (CN) 1.05

Whittier 1.04

Norfolk 1.04

Fort Lauderdale 1.04

Honolulu 1.04

Seward 1.03

Philadelphia 1.03

St. John's (CN) 1.03

San Francisco 1.01

Capacity assumes 2 guests per stateroom

Key Objectives: Specs

• Ship size• Large (2000+)

• Departure port• Northeast• New Orleans• Texas• West Coast

• Destination (Itinerary)• Bahamas• Mexico• Alaska• Nowhere

• Voyage length • 7 days or less

Key Objectives: Should we enter the market?

• Achieving high occupancy levels• Yes, when following suggested specs

• Profitability• Additional data set(s) required

• Average per passenger per day is projected to be $200.85• $152.39 ticket price

• $48.47 on board spending

Source: http://www.cruisemarketwatch.com/articles/cruise-market-watch-announces-2013-cruise-trends-forecast/

Thank You! Questions?