field planning slides
DESCRIPTION
Powerpoint slides from Saturday morning sessionTRANSCRIPT
Field Planning
Paid for by Democracy for America, www.democracyforamerica.com,
and not authorized by any candidate or candidate’s
committee.
2
Your Blueprint for Victory
Contains your campaign’s Goals, Strategies, Tactics, Timelines, and Benchmarks to achieve them.
Person to person voter contactDelivers a campaign’s message to
targeted voters
Tactics: Canvass, phone calls, house parties, mail literature drops, etc.
Requires a grassroots volunteer base
A strong FieldOrganization can help
you gain between 3-5%on election day.
3
Targeting Your Resources
Why target?
Limited People, Money & TimeGets the right message to the right voters
3 Ways to Target Voters
GeographicallyVoter History & IdentificationConstituencies & Demographics
Research Suggestions• Secretary of State • County Elections Board• Party Voter File • NCEC• US Census data
4
Targeting with Voter History
Voter Contact PrioritiesA. Undecideds likely to Vote
(ID, Persuasion)
B. Supporters less likely to vote
(ID, GOTV)
C. Undecideds less likely to vote
(ID, Persuasion, GOTV)
D. Supporters likely to vote
(Base building)
FEENever Vote
(0x4)
FC
Persuasion #2
B
Sometimes Vote (2x4)(0x0)
FAPersuasion
DBase
Always Vote (4x4)
Strong Opponent
(5)
Undecided (2, 3, 4)
Strong Supporter
(1)
Partisanship ID
Vot
ing
His
tory
Targeted Field PlanAll Registered Voters
Target Universe of Voters
Supporters (1’s) Undecided (2,3’s) Haters (4,5’s)
Persuasion (2,3,4’s)
GOTV Universe
Likely Supporters Not ID’d
No More Contact
5
Step 1: Project the turnout:
Win Number = (Projected Turnout / 2) + 1Vote Goal = Projected Turnout x .52
Step 2: Set Your Goals
Step 3: Write them down!
% Turnout in last similar election(s)
Current number of registered votersx
Projected
Turnout=
What’s Your Win Number?
Calculate Your Vote Goals
Current Registrati
on
Turnout % in last similar election
Turnout Estimate
for current
election
Win
Number 50% +
1
Safe Margin 52%
Precinct # 1 740 32%
Precinct # 2 446 55%
Precinct # 3 463 51%
Precinct # 4 599 43%
Precinct # 5 686 42%
Precinct # 6 1002 48%
DistrictTotals
3936 44%
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237
246
237
258
289
481
1748
120 124
124 128
120 124
130 135
146 151
242 251
882 913
NOTE: Always round up for turnout estimates – even with “.1” You’ll always need a full person’s vote – a fraction of a person can’t vote. It’s safer to make it harder on yourself.
7
Democratic Performance Index‘Percentage of the vote a Democratic candidate can expect in an average election’
Based on voting history NOT voter registration
How to calculate D.P.I
About NCEC
Democratic % in similar election # 1
+ Democratic % in similar election # 2
+ Democratic % in similar election # 3
/ 3 = D.P.I.{ }
D.P.I. %
Est. Dem. Turnout
Vote Difference
Persuasion %
Persuadable Voters
Precinct # 1
69% 12%
Precinct # 2
21% 8%
Precinct # 3
36% 33%
Precinct # 4
43% 19%
Precinct # 5
38% 39%
Precinct # 6 48% 21%
DistrictTotals
43% 22%
Calculate Your Dem & Persuasion Turnout
163 +39 28
-77 19
-39 78
-25 49-42 112
-21 101
-165 382
51
85
110109
230
748
NOTE: You’ll want to round down for Est. Dem turnout and persuadable voters. Again, you want to make it harder on yourself.
Final Vote GoalsPersuasion
& ID Ranking
GOTV Ranking
Precinct # 1
Precinct # 2
Precinct # 3
Precinct # 4
Precinct # 5
Precinct # 6
DistrictTotals
Calculate Your Final Vote Goals & Rankings
198
54
109
121
147
284
913
2nd
1st
3rd
4th
5th
6th
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
5th
6th
10
Prioritize Your Precincts
DEM BASE PRECINCTS- D.P.I. = greater than 65%- Identification, voter registration, volunteer recruitment, GOTV
REPUBLICAN BASE PRECINCTS- D.P.I. = less than 35%- Lowest priority, highly targeted contact only
SWING PRECINCTS - D.P.I. = between 35% and 65%- Identification, Persuasion & GOTV
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Look at your candidate and message
Look at your identified supporters
Meet with community leaders early
Build bases of support
Seek endorsements
Target niche media
Targeting with Constituencies
12
Conversations win Elections
Phone Calls & Canvassing:Deliver a campaign’s message to targeted voters in a personable way
Give the campaign valuable information about the voter’s preferences Allow for a targeted field campaign
Yard signs belong in Yards, NOT street corners
Voter Preference Targeting
13
CanvassingKnow your turf
Prepare your canvassPackets
Train your volunteers•Provide ‘context’•Explain the Canvass Packet Materials•Review scripts, responses and coding•Role Plays!
Sample Canvass Packet• Scripts • Walksheets • Maps• Campaign Lit• Candidate FAQ• Goodie bags (food, water, stickers, etc)
14
PhonebanksYour most versatile voter contact tactic
High number of contactsTwo way communication
Ideal for voter identification, persuasion, & GOTV
Drawbacks:Lower impact than canvassingIncreasingly difficult to reach voters
15
Direct MailHighly targeted persuasion & GOTV tactic
Once you start, you cannot go dark
Stick with an interesting & repetitive message
Know your production, shipping & delivery timelines
Drawbacks:
Lower impact than canvass, phonesNo info back from voters Expensive
16
Yard Signs and Visibility
Shows supporters and donors your support baseReminds supporters of their supportNo more than 1% of budget spent on visibility
Drawbacks: Signs don’t vote Often overemphasized at expense of more effective tactics
14
Timelines & Benchmarks
Start from your goal (Election Day) and plan backwards - how do you get there?
Identify Your Timeline and Strategies
List your tactics & set benchmarks
Revise and Update
14
Benchmarks & MetricsIdentify Your Key Metrics # of voters contacted # of supporters identified # of early vote applications (if applicable)
Identify Your Contact Metrics - % of attempts with contacts (50% standard) - # of calls/doors per hour (10-15 standard) - % of Supporters / Undecideds / Opposes (30% / 40% / 30% standard)
Stick with numbers – Can you reach your goals?
Your early warning system – Are you on track?