fia–phase 3 financial a · - draft - - confidential - fia–p. hase. 3 . f. iscal and. f....
TRANSCRIPT
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- DRAFT -- Confidential -
FIA–PHASE 3 FISCAL AND FINANCIAL ANALYSIS
New Jersey Highlands Water Protection and Planning CouncilJuly 21, 2016
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AGENDA
• Statistical Significance+ What does statistically significant mean?
• Phase 1 and 2 Recap+ What did previous phases conclude?
Phase 3
• Municipal Revenues+ Equalized property values, assessed property values,
and municipal property tax revenues
• 10-Year Cash Flow
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FISCAL IMPACT ASSESSMENT
• Phase 1: Regional Economic Evaluation
• Phase 2: Demographic and Real Estate Analysis
• Phase 3: Fiscal and Financial Analysis
• Final Fiscal Impact Assessment Report
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STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE
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EXAMPLE OF VARIABILITY IN THE DATA
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
1 2 3 4 5
Blue Team Red Team
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FREQUENCY OF DATA
0
5
10
15
20
25
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Num
ber o
f Gro
up M
embe
rs
Magnitude of Change from Period 1 to 2
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FREQUENCY OF DATA
0
5
10
15
20
25
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Num
ber o
f Gro
up M
embe
rs
Magnitude of Change from Period 2 to 3
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95% CONFIDENCE INTERVAL
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
1 2 3 4
Blue Team Red Team
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PHASE 1 AND 2 RECAP
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NEW JERSEY AREA FINDINGS
• The Highlands Region had a higher employment growth rate from 2004 to 2008, and less job loss from 2008 to 2013.
• Within the Highlands Region, the Preservation Area was the only area with negative job growth rate from 2004 to 2008; It also had the highest job loss rate from 2008 to 2013. The conforming Highlands Centers generated the highest employment growth rates from 2004 to 2008 and from 2008 to 2013.
Data Source: These findings were based on analysis of the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) confidential employment data.
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ANNUAL RATE OF EMPLOYMENT CHANGE
-5%
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Highlands Region 18-County Interstate Region19-County Interstate Region
Data Source: These findings were based on analysis of employment data from the US Census Bureau’s LEHD Program.
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OVERALL PHASE 1 FINDINGS
Based on the data available at this point in time, the employment analysis revealed no statistically significant basis to conclude that the Act or the RMP had a positive or negative impact on economic growth in the Highlands Region.
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RESIDENTIAL BUILDING PERMITSBuilding Permits by Type of Housing, Northern New Jersey
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Multifamily Housing Single-family Housing
Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau.
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HOUSING CONSTRUCTION FINDINGS
• In each of the three New Jersey comparison regions, the number of building permits issued for single-family housing has been declining since 1998/2000.
• In Northern New Jersey, especially in the areas east of the Highlands Region, growth in housing construction has been in multifamily housing, which accounted for 75 percent of Northern New Jersey building permits in 2014.
• The Highlands Region is not benefitting from the regional market demand for multifamily housing.
Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau.
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DEMOGRAPHIC FINDINGS
• Generally, the Highlands Region municipalities are following similar demographic trends to the municipalities in the comparison regions.+ Households: number, size, and type+ Population: number, age, race/ethnicity+ Other: education, income
• However, where the Highlands Region is different is:+ It is getting older, faster+ There are fewer children+ Households are getting smaller
Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau.
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OVERALL PHASE 2 FINDINGS
• The analysis finds that any differences at this point in time between the Highlands Region and the other comparison areas in New Jersey for average sales values for residential, commercial, industrial, farmland, and vacant property are not statistically significant.
• However, there could be a difference in the sales value per acre for vacant land, and the Council should continue to track and monitor this issue.
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Phase 3MUNICIPAL REVENUES
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FISCAL ANALYSIS
• Equalized Property Value+ An estimate of total market value
• Real Property Assessed Value+ The basis for property taxes
• Property Tax Revenue+ The primary source of funds for locally-provided public
facilities and services
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CHANGE IN TOTAL EQUALIZED VALUE
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
2000/01
2001/02
2002/03
2003/04
2004/05
2005/06
2006/07
2007/08
2008/09
2009/10
2010/11
2011/12
2012/13
2013/14
2014/15
Highland Region
Highlands County Municipalities not in the Highlands Region
Northern New Jersey (ex. Highlands Region)Data Source: NJ Department of Treasury.
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AVERAGE MUNICIPAL CHANGE IN EQUALIZED VALUE
Data Source: NJ Department of Treasury.
-4%
0%
4%
8%
12%
2000 to2004
2004 to2008
2008 to2015
Highlands RegionHighlands County Municipalities not in the Highlands Region
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AVERAGE MUNICIPAL CHANGE IN EQUALIZED VALUE
Data Source: NJ Department of Treasury.
-4%
0%
4%
8%
12%
2000 to2004
2004 to2008
2008 to2015
Highlands RegionNorthern New Jersey (Excluding Highlands Region)
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TOTAL REAL PROPERTY ASSESSED VALUE
0
50,000,000,000
100,000,000,000
150,000,000,000
200,000,000,000
250,000,000,000
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Highlands RegionHighlands County Municipalities not in the Highlands RegionNorthern New Jersey (ex. Highlands Counties)
Data Source: NJ Department of Treasury.
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RESIDENTIAL BUILDING PERMITSBuilding Permits by Type of Housing, Northern New Jersey
0
4,000
8,000
12,000
16,000
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Multifamily Housing Single-family Housing
Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau.
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REAL PER HOUSEHOLD ASSESSED VALUE
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
2000
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014In
flatio
n Ad
just
ed 2
016
Dolla
rs
Highlands RegionHighlands County Municipalities Not in the Highlands RegionNorthern New Jersey
Data Source: NJ Department of Treasury.
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CHANGE IN REAL PROPERTY ASSESSED VALUE
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
2000/01 2002/03 2004/05 2006/07 2008/09 2010/11 2012/13 2014/15
Highland RegionHighlands County Municipalities not in the Highlands RegionNorthern New Jersey (ex. Highlands Region)
Data Source: NJ Department of Treasury.
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CHANGE IN REAL PROPERTY ASSESSED VALUE
Data Source: NJ Department of Treasury.
Annualized Rate of Change, Average for Municipalities in Each Region
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
2000 to2004
2004 to2008
2008 to2015
Highlands RegionHighlands County Municipalities not in the Highlands Region
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CHANGE IN REAL PROPERTY ASSESSED VALUE
Data Source: NJ Department of Treasury.
Annualized Rate of Change, Average for Municipalities in Each Region
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
2000 to2004
2004 to2008
2008 to2015
Highlands RegionNorthern New Jersey (Excluding Highlands Region)
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PROPERTY TAX REVENUE
• Tax rate applied to assessed value
• Tax rate adjusted to generate budget revenue needs, less other revenue sources
• Annual budget increase limited to 2%
• Analysis uses inflation-adjusted per household property tax revenues
• Availability of household data limits the time periods that can be analyzed
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CHANGE IN PROPERTY TAX REVENUE
Data Source: NJ Department of Treasury; U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis; U.S. Census Bureau.
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
2000 to 2010 2010 to 2015
Highlands RegionHighlands County Municipalities not in the Highlands Region
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CHANGE IN PROPERTY TAX REVENUE
Data Source: NJ Department of Treasury; U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis; U.S. Census Bureau.
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
2000 to 2010 2010 to 2015
Highlands RegionNorthern New Jersey (Excluding Highlands Region)
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Phase 310-YEAR CASH FLOW
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HIGHLANDS PROTECTION FUND
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16
$ M
illio
ns
Nominal Dollars Real 2016 DollarsData Source: Budget of the State of New Jersey data, provided by the NJ Highlands Council.
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WATERSHED MORATORIUM OFFSET AID
Data Source: Budget of the State of New Jersey data, provided by the NJ Highlands Council.
39 Municipalities not in the Highlands Region receive 17% of the funds
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Phase 3FINDINGS
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EQUALIZED PROPERTY VALUES | MARKET VALUE
2000–2004 The analysis finds the Highlands Region had• No statistically significant difference with the two
comparison regions2004–2008 The analysis finds the Highlands Region had• No statistically significant difference with the Highlands
county municipalities not in the Highlands Region• A statistically significant lower growth rate than
Northern New Jersey2008–2015 The analysis finds the Highlands Region had:• A statistically significant lower rate of growth than the
two comparison regions
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REAL PROPERTY ASSESSED VALUE
• 2000–2004 The analysis finds that the Highlands Region had a statistically significant higher rate of growth in assessed values than the two comparison regions
• 2004–2008 The analysis finds that the Highlands Region had no statistically significant difference in the rate of growth than the two comparison regions
• 2008–2015 The analysis finds that the Highlands Region had a lower rate of growth than the two comparison regions. Only the difference between the Highlands Region and Northern New Jersey was statistically significant
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PROPERTY TAX REVENUES
2000–2010 and 2010–2015 The analysis finds that the Highlands Region municipalities had no statistically significant difference in the rate of change in property tax revenues than the two comparison regions.
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NEXT STEPS
• Continue to monitor differences in equalized property values in Highlands and Non-Highlands municipalities
• As a secondary indicator, monitor real property assessed values and property tax revenues