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•Daily Operations Briefing Monday, October 14, 2013

8:30 a.m. EDT

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Significant Activity: Oct 13 – 14 Significant Events: None

Tropical Activity:

• Atlantic – Area 1 (Low near 0%)

• Eastern Pacific – Tropical Storm Octave; Tropical Storm Priscilla

• Central Pacific – No tropical cyclones expected through Tuesday evening

• Western Pacific – No tropical activity threatening U.S. territories

Significant Weather:

• Severe thunderstorms possible - Central Plains

• Rain & thunderstorms – Southern/Northern Plains to Lower/Middle Mississippi Valley

• Heavy rain with flash flooding possible – Southern Plains; Northern Plains & Upper Mississippi Valley

• Heavy snow possible – Central/Northern Rockies & High Plains

• Critical Fire Weather Areas / Red Flag Warnings: None

• Space Weather: Past 24 hours – no activity observed; next 24 hours – no activity predicted

Earthquake/Volcanic Activity: Veniaminof Volcano – Alaskan Peninsula

Declaration Activity: None

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Updates at 2:00 am/pm and 8:00 am/pm EDT

Atlantic – Tropical Outlook

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Atlantic – Area 1 (Invest 98L) As of 8:00 a.m. EDT

• Disorganized showers & thunderstorms several hundred

miles E of Lesser Antilles

• Moving WNW at 10 mph

• Strong upper-level winds expected to prevent significant

development over next several days

• Probability of tropical cyclone development:

• Next 48 hours: Low chance (near 0%)

• Next 5 days: Low chance (10%)

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http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_epac.shtml

This product is updated at approximately 5 AM, 11 AM, 5 PM, and

11 PM PDT from May 15 to November 30. Special outlooks may be

issued as conditions warrant.

Eastern Pacific – Tropical Outlook

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Eastern Pacific – Tropical Storm Octave

As of 5:00 a.m. EDT

• Located 245 miles SSW of Cabo San Lazaro Mexico

• Moving NNW at 14 mph

• Turn N with decrease in forward speed expected later today;

• Additional decrease in forward speed & turn NE forecast Tuesday

• Maximum sustained winds 65 mph

• Weakening forecast next 48 hours

• Expected to become a tropical depression on Tuesday as it nears Baja

California Sur

• Tropical storm force winds extend out 70 miles

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Eastern Pacific – Tropical Storm Priscilla

As of 5:00 a.m. EDT

• Located 705 miles SW of southern tip of Baja California Mexico

• Moving NNE at 12 mph

• A N to NNE motion with some decrease in forward speed expected

next day or so

• Maximum sustained winds 40 mph

• Some strengthening forecast in the next day or so

• Tropical storm force winds extend 70 miles

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http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/cphc/

This product is updated at approximately 5 AM, 11 AM, 5 PM, and

11 PM PDT from May 15 to November 30. Special outlooks may be

issued as conditions warrant.

Central Pacific – Tropical Outlook

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http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/noaa/noaad1.pdf

National Weather Forecast

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Active Watches/Warnings

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/largemap.php

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http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day1-3.shtml

Precipitation Forecast – 3 Day

Day 1

Day 2

Day 3

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Excessive Rainfall – 1 Day

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94ewbg.gif

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http://water.weather.gov/ahps/forecasts.php?current_color=flood&current_type=all&fcst_t

ype=fcst&conus_map=d_map

River Forecast – 7 Day

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Convective Outlooks Days 1 – 3

Day 1 Day 2

Day 3

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Critical Fire Weather Areas Days 1 – 8

Day 1 Day 2

Day 3-8

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http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/threats_ie.php

Hazard Outlook: Oct 14 – 18

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NOAA Scales Activity (Range: 1/minor to 5/extreme)

Past

24 Hours Current

Next

24 Hours

Space Weather Activity: None None None

• Geomagnetic Storms None None None

• Solar Radiation Storms None None None

• Radio Blackouts None None None

Space Weather

Sunspot Activity

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/drap/global.html http://spaceweather.com/

HF Communication Impact

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• The Veniaminof Volcano on the Alaska Peninsula has again become

active, with a trace of ash falling on communities up to 35 miles away

• Mount Veniaminof Volcano resumed its 2013 eruption last

weekend after being dormant for about a month

• Eruption in June was marked by lava flows, fountaining, &

intermittent but small ash, steam & gas plumes

• Current ash fall from the volcano, located 480 miles southwest of

Anchorage, is not considered to be significant

• Ash plumes usually only travel a few miles from the volcano, but the

communities of Chignik Lake & Chignik Lagoon (pop. 92), about 35

miles away, reported trace ash on Friday

• Volcano remains under a "watch" alert level, according to the Alaska

Volcano Observatory

Source: Smithsonian / USGS Weekly Volcanic Activity Report and

Centro Nacional de Prevencion de Desastres (CENAPRED)

Veniaminof Volcano – Alaskan Peninsula

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Declaration Requests in Process Requests

APPROVED (since last report)

Requests DENIED

(since last report)

1 Date Requested

KS – DR Severe Storms, Straight-line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding September 25, 2013

Disaster Requests & Declarations

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Open Field Offices as of October 14, 2013

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Deployed Detailed Available Not Available Total

30 1 7 1 39

OFDC Cadre Member Status

Total Available Type 1 Type 2 Type 3 Type 4

8* 1 4 2 1

As of: 10/11/2013

* All Type 1 FCOs are available unless deployed to a Level 1 event

Deployed Available Pending Hire On Board Positions

8 1 1 9 10

Federal Coordinating Officer

Federal Disaster Recovery Coordinator

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FEMA Corps Team Locations as of Oct 14

Starting Monday, info will be provided

for Monday Briefings from now on

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MCOV Fleet / Deployment Status

Fully Mission Capable 52 Partially Mission Capable 0 Non-Mission Capable 3 Total Not Deployed 34

MCOV FLEET STATUS MCOV DISASTER SUPPORT DEPLOYMENTS

Location Units

Assigned Available

FMC Deployed

Committed PMC Unavailable DR-State OPCON

En

Route Unit Prep

Open

Request Notes:

MERS Maynard 3 3 0 0 0 DR-4145-CO 21 0 0

MERS Frederick 8 6 2 0 0 0 0 0

MERS Thomasville 14 11 3 0 0 0 0 0

DC Ft Worth 20 6 14 0 0 0 0 0

MERS Denver 2 0 2 0 0 0 0 0

MERS Bothell 4 2 0 0 2 0 0 0

Sacramento 4 3 0 0 1 0 0 0

TOTAL 55 31 21 0 3 TOTAL 21 0 0 0

Included in above totals, units in route for turn-in. 0 0

Data as of: 10/10/13 @ 1500

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IA Registration Statistics

IA Registrations and IHP Amounts as of October 10, 2013 @ 1500

DR/EM # - State Registrations Approved

Applicants Total HA Approved

Total ONA

Approved Total IHP Approved

4145 - CO 23,945 13,697 $38,303,154 $2,701,577 $41,004,731

Totals 23,945 13,697 $38,303,154 $2,701,577 $41,004,731

24 hour change +228 +176 +$664,814 +$74,246 +$739,060

NPSC Call Data for October 9, 2013

Total Calls Answered (Help Line + Registration Intake) 2,231

Average time to answer call 14 seconds

Maximum / Minimum time to answer a call 1 minute, 13 seconds / 8 seconds

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Housing Inspection Statistics

Inspection Data as of October 10, 2013 @ 1500

DR #-State Inspectors Inspections

Assigned

Inspections

Completed Inspection % Complete

Turnaround Time

(Days)

4145 - CO 27 20,793 20,292 97.59% 2.4

TOTAL 27 20,793 20,292 97.59% 2.4

24 hour change -2 +232 +299 +0.35% -0.0

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IMAT Status National Teams

Team Status Team Status Team Status

Blue/White East West CO

Regional Teams Team Status Team Status Team Status

Region I Region V Region VIII

Region II Region VI-1 Region IX-1

Region III Region VI-2 Region IX-2

Region IV-1 Region VII Region X

Region IV-2

= Assigned/Deployed

= Not Mission Capable

= Available/Mission Capable

= Available/Partially Mission Capable

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Urban Search & Rescue INCIDENT SUPPORT TEAMS (Red-White-Blue) – Monthly On Call Rotation

JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

WEST CENTRAL EAST

Team Status Team Status Team Status

CA-TF1 Available AZ-TF1 Available FL-TF1 Available

CA-TF2 Available CO-TF1 Available FL-TF2 Available

CA-TF3 Available IN-TF1 Available MA-TF1 Available

CA-TF4 Available MO-TF1 Available MD-TF1 Available

CA-TF5 Available NE-TF1 Available NY-TF1 Available

CA-TF6 Available NM-TF1 Conditional PA-TF1 Available

CA-TF7 Available NV-TF1 Conditional VA-TF1 Available

CA-TF8 Available TN-TF1 Available VA-TF2 Available

WA-TF1 Available TX-TF1 Available OH-TF1 Available

UT-TF1 Available

= Assigned/Deployed = Out-of-Service

= Available/Mission Capable = Available/Partially Mission Capable

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Region RRCC Regional Watch Center

I Not Activated Maynard MOC (24/7)

II Not Activated 24/7

III Not Activated 24/7

IV Not Activated 24/7

V Not Activated 24/7

VI Not Activated Denton MOC (24/7)

VII Not Activated 24/7

VIII Not Activated Denver MOC (24/7)

IX Not Activated 24/7

X Not Activated Bothell MOC (24/7)

RRCC / Regional Watch Center Status

= Not Mission Capable = Available/Partially Mission Capable = Available/Mission Capable

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National Team Status

Team/Status Current Location Remarks

National Watch Center Washington, DC Enhanced Watch (Day only)

NRCC Washington, DC Not Activated

HLT Miami, FL Activated

DEST Washington, DC Not Activated

Mission Capable Partially Mission Capable Not Mission Capable

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