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TRANSCRIPT
Feeding the World: Time for a New Green Revolution
Speakers
Bill Cordingley, Managing Director and Head of Food and Agribusiness Research and Advisory-The
Americas, Rabobank International
Richard Kottmeyer, Global Agriculture and Food Production Leader, IBM Global Services
David Morgan, President, Syngenta Seeds, Inc.; Region Director - North America, Syngenta
Iris Yedidia, Group Leader, Agricultural Microbiology and Biotechnology, Agricultural Research
Organization, Israeli Ministry of Agriculture
Moderator
Carole Brookins, Managing Director, Public Capital Advisors, LLC
World GDP growth
The world economy is expected to recover from the global
financial crisis
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Percent
Source: World Economic Outlook, April 2012.
Note: Projections are shaded.
World population World population is continuously increasing – 7 billion in Oct. 2011
Source: World Bank, 2012.
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Billions Rural Urban
Arable land
Arable land as percent of total land is much less than it
twenty years ago
Source: World Bank,2012.
10.45
10.50
10.55
10.60
10.65
10.70
10.75
10.80
10.85
10.90
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
% of land area
Climate change in the world
Change in mean precipitation (mm per year) for 2040,
projected, relative to 1970-1999
Source: The Government Office for Science, London, 2012.
World food consumption
The consumption of major crops and livestock increases continuously
Source: USDA Economic Research Service, December 2011.
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2002/03 2004/05 2006/07 2008/09 2010/11
Metric tons
Coarse grains
Wheat
Rice, milled
0
50
100
150
200
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
Metric tons
Beef and pork
Broilers and turkeys
World commodity price (2005=100)
Food price and commodity price are increasing
Source: World Economic Outlook, April 2012.
0
50
100
150
200
250
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Index
Food and beverage price index
Commodity price index
Agriculture productivity for the U.S.
Total factor productivity in the U.S. has been increasing since 1948
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
1948 1953 1958 1963 1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008
Total factor productivity
Source: USDA Economic Research Service, January 2012.
Food expenditures
U.S. food expenditures as a share of disposable personal
income have been decreasing
Source: USDA Economic Research Service, January 2011.
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1929 1939 1949 1959 1969 1979 1989 1999 2009
Percent
Global Hunger Index and its distribution
Global Hunger Index tends to decrease in the world and in regions
Source: International Food Policy Research Institute, 2012.
Agricultural export destinations
Top 10 U.S. agricultural export destinations by US$, 2011
Source: USDA Economic Research Service, 2012.
Mexico, 14.8%
Japan, 13.4%
Nigeria, 11.0%South Korea, 16.4%
Philippines, 10.3%
Taiwan, 4.5%
Indonesia, 1.7%
EU-27, 1.3%
Dominican Republic, 1.7%
Thailand, 5.4%
Food export commodities
Top 10 U.S. food export commodities by US$, 2011
Source: USDA Economic Research Service, 2012.
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
US$ billions
Soybean exports
Top 10 U.S. soybean export destinations by volume, February,
2012
Source: USDA Economic Research Service, April 2012.
China, 64.3%Mexico, 5.3%
Japan, 5.6%
Indonesia, 3.4%
EU-27, 5.8%
Taiwan, 3.2%
Egypt, 3.1%
Turkey, 1.3%Tunisia, 0.7%
South Korea, 0.7%
World agriculture R&D input
Private R&D expenditures for food and agriculture, 2010
Crop protection chemicals
28.3%
Crop seed & biotech33.8%
Farm machinery21.7%
Fertilizer0.9%
Food animal health8.5%
Animal breeding & genetics
3.1%Animal nutrition
3.7%
Source: USDA Economic Research Report, December 2011.
U.S. agricultural research funding
U.S. agricultural research funding in public and private
sectors, 1970-2009
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
US$ billions
Private R&D funding
Public R&D funding
Source: USDA Economic Research Service, 2012.
Technology - Genetically Engineered (GE)
crops Varieties of GE crops in the United States are increasing
Source: USDA Economic Research Service, 2012.
0
20
40
60
80
100
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Number of varietiesCorn Soybeans
Carole Brookins
Managing Director, Public Capital Advisors, LLC
THINKING ABOUT “FEEDING THE WORLD”?
• “Between now and 2040…Water
problems will hinder the ability of
key countries to produce food and
generate energy, posing a risk to
global food markets and hobbling
economic growth..North Africa, the
Middle East and South Asia will
face major (water) challenges…”
- “Global Water Security”, US National
Intelligence Council, March 2012
U.S. real agricultural R&D spending
Source: Council on Agricultural Science and Technology.
0
2,000,000,000
4,000,000,000
6,000,000,000
8,000,000,000
10,000,000,000
12,000,000,000
US
Dlr
s(2
006-
Infl
atio
n A
dj)
Public Private Total
Disparate global maize yields
Source: FAO.
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
MT
/Ha
1.4 trillion 2012 global
R&D spending: How much in Food/Ag?
Source: Battelle-R&D Magazine.
USA-Private Industry $275; USG $125 bln
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
USA ROW
Bln
US
Do
lla
rs
FY2013 US federal government R&D budget $140.8 bln
US Government FY2013 R&D
Priority Agency Spending:
DOD, HHS, DOE : $115 Bln
Priority Tech/Innovation:
1. Clean Energy
2. Smart Infrastructure
3. Wireless Broadband
4. Cybersecurity
5. Aerospace
0 50 100 150 200
Livestock Production
Livestock Protection
Human Nutrition
New Products/Quality/Valu…
Food Safety
Crop Protection
FY2013 Agriculture R&D Budget –(BlnUS $2.3)
Bill Cordingley
Managing Director and Head of Food and Agribusiness Research and
Advisory-The Americas, Rabobank International
Population growth forecast, selected
regions, 2011-2021f
Source: UN Population Division, 2011.
+9%+10% +2%
+11%-2%+11%
+25%+3% +13%
+9%-2%
+12%
Food markets to grow by 109% in ten years
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
Siz
e o
f fo
od
ma
rke
t(U
SD
bil
lio
n)
Growth 2020
Food markets 2010
Source: Rabobank, based on KEO, Economist Intelligence Unit and FAO.
Economic growth effects consumption
Per capita income level Effect of economic growth
on food consumption
Number of people affected
(selected countries)
<USD 2 per day Eat more (increase calorie
intake)
2.6 billion
(Africa, India, Indonesia, China)
USD 2-10 per day Switch from grains to meat
and dairy
1.6 billion
(mostly in China)
>USD 10 per day Increase spending on
services/quality (convenience,
brands, fresh/cooled)
1.6 billion
(developed world)
Global yields sound the supply alarm bells!
World yield growth, 5-year moving average, 1966-2009
-1.00%
0.00%
1.00%
2.00%
3.00%
4.00%
5.00%
6.00%
1966
1969
1972
1975
1978
1981
1984
1987
1990
1993
1996
1999
2002
2005
2008
Wheat
-2.00%
-1.00%
0.00%
1.00%
2.00%
3.00%
4.00%
5.00%
6.00%
7.00%
1966
1969
1972
1975
1978
1981
1984
1987
1990
1993
1996
1999
2002
2005
2008
Corn
Source: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, 2011.
-1.00%
0.00%
1.00%
2.00%
3.00%
4.00%
5.00%
6.00%
1966
1969
1972
1975
1978
1981
1984
1987
1990
1993
1996
1999
2002
2005
2008
Soybeans
0.00%
0.50%
1.00%
1.50%
2.00%
2.50%
3.00%
3.50%
4.00%
4.50%
1966
1969
1972
1975
1978
1981
1984
1987
1990
1993
1996
1999
2002
2005
2008
Rice, paddy
Source: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, 2011.
Global yields sound the supply alarm bells!
World yield growth, 5-year moving average, 1966-2009
The supply/demand mismatch is the
biggest challenge
Arable land per capita, selected regions, 2009
Low land
availability, no
expansion
opportunities
Significant
expansion
opportunities
Potential land availability
Currently cultivated Potential supply of
additional land
Sub-Saharan Africa 210,149 201,540
Sudan 16,311 46,025
Dem. Rep. of Congo 14,739 22,498
South America and Caribbean 162,289 123,342
Brazil 62,293 45,472
Argentina 28,154 29,500
Eastern Europe and Central
Asia
251,811 52,387
Russian Federation 119,985 38,434
Rest of the world 878,113 68,355
Source: World Bank, 2010.
Its more than agronomic potential that
determines Ag output Unmet yield potential of key production regions
Source: World Bank, 2010.
Farm structures vary hugely between continents
Source: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, EU, 2010.
Increasing trade will play a role, but can’t
be the whole solution
Source: USDA/ERS 2011.
Net trade position in grain & oilseed
equivalents, 2000-2020f
Country Million tonnes
2000 2010 2020f
Egypt -14 -21 -28
Algeria -8 -10 -12
Saudi Arabia -9 -16 -21
China -10 -65 -74
India 3 6 0
Japan -48 -45 -43
South Korea -20 -22 -23
Source: Rabobank, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, OECD, 2011.
Case study: India’s so big, but so much
potential
India has the potential to be :
• One of the largest food markets in the world
• One of the top global exporters
• The home base for many Indian Multinational Corporations
• Agriculture represents 17.1% of GDP (2009)
• Employs 52% of the total workforce
• 126 million farming families engaged in
primary agriculture
• Average farm size – 1.41 Ha
• Favourable government policies
# 1 – Milk producer (108 million tonne)
# 1 – Cattle /buffaloes (283 mn)
# 2 – Arable land area (161 mn ha)
# 2 – Fruit and Vegetables (188 mn tonnes)
# 2 – Food grains (229 mn tonnes)
# 2 – Sugarcane (271 mn tonnes)
# 3 – Agri commodities
Number of US hog operations vs. US pork production
Source: USDA, NASS, 2011.
Farmer consolidation is one ingredient
to meeting the food challenge!
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
11,000
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400 1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Hog operations Pork production
David Morgan
President, Syngenta Seeds, Inc.; Region Director - North America,
Syngenta
Did you know that…?
By 2050, global population will rise
by about a third to9 billionpeople
but
Global calorie demand will increase by
50%
Classif ication: PUBLIC
Source: FAO, World Bank statistics, Syngenta
Demand for food is driven by population growth and rising calorie consumption
World population> 80% of growth happensin emerging markets
19502.5 billion
20117 billion
20509 billionEmerging
Developed
Source: FAO, Syngenta analysis
0
1
2
3
4
1970 2000 2010 2030 2050
World demand for major crops*bn tonnes
+50%
* Includes cereals, rice, corn and soybean
FoodFeed
Classif ication: PUBLIC
Environmental stresses are increasing
The change in climate is already reducing water and arable land . . .
Source: UNEP, Cline, Syngenta
Climate change impact
High
Medium
Low
Classif ication: PUBLIC
1950 2030
1 hectare
fed 2 people
1 hectare needs
to feed 5 people
. . . requiring better use of existing farm land
Modern Agriculture has enabled real progress
Classif ication: PUBLIC
Source: USDA, January 2010
We are growing more from less, but we need to do more
Environmental Benefits of Modern Agriculture
Classif ication: PUBLIC
Agricultural production: emerging markets drive future growth
Classif ication: PUBLIC
Global field crop production*Billion tons, est.
2020Avg
2007-2009
Rest of World
BRIC**~75% of
global productiongrowth
Developedcountries**
Source: FAO-OECD 2010/19 Agricultural Outlook, Syngenta Analysis
* Includes: wheat, oilseeds, rice, coarse grains
** BRIC = Brazil, Russia, India, China; Developed = NAFTA, EU, Japan, Australia
Challenges for global agriculture
● Huge rise in demand
● Limited farmland
● Limited water supplies
● Need to continue raising yields
Classif ication: PUBLIC
Only sustainable approach is to
unlock the potential of plants
through innovation
We must grow more
from less
PLENE: Focus on efficiency and sustainability
The first integrated mechanized planting
system for sugar cane
Disease-free
Traceable
Genetic warranty
Cleaning and cutting
Treatment with Syngenta
technologies
Packaging
Minimal tillage
High productivity
Better use of
natural resources
Less manpower
Greater efficiency
Better working
conditions
Faster germination
Increased resistance
Complete crop
protection program
Greater convenience
and reduced cost
15%Cost reduction
for growers
Healthy seedlings
production at
Syngenta nurseries
Production and
processing units
Planting Labor Continued value
creation
Classif ication: PUBLIC
in sugarcane: anticipating customer needs
Classif ication: PUBLIC
TEGRA: transforming rice production
Securing yield and reducing labor for
smallholders: introducing a revolutionary
transplanting system
Preferred retailers place direct
Farmer orders
High quality treated seeds Integrated technology in
seedling tray
Agronomy protocol to maximize
yields
Transplant franchisees offer
seedlings-in-the-field
Nursery franchisees raise
healthy seedlings
30%yield advantage
150%return oninvestment
Classif ication: PUBLIC
TEGRA™
Classif ication: PUBLIC
PaniPipe
Classif ication: PUBLIC
“If our new varieties had been
subjected to the kinds of regulatory
strictures and requirements that
are being inflicted upon the new
biotechnology, they never would
have become available.”
Norman Borlaug
Classif ication: PUBLIC
Iris Yedidia
Group Leader, Agricultural Microbiology and Biotechnology,
Agricultural Research
The main challenges of Israeli agriculture
These limitations compel
Israeli agriculture to :
• Ensure A high degree of self supply
• Protect domestic produce
• Develop intensive production
• Maintain peripheral areas
Challenges:
•Shortage of water resources
• Scarcity of precipitation
• Two thirds of the land area defined
as semi-arid or arid
• Complex geopolitical environment
• Distance from export markets
Current research priorities & areas at ARO
• Facing agricultural threats (global & local):
- Climate change
- Food security crisis
- Alternative energy
• Precision agriculture (ICT = Information & Communication
Technologies)
• Agricultural biotechnology and its legal and societal regulation
• Market-oriented novel agricultural products
• Economics, marketing and rural development policy
Evolution of productivity in agriculture
and other sectors
Source: Bank of Israel.
Billi
on
$
Agriculture productivity and efficiency Productivity in different sectors
Potential irrigation water sources Irrigation technologies, purification and recycling, desalination
• Existing potable water resources (lakes, aquifers,
streams)
• Marginal water (saline water, recycled water)
• Rainfall enhancement
• Desalination
• Water saving: improved irrigation practices and
technology (precision agriculture, leak prevention,
drip irrigation), education
Moving irrigation systems
increased efficiency
Thermal imaging
water status
Grapvine, Kibbuts Yiftach
Over-Irrigation
Regular -Irrigation
Breeding
Functional plant biology at the Agriculture Research Organization
• Development of genetic material for
breeding programs, mapping genetic
markers for important genes in fruits
and vegetables
• Resistance to pathogens, drought
and salinity
• Extended seasonal productivity
•Effecting size & shape, pigments
• Enhancement of taste, aroma, shelf
life & quality (vitamins, antioxidants)
Resistance Non- resistance
Fruit breeding
Sample: pomegranate development at the ARO
Breeding for quality and
year round production
Technology development: agricultural engineering
and postharvest technologies
Automatic peeling and arils retrieving
Final product:
arils and peel
New Israeli
varieties
Netting technology
Climate and growth control
• Protection from environmental hazards
• Water saving
• Different colors for plant growth control
• Shadowing for climate control
• Pest control
Precision agriculture The right thing in the right place at the right time
• Site specific weed management
• Site specific pest management
• Spatial variability for disease control
• Thermal imaging – water status variability
• Over/under-application of resources
• Ground water contamination by chemicals
• Reduction in yield quality
Spraying
No Crop, no spraying
Development of new cultivation methods Cultivars selection, irrigation and technology assimilation
Oil quality
Irrigation Traditional
cultivation
Cultivation methods New plantations
Olive orchards:
• New varieties
• Use of recycled and brackish
water
• Transformation of grape-harvester
to olive-harvester
Dr. Iris Yedidia
Thank You