february 2012 better environment with nuclear energy nuclear power – fact and fiction
TRANSCRIPT
February 2012 better environment with nuclear energy www.bene.ie
Nuclear Power – fact and fiction
February 2012 better environment with nuclear energy www.bene.ie
Many genuine concerns
February 2012 better environment with nuclear energy www.bene.ie
http://ec.europa.eu/energy/nuclear/waste/doc/2005_06_nuclear_waste_en.pdf
February 2012 better environment with nuclear energy www.bene.ie
http://ec.europa.eu/public_opinion/archives/ebs/ebs_297_en.pdf
February 2012 better environment with nuclear energy www.bene.ie
http://ec.europa.eu/public_opinion/archives/ebs/ebs_297_en.pdf
February 2012 better environment with nuclear energy www.bene.ie
Objections in Ireland
It’s not safe No solution for wasteDoesn’t help emissionsUse in nuclear weaponsRisk of terrorismFuel will run outThey’re too bigThey’re too expensiveUse renewables instead
February 2012 better environment with nuclear energy www.bene.ie
Fact or Fiction?
“We are not going nuclear because we are going down the renewables route.“
Minister for Energy (Eamon Ryan), Late Debate, RTE radio
February 2012 better environment with nuclear energy www.bene.ie
Joint Committee on Climate Change and Energy Security
CER submission
“… gas and wind generation must be supplemented by other sources, whether coal with carbon capture and storage, nuclear or non-intermittent renewables.”
February 2012 better environment with nuclear energy www.bene.ie
EirGrid
“concerns that the portfolio … dominated by wind … supported by gas ... exposes Ireland to risks both in terms of supply and price volatility.”
February 2012 better environment with nuclear energy www.bene.ie
Airtricity
“a sustainable electricity system is the sum of a portfolio of interdependent technological solutions including renewables”
“Should competitive, flexible, smaller scale reactors be proven, then this is an option that Ireland should consider in the longer term.”
February 2012 better environment with nuclear energy www.bene.ie
Wind output at system peaks
February 2012 better environment with nuclear energy www.bene.ie
Capacity Credit of Wind
http://www.eirgrid.com/media/Generation%20Adequacy%20Report%202010-2016.pdf
February 2012 better environment with nuclear energy www.bene.ie
Realistic contribution of some renewables - global
Maximum additional (thermal equivalent) amounts:
Wind x 50Hydro x 2Biomass x 3Geothermal x 70Marine x 500
February 2012 better environment with nuclear energy www.bene.ie
Realistic contribution of some renewables - global
Maximum additional (thermal equivalent) amounts:
Wind x 50 (~ 3 TW)Hydro x 2 (~ 1 TW)Biomass x 3 (~ 1 TW) total < 6 TWGeothermal x 70 (~ 100 GW) (need 15 TW)Marine x 500 (~ 100 GW)
Remainder from solar, fission, fusion and new technology
February 2012 better environment with nuclear energy www.bene.ie
Objections in Ireland
It’s not safe No solution for wasteDoesn’t help emissionsUse in nuclear weaponsRisk of terrorismFuel will run outThey’re too bigThey’re too expensiveUse renewables instead ……….. Fiction
February 2012 better environment with nuclear energy www.bene.ie
Fact or Fiction?
“Any reasonable cost-benefit analysis concludes that nuclear energy has no future“
Oisin Coghlan, Friends of the Earth
OR“..our electricity is more expensive … because they have nuclear energy, which is cheaper.”
Mary Coughlan, Tánaiste and Minister for Enterprise, Trade and Employment
February 2012 better environment with nuclear energy www.bene.ie
SEI shows nuclear cheaper than wind
http://www.seai.ie/Publications/Low_Carbon_Opportunity_Study/Technical_Appendix.pdf
February 2012 better environment with nuclear energy www.bene.ie
DIT/BERR: nuclear cheapest new option
http://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/tna/+/http://www.berr.gov.uk/files/file31938.pdf
February 2012 better environment with nuclear energy www.bene.ie
Objections in Ireland
It’s not safeNo solution for wasteDoesn’t help emissionsUse in nuclear weaponsRisk of terrorismFuel will run outThey’re too bigThey’re too expensive ….……….. FictionUse renewables instead ……….. Fiction
February 2012 better environment with nuclear energy www.bene.ie
Fact or Fiction?
“Too big for the Irish Grid”
“Plant size is 1600 MW”
February 2012 better environment with nuclear energy www.bene.ie
New nuclear plants by 2015-20• Toshiba 4S 10 MW• Hyperion 25 MW• PBMR 165 MW• Babcock & Wilcox SMR 185 MW• Westinghouse SMR 225 MW
10 new plants <= 700 MW will begin operation by 2012
Opportunity, not a threat!
February 2012 better environment with nuclear energy www.bene.ie
Objections in Ireland
It’s not safeNo solution for wasteDoesn’t help emissionsUse in nuclear weaponsRisk of terrorismFuel will run outThey’re too big …………………...... FictionThey’re too expensive ….……….. FictionUse renewables instead ……….. Fiction
February 2012 better environment with nuclear energy www.bene.ie
Not enough fuel?
> 70 years at 70,000 tU p.a.
@ US$130 /kgU
Known Recoverable Resources of Uranium 2009
February 2012 better environment with nuclear energy www.bene.ie
February 2012 better environment with nuclear energy www.bene.ie
Objections in Ireland
It’s not safeNo solution for wasteDoesn’t help emissionsUse in nuclear weaponsRisk of terrorismFuel will run out ……………………. FictionThey’re too big …………………...... FictionThey’re too expensive ….……….. FictionUse renewables instead ……….. Fiction
February 2012 better environment with nuclear energy www.bene.ie
Segregated + protected + shielded
Jet crash test
Small target
Underground
Auto SCRAM
Easier targets (chemical, biological)
No history
Target for terrorists?
https://share.sandia.gov/news/resources/video-gallery/index.html#rocketsled
February 2012 better environment with nuclear energy www.bene.ie
Objections in Ireland
It’s not safeNo solution for wasteDoesn’t help emissionsUse in nuclear weaponsRisk of terrorism ……….............. FictionFuel will run out ……………………. FictionThey’re too big …………………...... FictionThey’re too expensive ….……….. FictionUse renewables instead ……….. Fiction
February 2012 better environment with nuclear energy www.bene.ie
Use in weapon?
• Fuel: Low Enriched Uranium (< 5%)• Weapon: Highly Enriched Uranium (>20%)• State-run enrichment facilities• Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty• IFNEC (GNEP)?• Cannot operate as a nuclear weapon
February 2012 better environment with nuclear energy www.bene.ie
Objections in Ireland
It’s not safeNo solution for wasteDoesn’t help emissionsUse in nuclear weapons ………… FictionRisk of terrorism ……….............. FictionFuel will run out ……………………. FictionThey’re too big …………………...... FictionThey’re too expensive ….……….. FictionUse renewables instead ……….. Fiction
February 2012 better environment with nuclear energy www.bene.ie
Fact or fiction?
“nuclear energy is just as polluting in terms of carbon emissions as gas-fired power.”
Oisin Coghlan, Friends of the Earth
February 2012 better environment with nuclear energy www.bene.ie
IPCC are unequivocal…
Figure 4.19 in Climate Change 2007: Working Group III: Mitigation of Climate Change
February 2012 better environment with nuclear energy www.bene.ie
Future Irish emissions
http://www.eirgrid.com/media/Low%20Carbon%20Generation%20Options%20for%20the%20All%20Island%20Market%20%282%29.pdf (POYRY)
February 2012 better environment with nuclear energy www.bene.ie
Objections in Ireland
It’s not safeNo solution for wasteDoesn’t help emissions …………. FictionUse in nuclear weapons ………… FictionRisk of terrorism ……….............. FictionFuel will run out ……………………. FictionThey’re too big …………………...... FictionThey’re too expensive ….……….. FictionUse renewables instead ……….. Fiction
February 2012 better environment with nuclear energy www.bene.ie
“Waste remains dangerous for hundreds of thousands of years” – fact or fiction?
"What is remarkable about nuclear waste is that it fades away. In 600 years the high-level waste from a nuclear power station is no more radioactive or dangerous than the uranium ore from which it originated.” James Lovelock
February 2012 better environment with nuclear energy www.bene.ie
Waste issues
Small quantities (500 m3 HLW vs 1 bn m3 ind pa)Retained50-year waiting periodLong life = low radioactivityGeological storage (Finland, Sweden, UK, Switzerland)Natural reactors (Oklo, 3 billion years ago)Valuable resource - use as fuel?
February 2012 better environment with nuclear energy www.bene.ie
Objections in Ireland
It’s not safeNo solution for waste ………….... FictionDoesn’t help emissions …………. FictionUse in nuclear weapons ………… FictionRisk of terrorism ……….............. FictionFuel will run out ……………………. FictionThey’re too big …………………...... FictionThey’re too expensive ….……….. FictionUse renewables instead ……….. Fiction
February 2012 better environment with nuclear energy www.bene.ie
U.S. Industrial Safety Accident Rate2007
0.12
2.20
3.30
Nuclear Power Plants Utilities ManufacturingISAR = Number of accidents resulting in lost work, restricted work, or fatalities per 200,000 worker hours. Electric utilities and manufacturing do not include fatality data.Sources: Nuclear (World Association of Nuclear Operators), 2006 Data for Electric Utilities and Manufacturing (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics). Updated: 4/08
February 2012 better environment with nuclear energy www.bene.ie
ISAR = Number of accidents resulting in lost work, restricted work, or fatalities per 200,000 worker hours.Note: Starting in 2008, data includes supplemental personnel.Source: World Association of Nuclear Operators Updated: 4/11
U.S. Nuclear Industrial Safety Accident Rate
One-Year Industry Values
February 2012 better environment with nuclear energy www.bene.ie
February 2012 better environment with nuclear energy www.bene.ie
February 2012 better environment with nuclear energy www.bene.ie
Objections in Ireland
It’s not safe ………….................... FictionNo solution for waste ………….... FictionDoesn’t help emissions …………. FictionUse in nuclear weapons ………… FictionRisk of terrorism ……….............. FictionFuel will run out ……………………. FictionThey’re too big …………………...... FictionThey’re too expensive ….……….. FictionUse renewables instead ……….. Fiction
February 2012 better environment with nuclear energy www.bene.ie
Summary
• Whirlwind guide
• Many fallacies circulating
• Efficiency paramount
• Serious topic, serious consideration
• Going gets tough….facts, not fiction!
February 2012 better environment with nuclear energy www.bene.ie
Radiation and Protection