梅ヶ枝中央会計 -...
TRANSCRIPT
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(12)()1DCF
2019716
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No
1 4/9
2 4/23 1
3 5/14 2
4 5/21 3
5 5/28 4
6 6/4 5
7 6/11 1
8 6/18 2 VC
9 6/25 3
10 7/2 4 VC
11 7/9 5
12 7/16 ()1 DCF
13 7/23 ()2
14 7/30 ()3
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12.()1DCFWACCCAPMPOWER
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DCF
4
32 19 16 25
DCF
PERVCIRRVC
-
3
5
()
26
-
DCF
6
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(DCF)
7
()(ke
CAPM(Capital Asset Pricing Model)(8.(1))
(kw)(5.(1))
WACC
VE0FCFttwTV()
kwEDkekd(1)
V0FCF1
FCF2
FCFn
TV
(1kw) (1kw)2 (1kw)n (1kw)n
kwE
keD
kd(1)ED ED
kerf(rrf)
kerfr
()Vo(5.(1))
FCF
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8
10%100101100110%(1r)1102110110%(1r)121100(1r)2
3121110%(1r)133.1100(1r)3
10100(1r)10
10%10100100(1r)10
1001(1r)10
POWER(1,10)1+r10
10%100100100(1r)100(1r)2100(1r)
100r10010%1,000108%12.55%20
DCF(
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FCF
(5.(1))
(1)t()M&A!?6
()
(H27// (H28//
~12/31) ~12/31)
486,543 486,566
71,523 62,208
233,501 302,046
857 921
82,146 188,201
54,007 34,181
46,262 24,422
506,123 492,611
232,270 264,591
3,197 2,655
270,656 230,675
20,983 24,953
2,826
38,130 30,377
9,708 10,150
24,549 64,487
5,444 5,749
13,955 17,152
73,971 104,240
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10
(8.(1))
http://www.nikkeimm.co.jp/profile/ibbotsondata/index.html
or
5%8%
http://www.nikkeimm.co.jp/profile/ibbotsondata/index.html -
1/2
11
1.
TOPIX HP http://takanawa-audit.com/%E6%B8%9B%E6%90%8D%E4%BC%9A%E8%A8%88/206/#rf-25
A B C
54,000 0 7,000
74,000 29,000 20,000
D/E (a/b) 0.73 0 0.35
1.46 1.06 1.55
40% 40% 40%
(1+(1-))
1.02 1.06 1.28
1.12
http://takanawa-audit.com/%E6%B8%9B%E6%90%8D%E4%BC%9A%E8%A8%88/206/#rf-2 -
2/2
12
1.12
DE 0.5
40%
(1+(1-)) 1.45
8.(1)
*x
xLBO
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()FCF
1 2 34
r 7.1% 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 rf 0.1% 30% 3,000 3,000 3,000 3,000 rm-rf 7.0% 7,000 7,000 7,000 7,000 1.00 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 ke kerf(rrf) 0 0 0 0 7.1%
FCF 8,000 8,000 8,000 8,000 (WACC)r(WACC) 6.60% E 90%(1+r) 106.6% 113.6% 121.1% D 10%1) 93.8% 88.0% 82.6% 30% kd 3.0%
kd(1) 2.1%
kw(WACC) 6.60%
E/(D+E)keD/(D+E)kd(1-t)
r(WACC) 6.6%A 4FCF 8,000BBA 121,212BA 82.6%
DCF
(DCF)()
13
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()FCF
1 2 34
r 7.1% 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 rf 0.1% 30% 3,000 3,000 3,000 3,000 rm-rf 7.0% 7,000 7,000 7,000 7,000 1.00 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 ke kerf(rrf) 0 0 0 0 7.1%
FCF 8,000 8,000 8,000 8,000 (WACC)r(WACC) 6.60% E 90%(1+r) 106.6% 113.6% 121.1% D 10%1) 93.8% 88.0% 82.6% 30% 7,504 7,040 6,608 21,152 kd 3.0%
kd(1) 2.1%
kw(WACC) 6.60%
E/(D+E)keD/(D+E)kd(1-t)
r(WACC) 6.6%A 4FCF 8,000BBA 121,212BA 82.6%
100,121DCF
121,273
(DCF)()
14
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www.umegae.co.jp
15