FCE ASM 2016

Hydrology and Water Policy

René Price and Rinku Roy Chowdhury (Co-Leads)

Other Members: Shimon Wdowinski, Mark Rains, Katrina Schwartz, Rick Stepp, Max Kirsch, Jessica

Cattelino, Rosanna Rivero, Evan Variano, Carl Fitz, Thomas Dreschel, Fred Sklar, Chris Madden, Gordon Anderson, Mark Zucker, Kevin Whelan, Jordan Barr, David Rudnick,

Laura Ogden, Leonard Scinto, Amartya Saha, Steve Oberbauer, John Kominoski, Henry Briceno, Justin Maxwell, Darren Ficklin, Shimelis Dessu

Students Hillary Flower, Branden McGee, Landon Yoder, Sparkle Malone, Jan Auke, Nicolaas

Dijkwel-Van Hall Larenstein, Joshua Allen, Dillon Reio, Kalli Unthank, Andres Prieto

CENTRAL QUESTIONS

GENERAL QUESTION 5: How do climate change and SLR interact with water management practices to control hydrologic conditions in the oligohaline ecotone?

Hypothesis 5.1: Variable inflows from upstream sources, SLR, storm surge, and rainfall interact to alter surface water residence time, salinity, and groundwater intrusion in the oligohaline ecotone.

Hypothesis 5.2: Stakeholder uncertainties over (water availability and) SLR will increase conflicts over Everglades restoration implementation and will affect freshwater delivery to the oligohaline ecotone.

NSF REVIEW FEEDBACK AND REFLECTION

b. Quality control of datasets.

Action: We need to quantify uncertainty/error in our datasets by include this information in the data abstracts, as well as in our publications.

NSF REVIEW FEEDBACK AND REFLECTION

c. Not clear if there is sufficient data on tidal dynamics that drive the marine influence given the fact that tides are complicated by at least two water bodies (Florida Bay and Gulf of Mexico) bounding the FCE. We understand the challenges of instrumentation and flow representation in this system, but we expect that future reviewers will want to know where and when existing tidal measurements and records are inadequate for representing the fluxes of key drivers, and the strategy for addressing these gaps.

ACTION. We need to determine if our tidal records are adequate for representing tidal flux into the FCE for FCEIII and FCE IV. Discussion for break-out group.

NSF REVIEW FEEDBACK AND REFLECTION

f. We perceived some weaknesses in the analysis of long-term records. Although the proposal is organized around hypotheses about "balance of" and "change in" freshwater and marine contributions, the midterm review team was not able to understand how long-term data on these key drivers were being measured or used to detect trends or cycles at the various sites. Is "balance" or "changes" in freshwater and marine contributions defined based on water levels? Is it based on temporal, spatial variability, and if so, in which long-term measured variables? In time, what scales of variability (diel, storm, seasonal, interannual, multi-annual) are important and why? In space, what scales of variability are important?

ACTION: We need to define trends, variability, and thresholds, especially in hydrologic and climate drivers specified in hypotheses, using long-term data and consistent analysis approaches.

Discussion to follow in afternoon break-out group.

NSF REVIEW FEEDBACK AND REFLECTION

a. We found the social-ecological research to be strong and compelling. Integrating transdisciplinary research by social and natural scientists is a big strength of the FCE. The current state of the FCE is a legacy of past human interventions, and the state of the FCE will continue to change over the long term in response to additional planned interventions, to accommodate population growth and to restore the hydrology of the FCE.

Recommendation: We recommend continued emphasis on targeted studies that relate human decision-making to water availability for the Everglades.

Action: We need to ensure that our social-ecological research addresses our main research questions and hypotheses.

GENERAL WORKING GROUP PROGRESS

Hypothesis 5.1: Variable inflows from upstream sources, SLR, and storm surge (and rainfall) interact to alter surface water residence time, salinity, and groundwater intrusion in the oligohaline ecotone.

Precipita)on  Precipita)on  Precipita)on  ET  

Water  Management  

Wet Season Dry Season

Higher upstream stages drive groundwater discharge and surface water flows at ecotone. P concentrations in surface water are low.

Lower upstream stages result in lower surface water and groundwater discharges, with higher P detected in surface water.

Taylor Slough Hydrology Source: Linden 2015

Linden 2015

GOALS FOR 2016 What goals does the group have that can be

included in the 2016 NSF report?

1: Groundwater modeling of Taylor Slough

2D profile of Taylor Slough finite element mesh in SUTRA interface

GOALS FOR 2016 What goals does the group have that can be

included in the 2016 NSF report?

2: Obstacles to implementing Everglades restoration •  Ins$tu$onal  and  historical  analysis  (mid-­‐1980s-­‐present)  

• Waters  of  Des+ny:  the  Everglades,  flood  control,  and  surviving  the  Anthropocene  in  South  Florida  (book  manuscript  in  progress)    

• Methods:    •  Interviews:  semi-­‐structured  “expert”  interviews  (over  150  hours  with  ~120  individuals)  

•  Par)cipant  observa)on:  agency  mee)ngs,  conferences,  rallies,  fes)vals  etc  •  Archival:  legal  documents,  government  reports,  news  media,  memoirs  etc  

Katrina Schwartz

GOALS FOR 2016 What goals does the group have that can be

included in the 2016 NSF report?

2: Obstacles to implementing Everglades restoration Part  I:  Lake  Okeechobee  (Upstream  focus)  •  Key  dynamic:  the  opera)ons  conundrum  •  Technological,  natural  and  sociopoli)cal  constraints  and  tradeoffs  in  opera)ng  the  C&SF  system  for  mul)ple  purposes  authorized  by  Congress  

Part  II:  The  River  of  Grass  (Downstream  focus:  EAA,  Lower  East  Coast,  remnant  Everglades)  •  Cases:  “P  wars”;  CERP/CEPP;  Mod  Waters  •  Two  (interac)ng)  key  dynamics:  

•  Property  rela)ons  (Tensions  between  private  rights  and  public  interests;  Land-­‐use  cultures  and  histories)  

•  Limita)ons  of  U.S.  regulatory  toolbox  (Endangered  Species  Act,  Water  Resources  Act,  Clean  Water  Act,  Intergovernmental  coordina)on)  

Katrina Schwartz

GOALS FOR 2016 What goals does the group have that can be

included in the 2016 NSF report?

2: Water use, quality and BMPs in the EAA •  Combina)on  of  required  best  management  prac)ces  and  stormwater  treatment  areas  has  reduced  P  levels  substan)ally  (South  Florida  Environmental  Report  2016)  

•  Are  improvements  primarily  structural  (e.g.,  farm  size,  STA  acreage,  etc.)  or  due  to  farmer  collec*ve  ac*on  (e.g.,  willingness,  decisions  and  ac)on  of  each  farm  

to  reduce  pumping  and  implement  BMPs  effec)vely)?  

Landon Yoder

GOALS FOR 2016 What goals does the group have that can be

included in the 2016 NSF report?

2: Water use, quality and BMPs in the EAA Everglades  Agricultural  Area  •  450,000  acres  of  cul)va)on  

•  Sugarcane,  vegetables,  sod,  rice  

•  SFWMD  Works  of  the  District  Permits  (WY  2015)  

•  187  farms  (Basin  IDs)  •  207  on-­‐farm  water  quality  monitoring  

structures  •  Each  structure:  Daily  data  on  drainage  

volumes,  precipita)on,  and  TP  since  1995  

•  Ins)tu)onal  Analysis;  GIS  Analysis  Landon Yoder

Community Attributes ! Mostly sugarcane growers ! Common professional

culture for farmers and agricultural researchers

Farmers (n=13)

Regulators (n=7)

Ag.Researchers (n=8)

Jointly shape BMP research Conduct BMP trainings

Additional Stakeholders

Other State & Federal Officials (n=3)

Nonprofits & Consultants (n=4)

Biophysical Variables ! Rainfall intensity ! Soil subsidence ! Crop choices

Social & Ecological Outcomes Outcomes influence contextual

factors and interactions

Rules-in-Use ! Must get permit &

implement BMPs ! Delay pumping until 0.5-1

inch of rain

!  Reductions in P levels !  Confidence in BMPs

!  Regulatory buy-in !  Short of restoration goal

Field Interviews

(n=35)

The Institutional Analysis and Development (IAD) framework identifies key variables, interactions, and outcomes (Ostrom 2005).

Contextual Variables

2: Institutional analysis, EAA

Synthesis Paper:

Effects of Sea Level Rise on the Coastal Everglades

Objectives: 1)  Understanding which hydrologic drivers (sea level

rise, rainfall, S12 deliveries, ET) correlate with water chemistry (salinity, nutrients) in Shark River

Slough ecotone

2)  Provide a review of ecosystem changes in the ecotone with sea level rise

Preliminary Results Sea level @ Key West and inflow @ S12

Structures

Shimelis Dessu

Data sources: Flow data: DBHYDRO, SFWMD Sea level: GLOSS- Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level

cfs mm

Preliminary Results

Dessu et al., Poster

Synthesis Efforts

Be sure to highlight the areas where your group’s synthesis addresses the key points from our mid-term review feedback:

1)  How does it address contemporary ecological theory that underpins our hypotheses?

2)  How does it employ and explore the rigor of our transect design and experimental approaches?

3)  How does it make the most of our long-term data and how are sources of uncertainty evaluated?

4)  How does it contribute to model-data synthesis that improve our scientific understanding and power of prediction.

Synthesis Efforts

Effects of Sea Level Rise on the Coastal Everglades

-  Journal target: Climate Change -  Timeline: Draft by June 2016

-  Journal Submission: July 2016

DISCUSSION POINTS

What are some of the issues that need to be addressed?

Synthesis of Ecotone Hydrology with Stakeholder Decisions

Water Group Synthesis Meeting in Year 5 With goal of having papers submitted at time of FCE IV

proposal submission