facts and figures€¦ · report of the f&f committee committee members • javier alonso -...

Facts and FiguresFacts and Figures Committee Report

26/09/2011 1

Patrizia Kern‐FerrettiChairman Facts & Figures CommitteeChairman Facts & Figures Committee

Swiss Reinsurance Company Ltd Paris, September 19, 2011

26/09/2011 2

Report of the F&F Committee Committee Members

• Javier Alonso - Spain

• Dieter Berg - Germany

• Darren Farr - U.K.

P l F d U K• Pamela Frood - U.K.

• Philip Graham - U.K.

Vivian Ho Hong Kong• Vivian Ho - Hong Kong

• Patrizia Kern - Switzerland, Chairman

• Patrick Lecerf - France• Patrick Lecerf France

• Henry Newman - U.S.A.

• Erika Schoch - Alsum

• Astrid Seltmann - Nordic, Secr. and Vice Chairman

• Massimo Spadoni - Italy

326/09/2011

AGENDA

Update on Committee work

Macroeconomic environment

Shipping market

ConclusionConclusion

26/09/2011 4

Facts & FiguresCountry data collection 2010y

526/09/2011

Reported premium volume 22.9 Billion USD


626/09/2011

Reported premium volume 25.3 Billion USD


726/09/2011

Estimated premium volume 30 Billion USD

Report of the F&F Committee Update on Committee workp

data collection September 2011

China Statistics September 2011

F t Sh t S t b 2011 Facts Sheets September 2011

Piracy figures September 2011

Repair Index Follow up IUMI Website September 2011

Cargo presentation Spring Meeting 2012

Cargo Index 2012

M j l i d t b 2012 Major claims database 2012

General Average costs 2012/2013

826/09/2011

AGENDA

Update on committee work


Shipping market


926/09/2011


Global recovery has lost momentum recently due to…

Japanese earthquake

On‐going Euro sovereign debt crisis

Possible further sovereign rating downgrades and impact onPossible further sovereign rating downgrades and impact on confidence

Continuing high commodity prices squeeze real incomes of importers

Process of significant fiscal consolidation underway in some countries

26/09/2011 10


Purchasing Managers Indices (PMI)

60

65

50

55

40

45

30

35

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11

Manufacturing activity slowed sharply

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11

United States Euro area United Kingdom Japan

26/09/2011 11

Sources: Bloomberg, Swiss Re Economic Research & Consulting


Industrial Productiondus a oduc o

Advanced economies are recovering only moderately, while emerging markets grow faster Source: Datastream, CPB (Netherland Bureau for

26/09/2011 12

g g gEconomic policy analysis)


Real GDP growth rates by region (forecasts)ea g o a es by eg o ( o ecas s)

6 00%

8.00%

10.00%

2.00%

4.00%

6.00%US

Eurozone

UK

4 00%

‐2.00%

0.00%2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Japan

Emerging Asia

World

‐8.00%

‐6.00%

‐4.00%

High uncertainty around economic outlook, high risk of recessionEmerging markets remain more robust

26/09/2011 13

Source: Oxford Economics


Inflation (CPI) forecastsa o ( ) o ecas s

6 00%

7.00%

8.00%

3.00%

4.00%

5.00%

6.00%

US

Eurozone

UK

0.00%

1.00%

2.00%

3.00% UK

Japan

Emerging Asia

Inflation expected to remain well behaved in the short term

‐2.00%

‐1.00%

%2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Inflation expected to remain well behaved in the short term

Longer‐term outlook more uncertain due to very expansionarymonetary policies and high debt burdens

26/09/2011 14

Source: Oxford Economicsy p g


Growth in volume of world trade and GDPo o u e o o d ade a d

2.000

1.600

1.700

1.800

1.900 World volumes

World GDP

Average GDP

Exports Average

1 200

1.300

1.400

1.500

1.000

1.100

1.200

source: IMF IN dexed at 2000

Year 2000 = Index 1.000

26/09/2011 15

Source: IMF


Export Volume Indexpo o u e de

300

350

200

250

Asia

Euro Area

Latin America

50

100

150Latin America

United States

World

Fi i l i i l d t dd d i t l

0

50

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Financial crisis led to a sudden drop in export volumes

Sharp rebound in trade especially in emerging marketsSource: CPB (Netherland Bureau for

)

26/09/2011 16

Economic policy analysis)


Volume of world merchandise exportso u e o o d e c a d se e po s

300

350

200

250

Export Volume

100

150

Trend (1990 ‐2007)

50

100

90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11

Level of world exports will likely remain well below trend, reflecting legacy of financial crisis and global recession

26/09/2011 17

Source: WTO Secretariat


l d fComplete uncertainty around forecasts

In particular, downside risks related top ,

Escalation of Euro sovereign debt crisis; still no comprehensivesolution in placesolution in placeContinued drag on demand from high unemployment in US andsome European countriesRi k f h i i i k d h iblRisk of overheating in some emerging markets and the possibleassociated sharp policy tighteningRenewed oil price spike (perhaps linked to further tensions in Middle East)

26/09/2011 18

AGENDA



Shipping market


26/09/2011 19

Shipping market

Fleet Capacity

2,25032,000

Tanker Fleet Bulkcarrier Fleet Containership/MPPs Fleets Deliveries Scrapping

1,500

1,750

2,000

20 000

24,000

28,000 No. of delivel

s

750

1,000

1,250

12,000

16,000

20,000 veries and scNo.

of V

esse

0

250

500

0

4,000

8,000

crapping

00

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

*

* 2011 data is year-to-date.

26/09/2011 20

Source: Clarkson Research, August 2011.

Shipping market

Value of Newbuildings (by Vessel Type) Value of Newbuildings (by Country/Region

140

Value of Newbuildings (by Vessel Type) Value of Newbuildings (by Country/Region of Build)

140 0

160.0

80

100

120

billi

on

80 0

100.0

120.0

140.0

billi

on

20

40

60

US$

b

20 0

40.0

60.0

80.0

US$

0

20

anke

rs

Bulk

ers

ntai

ner/

MPP

Gas

Oth

ers

0.0

20.0

Chi

na

th K

orea

Japa

n

Taiw

an

ther

Asi

a

Euro

pe

Bra

zil

USA

Oth

ers

Ta B

Con M O

Sou Ot

26/09/2011 21


Shipping market

Demolition as % of Tanker and Bulker Fleets (in terms of DWT)

7%

Tankers Bulkcarriers

( )

5%

6%

et

2%

3%

4%

% o

f Fle

e

0%

1%

2%

0%

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

*

* 2011 data is year-to-date.

26/09/2011 22


Shipping market

Average Age of the World Fleet 2000‐2011

26

Total Tanker Bulkcarrier Containership/MPP Gas

20

22

24

ge

16

18

20

Ave

rage

Ag

10

12

14

10

Jan

00

Jan

01

Jan

02

Jan

03

Jan

04

Jan

05

Jan

06

Jan

07

Jan

08

Jan

09

Jan

10

Jan

11

26/09/2011 23


Shipping market

Freight Rates

70000

80000

90000

50000

60000

70000

20000

30000

40000

0

10000

n 00

n 01

n 02

n 03

n 04

n 05

n 06

n 07

n 08

n 09

n 10

n 11

Jan

Jan

Jan

Jan

Jan

Jan

Jan

Jan

Jan

Jan

Jan

Jan

Historical Bulkcarrier Earnings Tanker Freight Rates

26/09/2011 24


Shipping market

ClarkSea Index

45

50

55

30

35

40

000/

day

10

15

20

25$'0

0

5

10

000

001

002

003

004

005

006

007

008

009

010

011

20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20

Despite rebound in trade, freight rates have remained low

26/09/2011 25


Shipping market

Baltic dry index

10'000

12'000 index

6'000

8'000

4'000

6'000

0

2'000

96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11

l b

Continued low freight rates indicative of excess shipping capacity

26/09/2011 26

Source: Bloombergcapacity

Lloyd's shipping Index & MSCI World

2005=100

160

180

200

100

120

140

60

80

100

0

20

40

MSCI World Index: over 6'000 world equity stocks from 24 countries

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Lloyds List Top 50 Shipping Index MSCI World Index

MSCI World Index: over 6 000 world equity stocks, from 24 countries

27

AGENDA



Shi i k tShipping market

Conclusion

26/09/2011 28

Conclusion

Global economic recovery has lost momentum. In particular, growth in major economies has slowed noticeably over recent months.

Our economies are facing extreme uncertainties. The situation has dramatically worsened recently. If we see sovereign defaults, y y g ,countries leaving the Euro or a second recession, times will get highly unpredictable.

Looking ahead, the most likely path for global trade and activity is for continued growth. But the upturn will look and feel very modest,

i ll i th W tespecially in the West.

26/09/2011 29

Conclusion

Following recent natural catastrophes a hardening of the market is likely which would lead to growth of the insurance industry. Even if insurance is not in the centre of the crisis it is not isolated from it:insurance is not in the centre of the crisis, it is not isolated from it:

‐ Low interest rates are a major threat to life insurance.I fl i i h lif i E i ll i i i‐ Inflation is more a threat to non life insurance. Especially in marine itcan have a very big impact on claim cost.

Excess supply in shipping is set to continue due to new capacity coming on stream

26/09/2011 30

THANK YOU

Special thanks to LMIU, Clarkson Research Service and Swiss Re Economic Research for their statistical Input

3126/09/2011

facts and figures€¦ · report of the f&f committee committee members • javier alonso -...

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