export value thai export to major destinations asian ...€¦ · 1 75 85 95 105 115 125 jan 2015...
TRANSCRIPT
1
75
85
95
105
115
125
Jan2015
Jul Jan2016
Jul Jan2017
Jul Jan2018
Jul Jan2019
Jul Jan2020
Thai Export to Major Destinations
60708090
100110120130140150160
Jan2015
Jul Jan2016
Jul Jan2017
Jul Jan2018
Jul Jan2019
Jul Jan2020
Asian Export PerformanceIndex sa, 3mma (Jan 2015=100) Ex.gold
Index sa, 3mma (Jan 2015=100)
EUJapan*
China
ASEAN5
ME
* ex. aircraft, other vehicles and other manufacturing goods** ex other manufacturing products
US**
Feb 2020 = 20.3 Bn USD
Ex. gold = 18.8 Bn USD
%MoM calculated from seasonally adjusted data. P = Preliminary data.Note: Data above are recorded by custom basis, except total export value which is recorded by BOP basis. Custom basis considers recording as goods pass through Customs, while BOP basis considers changes in ownership between residents and non-residents.Source: Compiled from Customs Department’s data
%YoYShare
20192019P
2019P2020P
H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Feb MarMar
(%MoM)
Agriculture 6.8 -8.4 -3.6 -13.4 -8.9 -17.8 -10.5 -10.1 -6.4 8.9Fishery 0.8 -6.5 -12.0 -1.2 -2.9 0.5 -6.7 2.0 -8.3 -3.3Manufacturing 87.8 -3.9 -3.5 -4.2 -4.9 -3.5 -3.0 -9.2 1.2 3.5
Agro-manufacturing 12.7 -0.0 -2.3 2.2 -0.7 5.2 3.3 3.8 3.4 -1.0Electronics 14.2 -6.5 -10.4 -2.7 -6.0 0.8 5.3 5.0 11.9 9.5Electrical
Appliances 5.5 1.3 -1.3 4.3 2.8 5.9 5.9 4.2 2.9 -0.9
Automotive 15.1 -3.3 -3.2 -3.3 -0.5 -6.3 -7.2 1.2 -21.2 -14.0Machinery &
Equipment 8.4 -6.3 -4.8 -7.7 -7.2 -8.2 -8.9 -6.3 -15.9 -5.9
Petroleum Related 11.4 -15.0 -10.5 -19.3 -17.9 -20.7 -9.9 -8.8 -13.6 -6.1Total (BOP Basis) 100.0 -3.2 -4.0 -2.5 -0.0 -4.9 1.5 3.6 -2.2 -2.8
Ex. Gold -4.8 -4.9 -4.7 -4.8 -4.7 -3.1 -1.3 -6.5 -2.1Ex. Gold &
Petroleum Related -3.3 -4.1 -2.4 -2.7 -2.1 -2.2 -0.3 -5.5 -1.6
Export ValueMar 2020 = 20.9 Bn USD
Ex. gold = 19.6 Bn USD
1) ( ) represents export share in 20182) Firm size is classified by their export share in 2013-2018;
Large Exporter (> 0.1%), Medium (0.01% - 0.1%), Small (< 0.01%)3) Data include only firms that registered to the Department of Business Development4) Data exclude Aircrafts, ships, floating structures, and locomotive sector
Export by Firm SizeIndex sa, 3mma (2015=100)
CLMV
Note: Thai export excludes gold. Indonesian export excludes oil&gas.Source: CEIC, Customs Department, calculated by Bank of Thailand
PHINDOMY
THTW
CN
SGKR
9095
100105110115120125130
Jan-
15
Jun-
15
Nov
-15
Apr-1
6
Sep-
16
Feb-
17
Jul-1
7
Dec-
17
May
-18
Oct
-18
Mar
-19
Aug-
19
Jan-
20
TotalLarge Exporter (52%)Medium Exporter (32%)Small Exporter (16%)
Mar 20
2
Import Value IndexIndex sa, 3mma (Jan 2015=100)
* Regrouping to include vehicle parts, which appear in “others” in the accompanying table.
40
60
80
100
120
140
Jan2015
Jul Jan2016
Jul Jan2017
Jul Jan2018
Jul Jan2019
Jul Jan2020
Total imports Consumer goodsRaw materials ex. fuel* FuelCapital goods
80
90
100
110
120
130
Jan2015
Jul Jan2016
Jul Jan2017
Jul Jan2018
Jul Jan2019
Jul Jan2020
Value Quantity Price
Index sa, 3mma (Jan 2015=100)
%YoYShare
20192019P
2019P 2020P
H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Feb MarMar
(%MoM)
Consumer 11.1 2.6 0.9 4.3 8.9 0.1 -1.5 -9.0 -5.9 4.4
Raw material &
Intermediate54.8 -6.8 -3.3 -10.3 -7.0 -13.6 -0.1 -6.8 6.4 13.3
o/w Fuel 14.9 -11.2 -1.2 -20.0 -11.5 -28.2 4.9 -13.4 9.6 34.1
o/w Raw mat &
Interm ex. Fuel 39.9 -5.1 -4.1 -6.1 -5.1 -7.2 -2.1 -4.0 5.0 6.0
Capital 23.5 -2.1 -7.1 3.0 4.1 2.0 -4.1 -12.8 -7.6 31.8
Others 10.7 -5.6 6.5 -15.8 -29.3 3.8 -6.4 36.8 69.1 25.1
Total (BOP Basis) 100.0 -5.4 -3.5 -7.2 -6.8 -7.6 -0.9 -7.8 4.4 17.8
Ex. Gold -3.9 -2.4 -5.5 -2.6 -8.3 -1.4 -7.8 1.3 13.8
Ex.
Gold&Fuel-2.3 -2.6 -2.0 -0.5 -3.6 -2.8 -6.5 -0.6 9.8
%MoM calculated from seasonally adjusted data. P = Preliminary data.Note: 1/ Data above are recorded by custom basis, except total import value which is recorded by BOP basis. Custom basis considers recording as goods pass through Customs, while BOP basis considers changes in ownership between residents and non-residents. 2/ Import of consumer goods In July includes temporarily imported jewellery for exhibition but is excluded in the total import value in BOP basis due to no changes in ownership.Source: Compiled from Customs Department’s data
Import ValueFeb 2020 = 14.9 Bn USD
Ex.Gold = 14.5 Bn USD
Mar 2020 = 18.6 Bn USD
Ex.Gold = 17.6 Bn USD
3
80
90
100
110
Jan2014
Jul Jan2015
Jul Jan2016
Jul Jan2017
Jul Jan 2018
Jul Jan 2019
Jul Jan 2020
Industrial Electricity Consumption*
Quantity of Imported Raw Materials
Index of Work Hours in Manufacturing (3mma)
Manufacturing Production Index (MPI)
Note: the new MPI series as adjusted by the OIE (coverage and base year at 2016)R = 2019 Revision P = Preliminary dataSource: Office of Industrial Economics and seasonally adjusted by Bank of ThailandProduction index of petroleum does not include the production of diesel B10 and B20
(%YoY)Share2016R 2019
2019 2020
H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Feb MarP %MoM
sa
Food & Beverages 19.9 -0.6 -0.3 -1.0 1.2 -2.9 -11.0 -7.7 -19.2 -7.0Automotives 13.9 -5.6 2.1 -12.9 -5.6 -20.0 -18.8 -18.6 -24.3 -5.9
- Passenger Cars 4.8 -5.4 3.6 -13.6 -6.8 -20.3 -19.9 -17.3 -22.1 -5.2
- Commercial Vehicles 7.2 -5.6 2.4 -13.4 -4.7 -21.6 -18.8 -20.6 -26.7 -4.6
- Engine 1.3 -7.5 -4.7 -10.2 -5.8 -14.7 -14.4 -12.5 -21.2 -7.4
Petroleum 9.6 -5.7 0.2 -11.4 -7.4 -15.2 -4.3 -0.4 -8.7 -6.6Chemicals 9.2 0.2 -0.6 1.1 1.6 0.6 -0.2 1.7 0.0 3.6Rubbers & Plastics 8.9 -7.2 -5.6 -8.8 -9.7 -7.9 -5.5 -2.6 -7.6 -4.1Cement & Construction 5.5 -1.2 0.2 -2.6 -3.8 -1.4 -0.1 6.1 -5.6 -8.3
IC & Semiconductors 5.5 -5.8 -3.1 -8.4 -12.2 -4.1 1.4 5.4 2.3 -0.9
Electrical Appliances 3.8 5.0 5.0 4.9 1.9 8.0 5.8 7.4 0.7 -3.6Textiles & Apparels 3.5 -7.2 -4.8 -9.5 -8.9 -10.0 -4.6 1.2 -10.1 -9.7Hard Disk Drive 3.4 -5.3 -14.3 3.8 0.5 7.3 6.9 -1.1 10.2 4.7
Others 16.7 -5.6 -5.6 -5.6 -6.2 -5.1 -4.5 -2.4 -9.8 -5.5
MPI 100.0 -3.6 -1.8 -5.5 -4.2 -6.8 -6.6 -4.2 -11.2 -4.6
MPI sa ∆% from last
period100.0 - -2.8 -3.0 -1.8 -2.8 -1.2 -0.8 -4.6 -
Capacity Utilization (SA) - 66.0 67.4 64.7 65.7 63.7 63.8 64.6 61.8 -
* The latest month was estimated by the BOT
Index sa(Jan 2014 = 100)
MPI Classified by Export Share
Index sa(Jan 2014 = 100)
Other Indicators of Manufacturing Production
70
80
90
100
110
120
Jan2014
Jul Jan2015
Jul Jan2016
Jul Jan2017
Jul Jan 2018
Jul Jan 2019
Jul Jan 2020
Export<30% 30%<Export<60% Export>60%
Sources: NSO, OIE, Customs Department and seasonally adjusted by Bank Of Thailand
Sources: Office of Industrial Economics , calculated by Bank of Thailand
-3.2 %
-6.2 %-5.9 %
%MoM sa
%MoM sa
-6.5 %
20.5 %
-1.1 %
4
4,000
4,500
5,000
5,500
6,000
6,500
7,000
707580859095
100105
Jan2014
Jul Jan2015
Jul Jan2016
Jul Jan2017
Jul Jan2018
Jul Jan2019
Jul Jan2020
Construction Materials Index
Permitted Construction Area (RHS)
Investment in Machinery and Equipment Investment in Construction1,000 m2
9mmaIndex sa
(Jan 2014=100) Index sa
(Jan 2014 = 100)
60
80
100
120
140
Jan2014
Jul Jan2015
Jul Jan2016
Jul Jan2017
Jul Jan2018
Jul Jan2019
Jul Jan2020
Real Imports of Capital GoodsDomestic Machinery SalesCar Registered for Investment
% YoY 20192019 2020
H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Feb MarP %MoM
Permitted Construction Area (9mma) -3.9 -1.2 -6.5 -6.2 -6.9 -2.1 -2.2 -1.7 0.9
Construction Materials Index -0.6 1.4 -2.6 -3.4 -1.9 -0.9 3.2 -2.6 -3.8
Real Imports of Capital Goods -1.0 0.1 -2.0 -1.0 -3.0 -9.2 -15.2 -10.8 0.1
Real Domestic Machinery Sales -5.5 -3.8 -7.2 -5.6 -8.9 0.2 1.5 -1.3 -2.5
Newly Registered Motor Vehicles for Investment -3.0 2.4 -8.7 -2.5 -15.4 -11.7 -8.4 -8.0 -2.2
Private Investment Index -2.7 -1.2 -4.1 -2.7 -5.2 -6.6 -6.9 -7.8 -1.0
Private Investment Indicators
Note: All data is in real terms.Source: Department of Land Transport, Customs Department, Revenue Department, calculated by Bank of Thailand
Note: All data is in real terms.Source: NSO, Department of Public Works and Town & Country Planning, calculated by Bank of Thailand
Note: %MoM is calculated from seasonally adjusted data P = Preliminary DataSource: Bank of Thailand
Note: (1) Business credits : net changes in outstanding loans extended by other depository corporations, other financial corporations, non-residents and others;
(2) Debt : net changes in outstanding bonds (market value);
(3) Equity : new issuance at par value
Sources: Bank of Thailand, ThaiBMA, SET
Sources of Corporate Financing Billion baht
-150-100-50
050
100150200
Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan
Business Credits (SA) Equity Debt 3MMA
2017 2018 2019 2020
5
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug
avg. FY2017-19 FY2019 FY2020
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug
avg. FY2017-19 FY2019 FY2020
Mar
13.9%
Mar
12.2%
Billion baht Central Government Current Expenditure(Excl. Subsidies/Grants and Other)
Central Government Capital Expenditure(Ex. Subsidies/Grants and Other)
Billion baht
Note: P = Preliminary data 1/ Includes cash payments for operating and purchase of non-financial assets, except loan repayments 2/ Excludes loan principal and interest payment
Fiscal Position (Cash basis)
Source: Comptroller General’s Department, Fiscal Policy Office and Bank of Thailand
0
10
20
30
40
Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug
avg. FY2018-19 FY2019 FY2020
State Owned Enterprises Capital ExpenditureBillion baht
Mar
11.1%
Billion baht FY2018 FY2019FY2019 FY2020
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Jan Feb Mar
Revenue 2,513 2,538 615 551 777 595 649 537 199 165 173
(%YoY) (6.8) (1.0) (12.8) (2.3) (2.5) (-11.3) (5.5) (-2.5) (-4.0) (-3.2) (0.0)
Expenditure1/ 2,882 2,975 924 719 654 679 796 758 216 186 356
(%YoY) (3.1) (3.2) (-2.2) (19.9) (-10.5) (11.9) (-13.9) (5.4) (-26.4) (-6.9) (58.0)
Budgetary B/L -368 -437 -309 -168 124 -83 -147 -221 -17 -21 -182
Non-Budgetary B/L -28 127 -28 -21 123 53 -126 -15 10 -2 -23
Cash B/L (CG) -396 -310 -337 -190 247 -30 -273 -236 -8 -23 -205
Primary balance 2/ -258 -159 -274 -178 313 -20 -207 -227 -5 -23 -200
Net Financing 506 190 84 99 -38 45 76 111 29 28 54
Treasury B/L 633 513 380 289 497 513 316 872 338 342 191
6
%YoY 2019
2019 2020
H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Q1P Feb MarP%MoM
sa
Non-durables index 2.3 3.1 1.5 1.7 1.2 1.1 1.6 0.7 -0.6
Semi-durables index 0.5 1.2 -0.1 0.7 -0.8 -1.1 -2.7 -1.2 3.3Durables index -2.0 2.7 -6.2 -3.1 -8.8 -12.0 -8.7 -22.0 -12.8
Services index 2.8 3.0 2.6 2.1 3.1 -9.5 -8.2 -21.1 -11.5
(less) Net tourist spending 0.0 -0.3 0.3 3.2 -2.4 -40.6 -48.5 -75.0 -26.7
PCI 2.5 3.4 1.6 1.3 1.9 2.0 5.4 -0.6 -4.8
90100110120130140150160
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
Jan2014
Jul Jan2015
Jul Jan2016
Jul Jan2017
Jul Jan2018
Jul Jan2019
Jul Jan2020
Nielsen’s FMCG Index sa, 3mmaFuel Index, sa (RHS)Fuel Index sa, 3mma (RHS)
80
90
100
110
120
Jan2014
Jul Jan2015
Jul Jan2016
Jul Jan2017
Jul Jan2018
Jul Jan2019
Jul Jan2020
Semi-durable Index sa,3mma
Durable Index sa, 3mma
Jan 2014 = 100
Private Consumption Indicators
Note: * Comprises of the VAT on hotel and restaurant sector and the sale of transportation sector** Expenditure of non-resident in Thailand subtracted by expenditure of resident abroad
Source: Bank of Thailand
Nielsen’s FMCG Index & Fuel Index
Durable and Semi-durable Indices
Jan 2014 = 100 Jan 2014 = 100
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
Jan2014
Jul Jan2015
Jul Jan2016
Jul Jan2017
Jul Jan2018
Jul Jan2019
Jul Jan2020
Service Index sa, 3mma
Net tourist spending Index sa, 3mma (RHS)
Jan 2014 = 100Jan 2014 = 100
Service Index* & Net Tourist Spending Index**
Source: The Nielsen company and Department of Energy Business, calculated by Bank of Thailand
Source: Bank of Thailand
Note: %MoM is calculated from seasonally adjusted data P = Preliminary DataSource: Bank of Thailand
7
Source: Office of Agricultural Economics and calculated by Bank of ThailandSource: Office of Agricultural Economics and calculated by Bank of Thailand
30405060708090
100
Jan2014
Jul Jan2015
Jul Jan2016
Jul Jan2017
Jul Jan2018
Jul Jan2019
Jul Jan2020
Total Current
Next 6 months Average 5 years
Consumer Confidence IndexDiffusion Index, sa(Unchanged = 100)
Average 5 years = 76.2
Source: The University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce, calculated by Bank of Thailand
-1.7
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
Jan2017
Apr Jul2017
Oct Jan2018
Apr Jul2018
Oct Jan2019
Apr Jul2019
Oct Jan2020
Paddy Rice Sugarcane CassavaRubber Fruit Oil PalmLivestock Shrimp OthersTotal Farm Income
Farm Income
Contribution to Growth: Farm Income%YoY
(%YoY) 20192019 2020
H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Feb Mar
Nominal farm
incomeP1.2 1.7 1.0 3.7 -0.4 2.0 3.8 -1.7
Agricultural
productionP-0.7 0.8 -1.8 1.4 -3.8 -6.3 -4.5 -9.6
Agricultural
price1.9 0.9 2.9 2.3 3.5 8.8 8.7 8.7
Nominal Farm Income
Note: Farm income does not include government subsidies and transfers. P = Preliminary dataSource: Office of Agricultural Economics and calculated by Bank of Thailand
Source: Office of Agricultural Economics and calculated by Bank of Thailand
Source: NSO, Office of Agricultural Economics and calculated by Bank of Thailand
0
0
0
0
0
0
Jan2014
Jul Jan2015
Jul Jan2016
Jul Jan2017
Jul Jan2018
Jul Jan2019
Jul Jan2020
Non-Farm Real Total Earning%YoY
8
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Jan2015
Jul Jan2016
Jul Jan2017
Jul Jan2018
Jul Jan2019
Jul Jan2020
Total China (28%) Malaysia (10%)East Asia ex. CN MY (30%) Europe ex. Russia (13%) Russia (4%)India (5%)
20192019 2020
YTDH1 H2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Feb MarP
No. of tourists (’000) 39,797 19,769 20,028 9,696 10,332 6,692 2,062 819 6,692
%YoY 4.2 1.8 6.8 7.2 6.4 -38.0 -42.8 -76.4 -38.0
%QoQsa, %MoMsa - - - -6.4 -9.4 -39.0 -42.8 -50.7 -
Index sa(Jan 2015 = 100)
Tourists Classified by Nationality
Note: ( ) denotes share of total tourist arrivals in 2019 P = Preliminary dataSource: Ministry of Tourism and Sports, calculated by Bank of Thailand
9
Labor Market Indicators
Source: Labor Force Survey (NSO), calculated by BOT
%YOY2019 2019 2020
H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Feb Mar
Unemployment rate
(sa)1.0 1.0 1.0
1.0
(1.0)
1.0
(1.0)
1.0
(1.0)
1.1
(1.1)
1.0
(1.0)
Employed persons (%YoY)
(%QoQ, %MoMsa3mma)-0.7 0.3 -1.7
-2.1
(-1.3)
-1.1
(0.7)
-0.7
(0.1)
-0.4
(0.2)
-1.2
(-0.2)
Underemployment rate 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8
EmploymentThousand persons sa, 3mma
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000
20,000
22,000
24,000
26,000
28,000
30,000
Jan2014
Jul Jan2015
Jul Jan2016
Jul Jan2017
Jul Jan2018
Jul Jan2019
Jul Jan2020
Non-Agriculture (sa, 3mma) Non-Agriculture (sa)
Agriculture (sa, 3mma) (RHS) Agriculture (sa) (RHS)
Not in Labor Force (sa, 3mma) (RHS) Not in Labor Force (sa) (RHS)
Source: Labor Force Survey (NSO), calculated by BOT
Thousand persons sa, 3mma
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
Jan2014
Jul Jan2015
Jul Jan2016
Jul Jan2017
Jul Jan2018
Jul Jan2019
Jul Jan2020
Raw food (15.69%)Energy (11.75%)Core Inflation (72.56%)
0
1
2
3
Jan2014
Jul Jan2015
Jul Jan2016
Jul Jan2017
Jul Jan2018
Jul Jan2019
Jul Jan2020
Rent (19.62%)Food & Beverage (28.17%)Non-Food & Beverage ex. Rent (52.21%)
Sources: Ministry of Commerce calculated by Bank of Thailand
Core inflation contributionHeadline inflation contribution%YoY %YoY
Mar-0.54%
Mar0.54%
( ) Share in Core Inflation
( ) Share in Headline Inflation
Sources: Ministry of Commerce calculated by Bank of Thailand
10
Source: Bank of Thailand P = Preliminary data E = Estimated data
Balance of Payments
Billion USD 2019P2019P 2020P
H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Feb MarE YTD
Trade Balance 26.6 12.7 13.9 8.0 5.9 8.0 5.4 2.3 8.0
Exports (f.o.b.) 243.0 120.5 122.5 63.3 59.2 60.9 20.3 20.9 60.9
%YoY -3.2 -4.0 -2.5 0.0 -4.9 1.5 3.6 -2.2 1.5
Imports (f.o.b.) 216.4 107.8 108.6 55.3 53.2 52.8 14.9 18.6 52.8
%YoY -5.4 -3.5 -7.2 -6.8 -7.6 -0.9 -7.8 4.4 -0.9
Net Services, Income & Transfers 11.3 5.2 6.1 1.7 4.4 1.5 0.0 -1.6 1.5
Current Account 37.9 17.9 20.0 9.7 10.3 9.5 5.4 0.7 9.5
Capital and Financial Account -12.9 -7.6 -5.3 -1.1 -4.1 -5.3 -4.4 -3.1 -5.3
Overall Balance 13.6 5.6 8.0 6.8 1.3 4.5 -0.6 -0.8 4.5
11
Millions of USD 2019P 2019P 2020P
H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Feb MarE YTD1. Assets -16,549 -9,348 -7,201 -219 -6,981 -1,966 -1,341 -969 -1,966TDI -14,017 -8,256 -5,761 -3,909 -1,852 -3,495 -473 -1,742 -3,495- Equity -3,627 -3,176 -451 -389 -62 -1,752 -267 -1,141 -1,752- Reinvestment of earnings -971 -752 -219 -207 -12 -375 -125 -125 -375
Thai portfolio investment -7,753 -1,873 -5,880 -2,622 -3,258 -171 -879 1,317 -171- Equity security investment -1,794 -121 -1,673 -788 -885 864 -463 1,895 864 - Debt security investment -5,959 -1,751 -4,207 -1,834 -2,373 -1,034 -415 -578 -1,034
Loans 828 1,237 -409 728 -1,137 -599 -183 323 -599Other investments 4,392 -457 4,849 5,584 -735 2,298 193 -867 2,298 - Trade credits -832 -590 -242 -264 22 531 164 -88 531 - Deposits abroad -435 -3,702 3,267 4,905 -1,637 1,493 196 -881 1,493
2. Liabilities 3,624 1,708 1,916 -923 2,839 -3,350 -3,045 -2,105 -3,350FDI 6,316 2,744 3,571 4,425 -854 3,676 272 2,296 3,676 - Equity 3,163 775 2,388 2,529 -142 1,912 72 1,476 1,912 - Reinvestment of earnings 3,889 2,629 1,260 87 1,173 1,576 525 525 1,576
Foreign portfolio investment -959 1,287 -2,247 -3,685 1,439 -6,229 -883 -5,568 -6,229- Equity security investment 42 840 -798 -1,117 319 -3,651 -652 -2,442 -3,651- Debt security investment -1,002 447 -1,449 -2,568 1,119 -2,578 -231 -3,126 -2,578
Loans 2,688 -1,064 3,752 801 2,952 135 -1,802 1,078 135 Other investments -4,421 -1,260 -3,161 -2,464 -697 -932 -633 89 -932- Trade credits -1,842 -623 -1,219 -1,313 95 -256 -463 33 -256- Deposits abroad 945 838 107 -101 208 664 71 623 664
Total financial flows (1+2) -12,925 -7,640 -5,285 -1,143 -4,142 -5,316 -4,386 -3,074 -5,316
Net Financial Flows
Source: Bank of Thailand P = Preliminary data E = Estimated data
12
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Q12
019
Q22
019
Q32
019
Q42
019
Q12
020
Mar
-20
Reserves/Short-term DebtTimes
Mar 2020E
3.8
80
90
100
110
120
130
Jan2014
Jul Jan2015
Jul Jan2016
Jul Jan2017
Jul Jan2018
Jul Jan2019
Jul Jan2020
NEER REER USDTHB
Sources: Bank of Thailand and Reuters
% p.a. Exchange Rate Volatility (vis-à-vis USD)
Index (Jan 2014 = 100)
Apr 2020(Average data
until 24 Apr 2020)THB Appreciation
Mar-20109.0
Apr-20118.0
Apr-20100.8
Sources: Reuters, Bank of Thailand
-9.6%
-4.6%-4.0% -3.1% -2.5%
-2.0% -1.9%
-0.5% -0.5% -0.3%
0.1%1.4% 2.4%
-3.4%
0.3%
-2.3%
-1.2%-1.7%
-0.3% -0.6%
0.6%
-0.6% -0.8%
0.1%
-1.7%
-0.4%
-12%-10%-8%-6%-4%-2%0%2%4%
IDR GBP INR MYR THB KRW SGD PHP VND CNY TWD EUR JPY
Avg of Mar 20 compared to avg of Feb 20
Avg of Apr 20 compared to avg of Mar 20
Sources: Reuters, calculated by Bank of ThailandNote: Avg-period data, + = Appreciation against USD
Exchange Rate Movement
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
29-D
ec-1
723
-Jan
-18
13-F
eb-1
87-
Mar
-18
28-M
ar-1
823
-Apr
-18
15-M
ay-1
86-
Jun-
1827
-Jun
-18
18-J
ul-1
810
-Aug
-18
3-Se
p-18
24-S
ep-1
816
-Oct
-18
7-N
ov-1
828
-Nov
-18
21-D
ec-1
815
-Jan
-19
5-Fe
b-19
27-F
eb-1
920
-Mar
-19
11-A
pr-1
98-
May
-19
30-M
ay-1
921
-Jun
-19
12-J
ul-1
95-
Aug-
1927
-Aug
-19
17-S
ep-1
98-
Oct
-19
31-O
ct-1
921
-Nov
-19
16-D
ec-1
98-
Jan-
2029
-Jan
-20
20-F
eb-2
012
-Mar
-20
2-Ap
r-20
24-A
pr-2
0
Latest data 24 Apr 2020