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LIVE INTERACTIVE LEARNING @ YOUR DESKTOP
Thursday, April 8, 20106:30 p.m. - 8:00 p.m. Eastern time
Exploring U.S. Regional Climate Change Impacts: Why It Matters to You
By: Dr. Steve McNulty and Vicki Arthur
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Section I
Exploring U.S. Regional Climate Change Impacts: Why It Matters to You
Dr. Steven McNultyUSDA Forest Service
North Carolina State [email protected]
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What is Climate Change??
Change in Air Temperature from the average of the 1950’s-1980’s compared to the 1990’s
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Earth MoonGreen House Gas % in the Atmos 5 0
Distance from Sun (millions of km)
Day/Night Temperature Range (oC)
Average Temperature (oC)107/-153
-2321
26-17
149 149
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Mercury VenusGreen House Gas % in the Atmos <1 95
Distance from Sun (millions of Km)
Daily Temperature Range (oC)
Average Temperature (oC) 450
450/450
400
58
420/-150
108
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Poll Question
According to the historical data, is climate change cyclical?
√ Yes X No
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400,000 Years of Antarctic CO2 and Temperature Change
Source: Climate Change Impacts on the US, NAST, 2001
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Northern Hemisphere Carbon Emissions
Source: Climate Change Impacts on the US, NAST, 2000
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Atmospheric CO2 Concentrations
Source: Climate Change Impacts on the US, NAST, 2000
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Northern Hemisphere Surface Temperature
Source: Climate Change Impacts on the US, NAST, 2000
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“Simulations of the response to natural forcings alone … do not explain the warming in the second half of the century” SPM
Stott et al, Science 2000
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“..model estimates that take into account both greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosols are consistent with observations over this period” SPM
Stott et al, Science 2000
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What other Factors could increase or decrease Global Warming
in the long and short term?
[Type in the chat]
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Let’s Pause Two Minutes for
Questions from the Audience
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Section II
How is/will climate change be impacting you?
Regional impacts
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IPCC world CC map
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Alaska and Canada
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Poll QuestionWhich of the impacts of climate change might
have a positive, short term effect?A) Forest ProductionB) InsectsC) Sea Ice thinning
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Change in Forest Productivity from 1982 to 1999
Nemani et al., Science June 6th 2003
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Insects
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Spring bud-burst dates for Aspen in Edmonton
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The increase in growing season length over the last 50 years averaged for eight stations in Alaska having the longest and most consistent temperature records.
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Can you think of other potential long and short term impacts of climate change for this region?
[Type in the Chat]
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Rocky Mountains and Western US
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Large scale (> 400 ac) Wildfires and Air Temperature
From Westerling et al. 2005
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Can you think of other potential long and short term impacts of climate
change for this region?
[Type in the Chat]
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Let’s Pause Two Minutes for
Questions from the Audience
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Eastern US
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Sugar maple
Iverson et. al GTR NE265
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Percent of the continental USA with a much above normal proportion of total annual precipitation from 1-day extreme events
(more than 2 inches or 50.8mm)
Karl et al. 1996
BW 7
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Areas of Soil Erosion By 2030 On UNF
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Loblolly pine
Iverson et. al GTR NE265
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> 25% DECLINE
5%-25% DECLINE
<5% CHANGE
5%-25% INCREASE
Timberland Acreage Shift 1993 – 2040: No Climate Change Baseline
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Timberland Acreage Shifts by 2040 Due to Hadley Climate Change
5%-25% DECLINE
<5% CHANGE
5%-25% INCREASE
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Can you think of other potential long and short term impacts of climate
change for this region?
[Type in the Chat]
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Let’s Pause Two Minutes for
Questions from the Audience
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Coastal Areas
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Results of Sea Level Rise
Gulf Coast Region
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Results of Sea Level Rise
1.5 Meter Rise
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Graphic by Hugo Ahlenius
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BLEACHING OF CORAL REEFS BY OCEAN TEMPS > 85deg F (29 deg C)
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Locations of Coral Reef Bleaching
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Can you think of other potential long and short term impacts of climate
change for this region?
[Type in the Chat]
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Let’s Pause Two Minutes for
Questions from the Audience
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Summary of Impacts
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U.S. Forest ServiceSection I
Education Resources to Help You Bring the
Climate Change Issue Home
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globalchange.gov
U.S. Global Change Research Program
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National Academies of Science
national‐academies.org
www.nas.edu/climatechange
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http://fs.usda.gov/conservationeducation
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Carbon, Oxygen, Water and Shade: Putting a Price on the Benefits of Your School Yard Trees
Vicki ArthurDavid V. Bloniarz
U.S. Forest Service
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i-Tree: Demonstrating That Trees Pay Us Back!
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Itree curriculum:
www.itreetools.org
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www.treebenefits.com
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Natural Inquirer
Forest Service’s
Science Education Journal
www.naturalinquirer.org
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GreenSchools!www.plt.org
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Thanks!
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Thank you to the sponsor of tonight's Web Seminar:
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http://learningcenter.nsta.org
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http://www.elluminate.com
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National Science Teachers AssociationDr. Francis Q. Eberle, Executive Director
Zipporah Miller, Associate Executive Director Conferences and Programs
Al Byers, Assistant Executive Director e-Learning
LIVE INTERACTIVE LEARNING @ YOUR DESKTOP
NSTA Web SeminarsPaul Tingler, Director
Jeff Layman, Technical Coordinator