experiments with rains-nl jan aben. jan aben, experiments with rains-nl, rome, 17-19 may 20062...
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Experiments with RAINS-NL
Jan Aben
Jan Aben, Experiments with RAINS-NL, Rome, 17-19 May 2006 2
Contents
• Features and objectives of RAINS-NL• Illustration of a feature• Exploration of Euro V and Euro VI effects on PM2.5
emissions and concentrations• Conclusions
Jan Aben, Experiments with RAINS-NL, Rome, 17-19 May 2006 3
Features
• Increased spatial resolution (NL domain only)– EMEP based TM’s (50x50 km) OPS based TMs (5x5 km) – high resolution ecosystem and population data
• Sector specific transfer matrices allowing better spatial allocation of control measures
• NO2 concentration
Jan Aben, Experiments with RAINS-NL, Rome, 17-19 May 2006 4
Objectives of RAINS-NL
• Providing a general framework for IA analysis• Detailing RAINS outcomes for the Netherlands• Studying the effects of alternative national strategies,
including the consequences for other countries
Jan Aben, Experiments with RAINS-NL, Rome, 17-19 May 2006 5
Increased resolution in RAINS-NL
RAINS underestimates N-problem in hot spots
Jan Aben, Experiments with RAINS-NL, Rome, 17-19 May 2006 6
Effects of EURO V and VI on NO2 and PM2.5
• NO2 and PM are bottlenecks in Dutch cities
• Traffic is an important source of NOx and PM emissions
• Investigation into the effects of proposed EURO standards on PM2.5 concentrations
Jan Aben, Experiments with RAINS-NL, Rome, 17-19 May 2006 7
Two alternative strategies
• MOBv1: Starts from Commission proposal Euro V for cars and vans (starting ± 2008) and European stimulation of cleaner trucks (Euro IV and V)
• MOBv2: Starts from Commission proposal EURO V for cars and vans and EURO VI (starting ± 2012) for cars and trucks (Ricardo)
Alternative strategies applied to NL, BE, GE, FR, UK
Jan Aben, Experiments with RAINS-NL, Rome, 17-19 May 2006 8
Development of shares of Euro standards
Jan Aben, Experiments with RAINS-NL, Rome, 17-19 May 2006 9
Reduction of NOx emission by road traffic in 2020
Jan Aben, Experiments with RAINS-NL, Rome, 17-19 May 2006 10
Reduction of PM2.5 emission by road traffic in 2020
Jan Aben, Experiments with RAINS-NL, Rome, 17-19 May 2006 11
Effect on PM2.5 concentration in 2020 - NL
Jan Aben, Experiments with RAINS-NL, Rome, 17-19 May 2006 12
Spatial allocation of effect on PM2.5 concentration
RAINS/EMEP underestimates effect of measures for hot spots
Jan Aben, Experiments with RAINS-NL, Rome, 17-19 May 2006 13
PM2.5 concentrations along city streets in 2020
Jan Aben, Experiments with RAINS-NL, Rome, 17-19 May 2006 14
Conclusions
• Euro V and VI are essential measures to reduce PM2.5 (and NO2) in Dutch urban locations (but possibly not sufficient to meet indicative targets everywhere)
• RAINS/EMEP underestimates problems in hot spots• RAINS/EMEP underestimates effects of measures for
hot spots
Jan Aben, Experiments with RAINS-NL, Rome, 17-19 May 2006 15
Jan Aben, Experiments with RAINS-NL, Rome, 17-19 May 2006 16
Increased life expectancy
RAINS-NL RAINS
LE C LE C
MOBv1 +5.4 days -0.22 +4.2 days -0.20
MOBv2 +8.6 days -0.36 +6.8 days -0.34
Jan Aben, Experiments with RAINS-NL, Rome, 17-19 May 2006 17
Effect on NO2-concentration
0.23
0.44
0.38
0.93
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
MOBv1 MOBv2
µg/m3
NL
OTH
Jan Aben, Experiments with RAINS-NL, Rome, 17-19 May 2006 18
Performance OPS