experian automotive quarterly briefingexperian automotive quarterly briefing second quarter 2016...
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©2016 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian and the marks used herein are service marks or registered trademarks ofExperian Information Solutions, Inc. Other product and company names mentioned herein are the trademarks of their respective owners.No part of this copyrighted work may be reproduced, modified, or distributed in any form or manner without the prior written permission of Experian. Experian Public.
Experian Automotive Quarterly Briefing Second quarter 2016 automotive market share trends and registrations
Brad Smith | Director, Automotive Market Statistics
Marty Miller | Senior Product Manager, VIO
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Today’s presentationPart one
Presentation will be available 24-48 hours after Webinar
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What’s on the Road
VIO by model year, segment, age and market share
U.S. light duty vehicles through June 30, 2016
U.S. medium and heavy duty vehicles through June 30, 2016Marty Miller
Senior Product Manager, VIO
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Q2 2016 Registrations
Market trends
Geographic performance
Manufacturer, make and model share
Loyalty, conquest and defection
Session overviewPart two
Brad Smith
Director, Automotive Market Statistics
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U.S. Total Vehicles in Operation = 281.9M
Light Duty
Passenger Cars, Light Trucks, Vans
Cars and GVW Class 1 - 3
Medium & Heavy Duty
Large Vans, Delivery Trucks, Buses,
RVs, Cement Trucks, Semi-Tractors
GVW Class 4 - 8
Power Sports
Motorcycles, All-Terrain,
Utility Task, Snowmobiles
*Q2 2016 now includes Puerto Rico
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Vehicles in
Operation
What’s on the road today?
Light duty vehicles
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Experian Public.
Source: Experian
Automotive as of
June 30, 2016 (U.S.
light duty vehicles
only)
U.S. Vehicles In Operation
Q2 2015
255.6millionVehicles on
the road
Q2 2016
264.1millionVehicles on
the road
17.3*
NEWVEHICLES
DEALER
41.3*
USEDVEHICLES
196.7*
NOCHANGES
8.8*
EXIT
Out of Operation
*In millions;
Q2 2015 excludes Puerto Rico
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VIO change by model year (in millions)Q2 2015 to Q2 2016
New Sales 17.3M
Out of Operation
8.8M
Source: Experian Automotive as of June 30, 2016 (U.S. light duty vehicles only)
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The aftermarket “Sweet Spot” is defined as 6 to 12 model year old vehicles, and because of their age, are out of the general OEM manufacturer warranty for any repairs.
These vehicles are within a time period when more part replacement or services are needed (e.g. shocks, timing belt service, engine repairs) that may be performed by aftermarket service shops which are supplied by aftermarket part manufacturers and retailers.
Defining the Sweet Spot size helps identify the overall market potential, and changes can have implications to those that service it.
“Post Sweet Spot” vehicles are defined as 13 model years old or older, and identify the models where less costs may be spent to service them due to their age and vehicle value.
“Pre Sweet Spot” vehicles are defined as 5 model years old or newer, and identify the incoming models into the Sweet Spot.
The aftermarket “Sweet Spot” overview“Post” and “Pre” Sweet Spot defined
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Trend of total VIO compared to sweet spot volumesVIO by model year (in millions)
86.3M vehicles within “Sweet Spot”
(MY2005 – 2011)
Pre-SweetSpot
Post-SweetSpot
Source: Experian Automotive as of June 30, 2016 (U.S. light duty vehicles only)
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Sweet Spot changingVehicle manufacturer market share age groups
Source: Experian Automotive as of June 30, 2016 (U.S. light duty vehicles only)
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VIO by manufacturer market share
Source: Experian Automotive as of June 30, 2016 (U.S. light duty vehicles only)
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VIO Top 20 segments on the road market share
Source: Experian Automotive as of June 30, 2016 (U.S. light duty vehicles only)
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Vehicle type average ageAverage vehicle age (1967 to current MYs of period) andRolling average vehicle age (first 20 MYs of period)
Source: Experian Automotive as of June 30, 2016 (U.S. light duty vehicles only)
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VIO VocationHow light duty commercial vehicles are used
Source: Experian Automotive as of June 30, 2016 (U.S. light duty vehicles only)
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VIO Vocation – Top makes and modelsLight duty vehicles as of Q2 2016(excludes rental / leasing / dealers)
Source: Experian Automotive as of June 30, 2016 (U.S. light duty vehicles only)
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Vehicles in
Operation
What’s on the road today?
Medium and heavy duty vehicles
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What’s on the road today? VIO by model yearMedium and heavy duty vehicles
31.2% of VIOMY2010+
68.4% of VIOMY2001+
84.8% of VIOMY1996+
Vehicles in operation
Q2 2016
7.0
million
Source: Experian Automotive as of June 30, 2016 (U.S. medium and heavy duty vehicles only)
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Total average ageAverage age by top brand names
Source: Experian Automotive as of June 30, 2016 (U.S. medium and heavy duty vehicles only)
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Top 10 VIO Market share of VocationMedium and heavy duty vehicles
Source: Experian Automotive as of June 30, 2016 (U.S. medium and heavy duty vehicles only)
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U.S. Market Overview
What products are selling?
Who’s buying?
Where is it happening?
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For the first time since the recession, year over year quarterly volumes decline, down 2.3% from Q2 2015
4.4 M4.5 M
3.8 M
2.5 M
3.0 M3.2 M
3.7 M
4.0 M
4.3 M4.5 M
4.4 M
0.0 M
0.5 M
1.0 M
1.5 M
2.0 M
2.5 M
3.0 M
3.5 M
4.0 M
4.5 M
5.0 M
New
Reg
istr
ati
on
Vo
lum
e (
Millio
ns)
New passenger car / light truck registrations through June 2016
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6.9%
58.2%
30.5%
18.8%
-3.7%
-3.9%
-15% -5% 5% 15% 25% 35% 45% 55%
Commercial/Taxi
Dealer Manufacturer
Government
Other
Rental/Lease
Retail
% Change from Q2 2015
Q2 ‘15 vs. Q2 ‘16
Retail market is down 3.9% from Q2 2015 with increases in fleet sales providing a cushion to softening consumer demand
Total new vehicle registrations through June 2016
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10 states accounted for nearly 60% of retail registrations in the first quarter of 2016
New vehicle registrations
Individual buyers
Q2 2016
Source: Experian Automotive registrations Q2 2016
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Most states experienced declines in new vehicle registration as compared to Q2 2015
New vehicle registrations
Individual buyers
Q2 2015 vs. Q2 2016
Source: Experian Automotive registrations Q2 2016
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1.50%
1.70%
1.76%
1.93%
2.22%
2.27%
2.39%
2.39%
2.44%
2.65%
2.68%
2.78%
2.83%
7.01%
7.72%
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10%
CLEVELAND-AKRON (CANTON)
PHOENIX (PRESCOTT)
TAMPA-ST. PETE (SARASOTA)
ATLANTA
MIAMI-FT. LAUDERDALE
WASHINGTON, DC (HAGRSTWN)
HOUSTON
SAN FRANCISCO-OAK-SAN JOSE
BOSTON (MANCHESTER)
DETROIT
DALLAS-FT. WORTH
PHILADELPHIA
CHICAGO
LOS ANGELES
NEW YORK
Market Share by Nielsen DMA®
Los Angeles and Detroit were the only two DMAs in the top 15 to experience year over year increases in registration volume
DMA® is a registered service mark of The Nielsen Company. Used under license.
New vehicle registrations
Individual buyers
Q2 2016
Source: Experian Automotive registrations through Q1 2016
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2.3%
2.6%
2.7%
2.8%
2.9%
3.2%
3.2%
5.5%
5.9%
6.6%
8.2%
9.6%
10.1%
11.4%
16.1%
Mid Range Car - Premium
Small Car - Budget
Sport Car - Touring
Pickup - Small
Van - Mini
Upscale - Near Luxury
SUV - Entry Level
SUV - Lower Mid Range
CUV - Premium
CUV - Mid Range
Mid Range Car - Lower
Mid Range Car - Standard
Small Car - Economy
Pickup - Full Sized
CUV - Entry Level
Top 15 Vehicle Segments
Led by Entry CUV, 10 vehicle segments accounted for approximately 80% of new individual registrations in Q2 2016
Individual new vehicle registrations Q2 2016
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-24.8%
-20.5%
-20.0%
-18.9%
-18.5%
4.7%
6.0%
7.8%
14.1%
26.7%
Alt Power - Hybrid Car
Upscale - Ultra
Sport Car - Upper Premium
Upscale - Luxury
SUV - Premium Large
CUV - Entry Level
Small Car - Budget
SUV - Large
Pickup - Small
CUV - Premium
Q2 2016 % Change from Q2 2015
CUVs and SUV led in year over year growth, while luxury, premium and hybrid segments declined from compared to Q2 2015
Individual new vehicle registrations through June 2016
Minimum 5,000 registrations
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0.58%
0.62%
2.02%
2.11%
2.25%
3.36%
3.87%
4.01%
4.11%
8.24%
11.88%
11.92%
12.00%
15.77%
16.20%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20%
Tata
Mitsubishi
Mazda
Daimler
BMW
VW
Subaru
Kia
Hyundai
Nissan
Honda
Ford
FCA US LLC
Toyota
GM
Share of Individual Registrations
Top 15 Manufacturers (Q1 2016)
General Motors outsold Toyota by 15k units to lead Q2 2016 market share
Individual new vehicle registrations Q2 2016
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2.02%
2.06%
2.08%
2.31%
2.50%
3.13%
3.87%
4.01%
4.11%
5.69%
7.49%
10.79%
10.85%
11.30%
13.14%
Mazda
Lexus
Mercedes-Benz
Dodge
Ram
GMC
Subaru
Kia
Hyundai
Jeep
Nissan
Honda
Chevrolet
Ford
Toyota
Share of Individual Registrations
Top 15 Makes (Q1 2016)
Toyota outsold Ford by over 62k units to lead Q2 2016 brand market share
Individual new vehicle registrations Q2 2016
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1.31%
1.37%
1.48%
1.54%
1.63%
1.79%
1.82%
2.25%
2.26%
2.41%
2.42%
2.55%
2.55%
2.84%
2.87%
Chevrolet Equinox
Toyota Tacoma
Nissan Altima
Jeep Wrangler
Ram 1500
Nissan Rogue
Ford Escape
Toyota Camry
Toyota Corolla
Toyota RAV4
Honda CR-V
Chevrolet Silverado 1500
Honda Accord
Honda Civic
Ford F150
Share of New Individual Registrations
Top 15 Models
With year over year sales up over 20%, Ford F150 led all models in market share
Individual new vehicle registrations Q2 2016
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Loyalty, Conquest & Defection
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Consistent view of activity across all buyers
Captures additions to household fleets
Looks for loyalty first and foremost
Census coverage, findings applicable to dealers of all sizes
Most timely loyalty metric available
Requires an owned vehicle to be registered to another owner
► Creates additional lag in reporting
Registration must occur within 90 days of new vehicle purchase
► Some off lease used vehicles missed due to turn time
Does not capture additions to household fleet
Smaller population, finding not applicable to small dealers
Overview of Loyalty Methodologies
Household Disposal
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68.60%
61.40%
28.80%
23.90%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Lo
yalty R
ate
Household Loyalty Trends
Manufacturer Make Model Lender
As vehicle sales decline, loyalty rates dip
Household Methodology
New to New
Through May 2016
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67.1%
59.9%
27.6%
22.5%
61.4%
54.0%
21.1%
15.4%
54.3%
42.6%
13.3%
3.9%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Manufacturer Make Model Lender
New Certified Used Non-Certified Used
New buyers are the most loyal to their brands, followed buy Certified Used and Non-Certified Used
Household Methodology
June 2015 – May 2016
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48.3%
54.0%
56.8%
57.4%
61.1%
61.5%
63.4%
64.1%
65.2%
65.7%
68.6%
69.0%
69.6%
71.8%
71.9%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%
Mazda
Tata
Porsche
VW
BMW
Hyundai
Nissan
Kia
Honda
Daimler
FCA US LLC
Toyota
Subaru
Ford
GM
Manufacturer Loyalty Rate (Household)
Manufacturer Loyalty Rates
General Motors edged Ford to lead all manufacturers in repurchase loyalty
Household Methodology
New to New
June 2015 – May 2016
Minimum 5,000 RTM
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56.8%
57.0%
61.1%
61.5%
61.6%
61.8%
62.3%
62.8%
63.3%
64.1%
65.0%
65.8%
65.8%
69.6%
70.8%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%
Porsche
Cadillac
BMW
Hyundai
Lexus
Ram
Lincoln
Nissan
Honda
Kia
Toyota
Mercedes-Benz
Chevrolet
Subaru
Ford
Make Loyalty Rate (Household)
Make Loyalty Rates (Top 15)
Ford led all brands with 70.8% of returning owners buying another Ford vehicle
Household Methodology
New to New
June 2015 – May 2016
Minimum 5,000 RTM
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40.40%
40.80%
41.00%
41.10%
42.10%
42.20%
42.60%
43.20%
43.20%
43.70%
44.30%
44.60%
46.30%
46.70%
50.30%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
Cadillac Escalade
Acura RDX
Hyundai Genesis
Ram 3500
Subaru Forester
Kia Soul
Cadillac SRX
Chrysler Town & Country
Chevrolet Silverado 1500
Subaru Outback
Lincoln MKX
Land Rover Range Rover
Lincoln MKZ
Ford F150
Ram 1500
Model Loyalty Rates (Household)
Model Loyalty Rates (Top 15)
Ram 1500 led all models with a 50.3% model loyalty rate
Household Methodology
New to New
June 2015 – May 2016
Minimum 5,000 RTM
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When loyalty does not exist a conquest / defection relationship is present
Conquest is assessed against the purchased vehicle / vehicle attribute
Defection is assessed against the owned vehicle / vehicle attribute
Conquest / defection ratio is the number of conquests divided by the number of defections
Conquest / defection net is the number of conquests less the number of defections
Conquest / Defection Metrics
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0.64
0.74
0.78
0.78
0.84
1.03
1.10
1.13
1.16
1.23
1.43
1.43
1.49
1.70
3.48
0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50 4.00
GM
Toyota
Ford
Mitsubishi
Honda
Nissan
Hyundai
Volvo
FCA US LLC
VW
Mazda
BMW
Daimler
Kia
Subaru
Manufacturer Conquest / Defection Ratio
For every customer lost, Subaru gains nearly 3.5 new customers from other brands
Household Methodology
New to New
June 2015 – May 2016
Minimum 5,000 RTM
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0.4
0.67
0.69
0.8
0.84
0.88
1
1.1
1.16
1.22
1.44
1.51
1.7
1.81
3.48
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4
Dodge
Chevrolet
Toyota
Ford
Honda
Volkswagen
Nissan
Hyundai
GMC
Lexus
BMW
Mercedes-Benz
Kia
Jeep
Subaru
Make Conquest / Defection Ratio
Small and mid-size brands are gaining owners while the larger, more established brands struggle to maintain their owner base
Household Methodology
New to New
June 2015 – May 2016
Minimum 5,000 RTM
Top brands based on RTM
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0.48
0.61
0.68
0.71
0.81
0.82
0.84
0.88
0.92
0.96
0.99
1.11
1.13
1.14
1.15
1.50
1.78
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2
Toyota Camry
Toyota Corolla
Nissan Altima
Honda Accord
Chevrolet Silverado 1500
Honda Civic
Chevrolet Equinox
Ford Explorer
Ford Escape
Ford Fusion
Hyundai Sonata
Ford F150
Toyota RAV4
Honda CR-V
Toyota Tacoma
Honda CR-V
Toyota RAV4
Model Conquest / Defection Ratio
Import utility vehicles gain more new owners as sedans fall out of favor among new buyers
Household Methodology
New to New
June 2015 – May 2016
Minimum 5,000 RTM
Top models based on RTM
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Full Size Truck
Market Analysis
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Full Size Pickup Competitive Share
28.9%
32.6%
11.0%
18.5%
9.0%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Chevrolet Silverado 1500 Ford F150 GMC Sierra 1500 Ram 1500 Toyota Tundra
Individual new vehicle registrations through June 2016
Total share among models listed = 100%
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Full Size Pickup Model Loyalty
44.00%
49.80%
42.10%
52.30%
33.80%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Model Loyalty Trend
Chevrolet Silverado 1500 Ford F150 GMC Sierra 1500 Ram 1500 Toyota Tundra
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-6,006
491
8,962
50,183
-8,054
-20,000
-10,000
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
ChevroletSilverado
1500
FordF150
GMCSierra1500
Ram1500
ToyotaTundra
Conquest / Defection Net
0.91.0
1.2
2.2
0.8
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
ChevroletSilverado
1500
Ford F150 GMCSierra1500
Ram 1500 ToyotaTundra
Conquest / Defection Ratio
Full Size Pickup Conquest and Defection Metrics
Household Methodology
New to New
June 2015 – May 2016
Model level metrics
Ram 1500 excludes Dodge Ram
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U.S. vehicles in operation have increased to 264.1 million units
86.3 million vehicles fall into the aftermarket “sweet spot”
Nearly one-quarter of passenger cars / light trucks on the road were manufactured by General Motors
New registration volumes fell in Q2 for the first time since the recession
► Softening retail market is being offset with increases in fleet sales
Retail registration volumes were down as compared to Q2 2015 in all by 9 U.S. states
Entry level CUV remained popular with consumers controlling just over 16% of the market
General Motors outsold Toyota by 15k units to lead manufacturer market share
► Toyota outsold Ford to lead all brands
General Motors led in manufacturer loyalty
► Ford was tops in brand loyalty
Ram 1500 had highest model to model loyalty rate
Summary of Todays Presentation
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Today’s presentation
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Presentation will be available 24-48 hours after Webinar
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