automotive industry insights: q4 2012 - experian

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© 2013 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian and the marks used herein are service marks or registered trademarks of Experian Information Solutions, Inc. Other product and company names mentioned herein may be the trademarks of their respective owners. No part of this copyrighted work may be reproduced, modified, or distributed in any form or manner without the prior written permission of Experian Information Solutions, Inc. Automotive Industry Insights: Q4 2012 Jeffrey Anderson, Director of Consulting & Analytics Join us today on Twitter at #EXPAuto. Or, follow us on Twitter @Experian_Auto

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Page 1: Automotive Industry Insights: Q4 2012 - Experian

© 2013 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian and the marks used herein are service marks or registered trademarks of Experian Information Solutions, Inc.

Other product and company names mentioned herein may be the trademarks of their respective owners. No part of this copyrighted work may be reproduced, modified,

or distributed in any form or manner without the prior written permission of Experian Information Solutions, Inc.

Automotive Industry Insights: Q4 2012

Jeffrey Anderson, Director of Consulting & Analytics

Join us today on Twitter

at #EXPAuto.

Or, follow us on Twitter

@Experian_Auto

Page 2: Automotive Industry Insights: Q4 2012 - Experian

© 2013 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 2

Presentation Overview

4th Quarter 2012 Automotive Market Overview

• Vehicles in Operation (VIO)

• Vehicle Registrations

• New and Used

• New Vehicle Market Share

• Purchase Loyalty

• Corporate and Brand

• Additional Industry Insight

• Purchase Frequency

• Market Share and Loyalty Efficiency

Page 3: Automotive Industry Insights: Q4 2012 - Experian

© 2013 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 3

Experian Automotive Driving the automotive industry forward

Experian Automotive enables clients to better understand the

market, the vehicles and the people who buy them.

MARKET VEHICLES PEOPLE ● ●

Page 4: Automotive Industry Insights: Q4 2012 - Experian

© 2013 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 4

Understanding the Customer Leveraging Experian’s “best in class” data assets

National Fraud

Database

More than 700 million vehicles in U.S. (all 50 states & Wash. D.C.) and Canada, including more than 280 million vehicles in operation

Includes title, registration, mileage readings, key vehicle events

Over 7 billion vehicle history records, incl. 295 million title brands and 125 million accident related events

Online Activity

Databases

Credit Databases

Consumer Marketing Databases

Simmons National

Consumer

Study

North American Vehicle

Database

Integrated Information Assets

50,000 + adults surveyed annually

8,000+ brands in 450+ product categories

Measures television viewing, newspaper and magazine readership, internet usage, radio listening plus mobile

700+ psychographic measures

Easily extrapolated to any target file

25 million Internet users interacting with one million Websites across 160+ industries

Average of 60 billion emails sent on behalf of clients per year

Consumer

2 million credit inquiries daily

1.3 billion transaction updates/month

99.9% system availability

1.3 second response rate

220 million credit active consumers

50 million public records

Business

22 million businesses

235 million

consumers,

113 million

households

1,500+ data

attributes per

record

Attitudinal

segments

and touch-points

3,200 public and

proprietary

sources

110 million catalog

buyers

148 million

magazine

subscribers

Approximately 600,000 known fraud records

186+ million cross-industry credit applications

215+ million consumer

200 +demographic and credit records

Page 5: Automotive Industry Insights: Q4 2012 - Experian

© 2013 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 5

VEHICLES IN

OPERATION

Page 6: Automotive Industry Insights: Q4 2012 - Experian

© 2013 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 6

Current VIO – U.S. Summary by Model Year

Source: Experian Automotive as of December 31, 2012 (U.S. light duty vehicles only)

80.4 percent of vehicles are 15 years old or less

There are 246,953,406 light duty vehicles on the road

80.4%

Average Age of Vehicles (years)

Page 7: Automotive Industry Insights: Q4 2012 - Experian

© 2013 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 7

Current VIO – U.S. Summary by Model Year

Source: Experian Automotive as of December 31, 2012 (U.S. light duty vehicles only)

Change in VIO vs. Q4 2011:

13,986,000 vehicles added

11,212,000 out of operation

There are 246,953,406 light duty vehicles on the road

Page 8: Automotive Industry Insights: Q4 2012 - Experian

© 2013 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 8

Length of Ownership

Average Length of Ownership (months) for New Vehicles

Page 9: Automotive Industry Insights: Q4 2012 - Experian

© 2013 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 9

Current VIO – Vehicle Segment

Source: Experian Automotive as of December 31, 2012 (U.S. light duty vehicles only)

Top 5 Segments = 49.9 percent of VIO

Hybrid Vehicles represent 1.03 percent of current VIO

(nearly half are Prius)

Page 10: Automotive Industry Insights: Q4 2012 - Experian

© 2013 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 10

Current VIO – Percent Share

Vehicles In Operation:

Share by Manufacturer

• Nearly 60 percent of all

vehicles in operation are

Domestic brands

Source: Experian Automotive as of December 31, 2012 (U.S. light duty vehicles only)

Page 11: Automotive Industry Insights: Q4 2012 - Experian

© 2013 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 11

Import Brand VIO Share

VIO

Sh

are

Current VIO – Import Share Trend

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Source: Experian Automotive as of December 31, 2012 (U.S. light duty vehicles only)

2012

Page 12: Automotive Industry Insights: Q4 2012 - Experian

© 2013 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 12

VEHICLE REGISTRATIONS

Page 13: Automotive Industry Insights: Q4 2012 - Experian

© 2013 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 13

U.S. Vehicle Registrations - New

Source: Experian Automotive

Page 14: Automotive Industry Insights: Q4 2012 - Experian

© 2013 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 14

U.S. Vehicle Registrations - New

Source: Experian Automotive

Page 15: Automotive Industry Insights: Q4 2012 - Experian

© 2013 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 15

U.S. Vehicle Registrations - Used

Source: Experian Automotive

Page 16: Automotive Industry Insights: Q4 2012 - Experian

© 2013 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 16

U.S. Vehicle Registrations: New and Used

Q4 2012 up 295,000 units

(9.4%) vs Q4 2011

16

New Vehicle Registrations

Source: Experian Automotive

Used Vehicle Registrations

Relatively stable quarter over

quarter, with Q4 2012 showing

third straight drop (-2.5%)

2011

2012

2011

2012

2011

2012

2011

2012

2011

2012

2011

2012

2011

2012

2011

2012

Page 17: Automotive Industry Insights: Q4 2012 - Experian

© 2013 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 17

New Vehicle Registrations

Source: Experian Automotive Corporation

New Vehicle Market: Calendar Year Comparison

Chrysler: +265k units

Honda: +247k units

Toyota: +431k units

Page 18: Automotive Industry Insights: Q4 2012 - Experian

© 2013 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 18

New Vehicle Registrations

Source: Experian Automotive Corporation

New Vehicle Market:

Honda: +65k units

Toyota: +74k units

VW: +25k units

Page 19: Automotive Industry Insights: Q4 2012 - Experian

© 2013 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 19

Market Changers

Ranked by Unit Change

Source: Experian Automotive

Accord and Civic up a

combined 55,000 units

Compass and Liberty

down a combined

10,000 units

Page 20: Automotive Industry Insights: Q4 2012 - Experian

© 2013 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 20

M&M’s (Market Movers)

Ranked by % change

Ne

w R

eg

istr

atio

ns

Source: Experian Automotive

Pathfinder up over

11,000 units GS350

up nearly 5,000 units

RDX up nearly 5,000 units

Fiat 500 also up

nearly 5,000 units

Page 21: Automotive Industry Insights: Q4 2012 - Experian

© 2013 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 21

NVE (New Vehicle Entries) Q4 2012 Performance

New Vehicle Registrations Source: Experian Automotive

New entries equal nearly 94,000 additional sales

for 4th Quarter

Page 22: Automotive Industry Insights: Q4 2012 - Experian

© 2013 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 22

MARKET SHARE

Page 23: Automotive Industry Insights: Q4 2012 - Experian

© 2013 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 23

Who is up?

• Toyota 1.6%

• Chrysler 0.7%

• Honda 0.7%

• VW 0.5%

• Kia 0.1%

GM

Ford

Toyota

Honda

Chrysler

Other

2012

Manufacturer Market Share Analysis

Who is down?

• GM -1.5%

• Ford -1.2%

• Hyundai -0.3%

• Nissan -0.2%

CY 2011 vs CY 2012 Market Share

GM

Ford

Toyota

Honda

Chrysler

Hyundai

Nissan

Other

2011

Source: Experian Automotive

VW

Kia

Nissan

Hyundai

VW

Kia

Page 24: Automotive Industry Insights: Q4 2012 - Experian

© 2013 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 24

Market Share Trend

24

Source: Experian Automotive

Manufacturer Market Share Analysis

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Page 25: Automotive Industry Insights: Q4 2012 - Experian

© 2013 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 25

Who is up?

• Subaru 0.3%

• M-Benz 0.05%

Subaru

M-Benz

Volvo

BMW

Mazda

Mitsubishi

2012 Who is down?

• Mitsubishi -0.2%

• Mazda -0.1%

• BMW -0.1%

Subaru

M-Benz

Volvo

BMW

Mazda

Mitsubishi 2011

Source: Experian Automotive

Manufacturer Market Share Analysis – The ‘Others’ CY 2011 vs CY 2012 Market Share

Page 26: Automotive Industry Insights: Q4 2012 - Experian

© 2013 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 26

Market Share Analysis: Segment Level

Full Size

Pickup

Small Car Economy

• Small Car Economy and Hybrid car

segments topped market share gains

• Upscale Luxury and Mid range cars

also had strong increases

Source: Experian Automotive

Ma

rke

t S

ha

re C

ha

ng

e

Q4 2011 vs Q4 2012 Market Share

Upscale Luxury

Hybrid Car

SUV Entry Level

• Pickups, SUVs and CUV segments

had greatest drops in share

Mid Range

Car Standard

SUV Large

CUV Mid

Range

Small

Pickup

Mid Range

Car Lower

Page 27: Automotive Industry Insights: Q4 2012 - Experian

© 2013 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 27

Market Share Analysis U.S. Imports vs. Domestics

Imp

ort

Bra

nd

M

ark

et

Sh

are

2007 2008 2009 2010

Source: Experian Automotive

Reg

istr

ati

on

s

Import brands over 50 percent share

Gas Price Spikes to over $4.00 per gallon

Cash For Clunkers

2011

Japan Tsunami

2012

Page 28: Automotive Industry Insights: Q4 2012 - Experian

© 2013 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 28

Market Share Analysis: New Vehicle Registrations and VIO

Import Brand Market Share

Mark

et

Sh

are

Source: Experian Automotive as of December 31, 2012 (U.S. light duty vehicles only)

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Page 29: Automotive Industry Insights: Q4 2012 - Experian

© 2013 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 29

CUSTOMER LOYALTY

Page 30: Automotive Industry Insights: Q4 2012 - Experian

© 2013 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 30

Loyalty Methodology

•Multiple Levels

Garage loyalty measures whether a new vehicle purchase matches a prior new vehicle owned, including vehicles currently in the garage or disposed up to 90 days prior to the new vehicle purchase.

Provides complete view of repurchase activity

Garage Loyalty at the Brand Level

BMW

BMW

BMW

Lexus

Loyal

Not Loyal

Disposed Vehicle: Subsequent Purchase

Disposal loyalty measure whether a new vehicle purchase matches a vehicle disposed of +/- 90 days of the new vehicle purchase.

Essentially tracking vehicle replacement

Honda

Honda

Honda

Acura

Disposal Loyalty at the Corporate Level

Dodge

Dodge

Chrysler

Ford

Loyal

Not Loyal

Disposed Vehicle Subsequent Purchase

Owned Vehicle:

Page 31: Automotive Industry Insights: Q4 2012 - Experian

© 2013 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 31

Garage Loyalty at the Brand Level

BMW

BMW

BMW

Lexus

Loyal

Not Loyal

Disposed Vehicle: Subsequent Purchase

Loyalty Types

•Multiple Levels

Corporate Loyalty measures whether a new vehicle purchase matches a prior new vehicle owned at the corporate level. Includes all brands under the corporate umbrella

Brand Loyalty measures whether a new vehicle purchase matches a prior new vehicle owned at the brand level.

Honda

Honda

Honda

Acura

Disposal Loyalty at the Corporate Level

Dodge

Dodge

Chrysler

Ford

Loyal

Not Loyal

Disposed Vehicle Subsequent Purchase

Corporate Loyalty Example:

Brand Loyalty Example:

Owned Vehicle:

Owned Vehicle:

Page 32: Automotive Industry Insights: Q4 2012 - Experian

© 2013 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 32

Market Overview - Loyalty

Source: Experian Automotive

Q4 2012 Corporate Loyalty

Page 33: Automotive Industry Insights: Q4 2012 - Experian

© 2013 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 33

33

Market Overview - Loyalty

Corporate Loyalty by Quarter

Source: Experian Automotive

2009 2010 2011 2012

Page 34: Automotive Industry Insights: Q4 2012 - Experian

© 2013 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 34

34

Market Overview - Loyalty

Corporate Loyalty by Quarter

Source: Experian Automotive

2009 2010 2011 2012

Page 35: Automotive Industry Insights: Q4 2012 - Experian

© 2013 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 35

Corporate Loyalty – Impact in Q4 2012 Registrations

Source: Experian Automotive

Corp

ora

te L

oyalty

Loyalty Impact on New Registrations

Page 36: Automotive Industry Insights: Q4 2012 - Experian

© 2013 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 36

Source: Experian Automotive

Market Overview - Loyalty

Q4 2012 Brand Loyalty

Page 37: Automotive Industry Insights: Q4 2012 - Experian

© 2013 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 37

Brand Loyalty – Top Gainers for Q4 2012

Source: Experian Automotive

• Cadillac had highest

increase, with their

brand loyalty jumping

nearly 5 percent vs.

Q4 2011

• Subaru had the

second highest gain, a

4.6 percent gain

• Luxury brands made

up 5 of top 10 gainers

Q4 2011 vs Q4 2012 Brand Loyalty: ranked by percentage increase

Page 38: Automotive Industry Insights: Q4 2012 - Experian

© 2013 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 38

Brand Loyalty by Model: Top 10

38

Source: Experian Automotive

• Ford Fusion owners

were most brand

loyal, with six out of

ten returning to Ford

• Ford vehicles made

up eight of the top ten

in brand loyalty

• In addition, Chevrolet,

and Kia both had

vehicles in top ten

Model Owned

Q4 2012 Brand Loyalty

Page 39: Automotive Industry Insights: Q4 2012 - Experian

© 2013 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 39

Corporate Loyalty: 2011 vs 2012

39

Corporate Loyalty – Annual Summary

Source: Experian Automotive

Page 40: Automotive Industry Insights: Q4 2012 - Experian

© 2013 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 40

2007 – Who took from Whom?

Net Owner Migration

GM Ford

Toyota

Chrysler Source: Experian Automotive

Honda

Page 41: Automotive Industry Insights: Q4 2012 - Experian

© 2013 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 41

2007 – Who took from Whom?

64,000

Net Units

Ford (471,254)

GM (330,313)

Chrysler (225,213)

Honda 325,555

Toyota 701,225

Net Owner Migration

GM Ford

Toyota

Chrysler

Honda

Source: Experian Automotive

Page 42: Automotive Industry Insights: Q4 2012 - Experian

© 2013 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 42

Net Owner Migration

Chrysler

GM Ford

Source: Experian Automotive

Toyota Honda

CY 2012: Who took from Whom?

Page 43: Automotive Industry Insights: Q4 2012 - Experian

© 2013 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 43

CY 2012: Who took from Whom?

68,855

Net Units

GM (277,272)

Ford 6,957

Chrysler 23,713

Honda 105,848

Toyota 140,754

Net Owner Migration

GM

Source: Experian Automotive

Ford

Toyota

Chrysler

Honda

Page 44: Automotive Industry Insights: Q4 2012 - Experian

© 2013 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 44

ADDITIONAL INDUSTRY INSIGHTS

Page 45: Automotive Industry Insights: Q4 2012 - Experian

© 2013 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 45

PURCHASE FREQUENCY

Page 46: Automotive Industry Insights: Q4 2012 - Experian

© 2013 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 46

Number of Months Between New Vehicle Purchases

Source: Experian Automotive

Vehicle Segment

Page 47: Automotive Industry Insights: Q4 2012 - Experian

© 2013 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 47

Number of Months Between New Vehicle Purchases

Source: Experian Automotive

Avg = 56 mths

Vehicle Brand

Page 48: Automotive Industry Insights: Q4 2012 - Experian

© 2013 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 48

Number of Months Between New Vehicle Purchases

Source: Experian Automotive

Vehicle Model

Page 49: Automotive Industry Insights: Q4 2012 - Experian

© 2013 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 49

Number of Months Between New Vehicle Purchases

Source: Experian Automotive

Vehicle Model: Ford

Page 50: Automotive Industry Insights: Q4 2012 - Experian

© 2013 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 50

Number of Months Between New Vehicle Purchases

Source: Experian Automotive

Vehicle Model: BMW

Page 51: Automotive Industry Insights: Q4 2012 - Experian

© 2013 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 51

MARKET SHARE AND

LOYALTY EFFICIENCY

Page 52: Automotive Industry Insights: Q4 2012 - Experian

© 2013 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 52

Market Share by Segment Coverage

Source: Experian Automotive

Mark

et

Sh

are

Page 53: Automotive Industry Insights: Q4 2012 - Experian

© 2013 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 53

Corporate Loyalty by Segment Coverage

Source: Experian Automotive

Co

rpo

rate

Lo

yalt

y

Page 54: Automotive Industry Insights: Q4 2012 - Experian

© 2013 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 54

Conclusions

Average age of vehicles on the road continues to increase, while length of ownership drops since peak in 2009

Growth in new vehicles registrations continues, with Q4 having strong percentage gain (9.4%) than prior quarter, while 2012 annual registrations were up more than 1.5 million units vs 2011

Volume gains led by mid-size cars: Accord, Civic, Focus, Corolla, Camry

Toyota, Chrysler, Honda, VW and Kia gained market share, while GM, Ford, Hyundai and Nissan lost share

Ford on top in Corporate Loyalty, but battle continues to be tight with GM and Toyota.

New vehicle purchase frequency varies dramatically by brand and model

Page 55: Automotive Industry Insights: Q4 2012 - Experian

© 2013 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 55

Questions?

Page 56: Automotive Industry Insights: Q4 2012 - Experian

© 2013 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 56