Examining Urban Decay

in PhiladelphiaMac Ferrick, Paige Geist, Will Dorfman

GEOG372

Defined as the process of a city falling into

economic and social despair.

What is urban decay?

● Growth of the suburbs after World War II

● Movement of jobs outside of the city

● Deindustrialization

● White Flight/Redlining

● War on Drugs and Subsequent Crime

Main causes of decay in the US

● Land area: 135 square miles

● Population: 1,553,165

● Average home value: $147,569

● Median annual income: $37,016

● Poverty Rate: 26.2%

Philadelphia County Key Figures

Source: US Census Bureau American Fact Finder (2013); Select

Greater Philadelphia (2010)

● Philadelphia defines an area to be

experiencing urban decay as meet at least

one of the following criteria:o Unsafe, unsanitary and inadequate conditions;

economically or socially undesirable land use;

and faulty street and lot layout

● Urban renewal projects indicate the

presence of urban decay

Urban Decay in Philadelphia

● Urban renewal based on federal and state laws

● Decision Makers:o Philadelphia Redevelopment Authority

o Philadelphia City Planning Commission

o Philadelphia City Council & Mayor

o United States Department of Housing and Urban

Development (HUD)

● Determine areas for redevelopment, prepare

plans, and select developers

Redevelopment Process

● Neighborhood Stabilization Program (NSP)o Purpose is to turn over vacant, foreclosed

properties into owner-occupied dwellings

o Determined based on historical foreclosure

data, indications of predatory lending, and the

impact of vacancies on surrounding home

values

● Received $16.8 million in funding from HUD

Urban Renewal Programs

● Determine the underlying cause of

socioeconomic challenges in Philadelphia

County

● Determine if current redevelopment

projects are targeting the correct areas

Research Purpose

● What is the correlation between home

value and percent vacancies?

● What is the correlation between

vacancies and homicides?

● Is urban decay widespread or is it

concentrated in certain neighborhoods?

Key Questions

● Homicides

● Home vacancy percentage per census

tract

● Median Household Income

● Poverty

Factors Considered

● Georeferencing census tracts

● “Join” data (percent vacant and median

home value) to census tract file

● “Display XY Values” for homicides

● Perform a Hot Spot Analysis to present

homicide data

● Overlay areas for urban renewal

Methodology

Total number of homicides (2010): 403

● Homicide hotspots in North Philadelphia

and section of Southwest Philadelphia

● Coldspots in Center City, Northeast

Philadelphia, and Northwest Philadelphia

● Little correlation between hotspots and

urban renewal areas

Findings

● Vacancies are concentrated in North

Philadelphia and portions of West

Philadelphia

● Fewest vacancies are found in Northeast

Philadelphia

● Outlier in Northeast Philadelphia

● Stronger correlation between vacancy

percentage and urban renewal areas

Findings

● Highest home values concentrated in

Center City and Northwest Philadelphia

● Lowest home values are found in North

Philadelphia and West Philadelphia

● Little correlation between home value

and urban renewal

Findings

● Poverty concentrated in North

Philadelphia and West Philadelphia

● Somewhat strong correlation between

poverty and urban renewal areas

● Strong correlation between homicide

hotspot and poverty, especially in North

Philadelphia

Findings

● Access to data

● Various outliers

● Presence of universities (UPenn, Drexel)

● Measurement criteria into the

effectiveness of urban renewal programs

Limitations

● Urban renewal project are partially targeting the

right areas

● There are areas that are both within and outside of

urban renewal zones that are still suffering the

consequences of urban decay

● Based on our findings, the areas marked for urban

renewal need to be reexamined to take into account

factors other than the criteria determined by the

city

Conclusions

● Look at correlation between decay and

other crimes, especially drug-related

crimes

● Look at the lasting impact of redlining

using historical data

● Conduct a longitudinal study to see how

decay has evolved over time

Possible Further Analysis

● http://www.phila.gov/CityPlanning/plans/communityplans/Pages/BlightandRedevelopmentReports.aspx

● http://factfinder2.census.gov/faces/nav/jsf/pages/community_facts.xhtml

● http://www.selectgreaterphiladelphia.com/regional-data/county-data/philadelphia/

● http://www.opendataphilly.org/opendata/resource/34/redevelopment-certified-areas/

● http://www.phila.gov/pra/neighborhoodStable.html

● http://factfinder2.census.gov/faces/nav/jsf/pages/index.xhtml

● http://www.phila.gov/pra/neighborhoodStable.html

Sources