examination committee: dr. ranjith perera (chairperson) dr. vilas vitivattananon

11

Vulnerability of Maldives Islands to Vulnerability of Maldives Islands to Climate Change and Extreme Weather Climate Change and Extreme Weather

Events: A Study on Perceptions, Impacts Events: A Study on Perceptions, Impacts & Adaptations& Adaptations

Examination Committee:

• Dr. Ranjith Perera (Chairperson)• Dr. Vilas Vitivattananon• Prof. Sivanappan Kumar

by

Miruza Mohamed

22

Small Islands - Amongst the most vulnerable Small Islands - Amongst the most vulnerable to climate change and its consequences to climate change and its consequences

Import-dependent and a LDC Import-dependent and a LDC

Geophysical nature- Geophysical nature- smallsmall (235sqkm of (235sqkm of land area, 96% less than 1 sqkm), land area, 96% less than 1 sqkm), low low lying lying (80% land area less than 1 meter (80% land area less than 1 meter above MSL, 42% of the population & all above MSL, 42% of the population & all housing structures within 100m of the housing structures within 100m of the coastline) coastline) unconsolidated islandsunconsolidated islands

CLIMATE CHANGE & ITS IMPACTSCLIMATE CHANGE & ITS IMPACTS

Why Small Islands & in Particular Why Small Islands & in Particular Maldives? Maldives?

Maldives - Amongst the four countries Maldives - Amongst the four countries (worldwide) comprised entirely of low lying (worldwide) comprised entirely of low lying atollsatolls

33

Why Why specifically on specifically on RUC & why RUC & why HOUSEHOLD HOUSEHOLD LEVELLEVEL

Rationale of the StudyRationale of the Study

SolutionSolution to to unconsolidatedunconsolidated

nature = RUC/Safer nature = RUC/Safer Islands Islands

with high population andwith high population and developed infrastructure developed infrastructure

high density high density settlements settlements

exposure of more exposure of more people in a single people in a single locationlocation

Many studies on Many studies on SLRSLR, , lessless

on extreme weather , itson extreme weather , itsimpacts & Adaptation.impacts & Adaptation.Already experiencing Already experiencing

thetheimpactsimpacts

Why Why concentrate on concentrate on Climate Climate Change, Why Change, Why Extreme Extreme Weather Weather EventsEvents

44

Research Questions & Research Questions & ObjectivesObjectives

WhatWhat are the climatic are the climatic Threats to urban Threats to urban

settlementssettlementsin the selected Regional in the selected Regional Urban Centres (RUC) and Urban Centres (RUC) and

ininwhat ways what ways have these have these threats affected RUCs?threats affected RUCs?

HowHow have households of have households of these regional centres these regional centres responded to the impacts responded to the impacts

ofofclimate induced events?climate induced events?

HowHow are climate change are climate change and its effects perceived and its effects perceived

byby the households of thesethe households of these urban centres?urban centres?

To Understand and To Understand and describe describe

the climatic threats and its the climatic threats and its impactsimpacts

to the urban settlements of to the urban settlements of the the

Selected RUCsSelected RUCs

To identify To identify climate changeclimate changeimpacts on households and impacts on households and totoanalyze analyze the adaptation the adaptation

actionsactionstaken in addressing the taken in addressing the

climateclimatevariability and extreme variability and extreme

weatherweathereventsevents

To determine To determine the publicthe publicperceptions of and knowledge perceptions of and knowledge of climate change to of climate change to

determinedeterminethe consciousness of the the consciousness of the

generalgeneralpublicpublic

55

Observed evidence and Observed evidence and projections for climate projections for climate

change change Observed SLR in Maldives – long term Observed SLR in Maldives – long term trend 1.7mm/yr – towards the upper end trend 1.7mm/yr – towards the upper end of estimated range of global SLR over the of estimated range of global SLR over the past century & above the central estimate past century & above the central estimate rate- 1.5mm/yrrate- 1.5mm/yr Increasing the frequency and intensify of Increasing the frequency and intensify of extreme weather events in Maldives:extreme weather events in Maldives:

flooding in more than 90 inhabited flooding in more than 90 inhabited islands islands over the last 6 years at least over the last 6 years at least oneone

37 islands flooded regularly37 islands flooded regularlyIn 2004, one event alone caused In 2004, one event alone caused

flooding in flooding in 71 inhabited islands, in 71 inhabited islands, in 2007, one event alone 2007, one event alone affected 60 affected 60 islands in 16 atollsislands in 16 atolls

66

Adaptation to Climate ChangeAdaptation to Climate Change

Adaptation - Adaptation - an important option for an important option for reducing reducing vulnerability to long term climate vulnerability to long term climate change impactschange impacts

Knowledge – Knowledge – a pre-requisite for a pre-requisite for adaptation. adaptation. “Formulation of adaptation “Formulation of adaptation measures requires how to utilize and measures requires how to utilize and enhance local and indigenous resilience enhance local and indigenous resilience practices and knowledge possessed by practices and knowledge possessed by local communities.”(Japan, 2007)local communities.”(Japan, 2007)

Adaptive Capacity - Adaptive Capacity - the ability of a the ability of a system to adjust to climate change system to adjust to climate change (including climate variability and extremes) (including climate variability and extremes) to moderate potential damages, to take to moderate potential damages, to take advantage of opportunities, or to cope with advantage of opportunities, or to cope with the consequences (IPCC, 2001).the consequences (IPCC, 2001).

77

Conceptual FrameworkConceptual Framework

Global Climate Change Global Climate Change

Slow on set changesSlow on set changes Sudden, Extreme Sudden, Extreme EventsEvents

Impacts on Coastal Impacts on Coastal Areas/Small IslandsAreas/Small Islands

Perception/Knowledge Perception/Knowledge Adaptation Adaptation

What Type What Type of of Adaptation?Adaptation?

Who & What Who & What Adapts?Adapts?

How How doesdoes Adaptation Adaptation

occur?occur?

Adaptation Adaptation to to What?What?

99

Urban regional cenres- impacts more if an Urban regional cenres- impacts more if an event strikes. event strikes.

Selection of the study areasSelection of the study areas

Selected for Population Selected for Population Consolidation Programme/Safer Consolidation Programme/Safer IslandIsland Most urbanized and high population Most urbanized and high population concentrationconcentration Importance in the context or Importance in the context or urbanization- growth centresurbanization- growth centres

Importance at the national scaleImportance at the national scale Have 2 sea ports out of the total 3 in Have 2 sea ports out of the total 3 in

Maldives, 2 airports out of the four Maldives, 2 airports out of the four airports, Highest health & facilities airports, Highest health & facilities (except for Male’) (except for Male’)

1010

TTHHEE

SSTTUUDDYY

AARREEAASS

1111

S. S. HithadhoHithadhooo

1212

HDH. HDH. KULHUDHUFFUSHIKULHUDHUFFUSHI

Hdh. Kulhudhuffushi Hdh. Kulhudhuffushi

1313

Methodological FrameworkMethodological Framework

Document review, Views from Local people, His oral impact Identification

Stages & Outputs

Inputs Inputs

Historical Data

Document Review

Climate change related events Identification

(THREATS)

Related Impacts

IdentificationHousehold

LevelIsland Level

Perception on local and global climate issues

Relevant Adaptation Behaviour

Household Level

Household Survey

Household Survey

Household Survey

Climate Records

1515

Vulnerability of Two Islands to Vulnerability of Two Islands to Climatic VariabilityClimatic Variability

Hdh. Kulhudhuffushi Exposed to NE

monsoon generated winds & storm activities originating from the cyclone belt of Indian Ocean –storm surges and windstorm

S. Hithadhoo Most southern- so

exposed to wave actions from both E & W directions in Indian ocean – exposed to southwest monsoon related surges and long distance swells

1616

Climatic Trends of two study Climatic Trends of two study areasareas

1717

Max- 31.3 °CMax- 31.3 °C+0.9 °C/year N, and +0.04 °C/year S+0.9 °C/year N, and +0.04 °C/year S

Climatic Trends of two study areas Climatic Trends of two study areas contd…contd…

1818

Climatic Trends of two study areas Climatic Trends of two study areas contd…contd…

1919

Heavy rainfallHeavy rainfall

Most Common Events & Impacts at Most Common Events & Impacts at Island LevelIsland Level

Swell surgesSwell surges

Wind stormWind storm Blowing off roofs Blowing off roofs andand

damage to plantsdamage to plants

Flooding, damage Flooding, damage toto

plants and plants and householdhousehold

appliancesappliances

Flooding & damage Flooding & damage toto

plantsplants

2020

Gender of the respondents- Gender of the respondents- Females were more Females were more vulnerable than males (Dwyer et al. 2004). vulnerable than males (Dwyer et al. 2004).

Determinants of Adaptive capacity Determinants of Adaptive capacity and Social Vulnerabilityand Social Vulnerability

Household Size- Household Size- large households more vulnerablelarge households more vulnerablethan small households-than small households-

Household Income &Types of Employment Household Income &Types of Employment --importantimportant

for determining the vulnerability, coping capacity for determining the vulnerability, coping capacity and and

recovery after an impact recovery after an impact Educational Level Educational Level – educated populations are – educated populations are

importantimportantin reducing the vulnerabilityin reducing the vulnerability

2121

HDH. KulhudhuffushiHDH. Kulhudhuffushi

91.2% 91.2% believed that believed that local weather pattern is local weather pattern is changingchanging65.5% 65.5% believed that believed that temperature has temperature has increasedincreased-None believed that None believed that temperature has temperature has decreaseddecreased

S. HithadhooS. Hithadhoo

86.6% 86.6% believed that believed that local weather pattern local weather pattern is is changingchanging55.0% 55.0% from S. from S. HithadhooHithadhoo

Other observations include that rain & wind Other observations include that rain & wind episodes are more stormy, Rain in episodes are more stormy, Rain in unexpected times, Increase in storm surges, unexpected times, Increase in storm surges, flooding and disasters, etcflooding and disasters, etc

Household Perceptions of Local Household Perceptions of Local weather patternsweather patterns

2222


91.0% 91.0% have heard have heard about climate changeabout climate change42% 42% knowledgeable on knowledgeable on causescauses51% 51% identified GHGs identified GHGs emissionemission


95% 95% believed that believed that local climate is local climate is changingchanging44% 44% knowledgeable knowledgeable on causeson causes43% 43% identified GHGs identified GHGs emissionemission

Respondents education attainment with Respondents education attainment with their knowledge of causes of climate their knowledge of causes of climate change showed a relationship so does change showed a relationship so does with their types of occupation with their types of occupation

Household Perceptions of and Household Perceptions of and knowledge of Global Climate Change knowledge of Global Climate Change

(Causes)(Causes)

2323


(Causes) (Causes) contd…contd…

2424


Comparatively respondents Comparatively respondents were more aware on impacts were more aware on impacts of climate change of climate change 77% 77% knowledgeable on knowledgeable on impactsimpacts


64% 64% knowledgeable knowledgeable on impactson impacts

Respondents education attainment with their knowledge Respondents education attainment with their knowledge on on impactsimpacts of climate change showed of climate change showed no relationship no relationship however, with types of occupation there appeared a however, with types of occupation there appeared a relationshiprelationship


(Impacts)(Impacts)

Housewives and unemployed people are more Housewives and unemployed people are more knowledgeable on impacts than causes of climate changeknowledgeable on impacts than causes of climate change

2525


(Impacts) (Impacts) contd…contd…

2626


(gender)(gender)

Respondents gender

North (N= 113)

South (N= 149)

Cause Impact Cause Impact

Female 2938.7%

5776.0%

4139.0%

6360.0%

Male 1750.0%

2779.4%

2156.8%

2875.7%

An important indicator for assessing the An important indicator for assessing the vulnerabilityvulnerability

PovertyPoverty – both a cause of vulnerability and a – both a cause of vulnerability and a

consequence of hazard impacts linked with consequence of hazard impacts linked with female female

2727


20.4% 20.4% households households affected (affected (heavy heavy rainfallrainfall, high , high temperature, temperature, WindstormWindstorm, Swell , Swell Surges & thunderstormSurges & thunderstorm


31.5% 31.5% household household ((heavy rainfallheavy rainfall, high , high temperature, temperature, WindstormWindstorm & & thunderstormthunderstorm

Household Impacts & Adaptive Household Impacts & Adaptive BehaviourBehaviour

Adaptation actions

North South

Affected

Not affected

Affected

Not affected

Taken Adaptation actions

69.6% 12.2% 38.3% 13.7%

2828

Most on ‘stopping cutting down trees Most on ‘stopping cutting down trees (57.5% Kulhudhuffushi & 48.3% in S. (57.5% Kulhudhuffushi & 48.3% in S. Hithadhoo)Hithadhoo)

Individually Perceived abilityIndividually Perceived ability

Most importantly respondent’s responses Most importantly respondent’s responses on ‘what they can do as an individual to on ‘what they can do as an individual to alleviate the problem of climate change’ alleviate the problem of climate change’ was somehow related to the was somehow related to the environmental problems existing in their environmental problems existing in their islands islands As, more responses from Hdh as ‘use As, more responses from Hdh as ‘use proper ways to dispose waste’ and ‘stop proper ways to dispose waste’ and ‘stop sand mining’ in Hithadhoo shows this. sand mining’ in Hithadhoo shows this.

2929

ConclusionsConclusions

Global Climate Change Global Climate Change

Sudden, Extreme Sudden, Extreme EventsEvents

ImpactsImpacts

Perception/Perception/KnowledgeKnowledge

Who & What Who & What Adapts?Adapts?

How How doesdoes Adaptation Adaptation

occur?occur?

Adaptation Adaptation to to What?What?

Change in climate patterns, exposed to swell surges, windstorm, etc

AdaptatioAdaptation n

Due to, heavy rainfall, swell surges, high temperature and thunderstorm, windstorm• Local

Weather Patterns• Causes & Impacts of Climate Change

3030

Findings of this research is expected to Findings of this research is expected to provide information toprovide information to

MEEW, contributing climate change related MEEW, contributing climate change related events in the islandsevents in the islands

Overall, this research could be extended to Overall, this research could be extended to other regional urban centresother regional urban centres

MOE- knowledge on climate change issuesMOE- knowledge on climate change issues

MPND, Safer island Programme, Pop. Cos. MPND, Safer island Programme, Pop. Cos. ProgramePrograme

To others researches based on these islands, as To others researches based on these islands, as this research explored various year’s this research explored various year’s information on eventsinformation on events

ContributionsContributions

3131

NAPA should include adaptation actions by NAPA should include adaptation actions by households based on their impactshouseholds based on their impacts

Policy ImplicationsPolicy Implications

While these centres are developed as While these centres are developed as safer safer islands islands and regional hubs, the impacts on and regional hubs, the impacts on households should be integrated when households should be integrated when developing further infrastructure + developing further infrastructure + building codesbuilding codes

Policies towards strengthening awareness, Policies towards strengthening awareness, should include specific climate change should include specific climate change issues, their views. issues, their views.

Different determinants of adaptive capacity Different determinants of adaptive capacity should be included in NAPAshould be included in NAPA

3232

Should extend to other regional urban centresShould extend to other regional urban centres

Recommendations for further Recommendations for further studiesstudies

Should research on Should research on how people how people acquire acquire climate change knowledge. climate change knowledge.

Flooding was one of the many impacts, Flooding was one of the many impacts, thus, Ministry of Health should consider thus, Ministry of Health should consider conducting a survey on health impacts of conducting a survey on health impacts of climate change on householdsclimate change on households

Socio-economic impacts and Socio-economic impacts and costs costs involved involved in impacts as well adaptation in impacts as well adaptation actions would be useful to determine the actions would be useful to determine the economic effectseconomic effects

examination committee: dr. ranjith perera (chairperson) dr. vilas vitivattananon

Documents

climate variability

climate changeadaptation

study areas contd

extreme weather events

study areasselected

particular maldives

maldives long term trend

impactswhy small islands