evolving legal cannabis regulation and the interplay with ... · engages in research forums and...

Linked destinies?Evolving legal cannabis regulation and the interplay with vapour

GFN 2020 Online, June 2020

Shane MacGuillGlobal Head of Tobacco ResearchCannabis Working GroupEuromonitor International

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Euromonitor International network and coverage

ABOUT EUROMONITOR INTERNATIONAL


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Shane MacGuill – Head of Tobacco Research

Bio

▪ Shane joined the Euromonitor International Tobacco team as Analyst in 2011. He was promoted to

Senior Analyst in 2014 and to Head of Tobacco Research in 2016. Prior to his roles on the Tobacco

Industry team, Shane was a Research Analyst with the syndicated research team working on a range of

industries in the UK and Ireland.

▪ Key responsibilities as Senior Head of Tobacco include, assessing and interpreting Euromonitor data and

industry trends to provide insightful analysis to clients, and liaising with syndicated research teams to

produce data of the highest possible accuracy

Areas of Focus

▪ Shane conducts research and provides strategic analysis on all aspects of the global tobacco industry for

Euromonitor International, working with a range of industry stakeholders including brand owners, public

health organisations and companies in the supply chain

▪ In addition to his day-to-day business of providing strategic insight to clients and producing opinion and

briefing analysis, Shane has contributed to a range of industry and retail conferences and regularly

engages in research forums and special projects with clients on topics such as the illicit trade, future

industry trends and legal cannabis

Academic Background

▪ Shane has a BA degree in Philosophy and Political Science from Trinity College, Dublin and subsequently

engaged in legal training with the Law Society of Ireland.

Interesting Fact

▪ He is a frequent contributor to the mainstream and business media on tobacco and cannabis related

topics, including New York Times, Reuters, CNBC, France 24, BBC, the Economist, Bloomberg, the

Financial Times, Globe and Mail and the Times of London

BackgroundJoined 2011

Specialties Taxation, Illicit Trade, NGP and Vapor Devices, Cannabis

Industries Tobacco: Cigarettes, Cigars, Smoking Tobacco, Smokeless Tobacco, Vapor Devices

Languages English, Irish, (basic) Polish

Email [email protected]

OVERVIEW


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State of legalisation and drivers

Tobacco control as template

Key emerging issues in cannabis regulation

Interplay between cannabis and vapour

Linked destinies?


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A rolling wave of cannabis legalisation: global cannabis regulatory status – now

Fully recreationally legal

IllegalMedical legal & rec partially legal / decriminalised

Medical legal & rec illegal

Decriminalised / administrative offence


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Possible global cannabis regulatory status – 2030

Fully recreationally legal

IllegalMedical legal & rec partially legal / decriminalised

Medical legal & rec illegal

Decriminalised / administrative offence


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Banishing Chicken Licken

What is driving cannabis legalisation?

Legacy substance disillusion

Pragmatic acceptanceAwareness of

therapeutic benefitsGenerational

transition

High profile influencers

Decline in religious belief

Distrust of corporate offerings


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Cannabis regulation and tobacco control

“If you look at this from a

public policy lens, for

example, there is alcohol, and

there is tobacco, these are

two mainstream products that

are out there in society. When

the government of Canada

looks at this from a regulatory

objective, they have found

that that alcohol was failing

public policy, whereas

tobacco was successful

public policy.”

– Deepak Anand, CEO

Materia Ventures


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Making regulatory choices on Kilmer’s 10 Ps

Production

Profit Motive

Promotion

Prevention

Policing

Penalties

Potency

Purity

Price

Permanency

State Private sector

More restrictive

Less restrictive


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Existing legalised regimes tend to favour heavier restrictions and greater state involvement

State Private

sector

More restrictive

Less restrictive

Uruguay

Medical &

RecCanada

Rec

Canada

Medical

Poland

Medical

Germany

Medical

Australia

Medical

Oregon

Rec

California

Rec

Italy

Medical Netherlands

Medical

Colorado

Rec

Washington

Rec


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Key emerging regulatory issues for legal cannabis

Clarification of medical/recreational construct Potency restrictions/potency-based taxation

Substance interactions Demining daily lives

cannaconnection.com

cbdschool.com abcnet.au

.medwellhealth.net


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Cannabis and nicotine vapour have evolved in parallel, with a conjoined future

Ploom , JTI

Pax 2, Pax Labs

JUUL,

Juul Labs

Pax Era, Pax Labs

Grizzly Eclipse, Grizzly

CBD Vape, VDL


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Vapour is now a more

significant delivery

mechanism for cannabis

than tobacco

c.30%estimated vape share of US legal

cannabis sales

7.6%share of e-vapour of US tobacco

sales, 2019Source: Euromonitor International Passport Tobacco


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This interplay is having and will have varied effects

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dalman.com

The tobacco industry is undergoing a transition by consumers to the delivery of nicotine through vapourisation - albeit one that is currently mediated by geographic regulatory factors and issues of affordability and acceptability in specific markets

In turn driving further migration to reduced risk in nicotine, as consumers approach the category with revised expectations and companies leverage advances driven by the delivery of cannabinoids

In parallel with the transition of consumers in the nicotine space is both increased substance-agnostic delivery technology innovation and the rapid expansion of public tolerance for cannabis and, as a correlate, its wider legalisation

This confluence of factors inevitably will result in greater traction of reduced risk delivery formats such as vapourisation in cannabis consumption, further incentivising technical and process innovations

sciencenews.org

theoilyguru.org

vardex.ru


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In the short to medium term cannavapour has negatively impacted e-vapour

0

20

40

60

80

100

CA CN CZ FR DE GR IS IT JP KK NL PL RO RU SV KR ES UK GB US

% o

f e

-cig

are

tte u

sers

% of current users stating e-cigarettes either somewhat or much safer than cigarettes

Current users (at least monthly) 2019 Current users (at least monthly) 2020

0

20

40

60

80

100

CA CN CZ FR DE GR IS IT JP KK NL PL RO RU SV KR ES UK GB US

% o

f non e

-cig

are

tte u

sers

% of non-users stating e-cigarettes somewhat or much safer than cigarettes

Non-users 2019 Non-users 2020

Source: Euromonitor International, Nicotine Survey


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Key areas of shared evolution

EVALI fallout User validation and authentication

Dose control Surveillance consumption

theconversation.comuk.finance.yahoo.com

moo.review nakedsecurity.sophos.com

Thank you

[email protected]

linkedin.com/shanemacguill

@ShaneMacGuill

Shane MacGuill,

Global Head of Tobacco ResearchCannabis Working Group

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