evolution of horizontal inequalities in madagascar, 1999- 2005 david stifel (lafayette) felix...
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Evolution of Horizontal Inequalities in Madagascar,
1999- 2005
David Stifel (Lafayette)
Felix Forster (Lafayette)
Chris Barrett (Cornell)
Oxford University April, 2008
Overview
• Introduction
• Economic Context
• Data and Group Dimensions
• Welfare Ordering of Groups
• Econometric Estimates & Differential Returns to Assets
• Concluding Remarks
The Setting: Madagascar
Economic Context:• Sustained growth in late 1990s• 2001-02: Political crisis
• General strikes
• Destruction of key infrastructure
• 2004-05: • Strong Depreciation of Currency
• Rise in international oil and rice prices
• Phase-out of Multi-Fibre Agreement
• Average Growth: 5 %
Data
• Enquête Périodique Auprès des Ménages (EPM),
• Nationally representative integrated household survey
• Collected by Institut National de la Statistique
• Years: 1999; 2001; 2005• Sample Size: 5,120; 5,080; 11,781• Repeated Cross-sections
Data
• Commune Census, 2001
• Conducted by: • Ilo program of Cornell University • National Malagasy agricultural research institute
(FOFIFA)• INSTAT
• Covered 1,385 out of 1,392 communes
• Used for Remoteness
Measures
• Welfare: Per Capita HH Expenditure (Consumption)
• Remoteness: Cost of transporting 50kg sack of rice to market – 5 Quintiles + Urban
• Gender of HH head: temporarily, permanently female-headed, male-headed
• Education of HH head: highest educational attainment – none, primary, secondary(+)
• Land holdings: less than 1 HA, 1 – 5 HA, 5+ HA • Ethnicity: Merina ethnic group, other
Distribution of Per Capita Consumption by Education of Household Head1999
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0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700
Per Capita Consumption (thousands of 2005 Ariary)
Cum
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tive F
requency
No Formal Education
Primary Education Only
More than Primary
2001
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Per Capita Consumption (thousands of 2005 Ariary)
Cum
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tive F
requency
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Per Capita Consumption (thousands of 2005 Ariary)
Cum
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tive F
requency
1999
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0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700
Per Capita Consumption (thousands of 2005 Ariary)
Cum
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tive F
requency
No Formal Education
Primary Education Only
More than Primary
2001
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Per Capita Consumption (thousands of 2005 Ariary)
Cum
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tive F
requency
2005
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Per Capita Consumption (thousands of 2005 Ariary)
Cum
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requency
Distribution of Household Expenditure by Temporary/Permanent Female-Headedness
1999
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Per Capita Consumption (thousands of 2005 Ariary)
Cum
ula
tive F
requency
Permanently Female-Headed
Temporarily Female-Headed
Male-Headed
2001
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Per Capita Consumption (thousands of 2005 Ariary)
Cum
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tive F
requency
1999
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Per Capita Consumption (thousands of 2005 Ariary)
Cum
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ive
Fre
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cy
Permanently Female-Headed
Temporarily Female-Headed
Male-Headed
2001
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Per Capita Consumption (thousands of 2005 Ariary)
Cum
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ive
Fre
quen
cy
2005
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Per Capita Consumption (thousands of 2005 Ariary)
Cum
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ive
Fre
quen
cy
Distribution of HH Expenditure by Remoteness (by Year)1999
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Per Capita Consumption (thousands of 2005 Ariary)
Cum
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ive
Fre
quen
cy
Most Remote & 2nd Quintile
3rd & 4th Quintile
Least Remote Quintile
Urban
2001
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Per Capita Consumption (thousands of 2005 Ariary)
Cum
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Fre
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2005
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Per Capita Consumption (thousands of 2005 Ariary)
Cum
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Fre
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1999
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Per Capita Consumption (thousands of 2005 Ariary)
Cum
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tive F
requency
Most Remote & 2nd Quintile
3rd & 4th Quintile
Least Remote Quintile
Urban
2001
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Per Capita Consumption (thousands of 2005 Ariary)
Cum
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tive F
requency
2005
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Per Capita Consumption (thousands of 2005 Ariary)
Cum
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tive F
requency
1999
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Per Capita Consumption (thousands of 2005 Ariary)
Cum
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tive F
requency
Most Remote & 2nd Quintile
3rd & 4th Quintile
Least Remote Quintile
Urban
2001
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Per Capita Consumption (thousands of 2005 Ariary)
Cum
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tive F
requency
2005
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Per Capita Consumption (thousands of 2005 Ariary)
Cum
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requency
Distribution of HH Expenditure by Land Holdings
1999
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Per Capita Consumption (thousands of 2005 Ariary)
Cum
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tive F
requency
Less than One HA
Less than Five HA
More than Five HA
2001
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Per Capita Consumption (thousands of 2005 Ariary)
Cum
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Per Capita Consumption (thousands of 2005 Ariary)
Cum
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requency
Less than One HA
Less than Five HA
More than Five HA
2001
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Per Capita Consumption (thousands of 2005 Ariary)
Cum
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requency
1999
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Per Capita Consumption (thousands of 2005 Ariary)
Cum
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requency
Less than One HA
Less than Five HA
More than Five HA
2001
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Per Capita Consumption (thousands of 2005 Ariary)
Cum
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Per Capita Consumption (thousands of 2005 Ariary)
Cum
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requency
Distributions of Per Capita Consumption by Ethnic Group
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Per Capita Consumption (thousands of 2005 Ariary)
Cum
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tive F
requency
Other - 2001
Other - 2005
Merina - 2001
Merina - 2005
Coeff t-stat Coeff t-stat Coeff t-stat
Head Educ (left out = none)Primary 0.169 3.01 *** 0.102 2.46 ** 0.106 1.87 *
At least Secondary 0.515 9.71 *** 0.606 14.88 *** 0.401 7.74 ***
HH Head is female (left out = male head)Temporary (spouse alive) -0.406 -1.27 -0.193 -1.70 * 0.005 0.08
Permanent (no living spouse) -0.142 -2.41 ** -0.112 -2.56 ** -0.079 -3.03 ***
Remoteness (left out = urban)Most remote -0.086 -0.85 -0.465 -7.23 *** -0.426 -7.91 ***
Q2 -0.139 -1.37 -0.462 -7.10 *** -0.306 -5.54 ***
Q3 -0.175 -2.02 ** -0.384 -5.19 *** -0.334 -6.20 ***
Q4 -0.077 -0.89 -0.329 -4.94 *** -0.372 -7.24 ***
Least remote -0.083 -1.03 -0.339 -5.09 *** -0.240 -4.51 ***
Land Holdings (left out = < 1)Small (1 - 5 hectares) 0.346 3.15 *** 0.233 2.35 ** 0.153 1.65 *
Large (5+ hectares) 0.286 4.62 *** 0.351 7.10 *** 0.029 0.72
Note: Representative household is male-headed, without education, land poor, living in urban Antananarivo Province.
Note: *, ** and *** indicate significance at the 90, 95 and 99 percent level of confidence, respectively.
Note: Interactions appear in Appendix Table 1
1999 2001 2005
Determinants of Per Capita Household Consumption
Differential Marginal Effects of Education on Per Capita Consumption
Coeff. t-stat Coeff. t-stat Difference t-stat Difference t-stat
1999Gender of Household Head
Female temporary (spouse alive) 0.704 1.34 1.192 2.36 ** 0.535 1.01 0.677 1.33
Female permanent (no living spouse) 0.337 3.35 *** 0.721 7.13 *** 0.168 1.45 0.206 1.80 *
Male 0.169 3.01 *** 0.515 9.71 *** .. .. .. ..
2001Gender of Household Head
Female temporary (spouse alive) 0.629 3.22 *** 0.754 3.90 *** 0.527 2.64 *** 0.147 0.75
Female permanent (no living spouse) 0.365 4.83 *** 0.804 10.42 *** 0.263 3.05 *** 0.198 2.26 **
Male 0.102 2.46 ** 0.606 14.88 *** .. .. .. ..
2005Gender of Household Head
Female temporary (spouse alive) 0.119 0.81 0.668 4.27 *** 0.013 0.08 0.267 1.62
Female permanent (no living spouse) 0.241 3.42 *** 0.589 8.46 *** 0.135 1.50 0.187 2.16 **
Male 0.106 1.87 * 0.401 7.74 *** .. .. .. ..
Note: *, ** and *** indicate significance at the 90, 95 and 99 percent level of confidence, respectively.
Marginal Effect Difference Relative to Urban/Male-Headed HHPrimary Secondary + Primary Secondary +
Differential Marginal Effects of Education on Per Capita Consumption
Coeff. t-stat Coeff. t-stat Difference t-stat Difference t-stat
1999Remoteness
Most remote 0.202 1.71 * 0.464 3.68 *** 0.033 0.25 -0.051 -0.38
Q2 0.211 1.57 0.412 2.97 *** 0.042 0.29 -0.103 -0.70
Q3 0.388 3.59 *** 0.655 5.68 *** 0.218 1.79 * 0.140 1.10
Q4 0.220 2.05 ** 0.451 3.93 *** 0.051 0.42 -0.064 -0.51
Least remote 0.199 2.03 ** 0.533 5.11 *** 0.030 0.26 0.018 0.15
Urban 0.169 3.01 *** 0.515 9.71 *** .. .. .. ..
2001Remoteness
Most remote 0.591 6.44 *** 1.126 11.10 *** 0.489 4.85 *** 0.520 4.76 ***
Q2 0.577 5.69 *** 0.930 8.37 *** 0.474 4.33 *** 0.324 2.73 ***
Q3 0.629 5.98 *** 0.900 8.34 *** 0.527 4.66 *** 0.294 2.54 **
Q4 0.513 5.57 *** 0.904 9.39 *** 0.410 4.06 *** 0.297 2.84 ***
Least remote 0.612 6.44 *** 1.022 10.19 *** 0.510 4.91 *** 0.415 3.84 ***
Urban 0.102 2.46 ** 0.606 14.88 *** .. .. .. ..
2005Remoteness
Most remote 0.548 8.53 *** 0.718 10.42 *** 0.443 5.16 *** 0.317 3.67 ***
Q2 0.388 5.76 *** 0.520 7.26 *** 0.283 3.21 *** 0.119 1.34
Q3 0.435 6.77 *** 0.670 10.20 *** 0.329 3.84 *** 0.269 3.21 ***
Q4 0.516 8.47 *** 0.779 12.20 *** 0.410 4.93 *** 0.378 4.59 ***
Least remote 0.393 6.05 *** 0.696 10.35 *** 0.287 3.33 *** 0.295 3.47 ***
Urban 0.106 1.87 * 0.401 7.74 *** .. .. .. ..
Note: *, ** and *** indicate significance at the 90, 95 and 99 percent level of confidence, respectively.
Primary Secondary +Marginal Effect Difference Relative to Urban/Male-Headed HH
Primary Secondary +
Differential Marginal Effects of Land Holdings on Per Capita Consumption
Coeff. t-stat Coeff. t-stat Difference t-stat Difference t-stat
1999Gender of Household Head
Female temporary (spouse alive) 1.263 2.09 ** 0.791 1.40 0.918 1.50 0.506 0.89
Female permanent (no living spouse) 0.579 3.64 *** 0.464 3.64 *** 0.233 1.21 0.179 1.26
Male 0.346 3.15 *** 0.286 4.62 *** .. .. .. ..
2001Gender of Household Head
Female temporary (spouse alive) 0.430 3.90 *** 0.610 2.54 ** 0.197 1.33 0.260 1.06
Female permanent (no living spouse) 0.407 10.42 *** 0.433 5.02 *** 0.174 1.63 0.082 0.83
Male 0.233 2.35 ** 0.351 7.10 *** .. .. .. ..
2005Gender of Household Head
Female temporary (spouse alive) 0.174 1.08 -0.038 -0.26 0.022 0.12 -0.067 -0.44
Female permanent (no living spouse) 0.250 2.45 ** -0.014 -0.22 0.097 0.71 -0.043 -0.57
Male 0.153 1.65 * 0.029 0.72 .. .. .. ..
Note: *, ** and *** indicate significance at the 90, 95 and 99 percent level of confidence, respectively.
Marginal Effect Difference Relative to Urban/Male-Headed HH1- 5 HA 5+ HA 1- 5 HA 5+ HA
Differential Marginal Effects of Land Holdings on Per Capita Consumption
Coeff. t-stat Coeff. t-stat Difference t-stat Difference t-stat
1999Remoteness
Most remote 0.141 0.91 0.284 1.79 * -0.205 -1.08 -0.002 -0.01
Q2 0.402 2.55 ** 0.278 1.60 0.056 0.29 -0.008 -0.04
Q3 0.411 3.30 *** 0.353 2.72 *** 0.065 0.39 0.067 0.47
Q4 0.184 1.56 0.205 1.64 -0.162 -1.01 -0.081 -0.58
Least remote 0.206 1.94 * 0.252 2.27 ** -0.139 -0.91 -0.034 -0.27
Urban 0.346 3.15 *** 0.286 4.62 *** .. .. .. ..
2001Remoteness
Most remote 0.598 11.10 *** 0.863 8.33 *** 0.364 3.23 *** 0.513 4.46 ***
Q2 0.623 8.37 *** 0.805 7.67 *** 0.390 3.14 *** 0.454 3.92 ***
Q3 0.538 8.34 *** 0.838 7.25 *** 0.304 2.57 *** 0.487 3.88 ***
Q4 0.567 9.39 *** 0.619 6.10 *** 0.333 2.87 *** 0.269 2.38 **
Least remote 0.443 10.19 *** 0.868 8.80 *** 0.210 1.93 * 0.518 4.69 ***
Urban 0.233 2.35 ** 0.351 7.10 *** .. .. .. ..
2005Remoteness
Most remote 0.449 6.60 *** 0.616 8.18 *** 0.297 2.58 *** 0.587 6.88 ***
Q2 0.419 5.66 *** 0.467 5.85 *** 0.266 2.25 ** 0.438 4.91 ***
Q3 0.414 6.05 *** 0.606 8.46 *** 0.262 2.28 ** 0.578 7.03 ***
Q4 0.463 7.59 *** 0.560 8.08 *** 0.311 2.80 *** 0.531 6.64 ***
Least remote 0.164 2.46 ** 0.381 5.56 *** 0.011 0.10 0.353 4.44 ***
Urban 0.153 1.65 * 0.029 0.72 .. .. .. ..
Note: *, ** and *** indicate significance at the 90, 95 and 99 percent level of confidence, respectively.
1- 5 HA 5+ HAMarginal Effect Difference Relative to Urban/Male-Headed HH
1- 5 HA 5+ HA
ConclusionThree Key Messages
1. Core group of persistently poor households:• Uneducated• Land poor• Rural & remote• Female-headed
2. Vertical Inequalities within groups
3. Persistent horizontal inequalities associated with multiple different identities
• Some offsetting or even overcoming (women’s education)• Some reinforcing (land poor)
Conclusion
Policy implications:• Gender & Marital Status – what mechanisms?• Land redistribution – not politically feasible • Education & Remoteness – amenable to interventions• Targeted interventions
– Unidimensional vs. multidimensional– Education – offset gender & geographic disadvantages