Evidenced-Based Decision-Evidenced-Based Decision-Making: Coordinated Support Making: Coordinated Support

to Manage for Better to Manage for Better Development Results Development Results

Presented by Ms Michelle Gyles-McDonnough, Presented by Ms Michelle Gyles-McDonnough, Resident Coordinator of the UN System and Resident Resident Coordinator of the UN System and Resident

Representative, UNDP Barbados and the OECS Representative, UNDP Barbados and the OECS

July 30th, 2009

HIGH-LEVEL ADVOCACY FORUM ON STATISTICSPort-of-Spain, Trinidad and Tobago

Ideally, we should have Ideally, we should have Effective targeting of social investments Effective targeting of social investments

towards the neediest and most vulnerabletowards the neediest and most vulnerable Regular assessments of development progress Regular assessments of development progress

including MDG reports and HDR reportsincluding MDG reports and HDR reports Consolidated beneficiary system and Consolidated beneficiary system and

informationinformation Data in place for rapid deployment of crisis Data in place for rapid deployment of crisis

supportsupport Countries achieve MDG + and Vision 2020 Countries achieve MDG + and Vision 2020

To report and prove progress, we To report and prove progress, we needneed

Quantitative and qualitative dataQuantitative and qualitative data To understand the dimensions and To understand the dimensions and

manifestations of poverty and vulnerabilitymanifestations of poverty and vulnerability Prove that policies contributed to positive Prove that policies contributed to positive

social changesocial change Baselines for where we started and Baselines for where we started and

benchmarks for where we are goingbenchmarks for where we are going Data for trend analysisData for trend analysis To Monitor and evaluate – success or failureTo Monitor and evaluate – success or failure

Each country needs.........

Indicators and tools for assessing and monitoring

Information flow and communication Coordination Institutional leadership for monitoring Advocacy and buy-in

A Development Results system A Development Results system would be framed on: would be framed on:

POOR PEOPLE’S ASSET MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES

Human, Financial, Social, Natural and Physical assets

POLICIES, INSTITUTIONS AND PROCESSES

Empowerment

AccountabilityDemocracy

ParticipationSocial Movements

Community Organisations

Opportunity

JobsServicesMarkets

VULNERABILITY CONTEXT

TrendsShocks

Seasonality

Re-drawn from: Environmental Resource Management (2002), “Predicted Impact of Global Climate Change on Poverty and the Sustainable Achievement of the MDGs: Vol. 2”, DFID review, p.10.

The Sustainable Livelihoods Framework (SLF)

LIVELIHOOD OUTCOMES

IncomeWell-being

HealthSecurity

Taken from Perch, L., Murray R., Tincani, L.,(2007). Climate Change and Human Development: A policy Review for the Caribbean. Presented at Caribbean Conference on Climate Change. Jamaica. June.

But...............how much do we assess progress?

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 20031. Surveys of Living ConditionsJamaica × × × × × ×Trinidad and Tobago

× ×

Guyana × ×Barbados ×Belize × ×Saint Lucia ×St. Vincent & the Grenadines

×

Grenada ×St.Kitts and Nevis

×

Bahamas ×2. Labour Force SurveysSaint Lucia × × ×St. Vincent and the Grenadines

× × × ×

Dominica 1983 × ×Grenada3. Social SurveyMontserrat ×

Caribbean Countries

Implementation of Poverty Assessments 1993-2003

Progress...but work remains Progress...but work remains While indigence has declined significantly, poverty While indigence has declined significantly, poverty

has increased in some countries. has increased in some countries. Inequality remains highInequality remains high Climate change and disaster risk not well Climate change and disaster risk not well

integrated into broader development framework – integrated into broader development framework – HIV Statistics and reporting ,while improved, still HIV Statistics and reporting ,while improved, still

limited requires urgent attention (2008 CRIS limited requires urgent attention (2008 CRIS Reports)Reports)

multi-sectoral planning remains sporadicmulti-sectoral planning remains sporadic Vulnerability high amongst elderly, children, Vulnerability high amongst elderly, children,

womenwomen

Progress with MDG 1 up to 2005 Progress with MDG 1 up to 2005

Country

Poverty Indicators

Year CPA conducted

% below the poverty line

% below the indigence line

Poverty Gap FGT P2(Severity)

Barbados* 1997 13.9 - n.a. n.a

BelizeR 1996 33.0 13.4 8.7 4.3

Dominica**** 2002 39.0 15 - -

Grenada 1999 32.1 12.9 15.3 9.9

Guyana* 1999 35.0 19.0 12.4 n.a

Jamaica* 2001 16.8 n.a. n.a. n.a

NevisR 2000 32.0 17.0 2.8 1.0

St. KittsR 2000 30.5 11.0 2.5 0.9

St. LuciaR 1996 25.1 7.1 8.6 4.4

St. Vincent & the GrenadinesR

1996 37.5 25.7 12.6 6.9

Trinidad and Tobago*

1992 21.2 11.2 n.a. n.a.

Turks and Caicos IslandsR

1999 25.9 3.2 5.7 2.6

Source: Thomas & Wint (2002: p.5.); ® : CPAs conducted by CDB. **** World Bank, Dominica Social Protection Review (July 11, 2003) p.3

Poverty and Inequality in the OECS Poverty and Inequality in the OECS Country Poverty Indicators

Year CPA conducted

% below the poverty

line

% below the indigence

line

Poverty Gap Ratio

Gini coefficient

Anguilla (PPA started in February for new Assessment)

2002 23 2 6.9 0.31

Antigua and Barbuda

2006 18.4 5.0 6.6 0.49

British Virgin Islands

2003 22 0.5 4.1 0.23

Dominica**** 2002 39.0 15 10.2 0.35

Grenada (new data pending in 2009)

1999 32 12.9 15.3 -

St. Kitts & Nevis (new data pending in 2009)

2001 31.2 14 2.6 0.45

St. LuciaR 2005 28.8 7.1 98.0 0.42

St. Vincent & the Grenadines (new data pending in

2009)R

1996 37.5 25.7 12.6 0.56

External factorsExternal factors

A “A “perfect stormperfect storm” of events:” of events: Underlying Energy Crisis Escalating Underlying Energy Crisis Escalating energy crisis energy crisis

with implications also with competing interest of with implications also with competing interest of food production and bio-fuels for land resourcesfood production and bio-fuels for land resources

Rapid Rapid climate change and intense climate climate change and intense climate variability variability [evidenced by intense storm activity, [evidenced by intense storm activity, repetitive storms (September 2008), persistent rain repetitive storms (September 2008), persistent rain (October 2008)](October 2008)]

Global financial crisis Global financial crisis – resulting in home losses, – resulting in home losses, tightening of credit, downturn in markets, lack of tightening of credit, downturn in markets, lack of confidence confidence

Food crisis Food crisis – global food security under threat by – global food security under threat by high commodity prices, drought & other issueshigh commodity prices, drought & other issues

Likely impacts of the Economic Crisis

Poverty and vulnerability are likely to deepen [For example, For example, in Antigua and Barbuda, 13.3 % of percent of persons living in Antigua and Barbuda, 13.3 % of percent of persons living below the poverty line worked more than 40 hours, many of below the poverty line worked more than 40 hours, many of them in more than one job and in the informal sector. them in more than one job and in the informal sector. ]

Under-employment and unemployment expected to worsen [anecdotal data suggests some households may have both parents now without employment]

Intensified gender inequities at the household level with knock-on effects on children’s education, nutrition and maternal and child health

Government expenditure on social assistance/protection could tighten up [countries in OECS reporting loss of revenue 10-20%]

In the absence of consistent approaches, how In the absence of consistent approaches, how can you:can you:

Really know who is poor and the scope of their Really know who is poor and the scope of their poverty?poverty?

Who needs what type of help and when?Who needs what type of help and when? What investments are needed to mitigate the What investments are needed to mitigate the

economic crisis?economic crisis? What types of programmes really work and are worth What types of programmes really work and are worth

the investment?the investment? When programmes need to be changed and are no When programmes need to be changed and are no

longer valid?longer valid? What change has been achieved?What change has been achieved? Prove to development partners, the return on their Prove to development partners, the return on their

investments?investments?

Support to Poverty Assessment and Support to Poverty Assessment and Reduction in the Caribbean (SPARC) : Reduction in the Caribbean (SPARC) :

Overarching Goal:Overarching Goal: To assist governments to design To assist governments to design

and implement a planning and implement a planning framework that speaks to the framework that speaks to the specific needs of the vulnerable specific needs of the vulnerable and the disadvantaged in and the disadvantaged in reducing poverty and enhancing reducing poverty and enhancing social development.social development.

… … is designed to facilitate multi-is designed to facilitate multi-

donor programming to deliver a donor programming to deliver a comprehensive package of comprehensive package of assistance to Caribbean countries assistance to Caribbean countries to strengthen national and to strengthen national and regional capacities to regional capacities to systematically collect, analyze systematically collect, analyze and disseminate social data for and disseminate social data for poverty assessment as well as poverty assessment as well as critically inform social policy critically inform social policy formulation. formulation.

How does SPARC do its work? Technical Assistance Donor coordination through the Programme Steering

Cttee and the Poverty and Social Sector Development Donor Group (PSSDDG)

Builds on and links into the work of UN system Advocacy – around Sustainable Human Development,

Poverty Reduction, M&E, Social Vulnerability Resource Mobilization – both human and financial

[e.g. identification of MDG Champions for Barbados and the OECS]; collaboration with the World Bank on Data Anonymization

Research and Response – Expanding the knowledge base and understanding particularly between issues e.g. mainstreaming, crisis response and PSIA – testing new tools.

SPARC enhanced coordination SPARC enhanced coordination on Poverty and MDG monitoringon Poverty and MDG monitoring

An outcome from the Poverty and Social An outcome from the Poverty and Social Sector Development Donor Group (PSSDDG) Sector Development Donor Group (PSSDDG) of the Eastern Caribbean Development Group, of the Eastern Caribbean Development Group, SPARC is a partnership of : SPARC is a partnership of :

UNDP, CDB, World Bank, IDB, CIDA, UNDP, CDB, World Bank, IDB, CIDA, OECS/SPU, UN/ECLAC, DfID, UNIFEM, OECS/SPU, UN/ECLAC, DfID, UNIFEM,

EU/EC, UNESCO, UNICEF, ILOEU/EC, UNESCO, UNICEF, ILO

SPARC promotes social SPARC promotes social dimensions of vulnerability dimensions of vulnerability

Exposure to natural disaster

Nation

(Individual,

Household or

Community)

Social Susceptibility Social Resilience

Measure of social vulnerability

Source: ECLAC (2005 Presentation on Social Vulnerability and the PRSPs

SPARC –systematic approach to SPARC –systematic approach to Monitoring for Development Monitoring for Development

CWIQ, AD

(Annual)

CPA/SLC/PPA linkedwithHBS

LSMS(every 4-5 years)

Census (every 10 years)Local Administrative Data

Tools for measuring the depth Tools for measuring the depth and determinants of poverty and determinants of poverty (Understanding)(Understanding)

HBS, LSMS etc., Participative HBS, LSMS etc., Participative Poverty Monitoring (listening to Poverty Monitoring (listening to the poor)the poor)

Tools for comparing differences Tools for comparing differences over space (Targeting)over space (Targeting)

Local admin. recordsLocal admin. records Pop. Census + Hhold survey = Pop. Census + Hhold survey =

Poverty mapsPoverty maps Tools for monitoring changes Tools for monitoring changes

over time (Tracking)over time (Tracking) service delivery monitoringservice delivery monitoring Administrative data/MIS; Administrative data/MIS;

Institution-based surveys; Institution-based surveys; household surveys, CWIQhousehold surveys, CWIQ

Information Pyramid

Through SPARC framework: Biennial sub-regional HDRs for the OECS will be

supported linked to CPAs and CWIQs PSIA is rolled out as a tool for assessing policy

reform impacts and monitoring results on poverty and social development [admin data critical]

Localizing of the MDGs is promoted– Reports available for Saint Lucia, Dominica, St. Kitts and Nevis, BVI, Barbados. Anguilla and Antigua and Barbuda pending

Capacity development enabled on survey design, sampling methodology, analysis and interpretation, MDG strategic thinking, Data Anonymization [later through WB/Paris 21 ADP]

SPARC – Systemization of Social Data SPARC – Systemization of Social Data Collection towards 2015Collection towards 2015

Countries Country Poverty Assessments (CPA)*

Core Welfare Indicators Questionnaire (CWIQ)

Poverty Reduction Strategies (PRS)

Anguilla 2007 2012 2010 2011 Antigua & Barbuda 2007 2008 2007 Barbados 2007 2013 2010 2011 Belize 2008 2013 2009 2011 British Virgin Islands 2008 2013 2011 2009 Cayman Islands 2007 2012 2009/10 2008 Dominica 2008 2012 2009 2011 Grenada 2007 2008 (tentative) Montserrat 2007 2012 2010 2011 St. Kitts & Nevis 2007 2012 2010 2008 St. Lucia 2007 2012 2008 2007 St. Vincent & the Grenadines

2007 2013 2010 2009 (interim)

Turks & Caicos Islands

2008 2013 2009 2009

*Efforts will include harmonization between the CPA and the CWIQ including some core questions for monitoring

Building Sustained Capacity Building Sustained Capacity Poverty and MDG Toolkit for the Caribbean Poverty and MDG Toolkit for the Caribbean Support to MSc in Development Statistics Support to MSc in Development Statistics Advocacy for linking poverty assessments to Advocacy for linking poverty assessments to

HIV/AIDS and improved gender analysis HIV/AIDS and improved gender analysis South-South Cooperation – linking capacity South-South Cooperation – linking capacity

from MS to MS – National Assessment from MS to MS – National Assessment Teams, poverty mappingTeams, poverty mapping

Data dissemination through DevInfoData dissemination through DevInfo More recently – with ILO through support to More recently – with ILO through support to

labour market information labour market information

Looking forward – we need resources Looking forward – we need resources for and action on: for and action on:

Real and sustained focus on social change and Real and sustained focus on social change and transformation through:transformation through: Social Risk ManagementSocial Risk Management Knowledge management Knowledge management Addressing Inequality and Poverty ReductioAddressing Inequality and Poverty Reduction n Expanding Social ProtectionExpanding Social Protection Harmonization across data instruments, Harmonization across data instruments,

systems and policy frameworkssystems and policy frameworks

Social Risk ManagementSocial Risk Management

Moving beyond crisis response to a long-term Moving beyond crisis response to a long-term approach to enhance equality and resilience approach to enhance equality and resilience requiring capacity for :requiring capacity for : Coping [short-term and situational]Coping [short-term and situational] Prevention [understanding and resolving causes of Prevention [understanding and resolving causes of

vulnerability and reducing riskvulnerability and reducing risk Mitigation – building resilience, putting response Mitigation – building resilience, putting response

plans in place and identifying alternative plans in place and identifying alternative approachesapproaches

Poverty and Inequality - Poverty and Inequality - Strengthening Analysis Strengthening Analysis

Both the state of poverty as well as Both the state of poverty as well as disadvantage and social discriminationdisadvantage and social discrimination

Price information linked to wages – capacity to Price information linked to wages – capacity to provide for basic needs?provide for basic needs?

Data on persons with disabilities, infected and Data on persons with disabilities, infected and affected by HIVaffected by HIV

Labour market outcomes from investment in Labour market outcomes from investment in educationeducation

Gender analysisGender analysis

Social Protection and InclusionSocial Protection and Inclusion

Clear institutional frameworks for Clear institutional frameworks for social protectionsocial protection

Effective coordination & information-Effective coordination & information-sharing between government agenciessharing between government agencies

Commitment over the long-term by Commitment over the long-term by successive governments and leadershipsuccessive governments and leadership

Transparent beneficiary information Transparent beneficiary information systemssystems

Harmonization of ............Harmonization of ............ Methodologies for MDG reportingMethodologies for MDG reporting Concepts and policiesConcepts and policies Data collection instruments – Country Poverty Data collection instruments – Country Poverty

Assessment (CPA), Core Welfare Indicator Assessment (CPA), Core Welfare Indicator Questionnaire (CWIQ), Multiple Indicator Questionnaire (CWIQ), Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey (MICS), Labour Force Surveys Cluster Survey (MICS), Labour Force Surveys (LFS) & the identification of core questions to (LFS) & the identification of core questions to be monitored across all Household surveysbe monitored across all Household surveys

Management Information Systems vs sectoral Management Information Systems vs sectoral M&E frameworksM&E frameworks

Coordination Strengthen links between SPARC and CARTAC to

enhance socio-economic planning frameworks and risk management approaches

Joint support by donor partners to strengthening social protection systems

Strengthen work on climate change and DRR by focusing on resilience building at the social level

Support capacity development in the soft skills – communication, leadership, partnerships including publi/private sector partnership

Capacity building of NGOs to participate in development monitoring

THANK YOU!!!