Adaptation to climate change in low to middle income countries

Evidence gap map

Presenter: Luis Sánchez Torrente, AAE

Co-authors: Doswald, N., Reumann, A., Leppert, G., Moull, K., Köngeter, A., Fernández de Velasco, G. & Puri, J.

• Important to evaluate which adaptation measures, actions, and interventions have proved to be effective in increasing resilience and reducing climate risk.

• Evidence is often scattered around different websites, grey literature, and databases and there is a lack of comprehensive and systematic synthesis.

Introduction

Evidence Gap Map (EGM)

Evidence Gap Maps• A systematic presentation of relevant and available empirical

evidence.

• It collates, codes and configures all available evidence relevant to a question.– Clearly defined question (PICO)

– Framework/Matrix of outcomes (y-axis) and interventions/areas/sectors/fields/instruments (x-axis)

– Systematic search protocol and inclusion/exclusion criteria

• Specific map: Evidence on climate change adaptation– High quality evidence related to interventions and outcomes/impacts of

climate change adaptation action.

– IEU/GCF, DEval & Asesoramiento Ambiental Estratégico (AAE)

– Question: What is the state of the evidence base regarding the ability of adaptation interventions to help people in low to middle income countries adapt to the impacts of climate change?

Question of the EGM and PICO

What is the state of the evidence base regarding the abilityof adaptation interventions to help people in low to middle income countries adapt to the impacts of climate change?

POPULATION INTERVENTION COMPARATOR OUTCOME

Human individuals, groups,

communities, institutions,

systems and economic

sectors (water, transport,

infrastructure, agriculture,

forestry, etc...) in low to

middle income countries.

Those that aim to

adjust, reduce, stop or

make use of the

benefits of an impact

from a direct change in

climate or a climatic

hazard.

No adaptation

intervention,

different levels of

intervention or

comparison of

different

interventions.

Human adaptation to

climate change,

variability, extremes or

other natural hazards

that could be linked to

climate.

Study type and Filters

Study type• Studies supported on quantitative or mixed-

methods evidence : systematic review, Correlationanalyses and impact evaluations.

Filters• Countries: low to middle income based on OECD • Languages: english, french, spanish and german• Publication years: 2007-2018• Publication type: only peer-review articles & grey

literature

Framework: Definitions & Concept

Exposure; impact from hazards; adaptive capacity; enabling environment

Climate Change Adaptation (CCA) is the process of "adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects, which moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities"

(UNFCCC 2018)

Framework

Uptake Shocks and stressors Adaptive capacity Enabling Environment

Adoption Decreased

Exposure

Decreased

Impacts/Risks

Social

benefits

Economic

benefits

Environmental

systems

Socio-

economic

systems

Institutional

systems

Population

affected by

extreme

weather

events

Proactive and

reactive risk

management; climate

related illness;

deaths; food security

Skills

acquired,

access,

awareness

Livelihood

diversification,

productivitiy

gains, access

Area protected,

ecological

services improved

Social capital

enhanced,

overall

poverty

measurements

Policy changes,

regulations

approved,

institutional

reform

Nature-Based Options

Built Infrastructure / StructuralTechnological Options

Informational/ Research

Institutional/ Planning/ Policy/ Laws/ RegulationsFinancial/ Market Mechanisms

Social/ Behavioural

Sect

or/

Inte

rven

tio

ns

Outcomes

Sectors1. Water2. Built environment & Land-use3. Agriculture, Forestry &

Fishing4. Society, Economy and Health

Sector Nature based solutionsWater Wetland restoration; water conservation; river restoration;

nature weirs; integrated water management; watershed management

Land-use and Built Environment

Restoration; conservation; sustainable management; mangroves, sand dunes or marshes for coastal protection; integrated coastal zone management; green roofs/walls; green infrastructure; green and blue space in cities

Forestry,

Fishing and

Agriculture

Intercropping, conservation agriculture, changing planting dates; agroforestry; conservation tillage, bunds, traditional seeds/varieties; rain-fed irrigation; crop rotation; sustainable forestry and fishing

Society, Economy and Health

Nature management for vector control; nature-based/ecological livelihood diversification

Nature based solutions

Inclusion/exclusion flow chart

Databases:N= 9956

After Duplicates removed:N= 13,121 (+3931 GeL)

Grey literature:N= 4482

Exclude books, book sections and conference proceedings:

N= 377

Studies retained for screening abstract & title

N= 12,744 (+3931 GeL)

(German literature (GeL):N= 3931)

Inclusion/exclusion flow chart

Studies retained for inclusion:N= 463

Studies retained for full text screeningN= 908

Studies retained for screening abstract & title

N= 12,744 (+3931 GeL)

Excluded after abstract & titleN= 11,836 (+3931 GeL)

Unavailable papersN= 6 (2)

ExcludedN= 437

(reasons include: paper in Chinese; qualitative or descriptive study;

repeated study; not CCA; no intervention or outcome; not OECD

country; purely lab study; simulation or predictive study)

1,042 individual pieces of evidence

Results: Region & countries

East Asia & Pacific22% Central Asia

0%

Latin America & Caribbean

6%

Middle East & North Africa

2%

South Asia22%

Sub-Saharan Africa40%

Global/multiregion8%

World bank region

Country

Number of single-

country research papers

China 59

India 50

Ethiopia 37

Bangladesh 22

Kenya 21

Pakistan 17

Nigeria 16

Vietnam 14

Malawi 12

South Africa 12

GapmapClimate change adaptation Uptake Shocks and stressors Adaptive capacity Enabling environment

SECTORSINTERVENTION/OUTCOMES Adoption

Decreased

Exposure

Decreased

Impacts/Risks

Social

benefits

Economic

benefits

Environmental

systems

Socioeconomic

systems

Institutional

systems

Example specific outcomes

indicatorsPopulation

affected by

extreme

weather

events

Proactive and

reactive risk

management;

climate related

illness; deaths;

food security

Skills acquired,

access,

awareness

Livelihood

diversification,

productivitiy gains,

access

Area protected,

ecological services

improved

Social capital

enhanced, overall

poverty

measurements

Policy changes,

regulations

approved,

institutional

reform

Water Nature-Based Options 1 3 3Built Infrastructure / Structural 1 1 11 2 9 3 2Technological Options 1 1 1Informational/ Educational 2 3 1 1Institutional/ Planning/ Policy/ Laws/

Regulations 1 3 1 2Financial/ Market Mechanisms 1 1 2

Social/Behavioural 1 1 1 1 1Land-use and

Built

Environment

Nature-Based Options 1 14 4 1 3 2 1Built Infrastructure / Structural 3 4 4 5 3 1Technological Options 1 3Informational/ Educational 3 4 1 3Institutional/ Planning/ Policy/ Laws/

Regulations 2 3 2 1 4 4 2 2Financial/ Market Mechanisms 2 2 1 2Social/Behavioural 1 1 5 3 2 2 1

Forestry,

Fishing and

Agriculture

Nature-Based Options 3 2 29 2 105 34 8Built Infrastructure / Structural ] 5 1 9 1Technological Options 7 2 19 2 101 16 6Informational/ Educational 77 1 8 9 19 5 5Institutional/ Planning/ Policy/ Laws/

Regulations 14 3 1 5 3Financial/ Market Mechanisms 44 2 6 4 15 4 6Social/Behavioural 36 5 3 19 4 3

Society,

Economy and

Health

Nature-Based Options 1 3 1Built Infrastructure / Structural 1 9 3Technological Options 8 1Informational/ Educational 9 3 11 8 2 1Institutional/ Planning/ Policy/ Laws/

Regulations 2 1 14 4 2 2Financial/ Market Mechanisms 5 1 26 1 14 1 5 1

Social/Behavioural 13 2 25 5 17 1 6 3

0

1-5

6-20

21-60

61-80

80+

Observations

Gaps in EGM• Latin American Studies• Sectors: Water or built environment sector• Interventions: depends on sector – fairely equal overall• Outcomes: exposure and enabling environmentConcentration of studies in EGM• Sub-saharan African Studies• Sectors: Agriculture• Interventions: Conservation agriculture, irrigation and

fertiliser, types of crops, extension services• Outcomes: Adoption and economic benefits (yield, income)

Gapmap (Africa)0

1-4

5-9

11-20

+20EVIDENCE GAP MAP Uptake Shocks and stressors Adaptive capacity Enabling environment

SECTORS

INTERVENTION/OUTCOMES AdoptionDecreased exposure

Decreased Impacts/Risks

Social benefitsEconomic benefits

Environmental systems

Socioeconomic systems

Institutional systems

Example specific outcomes

indicatorsUptake

Population affected by extreme weather

events

Proactive and reactive risk management;

climate related illness; deaths; food

security

Skills acquired, access, awareness

Livelihood diversification,

productivitiy gains, access

Area protected, ecological services

improved

Social capital enhanced, overall

poverty measurements

Policy changes, regulations approved,

institutional reform

Water Nature-Based Options1 1

Built Infrastructure / Structural2 1 2 1 2

Technological Options1

Informational/ Educational2 1

Institutional/ Planning/ Policy/ Laws/ Regulations 1 1 1Financial/ Market Mechanisms

1Social/Behavioural

Land-use and Built Environment

Nature-Based Options1 2 1 1

Built Infrastructure / Structural1

Technological Options

Informational/ Educational1

Institutional/ Planning/ Policy/ Laws/ Regulations 1 1 1 2 1 1Financial/ Market Mechanisms

1 1Social/Behavioural

1 1

Forestry, Fishing and Agriculture

Nature-Based Options1 2 17 1 52 17 5

Built Infrastructure / Structural4 3 4

Technological Options4 1 10 45 6 4

Informational/ Educational47 1 4 3 6 1 3

Institutional/ Planning/ Policy/ Laws/ Regulations 8 2 1 1Financial/ Market Mechanisms

27 2 4 1 6 1 4Social/Behavioural

19 4 7 2 1

Society, Economy and Health

Nature-Based Options1

Built Infrastructure / Structural3

Technological Options2 1

Informational/ Educational3 2 1 1 1

Institutional/ Planning/ Policy/ Laws/ Regulations 1 4 1 1Financial/ Market Mechanisms

1 10 5 1Social/Behavioural

6 1 5 3 10 5 2

184Papers

438Evidences

103Evidences on NBO

62Papers on NBO

Results for Africa: number of papersaddressing NBO

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16

Botswana

Democratic Republic of Congo

Gambia

Madagascar

Mauritius

Senegal

Benin

Burkina Fasso

Cameroon

Mozambique

Uganda

Zambia

Niger

Tanzania

Ghana

Zimbabwe

South Africa

Malawi

Kenya

Ethiopia

Results for Africa: the weight of NBO

WaterLand-use and

Built EnvironmentForestry, Fishingand Agriculture

Society, Economyand Health

Total

Social/Behavioural 2 33 32 67

Financial/ Market Mechanisms 1 2 45 17 65

Institutional/ Planning/ Policy/ Laws/ 3 7 12 7 29

Informational/ Educational 3 1 65 8 77

Technological Options 1 70 3 74

Built Infrastructure / Structural 8 1 11 3 23

Nature-Based Options 2 5 95 1 103

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Social/Behavioural

Financial/ MarketMechanisms

Institutional/ Planning/Policy/ Laws/

Informational/ Educational

Technological Options

Built Infrastructure /Structural

Nature-Based Options

NBO: Sectors and outcomes (Africa)

WaterLand-use and Built

EnvironmentForestry, Fishing and

AgricultureSociety, Economy and

Health

Enabling environment 2 22

Adaptive capacity 2 2 53 1

Shocks and stressors 1 19

Uptake 1

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Enablingenvironment

Adaptivecapacity

Shocks andstressors

Uptake

NBO: Outcome sub-groups (Africa)

Adoption1%

Decreased exposure

3%

Decreased Impacts/Risks

17%

Social benefits3%

Economic benefits53%

Environmental systems

17%

Socioeconomic systems

6%

Common outcome indicators for NBO

Adoption

Decreased

exposure

Decreased

Impacts/Risks Social benefits Economic benefits

Environmental

systems

Socioeconomic

systems• Crop

choice

• Exposure to

climate change

• Wave

attenuation

•Climate

vulnerability

index

•Food Security

(Different

measures and

indexes)

• Hazard related

economic

damage

•Livelihood

resilience to

droghts and

floods

•Nutrition

indexes and

measures

•Perceived

effectiveness

by population

•Access to

water

• Agricultural return of

investment

• Agricultural yield

• Agricultural income

• Crop productivity

• Economic

sustainability

• Farm productivity,

household wealth

• Biodiversity

conservation

(number of native

varieties)

• Control of pests

• Environmental

quality indexes

• Shoreline response,

ecosystem services

• Soil and nutrient

characteristics

• Water productivity

• Poverty indexes

• Resilience indexes

• Social

Capital/Sustainability

•Wealth Index

Effectiveness vs Adoption

❖ An Evidence Gap Map does not tell us whether measures are being effective or not

❖ But only in which areas there is research available

❖ Even if we know that certain measures are effective, how do we know people have access to them?

We are currently investigating the role of credit in helping people adopt adaptation measures (meta-

analysis)

GapmapClimate change adaptation Uptake Shocks and stressors Adaptive capacity Enabling environment

SECTORSINTERVENTION/OUTCOMES Adoption

Decreased

Exposure

Decreased

Impacts/Risks

Social

benefits

Economic

benefits

Environmental

systems

Socioeconomic

systems

Institutional

systems

Example specific outcomes

indicatorsPopulation

affected by

extreme

weather

events

Proactive and

reactive risk

management;

climate related

illness; deaths;

food security

Skills acquired,

access,

awareness

Livelihood

diversification,

productivitiy gains,

access

Area protected,

ecological services

improved

Social capital

enhanced, overall

poverty

measurements

Policy changes,

regulations

approved,

institutional

reform

Water Nature-Based Options 1 3 3Built Infrastructure / Structural 1 1 11 2 9 3 2Technological Options 1 1 1Informational/ Educational 2 3 1 1Institutional/ Planning/ Policy/ Laws/

Regulations 1 3 1 2Financial/ Market Mechanisms 1 1 2

Social/Behavioural 1 1 1 1 1Land-use and

Built

Environment

Nature-Based Options 1 14 4 1 3 2 1Built Infrastructure / Structural 3 4 4 5 3 1Technological Options 1 3Informational/ Educational 3 4 1 3Institutional/ Planning/ Policy/ Laws/

Regulations 2 3 2 1 4 4 2 2Financial/ Market Mechanisms 2 2 1 2Social/Behavioural 1 1 5 3 2 2 1

Forestry,

Fishing and

Agriculture

Nature-Based Options 3 2 29 2 105 34 8Built Infrastructure / Structural ] 5 1 9 1Technological Options 7 2 19 2 101 16 6Informational/ Educational 77 1 8 9 19 5 5Institutional/ Planning/ Policy/ Laws/

Regulations 14 3 1 5 3Financial/ Market Mechanisms 44 2 6 4 15 4 6Social/Behavioural 36 5 3 19 4 3

Society,

Economy and

Health

Nature-Based Options 1 3 1Built Infrastructure / Structural 1 9 3Technological Options 8 1Informational/ Educational 9 3 11 8 2 1Institutional/ Planning/ Policy/ Laws/

Regulations 2 1 14 4 2 2Financial/ Market Mechanisms 5 1 26 1 14 1 5 1

Social/Behavioural 13 2 25 5 17 1 6 3

0

1-5

6-20

21-60

61-80

80+

36 papers

146 regressions

Does access to credit help farmers adopt adaptation measures?

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1

++++

+++

++

+

-

--

---

----

Does access to credit help farmers adopt adaptation measures?

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Asia and LA Africa

++++

+++

++

+

-

--

---

----

Does access to credit help farmers adopt adaptation measures?

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Adapted crop varieties Crop diversification/switching

++++

+++

++

+

-

--

---

----

Some take-home messages1) There are significant research efforts on the effectiveness of climate

change adaptation measures

2) NBO in the agricultural sector take a large share of the quantitative evidence (also technological options)

3) A significant share of the evidence was collected in Africa

4) Much of the available evidence on NBO inspects on its economic benefits in the agricultural sector (income, profitability, yield, productivity, etc.)

5) NBO in the agricultural sector include agroforestry, conservation agriculture, crop diversification, etc.

6) Meta-analysis is needed to determine whether evidence is conclusive or not

7) There are mixed results when testing on the effect of access to credit in the encouragement of adaptation measures uptake

Thank you!