Building an evidence base for climate change adaptation in agriculture

Philippines

Outline

Getting evidence-based lessons from the field into sectoral/cross-

sectoral development planning (based on previous and on-going

DA and FAO work)

Linking DRR and CCA in the Agriculture and Fisheries Sector

Framework for Building Climate-Resilient Livelihoods and

Communities

Enhanced Climate Change Adaptation Capacity of

Communities in Contiguous Fragile Ecosystems in

the Cordilleras

Homestead Gardening (Integrated Food Systems)

Homestead Gardening (Integrated Food Systems)

Ability of the Good Practice CCA Option to Increase Resilience to Climate Change

a) Ability to address slow onsetting climate change impacts: Medium

b) Ability to reduce risk and impact of climate variability and extreme weather

events (and other hazards): High

c) Ability to enhance livelihood security: High

WIBI Mindanao Project

Addressing the Linkage Between Climate Change and Food Security

12

34

51

23

45

12

34

5

1950 2000 20501950 2000 2050

1950 2000 2050

Aurora Bataan Bulacan

Nueva Ecija Pampanga Tarlac

Zambales

yield Linear prediction

y_20c3m y_a2

y_a1b

yie

ld in

mt/h

a

year

Graphs by prov

Irrigated Rice Yield (Jul-Dec) in Region 3

2026-2030 2011-2030 2026-2030 2011-2030

BCM2

Farmgate Price 14.870 30.199 23.342 29.573 23.062

CNCM3

Farmgate Price 14.870 29.927 23.484 28.927 23.068

MPEH5

Farmgate Price 14.870 29.430 22.980 29.594 23.317

Global Circulation

ModelsBase (2010 for price)

PAM Model Projection (2011-2030)

A1B Scenario A2 Scenario

Hydrology:

Surface Water Availability for

Agriculture under CC

Crops:

Rice and Corn Yields under CC

Economy:

Farmgate prices under CC

Climate Projections

Philippines: National Context

Climate/ Disaster Risk Management and

Sustainable Development

Increased resilience

of livelihoods to

shocks

APPLY PREVENTION AND

MITIGATION MEASURES:

WATCH TO SAFEGUARD:

ENABLE THE

ENVIRONMENT:

PREPARE and RESPOND:

What we do on DRR and Resilience

Getting evidence-based lessons from the field into sectoral/cross-sectoral

development planning

Collation of conventional, locally upgraded and

scientifically-introduced good practice options (GPOs)

Synthesizing into potentially suitable GPOs for

location and hazard specific conditions

Scientific validation of adaptation options

Local prioritization/selection of GPOs

Vu

lner

abili

ty

Ass

essm

ent

Field-testing; Monitoring and evaluation;

with consideration of both climate-related risks and

hazards

Seasonal Assessments

Ca

rrie

d o

ut

at

va

rio

us

le

ve

ls:

Re

gio

na

l, P

rovin

cia

l, M

un

icip

al, a

nd

Co

mm

un

ity

DRR and CCA

iterative

How do you translate

uncertainty into

calculable risk?

Linking DRR and CCA in the Agriculture and Fisheries Sector

Priority Area 1: UNDERSTANDING RISK

Strategic Plan of Action for DRR

in Agriculture and Fisheries

Adaptation and Mitigation Initiative

in Agriculture (AMIA)

Enhance disaster risk reduction management (DRRM) information systems, geospatial systems and related databases

Enhance Monitoring and Early Warning Systems (EWS) of multiple threats

Priority 2 ENABLE ENVIRONMENT: Strengthen disaster risk reduction governance

Mainstream agriculture and fisheries sectoral developmental goals with DRR, CCA and sustainable land management (SLM) considerations into the Provincial Physical Framework Plan (PPFP) in the case of the province and the Comprehensive Land Use Plan (CLUP).

Promote DRR and CCA service delivery and practice

Development of Standardized VA tools – GIS & PVA;

Verification and development of decision support tools

Integrated Climate risk/Multi-hazard/crop suitability maps

Enhancement of Climate Information Systems for A&F

Landscape Planning Policy

CCA - Agriculture and Fisheries Financing Program

Linking DRR and CCA in the Agriculture and Fisheries Sector

Strategic Plan of Action for DRR

in Agriculture and Fisheries

Adaptation and Mitigation Initiative

in Agriculture (AMIA)

Reduce existing risks and prevent future risks in production systems and food chains;

Make farmers and fisherfolks more resilient through sustainable use of natural resources, and the adoption of appropriate technological and socio-economic practices and approaches.

Priority Area 3 REDUCE DISASTER RISKS FOR RESILIENCE Reduce underlying risk factors and build resilience

Formulating policies for building climate resilience

Establishment of model areas for implementing measures/practices/technologies for building community and livelihood resilience (climate)

AMIA Framework for Building Climate-Resilient Livelihoods and Communities

1. Establishing enabling environment (mainstreamed policies/practices, strengthened capacities, identified emerging opportunities)

2. Vulnerability assessment and risk targeting (key risks identified with exposure and adaptive capacity assessed)

3. Developing

knowledge

pool of CRA

options (comprehensive

resource pool of

CRA innovations)

6. Integrating CRAs within

agri-food systems and value

chains (resilience-driven

livelihoods)

7. CRA actions and outcomes

at-scale (implementation within and

across regions/systems)

5. Enhancing

services and

institutions (improved access

and local

relevance)

9. Program management and partnership platforms (high-performing teams and alliances)

8. Knowledge

management

for results (use-oriented

M&E and

evidence-based

decision-support)

4. CRA community action-

learning: initial phase (field-validated models and

innovations)

weather/climate information

services to enhance understanding

of risk and uncertainty

Stronger M&E for DRR

and CCA

Learning from previous/on-going

work/low hanging fruits

disaster risks/CC risks

Agriculture and Fisheries Modernization Plan for 2017-2023

Philippine Development Plan 2016 - 2022

Evidence for NAPS